Phytoplankton decline in the eastern North Pacific transition zone associated with atmospheric blocking

Global climate change can significantly influence oceanic phytoplankton dynamics, and thus biogeochemical cycles and marine food webs. However, associative explanations based on the correlation between chlorophyll‐a concentration (Chl‐a) and climatic indices is inadequate to describe the mechanism of the connection between climate change, large‐scale atmospheric dynamics, and phytoplankton variability. Here, by analyzing multiple satellite observations of Chl‐a and atmospheric conditions from National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis datasets, we show that high‐latitude atmospheric blocking events over Alaska are the primary drivers of the recent decline of Chl‐a in the eastern North Pacific transition zone. These blocking events were associated with the persistence of large‐scale atmosphere pressure fields that decreased westerly winds and southward Ekman transport over the subarctic ocean gyre. Reduced southward Ekman transport leads to reductions in nutrient availability to phytoplankton in the transition zone. The findings describe a previously unidentified climatic factor that contributed to the recent decline of phytoplankton in this region and propose a mechanism of the top‐down teleconnection between the high‐latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies and the subtropical oceanic primary productivity. The results also highlight the importance of understanding teleconnection among atmosphere–ocean interactions as a means to anticipate future climate change impacts on oceanic primary production.     

Complex seasonal patterns of primary producers at the land-sea interface

Seasonal fluctuations of plant biomass and photosynthesis are key features of the Earth system because they drive variability of atmospheric CO₂, water and nutrient cycling, and food supply to consumers. There is no inventory of phytoplankton seasonal cycles in nearshore coastal ecosystems where forcings from ocean, land and atmosphere intersect. We compiled time series of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) from 114 estuaries, lagoons, inland seas, bays and shallow coastal waters around the world, and searched for seasonal patterns as common timing and amplitude of monthly variability. The data revealed a broad continuum of seasonal patterns, with large variability across and within ecosystems. This contrasts with annual cycles of terrestrial and oceanic primary producers for which seasonal fluctuations are recurrent and synchronous over large geographic regions. This finding bears on two fundamental ecological questions: (1) how do estuarine and coastal consumers adapt to an irregular and unpredictable food supply, and (2) how can we extract signals of climate change from phytoplankton observations in coastal ecosystems where local‐scale processes can mask responses to changing climate?     

Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins

Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land–sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean–atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate‐driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33‐year data set (1980–2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0–1), oligohaline (salinity = 1–12), mesohaline (salinity = 6–19), polyhaline (salinity = 19–28), and euhaline (salinity = 29–32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river‐dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats.     

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate‐related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20‐year period (1993–2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi‐decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change.     

Factors affecting the distribution of juvenile estuarine and inshore fish

The differential distributions of juveniles and adults of 25 species of teleost were investigated and compared from four habitat types in sub-tropical Moreton Bay, Queensland. The aim of the study was to identify factors influencing the distribution of juveniles, particularly the species which enter estuaries. The following habitats were sampled: a shallow, sheltered tidal estuary (Caboolture); a shallow, exposed bay with muddy substrates (Deception Bay); an exposed area of sandy substrates and seagrass (Toorbol Point) and a sheltered oceanic site with sandy substrates and seagrass (Kooringal). Data on diet, spawning seasons and recruitment periods of fry are presented together with measurements of salinity, temperature and turbidity. Species entering estuaries recruited mainly in summer (rainy season). The possible preference of juveniles for calm water, the roles of food and predation pressure, the effects of salinity, temperature and turbidity are discussed in relation to the biology and distribution of the fish. Salinity and temperature were probably not important to most juvenile fish. The effects of calm water, suitable food and predators vary according to species. Although all juveniles studied preferred shallow water, in the case of those entering estuaries, turbidity was the single most important factor. Juveniles of the same species occurred in both the estuary and Deception Bay where abiotic and biotic factors other than turbidity were different. During summer, turbidity gradients extended from east to west in Moreton Bay with highest turbidities in Caboolture estuary and Deception Bay. In winter, turbidities throughout Moreton Bay were low and relatively uniform. At this time many of the ‘clear water’ species occurred in Deception Bay. The influence of high turbidity on fish may be linked to reduced predation pressure and perhaps food supply in shallow water. Turbidity gradients in summer may aid fry in locating estuarine nursery grounds. It is apparent however, that juveniles of many species are probably not attracted to estuaries per se but to shallow turbid areas.     

