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1.
Species that provide intensive parental care could suffer fitness costs associated with conspecific brood parasitism. Here we evaluate the effect of conspecific brood parasitism on apparent annual survival probability of female Prothonotary Warblers Protonotaria citrea using a multistate model with imperfect state assignment analysed in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. We found no difference in annual survival probability between host and non‐host females. These findings agree with previous work in that there seems to be little apparent cost of conspecific brood parasitism to female Warblers in this system. 相似文献
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CHIARA MARCHI IRENE F. SANZ ELÉONORE BLOT JANNICK HANSEN ALYN J. WALSH MORTEN FREDERIKSEN ANTHONY D. FOX 《Ibis》2010,152(2):410-413
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Juan Carlos Senar Lluïsa Arroyo Alba Ortega‐Segalerva Jos G. Carrillo Xavier Toms Tomas Montalvo Ana Sanz‐Aguilar 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(2):891-898
Many species only show sexual dimorphism at the age of maturity, such that juveniles typically resemble females. Under these circumstances, estimating accurate age‐specific demographic parameters is challenging. Here, we propose a multievent model parameterization able to estimate age‐dependent survival using capture–recapture data with uncertainty in age and sex assignment of individuals. We illustrate this modeling approach with capture–recapture data from the ring‐necked parakeet Psittacula krameri. We analyzed capture, recapture, and resighting data (439 recaptures/resightings) of 156 ring‐necked parakeets tagged with neck collars in Barcelona city from 2003 to 2016 to estimate the juvenile and adult survival rate. Our models successfully estimated the survival probabilities of the different age classes considered. Survival probability was similar between adults (0.83, 95% CI = 0.77–0.87) and juveniles during their second (0.79, 95% CI = 0.58–0.87) and third winter (0.83, 95% CI = 0.65–0.88). The youngest juveniles (1st winter) showed a slightly lower survival (0.57, 95% CI = 0.37–0.79). Among adults, females showed a slightly higher survival than males (0.87, 95% CI = 0.78–0.93; and 0.80, 95% CI = 0.73–0.86, respectively). These high survival figures predict high population persistence in this species and urge management policies. The analysis also stresses the usefulness of multievent models to estimate juvenile survival when age cannot be fully ascertained. 相似文献
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We analyzed seasonal variation in mortality rates in adult males and females of the European adder (Vipera berus), using data collected during a 13‐year capture–recapture study (2005–2017) in a large population. We concurrently obtained quantitative information on the seasonal variation in the detectability and body condition of adders. Our results show strong seasonality in body condition, encounter, and capture rates of adult adders, and these patterns differ markedly between sexes and between breeding and nonbreeding females. Seasonal variation in mortality rates was however virtually nonexistent in males and moderately low in both breeding and nonbreeding females. In addition, we found no evidence for among‐year differences in the seasonal mortality schedules of males and females. During periods of intensive basking, both males and pregnant females are highly visible for humans, but are not subject to strong natural mortality. This low susceptibility to predation is presumably induced by various factors, including the limitation of overt exposure to short periods of time and specific microhabitats, the dorsal coloration pattern that provides cryptic protection and possibly also an aposematic warning signal, and presumed seasonal differences in the foraging behavior and food requirements of natural predators. Our data provide some evidence that female adders, but not males, are relatively vulnerable to predation during the seasonal migrations between the hibernation and feeding habitats. Mortality in the females was not much elevated during their breeding years, but was notably highest in the spring of the ensuing nonbreeding year. After giving birth, reproductive females are extremely emaciated and have a weakened general condition. They then run the risk of dying from starvation either before, during, or after hibernation. The higher mortality after giving birth, that is sustained over a period of ca. 9 months, should be considered as an indirect and delayed survival cost of reproduction. 相似文献
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Hugo Cayuela Dragan Arsovski Sylvain Boitaud Eric Bonnaire Laurent Boualit Claude Miaud Pierre Joly Aurelien Besnard 《Freshwater Biology》2015,60(11):2349-2361
- In the Northern Hemisphere, an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of violent flooding events has been reported due to climate change. According to life history theory, one might postulate that in ‘slow’ species: (i) environmental canalisation may act as a selective force that minimises to some extent adult survival variations caused by catastrophic flood and (ii) extreme flooding events would cause important variations in recruitment and young survival. Hence, it may be hypothesised that (iii) the population growth rate of ‘slow’ species might be relatively insensitive to changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events if adult survival remains largely unaffected.
