Life stage,not climate change,explains observed tree range shifts

Ongoing climate change is expected to shift tree species distribution and therefore affect forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. To assess and project tree distributional shifts, researchers may compare the distribution of juvenile and adult trees under the assumption that differences between tree life stages reflect distributional shifts triggered by climate change. However, the distribution of tree life stages could differ within the lifespan of trees, therefore, we hypothesize that currently observed distributional differences could represent shifts over ontogeny as opposed to climatically driven changes. Here, we test this hypothesis with data from 1435 plots resurveyed after more than three decades across the Western Carpathians. We compared seedling, sapling and adult distribution of 12 tree species along elevation, temperature and precipitation gradients. We analyzed (i) temporal shifts between the surveys and (ii) distributional differences between tree life stages within both surveys. Despite climate warming, tree species distribution of any life stage did not shift directionally upward along elevation between the surveys. Temporal elevational shifts were species specific and an order of magnitude lower than differences among tree life stages within the surveys. Our results show that the observed range shifts among tree life stages are more consistent with ontogenetic differences in the species' environmental requirements than with responses to recent climate change. The distribution of seedlings substantially differed from saplings and adults, while the distribution of saplings did not differ from adults, indicating a critical transition between seedling and sapling tree life stages. Future research has to take ontogenetic differences among life stages into account as we found that distributional differences recently observed worldwide may not reflect climate change but rather the different environmental requirements of tree life stages.     

Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations, but current evidence of latitudinal range shifts for suites of species is largely indirect. In response to global warming, offspring of trees are predicted to have ranges extend beyond adults at leading edges and the opposite relationship at trailing edges. Large‐scale forest inventory data provide an opportunity to compare present latitudes of seedlings and adult trees at their range limits. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data, we directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States. We further compared these latitudes with 20th century temperature and precipitation change and functional traits, including seed size and seed spread rate. Results suggest that 58.7% of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction, rather than expansion, at both northern and southern boundaries. Fewer species show a pattern consistent with a northward shift (20.7%) and fewer still with a southward shift (16.3%). Only 4.3% are consistent with expansion at both range limits. When compared with the 20th century climate changes that have occurred at the range boundaries themselves, there is no consistent evidence that population spread is greatest in areas where climate has changed most; nor are patterns related to seed size or dispersal characteristics. The fact that the majority of seedling extreme latitudes are less than those for adult trees may emphasize the lack of evidence for climate‐mediated migration, and should increase concerns for the risks posed by climate change.     

How disturbance,competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change

Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species' ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition‐induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change, disturbance and competitive interactions to produce range shifts are poorly understood. We used a physiologically based mechanistic landscape model to study these interactions in the northeastern United States. We designed a series of disturbance scenarios to represent varied disturbance regimes in terms of both disturbance extent and intensity. We simulated forest succession by incorporating climate change under a high‐emissions future, disturbances, seed dispersal, and competition using the landscape model parameterized with forest inventory data. Tree species range boundary shifts in the next century were quantified as the change in the location of the 5th (the trailing edge) and 95th (the leading edge) percentiles of the spatial distribution of simulated species. Simulated tree species range boundary shifts in New England over the next century were far below (usually <20 km) that required to track the velocity of temperature change (usually more than 110 km over 100 years) under a high‐emissions scenario. Simulated species` ranges shifted northward at both the leading edge (northern boundary) and trailing edge (southern boundary). Disturbances may expedite species' recruitment into new sites, but they had little effect on the velocity of simulated range boundary shifts. Range shifts at the trailing edge tended to be associated with photosynthetic capacity, competitive ability for light and seed dispersal ability, whereas shifts at the leading edge were associated only with photosynthetic capacity and competition for light. This study underscores the importance of understanding the role of interspecific competition and disturbance when studying tree range shifts.     

Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean‐warming hotspot

Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean‐warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small‐ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances.     

