Forest responses to simulated elevated CO2 under alternate hypotheses of size‐ and age‐dependent mortality

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO₂) is predicted to increase growth rates of forest trees. The extent to which increased growth translates to changes in biomass is dependent on the turnover time of the carbon, and thus tree mortality rates. Size‐ or age‐dependent mortality combined with increased growth rates could result in either decreased carbon turnover from a speeding up of tree life cycles, or increased biomass from trees reaching larger sizes, respectively. However, most vegetation models currently lack any representation of size‐ or age‐dependent mortality and the effect of eCO₂ on changes in biomass and carbon turnover times is thus a major source of uncertainty in predictions of future vegetation dynamics. Using a reduced‐complexity form of the vegetation demographic model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator to simulate an idealised tropical forest, we find increases in biomass despite reductions in carbon turnover time in both size‐ and age‐dependent mortality scenarios in response to a hypothetical eCO₂‐driven 25% increase in woody net primary productivity (wNPP). Carbon turnover times decreased by 9.6% in size‐dependent mortality scenarios due to a speeding up of tree life cycles, but also by 2.0% when mortality was age‐dependent, as larger crowns led to increased light competition. Increases in aboveground biomass (AGB) were much larger when mortality was age‐dependent (24.3%) compared with size‐dependent (13.4%) as trees reached larger sizes before death. In simulations with a constant background mortality rate, carbon turnover time decreased by 2.1% and AGB increased by 24.0%, however, absolute values of AGB and carbon turnover were higher than in either size‐ or age‐dependent mortality scenario. The extent to which AGB increases and carbon turnover decreases will thus depend on the mechanisms of large tree mortality: if increased size itself results in elevated mortality rates, then this could reduce by about half the increase in AGB relative to the increase in wNPP.     

Drought's legacy: multiyear hydraulic deterioration underlies widespread aspen forest die‐off and portends increased future risk

Forest mortality constitutes a major uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon‐cycle feedbacks. Recent drought‐induced, widespread forest die‐offs highlight that climate change could accelerate forest mortality with its diverse and potentially severe consequences for the global carbon cycle, ecosystem services, and biodiversity. How trees die during drought over multiple years remains largely unknown and precludes mechanistic modeling and prediction of forest die‐off with climate change. Here, we examine the physiological basis of a recent multiyear widespread die‐off of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) across much of western North America. Using observations from both native trees while they are dying and a rainfall exclusion experiment on mature trees, we measure hydraulic performance over multiple seasons and years and assess pathways of accumulated hydraulic damage. We test whether accumulated hydraulic damage can predict the probability of tree survival over 2 years. We find that hydraulic damage persisted and increased in dying trees over multiple years and exhibited few signs of repair. This accumulated hydraulic deterioration is largely mediated by increased vulnerability to cavitation, a process known as cavitation fatigue. Furthermore, this hydraulic damage predicts the probability of interyear stem mortality. Contrary to the expectation that surviving trees have weathered severe drought, the hydraulic deterioration demonstrated here reveals that surviving regions of these forests are actually more vulnerable to future droughts due to accumulated xylem damage. As the most widespread tree species in North America, increasing vulnerability to drought in these forests has important ramifications for ecosystem stability, biodiversity, and ecosystem carbon balance. Our results provide a foundation for incorporating accumulated drought impacts into climate–vegetation models. Finally, our findings highlight the critical role of drought stress accumulation and repair of stress‐induced damage for avoiding plant mortality, presenting a dynamic and contingent framework for drought impacts on forest ecosystems.     

基于集成生物圈模型的南岭不同植被类型碳收支研究

广东南岭保存着世界上同纬度带上最完整的亚热带植被,森林资源丰富,具有巨大的固碳潜力。然而,目前该地区不同森林植被类型的碳收支年积累量特征及月动态规律尚不明确。选择广东南岭国家级自然保护区内沟谷常绿阔叶林、山地常绿阔叶林、针阔叶混交林和山顶常绿阔叶矮林4种典型森林植被为研究对象,运用集成生物圈模型(IBIS)对其2020年总初级生产力(GPP)、净初级生产力(NPP)、净生态系统生产力(NEP)和土壤异养呼吸(R_h)进行模拟,利用样地调查数据对NPP模拟结果进行验证,分析该地区不同植被类型的碳收支年积累量特征及月变化特征。研究结果表明,2020年南岭不同植被类型GPP、NPP、NEP和R_h的平均值分别为1.709、0.718、0.596和0.123 kg C m^-2 a^-1,4种植被类型中GPP最高的是沟谷常绿阔叶林,NPP、NEP最高的是山地常绿阔叶林,山顶常绿阔叶矮林的GPP、NPP和NEP均相对较低。南岭不同植被类型全年各月均表现出碳汇(NEP>0),逐月NPP和NEP均表现为双峰变化规律...     