127 Climate Variability and Phytoplankton Production in PNW Coast Estuaries

The west coast of North America receives strong forcing from climate modes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Estuaries are poised at a sensitive interface because estuarine biota and habitat will be affected by variability in properties and processes associated with the ocean, the watershed, and the local weather. Observations from the Washington coast and Willapa Bay illustrate these three arenas of influence. Variation in ocean upwelling and ocean thermocline depth associated with the 1997–98 El Niño versus the 1999 La Niña affected temperature and nutrient availability in Willapa Bay. Variation in river flow associated with the 2000–01 drought affected estuarine circulation and residence time. And, variation in prevailing wind direction and/or cloudiness was highly correlated with phytoplankton biomass. This situation is responsible for the complexity of understanding climate impacts on estuarine systems. In order to help evaluate which mechanisms, remote oceanic processes or local watershed/estuarine characteristics, most affected Willapa Bay's phytoplankton production, several phytoplankton species were used as indicators of water mass origin and compared with primary productivity data to assess whether phytoplankton blooms were dominated by endemic or imported species. Our analysis resolved that the highest primary production (and the appearance of Pseudo-nitzschia spp.) was associated with oceanic intrusions of phytoplankton biomass into Willapa Bay. This result underscores the dominant role that variation in ocean and climate play in controlling Pacific Northwest estuarine production. However, while the largest blooms were oceanic in origin, numerous medium-sized production events were from either oceanic or estuarine sources, indicating a complex picture.     

Predicting population consequences of ocean climate change for an ecosystem sentinel,the seabird Cassin's auklet

Forecasting the ecological effects of climate change on marine species is critical for informing greenhouse gas mitigation targets and developing marine conservation strategies that remain effective and increase species' resilience under changing climate conditions. Highly productive coastal upwelling systems are predicted to experience substantial effects from climate change, making them priorities for ecological forecasting. We used a population modeling approach to examine the consequences of ocean climate change in the California Current upwelling ecosystem on the population growth rate of the planktivorous seabird Cassin's auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus), a demographically sensitive indicator of marine climate change. We use future climate projections for sea surface temperature and upwelling intensity from a regional climate model to forecast changes in the population growth rate of the auklet population at the important Farallon Island colony in central California. Our study projected that the auklet population growth rate will experience an absolute decline of 11–45% by the end of the century, placing this population on a trajectory toward extinction. In addition, future changes in upwelling intensity and timing of peak upwelling are likely to vary across auklet foraging regions in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), producing a mosaic of climate conditions and ecological impacts across the auklet range. Overall, the Farallon Island Cassin's auklet population has been declining during recent decades, and ocean climate change in this century under a mid‐level emissions scenario is projected to accelerate this decline, leading toward population extinction. Because our study species has proven to be a sensitive indicator of oceanographic conditions in the CCE and a powerful predictor of the abundance of other important predators (i.e. salmon), the significant impacts we predicted for the Cassin's auklet provide insights into the consequences that ocean climate change may have for other plankton predators in this system.     

Disciplinary reporting affects the interpretation of climate change impacts in global oceans

Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, but different investigative approaches in physical, chemical, and biological disciplines may influence interpretations of climate‐driven changes in the ocean. Here, we review the ocean change literature from 2007 to 2012 based on 461 of the most highly cited studies in physical and chemical oceanography and three biological subdisciplines. Using highly cited studies, we focus on research that has shaped recent discourse on climate‐driven ocean change. Our review identified significant differences in spatial and temporal scales of investigation among disciplines. Physical/chemical studies had a median duration of 29 years (n = 150) and covered the greatest study areas (median 1.41 × 10⁷ km², n = 148). Few biological studies were conducted over similar spatial and temporal scales (median 8 years, n = 215; median 302 km², n = 196), suggesting a more limited ability to separate climate‐related responses from natural variability. We linked physical/chemical and biological disciplines by tracking studies examining biological responses to changing ocean conditions. Of the 545 biological responses recorded, a single physical or chemical stressor was usually implicated as the cause (59%), with temperature as the most common primary stressor (44%). The most frequently studied biological responses were changes in physiology (31%) and population abundance (30%). Differences in disciplinary studies, as identified in this review, can ultimately influence how researchers interpret climate‐related impacts in marine systems. We identified research gaps and the need for more discourse in (1) the Indian and other Southern Hemisphere ocean basins; (2) research themes such as archaea, bacteria, viruses, mangroves, turtles, and ocean acidification; (3) physical and chemical stressors such as dissolved oxygen, salinity, and upwelling; and (4) adaptive responses of marine organisms to climate‐driven ocean change. Our findings reveal that highly cited biological studies are rarely conducted on scales that match those of physical and chemical studies. Rather, we suggest a need for measuring responses at biologically relevant scales.     

