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1.
Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom‐up processes, the top‐down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate‐driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long‐term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom‐up (NAO control) and top‐down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales.  相似文献   

2.
Productivity and trophic structure of aquatic ecosystems result from a complex interplay of bottom‐up and top‐down forces that operate across benthic and pelagic food web compartments. Projected global changes urge the question how this interplay will be affected by browning (increasing input of terrestrial dissolved organic matter), nutrient enrichment and warming. We explored this with a process‐based model of a shallow lake food web consisting of benthic and pelagic components (abiotic resources, primary producers, grazers, carnivores), and compared model expectations with the results of a browning and warming experiment in nutrient‐poor ponds harboring a boreal lake community. Under low nutrient conditions, the model makes three major predictions. (a) Browning reduces light and increases nutrient supply; this decreases benthic and increases pelagic production, gradually shifting productivity from the benthic to the pelagic habitat. (b) Because of active habitat choice, fish exert top‐down control on grazers and benefit primary producers primarily in the more productive of the two habitats. (c) Warming relaxes top‐down control of grazers by fish and decreases primary producer biomass, but effects of warming are generally small compared to effects of browning and nutrient supply. Experimental results were consistent with most model predictions for browning: light penetration, benthic algal production, and zoobenthos biomass decreased, and pelagic nutrients and pelagic algal production increased with browning. Also consistent with expectations, warming had negative effects on benthic and pelagic algal biomass and weak effects on algal production and zoobenthos and zooplankton biomass. Inconsistent with expectations, browning had no effect on zooplankton and warming effects on fish depended on browning. The model is applicable also to nutrient‐rich systems, and we propose that it is a useful tool for the exploration of the consequences of different climate change scenarios for productivity and food web dynamics in shallow lakes, the worldwide most common lake type.  相似文献   

3.
Coastal embayments are at risk of impacts by climate change drivers such as ocean warming, sea level rise and alteration in precipitation regimes. The response of the ecosystem to these drivers is highly dependent on their magnitude of change, but also on physical characteristics such as bay morphology and river discharge, which play key roles in water residence time and hence estuarine functioning. These considerations are especially relevant for bivalve aquaculture sites, where the cultured biomass can alter ecosystem dynamics. The combination of climate change, physical and aquaculture drivers can result in synergistic/antagonistic and nonlinear processes. A spatially explicit model was constructed to explore effects of the physical environment (bay geomorphic type, freshwater inputs), climate change drivers (sea level, temperature, precipitation) and aquaculture (bivalve species, stock) on ecosystem functioning. A factorial design led to 336 scenarios (48 hydrodynamic × 7 management). Model outcomes suggest that the physical environment controls estuarine functioning given its influence on primary productivity (bottom‐up control dominated by riverine nutrients) and horizontal advection with the open ocean (dominated by bay geomorphic type). The intensity of bivalve aquaculture ultimately determines the bivalve–phytoplankton trophic interaction, which can range from a bottom‐up control triggered by ammonia excretion to a top‐down control via feeding. Results also suggest that temperature is the strongest climate change driver due to its influence on the metabolism of poikilothermic organisms (e.g. zooplankton and bivalves), which ultimately causes a concomitant increase of top‐down pressure on phytoplankton. Given the different thermal tolerance of cultured species, temperature is also critical to sort winners from losers, benefiting Crassostrea virginica over Mytilus edulis under the specific conditions tested in this numerical exercise. In general, it is predicted that bays with large rivers and high exchange with the open ocean will be more resilient under climate change when bivalve aquaculture is present.  相似文献   

4.
Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long‐lived, wide‐ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea‐surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large‐scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom‐up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large‐scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself.  相似文献   

