Long‐term and widespread changes in agricultural practices influence ring‐necked pheasant abundance in California

Declines in bird populations in agricultural regions of North America and Europe have been attributed to agricultural industrialization, increases in use of agrochemical application, and increased predation related to habitat modification. Based on count data compiled from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) from 1974 to 2012, Christmas Bird Count (CBC) collected from 1914 to 2013, and hunter data from Annual Game Take Survey (AGTS) for years 1948–2010, ring‐necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) in California have experienced substantial declines in agricultural environments. Using a modeling approach that integrates all three forms of survey data into a joint response abundance index, we found pheasant abundance was related to the amount of harvested and unharvested crop land, types of crops produced, amount of total pesticide applied, minimum temperature, precipitation, and numbers of avian competitors and predators. Specifically, major changes in agricultural practices over the last three decades were associated with declines in pheasant numbers and likely reflected widespread loss of habitat. For example, increases in cropland were associated with increased pheasant abundance during early years of study but this effect decreased through time, such that no association in recent years was evidenced. A post hoc analysis revealed that crops beneficial to pheasant abundance (e.g., barley) have declined substantially in recent decades and were replaced by less advantageous crops (e.g., nut trees). An additional analysis using a restricted data set (1990–2013) indicated recent negative impacts on pheasant numbers associated with land use practices were also associated with relatively high levels of pesticide application. Our results may provide valuable information for management policies aimed at reducing widespread declines in pheasant populations in California and may be applicable to other avian species within agricultural settings. Furthermore, this general analytical approach is not limited to pheasants and could be applied to other taxa for which multiple survey data sources exist.     

Long‐term trends in restoration and associated land treatments in the southwestern United States

Restoration treatments, such as revegetation with seeding or invasive species removal, have been applied on U.S. public lands for decades. Temporal trends in these management actions have not been extensively summarized previously, particularly in the southwestern United States where invasive plant species, drought, and fire have altered dryland ecosystems. We assessed long‐term (1940–2010) trends in restoration using approximately 4,000 vegetation treatments conducted on Bureau of Land Management lands across the southwestern United States. We found that since 1940, the proportions of seeding and vegetation/soil manipulation (e.g. vegetation removal or plowing) treatments have declined, while the proportions of prescribed burn and invasive species treatments have increased. Treatments in pinyon‐juniper and big sagebrush communities declined in comparison to treatments in desert scrub, creosote bush, and riparian woodland communities. Restoration‐focused treatment objectives increased relative to resource extraction objectives. Species richness and proportion of native species used in seeding treatments also increased. Inflation‐adjusted costs per area rose 750% for vegetation/soil manipulation, 600% for seeding, and 400% for prescribed burn treatments in the decades from 1981 to 2010. Seeding treatments were implemented in warmer and drier years when compared to the climate conditions of the entire study period and warmer and wetter years relative to several years before and after the treatment. These results suggest that treatments over a 70‐year period on public lands in the southwestern United States are shifting toward restoration practices that are increasingly large, expensive, and related to fire and invasive species control.     

Protected areas act as a buffer against detrimental effects of climate change—Evidence from large‐scale,long‐term abundance data

Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large‐scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s–80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s–80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.     

Land‐sparing agriculture sustains higher levels of avian functional diversity than land sharing

The ecological impacts of meeting rising demands for food production can potentially be mitigated by two competing land‐use strategies: off‐setting natural habitats through intensification of existing farmland (land sparing), or elevating biodiversity within the agricultural matrix via the integration of “wildlife‐friendly” habitat features (land sharing). However, a key unanswered question is whether sparing or sharing farming would best conserve functional diversity, which can promote ecosystem stability and resilience to future land‐use change. Focusing on bird communities in tropical cloud forests of the Colombian Andes, we test the performance of each strategy in conserving functional diversity. We show that multiple components of avian functional diversity in farmland are positively related to the proximity and extent of natural forest. Using landscape and community simulations, we also show that land‐sparing agriculture conserves greater functional diversity and predicts higher abundance of species supplying key ecological functions than land sharing, with sharing becoming progressively inferior with increasing isolation from remnant forest. These results suggest low‐intensity agriculture is likely to conserve little functional diversity unless large blocks of adjacent natural habitat are protected, consistent with land sparing. To ensure the retention of functionally diverse ecosystems, we urgently need to implement mechanisms for increasing farmland productivity whilst protecting spared land.     

