Global inequities between polluters and the polluted: climate change impacts on coral reefs

For many ecosystem services, it remains uncertain whether the impacts of climate change will be mostly negative or positive and how these changes will be geographically distributed. These unknowns hamper the identification of regional winners and losers, which can influence debate over climate policy. Here, we use coral reefs to explore the spatial variability of climate stress by modelling the ecological impacts of rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification, two important coral stressors associated with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We then combine these results with national per capita emissions to quantify inequities arising from the distribution of cause (CO₂ emissions) and effect (stress upon reefs) among coral reef countries. We find pollution and coral stress are spatially decoupled, creating substantial inequity of impacts as a function of emissions. We then consider the implications of such inequity for international climate policy. Targets for GHG reductions are likely to be tied to a country's emissions. Yet within a given level of GHG emissions, our analysis reveals that some countries experience relatively high levels of impact and will likely experience greater financial cost in terms of lost ecosystem productivity and more extensive adaptation measures. We suggest countries so disadvantaged be given access to international adaptation funds proportionate with impacts to their ecosystem. We raise the idea that funds could be more equitably allocated by formally including a metric of equity within a vulnerability framework.     

Cell wall organic matrix composition and biomineralization across reef-building coralline algae under global change

Crustose coralline algae (CCA) are one of the most important benthic substrate consolidators on coral reefs through their ability to deposit calcium carbonate on an organic matrix in their cell walls. Discrete polysaccharides have been recognized for their role in biomineralization, yet little is known about the carbohydrate composition of organic matrices across CCA taxa and whether they have the capacity to modulate their organic matrix constituents amidst environmental change, particularly the threats of ocean acidification (OA) and warming. We simulated elevated pCO₂ and temperature (IPCC RCP 8.5) and subjected four mid-shelf Great Barrier Reef species of CCA to 2 months of experimentation. To assess the variability in surficial monosaccharide composition and biomineralization across species and treatments, we determined the monosaccharide composition of the polysaccharides present in the cell walls of surficial algal tissue and quantified calcification. Our results revealed dissimilarity among species' monosaccharide constituents, which suggests that organic matrices are composed of different polysaccharides across CCA taxa. We also observed that species differentially modulate composition in response to ocean acidification and warming. Our findings suggest that both variability in composition and ability to modulate monosaccharide abundance may play a crucial role in surficial biomineralization dynamics under the stress of OA and global warming.     

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef‐building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long‐term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low‐ and high‐climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM‐resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985–2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30–50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2–1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.     

Quantifying the response of structural complexity and community composition to environmental change in marine communities

Habitat structural complexity is a key factor shaping marine communities. However, accurate methods for quantifying structural complexity underwater are currently lacking. Loss of structural complexity is linked to ecosystem declines in biodiversity and resilience. We developed new methods using underwater stereo‐imagery spanning 4 years (2010–2013) to reconstruct 3D models of coral reef areas and quantified both structural complexity at two spatial resolutions (2.5 and 25 cm) and benthic community composition to characterize changes after an unprecedented thermal anomaly on the west coast of Australia in 2011. Structural complexity increased at both resolutions in quadrats (4 m²) that bleached, but not those that did not bleach. Changes in complexity were driven by species‐specific responses to warming, highlighting the importance of identifying small‐scale dynamics to disentangle ecological responses to disturbance. We demonstrate an effective, repeatable method for quantifying the relationship among community composition, structural complexity and ocean warming, improving predictions of the response of marine ecosystems to environmental change.     

Research challenges to improve the management and conservation of subtropical reefs to tackle climate change threats

This paper reports on a workshop conducted in Australia in 2010, entitled ‘Management, Conservation, and Scientific Challenges on Subtropical Reefs under Climate Change’. The workshop brought together 26 experts actively involved in the science and management of subtropical reefs. Its primary aim was to identify the areas of research that need to be most urgently addressed to improve the decision‐making framework for managers of subtropical reefs. The main findings of the workshop were a sustainable subtropical reefs declaration that highlights seven research priorities for subtropical reefs. These are to (i) conduct research and management activities across local government, state and bioregion borders; (ii) understand natural variability of environmental conditions; (iii) quantify socio‐economic factors and ecosystem services; (iv) benchmark cross‐realm connectivity; (v) know marine population connectivity; (vi) habitat mapping and ecological research; and (v) determine refugia. These findings are hoped to form a basis for focussing research efforts, leveraging funds and assisting managers with allocation of resources.     

Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change

Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding the future impacts on ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals' natural adaptive capacity to such change. Here we estimate how the ability of symbionts to evolve tolerance to heat stress, or for coral hosts to shuffle to favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling, both individually and when combined, favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production (NCCP) under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19%–35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive NCCP by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP. Without symbiont adaptive capacity, the number of coral reefs with positive NCCP drops to 9%–13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive NCPP of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5).     

Elucidating the sponge stress response; lipids and fatty acids can facilitate survival under future climate scenarios

Ocean warming (OW) and ocean acidification (OA) are threatening coral reef ecosystems, with a bleak future forecast for reef‐building corals, which are already experiencing global declines in abundance. In contrast, many coral reef sponge species are able to tolerate climate change conditions projected for 2100. To increase our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning this tolerance, we explored the lipid and fatty acid (FA) composition of four sponge species with differing sensitivities to climate change, experimentally exposed to OW and OA levels predicted for 2100, under two CO₂ Representative Concentration Pathways. Sponges with greater concentrations of storage lipid, phospholipids, sterols and elevated concentrations of n‐3 and n‐6 long‐chain polyunsaturated FA (LC PUFA), were more resistant to OW. Such biochemical constituents likely contribute to the ability of these sponges to maintain membrane function and cell homeostasis in the face of environmental change. Our results suggest that n‐3 and n‐6 LC PUFA are important components of the sponge stress response potentially via chain elongation and the eicosanoid stress‐signalling pathways. The capacity for sponges to compositionally alter their membrane lipids in response to stress was also explored using a number of specific homeoviscous adaptation (HVA) indicators. This revealed a potential mechanism via which additional CO₂ could facilitate the resistance of phototrophic sponges to thermal stress through an increased synthesis of membrane‐stabilizing sterols. Finally, OW induced an increase in FA unsaturation in phototrophic sponges but a decrease in heterotrophic species, providing support for a difference in the thermal response pathway between the sponge host and the associated photosymbionts. Here we have shown that sponge lipids and FA are likely to be an important component of the sponge stress response and may play a role in facilitating sponge survival under future climate conditions.     

Global diversity patterns of larger benthic foraminifera under future climate change

Global warming threatens the viability of tropical coral reefs and associated marine calcifiers, including symbiont-bearing larger benthic foraminifera (LBF). The impacts of current climate change on LBF are debated because they were particularly diverse and abundant during past warm periods. Studies on the responses of selected LBF species to changing environmental conditions reveal varying results. Based on a comprehensive review of the scientific literature on LBF species occurrences, we applied species distribution modeling using Maxent to estimate present-day and future species richness patterns on a global scale for the time periods 2040–2050 and 2090–2100. For our future projections, we focus on Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which projects mean surface temperature changes of +2.2°C by the year 2100. Our results suggest that species richness in the Central Indo-Pacific is two to three times higher than in the Bahamian ecoregion, which we have identified as the present-day center of LBF diversity in the Atlantic. Our future predictions project a dramatic temperature-driven decline in low-latitude species richness and an increasing widening bimodal latitudinal pattern of species diversity. While the central Indo-Pacific, now the stronghold of LBF diversity, is expected to be most pushed outside of the currently realized niches of most species, refugia may be largely preserved in the Atlantic. LBF species will face large-scale non-analogous climatic conditions compared to currently realized climate space in the near future, as reflected in the extensive areas of extrapolation, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Our study supports hypotheses that species richness and biogeographic patterns of LBF will fundamentally change under future climate conditions, possibly initiating a faunal turnover by the late 21st century.     

A 120‐year record of resilience to environmental change in brachiopods

The inability of organisms to cope in changing environments poses a major threat to their survival. Rising carbon dioxide concentrations, recently exceeding 400 μatm, are rapidly warming and acidifying our oceans. Current understanding of organism responses to this environmental phenomenon is based mainly on relatively short‐ to medium‐term laboratory and field experiments, which cannot evaluate the potential for long‐term acclimation and adaptation, the processes identified as most important to confer resistance. Here, we present data from a novel approach that assesses responses over a centennial timescale showing remarkable resilience to change in a species predicted to be vulnerable. Utilising museum collections allows the assessment of how organisms have coped with past environmental change. It also provides a historical reference for future climate change responses. We evaluated a unique specimen collection of a single species of brachiopod (Calloria inconspicua) collected every decade from 1900 to 2014 from one sampling site. The majority of brachiopod shell characteristics remained unchanged over the past century. One response, however, appears to reinforce their shell by constructing narrower punctae (shell perforations) and laying down more shell. This study indicates one of the most calcium‐carbonate‐dependent species globally to be highly resilient to environmental change over the last 120 years and provides a new insight for how similar species might react and possibly adapt to future change.     

