Upslope Range Shifts of Andean Dung Beetles in Response to Deforestation: Compounding and Confounding Effects of Microclimatic Change

Warmer, and sometimes drier, conditions associated with global climate change are driving many species to shift poleward and/or upslope. I hypothesized that microclimatic changes related to deforestation cause similar shifts for forest species persisting within degraded landscapes. This appears to be the first study to examine this novel hypothesis. I examined elevational distributions of dung beetle communities along parallel intact and disturbed elevational gradients from 290 to 3450 m asl in the Andes of southeastern Peru. Deforested sites were consistently warmer and drier than forested sites. To maintain the same ambient temperature as in forest, species in a deforested landscape would need to shift on average 489±59 m upslope. Dung beetle species showed a mean upslope range shift of 132±64 m (maximum=743 m) in the deforested landscape. Eight species occurred farther upslope in the degraded landscape, while none shifted downslope. In addition to upper range limit expansions, six species shifting upslope also showed range contractions or population declines at their lower range boundary. High elevation and disturbance‐tolerant species did not show range shifts. These findings suggest that land‐use change may both confound and compound the influence of global climate change on biodiversity. Synergies between habitat degradation and climate change could more than double previous range shift projections for this century, leading to unexpectedly rapid changes in biodiversity, especially for sensitive organisms such as tropical insects. On the other hand, range shifts caused by habitat degradation may be mistakenly attributed to global climate change. Abstract in Spanish is available in the online version of this article.     

Range dynamics of small mammals along an elevational gradient over an 80‐year interval

One expected response to observed global warming is an upslope shift of species elevational ranges. Here, we document changes in the elevational distributions of the small mammals within the Ruby Mountains in northeastern Nevada over an 80‐year interval. We quantified range shifts by comparing distributional records from recent comprehensive field surveys (2006–2008) to earlier surveys (1927–1929) conducted at identical and nearby locations. Collector field notes from the historical surveys provided detailed trapping records and locality information, and museum specimens enabled confirmation of species' identifications. To ensure that observed shifts in range did not result from sampling bias, we employed a binomial likelihood model (introduced here) using likelihood ratios to calculate confidence intervals around observed range limits. Climate data indicate increases in both precipitation and summer maximum temperature between sampling periods. Increases in winter minimum temperatures were only evident at mid to high elevations. Consistent with predictions of change associated with climate warming, we document upslope range shifts for only two mesic‐adapted species. In contrast, no xeric‐adapted species expanded their ranges upslope. Rather, they showed either static distributions over time or downslope contraction or expansion. We attribute these unexpected findings to widespread land‐use driven habitat change at lower elevations. Failure to account for land‐use induced changes in both baseline assessments and in predicting shifts in species distributions may provide misleading objectives for conservation policies and management practices.     

The influence of natural disturbances on developmental patterns in Acadian mixedwood forests from 1946 to 2008

We used dendrochronological analyses to identify periods of natural disturbance and resulting growth responses in 32 mixed species stands in the Acadian forest. Stands represented five different development patterns, based upon 1946 softwood (SW) content (70–80%, termed SW versus 30–60%, termed mixedwood (MW)) and change in SW content from 1946 to 2006: SW-stable, SW-declining, MW-fluctuating, MW-stable, and MW-declining. Standardized growth chronologies were developed from 1163 increment cores sampled from balsam fir (Abies balsamea), red spruce (Picea rubens), yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis), and sugar maple (Acer saccharum). Growth chronologies clearly identified three spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks from 1914 to 1921, 1954 to 1961, and 1975 to 1984, and birch dieback from 1938 to 1948. Stand developmental patterns were caused by species characteristics and multiple interacting disturbances, resulting in mortality, growth reductions, releases, and establishment of new cohorts. Balsam fir was present in all stands, but its tendency to establish and release from advanced regeneration following budworm-caused mortality resulted in cyclical proportions of fir in the canopy. Red spruce was less vulnerable to spruce budworm and longer lived, allowing them to persist and better withstand disturbance. Periodic growth index values less than 0.9 for fir and spruce were correlated with mortality of softwoods caused by defoliation, which resulted in release and growth index values >1.1 for sugar maple. Our results demonstrated substantial variation in mixedwood development patterns over a 60-year period within a small (45 km) area.     