5.
The degree to which ecosystems are regulated through bottom‐up, top‐down, or direct physical processes represents a long‐standing issue in ecology, with important consequences for resource management and conservation. In marine ecosystems, the role of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing has been shown to vary over spatio‐temporal scales, often linked to highly variable and heterogeneously distributed environmental conditions. Ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific have been suggested to be predominately bottom‐up regulated. However, it remains unknown to what extent top‐down regulation occurs, or whether the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom‐up, top‐down, and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) using a generalized food web model. This statistical approach is based on nonlinear threshold models and a long‐term data set (~60 years) covering multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to predatory fish. We found bottom‐up control to be the primary mode of ecosystem regulation. However, our results also demonstrate an alternative mode of regulation represented by interacting bottom‐up and top‐down forcing, analogous to wasp‐waist dynamics, but occurring across multiple trophic levels and only during periods of reduced bottom‐up forcing (i.e., weak upwelling, low nutrient concentrations, and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean‐atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as highlight potential concerns for marine and fisheries management by demonstrating increased sensitivity of pelagic fish to exploitation during El Niño.  相似文献   

6.
Primary consumers are under strong selection from resource (‘bottom‐up’) and consumer (‘top‐down’) controls, but the relative importance of these selective forces is unknown. We performed a meta‐analysis to compare the strength of top‐down and bottom‐up forces on consumer fitness, considering multiple predictors that can modulate these effects: diet breadth, feeding guild, habitat/environment, type of bottom‐up effects, type of top‐down effects and how consumer fitness effects are measured. We focused our analyses on the most diverse group of primary consumers, herbivorous insects, and found that in general top‐down forces were stronger than bottom‐up forces. Notably, chewing, sucking and gall‐making herbivores were more affected by top‐down than bottom‐up forces, top‐down forces were stronger than bottom‐up in both natural and controlled (cultivated) environments, and parasitoids and predators had equally strong top‐down effects on insect herbivores. Future studies should broaden the scope of focal consumers, particularly in understudied terrestrial systems, guilds, taxonomic groups and top‐down controls (e.g. pathogens), and test for more complex indirect community interactions. Our results demonstrate the surprising strength of forces exerted by natural enemies on herbivorous insects, and thus the necessity of using a tri‐trophic approach when studying insect‐plant interactions.  相似文献   

7.
Nutrient pollution and reduced grazing each can stimulate algal blooms as shown by numerous experiments. But because experiments rarely incorporate natural variation in environmental factors and biodiversity, conditions determining the relative strength of bottom–up and top–down forcing remain unresolved. We factorially added nutrients and reduced grazing at 15 sites across the range of the marine foundation species eelgrass (Zostera marina) to quantify how top–down and bottom–up control interact with natural gradients in biodiversity and environmental forcing. Experiments confirmed modest top–down control of algae, whereas fertilisation had no general effect. Unexpectedly, grazer and algal biomass were better predicted by cross‐site variation in grazer and eelgrass diversity than by global environmental gradients. Moreover, these large‐scale patterns corresponded strikingly with prior small‐scale experiments. Our results link global and local evidence that biodiversity and top–down control strongly influence functioning of threatened seagrass ecosystems, and suggest that biodiversity is comparably important to global change stressors.  相似文献   

8.
Ecologists have extensively investigated the effect of warming on consumer–resource interactions, with experiments revealing that warming can strengthen, weaken or have no net effect on top‐down control of resources. These experiments have inspired a body of theoretical work to explain the variation in the effect of warming on top‐down control. However, there has been no quantitative attempt to reconcile theory with outcomes from empirical studies. To address the gap between theory and experiment, we performed a meta‐analysis to examine the combined effect of experimental warming and top‐down control on resource biomass and determined potential sources of variation across experiments. We show that differences in experimental outcomes are related to systematic variation in the geographical distribution of studies. Specifically, warming strengthened top‐down control when experiments were conducted in colder regions, but had the opposite effect in warmer regions. Furthermore, we found that differences in the thermoregulation strategy of the consumer and openness of experimental arenas to dispersal can contribute to some deviation from the overall geographical pattern. These results reconcile empirical findings and support the expectation of geographical variation in the response of consumer–resource interactions to warming.  相似文献   

