Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Gross primary productivity and transpiration flux of the Australian vegetation from 1788 to 1988 AD: effects of CO2 and land use change

We present a novel approach to estimating the transpiration flux and gross primary productivity (GPP) from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, leaf functional types, and readily available climate data. We use this approach to explore the impact of variations in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ([CO₂]) and consequent predicted changes in vegetation cover, on the transpiration flux and GPP. There was a near 1 : 1 relationship between GPP estimated with this transpiration flux approach and that estimated using a radiation‐use efficiency (RUE) approach. Model estimates are presented for the Australian continent under three vegetation–[CO₂] scenarios: the present vegetation and hypothetical ‘natural’ vegetation cover with atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) of 350 μmol mol^?1 (pveg₃₅₀ and nveg₃₅₀), and for the ‘natural’ vegetation with [CO₂] 280 μmol mol^?1 (nveg₂₈₀). Estimated continental GPP is 6.5, 6.3 and 4.3 Gt C yr^?1 for pveg₃₅₀, nveg₃₅₀ and nveg₂₈₀, respectively_. The corresponding transpiration fluxes are 232, 224 and 190 mm H₂O yr^?1. The contribution of the raingreen and evergreen components of the canopy to these fluxes are also estimated.     

A global change-induced biome shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain)

Shifts in plant species and biome distribution in response to warming have been described in past climate changes. However, reported evidence of such shifts under current climate change is still scarce. By comparing current and 1945 vegetation distribution in the Montseny mountains (Catalonia, NE Spain), we report here a progressive replacement of cold‐temperate ecosystems by Mediterranean ecosystems. Beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest has shifted altitudinally upwards by ca. 70 m at the highest altitudes (1600–1700 m). Both the beech forests and the heather (Calluna vulgaris) heathlands are being replaced by holm oak (Quercus ilex) forest at medium altitudes (800–1400 m). This beech replacement has been observed to occur through a progressive isolation and degradation of beech stands. In ‘isolated’ (small and surrounded by holm oaks) beech stands, beech trees are 30% more defoliated, beech recruitment is 41% lower, and holm oak recruitment is three times higher than in ‘continental’ (large and continuous) beech stands. The progressively warmer conditions, complemented by the land use changes (mainly the cessation of traditional land management) are the apparent causes, providing a paradigmatic example of global change affecting distributions of plant species and biomes.     

Change in terrestrial ecosystem water‐use efficiency over the last three decades

Defined as the ratio between gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), ecosystem‐scale water‐use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of the adjustment of vegetation photosynthesis to water loss. The processes controlling EWUE are complex and reflect both a slow evolution of plants and plant communities as well as fast adjustments of ecosystem functioning to changes of limiting resources. In this study, we investigated EWUE trends from 1982 to 2008 using data‐driven models derived from satellite observations and process‐oriented carbon cycle models. Our findings suggest positive EWUE trends of 0.0056, 0.0007 and 0.0001 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1 under the single effect of rising CO₂ (‘CO₂’), climate change (‘CLIM’) and nitrogen deposition (‘NDEP’), respectively. Global patterns of EWUE trends under different scenarios suggest that (i) EWUE‐CO₂ shows global increases, (ii) EWUE‐CLIM increases in mainly high latitudes and decreases at middle and low latitudes, (iii) EWUE‐NDEP displays slight increasing trends except in west Siberia, eastern Europe, parts of North America and central Amazonia. The data‐driven MTE model, however, shows a slight decline of EWUE during the same period (?0.0005 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1), which differs from process‐model (0.0064 g C m^?2 mm^?1 yr^?1) simulations with all drivers taken into account. We attribute this discrepancy to the fact that the nonmodeled physiological effects of elevated CO₂ reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration (TR) in the MTE model. Partial correlation analysis between EWUE and climate drivers shows similar responses to climatic variables with the data‐driven model and the process‐oriented models across different ecosystems. Change in water‐use efficiency defined from transpiration‐based WUE_t (GPP/TR) and inherent water‐use efficiency (IWUE_t, GPP×VPD/TR) in response to rising CO₂, climate change, and nitrogen deposition are also discussed. Our analyses will facilitate mechanistic understanding of the carbon–water interactions over terrestrial ecosystems under global change.     