Global patterns in the shape of species geographical ranges reveal range determinants

Aim Do species range shapes follow general patterns? If so, what mechanisms underlie those patterns? We show for 11,582 species from a variety of taxa across the world that most species have similar latitudinal and longitudinal ranges. We then seek to disentangle the roles of climate, extrinsic dispersal limitation (e.g. barriers) and intrinsic dispersal limitation (reflecting a species’ ability to disperse) as constraints of species range shape. We also assess the relationship between range size and shape. Location Global. Methods Range shape patterns were measured as the slope of the regression of latitudinal species ranges against longitudinal ranges for each taxon and continent, and as the coefficient of determination measuring the degree of scattering of species ranges from the 1:1 line (i.e. latitudinal range = longitudinal range). Two major competing hypotheses explaining species distributions (i.e. dispersal or climatic determinism) were explored. To this end, we compared the observed slopes and coefficients of determination with those predicted by a climatic null model that estimates the potential range shapes in the absence of dispersal limitation. The predictions compared were that species distribution shapes are determined purely by (1) intrinsic dispersal limitation, (2) extrinsic dispersal limitations such as topographic barriers, and (3) climate. Results  Using this methodology, we show for a wide variety of taxa across the globe that species generally have very similar latitudinal and longitudinal ranges. However, neither neutral models assuming random but spatially constrained dispersal, nor models assuming climatic control of species distributions describe range shapes adequately. The empirical relationship between the latitudinal and longitudinal ranges of species falls between the predictions of these competing models. Main conclusions We propose that this pattern arises from the combined effect of macroclimate and intrinsic dispersal limitation, the latter being the major determinant among restricted‐range species. Hence, accurately projecting the impact of climate change onto species ranges will require a solid understanding of how climate and dispersal jointly control species ranges.     

Limited filling of the potential range in European tree species

The relative roles of environment and history in controlling large‐scale species distributions are important not only theoretically, but also for forecasting range responses to climatic change. Here, we use atlas data to examine the extent to which 55 tree species fill their climatically determined potential ranges in Europe. Quantifying range filling (R/P) as realized/potential range size ratios using bioclimatic envelope modelling we find mean R/P = 38.3% (±30.3% SD). Many European tree species naturalize extensively outside their native ranges, providing support for interpreting the many low R/Ps as primarily reflecting dispersal limitation. R/P increases strongly with latitudinal range centroid and secondarily with hardiness and decreases weakly with longitudinal range centroid. Hence, European tree species ranges appear strongly controlled by geographical dispersal constraints on post‐glacial expansion as well as climate. Consequently, we expect European tree species to show only limited tracking of near‐future climate changes.     

Tree demography suggests multiple directions and drivers for species range shifts in mountains of Northeastern United States

Climate change is expected to lead to upslope shifts in tree species distributions, but the evidence is mixed partly due to land‐use effects and individualistic species responses to climate. We examined how individual tree species demography varies along elevational climatic gradients across four states in the northeastern United States to determine whether species elevational distributions and their potential upslope (or downslope) shifts were controlled by climate, land‐use legacies (past logging), or soils. We characterized tree demography, microclimate, land‐use legacies, and soils at 83 sites stratified by elevation (~500 to ~1200 m above sea level) across 12 mountains containing the transition from northern hardwood to spruce‐fir forests. We modeled elevational distributions of tree species saplings and adults using logistic regression to test whether sapling distributions suggest ongoing species range expansion upslope (or contraction downslope) relative to adults, and we used linear mixed models to determine the extent to which climate, land use, and soil variables explain these distributions. Tree demography varied with elevation by species, suggesting a potential upslope shift only for American beech, downslope shifts for red spruce (more so in cool regions) and sugar maple, and no change with elevation for balsam fir. While soils had relatively minor effects, climate was the dominant predictor for most species and more so for saplings than adults of red spruce, sugar maple, yellow birch, cordate birch, and striped maple. On the other hand, logging legacies were positively associated with American beech, sugar maple, and yellow birch, and negatively with red spruce and balsam fir – generally more so for adults than saplings. All species exhibited individualistic rather than synchronous demographic responses to climate and land use, and the return of red spruce to lower elevations where past logging originally benefited northern hardwood species indicates that land use may mask species range shifts caused by changing climate.     