- In this study, we investigated how extreme rainfall events resulting in severe flood impact population dynamics of a long‐lived endangered amphibian, the yellow‐bellied toad (Bombina variegata: Bombinatoridae). To address this issue, we used capture–recapture (CR) data collected on two populations (768 and 1154 individuals identified) in southern France and developed multi‐event CR models.
- Our results indicated that extreme flooding did not cause any variation in sub‐adult or adult survival, whereas recruitment and juvenile survival were negatively impacted. Furthermore, our simulations indicated that the population growth rate was only marginally sensitive to potential changes in the frequency of extreme flooding in the future.
- Hence, we suggest that extreme flooding does not appear to be a proximal factor of extinction risk for this endangered amphibian species.
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Mnica Arso Civil Barbara Cheney Nicola J. Quick Valentina Islas‐Villanueva Jeff A. Graves Vincent M. Janik Paul M. Thompson Philip S. Hammond 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(1):533-544
Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data. 相似文献
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Laura Schenker Kurt Bollmann Maik Rehnus Sabine Brodbeck Felix Gugerli 《Ecology and evolution》2020,10(18):10150-10166
Systematic monitoring of individuals and their abundance over time has become an important tool to provide information for conservation. For genetic monitoring studies, noninvasive sampling has emerged as a valuable approach, particularly so for elusive or rare animals. Here, we present the 5‐year results of an ongoing noninvasive genetic monitoring of mountain hares (Lepus timidus) in a protected area in the Swiss Alps. We used nuclear microsatellites and a sex marker to identify individuals and assign species to noninvasively collected feces samples. Through including a marker for sex identification, we were able to assess sex ratio changes and sex‐specific demographic parameters over time. Male abundance in the area showed high fluctuations and apparent survival for males was lower than for females. Generally, males and females showed only little temporary migration into and out of the study area. Additionally, using genotyped tissue samples from mountain hares, European hares (Lepus europaeus) and their hybrids, we were able to provide evidence for the first occurrence of a European hare in the study area at an elevation of 2,300 m a.s.l. in spring 2016. For future monitoring studies, we suggest to include complementary analysis methods to reliably infer species identities of the individuals analyzed and, thus, not only monitor mountain hare individual abundance, but also assess the potential threats given through competitive exclusion by and hybridization with the European hare. 相似文献
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Snakes represent a sizable fraction of vertebrate biodiversity, but until recently, data on their demography have been sparse. Consequently, generalizations regarding patterns of variation are weak and the potential for population projections is limited. We address this information gap through an analysis of spatial and temporal variation in demography (population size, annual survival, and realized population growth) of the Lake Erie Watersnake, Nerodia sipedon insularum, and a review of snake survival more generally. Our study spans a period during which the Lake Erie Watersnake was listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, recovered, and was delisted. We collected capture–mark–recapture data at 14 study sites over 20 years, accruing 20,000 captures of 13,800 individually marked adults. Lake Erie Watersnakes achieve extraordinary abundance, averaging 520 adults per km of shoreline (ca. 260 adult per ha) at our study sites (range = 160–1,600 adults per km; ca. 80–800 adults per ha) and surpassing population recovery and postdelisting monitoring criteria. Annual survival averages 0.68 among adult females and 0.76 among adult males, varies among sites, and is positively correlated with body size among study sites. Temporal process variance in annual survival is low, averaging 0.0011 or less than 4% of total variance; thus, stochasticity in annual survival may be of minor significance to snake extinction risk. Estimates of realized population growth indicate that population size has been stable or increasing over the course of our study. More generally, snake annual survival overlaps broadly across continents, climate zones, families, subfamilies, reproductive modes, body size categories, maturation categories, and parity categories. Differences in survival in relation to size, parity, and maturation are in the directions predicted by life history theory but are of small magnitude with much variation around median values. Overall, annual survival appears to be quite plastic, varying with food availability, habitat quality, and other ecological variables. 相似文献
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R. MUNGUÍA‐STEYER A. CÓRDOBA‐AGUILAR A. ROMO‐BELTRÁN 《Journal of evolutionary biology》2010,23(1):175-184
