Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones on the Great Barrier Reef and its ecological importance

Tropical cyclones have been a major cause of reef coral decline during recent decades, including on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). While cyclones are a natural element of the disturbance regime of coral reefs, the role of temporal clustering has previously been overlooked. Here, we examine the consequences of different types of cyclone temporal distributions (clustered, stochastic or regular) on reef ecosystems. We subdivided the GBR into 14 adjoining regions, each spanning roughly 300 km, and quantified both the rate and clustering of cyclones using dispersion statistics. To interpret the consequences of such cyclone variability for coral reef health, we used a model of observed coral population dynamics. Results showed that clustering occurs on the margins of the cyclone belt, being strongest in the southern reefs and the far northern GBR, which also has the lowest cyclone rate. In the central GBR, where rates were greatest, cyclones had a relatively regular temporal pattern. Modelled dynamics of the dominant coral genus, Acropora, suggest that the long-term average cover might be more than 13 % greater (in absolute cover units) under a clustered cyclone regime compared to stochastic or regular regimes. Thus, not only does cyclone clustering vary significantly along the GBR but such clustering is predicted to have a marked, and management-relevant, impact on the status of coral populations. Additionally, we use our regional clustering and rate results to sample from a library of over 7000 synthetic cyclone tracks for the GBR. This allowed us to provide robust reef-scale maps of annual cyclone frequency and cyclone impacts on Acropora. We conclude that assessments of coral reef vulnerability need to account for both spatial and temporal cyclone distributions.

     

Towards modelling the future risk of cyclone wave damage to the world's coral reefs

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that can damage coral reef communities. Recovery typically requires up to a decade, driving the trajectory of coral community structure. Coral reefs have evolved over millennia with cyclones. Increasingly, however, processes of recovery are interrupted and compromised by additional pressures (thermal stress, pollution, diseases, predators). Understanding how cyclones interact with other pressures to threaten coral reefs underpins spatial prioritization of conservation and management interventions. Models that simulate coral responses to cumulative pressures often assume that the worst cyclone wave damage occurs within ~100 km of the track. However, we show major coral loss at exposed sites up to 800 km from a cyclone that was both strong (high sustained wind speeds >=33 m/s) and big (widespread circulation >~300 km), using numerical wave models and field data from northwest Australia. We then calculate the return time of big and strong cyclones, big cyclones of any strength and strong cyclones of any size, for each of 150 coral reef ecoregions using a global data set of past cyclones from 1985 to 2015. For the coral ecoregions that regularly were exposed to cyclones during that time, we find that 75% of them were exposed to at least one cyclone that was both big and strong. Return intervals of big and strong cyclones are already less than 5 years for 13 ecoregions, primarily in the cyclone‐prone NW Pacific, and less than 10 years for an additional 14 ecoregions. We identify ecoregions likely at higher risk in future given projected changes in cyclone activity. Robust quantification of the spatial distribution of likely cyclone wave damage is vital not only for understanding past coral response to pressures, but also for predicting how this may change as the climate continues to warm and the relative frequency of the strongest cyclones rises.     

Maintenance of fish diversity on disturbed coral reefs

Habitat perturbations play a major role in shaping community structure; however, the elements of disturbance-related habitat change that affect diversity are not always apparent. This study examined the effects of habitat disturbances on species richness of coral reef fish assemblages using annual surveys of habitat and 210 fish species from 10 reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Over a period of 11 years, major disturbances, including localised outbreaks of crown-of-thorns sea star (Acanthaster planci), severe storms or coral bleaching, resulted in coral decline of 46–96% in all the 10 reefs. Despite declines in coral cover, structural complexity of the reef framework was retained on five and species richness of coral reef fishes maintained on nine of the disturbed reefs. Extensive loss of coral resulted in localised declines of highly specialised coral-dependent species, but this loss of diversity was more than compensated for by increases in the number of species that feed on the epilithic algal matrix (EAM). A unimodal relationship between areal coral cover and species richness indicated species richness was greatest at approximately 20% coral cover declining by 3–4 species (6–8% of average richness) at higher and lower coral cover. Results revealed that declines in coral cover on reefs may have limited short-term impact on the diversity of coral reef fishes, though there may be fundamental changes in the community structure of fishes.     

