Vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to elevated CO2 and climate change in arid and semiarid western North America

Riparian ecosystems, already greatly altered by water management, land development, and biological invasion, are being further altered by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations ([CO₂]) and climate change, particularly in arid and semiarid (dryland) regions. In this literature review, we (1) summarize expected changes in [CO₂], climate, hydrology, and water management in dryland western North America, (2) consider likely effects of those changes on riparian ecosystems, and (3) identify critical knowledge gaps. Temperatures in the region are rising and droughts are becoming more frequent and intense. Warmer temperatures in turn are altering river hydrology: advancing the timing of spring snow melt floods, altering flood magnitudes, and reducing summer and base flows. Direct effects of increased [CO₂] and climate change on riparian ecosystems may be similar to effects in uplands, including increased heat and water stress, altered phenology and species geographic distributions, and disrupted trophic and symbiotic interactions. Indirect effects due to climate‐driven changes in streamflow, however, may exacerbate the direct effects of warming and increase the relative importance of moisture and fluvial disturbance as drivers of riparian ecosystem response to global change. Together, climate change and climate‐driven changes in streamflow are likely to reduce abundance of dominant, native, early‐successional tree species, favor herbaceous species and both drought‐tolerant and late‐successional woody species (including many introduced species), reduce habitat quality for many riparian animals, and slow litter decomposition and nutrient cycling. Climate‐driven changes in human water demand and associated water management may intensify these effects. On some regulated rivers, however, reservoir releases could be managed to protect riparian ecosystem. Immediate research priorities include determining riparian species' environmental requirements and monitoring riparian ecosystems to allow rapid detection and response to undesirable ecological change.     

Saturation response of enhanced vegetation productivity attributes to intricate interactions

Evidence for the multifaceted responses of terrestrial ecosystems has been shown by the weakening of CO₂ fertilization-induced and warming-controlled productivity gains. The intricate relationship between vegetation productivity and various environmental controls still remains elusive spatially. Here several inherent preponderances make China a natural experimental setting to investigate the interaction and relative contributions of five drivers to gross primary productivity for the period from 1982 to 2018 (i.e., elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, climate change, nutrient availability, anthropogenic land use change, and soil moisture) by coupling multiple long-term datasets. Despite a strikingly prominent enhancement of vegetation productivity in China, it exhibits similar saturation responses to the aforementioned environmental drivers (elevated CO₂, climatic factors, and soil moisture). The CO₂ fertilization-dominated network explains the long-term variations in vegetation productivity in humid regions, but its effect is clearly attenuated or even absent in arid and alpine environments controlled by climate and soil moisture. Divergence in interactions also provides distinct evidence that water availability plays an essential role in limiting the potential effects of climate change and elevated CO₂ concentrations on vegetation productivity. Unprecedented industrialization and dramatic surface changes may have breached critical thresholds of terrestrial ecosystems under the diverse natural environment and thus forced a shift from a period dominated by CO₂ fertilization to a period with nonlinear interactions. These findings suggest that future benefits in terrestrial ecosystems are likely to be counteracted by uncertainties in the complicated network, implying an increasing reliance on human societies to combat potential risks. Our results therefore highlight the need to account for the intricate interactions globally and thus incorporate them into mitigation and adaptation policies.     

Indirect vegetation–soil moisture feedback with application to Holocene North Africa climate1

Using a fully coupled climate–terrestrial ecosystem model, we demonstrate explicitly that an initial perturbation on vegetation induces not only a direct positive vegetation feedback, but also a significant indirect vegetation–soil moisture feedback. The indirect feedback is generated through either fractional cover change or soil moisture depletion. Both indirect feedback mechanisms are triggered by a vegetation perturbation, but involve subsequent effects of soil moisture and evaporation, indirectly. An increase in vegetation tends to reduce bare‐ground evaporation through either the area reduction in bare ground or the depletion of soil moisture; the reduced evaporation may then counter the initial plant transpiration, favoring a negative net vegetation feedback. Furthermore, grasses are more effective in inducing the indirect vegetation–soil feedbacks, because of their limited plant evapotranspiration and shallower roots that tend to change surface soil moisture, and, in turn, evaporation, effectively. In comparison, trees favor a direct positive vegetation feedback due to their strong plant transpiration on subsurface soil moisture as well as a lower albedo.     