Heterogeneity in soil water and light environments and dispersal limitation: what facilitates tree species coexistence in a temperate forest?

In the present study, we analysed the habitat association of tree species in an old‐growth temperate forest across all life stages to test theories on the coexistence of tree species in forest communities. An inventory for trees was implemented at a 6‐ha plot in Ogawa Forest Reserve for adults, juveniles, saplings and seedlings. Volumetric soil water content (SMC) and light levels were measured in 10‐m grids. Relationships between the actual number of stems and environmental variables were determined for 35 major tree species, and the spatial correlations within and among species were analysed. The light level had no statistically significant effect on distribution of saplings and seedlings of any species. In contrast, most species had specific optimal values along the SMC gradient. The optimal values were almost identical in earlier life stages, but were more variable in later life stages among species. However, no effective niche partitioning among the species was apparent even at the adult stage. Furthermore, results of spatial analyses suggest that dispersal limitation was not sufficient to mitigate competition between species. This might result from well‐scattered seed distribution via wind and bird dispersal, as well as conspecific density‐dependent mortality of seeds and seedlings. Thus, both niche partitioning and dispersal limitation appeared less important for facilitating coexistence of species within this forest than expected in tropical forests. The tree species assembly in this temperate forest might be controlled through a neutral process at the spatial scale tested in this study.     

Dispersal response to climate change: scaling down to intraspecific variation

Range shift, a widespread response to climate change, will depend on species abilities to withstand warmer climates. However, these abilities may vary within species and such intraspecific variation can strongly impact species responses to climate change. Facing warmer climates, individuals should disperse according to their thermal optimum with consequences for species range shifts. Here, we studied individual dispersal of a reptile in response to climate warming and preferred temperature using a semi‐natural warming experiment. Individuals with low preferred temperatures dispersed more from warmer semi‐natural habitats, whereas individuals with higher preferred temperatures dispersed more from cooler habitats. These dispersal decisions partly matched phenotype‐dependent survival rates in the different thermal habitats, suggesting adaptive dispersal decisions. This process should result into a spatial segregation of thermal phenotypes along species moving ranges which should facilitate local adaptation to warming climates. We therefore call for range shift models including intraspecific variation in thermal phenotype and dispersal decision.     

A New Tool for Exploring Climate Change Induced Range Shifts of Conifer Species in China

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS''s for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.     

Species traits explain recent range shifts of Finnish butterflies

This study provides a novel systematic comparative analysis of the species characteristics affecting the range margin shifts in butterflies towards higher latitudes, while taking phylogenetic relatedness among species into account. We related observed changes in the northern range margins of 48 butterfly species in Finland between two time periods (1992–1996 and 2000–2004) to 11 species traits. Species with positive records in at least ten 10 km × 10 km grid squares (in the Finnish National Butterfly Recording Scheme, NAFI) in both periods were included in the study. When corrected for range size change, the 48 butterfly species had shifted their range margins northwards on average by 59.9 km between the study periods, with maximum shifts of over 300 km for three species. This rate of range shifts exceeds all previously reported records worldwide. Our findings may be explained by two factors: the study region is situated in higher latitudes than in most previous studies and it focuses on the period of most prominent warming during the last 10–15 years. Several species traits exhibited a significant univariate relationship with the range margin shift according to generalized estimation equations (GEE) taking into account the phylogenetic relatedness among species. Nonthreatened butterflies had on average expanded their ranges strongly northwards (84.5 km), whereas the distributions of threatened species were stationary (−2.1 km). Hierarchical partitioning (HP) analysis indicated that mobile butterflies living in forest edges and using woody plants as their larval hosts exhibited largest range shifts towards the north. Thus, habitat availability and dispersal capacity of butterfly species are likely to determine whether they will be successful in shifting their ranges in response to the warming climate.     