Divergent pheromone-mediated insect behaviour under global atmospheric change

While the effects of global atmospheric changes on vegetation and resulting insect populations(‘bottom‐up interactions’) are being increasingly studied, how these gases modify interactions among insects and their natural enemies (‘top‐down interactions’) is less clear. As natural enemy efficacy is governed largely by behavioural mechanisms, altered prey finding and prey defence may change insect population dynamics. Here we show that pheromone‐mediated escape behaviours, and hence the vulnerability of insects to natural enemies, are divergent under atmospheric conditions associated with global climate change. Chaitophorus stevensis, a common aphid on trembling aspen trees, Populus tremuloides, have diminished escape responses in enriched carbon dioxide (CO₂) environments, while those in enriched ozone (O₃) have augmented escape responses, to alarm pheromone. These results suggest that divergent pheromone‐mediated behaviours could alter predator–prey interactions in future environments.     

European post-glacial forests: compositional changes in response to climatic change

Abstract. Multivariate analysis of an extensive palyno-logical database for Europe has enabled reconstruction of broad-scale vegetation history. Whereas many major features of present vegetation patterns were established early in the Holocene, floristic composition of the forests has changed continuously up to the present day. For example, although ‘mixed deciduous forests’ had reached approximately their present extent in northwest Europe by 8000 B.P., Tilia peaked in abundance in these forests during the middle post glacial, whereas Pinus was most abundant in these forests during the early post-glacial and Fagus increased in abundance only in recent millennia. Pollen-climate response surfaces for major pollen taxa show how their distribution and abundance patterns relate to contemporary climate. Past forest-compositional changes were responses to climatic changes, the nature of which can be inferred from pollen-climate response surfaces. Post-glacial climate changes have been different in magnitude and direction in different regions of Europe. For example, in recent millennia the vegetation changes indicate decreasing summer temperatures in northern Europe but increasing summer temperatures in the Mediterranean region. The way in which vegetation responded to past climatic changes gives insight into the likely response of vegetation to future climate changes induced by the ‘greenhouse effect’.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of selected North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios

1. North America has a diverse array of mammalian species. Model projections indicate significant variations in future climate conditions of North America, and the habitats of woodland mammals of this continent may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate.
2. We report on the potential spatial distributions of 13 wide-ranging, relatively common species of North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios.
3. We examined the potential influence of the mean and seasonal climate variables on the distribution of species. Presence-only occurrence records of species, four predictor variables, two future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), and two time steps (current and 2070) were used to build species’ distribution models using a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt).
4. Our results suggested that overall, 11 of the 13 species are likely to gain climatically suitable space (regions where climate conditions will be similar to those of area currently occupied) at the continental scale, but American marten Martes americana and ‘woodland’ caribou Rangifer tarandus are likely to lose suitable climate range by 2070. Furthermore, climate space is likely to be expanding northwards under future climate scenarios for most of the mammals, and many jurisdictions in the border region between Canada and the USA are likely to lose iconic species, such as moose Alces alces. We identified regions as potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia, which are increasingly considered to be important for biodiversity conservation.
5. The model results suggest significant implications for conservation planning for the 13 mammalian species under global climate change, especially at fine spatial scales. Numerous species that are presently common at their southern range edge will be functionally or completely extirpated in 50 years. The potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia could provide an effective support for adaptive strategies aimed at species conservation planning.

     

Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change

The Northern Hemisphere's boreal forests, particularly the Siberian boreal forest, may have a strong effect on Earth's climate through changes in dominant vegetation and associated regional surface albedo. We show that warmer climate will likely convert Siberia's deciduous larch (Larix spp.) to evergreen conifer forests, and thus decrease regional surface albedo. The dynamic vegetation model, FAREAST, simulates Russian boreal forest composition and was used to explore the feedback between climate change and forest composition at continental, regional, and local scales. FAREAST was used to simulate the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on total and genus‐level biomass at sites across Siberia and the Russian Far East (RFE), and for six high‐ and low‐diversity regions. Model runs with and without European Larch (Larix decidua) included in the available species pool were compared to assess the potential for this species, which is adapted to warmer climate conditions, to mitigate the effects of climate change, especially the shift to evergreen dominance. At the continental scale, when temperature is increased, larch‐dominated sites become vulnerable to early replacement by evergreen conifers. At the regional and local scales, the diverse Amur region of the RFE does not show a strong response to climate change, but the low‐diversity regions in central and southern Siberia have an abrupt vegetation shift from larch‐dominated forest to evergreen‐conifer forest in response to increased temperatures. The introduction of L. decidua prevents the collapse of larch in these low‐diversity areas and thus mitigates the response to warming. Using contemporary MODIS albedo measurements, we determined that a conversion from larch to evergreen stands in low‐diversity regions of southern Siberia would generate a local positive radiative forcing of 5.1±2.6 W m^?2. This radiative heating would reinforce the warming projected to occur in the area under climate change.     

Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of zonal forest communities in Switzerland

Abstract. A spatially explicit, climate-sensitive vegetation model is presented to simulate both present and future distribution of potential natural vegetation types in Switzerland at the level of zonal forest communities. The model has two versions: (1) a ‘basic’ version using geographical region, aspect, bedrock (represented by soil pH), and elevation, and (2) a ‘climate-sensitive’ version obtained by replacing elevation (complex environmental gradient) with temperature (climatic factor). Version 2 is used to predict vegetation response under different (today's and projected) climatic conditions. Two regional climate scenarios are applied: (1) assuming an annual mean temperature increase of 1.1 — 1.4 °C, and (2) assuming an increase of 2.2 — 2.75 °C. Both scenarios result in significant changes of the spatial vegetation patterns as compared with today's climatic conditions. In scenario 1, ca. 33 % of the sample points remain unchanged in terms of the simulated zonal forest community; in scenario 2, virtually all sample points change. The most noticeable changes occur on the Swiss Plateau with Carpinion forests (zonal vegetation of present colline belt) expanding to areas that are occupied today by submontane and low-montane Fagus forests. To estimate the reliability of the simulation, quantitative (comparison with field mapping) and qualitative (comparison with climate types in the Alpine region) tests are performed and the main limitations of the approach are evaluated.     

Inclusion of ecologically based trait variation in plant functional types reduces the projected land carbon sink in an earth system model

Earth system models demonstrate large uncertainty in projected changes in terrestrial carbon budgets. The lack of inclusion of adaptive responses of vegetation communities to the environment has been suggested to hamper the ability of modeled vegetation to adequately respond to environmental change. In this study, variation in functional responses of vegetation has been added to an earth system model (ESM) based on ecological principles. The restriction of viable mean trait values of vegetation communities by the environment, called ‘habitat filtering’, is an important ecological assembly rule and allows for determination of global scale trait–environment relationships. These relationships were applied to model trait variation for different plant functional types (PFTs). For three leaf traits (specific leaf area, maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C, and maximum electron transport rate at 25 °C), relationships with multiple environmental drivers, such as precipitation, temperature, radiation, and CO₂, were determined for the PFTs within the Max Planck Institute ESM. With these relationships, spatiotemporal variation in these formerly fixed traits in PFTs was modeled in global change projections (IPCC RCP8.5 scenario). Inclusion of this environment‐driven trait variation resulted in a strong reduction of the global carbon sink by at least 33% (2.1 Pg C yr^?1) from the 2nd quarter of the 21st century onward compared to the default model with fixed traits. In addition, the mid‐ and high latitudes became a stronger carbon sink and the tropics a stronger carbon source, caused by trait‐induced differences in productivity and relative respirational costs. These results point toward a reduction of the global carbon sink when including a more realistic representation of functional vegetation responses, implying more carbon will stay airborne, which could fuel further climate change.     

Carbon sequestration in peatland: patterns and mechanisms of response to climate change