Impacts and Recovery from Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi on the Great Barrier Reef

Full recovery of coral reefs from tropical cyclone (TC) damage can take decades, making cyclones a major driver of habitat condition where they occur regularly. Since 1985, 44 TCs generated gale force winds (≥17 metres/second) within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP). Of the hurricane strength TCs (≥H1—Saffir Simpson scale; ≥ category 3 Australian scale), TC Yasi (February, 2011) was the largest. In the weeks after TC Yasi crossed the GBRMP, participating researchers, managers and rangers assessed the extent and severity of reef damage via 841 Reef Health and Impact Surveys at 70 reefs. Records were scaled into five damage levels representing increasingly widespread colony-level damage (1, 2, 3) and reef structural damage (4, 5). Average damage severity was significantly affected by direction (north vs south of the cyclone track), reef shelf position (mid-shelf vs outer-shelf) and habitat type. More outer-shelf reefs suffered structural damage than mid-shelf reefs within 150 km of the track. Structural damage spanned a greater latitudinal range for mid-shelf reefs than outer-shelf reefs (400 vs 300 km). Structural damage was patchily distributed at all distances, but more so as distance from the track increased. Damage extended much further from the track than during other recent intense cyclones that had smaller circulation sizes. Just over 15% (3,834 km²) of the total reef area of the GBRMP is estimated to have sustained some level of coral damage, with ~4% (949 km²) sustaining a degree of structural damage. TC Yasi likely caused the greatest loss of coral cover on the GBR in a 24-hour period since 1985. Severely impacted reefs have started to recover; coral cover increased an average of 4% between 2011 and 2013 at re-surveyed reefs. The in situ assessment of impacts described here is the largest in scale ever conducted on the Great Barrier Reef following a reef health disturbance.     

Delayed coral recovery in a warming ocean

Climate change threatens coral reefs across the world. Intense bleaching has caused dramatic coral mortality in many tropical regions in recent decades, but less obvious chronic effects of temperature and other stressors can be equally threatening to the long‐term persistence of diverse coral‐dominated reef systems. Coral reefs persist if coral recovery rates equal or exceed average rates of mortality. While mortality from acute destructive events is often obvious and easy to measure, estimating recovery rates and investigating the factors that influence them requires long‐term commitment. Coastal development is increasing in many regions, and sea surface temperatures are also rising. The resulting chronic stresses have predictable, adverse effects on coral recovery, but the lack of consistent long‐term data sets has prevented measurement of how much coral recovery rates are actually changing. Using long‐term monitoring data from 47 reefs spread over 10 degrees of latitude on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we used a modified Gompertz equation to estimate coral recovery rates following disturbance. We compared coral recovery rates in two periods: 7 years before and 7 years after an acute and widespread heat stress event on the GBR in 2002. From 2003 to 2009, there were few acute disturbances in the region, allowing us to attribute the observed shortfall in coral recovery rates to residual effects of acute heat stress plus other chronic stressors. Compared with the period before 2002, the recovery of fast‐growing Acroporidae and of “Other” slower growing hard corals slowed after 2002, doubling the time taken for modest levels of recovery. If this persists, recovery times will be increasing at a time when acute disturbances are predicted to become more frequent and intense. Our study supports the need for management actions to protect reefs from locally generated stresses, as well as urgent global action to mitigate climate change.     