Effects of hydrological forcing on the structure of a tropical estuarine food web

River flow can impact which sources of particulate organic matter (POM) fuel estuarine food webs. Here, we used stable carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) isotope analyses to compare how contributions of different POM sources (terrestrial, estuarine, and marine) to the diets of zooplankton and juvenile fishes differed between low and high river flow conditions, as well as spatially across a tropical estuary, Hilo Bay, Hawaii, USA. Diets of zooplankton and juvenile fishes were affected by river flow conditions, but the magnitude and the change in the basal resources depended on the location of the station in the estuary relative to the ocean and the river mouths. Consumers from the station most isolated from the ocean and with groundwater and overland flow inputs, utilized a combination of estuarine and terrestrial POM during both low and high river flow conditions and exhibited less variability in their basal resources than stations with direct ocean exchange. Consumers from stations in the Bay most affected by ocean exchange and river inputs utilized a combination of estuarine, terrestrial, and marine POM during low flow conditions, but shifted to marine and terrestrial POM during high river flow conditions. This shift to using terrestrial POM during high river flow conditions was substantial and up to 40% higher than values measured in other estuaries. Factors suspected to be affecting which POM source(s) consumers use in Hilo Bay are gross primary production, biological availability of exported terrestrial OM, and estuarine bacteria biomass, all of which are affected by river flow. Overall, our results suggest that Hilo Bay's food web and possibly those from other tropical estuaries are vulnerable to changes in hydrology, which may be further enhanced by global climate change.     

Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions

Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate‐change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats – from short‐lived phytoplankton to long‐lived corals – in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate‐change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate‐change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate‐change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate‐change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO₂ (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to physiologically straddle wide‐ranging timescales in the alteration of ocean conditions, including the need to adapt to rapidly rising CO₂ and also acclimate to environmental heterogeneity in more slowly changing properties such as warming.     

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near‐term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood

Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine‐scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind‐driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs’ ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high‐resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine‐scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under ‘normal’ combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020–2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high‐resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near‐term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean–atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse‐scale GCMs.     

Coastal upwelling supplies oxygen-depleted water to the Columbia River estuary

Low dissolved oxygen (DO) is a common feature of many estuarine and shallow-water environments, and is often attributed to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment from terrestrial-fluvial pathways. However, recent events in the U.S. Pacific Northwest have highlighted that wind-forced upwelling can cause naturally occurring low DO water to move onto the continental shelf, leading to mortalities of benthic fish and invertebrates. Coastal estuaries in the Pacific Northwest are strongly linked to ocean forcings, and here we report observations on the spatial and temporal patterns of oxygen concentration in the Columbia River estuary. Hydrographic measurements were made from transect (spatial survey) or anchor station (temporal survey) deployments over a variety of wind stresses and tidal states during the upwelling seasons of 2006 through 2008. During this period, biologically stressful levels of dissolved oxygen were observed to enter the Columbia River estuary from oceanic sources, with minimum values close to the hypoxic threshold of 2.0 mg L(-1). Riverine water was consistently normoxic. Upwelling wind stress controlled the timing and magnitude of low DO events, while tidal-modulated estuarine circulation patterns influenced the spatial extent and duration of exposure to low DO water. Strong upwelling during neap tides produced the largest impact on the estuary. The observed oxygen concentrations likely had deleterious behavioral and physiological consequences for migrating juvenile salmon and benthic crabs. Based on a wind-forced supply mechanism, low DO events are probably common to the Columbia River and other regional estuaries and if conditions on the shelf deteriorate further, as observations and models predict, Pacific Northwest estuarine habitats could experience a decrease in environmental quality.     