The geographical range of British birds expands during 15 years of warming

Capsule Abundance monitoring data suggest that the short-term response of breeding birds to recent warming in Great Britain has been range expansion, caused by poleward shifts of leading range margins and no significant shifts of trailing range margins.

Aims To quantify latitudinal and elevational shifts of breeding bird populations in Great Britain and test for differential shifts in range margins during a period of warming (1994–2009).

Methods We modelled the population density of 80 species as a smooth function of latitude, longitude, elevation and year. Reference points on the distribution curve were used to describe latitudinal and elevational shifts.

Results Across species, poleward shifts in the leading range margin were greater than in the range-centre. The trailing range margin was largely static, providing evidence for significant range expansion. The magnitude of latitudinal range shift lagged behind the equivalent shift in temperature, suggesting that species may be accumulating a climatic debt. There was no evidence for consistent elevational shifts.

Conclusion Contrary to the generally expected long-term consequences of climate change of range contraction, we show that the short-term response to recent warming has been range expansion. This suggests the mechanisms of short-term and long-term consequences of climate change may differ.     

An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century

Forest ecosystems across western North America will likely see shifts in both tree species dominance and composition over the rest of this century in response to climate change. Our objective in this study was to identify which ecological regions might expect the greatest changes to occur. We used the process‐based growth model 3‐PG, to provide estimates of tree species responses to changes in environmental conditions and to evaluate the extent that species are resilient to shifts in climate over the rest of this century. We assessed the vulnerability of 20 tree species in western North America using the Canadian global circulation model under three different emission scenarios. We provided detailed projections of species shifts by including soil maps that account for the spatial variation in soil water availability and soil fertility as well as by utilizing annual climate projections of monthly changes in air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit and frost at a spatial resolution of one km. Projected suitable areas for tree species were compared to their current ranges based on observations at >40 000 field survey plots. Tree species were classified as vulnerable if environmental conditions projected in the future appear outside that of their current distribution ≥70% of the time. We added a migration constraint that limits species dispersal to <200 m yr^?1 to provide more realistic projections on species distributions. Based on these combinations of constraints, we predicted the greatest changes in the distribution of dominant tree species to occur within the Northwest Forested Mountains and the highest number of tree species stressed will likely be in the North American Deserts. Projected climatic changes appear especially unfavorable for species in the subalpine zone, where major shifts in composition may lead to the emergence of new forest types.     

Equipped to cope with climate change: traits associated with range filling across European taxa

In order to understand the ecological effects of climate change it is essential to forecast suitable areas for species in the future. However, species’ ability to reach potentially suitable areas is also critical for species survival. These ‘range‐shift’ abilities can be studied using life‐history traits related to four range‐shift stages: emigration, movement, establishment, and proliferation. Here, we use the extent to which species’ ranges fill the climatically suitable area available (‘range filling’) as a proxy for the ability of European mammals and birds to shift their ranges under climate change. We detect which traits associate most closely with range filling. Drawing comparisons with a recent analysis for plants, we ask whether the latitudinal position of species’ ranges supports the assertion that post‐glacial range‐shift limitations cause disequilibrium between ranges and climate. We also disentangle which of the three taxonomic groups has greatest range filling. For mammals, generalists and early‐reproducing species have the greatest range filling. For birds, generalist species with high annual fecundity, which live longer than expected based on body size, have the greatest range filling. Although we consider traits related to the four range‐shift stages, only traits related to establishment and proliferation ability significantly influence range filling of mammals and birds. Species with the greatest range filling are those whose range centroid falls in the latitudinal centre of Europe, suggesting that post‐glacial range expansion is a leading cause of disequilibrium with climate, although other explanations are also possible. Range filling of plants is lower than that of mammals or birds, suggesting that plants are more range‐limited by non‐climatic factors. Therefore, plants might be face greater non‐climatic restraints on range shifts than mammals or birds.     