Coral reef resilience to thermal stress in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Coral reefs worldwide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño‐induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events predicted in the coming decades threatens a pan‐tropical collapse of coral reefs. During the 1982–1983 El Niño, most reefs in the Galapagos Islands collapsed, and many more in the region were decimated by massive coral bleaching and mortality. However, after repeated thermal stress disturbances, such as those caused by the 1997–1998 El Niño, ETP corals reefs have demonstrated regional persistence and resiliency. Using a 44 year dataset (1970–2014) of live coral cover from the ETP, we assess whether ETP reefs exhibit the same decline as seen globally for other reefs. Also, we compare the ETP live coral cover rate of change with data from the maximum Degree Heating Weeks experienced by these reefs to assess the role of thermal stress on coral reef survival. We find that during the period 1970–2014, ETP coral cover exhibited temporary reductions following major ENSO events, but no overall decline. Further, we find that ETP reef recovery patterns allow coral to persist under these El Niño‐stressed conditions, often recovering from these events in 10–15 years. Accumulative heat stress explains 31% of the overall annual rate of change of living coral cover in the ETP. This suggests that ETP coral reefs have adapted to thermal extremes to date, and may have the ability to adapt to near‐term future climate‐change thermal anomalies. These findings for ETP reef resilience may provide general insights for the future of coral reef survival and recovery elsewhere under intensifying El Niño scenarios.     

Cyclone effects on coral reef habitats in New Caledonia (South Pacific)

The impacts of the unusually strong Cyclone Erica (March 2003) on coral reef habitats at a site located on the northwest coast of New Caledonia (South Pacific) were assessed using a 6-year data set (2002–2007). We examined the interannual variations of key variables describing reef habitats (live hard and soft corals, dead corals in place, coral debris, algae and relative proportion of mechanically vulnerable and resistant live hard corals). The cyclone-induced disturbances of habitats differed according to three reef types: patch reefs, barrier reefs far from passes (more than 3 km from the nearest pass) and barrier reefs near passes (less than 3 km from the nearest pass). Short-term mechanical damage was detected on the three-dimensional structure of reef habitats with a notable shift from a community dominated by mechanically vulnerable corals to one dominated by resistant corals on barrier reefs far from passes. The history of habitats and their pre-disturbance characteristics, in link with local hydrodynamics, was found to influence their short-term susceptibility to extreme events such as cyclones. However, the most significant effects appeared in the midterm (within 2 years after the cyclone) as the cover of live hard corals significantly decreased by approximately 45% between 2002 and 2004 on all reef types. The short- and midterm disturbances of coral reef habitats are discussed with regard to published temporal variations in reef fish assemblages, underlining the delayed effects of this cyclonic event on fish as well as benthic habitats. Coral reef habitats and live corals had shown significant patterns of recovery 4 years after the cyclone, followed by similar recovery in fish community, suggesting good resilience in a face of this major natural disturbance in an area under moderate anthropogenic pressure.     

Impact of cyclones on hard coral and metapopulation structure,connectivity and genetic diversity of coral reef fish

Cyclones have one of the greatest effects on the biodiversity of coral reefs and the associated species. But it is unknown how stochastic alterations in habitat structure influence metapopulation structure, connectivity and genetic diversity. From 1993 to 2018, the reefs of the Capricorn Bunker Reef group in the southern part of the Great Barrier Reef were impacted by three tropical cyclones including cyclone Hamish (2009, category 5). This resulted in substantial loss of live habitat-forming coral and coral reef fish communities. Within 6–8 years after cyclones had devastated, live hard corals recovered by 50–60%. We show the relationship between hard coral cover and the abundance of the neon damselfish (Pomacentrus coelestis), the first fish colonizing destroyed reefs. We present the first long-term (2008–2015 years corresponding to 16–24 generations of P. coelestis) population genetic study to understand the impact of cyclones on the meta-population structure, connectivity and genetic diversity of the neon damselfish. After the cyclone, we observed the largest change in the genetic structure at reef populations compared to other years. Simultaneously, allelic richness of genetic microsatellite markers dropped indicating a great loss of genetic diversity, which increased again in subsequent years. Over years, metapopulation dynamics were characterized by high connectivity among fish populations associated with the Capricorn Bunker reefs (2200 km²); however, despite high exchange, genetic patchiness was observed with annual strong genetic divergence between populations among reefs. Some broad similarities in the genetic structure in 2015 could be explained by dispersal from a source reef and the related expansion of local populations. This study has shown that alternating cyclone-driven changes and subsequent recovery phases of coral habitat can greatly influence patterns of reef fish connectivity. The frequency of disturbances determines abundance of fish and genetic diversity within species.