Upslope migration of Andean trees

Aim Climate change causes shifts in species distributions, or ‘migrations’. Despite the centrality of species distributions to biodiversity conservation, the demonstrated large migration of tropical plant species in response to climate change in the past, and the expected sensitivity of species distributions to modern climate change, no study has tested for modern species migrations in tropical plants. Here we conduct a first test of the hypothesis that increasing temperatures are causing tropical trees to migrate to cooler areas. Location Tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot, south‐eastern Peru, South America. Methods We use data from repeated (2003/04–2007/08) censuses of 14 1‐ha forest inventory plots spanning an elevational gradient from 950 to 3400 m in Manu National Park in south‐eastern Peru, to characterize changes in the elevational distributions of 38 Andean tree genera. We also analyse changes in the genus‐level composition of the inventory plots through time. Results We show that most tropical Andean tree genera shifted their mean distributions upslope over the study period and that the mean rate of migration is approximately 2.5–3.5 vertical metres upslope per year. Consistent with upward migrations we also find increasing abundances of tree genera previously distributed at lower elevations in the majority of study plots. Main conclusions These findings are in accord with the a priori hypothesis of upward shifts in species ranges due to elevated temperatures, and are potentially the first documented evidence of present‐day climate‐driven migrations in a tropical plant community. The observed mean rate of change is less than predicted from the temperature increases for the region, possibly due to the influence of changes in moisture or non‐climatic factors such as substrate, species interactions, lags in tree community response and/or dispersal limitations. Whatever the cause(s), continued slower‐than‐expected migration of tropical Andean trees would indicate a limited ability to respond to increased temperatures, which may lead to increased extinction risks with further climate change.     

The Origin and Dynamics of Subalpine White Spruce and Balsam Fir Stands in Boreal Eastern North America

Associations among the few tree species in the North American boreal landscape are the result of complex interactions between climate, biota, and historical disturbances during the Holocene. The closed-crown boreal forest of eastern North America is subdivided into two ecological regions having distinct tree species associations; the balsam fir zone and the black spruce zone, south and north of 49°N, respectively. Subalpine old-growth stands dominated by trees species typical of the balsam fir forest flora (either balsam fir or white spruce) are found on high plateaus, some of which are isolated within the black spruce zone. Here we identified the ecological processes responsible for the distinct forest associations in the subalpine belt across the eastern boreal landscape. Extensive radiocarbon dating, species composition, and size structure analyses indicated contrasted origin and dynamics of the subalpine forests between the two ecological regions. In the black spruce zone, the subalpine belt is a mosaic of post-fire white spruce or balsam fir stands coexisting at similar elevation on the high plateaus. With increasing time without wildfire, the subalpine forests become structurally similar to the balsam fir forest of the fir zone. These results concur with the hypothesis that the subalpine forests of this area are protected remnants of an historical northern expansion of the fir zone. Its replacement by the fire-prone black spruce forest flora was caused by recurrent fires. In the subalpine belt of the fir zone, no fire was recorded for several millennia. Harsh climate at high altitude is the primary factor explaining white spruce dominance over balsam fir forming a distinct subalpine white spruce belt above the balsam fir dominated forest.     

Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming

Predicting climate‐driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30‐year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography.     

Differential drought responses between saplings and adult trees in four co-occurring species of New England

Tree-ring characteristics in four species were examined to address whether co-occurring mature trees of different successional status respond differently to drought, and whether saplings of these species have a greater response to drought than mature trees. We examined saplings and mature trees of paper birch, yellow birch, red maple and sugar maple, which varied in successional status (shade-tolerance) and co-occurred at Harvard Forest, Petersham, Mass., USA. Three drought events in 1964–1966, 1981 and 1995 were identified using climate data. For mature trees, there was no significant interspecific difference in relative changes in ring-width index (RWI) during the 1964–1966 and 1995 drought events. However, the interspecific difference was significant in the 1981 drought event. Response function analysis for mature trees showed that the radial growth of sugar maple was mainly controlled by spring and summer precipitation, red maple by spring and summer precipitation and temperature, yellow birch by winter and summer precipitation, and spring and summer temperature, and paper birch by spring and summer precipitation and spring temperature. Saplings of sugar maple and yellow birch, but not red maple and paper birch, showed significant positive correlations between RWI and annual total precipitation. In the 1995 drought event, saplings and mature trees of red maple and paper birch differed significantly in drought responses, but this was not true in sugar maple and yellow birch. Our results do not support a generally greater response in saplings than in mature trees, nor an early- versus late successional difference in drought responses.     