Paradise lost: End‐of‐century warming and acidification under business‐as‐usual emissions have severe consequences for symbiotic corals

Despite recent efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, current global emission trajectories are still following the business‐as‐usual representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission pathway. The resulting ocean warming and acidification have transformative impacts on coral reef ecosystems, detrimentally affecting coral physiology and health, and these impacts are predicted to worsen in the near future. In this study, we kept fragments of the symbiotic corals Acropora intermedia (thermally sensitive) and Porites lobata (thermally tolerant) for 7 weeks under an orthogonal design of predicted end‐of‐century RCP8.5 conditions for temperature and pCO₂ (3.5°C and 570 ppm above present‐day, respectively) to unravel how temperature and acidification, individually or interactively, influence metabolic and physiological performance. Our results pinpoint thermal stress as the dominant driver of deteriorating health in both species because of its propensity to destabilize coral–dinoflagellate symbiosis (bleaching). Acidification had no influence on metabolism but had a significant negative effect on skeleton growth, particularly when photosynthesis was absent such as in bleached corals or under dark conditions. Total loss of photosynthesis after bleaching caused an exhaustion of protein and lipid stores and collapse of calcification that ultimately led to A. intermedia mortality. Despite complete loss of symbionts from its tissue, P. lobata maintained small amounts of photosynthesis and experienced a weaker decline in lipid and protein reserves that presumably contributed to higher survival of this species. Our results indicate that ocean warming and acidification under business‐as‐usual CO₂ emission scenarios will likely extirpate thermally sensitive coral species before the end of the century, while slowing the recovery of more thermally tolerant species from increasingly severe mass coral bleaching and mortality. This could ultimately lead to the gradual disappearance of tropical coral reefs globally, and a shift on surviving reefs to only the most resilient coral species.     

Biomineralization plasticity and environmental heterogeneity predict geographical resilience patterns of foundation species to future change

Although geographical patterns of species' sensitivity to environmental changes are defined by interacting multiple stressors, little is known about compensatory processes shaping regional differences in organismal vulnerability. Here, we examine large‐scale spatial variations in biomineralization under heterogeneous environmental gradients of temperature, salinity and food availability across a 30° latitudinal range (3,334 km), to test whether plasticity in calcareous shell production and composition, from juveniles to large adults, mediates geographical patterns of resilience to climate change in critical foundation species, the mussels Mytilus edulis and M. trossulus. We find shell calcification decreased towards high latitude, with mussels producing thinner shells with a higher organic content in polar than temperate regions. Salinity was the best predictor of within‐region differences in mussel shell deposition, mineral and organic composition. In polar, subpolar, and Baltic low‐salinity environments, mussels produced thin shells with a thicker external organic layer (periostracum), and an increased proportion of calcite (prismatic layer, as opposed to aragonite) and organic matrix, providing potentially higher resistance against dissolution in more corrosive waters. Conversely, in temperate, higher salinity regimes, thicker, more calcified shells with a higher aragonite (nacreous layer) proportion were deposited, which suggests enhanced protection under increased predation pressure. Interacting effects of salinity and food availability on mussel shell composition predict the deposition of a thicker periostracum and organic‐enriched prismatic layer under forecasted future environmental conditions, suggesting a capacity for increased protection of high‐latitude populations from ocean acidification. These findings support biomineralization plasticity as a potentially advantageous compensatory mechanism conferring Mytilus species a protective capacity for quantitative and qualitative trade‐offs in shell deposition as a response to regional alterations of abiotic and biotic conditions in future environments. Our work illustrates that compensatory mechanisms, driving plastic responses to the spatial structure of multiple stressors, can define geographical patterns of unanticipated species resilience to global environmental change.     

