Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate‐induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.     

Ecosystem response to earlier ice break‐up date: Climate‐driven changes to water temperature,lake‐habitat‐specific production,and trout habitat and resource use

Climate warming has yielded earlier ice break‐up dates in recent decades for lakes leading to water temperature increases, altered habitat, and both increases and decreases to ecosystem productivity. Within lakes, the effect of climate warming on secondary production in littoral and pelagic habitats remains unclear. The intersection of changing habitat productivity and warming water temperatures on salmonids is important for understanding how climate warming will impact mountain ecosystems. We develop and test a conceptual model that expresses how earlier ice break‐up dates influence within lake habitat production, water temperatures and the habitat utilized by, resources obtained and behavior of salmonids in a mountain lake. We measured zoobenthic and zooplankton production from the littoral and pelagic habitats, thermal conditions, and the habitat use, resource use, and fitness of Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We show that earlier ice break‐up conditions created a "resource‐rich" littoral–benthic habitat with increases in zoobenthic production compared to the pelagic habitat which decreased in zooplankton production. Despite the increases in littoral–benthic food resources, trout did not utilize littoral habitat or zoobenthic resources due to longer durations of warm water temperatures in the littoral zone. In addition, 87% of their resources were supported by the pelagic habitat during periods with earlier ice break‐up when pelagic resources were least abundant. The decreased reliance on littoral–benthic resources during earlier ice break‐up caused reduced fitness (mean reduction of 12 g) to trout. Our data show that changes to ice break‐up drive multi‐directional results for resource production within lake habitats and increase the duration of warmer water temperatures in food‐rich littoral habitats. The increased duration of warmer littoral water temperatures reduces the use of energetically efficient habitats culminating in decreased trout fitness.     

A comparison of shallow Danish and Canadian lakes and implications of climate change

1. Winter temperatures differ markedly on the Canadian prairies compared with Denmark. Between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2002, average weekly and monthly temperatures did not drop below 0 °C in the vicinity of Silkeborg, Denmark. Over this same time, weekly average temperatures near Calgary, Alberta, Canada, often dropped below −10 °C for 3–5 weeks and the average monthly temperature was below 0 °C for 2–4 months. Accordingly, winter ice conditions in shallow lakes in Canada and Denmark differed considerably. 2. To assess the implications of winter climate for lake biotic structure and function we compared a number of variables that describe the chemistry and biology of shallow Canadian and Danish lakes that had been chosen to have similar morphometries. 3. The Danish lakes had a fourfold higher ratio of chlorophyll‐a: total phosphorus (TP). Zooplankton : phytoplankton carbon was related to TP and fish abundance in Danish lakes but not in Canadian lakes. There was no significant difference in the ratio log total zooplankton biomass : log TP and the Canadian lakes had a significantly higher proportion of cladocerans that were Daphnia. These differences correspond well with the fact that the Danish lakes have more abundant and diverse fish communities than the Canadian lakes. 4. Our results suggest that severe Canadian winters lead to anoxia under ice and more depauperate fish communities, and stronger zooplankton control on phytoplankton in shallow prairie lakes compared with shallow Danish lakes. If climate change leads to warmer winters and a shorter duration of ice cover, we predict that shallow Canadian prairie lakes will experience increased survivorship of planktivores and stronger control of zooplankton. This, in turn, might decrease zooplankton control on phytoplankton, leading to ‘greener’ lakes on the Canadian prairies.     

Increasingly ice-free winters and their effects on water quality in Sweden’s largest lakes

Mean global air temperatures have steadily increased during recent decades, resulting in an earlier timing of lake ice breakup. In Sweden’s largest lakes, Vänern and Vättern, the breakup of ice has occurred considerably earlier since 1979 and ice-free winters have become more frequent. Comparison between the years when the lakes were ice covered with those when they remained ice-free in terms of 37 lake variables revealed significant differences in water temperatures, sulphate concentrations and the biomass of diatoms in May after ice breakup (P < 0.01). In particular, the biomass of the genus Aulacoseira increased significantly, which may explain increasing complaints about algae that clog fishing-nets, filter-beds and micro-strainers in waterworks in Vänern and Vättern. We assume that Aulacoseira is mainly affected by changes in climate-driven water circulation patterns. In contrast, other observed water quality changes such as changes in sulphate concentration might rather be attributed to changes in atmospheric deposition. To explain water quality changes in Sweden’s largest lakes it is important to consider changes in both climate and atmospheric deposition as well as catchment measures.     