Individualistic species limitations of climate‐induced range expansions generated by meso‐scale dispersal barriers

Aim Evidence indicates that species are responding to climate change through distributional range shifts that track suitable climatic conditions. We aim to elucidate the role of meso‐scale dispersal barriers in climate‐tracking responses. Location South coast of England (the English Channel). Methods Historical distributional data of four intertidal invertebrate species were logistically regressed against sea surface temperature (SST) to determine a climate envelope. This envelope was used to estimate the expected climate‐tracking response since 1990 along the coast, which was compared with observed range expansions. A hydrodynamic modelling approach was used to identify dispersal barriers and explore disparities between expected and observed climate tracking. Results Range shifts detected by field survey over the past 20 years were less than those predicted by the changes that have occurred in SST. Hydrodynamic model simulations indicated that physical barriers produced by complex tidal currents have variably restricted dispersal of pelagic larvae amongst the four species. Main conclusions We provide the first evidence that meso‐scale hydrodynamic barriers have limited climate‐induced range shifts and demonstrate that life history traits affect the ability of species to overcome such barriers. This suggests that current forecasts may be flawed, both by overestimating range shifts and by underestimating climatic tolerances of species. This has implications for our understanding of climate change impacts on global biodiversity.     

Life-history traits are correlated with geographical distribution patterns of western European forest herb species

Aim To investigate whether six plant life‐history traits that have been related to colonization ability at local scales are also related to the geographical range characteristics of 273 forest plant species. Location Continental western Europe, five countries in particular: France, Luxemburg, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany. The region is situated between 42° and 55°N and 5°W and 15°E and has a summed total area of 971,404 km². Methods Distribution data were compiled from five national data bases and converted to a 10′ grid. Life‐history traits were taken from existing compilations of autecological information of European species. The spatial arrangement of occupied grid cells was investigated using Ripley's K. Cross‐species correlations and phylogenetically independent contrasts were used to investigate the relationships between plant life‐history traits and three range characteristics: area of occupancy, latitudinal extent and centroid latitude. Results For herbaceous species, seed dispersal mode, seed production and seed bank longevity exhibited significant associations with geographical range characteristics, including area of occupancy. Woody plant species exhibited fewer significant associations, although maximum height was positively associated with range centroid latitude within the study area. Furthermore, the ranges of species with limited dispersal ability were found to be more clustered than the ranges of species with morphological adaptations for long‐distance seed dispersal. Main conclusions For western European forest plant species, life‐history traits that are related to colonization ability at local scales are associated with variation in large‐scale geographical range characteristics. This finding implies that the distributions of some forest plant species in the study area may be limited by seed dispersal and colonization capacity rather than climate or other environmental factors.     

Climate-Driven Range Extension of Amphistegina (Protista,Foraminiferida): Models of Current and Predicted Future Ranges

Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year⁻¹, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.     

Tree recruitment of European tree species at their current upper elevational limits in the Swiss Alps