Effect of historical land‐use and climate change on tree‐climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree‐climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree‐climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land‐use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land‐use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land‐use interactions are compounding, in which historical land‐use reinforces shifts in species‐climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land‐use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary‐based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.     

Tree recruitment of European tree species at their current upper elevational limits in the Swiss Alps

Aim The physical and physiological mechanisms that determine tree‐line position are reasonably well understood, but explanations for tree species‐specific upper elevational limits below the tree line are still lacking. In addition, once these uppermost positions have been identified, questions arise over whether they reflect past expansion events or active ongoing recruitment or even upslope migration. The aims of this study were: (1) to assess current tree recruitment near the cold‐temperature limit of 10 major European tree species in the Swiss Alps, and (2) to rank species by the extent that their seedlings and saplings exceed the elevational limit of adult trees, possibly reflecting effects of the recent climate warming. Location Western and eastern Alps of Switzerland. Methods For each species, occurrences were recorded along six elevational transects according to three size classes from seedlings to adult trees in 25‐m‐elevation steps above and below their regional upper elevational limit. Two methods were used to compare upper elevational limits between seedlings, saplings and adults within species. First, we focused on the uppermost occurrence observed in each life stage for a given species within each studied region; and second, we predicted their upper distribution range using polynomial models fitted to presence/absence data. Results Species exhibited a clear ranking in their elevational limit. Regional differences in species limits (western versus eastern Swiss Alps) could largely be attributed to regional differences in temperature. Observed and predicted limits of each life stage showed that all species were represented by young individuals in the vicinity of the limit of adult trees. Moreover, tree recruitment of both seedlings and saplings was detected and predicted significantly beyond adult tree limits in most of the species. Across regions, seedlings and saplings were on average found at elevations 73 m higher than adult trees. Main conclusions Under current conditions, neither seed dispersal nor seedling establishment constitutes a serious limitation of recruitment at the upper elevational limits of major European trees. The recruits found beyond the adult limits demonstrate the potential for an upward migration of trees in the Alps in response to ongoing climate warming.     

Climate change induced elevational range shifts of Himalayan tree species

Global warming may force montane species to shift upward to keep pace with their shifting climate niche. How species differences in such distribution shifts depend on their elevational positions, elevation-dependent warming rates, and other environmental constraints, or plant functional traits is poorly understood. Here, we analyzed for 137 Himalayan tree species how distribution shifts vary with elevational niche positions, environmental constraints, and their functional traits. We developed ecological niche models using MaxEnt by combining species survey and botanical collections data with 19 environmental predictors. Species distributions were projected to 1985 and 2050 conditions, and elevational range parameters and distribution areas were derived. Under the worst-case RCP 8.5 scenario, species are predicted to shift, on average, 3 m/year in optimum elevation, and have 33% increase in distribution area. Highland species showed faster predicted elevational shifts than lowland species. Lowland and highland species are predicted to expand in distribution area in contrast to mid-elevation species. Tree species for which species distribution models are driven by responses to temperature, aridity, or soil clay content showed the strongest predicted upslope shifts. Tree species with conservative trait values that enable them to survive resource poor conditions (i.e., narrow conduits) showed larger predicted upslope shifts than species with wide conduits. The predicted average upslope shift in maximum elevation (8 m/year) is >2 times faster than the current observations indicating that many species will not be able to track climate change and potentially go extinct, unless they are supported by active conservation measures, such as assisted migration.     