     

Spatial resilience of the Great Barrier Reef under cumulative disturbance impacts

In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here we develop a high‐resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and tropical cyclones. Our projections reconstruct coral cover trajectories between 1996 and 2017 over a total reef area of 14,780 km², predicting a mean annual coral loss of ?0.67%/year mostly due to the impact of cyclones, followed by starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching. Coral growth rate was the highest for outer shelf coral communities characterized by digitate and tabulate Acropora spp. and exposed to low seasonal variations in salinity and sea surface temperature, and the lowest for inner‐shelf communities exposed to reduced water quality. We show that coral resilience (defined as the net effect of resistance and recovery following disturbance) was negatively related to the frequency of river plume conditions, and to reef accessibility to a lesser extent. Surprisingly, reef resilience was substantially lower within no‐take marine protected areas, however this difference was mostly driven by the effect of water quality. Our model provides a new validated, spatially explicit platform for identifying the reefs that face the greatest risk of biodiversity loss, and those that have the highest chances to persist under increasing disturbance regimes.     

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown‐of‐thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run‐off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017–2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near‐term, relative to current state, followed by climate‐driven decline. Under a scenario of unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5) and business‐as‐usual management of local stressors, mean coral cover on the GBR is predicted to recover over the next decade and then rapidly decline to only 3% by year 2050. In contrast, a scenario of strong carbon mitigation (RCP2.6) and improved water quality, predicts significant coral recovery over the next two decades, followed by a relatively modest climate‐driven decline that sustained coral cover above 26% by 2050. In an analysis of the impacts of cumulative stressors on coral cover relative to potential coral cover in the absence of such impacts, we found that GBR‐wide reef performance will decline 27%–74% depending on the scenario. Up to 66% of performance loss is attributable to local stressors. The potential for management to reduce vulnerability, measured here as the mean number of years coral cover can be kept above 30%, is spatially variable. Management strategies that alleviate cumulative impacts have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of some midshelf reefs in the central GBR by 83%, but only if combined with strong mitigation of carbon emissions.     

Temperature‐driven coral decline: the role of marine protected areas

Warming ocean temperatures are considered to be an important cause of the degradation of the world's coral reefs. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as one tool to increase coral reef ecosystem resistance and resilience (i.e. recovery) to the negative effects of climate change, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in achieving these goals. We used a high resolution 4 km global temperature anomaly database from 1985–2005 and 8040 live coral cover surveys on protected and unprotected reefs to determine whether or not MPAs have been effective in mitigating temperature‐driven coral loss. Generally, protection in MPAs did not reduce the effect of warm temperature anomalies on coral cover declines. Shortcomings in MPA design, including size and placement, may have contributed to the lack of an MPA effect. Empirical studies suggest that corals that have been previously exposed to moderate levels of thermal stress have greater adaptive capacity and resistance to future thermal stress events. Existing MPAs protect relatively fewer reefs with moderate anomaly frequencies, potentially reducing their effectiveness. However, our results also suggest that the benefits from MPAs may not be great enough to offset the magnitude of losses from acute thermal stress events. Although MPAs are important conservation tools, their limitations in mitigating coral loss from acute thermal stress events suggest that they need to be complemented with policies aimed at reducing the activities responsible for climate change.     