The response of peatlands to changes in the climatic water budget is crucial to predicting potential feedbacks on the global carbon (C) cycle. To gain insight on the patterns and mechanisms of response, we linked a model of peat accumulation to a model of peatland hydrology, then applied these models to empirical data spanning the past 5000 years for the large mire Store Mosse in southern Sweden. We estimated parameters for C sequestration and height growth by fitting the peat accumulation model to two age profiles. Then, we used independent reconstruction of climate wetness and model reconstruction of bog height to examine changes in peatland hydrology. Reconstructions of C sequestration showed two distinct patterns of behaviour: abrupt increases associated with major transitions in vegetation and dominant Sphagnum species (fuscum, rubellum–fuscum and magellanicum stages), and gradual decreases associated with increasing humification of newly formed peat. Carbon sequestration rate ranged from a minimum of 14 to a maximum of 72 g m^?2 yr^?1, with the most rapid changes occurring in the past 1000 years. Vegetation transitions were associated with periods of increasing climate wetness during which the hydrological requirement for increased seepage loss was met by rise of the water table closer to the peatland surface, with the indirect result of enhancing peat formation. Gradual decline in C sequestration within each vegetation stage resulted from enhanced litter decay losses from the near‐surface layer. In the first two vegetation stages, peatland development (i.e., increasing surface gradient) and decreasing climate wetness drove a gradual increase in thickness of the unsaturated, near‐surface layer, reducing seepage water loss and peat formation. In the most recent vegetation stage, the surface diverged into a mosaic of wet and dry microsites. Despite a steady increase in climate wetness, C sequestration declined rapidly. The complexity of response to climate change cautions against use of past rates to estimate current or to predict future rates of peatland C sequestration. Understanding interactions among hydrology, surface structure and peat formation are essential to predicting potential feedback on the global C cycle.     

Pyrogeographic models,feedbacks and the future of global fire regimes

Conceptual and phenomenological macroecological models of current global fire activity have demonstrated the overwhelming control exerted by primary productivity. Fire activity is very high in savanna regions with intermediate primary productivity, and very low in both densely forested regions with high productivity and arid/cold regions with low productivity. However, predicting future global fire activity using such macroecological models of fire's global ‘niche’ may not be possible because of the feedbacks between fire, climate and vegetation that underpin the fire?productivity relationship. Improving forecasts of global fire activity demands the use of dynamic models to determine how climate, CO₂, vegetation (i.e. canopy closure and plant functional types) and primary productivity constrain fire and evaluation of the strength of feedbacks amongst these variables.     

Uncertain effectiveness of Miscanthus bioenergy expansion for climate change mitigation explored using land surface,agronomic and integrated assessment models

Large-scale bioenergy plays a key role in climate change mitigation scenarios, but its efficacy is uncertain. This study aims to quantify that uncertainty by contrasting the results of three different types of models under the same mitigation scenario (RCP2.6-SSP2), consistent with a 2°C temperature target. This analysis focuses on a single bioenergy feedstock, Miscanthus × giganteus, and contrasts projections for its yields and environmental effects from an integrated assessment model (IMAGE), a land surface and dynamic global vegetation model tailored to Miscanthus bioenergy (JULES) and a bioenergy crop model (MiscanFor). Under the present climate, JULES, IMAGE and MiscanFor capture the observed magnitude and variability in Miscanthus yields across Europe; yet in the tropics JULES and IMAGE predict high yields, whereas MiscanFor predicts widespread drought-related diebacks. 2040–2049 projections show there is a rapid scale up of over 200 Mha bioenergy cropping area in the tropics. Resulting biomass yield ranges from 12 (MiscanFor) to 39 (JULES) Gt dry matter over that decade. Change in soil carbon ranges from +0.7 Pg C (MiscanFor) to −2.8 Pg C (JULES), depending on preceding land cover and soil carbon.2090–99 projections show large-scale biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is projected in Europe. The models agree that <2°C global warming will increase yields in the higher latitudes, but drought stress in the Mediterranean region could produce low yields (MiscanFor), and significant losses of soil carbon (JULES and IMAGE). These results highlight the uncertainty in rapidly scaling-up biomass energy supply, especially in dry tropical climates and in regions where future climate change could result in drier conditions. This has important policy implications—because prominently used scenarios to limit warming to ‘well below 2°C’ (including the one explored here) depend upon its effectiveness.     