Do warmer winters change variability patterns of physical and chemical lake conditions in Sweden?

In this study, the effect of a warmer winter climate on variability patterns of physical and chemical lake conditions was examined by using monthly air temperature data from 72 meteorological Swedish sites, ice breakup data from 77 Swedish lakes and monthly data of 17 water chemical variables from 11 nutrient-poor Swedish reference lakes during 1988–2005. The results showed significantly increasing variations of lake ice breakup dates and nitrate concentrations over Sweden along with increasing winter air temperatures. Variability patterns of other water chemical variables were not affected by warmer winters. Nitrate concentrations increased their variability in spring and early summer not only between lakes but also within lakes, which was attributed to a climate-induced increase in spring nitrate concentrations in particular in southern Sweden, while summer nitrate concentrations remained rather constant and low all over Sweden (median 10 μg l⁻¹). Since nitrate concentrations play an important role for primary production, highly varying concentrations will be a challenge for biota to adapt.     

Tracking ice phenology by migratory waterbirds: settling phenology and breeding success of species with divergent population trends

Dependence on climate‐driven environmental cues in the initiation of life cycle stages is a critical attribute when assessing vulnerability of species to climate change impacts. This study focused on spring ice phenology as a cue to the settling of migratory waterbirds, asking whether there is an asynchrony between ice phenology and settling phenology that could affect breeding success of six species with divergent population trends. In the 37 study lakes in southeastern Finland, the ice‐out date not only varied considerably between years, but became progressively earlier during the study period, 1991–2018. Settling phenology of all species tracked inter‐annual variation in ice phenology. However, the degree of asynchrony between ice phenology and settling phenology varied between species, allowing discrimination between early and late settlers. Considerable inter‐annual variation also occurred within species, but in only one species did the degree of asynchrony correlate with the ice‐out date: for the horned grebe Podiceps auritus an earlier ice‐out date meant greater asynchrony between settling phenology and ice phenology. The degree of asynchrony between settling phenology and ice phenology did not affect breeding success in any species. However, ice phenology per se affected breeding success of horned grebes: earlier ice‐out was associated with lower annual breeding success. Breeding numbers of horned grebe showed a long‐term decline. Results suggest that short‐distance migratory birds are able to respond to climate change‐driven phenological changes in their breeding environments, and that this ability may not depend on the relative timing of breeding.     

Larger zooplankton in Danish lakes after cold winters: are winter fish kills of importance?

Winter fish kills can be intense under ice in shallow lakes, and have cascading effects on the food web and ultimately on lake water clarity. In maritime Western Europe, winters are usually mild, but occasional colder periods may also have strong effects on lake fish communities. Global warming may have disproportionate effects by delaying freezing and shortening the period of ice coverage. We studied differences in zooplankton (cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers): phytoplankton biomass, zooplankton community structure, and individual body size among 37 Danish lakes of various depths, chemical characteristics, and trophy, by comparing four winters of different severity (mean winter temperatures ranging from −1.19°C in 1996 to +2.9°C in 1995). We found that crustacean mean body sizes were significantly larger in the summer following a severely cold winter. The zooplankton communities in the summer after a cold winter had a significantly larger proportion of larger-bodied species and taxa. Phytoplankton biomass, expressed as chlorophyll-a (chl-a), was lower and zooplankton herbivory (chl-a:TP index), higher, in the summer after the severely cold winter of 1995/1996. All these effects were stronger in shallow lakes than in deep lakes. Changes in zooplankton during summer 1996, compared with other years, were likely caused by fish kills under ice during the preceding severe winter of 1995–1996. Fish kills due to under ice oxygen depletion would be expected to occur earlier and be more complete in the shorter water columns of shallow lakes. With climate change, severe winters are predicted to become less frequent and the winters to be milder and shorter. In general, this is likely to lead to higher winter survival of fish, lower zooplankton grazing of phytoplankton the following summer and more turbid waters, particularly in shallow eutrophic lakes.     