Long‐term survival of humpback whales radio‐tagged in Alaska from 1976 through 1978

Invasive tags designed to provide information on animal movements through radio or satellite monitoring have tremendous potential for the study of whales and other cetaceans. However, to date there have been no published studies on the survival of tagged animals over periods of years or decades. Researchers from the National Marine Mammal Laboratory and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution tracked five humpback whales with implanted radio tags in southeastern Alaska in August 1976 and July 1977, and tracked two humpback whales in Prince William Sound, Alaska, in June 1978. All seven of these individually identified humpback whales were resighted at least 20 yr after first being tagged, and five of the seven have been observed for more than 30 yr; some of them are among the most resighted humpback whales in the North Pacific. Photos of tagging sites taken during and subsequent to tagging operations show persistent but superficial scarring and no indication of infection. These pioneering field studies demonstrated both long‐term survival of the whales and the short‐term effects of deploying radio tags, which at the time were larger and more invasive than those typically used today.     

An analysis of long‐term trends in the abundance of domestic livestock and free‐roaming dogs in the Bale Mountains National Park,Ethiopia

Livestock inside the Bale Mountains National Park poses a threat to the persistence of the Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis) through grazing‐induced habitat degradation and the transmission of diseases from the domestic dogs kept alongside the herds. We used a 21‐ year time series to explore long‐term trends in the numbers of cattle, caprines and free‐roaming domestic dogs in two core Ethiopian wolf areas (the Web valley and the Sanetti plateau) and to test whether seasonal variations in primary productivity underlies the current livestock production system. No trends in livestock numbers were detected in the Web valley, where livestock are most abundant and graze seasonally. Livestock numbers have increased significantly on most of the Sanetti plateau, grazing all year‐round albeit at a lower intensity. Livestock use of the Web valley was positively correlated with vegetation productivity as derived from remotely sensed data, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). On the Sanetti plateau, neither primary productivity nor livestock numbers showed signs of strong seasonality. The current livestock production system has the potential to degrade the vegetation that sustains the wolves’ rodent prey while an increase in free‐roaming domestic dogs in parts of their range may heighten the risk of disease transmission.     

Long‐distance geneflow and habitat specificity of the rock‐dwelling coppertail skink,Ctenotus taeniolatus

Rock boulders or ‘bush‐rocks’ provide essential habitat for many organisms and there has been interest in rehabilitating areas denuded of rock with artificial substitutes. We examine whether the density and size of bush rock influences the density of the coppertail skink (Ctenotus taeniolatus). The success of habitat rehabilitation is contingent on dispersal of rock‐dwelling organisms into areas that have been remediated. To gauge the likelihood of this we characterize geneflow of coppertail skinks among discrete patches of rocky habitat associated with ridge tops. We genotyped 154 individuals from seven localities at six microsatellite DNA loci and from a subset of these individuals we obtained sequence data from the mitochondrial ND4 region. Our field survey established that lizard density was positively associated with the availability of suitably sized bush‐rock (P < 0.001), highlighting the importance of maintaining this habitat element, or replacing it where it has been lost. Despite the presence of habitat features that might be presumed as barriers to dispersal for coppertail skinks, such as intervening gullies and dense vegetation, our genetic data demonstrated high levels of geneflow among rocky ridge tops. Levels of partitioning estimated by global F_ST were significant but low for both microsatellite (F_ST = 0.020) and mitochondrial data (F_ST = 0.113). Spatial autocorrelation of genotypic similarity supports our conclusion of regular longer‐distance geneflow, and we infer lower levels of dispersal in juveniles than in adults. This study suggests that dispersal of coppertail skinks can be sufficient to naturally colonize areas of restored habitat.     

Long‐term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea

Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50–100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long‐term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112‐year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid‐1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long‐term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large‐scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem‐based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.     

Long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods,data management,and long‐term population trends

Long‐term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long‐term viability of species, but large‐scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long‐term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long‐term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year‐to‐year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large‐scale and long‐term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long‐term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long‐term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life‐history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long‐term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt.     