Solutions for ecosystem‐level protection of ocean systems under climate change

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta‐analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co‐mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem‐level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long‐term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate‐ready and ecosystem‐level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.     

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND WARMING ON THE MORTALITY AND DISSOLUTION OF CORALLINE ALGAE1

Coralline algae are among the most sensitive calcifying organisms to ocean acidification as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO₂). Little is known, however, about the combined impacts of increased pCO₂, ocean acidification, and sea surface temperature on tissue mortality and skeletal dissolution of coralline algae. To address this issue, we conducted factorial manipulative experiments of elevated CO₂ and temperature and examined the consequences on tissue survival and skeletal dissolution of the crustose coralline alga (CCA) Porolithon (=Hydrolithon) onkodes (Heydr.) Foslie (Corallinaceae, Rhodophyta) on the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. We observed that warming amplified the negative effects of high pCO₂ on the health of the algae: rates of advanced partial mortality of CCA increased from <1% to 9% under high CO₂ (from 400 to 1,100 ppm) and exacerbated to 15% under warming conditions (from 26°C to 29°C). Furthermore, the effect of pCO₂ on skeletal dissolution strongly depended on temperature. Dissolution of P. onkodes only occurred in the high‐pCO₂ treatment and was greater in the warm treatment. Enhanced skeletal dissolution was also associated with a significant increase in the abundance of endolithic algae. Our results demonstrate that P. onkodes is particularly sensitive to ocean acidification under warm conditions, suggesting that previous experiments focused on ocean acidification alone have underestimated the impact of future conditions on coralline algae. Given the central role that coralline algae play within coral reefs, these conclusions have serious ramifications for the integrity of coral‐reef ecosystems.     

Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change

Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species‐specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the ‘business‐as‐usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large‐bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks of exploited marine species using publicly and readily available information.     

Catastrophic mortality on inshore coral reefs of the Florida Keys due to severe low‐temperature stress

Coral reefs of the Florida Keys typically experience seasonal temperatures of 20–31 °C. Deviation outside this range causes physiological impairment of reef‐building corals, potentially leading to coral colony death. In January and February 2010, two closely spaced cold fronts, possibly driven by an unusually extreme Arctic Oscillation, caused sudden and severe seawater temperature declines in the Florida Keys. Inshore coral reefs [e.g., Admiral Reef (ADM)] experienced lower sustained temperatures (i.e., < 12 °C) than those further offshore [e.g., Little Grecian Reef (LG), minimum temperature = 17.2 °C]. During February and March 2010, we surveyed ADM and observed a mass die‐off of reef‐building corals, whereas 12 km away LG did not exhibit coral mortality. We subsequently measured the physiological effects of low‐temperature stress on three common reef‐building corals (i.e., Montastraea faveolata, Porites astreoides, and Siderastrea siderea) over a range of temperatures that replicated the inshore cold‐water anomaly (i.e., from 20 to 16 to 12 °C and back to 20 °C). Throughout the temperature modulations, coral respiration as well as endosymbiont gross photosynthesis and maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II were measured. In addition, Symbiodinium genotypic identity, cell densities, and chlorophyll a content were determined at the beginning and conclusion of the experiment. All corals were significantly affected at 12 °C, but species‐specific physiological responses were found indicating different coral and/or Symbiodinium cold tolerances. Montastraea faveolata and P. astreoides appeared to be most negatively impacted because, upon return to 20 °C, significant reductions in gross photosynthesis and dark respiration persisted. Siderastrea siderea, however, readily recovered to pre‐treatment rates of dark respiration and gross photosynthesis. Visual surveys of inshore reefs corroborated these results, with S. siderea being minimally affected by the cold‐water anomaly, whereas M. faveolata and P. astreoides exhibited nearly 100% mortality. This study highlights the importance of understanding the physiological attributes of genotypically distinct coral‐Symbiodinium symbioses that contribute to tolerance, recovery, and consequences to an environmental perturbation. These data also document effects of a rarely studied environmental stressor, possibly initiated by remote global climate events, on coral‐Symbiodinium symbioses and coral reef communities.     

Ecosystem‐based management of coral reefs under climate change

Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land‐use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO₂ emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem‐based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change‐ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human‐assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change‐ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long‐term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.     