季节性雪被变化对森林凋落物分解及土壤氮动态的影响

全球气候变化引发的雪被格局变化将深刻影响植被的凋落物分解、陆地生态系统的土壤养分循环等过程.森林是陆地生态系统的主体,在全球生物地球化学循环中起着不可替代的作用.本研究综述了季节性雪被变化对森林凋落物分解及土壤氮动态的影响.全球气候变化情景下季节性雪被表现出因地域而异的增加或减少的变化格局,一方面通过改变环境温湿度、凋落物质量、分解者动态等直接影响分解过程,另一方面通过改变森林群落结构、植被物候、土壤养分等间接地作用于凋落物分解.同时,季节性雪被通过影响氮富集作用、雪被下土壤温湿度、冻融循环、森林群落、雪下动物和微生物等相关因子而改变森林土壤氮循环.本领域未来应开展的研究是: 1) 全面考虑全球气候变化情景下季节性雪被格局的变异性,开展不同季节性雪被格局变化的模拟研究;2) 开展季节性雪被融雪水淋溶作用对森林凋落物分解和土壤氮动态的影响研究;3) 阐明不同生态系统和气候带中季节性雪被格局变化对森林凋落物分解过程和土壤氮动态的驱动机制研究;4) 量化季节性雪被变化对森林凋落物分解和土壤氮动态在雪被覆盖期的瞬时影响和无雪期的延续影响,为阐明和模型预测陆地生态系统生物地球化学循环对全球气候变化的响应提供理论基础和数据支持.     

Do biotic interactions modulate ecosystem functioning along stress gradients? Insights from semi-arid plant and biological soil crust communities

Climate change will exacerbate the degree of abiotic stress experienced by semi-arid ecosystems. While abiotic stress profoundly affects biotic interactions, their potential role as modulators of ecosystem responses to climate change is largely unknown. Using plants and biological soil crusts, we tested the relative importance of facilitative–competitive interactions and other community attributes (cover, species richness and species evenness) as drivers of ecosystem functioning along stress gradients in semi-arid Mediterranean ecosystems. Biotic interactions shifted from facilitation to competition along stress gradients driven by water availability and temperature. These changes were, however, dependent on the spatial scale and the community considered. We found little evidence to suggest that biotic interactions are a major direct influence upon indicators of ecosystem functioning (soil respiration, organic carbon, water-holding capacity, compaction and the activity of enzymes related to the carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles) along stress gradients. However, attributes such as cover and species richness showed a direct effect on ecosystem functioning. Our results do not agree with predictions emphasizing that the importance of plant–plant interactions will be increased under climate change in dry environments, and indicate that reductions in the cover of plant and biological soil crust communities will negatively impact ecosystems under future climatic conditions.     

Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century

Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperature and aridity because they are tightly controlled by moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alone. In addition, precipitation projections vary substantially among climate models, enhancing variation in overall trajectories for aridity. Here, we constrain this uncertainty by utilizing an ecosystem water balance model to quantify drought conditions with recognized ecological importance, and by identifying changes in ecological drought conditions that are robust among climate models, defined here as when >90% of models agree in the direction of change. Despite limited evidence for robust changes in precipitation, changes in ecological drought are robust over large portions of drylands in the United States and Canada. Our results suggest strong regional differences in long‐term drought trajectories, epitomized by chronic drought increases in southern areas, notably the Upper Gila Mountains and South‐Central Semi‐arid Prairies, and decreases in the north, particularly portions of the Temperate and West‐Central Semi‐arid Prairies. However, we also found that exposure to hot‐dry stress is increasing faster than mean annual temperature over most of these drylands, and those increases are greatest in northern areas. Robust shifts in seasonal drought are most apparent during the cool season; when soil water availability is projected to increase in northern regions and decrease in southern regions. The implications of these robust drought trajectories for ecosystems will vary geographically, and these results provide useful insights about the impact of climate change on these dryland ecosystems. More broadly, this approach of identifying robust changes in ecological drought may be useful for other assessments of climate impacts in drylands and provide a more rigorous foundation for making long‐term strategic resource management decisions.     