Early Pleistocene vegetation change in upland south‐eastern Australia

Aim This study aims to improve our understanding of the late Cenozoic history of Australian rain forest and sclerophyll biomes by presenting a detailed pollen record demonstrating the floristic composition and orbital‐scale patterns of change in forest communities of upland south‐eastern Australia, during the Early Pleistocene. The record is examined in order to shed light on the nature of the transition from rain forest‐dominated ‘Tertiary’ Australian vegetation to open‐canopied ‘Quaternary’ vegetation. Location Stony Creek Basin (144.13° E, 37.35° S, 550 m a.s.l), a small, infilled palaeolake in the western uplands of Victoria, Australia. Methods A c. 40‐m‐long sediment core was recovered from the infilled palaeolake. Palynology was used to produce a record of changing vegetation through time. Multivariate analyses provided a basis for interpreting the composition of rain forest and sclerophyll forest communities and for identifying changes in these communities over successive insolation cycles. Results Early Pleistocene upland south‐eastern Australian vegetation was characterized by orbital‐scale, cyclic alternation between rain forest and sclerophyll forests. Individual intervals of forest development underwent patterns of sequential taxon expansion that recurred in successive vegetation cycles. Diverse rain forests included a number of angiosperm and gymnosperm taxa now extinct regionally to globally. Sclerophyll forests were also diverse, and occurred under warm and wet climate conditions. Main conclusions The Stony Creek Basin record demonstrates that as recently as c. 1.5 Ma diverse rain forests persisted in southern Australia beyond the modern continental range of rain forest. The importance of conifers in these rain forests emphasizes that they have no modern Australian analogue. Alternation in dominance between these forests and diverse, sclerophyllous open canopied forests was apparently driven by changes in seasonality, and may have been promoted by fire.     

Time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change

Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time‐lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate–vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large‐scale vegetation–climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time‐lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time‐lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate‐driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time‐lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate‐driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time‐lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time‐lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982–2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time‐lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change.     

Is New Zealand vegetation really ‘problematic’? Dansereau's puzzles revisited

Over four decades ago, Pierre Dansereau, the noted North American ecologist, proposed six features of New Zealand vegetation as being problematic or unusual in a global context. We examine his propositions in the light of current ecological knowledge to determine whether or not these can still be considered unusual characteristics of New Zealand vegetation. (1) ‘Climatic change is still progressing’ resulting in disequilibrium between species' distributions and the present climate. New data and methods of analysis now available have removed the impression that Dansereau gained of imprecise zonation, unclear vegetation/climate relations and missing vegetation types. Communities cited as having regeneration failure can now be seen as even‐aged stands that developed after major disturbance, although there are other, also non‐climatic, explanations. However, the cause of the Westland ‘Nothofagus gap’ has become more, rather than less, controversial. (2) ‘Continuity of community composition defies classification’ and ‘Very few New Zealand associations have faithful species' are correct observations, but perhaps equally true of vegetation elsewhere. Dansereau's assertion of low species richness in New Zealand is not supported by the comparative data available. (3) ‘Lack of intolerant [i.e. mid‐seral] trees …’ is not evident with newer information. The order of species in succession, seen as unclear by Dansereau, has been determined by a range of approaches, largely confirming each other. (4) ‘Discrepancies of form and function …’ in divaricate shrubs and widespread heteroblasty are still controversial, with many more explanations. Several abiotic explanations have failed to stand up to investigation. Explanations in terms of herbivory have been well supported, although the extinction of the large avian herbivores makes certainty impossible. (5) ‘Incidence of hybridization …’ remains problematic. We do not know whether the incidence is unusually high, as Dansereau alleged, but the limited comparative data available suggest not. (6) The ‘overwhelming … competing power of exotics' is strongly context dependent. They are prominent in many non‐forest habitats. It seems that they are drivers of the vegetation change in some habitats, yet passengers after disturbance in others. Invasions can be slow, and may still be very incomplete in some ecosystem types. Whether exotics will eventually take over in most communities, or whether the native species will ‘laugh them to scorn’ as Cockayne suggested, only time will tell. In conclusion, some aspects of New Zealand's vegetation seem less unusual with increased knowledge, but others remain ‘problems’.     

Changes in satellite‐derived vegetation growth trend in temperate and boreal Eurasia from 1982 to 2006