There is a gap in terms of the supposed survival differences recorded in the field according to individual condition. This is partly due to our inability to assess survival in the wild. Here we applied modern statistical techniques to field‐gathered data in two damselfly species whose males practice alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs) and whose indicators of condition in both sexes are known. In Paraphlebia zoe, there are two ART: a larger black‐winged (BW) male which defends mating territories and a smaller hyaline‐winged (HW) male that usually acts as a satellite. In this species, condition in both morphs is correlated with body size. In Calopteryx haemorrhoidalis, males follow tactics according to their condition with males in better condition practicing a territorial ART. In addition, in this species, condition correlates positively with wing pigmentation in both sexes. Our prediction for both species was that males practicing the territorial tactic will survive less longer than males using a nonterritorial tactic, and larger or more pigmented animals will survive for longer. In P. zoe, BW males survived less than females but did not differ from HW males, and not necessarily larger individuals survived for longer. In fact, size affected survival but only when group identity was analysed, showing a positive relationship in females and a slightly negative relationship in both male morphs. For C. haemorrhoidalis, survival was larger for more pigmented males and females, but size was not a good survival predictor. Our results partially confirm assumptions based on the maintenance of ARTs. Our results also indicate that female pigmentation, correlates with a fitness component – survival – as proposed by recent sexual selection ideas applied to females. 相似文献
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Global climate change and associated regional climate variability is impacting the phenology of many species, ultimately altering individual fitness and population dynamics. Yet, few studies have considered the effects of pertinent seasonal climate variability on phenology and fitness. Hibernators may be particularly susceptible to changes in seasonal climate since they have a relatively short active season in which to reproduce and gain enough mass to survive the following winter. To understand whether and how seasonal climate variability may be affecting hibernator fitness, we estimated survival from historical (1964–1968) and contemporary (2014–2017) mark–recapture data collected from the same population of Uinta ground squirrels (UGS, Urocitellus armatus), a hibernator endemic to the western United States. Despite a locally warming climate, the phenology of UGS did not change over time, yet season‐specific climate variables were important in regulating survival rates. Specifically, older age classes experienced lower survival when winters or the following springs were warm, while juveniles benefited from warmer winter temperatures. Although metabolic costs decrease with decreasing temperature in the hibernacula, arousal costs increase with decreasing temperature. Our results suggest that this trade‐off is experienced differently by immature and mature individuals. We also observed an increase in population density during that time period, suggesting resources are less limited today than they used to be. Cheatgrass is now dominating the study site and may provide a better food source to UGS than native plants did historically. 相似文献
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Marine Desprez Clive R. McMahon Mark A. Hindell Robert Harcourt Olivier Gimenez 《Ecology and evolution》2013,3(14):4658-4668
Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state – recruitment – leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture–recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi‐event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi‐event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture–recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi‐event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy. 相似文献
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Monthly, overwinter and annual instantaneous growth rates for round goby Neogobius melanostomus were calculated with maximal growth occurring in July and August and almost no growth observed between ice appearance (October) and melt (March). Annual absolute growth rates averaged 27·3 ± 1·9 mm for males and 19·8 ± 2·4 mm for females. The most parsimonious Cormack–Jolly–Seber model indicated that both the survival and recapture probabilities were dependent on sampling date, but not sex. Survival estimates remained high throughout the 13 month study with a median weekly survival probability of 0·920 (25 and 75% quartiles: 0·767 and 0·991), an overwinter survival probability of 99% and an annual survival rate of 67%. Survival probabilities were lowest for both sexes near the completion of the N. melanostomus reproductive season in July and August which supports existing evidence of higher mortality after reproduction, while challenging the paradigm that male N. melanostomus suffer comparatively higher mortality as a result of reproduction than females. Evidence indicating that growth and mortality rates are highest at the end of the reproductive season not only highlights seasonal variability in N. melanostomus natural history, but may also guide the control of this invasive species to periods when they are most vulnerable. 相似文献
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Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat. 相似文献
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Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate‐associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture‐recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species. 相似文献
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Freddie W. Leith Jennifer L. Grigg Barbara J. Barham Peter J. Barham Katrin Ludynia Cuan McGeorge Andile Mdluli Nola J. Parsons Lauren J. Waller Richard B. Sherley 《Ecology and evolution》2022,12(9)