Dynamics of alpine plant litter decomposition in a changing climate

Climatic changes resulting from anthropogenic activities over the passed century are repeatedly reported to alter the functioning of pristine ecosystems worldwide, and especially those in cold biomes. Available literature on the process of plant leaf litter decomposition in the temperate Alpine zone is reviewed here, with emphasis on both direct and indirect effects of climate change phenomena on rates of litter decay. Weighing the impact of biotic and abiotic processes governing litter mass loss, it appears that an immediate intensification of decomposition rates due to temperature rise can be retarded by decreased soil moisture, insufficient snow cover insulation, and shrub expansion in the Alpine zone. This tentative conclusion, remains speculative unless empirically tested, but it has profound implications for understanding the biogeochemical cycling in the Alpine vegetation belt, and its potential role as a buffering mechanism to climate change.     

Droughting a megadrought: Ecological consequences of a decade of experimental drought atop aridification on the Colorado Plateau

Global dryland vegetation communities will likely change as ongoing drought conditions shift regional climates towards a more arid future. Additional aridification of drylands can impact plant and ground cover, biogeochemical cycles, and plant–soil feedbacks, yet how and when these crucial ecosystem components will respond to drought intensification requires further investigation. Using a long-term precipitation reduction experiment (35% reduction) conducted across the Colorado Plateau and spanning 10 years into a 20+ year regional megadrought, we explored how vegetation cover, soil conditions, and growing season nitrogen (N) availability are impacted by drying climate conditions. We observed large declines for all dominant plant functional types (C₃ and C₄ grasses and C₃ and C₄ shrubs) across measurement period, both in the drought treatment and control plots, likely due to ongoing regional megadrought conditions. In experimental drought plots, we observed less plant cover, less biological soil crust cover, warmer and drier soil conditions, and more soil resin-extractable N compared to the control plots. Observed increases in soil N availability were best explained by a negative correlation with plant cover regardless of treatment, suggesting that declines in vegetation N uptake may be driving increases in available soil N. However, in ecosystems experiencing long-term aridification, increased N availability may ultimately result in N losses if soil moisture is consistently too dry to support plant and microbial N immobilization and ecosystem recovery. These results show dramatic, worrisome declines in plant cover with long-term drought. Additionally, this study highlights that more plant cover losses are possible with further drought intensification and underscore that, in addition to large drought effects on aboveground communities, drying trends drive significant changes to critical soil resources such as N availability, all of which could have long-term ecosystem impacts for drylands.     

Physiology-based prognostic modeling of the influence of changes in precipitation on a keystone dryland plant species

Fluctuations in mean annual precipitation (MAP) will strongly influence the ecology of dryland ecosystems in the future, yet, because individual precipitation events drive growth and resource availability for many dryland organisms, changes in intra-annual precipitation may disproportionately influence future dryland processes. This work examines the hypothesis that intra-annual precipitation changes will drive dryland productivity to a greater extent than changes to MAP. To test this hypothesis, we created a physiology-based model to predict the effects of precipitation change on a widespread biocrust moss that regulates soil structure, water retention, and nutrient cycling in drylands. First, we used the model to examine moss productivity over the next 100 years driven by alterations in MAP by ±10, 20 and 30 %, and changes in intra-annual precipitation (event size and frequency). Productivity increased as a function of MAP, but differed among simulations where intra-annual precipitation was manipulated under constant MAP. Supporting our hypothesis, this demonstrates that, even if MAP does not change, changes in the features of individual precipitation events can strongly influence long-term performance. Second, we used the model to examine 100-year productivity based on projected dryland precipitation from published global and regional models. These simulations predicted 25–63 % reductions in productivity and increased moss mortality rates, declines that will likely alter water and nutrient cycling in dryland ecosystems. Intra-annual precipitation in model-based simulations was a stronger predictor of productivity compared to MAP, further supporting our hypothesis, and illustrating that intra-annual precipitation patterns may dominate dryland responses to altered precipitation in a future climate.     