Sensitivity and responses of diatoms to climate warming in lakes heavily influenced by humans

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Impact of temperature on the breeding performance and selection patterns in lesser kestrels Falco naumanni

Adjusting breeding phenology to climate fluctuations can be problematic for migratory birds as they have to account for local environmental conditions on the breeding grounds while migrating from remote wintering areas. Predicting general responses to climate change is not straightforward, because these responses vary between migrant species due to the species‐specific ecological drivers of breeding behaviour. Therefore more information is needed on species with different ecological requirements, including data on heritability of migration, factors driving phenological changes and how climate affects selection pressures. Here, we measure heritability in settlement dates and the effect of local climate at the breeding grounds on settlement dates, reproductive success and selection patterns in a French population of a trans‐Saharan migratory insectivorous raptor, the lesser kestrel Falco naumanni, monitored and ringed since 1996. Heritability of settlement dates was low (0.07 ± 0.03), indicating a weak evolutionary potential. Nevertheless, plasticity in settlement dates in response to temperatures allowed earlier settlement when early spring was warmer than average. Reproductive success and selection patterns were strongly affected by temperature during settlement and chick rearing respectively. Warmer spring decreased selection for earlier settling and warmer early summer increased reproductive success. Interestingly, selection for earlier settling was more intense in cooler springs, contrasting with patterns from passerines lagging behind food peaks. Altogether, these results suggest a positive effect of warmer temperatures on breeding performances of lesser kestrels most likely because the French population is at the coolest boundary of the species European breeding range.     

Warmer and browner waters decrease fish biomass production

Climate change studies have long focused on effects of increasing temperatures, often without considering other simultaneously occurring environmental changes, such as browning of waters. Resolving how the combination of warming and browning of aquatic ecosystems affects fish biomass production is essential for future ecosystem functioning, fisheries, and food security. In this study, we analyzed individual‐ and population‐level fish data from 52 temperate and boreal lakes in Northern Europe, covering large gradients in water temperature and color (absorbance, 420 nm). We show that fish (Eurasian perch, Perca fluviatilis) biomass production decreased with both high water temperatures and brown water color, being lowest in warm and brown lakes. However, while both high temperature and brown water decreased fish biomass production, the mechanisms behind the decrease differed: temperature affected the fish biomass production mainly through a decrease in population standing stock biomass, and through shifts in size‐ and age‐distributions toward a higher proportion of young and small individuals in warm lakes; brown water color, on the other hand, mainly influenced fish biomass production through negative effects on individual body growth and length‐at‐age. In addition to these findings, we observed that the effects of temperature and brown water color on individual‐level processes varied over ontogeny. Body growth only responded positively to higher temperatures among young perch, and brown water color had a stronger negative effect on body growth of old than on young individuals. Thus, to better understand and predict future fish biomass production, it is necessary to integrate both individual‐ and population‐level responses and to acknowledge within‐species variation. Our results suggest that global climate change, leading to browner and warmer waters, may negatively affect fish biomass production, and this effect may be stronger than caused by increased temperature or water color alone.     

Sea ice seasonality during the Holocene, Adélie Land, East Antarctica

Thin sections of laminated cores from different Antarctic coastal areas have demonstrated the potential of diatom species to document climate change at the seasonal scale. Here we present the relative abundances of four diatom species and species groups (Fragilariopsis curta group as a proxy for yearly sea ice cover, F. kerguelensis as a proxy for summer sea-surface temperature, Chaetoceros Hyalochaete resting spores as a proxy for spring sea ice melting and the Thalassiosira antarctica group as a proxy for autumn sea ice formation) in core MD03-2601 retrieved off Adélie Land on the Antarctic continental shelf. These abundances were compared to surface temperatures and sea ice cover modelled over the last 9000 years. Both the marine records and the simulated climate demonstrated a cooler Early Holocene (9000–7700 years BP), a warmer Mid-Holocene (7700–4000 years BP) and a colder Late Holocene (4000–1000 years BP). Yearly sea ice cover followed an inverse pattern to temperatures with less sea ice during the Mid-Holocene Hypsithermal than during the Late Holocene Neoglacial. However, diatom census counts and model output indicate that sea ice spring melting happened earlier in the season, as expected, but that autumn sea ice formation also occurred earlier in the season during the Hypsithermal than during the colder Neoglacial, thereby following seasonal changes in local insolation.     