In long‐lived species, reproductive skipping is a common strategy whereby sexually mature animals skip a breeding season, potentially reducing population growth. This may be an adaptive decision to protect survival, or a non‐adaptive decision driven by individual‐specific constraints. Understanding the presence and drivers of reproductive skipping behavior can be important for effective population management, yet in many species such as the endangered African penguin (Spheniscus demersus), these factors remain unknown. This study uses multistate mark‐recapture methods to estimate African penguin survival and breeding probabilities at two colonies between 2013 and 2020. Overall, survival (mean ± SE) was higher at Stony Point (0.82 ± 0.01) than at Robben Island (0.77 ± 0.02). Inter‐colony differences were linked to food availability; under decreasing sardine (Sardinops sagax) abundance, survival decreased at Robben Island and increased at Stony Point. Additionally, reproductive skipping was evident across both colonies; at Robben Island the probability of a breeder becoming a nonbreeder was ~0.22, versus ~0.1 at Stony Point. Penguins skipping reproduction had a lower probability of future breeding than breeding individuals; this lack of adaptive benefit suggests reproductive skipping is driven by individual‐specific constraints. Lower survival and breeding propensity at Robben Island places this colony in greater need of conservation action. However, further research on the drivers of inter‐colony differences is needed. 相似文献
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Life‐history theory predicts trade‐offs between reproductive and survival traits such that different strategies or environmental constraints may yield comparable lifetime reproductive success among conspecifics. Food availability is one of the most important environmental factors shaping developmental processes. It notably affects key life‐history components such as reproduction and survival prospect. We investigated whether food resource availability could also operate as an ultimate driver of life‐history strategy variation between species. During 13 years, we marked and recaptured young and adult sibling mouse‐eared bats (Myotis myotis and Myotis blythii) at sympatric colonial sites. We tested whether distinct, species‐specific trophic niches and food availability patterns may drive interspecific differences in key life‐history components such as age at first reproduction and survival. We took advantage of a quasi‐experimental setting in which prey availability for the two species varies between years (pulse vs. nonpulse resource years), modeling mark‐recapture data for demographic comparisons. Prey availability dictated both adult survival and age at first reproduction. The bat species facing a more abundant and predictable food supply early in the season started its reproductive life earlier and showed a lower adult survival probability than the species subjected to more limited and less predictable food supply, while lifetime reproductive success was comparable in both species. The observed life‐history trade‐off indicates that temporal patterns in food availability can drive evolutionary divergence in life‐history strategies among sympatric sibling species. 相似文献
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Giacomo Tavecchia Simone Tenan Roger Pradel José‐Manuel Igual Meritxell Genovart Daniel Oro 《Global Change Biology》2016,22(12):3960-3966
Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate‐driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual‐based data on a trans‐equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large‐scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λi, estimated using local climate‐driven parameters with ρi, a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λi varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate‐dependent parameters, ρi did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate‐driven projections. 相似文献
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Nina Luisa Santostasi Paolo Ciucci Romolo Caniglia Elena Fabbri Luigi Molinari Willy Reggioni Olivier Gimenez 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(2):744-755
Estimating the relative abundance (prevalence) of different population segments is a key step in addressing fundamental research questions in ecology, evolution, and conservation. The raw percentage of individuals in the sample (naive prevalence) is generally used for this purpose, but it is likely to be subject to two main sources of bias. First, the detectability of individuals is ignored; second, classification errors may occur due to some inherent limits of the diagnostic methods. We developed a hidden Markov (also known as multievent) capture–recapture model to estimate prevalence in free‐ranging populations accounting for imperfect detectability and uncertainty in individual's classification. We carried out a simulation study to compare naive and model‐based estimates of prevalence and assess the performance of our model under different sampling scenarios. We then illustrate our method with a real‐world case study of estimating the prevalence of wolf (Canis lupus) and dog (Canis lupus familiaris) hybrids in a wolf population in northern Italy. We showed that the prevalence of hybrids could be estimated while accounting for both detectability and classification uncertainty. Model‐based prevalence consistently had better performance than naive prevalence in the presence of differential detectability and assignment probability and was unbiased for sampling scenarios with high detectability. We also showed that ignoring detectability and uncertainty in the wolf case study would lead to underestimating the prevalence of hybrids. Our results underline the importance of a model‐based approach to obtain unbiased estimates of prevalence of different population segments. Our model can be adapted to any taxa, and it can be used to estimate absolute abundance and prevalence in a variety of cases involving imperfect detection and uncertainty in classification of individuals (e.g., sex ratio, proportion of breeders, and prevalence of infected individuals). 相似文献