Sensitivity of coral calcification to ocean acidification: a meta‐analysis

To date, meta‐analyses of effects of acidification have focused on the overall strength of evidence for statistically significant responses; however, to anticipate likely consequences of ocean acidification, quantitative estimates of the magnitude of likely responses are also needed. Herein, we use random effects meta‐analysis to produce a systematically integrated measure of the distribution of magnitudes of the response of coral calcification to decreasing Ω_Arag. We also tested whether methodological and biological factors that have been hypothesized to drive variation in response magnitude explain a significant proportion of the among‐study variation. We found that the overall mean response of coral calcification is ~15% per unit decrease in Ω_Arag over the range 2 < Ω_Arag < 4. Among‐study variation is large (standard deviation of 8% per unit decrease in Ω_Arag). Neither differences in carbonate chemistry manipulation method, study duration, irradiance level, nor study species growth rate explained a significant proportion of the among‐study variation. However, studies employing buoyant weighting found significantly smaller decreases in calcification per unit Ω_Arag (~10%), compared with studies using the alkalinity anomaly technique (~25%). These differences may be due to the greater tendency for the former to integrate over light and dark calcification. If the existing body of experimental work is indeed representative of likely responses of corals in nature, our results imply that, under business as usual conditions, declines in coral calcification by end‐of‐century will be ~22%, on average, or ~15% if only studies integrating light and dark calcification are considered. These values are near the low end of published projections, but support the emerging view that variability due to local environmental conditions and species composition is likely to be substantial.     

Quantifying variety‐specific heat resistance and the potential for adaptation to climate change

The impact of climate change on crop yields has become widely measured; however, the linkages for winter wheat are less studied due to dramatic weather changes during the long growing season that are difficult to model. Recent research suggests significant reductions under warming. A potential adaptation strategy involves the development of heat resistant varieties by breeders, combined with alternative variety selection by producers. However, the impact of heat on specific wheat varieties remains relatively unstudied due to limited data and the complex genetic basis of heat tolerance. Here, we provide a novel econometric approach that combines field‐trial data with a genetic cluster mapping to group wheat varieties and estimate a separate extreme heat impact (temperatures over 34 °C) across 24 clusters spanning 197 varieties. We find a wide range of heterogeneous heat resistance and a trade‐off between average yield and resistance. Results suggest that recently released varieties are less heat resistant than older varieties, a pattern that also holds for on‐farm varieties. Currently released – but not yet adopted – varieties do not offer improved resistance relative to varieties currently grown on farm. Our findings suggest that warming impacts could be significantly reduced through advances in wheat breeding and/or adoption decisions by producers. However, current adaptation‐through‐adoption potential is limited under a 1 °C warming scenario as increased heat resistance cannot be achieved without a reduction in average yields.     

Benthic N2 fixation in coral reefs and the potential effects of human‐induced environmental change

Tropical coral reefs are among the most productive and diverse ecosystems, despite being surrounded by ocean waters where nutrients are in short supply. Benthic dinitrogen (N₂) fixation is a significant internal source of “new” nitrogen (N) in reef ecosystems, but related information appears to be sparse. Here, we review the current state (and gaps) of knowledge on N₂ fixation associated with coral reef organisms and their ecosystems. By summarizing the existing literature, we show that benthic N₂ fixation is an omnipresent process in tropical reef environments. Highest N₂ fixation rates are detected in reef‐associated cyanobacterial mats and sea grass meadows, clearly showing the significance of these functional groups, if present, to the input of new N in reef ecosystems. Nonetheless, key benthic organisms such as hard corals also importantly contribute to benthic N₂ fixation in the reef. Given the usually high coral coverage of healthy reef systems, these results indicate that benthic symbiotic associations may be more important than previously thought. In fact, mutualisms between carbon (C) and N₂ fixers have likely evolved that may enable reef communities to mitigate N limitation. We then explore the potential effects of the increasing human interferences on the process of benthic reef N₂ fixation via changes in diazotrophic populations, enzymatic activities, or availability of benthic substrates favorable to these microorganisms. Current knowledge indicates positive effects of ocean acidification, warming, and deoxygenation and negative effects of increased ultraviolet radiation on the amount of N fixed in coral reefs. Eutrophication may either boost or suppress N₂ fixation, depending on the nutrient becoming limiting. As N₂ fixation appears to play a fundamental role in nutrient‐limited reef ecosystems, these assumptions need to be expanded and confirmed by future research efforts addressing the knowledge gaps identified in this review.