Predominant role of water in regulating soil and microbial respiration and their responses to climate change in a semiarid grassland

Climate change can profoundly impact carbon (C) cycling of terrestrial ecosystems. A field experiment was conducted to examine responses of total soil and microbial respiration, and microbial biomass to experimental warming and increased precipitation in a semiarid temperate steppe in northern China since April 2005. We measured soil respiration twice a month over the growing seasons, soil microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), microbial respiration (MR) once a year in the middle growing season from 2005 to 2007. The results showed that interannual variations in soil respiration, MR, and microbial biomass were positively related to interannual fluctuations in precipitation. Laboratory incubation with a soil moisture gradient revealed a constraint of the temperature responses of MR by low soil moisture contents. Across the 3 years, experimental warming decreased soil moisture, and consequently caused significant reductions in total and microbial respiration, and microbial biomass, suggesting stronger negatively indirect effects through warming‐induced water stress than the positively direct effects of elevated temperature. Increased evapotranspiration under experimental warming could have reduced soil water availability below a stress threshold, thus leading to suppression of plant growth, root and microbial activities. Increased precipitation significantly stimulated total soil and microbial respiration and all other microbial parameters and the positive precipitation effects increased over time. Our results suggest that soil water availability is more important than temperature in regulating soil and microbial respiratory processes, microbial biomass and their responses to climate change in the semiarid temperate steppe. Experimental warming caused greater reductions in soil respiration than in gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). In contrast, increased precipitation stimulated GEP more than soil respiration. Our observations suggest that climate warming may cause net C losses, whereas increased precipitation may lead to net C gains in the semiarid temperate steppe. Our findings highlight that unless there is concurrent increase in precipitation, the temperate steppe in the arid and semiarid regions of northern China may act as a net C source under climate warming.     

Soil animal responses to moisture availability are largely scale,not ecosystem dependent: insight from a cross‐site study

Climate change will result in reduced soil water availability in much of the world either due to changes in precipitation or increased temperature and evapotranspiration. How communities of mites and nematodes may respond to changes in moisture availability is not well known, yet these organisms play important roles in decomposition and nutrient cycling processes. We determined how communities of these organisms respond to changes in moisture availability and whether common patterns occur along fine‐scale gradients of soil moisture within four individual ecosystem types (mesic, xeric and arid grasslands and a polar desert) located in the western United States and Antarctica, as well as across a cross‐ecosystem moisture gradient (CEMG) of all four ecosystems considered together. An elevation transect of three sampling plots was monitored within each ecosystem and soil samples were collected from these plots and from existing experimental precipitation manipulations within each ecosystem once in fall of 2009 and three times each in 2010 and 2011. Mites and nematodes were sorted to trophic groups and analyzed to determine community responses to changes in soil moisture availability. We found that while both mites and nematodes increased with available soil moisture across the CEMG, within individual ecosystems, increases in soil moisture resulted in decreases to nematode communities at all but the arid grassland ecosystem; mites showed no responses at any ecosystem. In addition, we found changes in proportional abundances of mite and nematode trophic groups as soil moisture increased within individual ecosystems, which may result in shifts within soil food webs with important consequences for ecosystem functioning. We suggest that communities of soil animals at local scales may respond predictably to changes in moisture availability regardless of ecosystem type but that additional factors, such as climate variability, vegetation composition, and soil properties may influence this relationship over larger scales.     