9.
Species extinctions and declines are occurring globally and commonly have cascading effects on ecosystems. In Australia, mammal extinctions have been extensive, particularly in arid areas, where precipitation drives ecosystems. Many ecologically extinct mammals feed on soil‐dwelling insects. However, how this top‐down pressure affected their prey and how this contrasts with the bottom‐up impacts of fluctuating precipitation remains unclear. We constructed a long‐term exclusion experiment in a multi‐species mammal reintroduction zone in semi‐arid Australia to test how top‐down (reintroduced mammals) and bottom‐up (precipitation) factors affect root‐feeding chafer beetles (Coleoptera: Melolonthinae). We used emergence traps in ten replicate 20 × 20 m plots of control, exclusion and procedural control treatments to trap chafers biannually from 2009 to 2015. Annual precipitation during this period varied from 173 to 481 mm. Mammal exclusion did not affect chafers, indicating that top‐down regulation was not important. Instead, chafer abundance, species density and biomass increased with precipitation. Chafer body size and assemblage composition were best predicted by sampling year, suggesting that random drift determined species abundances. Increased resource availability therefore favoured all species similarly. We thus found no evidence that mammal predation alters chafer populations and conclude that they may be driven primarily by bottom‐up processes. Further research should determine if the cascading effects of species loss are less important for herbivores generally than for higher level trophic groups and the role of ecosystem stability in mediating these patterns.  相似文献   

10.
Benthic invertebrates mediate bottom–up and top–down influences in aquatic food webs, and changes in the abundance or traits of invertebrates can alter the strength of top–down effects. Studies assessing the role of invertebrate abundance and behavior as controls on food web structure are rare at the whole ecosystem scale. Here we use a comparative approach to investigate bottom–up and top–down influences on whole anchialine pond ecosystems in coastal Hawai‘i. In these ponds, a single species of endemic atyid shrimp (Halocaridina rubra) is believed to structure epilithon communities. Many Hawaiian anchialine ponds and their endemic fauna, however, have been greatly altered by bottom–up (increased nutrient enrichment) and top–down (introduced fish predators) disturbances from human development. We present the results of a survey of dissolved nutrient concentrations, epilithon biomass and composition, and H. rubra abundance and behavior in anchialine ponds with and without invasive predatory fish along a nutrient concentration gradient on the North Kona coast of Hawai‘i. We use linear models to assess 1) the effects of nutrient loading and fish introductions on pond food web structure and 2) the role of shrimp density and behavior in effecting that change. We find evidence for bottom–up food web control, in that nutrients were associated with increased epilithon biomass, autotrophy and nutrient content as well as increased abundance and size of H. rubra. We also find evidence for top–down control, as ponds with invasive predatory fish had higher epilithon biomass, productivity, and nutrient content. Top–down effects were transmitted by both altered H. rubra abundance, which changed the biomass of epilithon, and H. rubra behavior, which changed the composition of the epilithon. Our study extends experimental findings on bottom–up and top–down control to the whole ecosystem scale and finds evidence for qualitatively different effects of trait‐ and density‐mediated change in top–down influences.  相似文献   

11.
Increases in phytoplankton biomass have been widely observed over the past decades, even in lakes experiencing nutrient reduction. However, the mechanisms giving rise to this trend remain unclear. Here, we unveil the potential mechanisms through quantifying the relative contribution of bottom–up versus top–down control in determining biomasses of phytoplankton assemblages in Lake Geneva. Specifically, we apply nonlinear time series analysis, convergent cross mapping (CCM), to decipher the degree of bottom–up versus top–down control among phytoplankton assemblages via quantifying 1) causal links between environmental factors and various phytoplankton assemblages and 2) the relative importance of bottom–up, top–down, and environmental effects. We show that the recent increase in total phytoplankton biomass, albeit with phosphorus reduction, was mainly caused by a particular phytoplankton assemblage which was better adapted to the re‐oligotrophicated environment characterized by relatively low phosphorus concentrations and warm water temperature, and poorly controlled by zooplankton grazing. Our findings suggest that zooplankton act as a critical driver of phytoplankton biomass and strongly impact the dynamics of recovery from eutrophication. Therefore, our phytoplankton assemblage approach in combination with causal identification of top–down versus bottom–up controls provides insights into the reason why phytoplankton biomass may increase in lakes undergoing phosphorus reduction.  相似文献   