Aim The physical and physiological mechanisms that determine tree‐line position are reasonably well understood, but explanations for tree species‐specific upper elevational limits below the tree line are still lacking. In addition, once these uppermost positions have been identified, questions arise over whether they reflect past expansion events or active ongoing recruitment or even upslope migration. The aims of this study were: (1) to assess current tree recruitment near the cold‐temperature limit of 10 major European tree species in the Swiss Alps, and (2) to rank species by the extent that their seedlings and saplings exceed the elevational limit of adult trees, possibly reflecting effects of the recent climate warming. Location Western and eastern Alps of Switzerland. Methods For each species, occurrences were recorded along six elevational transects according to three size classes from seedlings to adult trees in 25‐m‐elevation steps above and below their regional upper elevational limit. Two methods were used to compare upper elevational limits between seedlings, saplings and adults within species. First, we focused on the uppermost occurrence observed in each life stage for a given species within each studied region; and second, we predicted their upper distribution range using polynomial models fitted to presence/absence data. Results Species exhibited a clear ranking in their elevational limit. Regional differences in species limits (western versus eastern Swiss Alps) could largely be attributed to regional differences in temperature. Observed and predicted limits of each life stage showed that all species were represented by young individuals in the vicinity of the limit of adult trees. Moreover, tree recruitment of both seedlings and saplings was detected and predicted significantly beyond adult tree limits in most of the species. Across regions, seedlings and saplings were on average found at elevations 73 m higher than adult trees. Main conclusions Under current conditions, neither seed dispersal nor seedling establishment constitutes a serious limitation of recruitment at the upper elevational limits of major European trees. The recruits found beyond the adult limits demonstrate the potential for an upward migration of trees in the Alps in response to ongoing climate warming.     

Upper range limit establishment after wildfire of an obligate-seeding montane forest tree fails to keep pace with 20th century warming

Aims How species respond to climate change at local scales will depend on how edaphic and biological characteristics interact with species physiological limits and traits such as dispersal. Obligate seeders, those species that depend on fire for recruitment, have few and episodic opportunities to track a changing climate envelope. In such cases, long-distance seed dispersal will be necessary to take advantage of rare recruitment opportunities. We examine recruitment patterns and seedling growth below, at and above the timberline of an obligate-seeding Australian montane forest tree (Eucalyptus delegatensis) after stand-replacing fire, and place these changes in the context of regional warming.Methods We use two methods to detect whether E. delegatensis can establish and persist above the timberline after stand-replacing wildfire in montane forests in south-east Australia. First, we examine establishment patterns by using belt transects at six sites to quantify how changes in post-fire recruit density with increasing distance above the timberline seven years post-fire. Second, to determine whether dispersal or physiological constraints determine post-fire establishment patterns, we transplanted seedlings and saplings into bare ground above (100 m elevation), at, and below (50 m elevation) timberline 18-months after fire. We monitored seedling growth and survival for one growing season.Important findings There was minimal upslope migration of the species after fire with most saplings observed near seed-bearing timberline trees, with only occasional outpost saplings. Transplanted seedlings and saplings survived equally well across one growing season when planted above existing timberlines, relative to saplings at or below the timberline. Seedling and sapling growth rates also did not differ across these location, although seedlings grew at much faster rates than saplings. These findings suggest that upslope growing season conditions are unlikely to limit initial range expansion of trees after fire. Instead, it is more likely that seed traits governing dispersal modulate responses to environmental gradients, and global change more generally.     

Phenotypic correlates of potential range size and range filling in European trees

Understanding the biological correlates of range sizes in plant species is important to predict the response of species to climate change. We used climate envelope models to estimate species’ potential range size and range filling for 48 European tree species. We hypothesized that potential range size relates to the climatic tolerances of plant species, and that the degree of range filling is influenced by species dispersal. We tested these hypotheses using, for each species, estimates for tolerance to cold and drought, type of dispersal, fruit size and seed size. Consistent with previous observations, we found that both the size of potential ranges and range filling increase from south to north. Species tolerance to temperature and water stress, as well as their dispersal-related traits also showed marked spatial patterns. There was, moreover, a significant positive partial correlation between cold tolerance and potential range size, when drought tolerance was partialed out, and a non-significant partial correlation between drought tolerance and potential range size, with cold tolerance partialed out. Range filling was not significantly larger in species dispersed by wind than in those dispersed by animals. There was a negative correlation between seed mass and range filling, but its statistical significance varied across different subsets of species and climate envelope algorithms; the correlation between fruit length and range filling was not significant. We conclude that climatic tolerances and dispersal traits influence species range size and range filling, and thus affect the range dynamics of species in response to global change. Using traits will therefore help to predict future distribution of species under climate change.