Ambiguous climate impacts on competition between submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton in shallow lakes

1. Shallow lakes may switch from a state dominated by submerged macrophytes to a phytoplankton‐dominated state when a critical nutrient concentration is exceeded. We explore how climate change may affect this critical nutrient concentration by linking a graphical model to data from 83 lakes along a large climate gradient in South America. 2. The data indicate that in warmer climates, submerged macrophytes may tolerate more underwater shade than in cooler lakes. By contrast, the relationship between phytoplankton biomass [approximated by chlorophyll‐a (chl‐a) or biovolume] and nutrient concentrations did not change consistently along the climate gradient. In warmer climates, the correlation between phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentrations was overall weak, especially at low total phosphorus (TP) concentrations where the chl‐a/ TP ratio could be either low or high. 3. Although the enhanced shade tolerance of submerged plants in warmer lakes might promote the stability of their dominance, the potentially high phytoplankton biomass at low nutrient concentrations suggests an overall low predictability of climate effects. 4. We found that near‐bottom oxygen concentrations are lower in warm lakes than in cooler lakes, implying that anoxic P release from eutrophic sediment in warm lakes likely causes higher TP concentrations in the water column. Subsequently, this may lead to a higher phytoplankton biomass in warmer lakes than in cooler lakes with similar external nutrient loadings. 5. Our results indicate that climate effects on the competitive balance between submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton are not straightforward.     

Early springs and breeding performance in two sympatric duck species with different migration strategies

The capacity of migratory species to adapt to climate change may depend on their migratory and reproductive strategies. For example, reproductive output is likely to be influenced by how well migration and nesting are timed to temporal patterns of food abundance, or by temperature variations during the brood rearing phase. Based on two decades (1988–2009) of waterfowl counts from a boreal catchment in southern Finland we assessed how variation in ice break‐up date affected nesting phenology and breeding success in two sympatric duck species, Mallard Anas platyrhynchos and Eurasian Teal Anas crecca. In Fennoscandia these species have similar breeding habitat requirements but differ in migration distance; Teal migrate roughly seven times as far as do Mallard. Annual ice break‐up date was used as a proxy of spring ‘earliness’ to test the potential effect of climate change on hatching timing and breeding performance. Both species were capable of adapting their nesting phenology, and bred earlier in years when spring was early. However, the interval from ice break‐up to hatching tended to be longer in early springs in both species, so that broods hatched relatively later than in late springs. Ice break‐up date did not appear to influence annual number of broods per pair or annual mean brood size in either species. Our study therefore does not suggest that breeding performance in Teal and Mallard is negatively affected by advancement of ice break‐up at the population level. However, both species showed a within‐season decline in brood size with increasing interval between ice break‐up and hatching. Our study therefore highlights a disparity between individuals in their capacity to adjust to ice break‐up date, late breeders having a lower breeding success than early breeders. We speculate that breeding success of both species may therefore decline should a consistent trend towards earlier springs occur.     

Effect of acclimation temperature on the upper thermal tolerance of Colorado River cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus: thermal limits of a North American salmonid

In an effort to explore the thermal limitations of Colorado River cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus, the critical thermal maxima (T_cmax) of 1+ year Lake Nanita strain O. c. pleuriticus were evaluated when acclimated to 10, 15 and 20° C. The mean ±s.d. T_cmax for O. c. pleuriticus acclimated to 10° C was 24·6 ± 2·0°C (n = 30), for 15° C‐acclimated fish was 26·9 ± 1·5° C (n = 23) and for 20° C‐acclimated fish was 29·4 ± 1·1° C (n = 28); these results showed a marked thermal acclimation effect (Q₁₀ = 1·20). Interestingly, there was a size effect within treatments, wherein the T_cmax of larger fish was significantly lower than that of smaller fish acclimated to the same temperature. The critical thermal tolerances of age 0 year O. c. pleuriticus were also evaluated from three separate populations: Lake Nanita, Trapper Creek and Carr Creek reared under ‘common‐garden’ conditions prior to thermal acclimation. The Trapper Creek population had significantly warmer T_cmax than the Lake Nanita population, but that of the Carr Creek fish had T_cmax similar to both Trapper Creek and Lake Nanita fish. A comparison of these O. c. pleuriticus T_cmax results with those of other stream‐dwelling salmonids suggested that O. c. pleuriticus are less resistant to rapid thermal fluctuations when acclimated to cold temperatures, but can tolerate similar temperatures when acclimated to warmer temperatures.     