Global change‐type drought‐induced tree mortality: vapor pressure deficit is more important than temperature per se in causing decline in tree health

Drought‐induced tree mortality is occurring across all forested continents and is expected to increase worldwide during the coming century. Regional‐scale forest die‐off influences terrestrial albedo, carbon and water budgets, and land‐surface energy partitioning. Although increased temperatures during drought are widely identified as a critical contributor to exacerbated tree mortality associated with “global‐change‐type drought”, corresponding changes in vapor pressure deficit (D) have rarely been considered explicitly and have not been disaggregated from that of temperature per se. Here, we apply a detailed mechanistic soil–plant–atmosphere model to examine the impacts of drought, increased air temperature (+2°C or +5°C), and increased vapor pressure deficit (D; +1 kPa or +2.5 kPa), singly and in combination, on net primary productivity (NPP) and transpiration and forest responses, especially soil moisture content, leaf water potential, and stomatal conductance. We show that increased D exerts a larger detrimental effect on transpiration and NPP, than increased temperature alone, with or without the imposition of a 3‐month drought. Combined with drought, the effect of increased D on NPP was substantially larger than that of drought plus increased temperature. Thus, the number of days when NPP was zero across the 2‐year simulation was 13 or 14 days in the control and increased temperature scenarios, but increased to approximately 200 days when D was increased. Drought alone increased the number of days of zero NPP to 88, but drought plus increased temperature did not increase the number of days. In contrast, drought and increased D resulted in the number of days when NPP = 0 increasing to 235 (+1 kPa) or 304 days (+2.5 kPa). We conclude that correct identification of the causes of global change‐type mortality events requires explicit consideration of the influence of D as well as its interaction with drought and temperature.     

Relationships between individual‐tree mortality and water‐balance variables indicate positive trends in water stress‐induced tree mortality across North America

Accounting for water stress‐induced tree mortality in forest productivity models remains a challenge due to uncertainty in stress tolerance of tree populations. In this study, logistic regression models were developed to assess species‐specific relationships between probability of mortality (P_m) and drought, drawing on 8.1 million observations of change in vital status (m) of individual trees across North America. Drought was defined by standardized (relative) values of soil water content (W_s,z) and reference evapotranspiration (ET_r,z) at each field plot. The models additionally tested for interactions between the water‐balance variables, aridity class of the site (AC), and estimated tree height (h). Considering drought improved model performance in 95 (80) per cent of the 64 tested species during calibration (cross‐validation). On average, sensitivity to relative drought increased with site AC (i.e. aridity). Interaction between water‐balance variables and estimated tree height indicated that drought sensitivity commonly decreased during early height development and increased during late height development, which may reflect expansion of the root system and decreasing whole‐plant, leaf‐specific hydraulic conductance, respectively. Across North America, predictions suggested that changes in the water balance caused mortality to increase from 1.1% yr^?1 in 1951 to 2.0% yr^?1 in 2014 (a net change of 0.9 ± 0.3% yr^?1). Interannual variation in mortality also increased, driven by increasingly severe droughts in 1988, 1998, 2006, 2007 and 2012. With strong confidence, this study indicates that water stress is a common cause of tree mortality. With weak‐to‐moderate confidence, this study strengthens previous claims attributing positive trends in mortality to increasing levels of water stress. This ‘learn‐as‐we‐go’ approach – defined by sampling rare drought events as they continue to intensify – will help to constrain the hydraulic limits of dominant tree species and the viability of boreal and temperate forest biomes under continued climate change.     