Effects of soil calcium and aluminum on the physiology of balsam fir and red spruce saplings in northern New England

We examined the influence of calcium (Ca) and aluminum (Al) nutrition on the foliar physiology of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) and balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.] in northern New England, USA. At the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (NH, USA), spruce and fir saplings were sampled from control, Al-, and Ca-supplemented plots at a long-established nutrient perturbation (NuPert) study in fall 2008. Measurements included cation concentrations (roots and foliage), dark-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence (F _v/F _m), soluble sugar concentrations, and ascorbate peroxidase (APX) and glutathione reductase (GR) activity in current-year foliage. Additional untreated saplings were sampled from base-rich Sleepers River (VT) and base-poor Jeffers Brook (NH) for F _v/F _m and foliar nutrient concentrations. At NuPert, there were significantly greater Ca concentrations and Ca:Al ratios in roots from the Ca end vs. the Al end of the Al-control-Ca addition gradient. There were also trends toward greater foliar Ca and Ca:Al ratios and lower Al concentrations across the treatment gradient at NuPert and for foliage at Sleepers River vs. Jeffers Brook. At NuPert, F _v/F _m and APX activity increased across the treatment gradient, and red spruce was higher in these measures than balsam fir. These patterns were also observed when Jeffers Brook and Sleepers River were compared. Increased Ca availability appeared to enhance the ability of red spruce and balsam fir to repair oxidative stress damage, including photooxidation. Our findings support work indicating a greater contemporary level of stress for balsam fir relative to red spruce, which is surprising considering the well-documented regional decline of spruce.     

Life stage,not climate change,explains observed tree range shifts

Ongoing climate change is expected to shift tree species distribution and therefore affect forest biodiversity and ecosystem services. To assess and project tree distributional shifts, researchers may compare the distribution of juvenile and adult trees under the assumption that differences between tree life stages reflect distributional shifts triggered by climate change. However, the distribution of tree life stages could differ within the lifespan of trees, therefore, we hypothesize that currently observed distributional differences could represent shifts over ontogeny as opposed to climatically driven changes. Here, we test this hypothesis with data from 1435 plots resurveyed after more than three decades across the Western Carpathians. We compared seedling, sapling and adult distribution of 12 tree species along elevation, temperature and precipitation gradients. We analyzed (i) temporal shifts between the surveys and (ii) distributional differences between tree life stages within both surveys. Despite climate warming, tree species distribution of any life stage did not shift directionally upward along elevation between the surveys. Temporal elevational shifts were species specific and an order of magnitude lower than differences among tree life stages within the surveys. Our results show that the observed range shifts among tree life stages are more consistent with ontogenetic differences in the species' environmental requirements than with responses to recent climate change. The distribution of seedlings substantially differed from saplings and adults, while the distribution of saplings did not differ from adults, indicating a critical transition between seedling and sapling tree life stages. Future research has to take ontogenetic differences among life stages into account as we found that distributional differences recently observed worldwide may not reflect climate change but rather the different environmental requirements of tree life stages.     

The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges

Projected effects of climate change on animal distributions primarily focus on consequences of temperature and largely ignore impacts of altered precipitation. While much evidence supports temperature‐driven range shifts, there is substantial heterogeneity in species' responses that remains poorly understood. We resampled breeding ranges of birds across three elevational transects in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA, that were extensively surveyed in the early 20th century. Presence–absence comparisons were made at 77 sites and occupancy models were used to separate significant range shifts from artifacts of false absences. Over the past century, rising temperature pushed species upslope while increased precipitation pulled them downslope, resulting in range shifts that were heterogeneous within species and among regions. While 84% of species shifted their elevational distribution, only 51% of upper or lower range boundary shifts were upslope. By comparison, 82% of range shifts were in a direction predicted by changes in either temperature or precipitation. Species were significantly more likely to shift elevational ranges than their ecological counterparts if they had small clutch sizes, defended all‐purpose territories, and were year‐round residents, results that were in opposition to a priori predictions from dispersal‐related hypotheses. Our results illustrate the complex interplay between species‐specific and region‐specific factors that structure patterns of breeding range change over long time periods. Future projections of increasing temperature and highly variable precipitation regimes create a strong potential for heterogeneous responses by species at range margins.     