陆地生态系统凋落物分解对全球气候变暖的响应

陆地生态系统凋落物分解是全球碳收支的一个重要组成部分, 主要受气候、凋落物质量和土壤生物群落的综合控制。科学家们普遍认为全球气候变化将对陆地生态系统凋落物分解产生复杂而深远的影响。该文结合凋落物分解试验的常用方法——缩微试验、原位模拟实验和自然环境梯度实验, 归纳现有研究结果, 意在揭示全球气候变化对陆地生态系统凋落物分解的直接影响(温度对凋落物分解速率的影响)和间接影响(温度对凋落物质量、土壤微生物群落及植被型的影响)的普遍规律。各种研究方法都表明: 在水分条件理想的情况下, 温度升高往往能加快凋落物的分解速率; 原位模拟实验中, 凋落物分解速率因物种、增温方法和地理方位而异; 全球气候变化能改变凋落物质量, 但可能不会在短期内影响凋落物的分解速率; 凋落物质量和可分解性的种间差异远大于增温所引发的表型响应差异, 那么, 气候变化所引发的植物群落结构和物种组成的变化将对陆地生态系统凋落物分解产生更强烈的影响; 土壤生物群落如何响应全球气候变化, 进而怎样影响凋落物分解过程, 这些都还存在着极大的不确定性。     

Direct and indirect effects of climate on decomposition in native ecosystems from central Argentina

Abstract Climate affects litter decomposition directly through temperature and moisture, determining the ecosystem potential decomposition, and indirectly through its effect on plant community composition and litter quality, determining litter potential decomposition. It would be expected that both the direct and indirect effects of climate on decomposition act in the same direction along gradients of actual evapotranspiration (AET). However, studies from semiarid ecosystems challenge this idea, suggesting that the climatic conditions that favour decomposition activity, and the consequent ecosystem potential decomposition, do not necessarily lead to litter being easier to decompose. We explored the decomposition patterns of four arid to subhumid native ecosystems with different AET in central‐western Argentina and we analysed if ecosystem potential decomposition (climatic direct effect), nutrient availability and leaf litter potential decomposition (climatic indirect effect) all increased with AET. In general, the direct effect of climate (AET) on decomposition (i.e. ecosystem potential decomposition), showed a similar pattern to nutrient availability in soils (higher for xerophytic and mountain woodlands and lower for the other ecosystems), but different from the pattern of leaf litter potential decomposition. However, the range of variation in the ecosystem potential decomposition was much higher than the range of variation in litter potential decomposition, indicating that the direct effect of climate on decomposition was far stronger than the indirect effect through litter quality. Our results provide additional experimental evidence supporting the direct control of climate over decomposition, and therefore nutrient cycling. For the ecosystems considered, those with the highest AET are the ecosystems with the highest potential decomposition. But what is more interesting is that our results suggest that the indirect control of climate over decomposition through vegetation characteristics and decomposability does not follow the same trend as the direct effect of climate. This finding has important implications in the prediction of the effects of climate change on semiarid ecosystems.     

干旱半干旱草地生态系统与土壤水分关系研究进展

研究干旱半干旱草地生态系统与土壤水分关系和相互作用机理对于揭示草地生态系统稳定性及其水土关键要素的变化过程具有重要意义。从不同界面、不同尺度综述了草地生态系统对土壤水分的影响及草地生态系统的响应与适应机制,总结了草地生态系统与土壤水分关系模型研究的相关进展,并分析了气候变化对草地生态系统和土壤水分关系的影响。草地生态系统通过影响水文过程和生态过程来影响土壤水分,土壤水分在植物生长发育、形态、生理生态过程、种间关系、群落组成和结构以及草地生态系统功能等方面对草地生态系统产生影响;充分揭示草地生态系统-土壤水分相互作用机理是模型研究的关键;气候变化对草地生态系统植物与土壤水分关系具有重要影响。今后应加强以下研究:1)开展草地不同优势种和植物功能型与土壤水分关系的研究,找出能反映植物对土壤水分响应的性状指标,阈值响应点及适应机制;2)注重对不同时间和空间尺度上的转换和比较;3)加强个体、群体和生态系统尺度草地植物生长模型的研究及其与土壤-植被-大气水分传输模型的耦合;4)加强草地生态系统与土壤水分关系对气候变化响应的研究。     