Traceable components of terrestrial carbon storage capacity in biogeochemical models

Biogeochemical models have been developed to account for more and more processes, making their complex structures difficult to be understood and evaluated. Here, we introduce a framework to decompose a complex land model into traceable components based on mutually independent properties of modeled biogeochemical processes. The framework traces modeled ecosystem carbon storage capacity (X_ss) to (i) a product of net primary productivity (NPP) and ecosystem residence time (τ_E). The latter τ_E can be further traced to (ii) baseline carbon residence times (τ′_E), which are usually preset in a model according to vegetation characteristics and soil types, (iii) environmental scalars (ξ), including temperature and water scalars, and (iv) environmental forcings. We applied the framework to the Australian Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model to help understand differences in modeled carbon processes among biomes and as influenced by nitrogen processes. With the climate forcings of 1990, modeled evergreen broadleaf forest had the highest NPP among the nine biomes and moderate residence times, leading to a relatively high carbon storage capacity (31.5 kg cm^?2). Deciduous needle leaf forest had the longest residence time (163.3 years) and low NPP, leading to moderate carbon storage (18.3 kg cm^?2). The longest τ_E in deciduous needle leaf forest was ascribed to its longest τ′_E (43.6 years) and small ξ (0.14 on litter/soil carbon decay rates). Incorporation of nitrogen processes into the CABLE model decreased X_ss in all biomes via reduced NPP (e.g., ?12.1% in shrub land) or decreased τ_E or both. The decreases in τ_E resulted from nitrogen‐induced changes in τ′_E (e.g., ?26.7% in C₃ grassland) through carbon allocation among plant pools and transfers from plant to litter and soil pools. Our framework can be used to facilitate data model comparisons and model intercomparisons via tracking a few traceable components for all terrestrial carbon cycle models. Nevertheless, more research is needed to develop tools to decompose NPP and transient dynamics of the modeled carbon cycle into traceable components for structural analysis of land models.     

Carbohydrate dynamics and mortality in a piñon‐juniper woodland under three future precipitation scenarios

Drought‐induced forest mortality is an increasing global problem with wide‐ranging consequences, yet mortality mechanisms remain poorly understood. Depletion of non‐structural carbohydrate (NSC) stores has been implicated as an important mechanism in drought‐induced mortality, but experimental field tests are rare. We used an ecosystem‐scale precipitation manipulation experiment to evaluate leaf and twig NSC dynamics of two co‐occurring conifers that differ in patterns of stomatal regulation of water loss and recent mortality: the relatively desiccation‐avoiding piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and the relatively desiccation‐tolerant one‐seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma). Piñon pine experienced 72% mortality after 13–25 months of experimental drought and juniper experienced 20% mortality after 32–47 months. Juniper maintained three times more NSC in the foliage than twigs, and converted NSC to glucose and fructose under drought, consistent with osmoregulation requirements to maintain higher stomatal conductance during drought than piñon. Despite these species differences, experimental drought caused decreased leaf starch content in dying trees of both species (P < 0.001). Average dry‐season leaf starch content was also a good predictor of drought‐survival time for both species (R² = 0.93). These results, along with observations of drought‐induced reductions to photosynthesis and growth, support carbon limitation as an important process during mortality of these two conifer species.     

Plant carbon allocation drives turnover of old soil organic matter in permafrost tundra soils

Carbon cycle feedbacks from permafrost ecosystems are expected to accelerate global climate change. Shifts in vegetation productivity and composition in permafrost regions could influence soil organic carbon (SOC) turnover rates via rhizosphere (root zone) priming effects (RPEs), but these processes are not currently accounted for in model predictions. We use a radiocarbon (bomb‐¹⁴C) approach to test for RPEs in two Arctic tall shrubs, alder (Alnus viridis (Chaix) DC.) and birch (Betula glandulosa Michx.), and in ericaceous heath tundra vegetation. We compare surface CO₂ efflux rates and ¹⁴C content between intact vegetation and plots in which below‐ground allocation of recent photosynthate was prevented by trenching and removal of above‐ground biomass. We show, for the first time, that recent photosynthate drives mineralization of older (>50 years old) SOC under birch shrubs and ericaceous heath tundra. By contrast, we find no evidence of RPEs in soils under alder. This is the first direct evidence from permafrost systems that vegetation influences SOC turnover through below‐ground C allocation. The vulnerability of SOC to decomposition in permafrost systems may therefore be directly linked to vegetation change, such that expansion of birch shrubs across the Arctic could increase decomposition of older SOC. Our results suggest that carbon cycle models that do not include RPEs risk underestimating the carbon cycle feedbacks associated with changing conditions in tundra regions.     