Patterns of tree replacement: canopy effects on understory pattern in hemlock-northern hardwood forests

The effect of canopy trees on understory seedling and sapling distribution is examined in near-climax hemlock-northern hardwood forests in order to predict tree replacement patterns and assess compositional stability. Canopy trees and saplings were mapped in 65 0.1-ha plots in 16 tracts of old-growth forests dominated by Tsuga canadensis, Acer saccharum, Fagus grandifolia, Tilia americana, and Betula lutea in the northeastern United States. Seedlings were tallied in sub-plots. Canopy influence on individual saplings and sub-plots was calculated, using several indices for canopy species individually and in total. For each species sapling and seedling distributions were compared to those distributions expected if saplings were located independently of canopy influence. Non-random distributions indicated that sapling and seedling establishment or mortality were related to the species of nearby canopy trees. Hemlock canopy trees discriminate against beech and maple saplings while sugar maple canopy favors beech saplings relative to other species. Basswood canopy discourages growth of saplings of other species, but produces basal sprouts. Yellow birch saplings were rarely seen beneath intact canopy. Since trees in these forests are usually replaced by suppressed seedlings or saplings, canopy-understory interactions should influence replacement probabilities and, ultimately, stand composition. I suggest that hemlock and basswood tend to be self-replacing, maple and beech tend to replace each other, and birch survives as a fugitive by occupying occasional suitable gaps. This suggests that these species may co-exist within stands for long periods with little likelihood of successional elimination of any species. There is some suggestion of geographical variation in these patterns.     

Recruitment patterns and northward tree migration through gap dynamics in an old-growth white pine forest in northern Ontario

Decreases in abundances and declines in growth of eastern white pine over the past century due mainly to human activities have resulted in few large intact old-growth white pine forests in Ontario. These stands may be vulnerable to replacement by deciduous species from temperate forests further south, where recruitment in canopy gap disturbances can greatly define the regeneration process. We investigated recruitment dynamics in canopy gaps of an old-growth white pine forest of Temagami, northern Ontario, Canada, the northern limit of the temperate?Cboreal ecotone. White pine, red pine, black spruce and eastern white cedar represented 85?% of the mature canopy abundance, where trees and saplings established equally in gaps and the closed canopy. Balsam fir and paper birch were more abundant in gaps, showing increases of abundance and basal area with increases in gap size representing canopy self-replacement (balsam fir) and autogenic succession (paper birch). Red maple, at its northernmost range limit, was the only species to show linear increases of abundance and basal area with increases in gap size and gap age. This result, along with adult red maples present in gaps but absent from the closed canopy, identifies the establishment of a northward migrating species in gaps as hypothesized for pine forests at the northern limit of this broad ecotone. We discuss how migration pressures, coupled with pine recruitment limitation through reduced fire frequency by regional fire suppression and predicted future increased warming of 2?C4?°C over the next century, threatens replacement of old-growth white pine forests at this latitude with northward migrating tree species found further south.     

Biodiversity conservation in old-growth boreal forest: black spruce and balsam fir snags harbour distinct assemblages of saproxylic beetles

Biodiversity conservation of forest ecosystems strongly relies on effective dead wood management. However, the responses of saproxylic communities to variations in dead wood characteristics remains poorly documented, a lack of knowledge that may impede the development of efficient management strategies. We established the relationship between saproxylic beetles—at the species and community levels—and attributes of black spruce and balsam fir in old-growth boreal forests. The relationship was first evaluated for individual snag bole segments, and then for forest stands. A total of 168 bole sections were collected in summer 2006 along a compositional gradient ranging from black spruce-dominated stands to balsam fir-dominated ones, in a boreal forest dominated by >90-year-old stands. A total of 16,804 beetles belonging to 47 species emerged from bole segments, with 21% of the species being found exclusively in black spruce snags and 36% exclusively in balsam fir snags. Black spruce and balsam fir snags thus contributed differently to forest biodiversity by being inhabited by different saproxylic communities. Wood density was an important attribute in the host-use patterns for several species of saproxylic beetles, but no relationship was found between snag availability within stands and abundance of beetles strongly linked to either black spruce or balsam fir. Our study outlines the relative contribution of tree compositional diversity to saproxylic species, while highlighting the contribution of black spruce and balsam fir to animal diversity in old-growth boreal forests.     