12.
Biofilms are dynamic players in biogeochemical cycling in running waters and are subjected to environmental stressors like those provoked by climate change. We investigated whether a 2°C increase in flowing water would affect prokaryotic community composition and heterotrophic metabolic activities of biofilms grown under light or dark conditions. Neither light nor temperature treatments were relevant for selecting a specific bacterial community at initial phases (7‐day‐old biofilms), but both variables affected the composition and function of mature biofilms (28‐day‐old). In dark‐grown biofilms, changes in the prokaryotic community composition due to warming were mainly related to rotifer grazing, but no significant changes were observed in functional fingerprints. In light‐grown biofilms, warming also affected protozoan densities, but its effect on prokaryotic density and composition was less evident. In contrast, heterotrophic metabolic activities in light‐grown biofilms under warming showed a decrease in the functional diversity towards a specialized use of several carbohydrates. Results suggest that prokaryotes are functionally redundant in dark biofilms but functionally plastic in light biofilms. The more complex and self‐serving light‐grown biofilm determines a more buffered response to temperature than dark‐grown biofilms. Despite the moderate increase in temperature of only 2°C, warming conditions drive significant changes in freshwater biofilms, which responded by finely tuning a complex network of interactions among microbial populations within the biofilm matrix.  相似文献   

13.
14.
Globally, soil microbes preside over vast carbon stores, and both microbial biomass and activity are known to be regulated by bottom‐up controls, that is, limitation by nutrients and energy. However, there is evidence that grazing by protozoans exerts top‐down controls on biomass. Here, we investigate top‐down control by phage on soil microbes using an experimental site near Barrow, Alaska (71°N, 157°W) during the 2007 growing season. Soil measurements were taken from sites that covered a range of microtopographical features within a drained and thawed lake basin including high‐ and low‐centred ice‐wedge polygons to estimate the availability of carbon and nitrogen for microbes. Using both field and laboratory experiments, we successfully increased both microbial biomass and respiration by decreasing phage populations. The addition of carbon and nutrients to soils had no significant effects on biomass or respiration, indicating a lack of bottom‐up controls. Additionally, we present the first use of tea extracts as a potent anti‐phage agent in soils. Our results suggest that top‐down controls, such as phage predation, are critical to regulation of microbial activities in Arctic soils.  相似文献   

15.
Ocean oligotrophication concurrent with warming weakens the capacity of marine primary producers to support marine food webs and act as a CO2 sink, and is believed to result from reduced nutrient inputs associated to the stabilization of the thermocline. However, nutrient supply in the oligotrophic ocean is largely dependent on the recycling of organic matter. This involves hydrolytic processes catalyzed by extracellular enzymes released by bacteria, which temperature dependence has not yet been evaluated. Here, we report a global assessment of the temperature‐sensitivity, as represented by the activation energies (Ea), of extracellular β‐glucosidase (βG), leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) and alkaline phosphatase (AP) enzymatic activities, which enable the uptake by bacteria of substrates rich in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, respectively. These Ea were calculated from two different approaches, temperature experimental manipulations and a space‐for‐time substitution approach, which generated congruent results. The three activities showed contrasting Ea in the subtropical and tropical ocean, with βG increasing the fastest with warming, followed by LAP, while AP showed the smallest increase. The estimated activation energies predict that the hydrolysis products under projected warming scenarios will have higher C:N, C:P and N:P molar ratios than those currently generated, and suggest that the warming of oceanic surface waters leads to a decline in the nutrient supply to the microbial heterotrophic community relative to that of carbon, particularly so for phosphorus, slowing down nutrient recycling and contributing to further ocean oligotrophication.  相似文献   