Dampening effects of long‐term experimental drought on growth and mortality rates of a Holm oak forest

Forests respond to increasing intensities and frequencies of drought by reducing growth and with higher tree mortality rates. Little is known, however, about the long‐term consequences of generally drier conditions and more frequent extreme droughts. A Holm oak forest was exposed to experimental rainfall manipulation for 13 years to study the effect of increasing drought on growth and mortality of the dominant species Quercus ilex, Phillyrea latifolia, and Arbutus unedo. The drought treatment reduced stem growth of A. unedo (?66.5%) and Q. ilex (?17.5%), whereas P. latifolia remained unaffected. Higher stem mortality rates were noticeable in Q. ilex (+42.3%), but not in the other two species. Stem growth was a function of the drought index of early spring in the three species. Stem mortality rates depended on the drought index of winter and spring for Q. ilex and in spring and summer for P. latifolia, but showed no relation to climate in A. unedo. Following a long and intense drought (2005–2006), stem growth of Q. ilex and P. latifolia increased, whereas it decreased in A. unedo. Q. ilex also enhanced its survival after this period. Furthermore, the effect of drought treatment on stem growth in Q. ilex and A. unedo was attenuated as the study progressed. These results highlight the different vulnerabilities of Mediterranean species to more frequent and intense droughts, which may lead to partial species substitution and changes in forest structure and thus in carbon uptake. The response to drought, however, changed over time. Decreased intra‐ and interspecific competition after extreme events with high mortality, together with probable morphological and physiological acclimation to drought during the study period, may, at least in the short term, buffer forests against drier conditions. The long‐term effects of drought consequently deserve more attention, because the ecosystemic responses are unlikely to be stable over time.Nontechnical summaryIn this study, we evaluate the effect of long‐term (13 years) experimental drought on growth and mortality rates of three forest Mediterranean species, and their response to the different intensities and durations of natural drought. We provide evidence for species‐specific responses to drought, what may eventually lead to a partial community shift favoring the more drought‐resistant species. However, we also report a dampening of the treatment effect on the two drought‐sensitive species, which may indicate a potential adaptation to drier conditions at the ecosystem or population level. These results are thus relevant to account for the stabilizing processes that would alter the initial response of ecosystem to drought through changes in plant physiology, morphology, and demography compensation.     

High Bird Species Diversity in Structurally Heterogeneous Farmland in Western Kenya

Tropical ecosystems are globally important for bird diversity. In many tropical regions, land‐use intensification has caused conversion of natural forests into human‐modified habitats, such as secondary forests and heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Despite previous research, the distribution of bird communities in these forest‐farmland mosaics is not well understood. To achieve a comprehensive understanding of bird diversity and community turnover in a human‐modified Kenyan landscape, we recorded bird communities at 20 sites covering the complete habitat gradient from forest (near natural forest, secondary forest) to farmland (subsistence farmland, sugarcane plantation) using point counts and distance sampling. Bird density and species richness were on average higher in farmland than in forest habitats. Within forest and farmland, bird density and species richness increased with vegetation structural diversity, i.e., were higher in near natural than in secondary forest and in subsistence farmland than in sugarcane plantations. Bird communities in forest and farmland habitats were very distinct and very few forest specialists occurred in farmland habitats. Moreover, insectivorous bird species declined in farmland habitats whereas carnivores and herbivores increased. Our study confirms that tropical farmlands can hardly accommodate forest specialist species. Contrary to most previous studies, our findings show that structurally rich tropical farmlands hold a surprisingly rich and distinct bird community that is threatened by conversion of subsistence farmland into sugarcane plantations. We conclude that conservation strategies in the tropics must go beyond rain forest protection and should integrate structurally heterogeneous agroecosystems into conservation plans that aim at maintaining the diverse bird communities of tropical forest‐farmland mosaics.     