Amelioration of ocean acidification and warming effects through physiological buffering of a macroalgae

Concurrent anthropogenic global climate change and ocean acidification are expected to have a negative impact on calcifying marine organisms. While knowledge of biological responses of organisms to oceanic stress has emerged from single‐species experiments, these do not capture ecologically relevant scenarios where the potential for multi‐organism physiological interactions is assessed. Marine algae provide an interesting case study, as their photosynthetic activity elevates pH in the surrounding microenvironment, potentially buffering more acidic conditions for associated epiphytes. We present findings that indicate increased tolerance of an important epiphytic foraminifera, Marginopora vertebralis, to the effects of increased temperature (±3°C) and pCO₂ (~1,000 µatm) when associated with its common algal host, Laurencia intricata. Specimens of M. vertebralis were incubated for 15 days in flow‐through aquaria simulating current and end‐of‐century temperature and pH conditions. Physiological measures of growth (change in wet weight), calcification (measured change in total alkalinity in closed bottles), photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), total chlorophyll, photosynthesis (oxygen flux), and respiration were determined. When incubated in isolation, M. vertebralis exhibited reduced growth in end‐of‐century projections of ocean acidification conditions, while calcification rates were lowest in the high‐temperature, low‐pH treatment. Interestingly, association with L. intricata ameliorated these stress effects with the growth and calcification rates of M. vertebralis being similar to those observed in ambient conditions. Total chlorophyll levels in M. vertebralis decreased when in association with L. intricata, while maximum photochemical efficiency increased in ambient conditions. Net production estimates remained similar between M. vertebralis in isolation and in association with L. intricata, although both production and respiration rates of M. vertebralis were significantly higher when associated with L. intricata. These results indicate that the association with L. intricata increases the resilience of M. vertebralis to climate change stress, providing one of the first examples of physiological buffering by a marine alga that can ameliorate the negative effects of changing ocean conditions.     

Greenhouse gas,upwelling‐favorable winds,and the future of coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems

Coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems generally represent the most productive large marine ecosystems of the world's oceans, in terms of both primary production rates and tonnages of exploitable fish produced. The Peruvian upwelling system, in particular, stands out as a major factor in world fish production. The Pacific trade winds have traditionally been considered to be the primary driving force for the upwelling system off Peru, but are projected to weaken as climate change proceeds. This leads to concern that the upwelling process in the Peru system, to which its productivity is linked, may likewise weaken. However, other mechanisms involving greenhouse‐associated intensification of thermal low‐pressure cells over the coastal landmasses of upwelling regions suggest general intensification of wind‐driven ocean upwelling in coastal upwelling regions of the world's oceans. But although certain empirical results have supported this expectation, it has not been consistently corroborated in climate model simulations, possibly because the scale of the coastal intensification may be small relative to the scales that are appropriately reflected in the standard models. Here we summarize available evidence for the intensification mechanism and present a proxy test that uses variations in water vapor, the dominant natural greenhouse gas, to offer multiple‐realization empirical evidence for action of the proposed mechanism in the real world situation. While many potential consequences to the future of marine ecosystems would codepend on climate change‐related changes in the thermocline and nutricline structures, an important subset, involving potential increased propensities for hypoxia, noxious gas eruptions, toxic red tide blooms, and/or jellyfish outbreaks, may depend more directly on changes in the upwelling‐favorable wind itself. A prospective role of fisheries in either mitigating or reinforcing this particular class of effects is suggested.     

Habitat modelling of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Electrona antarctica</Emphasis> (Myctophidae,Pisces) in Kerguelen by generalized additive models and geographic information systems

Electrona antarctica is one of the most abundant mesopelagic fishes in the oceanic zone surrounding the Kerguelen Archipelago in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. Generalized additive models (GAM) combined with geographical information systems (GIS) were used to predict and map the abundance of this species according to three environmental variables: sea surface temperature, bathymetry and surface chlorophyll a. The model was applied on the Antarctic Polar Front in the eastern part of Kerguelen Archipelago. E. antarctica seems to be linked to areas presenting low chlorophyll a concentrations, depths greater than 500 m and temperatures lower than 5°C. The model was then applied to the Kerguelen’s plateau for three different years: 1998, 1999 and 2000. The position of Antarctic Polar Front and the intensity of an upwelling play an important role in the abundance variability of E. antarctica. Furthermore, the model allows the understanding of the habitat of E. antarctica and its trophic place in the pelagic ecosystem.     