Persistence of balsam fir and black spruce populations in the mixedwood and coniferous bioclimatic domain of eastern North America

The boreal ecocline (ca 49°N) between the southern mixedwood (dominated by balsam fir) and the northern coniferous bioclimatic domain (dominated by black spruce) may be explained by a northward decrease of balsam fir regeneration, explaining the gradual shift to black spruce dominance. 7,010 sample plots, with absence of major disturbances, were provided by the Quebec Ministry of Forest, Fauna, and Parks. The regeneration (sapling abundance) of balsam fir and black spruce were compared within and between the two bioclimatic domains, accounting for parental trees, main soil type (clay and till) and climate conditions, reflected by summer growing degree‐days above 5°C (GDD_5), total summer precipitation (May–August; PP_MA). Parental trees and soil type determined balsam fir and black spruce regeneration. Balsam fir and black spruce, respectively, showed higher regeneration in the mixedwood and the coniferous bioclimatic domains. Overall, higher regeneration was obtained on till for balsam fir, and on clay soils for black spruce. GDD_5 and PP_MA were beneficial for balsam fir regeneration on clay and till soils, respectively, while they were detrimental for black spruce regeneration. At a population level, balsam fir required at least 28% of parental tree basal area in the mixedwood, and 38% in the coniferous bioclimatic domains to maintain a regeneration at least equal to the mean regeneration of the whole study area. However, black spruce required 82% and 79% of parental trees basal area in the mixedwood and the coniferous domains, respectively. The northern limit of the mixedwood bioclimatic domain was attributed to a gradual decrease toward the north of balsam fir regeneration most likely due to cooler temperatures, shorter growing seasons, and decrease of the parental trees further north of this northern limit. However, balsam fir still persists above this northern limit, owing to a patchy occurrence of small parental trees populations, and good establishment substrates.     

Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits

Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long‐term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970–1978, 2000–2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr^?1, than for adults, 0.13 km yr^?1. Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average <50% of the velocity required to equal the spatial velocity of climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems.     

Onward but not always upward: individualistic elevational shifts of tree species in subtropical montane forests

Ongoing global climate change is driving widespread shifts in species distributions. Trends show frequent upwards shifts of treelines, but information on changes in montane forest below the treeline and in the tropics and subtropics is limited, despite the importance of these areas for biodiversity and ecosystem function. Patterns of species shifts in tropical and subtropical regions are likely to be more complex and individualistic than global averages suggest due to high species diversity and strong influence of competition, alongside direct climatic limitations on distributions. To address the question of how subtropical montane tree species are likely to move as climate changes, we used an extensive national forest inventory to estimate distribution shifts of 75 tree species in Taiwan by comparing the optimum elevation and range edges of adults and juveniles within species. Overall there was a significant difference in optimum elevation of adults and juveniles. Life stage mismatches suggested upward shifts in 35% of species but downward shifts of over half (56%), while 8% appeared stable. Upward elevation shifts were disproportionately common in high elevation species, whilst mid to low elevation species suggested greater variation in shift direction. Whilst previous research on mountain forest range shifts has been dominated by work addressing changes in treeline position, we show that although high elevation species shift up, below the treeline species may shift individualistically, heralding widespread changes in forest communities over coming decades. The wide variation of responses indicated is likely driven by individual species responses to interacting environmental factors such as competition, topography and anthropogenic influences across the broad range of forest types investigated. As global environmental changes continue, more detailed understanding of tree range shifts across a wide spectrum of forests will allow us to prepare for the implications of such changes for biodiversity, ecosystem function and dependent human populations.     

Reproductive potential of balsam fir (Abies balsamea), white spruce (Picea glauca), and black spruce (P. mariana) at the ecotone between mixedwood and coniferous forests in the boreal zone of western Quebec

The reproductive potentials of balsam fir and white spruce (co-dominants in mixedwood forests) and black spruce (dominant in coniferous forests) were studied to explain the location of the ecotone between the two forest types in the boreal zone of Quebec. Four sites were selected along a latitudinal gradient crossing the ecotone. Cone crop, number of seeds per cone, percentage filled seeds, and percentage germination were measured for each species. Balsam fir and white spruce cone crops were significantly lower in the coniferous than in the mixedwood forest, while black spruce had greater crop constancy and regularity between both forest types. Mast years were more frequent for black spruce than for balsam fir in both forest types (mast year data not available for white spruce). The number of seeds per cone was more related to cone size than to forest type for all species. Black spruce produced more filled seeds in the coniferous forest than balsam fir or white spruce. The sum of growing degree-days and the maximum temperature of the warmest month (both for the year prior to cone production) significantly affected balsam fir cone production. The climate-related northward decrease in reproductive potential of balsam fir and white spruce could partly explain the position of the northern limit of the mixedwood forest. This could change drastically, however, as the ongoing climate warming might cancel this competitive advantage of black spruce.