Palaeoecological evidence of a historical collapse of corals at Pelorus Island,inshore Great Barrier Reef,following European settlement

The inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have undergone significant declines in water quality following European settlement (approx. 1870 AD). However, direct evidence of impacts on coral assemblages is limited by a lack of historical baselines prior to the onset of modern monitoring programmes in the early 1980s. Through palaeoecological reconstructions, we report a previously undocumented historical collapse of Acropora assemblages at Pelorus Island (central GBR). High-precision U-series dating of dead Acropora fragments indicates that this collapse occurred between 1920 and 1955, with few dates obtained after 1980. Prior to this event, our results indicate remarkable long-term stability in coral community structure over centennial scales. We suggest that chronic increases in sediment flux and nutrient loading following European settlement acted as the ultimate cause for the lack of recovery of Acropora assemblages following a series of acute disturbance events (SST anomalies, cyclones and flood events). Evidence for major degradation in reef condition owing to human impacts prior to modern ecological surveys indicates that current monitoring of inshore reefs on the GBR may be predicated on a significantly shifted baseline.     

Caribbean mesophotic coral ecosystems are unlikely climate change refugia

Deeper coral reefs experience reduced temperatures and light and are often shielded from localized anthropogenic stressors such as pollution and fishing. The deep reef refugia hypothesis posits that light‐dependent stony coral species at deeper depths are buffered from thermal stress and will avoid bleaching‐related mass mortalities caused by increasing sea surface temperatures under climate change. This hypothesis has not been tested because data collection on deeper coral reefs is difficult. Here we show that deeper (mesophotic) reefs, 30–75 m depth, in the Caribbean are not refugia because they have lower bleaching threshold temperatures than shallow reefs. Over two thermal stress events, mesophotic reef bleaching was driven by a bleaching threshold that declines 0.26 °C every +10 m depth. Thus, the main premise of the deep reef refugia hypothesis that cooler environments are protective is incorrect; any increase in temperatures above the local mean warmest conditions can lead to thermal stress and bleaching. Thus, relatively cooler temperatures can no longer be considered a de facto refugium for corals and it is likely that many deeper coral reefs are as vulnerable to climate change as shallow water reefs.     

Coral bleaching: one disturbance too many for near-shore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef

The dynamic nature of coral communities can make it difficult to judge whether a reef system is resilient to the current disturbance regime. To address this question of resilience for near-shore coral communities of the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) a data set consisting of 350 annual observations of benthic community change was compiled from existing monitoring data. These data spanned the period 1985–2007 and were derived from coral reefs within 20 km of the coast. During years without major disturbance events, cover increase of the Acroporidae was much faster than it was for other coral families; a median of 11% per annum compared to medians of less than 4% for other coral families. Conversely, Acroporidae were more severely affected by cyclones and bleaching events than most other families. A simulation model parameterised with these observations indicated that while recovery rates of hard corals were sufficient to compensate for impacts associated with cyclones and crown-of-thorns starfish, the advent of mass bleaching has lead to a significant change in the composition of the community and a rapid decline in hard coral cover. Furthermore, if bleaching events continue to occur with the same frequency and severity as in the recent past, the model predicts that the cover of Acroporidae will continue to decline. Although significant cover of live coral remains on near-shore reefs, and recovery is observed during inter-disturbance periods, it appears that this system will not be resilient to the recent disturbance regime over the long term. Conservation strategies for coral reefs should focus on both mitigating local factors that act synergistically to increase the susceptibility of Acroporidae to climate change while promoting initiatives that maximise the recovery potential from inevitable disturbances.     

Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs

Coral reefs and the services they provide are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Here, we present updated global projections for these key threats to coral reefs based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 climate models using the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments. For all tropical reef locations, we project absolute and percentage changes in aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) for the period between 2006 and the onset of annual severe bleaching (thermal stress >8 degree heating weeks); a point at which it is difficult to believe reefs can persist as we know them. Severe annual bleaching is projected to start 10–15 years later at high‐latitude reefs than for reefs in low latitudes under RCP8.5. In these 10–15 years, Ωarag keeps declining and thus any benefits for high‐latitude reefs of later onset of annual bleaching may be negated by the effects of acidification. There are no long‐term refugia from the effects of both acidification and bleaching. Of all reef locations, 90% are projected to experience severe bleaching annually by 2055. Furthermore, 5% declines in calcification are projected for all reef locations by 2034 under RCP8.5, assuming a 15% decline in calcification per unit of Ωarag. Drastic emissions cuts, such as those represented by RCP6.0, result in an average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching that is ~20 years later (2062 vs. 2044). However, global emissions are tracking above the current worst‐case scenario devised by the scientific community, as has happened in previous generations of emission scenarios. The projections here for conditions on coral reefs are dire, but provide the most up‐to‐date assessment of what the changing climate and ocean acidification mean for the persistence of coral reefs.     