Long‐term research avoids spurious and misleading trends in sustainability attributes of no‐till

Agricultural management recommendations based on short‐term studies can produce findings inconsistent with long‐term reality. Here, we test the long‐term environmental sustainability and profitability of continuous no‐till agriculture on yield, soil water availability, and N₂O fluxes. Using a moving window approach, we investigate the development and stability of several attributes of continuous no‐till as compared to conventional till agriculture over a 29‐year period at a site in the upper Midwest, US. Over a decade is needed to detect the consistent effects of no‐till. Both crop yield and soil water availability required 15 years or longer to generate patterns consistent with 29‐year trends. Only marginal trends for N₂O fluxes appeared in this period. Relative profitability analysis suggests that after initial implementation, 86% of periods between 10 and 29 years recuperated the initial expense of no‐till implementation, with the probability of higher relative profit increasing with longevity. Importantly, statistically significant but misleading short‐term trends appeared in more than 20% of the periods examined. Results underscore the importance of decadal and longer studies for revealing consistent dynamics and emergent outcomes of no‐till agriculture, shown to be beneficial in the long term.     

Predictors of Long‐term Weight Maintenance

Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate available variables of a long‐term weight maintenance study to investigate possible factors predisposing to weight regain after a period of weight loss. Research Methods and Procedures: The Maastricht Weight Maintenance Study is an ongoing longitudinal study of healthy men and women (29 men and 62 women; 18 to 65 years of age; BMI = 30.2 ± 3.1 kg/m²). A variety of parameters were measured before and after a very‐low‐energy diet and after a follow‐up of at least 2 years. Results: Mean weight loss was 7.9 ± 3.6 kg, and percent weight regain was 113.8 ± 98.1%. Percent BMI regain was negatively associated with an increase in dietary restraint (r = ?0.47, p < 0.05). Percent weight regain was negatively correlated with baseline resting metabolic rate (r = ?0.38, p = 0.01) and baseline fat mass (r = ?0.24, p = 0.05) and positively correlated with the magnitude of change in body weight (BW) expressed as maximum amplitude of BW (r = 0.21, p < 0.05). In addition, amplitude of BW was positively correlated with the frequency of dieting (r = 0.57, p < 0.01). Discussion: The best predictors for weight maintenance after weight loss were an increase in dietary restraint during weight loss, a high baseline resting metabolic rate, a relatively high baseline fat mass favoring a fat‐free mass–sparing effect during weight loss, a rather stable BW, and a low frequency of dieting. Therefore, BW maintenance after BW loss seems to be a multifactorial issue, including mechanisms that regulate an individuals’ energy expenditure, body composition, and eating behavior in such a way that energy homeostasis is maintained.     

The effect of terrain and female density on survival of neonatal white‐tailed deer and mule deer fawns

Juvenile survival is a highly variable life‐history trait that is critical to population growth. Antipredator tactics, including an animal's use of its physical and social environment, are critical to juvenile survival. Here, we tested the hypothesis that habitat and social characteristics influence coyote (Canis latrans) predation on white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (O. hemionus) fawns in similar ways during the neonatal period. This would contrast to winter when the habitat and social characteristics that provide the most safety for each species differ. We monitored seven cohorts of white‐tailed deer and mule deer fawns at a grassland study site in Alberta, Canada. We used logistic regression and a model selection procedure to determine how habitat characteristics, climatic conditions, and female density influenced fawn survival during the first 8 weeks of life. Fawn survival improved after springs with productive vegetation (high integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values). Fawns that used steeper terrain were more likely to survive. Fawns of both species had improved survival in years with higher densities of mule deer females, but not with higher densities of white‐tailed deer females, as predicted if they benefit from protection by mule deer. Our results suggest that topographical variation is a critical resource for neonates of many ungulate species, even species like white‐tailed deer that use more gentle terrain when older. Further, our results raise the possibility that neonatal white‐tailed fawns may benefit from associating with mule deer females, which may contribute to the expansion of white‐tailed deer into areas occupied by mule deer.     

Land‐use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa

Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R² = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change influence broad‐scale avian population declines

Climate and land‐use changes are expected to be the primary drivers of future global biodiversity loss. Although theory suggests that these factors impact species synergistically, past studies have either focused on only one in isolation or have substituted space for time, which often results in confounding between drivers. Tests of synergistic effects require congruent time series on animal populations, climate change and land‐use change replicated across landscapes that span the gradient of correlations between the drivers of change. Using a unique time series of high‐resolution climate (measured as temperature and precipitation) and land‐use change (measured as forest change) data, we show that these drivers of global change act synergistically to influence forest bird population declines over 29 years in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Nearly half of the species examined had declined over this time. Populations declined most in response to loss of early seral and mature forest, with responses to loss of early seral forest amplified in landscapes that had warmed over time. In addition, birds declined more in response to loss of mature forest in areas that had dried over time. Climate change did not appear to impact populations in landscapes with limited habitat loss, except when those landscapes were initially warmer than the average landscape. Our results provide some of the first empirical evidence of synergistic effects of climate and land‐use change on animal population dynamics, suggesting accelerated loss of biodiversity in areas under pressure from multiple global change drivers. Furthermore, our findings suggest strong spatial variability in the impacts of climate change and highlight the need for future studies to evaluate multiple drivers simultaneously to avoid potential misattribution of effects.     