黄土高原藓结皮土壤呼吸速率对降雨量变化的响应

全球气候变化加剧背景下,干旱和半干旱地区的降雨模式将进一步改变,其造成的土壤水分波动是引起土壤呼吸动态变化的重要因素,但生物结皮土壤呼吸响应降雨模式变化继而影响陆地生态系统碳源/汇功能的机制尚不明确。针对黄土高原风沙土发育的藓结皮,以自然降雨量为对照,分别进行幅度为10%、30%、50%的模拟增雨和减雨处理,并利用便携式土壤碳通量分析仪(LI-8100A)测定了模拟增减雨后的藓结皮土壤呼吸速率,对比分析了其对降雨量变化的响应及机制。结果表明：(1)整个实验周期(2018和2019)增雨和减雨分别显著提高(增幅分别为17.9%—48.2%和27.1%—54.2%)和降低了(降幅分别为1.8%—26.8%和5.2%—20.8%)土壤含水量,但对土壤温度的影响不显著;(2)增雨抑制了藓结皮土壤呼吸速率(降幅分别为7.8%—31.7%和14.7%—39.4%),且随梯度增大抑制作用越明显;减雨则取决于减雨梯度,减雨10%和30%会促进土壤呼吸速率(增幅分别为27.5%、9.6%和23.6%、9.7%)而减雨50%具有抑制作用(降幅分别为15.6%和18.5%)。不同实验周期和不同降雨处理间藓结...     

Climatic thresholds shape northern high‐latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change

Boreal forests and arctic tundra cover 33% of global land area and store an estimated 50% of total soil carbon. Because wildfire is a key driver of terrestrial carbon cycling, increasing fire activity in these ecosystems would likely have global implications. To anticipate potential spatiotemporal variability in fire‐regime shifts, we modeled the spatially explicit 30‐yr probability of fire occurrence as a function of climate and landscape features (i.e. vegetation and topography) across Alaska. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models captured the spatial distribution of fire across boreal forest and tundra ecoregions (AUC from 0.63–0.78 and Pearson correlations between predicted and observed data from 0.54–0.71), highlighting summer temperature and annual moisture availability as the most influential controls of historical fire regimes. Modeled fire–climate relationships revealed distinct thresholds to fire occurrence, with a nonlinear increase in the probability of fire above an average July temperature of 13.4°C and below an annual moisture availability (i.e. P‐PET) of approximately 150 mm. To anticipate potential fire‐regime responses to 21st‐century climate change, we informed our BRTs with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Based on these projected climatic changes alone (i.e. not accounting for potential changes in vegetation), our results suggest an increasing probability of wildfire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, but of varying magnitude across space and throughout the 21st century. Regions with historically low flammability, including tundra and the forest–tundra boundary, are particularly vulnerable to climatically induced changes in fire activity, with up to a fourfold increase in the 30‐yr probability of fire occurrence by 2100. Our results underscore the climatic potential for novel fire regimes to develop in these ecosystems, relative to the past 6000–35 000 yr, and spatial variability in the vulnerability of wildfire regimes and associated ecological processes to 21st‐century climate change.     