Climate and productivity shape fish and invertebrate community structure in subarctic lakes

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Variation of telencephalon morphology of the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) in relation to inferred ecology

We tested the hypothesis that increased telencephalon size has evolved in threespine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from structurally complex habitats using field‐caught samples from one sea‐run (ancestral) and 18 ecologically diverse freshwater (descendant) populations. Freshwater habitats ranged from shallow, structurally complex lakes with benthic‐foraging stickleback (benthics), to deeper, structurally simple lakes in which stickleback depend more heavily on plankton for prey (generalists). Contrary to our expectations, benthics had smaller telencephala than generalists, but the shape of the telencephalon of the sea‐run and benthic populations were more convex laterally. Convex telencephalon shape may indicate enlargement of the dorsolateral region, which is homologous with the tetrapod hippocampus. Telencephalon morphology is also sexually dimorphic, with larger, less convex telencephala in males. Freshwater stickleback from structurally complex habitats have retained the ancestral telencephalon morphology, but populations that feed more in open habitats on plankton have evolved larger, laterally concave telencephala.     

Linking warming effects on phenology,demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population

Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population‐level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black‐tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10‐fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate‐driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black‐tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population‐wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fueled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature‐mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change.     

Baiting improves CPUE in nine‐spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) minnow trap fishery

Whether or not baiting influences stickleback catch per unit effort (CPUE) remains a matter of debate among stickleback researchers: While the opinions about the impact of baiting on CPUE differ, supporting quantitative data are scarce. The effect of baiting and trap type on nine‐spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) CPUE was studied in a field experiment conducted over four consecutive days in a small pond in northeastern Finland. The results show that baited traps yielded better (mean CPUE = 1.24 fish/trap/d) catches than unbaited traps (mean CPUE = 0.66); however, there were also differences in CPUE depending on the type of collapsible trap that was used. The trap type effect on CPUE seemed to differ among age classes – the finer meshed trap caught more young‐of‐the‐year fish than the coarse‐meshed one, whereas the opposite was true for the older and larger individuals. The results agree with those of an earlier more restricted study conducted in the same locality: Together, these results provide strong evidence for the positive impact of baiting on nine‐spined stickleback CPUE.     

Winter survival of age-0 smallmouth bass, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Micropterus dolomieu</Emphasis>, in north eastern lakes

We examined the winter survival of age-0 smallmouth bass,Micropterus dolomieu, in lakes at their northern limit of distribution in New Brunswick, Canada. Pre- and post-winter collections over a 3 year period suggested the smallest individuals, <50 mm total length, died during winter under ice. Experiments with wild, age-0 smallmouth bass held in lakes demonstrated a size-dependent survival where smaller individuals had greater survival with an increasing temperature of exposure, but the largest individuals had reduced survival at warmer temperatures. Survivors lost 22–54% of pre-winter energy reserves measured as ash-free dry weight, which was similar to wild individuals captured in spring. Body size at the onset of winter affects survival, but it also appears that temperature interacting with a suite of environmental and biological factors affect changes in energy use and therefore survival of age-0 smallmouth bass under ice in winter.     

Occurrence of age‐0 year dwarf pikeperch Sander lucioperca in late summer – an overlooked phenomenon in reservoirs

Late summer sampling of pelagic age‐0 year fish communities in five Czech reservoirs and one Dutch reservoir revealed extremely small age‐0 year pikeperch Sander lucioperca (mean 24 mm standard length, L_S, minimum 13 mm L_S) alongside more normal‐sized S. lucioperca that are found at the end of the first growing season (mean 50 mm L_S), resulting in two clearly size‐separated cohorts. Reference to such small age‐0 year S. lucioperca in lakes or reservoirs at this time of year and in such large numbers are almost absent the scientific literature, and the presence of these small S. lucioperca is contradictory to the common understanding of the reproductive biology of this species. This overlooked phenomenon may have a major effect on the population dynamics of this valuable species because of size‐dependent winter mortality.