NDVI‐based vegetation monitoring in Mau forest complex,Kenya

The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measures vegetation health and density using plant reflectance characteristics recorded by satellite imagery. Dekadal NDVI data were obtained for January 1999–December 2009 from 1‐km resolution SPOT‐VEGETATION sensor for closed woody vegetation type in four blocks of the Mau forest complex. Vegetation response to yearly seasonal variations was plotted and used to compare deviations by specific years. Subnormal vegetation conditions were recorded by the standardized vegetation index (SVI) and persistently low SVI values indicated a drought season or degraded vegetation. The general linear trend of the vegetation was plotted for the study period to identify trends towards degradation or vegetation recovery. Analysis of variance was used to compare forest blocks and shows spatial vegetation variations and also among years to identify vegetation variations with time. Rainfall data recorded for 2002–2009 in east Mau were used to confirm rainfall‐related vegetation variations block. Results show that NDVI patterns within an year follow cyclic trends with a strong dependence on rainfall seasons. The forest vegetation indicated negligible changes over the study period but effects of extended dry periods in 2000 and 2009 were evident. There were significant differences (P < 0.05) in NDVI between forest blocks. East Mau had significantly inferior vegetation that can be attributed to forest type, level of human degradation prior to the study and the lower rainfall. There were significant variations (P < 0.05) of NDVI among years but the forests showed a natural resilience to disturbance and can retain original vegetation vigour once stress is removed. The study proposes further monitoring of the forests including other vegetation types that are more vulnerable to climatic variations and anthropogenic effects.     

Prolonged experimental drought reduces plant hydraulic conductance and transpiration and increases mortality in a piñon–juniper woodland

Plant hydraulic conductance (k_s) is a critical control on whole‐plant water use and carbon uptake and, during drought, influences whether plants survive or die. To assess long‐term physiological and hydraulic responses of mature trees to water availability, we manipulated ecosystem‐scale water availability from 2007 to 2013 in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) woodland. We examined the relationship between k_s and subsequent mortality using more than 5 years of physiological observations, and the subsequent impact of reduced hydraulic function and mortality on total woody canopy transpiration (E_C) and conductance (G_C). For both species, we observed significant reductions in plant transpiration (E) and k_s under experimentally imposed drought. Conversely, supplemental water additions increased E and k_s in both species. Interestingly, both species exhibited similar declines in k_s under the imposed drought conditions, despite their differing stomatal responses and mortality patterns during drought. Reduced whole‐plant k_s also reduced carbon assimilation in both species, as leaf‐level stomatal conductance (g_s) and net photosynthesis (A_n) declined strongly with decreasing k_s. Finally, we observed that chronically low whole‐plant k_s was associated with greater canopy dieback and mortality for both piñon and juniper and that subsequent reductions in woody canopy biomass due to mortality had a significant impact on both daily and annual canopy E_C and G_C. Our data indicate that significant reductions in k_s precede drought‐related tree mortality events in this system, and the consequence is a significant reduction in canopy gas exchange and carbon fixation. Our results suggest that reductions in productivity and woody plant cover in piñon–juniper woodlands can be expected due to reduced plant hydraulic conductance and increased mortality of both piñon pine and juniper under anticipated future conditions of more frequent and persistent regional drought in the southwestern United States.     

The influence of fire on carbon distribution and net primary production of boreal Larix gmelinii forests in north-eastern China

The boreal larch forest of Eurasia is a widespread forest ecosystem and plays an important role in the carbon budget of boreal forests. However, few carbon budgets exist for these forests, and the effects of wildfire, the dominant natural disturbance in this region, on carbon budgets are poorly understood. The objective of this study was to quantify the effects of wildfire on carbon distribution and net primary production (NPP) for three major Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) forest ecosystems in Tahe, Daxing'anling, north‐eastern China: Larix gmelinii–Ledum palustre, Larix gmelinii–grass and Larix gmelinii–Rhododendron dahurica forests. The experimental design included mature forests (unburned), and lightly and heavily burned forests from the 1.3‐million‐ha 1987 wildfire. We measured carbon distribution and above‐ground NPP, and estimated fine root production from literature values. Total ecosystem carbon content for the mature forests was greatest for Larix–Ledum forests (251.4 t C ha^?1) and smallest for Larix–grass forests (123.8 t C ha^?1). Larix–Ledum forests contained the smallest vegetation carbon (13.5%), while Larix–Rhododendron contained the largest vegetation carbon (63.1%). Fires tended to transfer carbon from vegetation to detritus and soil. Total NPP did not differ significantly between the lightly burned and unburned stands, and averaged 1.58, 1.29 and 1.01 t C ha^?1 year^?1 for Larix–grass, Larix–Rhododendron and Larix–Ledum lightly burned stands, respectively. Above‐ground net primary production (ANPP) of heavily burned stands was 92–95% less than unburned and lightly burned stands. The estimated carbon loss during the 1987 fire showed substantial variability among forest types and fire severity levels. Depending upon the assumptions made about the fraction of the landscape occupied by the three larch forest types, the 1987 conflagration in north‐east China released 2.5 × 10⁷?4.9 × 10⁷ t C to the atmosphere. This study illustrates the need to distinguish between the different larch forests for developing general carbon budgets.     