Relative importance of long‐term changes in climate and land‐use on the phenology and abundance of legume crop specialist and generalist aphids

Abstract Insect populations are prone to respond to global changes through shifts in phenology, distribution and abundance. However, global changes cover several factors such as climate and land-use, the relative importance of these being largely unknown. Here, we aim at disentangling the effects of climate, land-use, and geographical drivers on aphid abundance and phenology in France, at a regional scale and over the last 40 years. We used aerial data obtained from suction traps between 1978 and 2015 on five aphid species varying in their degree of specialization to legumes, along with climate, legume crop area and geographical data. Effects of environmental and geographical variables on aphid annual abundance and spring migration dates were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We found that within the last four decades, aphids have advanced their spring migration by a month, mostly due to the increase in temperature early in the year, and their abundance decreased by half on average, presumably in response to a combination of factors. The influence of legume crop area decreased with the degree of specialization of the aphid species to such crops. The effect of geographical variation was high even when controlling for environmental variables, suggesting that many other spatially structured processes act on aphid population characteristics. Multifactorial analyses helped to partition the effects of different global change drivers. Climate and land-use changes have strong effects on aphid populations, with important implications for future agriculture. Additionally, trait-based response variation could have major consequences at the community scale.     

Long‐term changes in the fish assemblage of a neotropical hydroelectric reservoir

The changes in the fish assemblage of the Capivara Reservoir, Brazil, were assessed over a 20 year period. Of 50 native fishes present in the initial samples, 27 were no longer present in the final samples, but there had been an addition of 11 invasive fishes, suggesting the occurrence of substantial shifts in fish diversity and abundance.     

Designing optimal human‐modified landscapes for forest biodiversity conservation

Agriculture and development transform forest ecosystems to human‐modified landscapes. Decades of research in ecology have generated myriad concepts for the appropriate management of these landscapes. Yet, these concepts are often contradictory and apply at different spatial scales, making the design of biodiversity‐friendly landscapes challenging. Here, we combine concepts with empirical support to design optimal landscape scenarios for forest‐dwelling species. The supported concepts indicate that appropriately sized landscapes should contain ≥ 40% forest cover, although higher percentages are likely needed in the tropics. Forest cover should be configured with c. 10% in a very large forest patch, and the remaining 30% in many evenly dispersed smaller patches and semi‐natural treed elements (e.g. vegetation corridors). Importantly, the patches should be embedded in a high‐quality matrix. The proposed landscape scenarios represent an optimal compromise between delivery of goods and services to humans and preserving most forest wildlife, and can therefore guide forest preservation and restoration strategies.     

Long‐term influence of sod cutting depth on the restoration of degraded wet heaths

Temperate heaths have an unfavorable conservation status in most European biogeographical regions. Increasing nitrogen levels promote competitive grass species such as Molinia caerulea, which is a main threat to heathland conservation in Europe. This article investigates the long‐term influence of sod cutting and the resulting changes in soil properties on the heath composition, integrity, and structure. In 15 nature reserves across the northern half of Belgium, we used (1) a large number of plots (203); (2) a broad range of sod cut depths (2–40 cm), and (3) a temporal dimension that describes how long the effects of sod cutting persist (census up to 19 years after sod cutting). Multivariate analyses were used in order to explore the influence of sod cut depth and time after sod cutting on the soil and vegetation properties. There was a positive relationship between sod cut depth and soil pH and water level, and a negative relationship with Al³⁺, NH₄⁺, and total organic matter (TOM). However, only a limited number of typical (target) species appeared after sod cutting, and then only weakly. Most of the time they remained a minor component of the restored vegetation. Moreover, M. caerulea reappeared and its cover significantly increased during the years following sod cutting. Although we were able to show that sod cut depth has a differential effect on soil properties and vegetation recovery, it also appeared that sod cutting does not restore wet heaths in the long term when applied in regions with high nitrogen deposition.