16.
Global warming is predicted to change ecosystem functioning and structure in Arctic ecosystems by strengthening top‐down species interactions, i.e. predation pressure on small herbivores and interference between predators. Yet, previous research is biased towards the summer season. Due to greater abiotic constraints, Arctic ecosystem characteristics might be more pronounced in winter. Here we test the hypothesis that top‐down species interactions prevail over bottom‐up effects in Scandinavian mountain tundra (Northern Sweden) where effects of climate warming have been observed and top‐down interactions are expected to strengthen. But we test this ‘a priori’ hypothesis in winter and throughout the 3–4 yr rodent cycle, which imposes additional pulsed resource constraints. We used snowtracking data recorded in 12 winters (2004–2015) to analyse the spatial patterns of a tundra predator guild (arctic fox Vulpes lagopus, red fox Vulpes vulpes, wolverine Gulo gulo) and small prey (ptarmigan, Lagopus spp). The a priori top‐down hypothesis was then tested through structural equation modelling, for each phase of the rodent cycle. There was weak support for this hypothesis, with top‐down effects only discerned on arctic fox (weakly, by wolverine) and ptarmigan (by arctic fox) at intermediate and high rodent availability respectively. Overall, bottom‐up constraints appeared more influential on the winter community structure. Cold specialist predators (arctic fox and wolverine) showed variable landscape associations, while the boreal predator (red fox) appeared strongly dependent on productive habitats and ptarmigan abundance. Thus, we suggest that the unpredictability of food resources determines the winter ecology of the cold specialist predators, while the boreal predator relies on resource‐rich habitats. The constraints imposed by winters and temporary resource lows should therefore counteract productivity‐driven ecosystem change and have a stabilising effect on community structure. Hence, the interplay between summer and winter conditions should determine the rate of Arctic ecosystem change in the context of global warming.  相似文献   

17.
1. Understanding the degree to which populations and communities are limited by both bottom‐up and top‐down effects is still a major challenge for ecologists, and manipulation of plant quality, for example, can alter herbivory rates in plants. In addition, biotic defence by ants can directly influence the populations of herbivores, as demonstrated by increased rates of herbivory or increased herbivore density after ant exclusion. The aim of this study was to evaluate bottom‐up and top‐down effects on herbivory rates in a mutualistic ant‐plant. 2. In this study, the role of Azteca alfari ants as biotic defence in individuals of Cecropia pachystachya was investigated experimentally with a simultaneous manipulation of both bottom‐up (fertilisation) and top‐down (ant exclusion) factors. Four treatments were used in a fully factorial design, with 15 replicates for each treatment: (i) control plants, without manipulation; (ii) fertilised plants, ants not manipulated; (iii) unfertilised plants and excluded ants and (iv) fertilised plants and ants excluded. 3. Fertilisation increased the availability of foliar nitrogen in C. pachystachya, and herbivory rates by chewing insects were significantly higher in fertilised plants with ants excluded. 4. Herbivory, however, was more influenced by bottom‐up effects – such as the quality of the host plant – than by top‐down effects caused by ants as biotic defences, reinforcing the crucial role of leaf nutritional quality for herbivory levels experienced by plants. Conditionality in ant defence under increased nutritional quality of leaves through fertilisation might explain increased levels of herbivory in plants with higher leaf nitrogen.  相似文献   

18.
Thermal adaptations of soil microorganisms could mitigate or facilitate global warming effects on soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and soil CO2 efflux. We incubated soil from warmed and control subplots of a forest soil warming experiment to assess whether 9 years of soil warming affected the rates and the temperature sensitivity of the soil CO2 efflux, extracellular enzyme activities, microbial efficiency, and gross N mineralization. Mineral soil (0–10 cm depth) was incubated at temperatures ranging from 3 to 23 °C. No adaptations to long‐term warming were observed regarding the heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (R10 warmed: 2.31 ± 0.15 μmol m?2 s?1, control: 2.34 ± 0.29 μmol m?2 s?1; Q10 warmed: 2.45 ± 0.06, control: 2.45 ± 0.04). Potential enzyme activities increased with incubation temperature, but the temperature sensitivity of the enzymes did not differ between the warmed and the control soils. The ratio of C : N acquiring enzyme activities was significantly higher in the warmed soil. Microbial biomass‐specific respiration rates increased with incubation temperature, but the rates and the temperature sensitivity (Q10 warmed: 2.54 ± 0.23, control 2.75 ± 0.17) did not differ between warmed and control soils. Microbial substrate use efficiency (SUE) declined with increasing incubation temperature in both, warmed and control, soils. SUE and its temperature sensitivity (Q10 warmed: 0.84 ± 0.03, control: 0.88 ± 0.01) did not differ between warmed and control soils either. Gross N mineralization was invariant to incubation temperature and was not affected by long‐term soil warming. Our results indicate that thermal adaptations of the microbial decomposer community are unlikely to occur in C‐rich calcareous temperate forest soils.  相似文献   