Effects of permafrost degradation on ecosystems

Permafrost, covering approximately 25% of the land area in the Northern Hemisphere, is one of the key components of terrestrial ecosystem in cold regions. As a product of cold climate, permafrost is extremely sensitive to climate change. Climate warming over past decades has caused degradation in permafrost widely and quickly. Permafrost degradation has the potential to significantly change soil moisture content, alter soil nutrients availability and influence on species composition. In lowland ecosystems the loss of ice-rich permafrost has caused the conversion of terrestrial ecosystem to aquatic ecosystem or wetland. In upland ecosystems permafrost thaw has resulted in replacement of hygrophilous community by xeromorphic community or shrub. Permafrost degradation resulting from climate warming may dramatically change the productivity and carbon dynamics of alpine ecosystems. This paper reviewed the effects of permafrost degradation on ecosystem structure and function. At the same time, we put forward critical questions about the effects of permafrost degradation on ecosystems on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, included: (1) carry out research about the effects of permafrost degradation on grassland ecosystem and the response of alpine ecosystem to global change; (2) construct long-term and located field observations and research system, based on which predict ecosystem dynamic in permafrost degradation; (3) pay extensive attention to the dynamic of greenhouse gas in permafrost region on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and the feedback of greenhouse gas to climate change; (4) quantitative study on the change of water-heat transport in permafrost degradation and the effects of soil moisture and heat change on vegetation growth.     

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.     

Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples

The effects of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity are well known for some high‐profile Australian marine systems, including coral bleaching and kelp forest devastation. Less well‐published are the impacts of climate change being observed in terrestrial ecosystems, although ecological models have predicted substantial changes are likely. Detecting and attributing terrestrial changes to anthropogenic factors is difficult due to the ecological importance of extreme conditions, the noisy nature of short‐term data collected with limited resources, and complexities introduced by biotic interactions. Here, we provide a suite of case studies that have considered possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change on Australian terrestrial systems. Our intention is to provide a diverse collection of stories illustrating how Australian flora and fauna are likely responding to direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic climate change. We aim to raise awareness rather than be comprehensive. We include case studies covering canopy dieback in forests, compositional shifts in vegetation, positive feedbacks between climate, vegetation and disturbance regimes, local extinctions in plants, size changes in birds, phenological shifts in reproduction and shifting biotic interactions that threaten communities and endangered species. Some of these changes are direct and clear cut, others are indirect and less clearly connected to climate change; however, all are important in providing insights into the future state of terrestrial ecosystems. We also highlight some of the management issues relevant to conserving terrestrial communities and ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic climate change.     

Green Tongues into the Arid Zone: River Floodplains Extend the Distribution of Terrestrial Bird Species

Floodplain and riparian ecosystems have cooler, wetter microclimatic conditions, higher water availability and greater vegetation biomass than adjacent terrestrial zones. Given these conditions, we investigated whether floodplain ecosystems allow terrestrial bird species to extend into more arid regions than they otherwise would be expected to occupy. We evaluated associations between aridity and the occurrence of 130 species using bird survey data from 2998 sites along the two major river corridors in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. We compared the effects of aridity on species occurrence in non-floodplain and floodplain ecosystems to test whether floodplains moderate the effect of aridity. Aridity had a negative effect on the occurrence of 58 species (45%) in non-floodplain ecosystems, especially species dependent on forest and woodland habitats. Of these 58 species, the negative effects of aridity were moderated in floodplain ecosystems for 22 (38%) species: 12 showed no association with aridity in floodplain ecosystems and the adverse effects of aridity on species occurrence were less pronounced in floodplain ecosystems compared to non-floodplain ecosystems for ten species. Greater vegetation greenness indicated that floodplain vegetation was more productive than vegetation in non-floodplain ecosystems. Floodplain ecosystems allow many terrestrial species to occur in more arid regions than they otherwise would be expected to occupy. This may be due to higher vegetation productivity, cooler microclimates or connectivity of floodplain vegetation. Although floodplain and riparian ecosystems will become increasingly important for terrestrial species persistence as climate change increases drying in many parts of the world, many are also likely to be highly affected by reduced water availability.