Tree mortality across biomes is promoted by drought intensity,lower wood density and higher specific leaf area

Drought events are increasing globally, and reports of consequent forest mortality are widespread. However, due to a lack of a quantitative global synthesis, it is still not clear whether drought‐induced mortality rates differ among global biomes and whether functional traits influence the risk of drought‐induced mortality. To address these uncertainties, we performed a global meta‐analysis of 58 studies of drought‐induced forest mortality. Mortality rates were modelled as a function of drought, temperature, biomes, phylogenetic and functional groups and functional traits. We identified a consistent global‐scale response, where mortality increased with drought severity [log mortality (trees trees^?1 year^?1) increased 0.46 (95% CI = 0.2–0.7) with one SPEI unit drought intensity]. We found no significant differences in the magnitude of the response depending on forest biomes or between angiosperms and gymnosperms or evergreen and deciduous tree species. Functional traits explained some of the variation in drought responses between species (i.e. increased from 30 to 37% when wood density and specific leaf area were included). Tree species with denser wood and lower specific leaf area showed lower mortality responses. Our results illustrate the value of functional traits for understanding patterns of drought‐induced tree mortality and suggest that mortality could become increasingly widespread in the future.     

Modelling the vegetation of China using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3

1 We model the potential vegetation and annual net primary production (NPP) of China on a 10′ grid under the present climate using the processed‐based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3. The simulated distribution of the vegetation was in general in good agreement with the potential natural vegetation based on a numerical comparison between the two maps using the ΔV statistic (ΔV = 0.23). Predicted and measured NPP were also similar, especially in terms of biome‐averages. 2 A coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model including sulphate aerosols was used to drive a double greenhouse gas scenario for 2070–2099. Simulated vegetation maps from two different CO₂ scenarios (340 and 500 p.p.m.v.) were compared to the baseline biome map using ΔV. Climate change alone produced a large reduction in desert, alpine tundra and ice/polar desert, and a general pole‐ward shift of the boreal, temperate deciduous, warm–temperate evergreen and tropical forest belts, a decline in boreal deciduous forest and the appearance of tropical deciduous forest. The inclusion of CO₂ physiological effects led to a marked decrease in moist savannas and desert, a general decrease for grasslands and steppe, and disappearance of xeric woodland/scrub. Temperate deciduous broadleaved forest, however, shifted north to occupy nearly half the area of previously temperate mixed forest. 3 The impact of climate change and increasing CO₂ is not only on biogeography, but also on potential NPP. The NPP values for most of the biomes in the scenarios with CO₂ set at 340 p.p.m.v. and 500 p.p.m.v. are greater than those under the current climate, except for the temperate deciduous forest, temperate evergreen broadleaved forest, tropical rain forest, tropical seasonal forest, and xeric woodland/scrub biomes. Total vegetation and total carbon is simulated to increase significantly in the future climate scenario, both with and without the CO₂ direct physiological effect. 4 Our results show that the global process‐based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3 can be used successfully at a regional scale.     

Vegetation Zonation in a Neotropical Montane Forest: Environment,Disturbance and Ecotones