19.
We examined the importance of temporal variability in top–down and bottom–up effects on the accumulation of stream periphyton, which are complex associations of autotrophic and heterotrophic microorganisms. Periphyton contributes to primary production and nutrient cycling and serves as a food resource for herbivores (grazers). Periphyton growth is often limited by the availability of nitrogen and phosphorus, and biomass can be controlled by grazers. In this study we experimentally manipulated nutrients and grazers simultaneously to determine the relative contribution of bottom–up and top–down controls on periphyton over time. We used nutrient diffusing substrates to regulate nutrient concentrations and an underwater electric field to exclude grazing insects in three sequential 16–17 day experiments from August to October in montane Colorado, USA. We measured algal biomass, periphyton organic mass, and algal community composition in each experiment and determined densities of streambed insect species, including grazers. Phosphorus was the primary limiting nutrient for algal biomass, but it did not influence periphyton organic mass across all experiments. Effects of nutrient additions on algal biomass and community composition decreased between August and October. Grazed substrates supported reduced periphyton biomass only in the first experiment, corresponding to high benthic abundances of a dominant mayfly grazer (Rhithrogena spp.). Grazed substrates in the first experiment also showed altered algal community composition with reduced diatom relative abundances, presumably in response to selective grazing. We showed that top–down grazing effects were strongest in late summer when grazers were abundant. The effects of phosphorus additions on algal biomass likely decreased over time because temperature became more limiting to growth than nutrients, and because reduced current velocity decreased nutrient uptake rates. These results suggest that investigators should proceed with caution when extending findings based on short‐term experiments. Furthermore, these results support the need for additional seasonal‐scale field research in stream ecology.  相似文献   

20.
“Bottom‐up” influences, that is, masting, plus population density and climate, commonly influence woodland rodent demography. However, “top‐down” influences (predation) also intervene. Here, we assess the impacts of masting, climate, and density on rodent populations placed in the context of what is known about “top‐down” influences. To explain between‐year variations in bank vole Myodes glareolus and wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus population demography, we applied a state‐space model to 33 years of catch‐mark‐release live‐trapping, winter temperature, and precise mast‐collection data. Experimental mast additions aided interpretation. Rodent numbers in European ash Fraxinus excelsior woodland were estimated (May/June, November/December). December–March mean minimum daily temperature represented winter severity. Total marked adult mice/voles (and juveniles in May/June) provided density indices validated against a model‐generated population estimate; this allowed estimation of the structure of a time‐series model and the demographic impacts of the climatic/biological variables. During two winters of insignificant fruit‐fall, 6.79 g/m2 sterilized ash seed (as fruit) was distributed over an equivalent woodland similarly live‐trapped. September–March fruit‐fall strongly increased bank vole spring reproductive rate and winter and summer population growth rates; colder winters weakly reduced winter population growth. September–March fruit‐fall and warmer winters marginally increased wood mouse spring reproductive rate and September–December fruit‐fall weakly elevated summer population growth. Density dependence significantly reduced both species' population growth. Fruit‐fall impacts on demography still appeared after a year. Experimental ash fruit addition confirmed its positive influence on bank vole winter population growth with probable moderation by colder temperatures. The models show the strong impact of masting as a “bottom‐up” influence on rodent demography, emphasizing independent masting and weather influences; delayed effects of masting; and the importance of density dependence and its interaction with masting. We conclude that these rodents show strong “bottom‐up” and density‐dependent influences on demography moderated by winter temperature. “Top‐down” influences appear weak and need further investigation.  相似文献   

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