Coral and sea urchin assemblage structure and interrelationships in Kenyan reef lagoons

Patterns of hard coral and sea urchin assemblage structure (species richness, diversity, and abundance) were studied in Kenyan coral reef lagoons which experienced different types of human resource use. Two protected reefs (Malindi and Watamu Marine National Parks) were protected from fishing and coral collection, but exposed to heavy tourist use. One reef (Mombasa MNP) received protection from fishermen for one year and was exploited for fish and corals prior to protection and was defined as a transitional reef. Three reefs (Vipingo, Kanamai, and Diani) were unprotected and experienced heavy fishing and some coral collection. Protected and unprotected reefs were distinct in terms of their assemblage structure with the transitional reef grouping with unprotected reefs based on relative and absolute abundance of coral genera. Protected reefs had slightly higher (p<0.01) coral cover (23.6 ± 8.3 % ± S.D.) than unprotected reefs (16.7 ± 8.5), but the transitional reef had the highest coral cover (30.8 ± 6.4) which increased by 250% since measured in 1987: largely attributable to a large increase inPorites nigrescens cover. Protected reefs had higher coral species richness and diversity and a greater relative abundance ofAcropora, Montipora andGalaxea than unprotected reefs. The transitional reef had high species richness, but lower diversity due to the high dominance ofPorites. Sea urchins showed the opposite pattern with highest diversity in most unprotected reefs. Coral cover, species richness, and diversity were negatively associated with sea urchin abundance, but the relative abundance ofPorites increased with sea urchin abundance to the point wherePorites composed >90% of the coral cover at sites with the highest sea urchin abundance. Effects of coral overcollection was only likely for the genusAcropora (staghorn corals). A combination of direct and indirect effects of human resource use may reduce diversity, species richness, and abundance of corals while increasing the absolute abundance of sea urchins and the relative cover ofPorites.     

Assessing loss of coral cover on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef over two decades, with implications for longer-term trends

While coral reefs in many parts of the world are in decline as a direct consequence of human pressures, Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is unusual in that direct human pressures are low and the entire system of ~2,900 reefs has been managed as a marine park since the 1980s. In spite of these advantages, standard annual surveys of a large number of reefs showed that from 1986 to 2004, average live coral cover across the GBR declined from 28 to 22%. This overall decline was mainly due to large losses in six (21%) of 29 subregions. Declines in live coral cover on reefs in two inshore subregions coincided with thermal bleaching in 1998, while declines in four mid-self subregions were due to outbreaks of predatory starfish. Otherwise, living coral cover increased in one subregion (3%) and 22 subregions (76%) showed no substantial change. Reefs in the great majority of subregions showed cycles of decline and recovery over the survey period, but with little synchrony among subregions. Two previous studies examined long-term changes in live coral cover on GBR reefs using meta-analyses including historical data from before the mid-1980s. Both found greater rates of loss of coral and recorded a marked decrease in living coral cover on the GBR in 1986, coinciding exactly with the start of large-scale monitoring. We argue that much of the apparent long-term decrease results from combining data from selective, sparse, small-scale studies before 1986 with data from both small-scale studies and large-scale monitoring surveys after that date. The GBR has clearly been changed by human activities and live coral cover has declined overall, but losses of coral in the past 40–50 years have probably been overestimated.     