Gradual changes in vegetation structure and composition are expected to result from continuous environmental change with increasing elevation on mountains. Hence, the occurrence of abrupt or discrete ecotones in vegetation patterns is intriguing and may suggest key controls on community assembly in montane forests. We review tropical montane forest (TMF) zonation patterns focusing on a case study from the Cordillera Central, Hispaniola where a striking discontinuity in forest composition occurs consistently at ～2000 m elevation, with cloud forest below and monodominant pine forest above. We propose that a discontinuity in climatic factors (temperature, humidity) associated with the trade‐wind inversion (TWI) is the primary cause of this and other ecotones in TMFs that occur at a generally consistent elevation. Low humidity, fires and occasional frost above the TWI favor pine over cloud forest species. Fires in the high‐elevation pine forest have repeatedly burned down to the ecotone boundary and extinguished in the cloud forest owing to its low flammability, reinforced by high humidity, cloud immersion and epiphytic bryophyte cover. Small‐scale fire patterns along the ecotone are influenced by topography and where forest structure is impacted by hurricanes and landslides. Analogous patterns are observed worldwide in other TMFs where the TWI is important, high‐elevation fires are frequent, and the flora contains frost‐tolerant species (often of temperate lineage). The response of this and other TMFs to anthropogenic climate change is highly uncertain owing to potentially countervailing effects of different climatic phenomena, including warming temperatures and decreased frost; changes in the TWI, high‐elevation drought or cloudiness; and increased frequency or intensity of hurricanes and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation events.     

Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon

Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km² yr^?1 in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large‐scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land‐use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative ‘Sustainability’ scenario in which we envision major socio‐economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear‐cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old‐growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation‐driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km² yr^?1) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation – in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO₂ – even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old‐growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear‐cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance.     

Carbon pools in a boreal mixedwood logging chronosequence

Mixedwood forests are an ecologically and economically important forest type in central Canada, but the ecology of these forests is not as well studied as that of single-species dominated stands in the boreal forest. Northern boreal mixedwood forests have only recently been harvested and the effects of harvesting on carbon content in these stands are unknown. We quantified the carbon content and aboveground net primary production (NPP) for four different-aged mixedwood boreal forest stands in northern Manitoba, Canada. The stands included 11-, 18-, and 30-year-old stands that originated from harvesting and a 65-year-old fire-originated stand that typifies the origin of all northern boreal mixed-wood forests that are coming under management. Trees included black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.), and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.). Overstory biomass was estimated using species-specific allometric models that generally explained greater than 95% of the observed variation in biomass. Carbon content of the overstory vegetation was greatest in the 65-year-old stand and was 74% larger than the 11-year-old stand and showed a positive relationship with stand age (F_{1, 2}=122.62, P=0.0081 R²=0.99). The slope of mineral soil carbon did not differ significantly among stands (F_{1, 2}=0.39, P=0.5956, R²=0.16). Coarse woody debris carbon content followed a U-shaped pattern among stands. Aboveground NPP differed by 24% between the youngest and oldest stand. Mean annual carbon accumulation and aboveground NPP rates of the mixedwood forests were on average two times greater than nearby relatively pure stands studied during the BOREAS (BOReal Ecosystem Atmospheric Study) project. The trends in the results, along with other field studies, suggest that harvesting does not significantly affect the total soil carbon content. The results of this study suggest that scientists should be cautious about extrapolating results from BOREAS stands to a broader region until more data on other forest types and regions are available.     

Observations and modeling of aboveground tree carbon stocks and fluxes following a bark beetle outbreak in the western United States

Bark beetle epidemics result in tree mortality across millions of hectares in North America. However, few studies have quantified impacts on carbon (C) cycling. In this study, we quantified the immediate response and subsequent trajectories of stand‐level aboveground tree C stocks and fluxes using field measurements and modeling for a location in central Idaho, USA that experienced an outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We measured tree characteristics in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) plots spanning a range of structure and mortality conditions. We then initialized the forest vegetation simulator, an individual tree‐based model, with these measurements and simulated the response of aboveground production of C fluxes as well as trajectories of C stocks and fluxes in the coming decades. Mountain pine beetles killed up to 52% of the trees within plots, with more larger trees killed. C stocks in lodgepole pine were reduced by 31–83% following the outbreak, and plot‐level C fluxes decreased 28–73%. Modeled C stocks increased nearly continuously following the infestation, recovering to preoutbreak levels in 25 years or less. Simulated aboveground tree C fluxes increased following the immediate postoutbreak decrease, then subsequently declined. Substantial variability of C stocks and fluxes among plots resulted from the number and size of killed and surviving trees. Our study illustrates that bark beetle epidemics alter forest C cycling unlike stand‐replacement wildfires or clear‐cut harvests, due in part to incomplete mortality coupled with the preference by beetles for larger trees. The dependency of postoutbreak C stocks and fluxes on stand structure suggests that C budget models and studies in areas experiencing mountain pine beetle disturbances need to include size distribution of trees for the most accurate results.