Monitoring changes in vegetation growth has been the subject of considerable research during the past several decades, because of the important role of vegetation in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle and the climate system. In this study, we combined datasets of satellite‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic factors to analyze spatio‐temporal patterns of changes in vegetation growth and their linkage with changes in temperature and precipitation in temperate and boreal regions of Eurasia (> 23.5°N) from 1982 to 2006. At the continental scale, although a statistically significant positive trend of average growing season NDVI is observed (0.5 × 10^?3 year^?1, P = 0.03) during the entire study period, there are two distinct periods with opposite trends in growing season NDVI. Growing season NDVI has first significantly increased from 1982 to 1997 (1.8 × 10^?3 year^?1, P < 0.001), and then decreased from 1997 to 2006 (?1.3 × 10^?3 year^?1, P = 0.055). This reversal in the growing season NDVI trends over Eurasia are largely contributed by spring and summer NDVI changes. Both spring and summer NDVI significantly increased from 1982 to 1997 (2.1 × 10^?3 year^?1, P = 0.01; 1.6 × 10^?3 year^?1P < 0.001, respectively), but then decreased from 1997 to 2006, particularly summer NDVI which may be related to the remarkable decrease in summer precipitation (?2.7 mm yr^?1, P = 0.009). Further spatial analyses supports the idea that the vegetation greening trend in spring and summer that occurred during the earlier study period 1982–1997 was either stalled or reversed during the following study period 1997–2006. But the turning point of vegetation NDVI is found to vary across different regions.     

Temperature-based population segregation in birch

Mean temperature of establishment years for warm‐ and cold‐year subpopulations of a naturally occurring stand of Betula pendula (birch) shows a difference equivalent to that between current temperatures and temperatures projected for 35–55 years hence, given ‘business as usual.’ The existence of ‘pre‐adapted’ individuals in standing tree populations would reduce temperature‐based advantages for invading species and, if general, bring into question assumptions currently used in models of global climate change. Our results demonstrate a methodology useful for investigating the important ecological issue of adaptation vs. range shifts as a means of response to climate change.     

Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia

Climate change has already altered global patterns of biodiversity by modifying the geographic distributions of species. Forecasts based on bioclimatic envelop modeling of distributions of species suggests greater impacts can be expected in the future, but such projections are contingent on assumptions regarding future climate and migration rates of species. Here, we present a first assessment of the potential impact of climate change on a global biodiversity hotspot in southwestern Western Australia. Across three representative scenarios of future climate change, we simulated migration of 100 Banksia (Proteaceae) species at a rate of 5 km decade^?1 and compared projected impacts with those under the commonly applied, but acknowledged as inadequate, assumptions of ‘full‐’ and ‘no‐migration.’ Across all climate × migration scenarios, 66% of species were projected to decline, whereas only 6% were projected to expand or remain stable. Between 5% and 25% of species were projected to suffer range losses of 100% by 2080, depending mainly on climate scenario. Species losses were driven primarily by changes in current precipitation regimes, with the greatest losses of species projected to occur in a transition zone between wet coastal areas and interior arid regions and which is projected to become more arid in the future. Because the ranges of most species tended to collapse in all climate scenarios, we found that climate change impacts to flora of southwestern Western Australia may be large, even under optimistic assumptions regarding migration abilities. Taken together, our results suggest that the future of biodiversity in southwestern Western Australia may lie largely in the degree to which this hotspot experiences increased drought and in the ability of species to tolerate such decreases in precipitation. More broadly, our study is among a growing number of theoretical studies suggesting the impacts of future climate change on global biodiversity may be considerable.     

Changes in the distribution of South Korean forest vegetation simulated using thermal gradient indices

To predict changes in South Korean vegetation distribution, the Warmth Index (WI) and the Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Month Index (MTCI) were used. Historical climate data of the past 30 years, from 1971 to 2000, was obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. The Fifth-Generation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) /Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used as a source for future climatic data under the A1B scenario from the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To simulate future vegetation distribution due to climate change, the optimal habitat ranges of Korean tree species were delimited by the thermal gradient indices, such as WI and MTCI. To categorize the Thermal Analogy Groups (TAGs) for the tree species, the WI and MTCI were orthogonally plotted on a two-dimensional grid map. The TAGs were then designated by the analogue composition of tree species belonging to the optimal WI and MTCI ranges. As a result of the clustering process, 22 TAGs were generated to explain the forest vegetation distribution in Korea. The primary change in distribution for these TAGs will likely be in the shrinkage of areas for the TAGs related to Pinus densiflora and P. koraiensis, and in the expansion of the other TAG areas, mainly occupied by evergreen broad-leaved trees, such as Camellia japonica, Cyclobalanopsis glauca, and Schima superba. Using the TAGs to explain the effects of climate change on vegetation distribution on a more regional scale resulted in greater detail than previously used global or continental scale vegetation models.