Legacy effects of anthropogenic disturbances modulate dynamics in the world's coral reefs

Rapidly changing conditions alter disturbance patterns, highlighting the need to better understand how the transition from pulse disturbances to more persistent stress will impact ecosystem dynamics. We conducted a global analysis of the impacts of 11 types of disturbances on reef integrity using the rate of change of coral cover as a measure of damage. Then, we evaluated how the magnitude of the damage due to thermal stress, cyclones, and diseases varied among tropical Atlantic and Indo-Pacific reefs and whether the cumulative impact of thermal stress and cyclones was able to modulate the responses of reefs to future events. We found that reef damage largely depends on the condition of a reef before a disturbance, disturbance intensity, and biogeographic region, regardless of the type of disturbance. Changes in coral cover after thermal stress events were largely influenced by the cumulative stress of past disturbances and did not depend on disturbance intensity or initial coral cover, which suggests that an ecological memory is present within coral communities. In contrast, the effect of cyclones (and likely other physical impacts) was primarily modulated by the initial reef condition and did not appear to be influenced by previous impacts. Our findings also underscore that coral reefs can recover if stressful conditions decrease, yet the lack of action to reduce anthropogenic impacts and greenhouse gas emissions continues to trigger reef degradation. We uphold that evidence-based strategies can guide managers to make better decisions to prepare for future disturbances.     

Shifting ecological baselines and the demise of Acropora cervicornis in the western North Atlantic and Caribbean Province: a Pleistocene perspective

 In recent years, marine scientists have become increasingly alarmed over the decline of live coral cover throughout the Caribbean and tropical western Atlantic region. The Holocene and Pleistocene fossil record of coral reefs from this region potentially provides a wealth of long-term ecologic information with which to assess the historical record of changes in shallow water coral reef communities. Before fossil data can be applied to the modern reef system, critical problems involving fossil preservation must be addressed. Moreover, it must be demonstrated that the classic reef coral zonation patterns described in the early days of coral reef ecology, and upon which “healthy” versus “unhealthy” reefs are determined, are themselves representative of reefs that existed prior to any human influence. To address these issues, we have conducted systematic censuses of life and death assemblages on modern “healthy” patch reefs in the Florida reef tract that conform to the classic Caribbean model of reef coral zonation, and a patch reef in the Bahamas that is currently undergoing a transition in coral dominance that is part of a greater Caribbean-wide phenomenon. Results were compared to censuses of ancient reef assemblages preserved in Pleistocene limestones in close proximity to each modern reef. We have determined that the Pleistocene fossil record of coral reefs may be used to calibrate an ecological baseline with which to compare modern reef assemblages, and suggest that the current and rapid decline of Acropora cervicornis observed on a Bahamian patch reef may be a unique event that contrasts with the long-term persistence of this taxon during Pleistocene and Holocene time. Accepted: 19 May 1998     

Region‐wide temporal and spatial variation in Caribbean reef architecture: is coral cover the whole story?

The architectural complexity of coral reefs is largely generated by reef‐building corals, yet the effects of current regional‐scale declines in coral cover on reef complexity are poorly understood. In particular, both the extent to which declines in coral cover lead to declines in complexity and the length of time it takes for reefs to collapse following coral mortality are unknown. Here we assess the extent of temporal and spatial covariation between coral cover and reef architectural complexity using a Caribbean‐wide dataset of temporally replicated estimates spanning four decades. Both coral cover and architectural complexity have declined rapidly over time, with little evidence of a time‐lag. However, annual rates of change in coral cover and complexity do not covary, and levels of complexity vary greatly among reefs with similar coral cover. These findings suggest that the stressors influencing Caribbean reefs are sufficiently severe and widespread to produce similar regional‐scale declines in coral cover and reef complexity, even though reef architectural complexity is not a direct function of coral cover at local scales. Given that architectural complexity is not a simple function of coral cover, it is important that conservation monitoring and restoration give due consideration to both architecture and coral cover. This will help ensure that the ecosystem services supported by architectural complexity, such as nutrient recycling, dissipation of wave energy, fish production and diversity, are maintained and enhanced.