Covariance Analysis of Chlorophyll Distribution in the Sundays River Estuary,Eastern Cape

Summary

An analysis of covariance performed on chlorophyll a distribution data from the Sundays River estuary identified five persistent water masses with significantly different chlorophyll a contents. These corresponded to different hydrodynamic regions within the estuary. The relationship between salinity and chlorophyll a was used to identify a transition zone between the low-salinity upper estuary and the brackish riverine inflow. Chlorophyll a concentrations ranged from <6 μg 1^?1 near the mouth to >100 μg 1^?1 in the middle and upper reaches. High variance of chlorophyll a data in this region was the result of temporal chlorophyll a fluctuations in two time scales. The first related to the daily ebb/tide and the second to the lunar spring/neap tidal cycle. Unlike its importance in larger and deeper estuaries, light played only a minor role in the horizontal distribution of chlorophyll a. The presence of a chlorophyll a maximum in the turbid low salinity region is explained in terms of the relatively constant photic depth/mixed depth ratio along the estuary and the high residence time of water in this region.     

Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change

Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species‐specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the ‘business‐as‐usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large‐bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks of exploited marine species using publicly and readily available information.     

Growth,condition, and maturity schedules of an estuarine fish species change in estuaries following increased hypoxia due to climate change

Understanding challenges posed by climate change to estuaries and their faunas remains a high priority for managing these systems and their communities. Freshwater discharge into a range of estuary types in south‐western Australia between 1990 and 2015 is shown to be related to rainfall. This largely accounts for decreases in discharge in this microtidal region being more pronounced on the west coast than south coast, where rainfall decline was less. Results of an oxygen‐balance model imply that, as demonstrated by empirical data for the Swan River Estuary, declines in discharge into a range of estuary types would be accompanied by increases in the extent of hypoxia. In 2013–15, growth and body condition of the teleost Acanthopagrus butcheri varied markedly among three permanently open, one intermittently‐open, one seasonally‐closed and one normally‐closed estuary, with average time taken by females to reach the minimum legal length (MLL) of 250 mm ranging from 3.6 to 17.7 years. It is proposed that, in a given restricted period, these inter‐estuary variations in biological characteristics are related more to differences in factors, such as food resources and density, than to temperature and salinity. The biological characteristics of A. butcheri in the four estuaries, for which there are historical data, changed markedly between 1993–96 and 2013–15. Growth of both sexes, and also body condition in all but the normally‐closed estuary, declined, with females taking between 1.7 and 2.9 times longer to attain the MLL. Irrespective of period, body condition, and growth are positively related. Age at maturity typically increased between periods, but length at maturity declined only in the estuary in which growth was greatest. The plasticity of the biological characteristics of A. butcheri, allied with confinement to its natal estuary and ability to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions, makes this sparid and comparable species excellent subjects for assessing estuarine “health.”     

Multifarious anchovy and sardine regimes in the Humboldt Current System during the last 150 years

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) has the highest production of forage fish in the world, although it is highly variable and the future of the primary component, anchovy, is uncertain in the context of global warming. Paradigms based on late 20th century observations suggest that large‐scale forcing controls decadal‐scale fluctuations of anchovy and sardine across different boundary currents of the Pacific. We develop records of anchovy and sardine fluctuations since 1860 AD using fish scales from multiple sites containing laminated sediments and compare them with Pacific basin‐scale and regional indices of ocean climate variability. Our records reveal two main anchovy and sardine phases with a timescale that is not consistent with previously proposed periodicities. Rather, the regime shifts in the HCS are related to 3D habitat changes driven by changes in upwelling intensity from both regional and large‐scale forcing. Moreover, we show that a long‐term increase in coastal upwelling translates via a bottom‐up mechanism to top predators suggesting that the warming climate, at least up to the start of the 21st century, was favorable for fishery productivity in the HCS.     

Distribution of chlorophyll a and Gymnodinium catenatum associated with coastal upwelling plumes off central Portugal

The composition and the distribution patterns of phytoplankton were studied during the early stages of an upwelling event in Lisbon Bay, in September 1999. The distribution of chlorophyll a and phytoplankton assemblages was asymmetric about the upwelling centre, with the highest abundance of chlorophyll a observed at the inner (coastal) side of the plume. The diatom Cylindrotheca closterium dominated in the upwelling core and the chain forming diatom Proboscia alata dominated at the outer side of the feature within mature oceanic waters. Chain forming dinoflagellates such as Alexandrium affine and the toxin producer Gymnodinium catenatum were most numerous at the inshore side of the upwelling front. These patterns were compared with the distribution of G. catenatum observed in the same area in 1985 and 1994, under conditions of fully developed upwelling when chlorophyll a and G. catenatum maxima were observed extending southwards on the inshore side of an upwelling plume. Different hydrodynamic conditions at each side of upwelling plumes associated with pronounced Capes are evoked to explain the asymmetry on the phytoplankton patterns.