Elevated atmospheric [CO2] can dramatically increase wheat yields in semi‐arid environments and buffer against heat waves

Wheat production will be impacted by increasing concentration of atmospheric CO₂ [CO₂], which is expected to rise from about 400 μmol mol^?1 in 2015 to 550 μmol mol^?1 by 2050. Changes to plant physiology and crop responses from elevated [CO₂] (e[CO₂]) are well documented for some environments, but field‐level responses in dryland Mediterranean environments with terminal drought and heat waves are scarce. The Australian Grains Free Air CO₂ Enrichment facility was established to compare wheat (Triticum aestivum) growth and yield under ambient (~370 μmol^?1 in 2007) and e[CO₂] (550 μmol^?1) in semi‐arid environments. Experiments were undertaken at two dryland sites (Horsham and Walpeup) across three years with two cultivars, two sowing times and two irrigation treatments. Mean yield stimulation due to e[CO₂] was 24% at Horsham and 53% at Walpeup, with some treatment responses greater than 70%, depending on environment. Under supplemental irrigation, e[CO₂] stimulated yields at Horsham by 37% compared to 13% under rainfed conditions, showing that water limited growth and yield response to e[CO₂]. Heat wave effects were ameliorated under e[CO₂] as shown by reductions of 31% and 54% in screenings and 10% and 12% larger kernels (Horsham and Walpeup). Greatest yield stimulations occurred in the e[CO₂] late sowing and heat stressed treatments, when supplied with more water. There were no clear differences in cultivar response due to e[CO₂]. Multiple regression showed that yield response to e[CO₂] depended on temperatures and water availability before and after anthesis. Thus, timing of temperature and water and the crop's ability to translocate carbohydrates to the grain postanthesis were all important in determining the e[CO₂] response. The large responses to e[CO₂] under dryland conditions have not been previously reported and underscore the need for field level research to provide mechanistic understanding for adapting crops to a changing climate.     

Switchgrass nitrogen response and estimated production costs on diverse sites

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has been the principal perennial herbaceous crop investigated for bioenergy production in North America given its high production potential, relatively low input requirements, and potential suitability for use on marginal lands. Few large trials have determined switchgrass yields at field scale on marginal lands, including analysis of production costs. Thus, a field‐scale study was conducted to develop realistic yield and cost estimates for diverse regions of the USA. Objectives included measuring switchgrass response to fertility treatments (0, 56, and 112 kg N ha^?1) and generating corresponding estimates of production costs for sites with diverse soil and climatic conditions. Trials occurred in Iowa, New York, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Virginia, USA. Cultivars and management practices were site specific, and field‐scale equipment was used for all management practices. Input costs were estimated using final harvest‐year (2015) prices, and equipment operation costs were estimated with the MachData model ($2015). Switchgrass yields generally were below those reported elsewhere, averaging 6.3 Mg ha^?1 across sites and treatments. Establishment stand percent ranged from 28% to 76% and was linked to initial year production. No response to N was observed at any site in the first production year. In subsequent seasons, N generally increased yields on well‐drained soils; however, responses to N were nil or negative on less well‐drained soils. Greatest percent increases in response to 112 kg N ha^?1 were 57% and 76% on well‐drained South Dakota and Virginia sites, where breakeven prices to justify N applications were over $70 and $63 Mg^?1, respectively. For some sites, typically promoted N application rates may be economically unjustified; it remains unknown whether a bioenergy industry can support the breakeven prices estimated for sites where N inputs had positive effects on switchgrass yield.     

Soil and crop response to stover removal from rainfed and irrigated corn

Excessive corn (Zea mays L.) stover removal for biofuel and other uses may adversely impact soil and crop production. We assessed the effects of stover removal at 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100% from continuous corn on water erosion, corn yield, and related soil properties during a 3‐year study under irrigated and no‐tillage management practice on a Ulysses silt loam at Colby, irrigated and strip till management practice on a Hugoton loam at Hugoton, and rainfed and no‐tillage management practice on a Woodson silt loam at Ottawa in Kansas, USA. The slope of each soil was <1%. One year after removal, complete (100%) stover removal resulted in increased losses of sediment by 0.36–0.47 Mg ha^?1 at the irrigated sites, but, at the rainfed site, removal at rates as low as 50% resulted in increased sediment loss by 0.30 Mg ha^?1 and sediment‐associated carbon (C) by 0.29 kg ha^?1. Complete stover removal reduced wet aggregate stability of the soil at the irrigated sites in the first year after removal, but, at the rainfed site, wet aggregate stability was reduced in all years. Stover removal at rates ≥ 50% resulted in reduced soil water content, increased soil temperature in summer by 3.5–6.8 °C, and reduced temperature in winter by about 0.5 °C. Soil C pool tended to decrease and crop yields tended to increase with an increase in stover removal, but 3 years after removal, differences were not significant. Overall, stover removal at rates ≥50% may enhance grain yield but may increase risks of water erosion and negatively affect soil water and temperature regimes in this region.     

Rice grain yield and quality responses to free‐air CO2 enrichment combined with soil and water warming

Rising air temperatures are projected to reduce rice yield and quality, whereas increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations ([CO₂]) can increase grain yield. For irrigated rice, ponded water is an important temperature environment, but few open‐field evaluations are available on the combined effects of temperature and [CO₂], which limits our ability to predict future rice production. We conducted free‐air CO₂ enrichment and soil and water warming experiments, for three growing seasons to determine the yield and quality response to elevated [CO₂] (+200 μmol mol^?1, E‐[CO₂]) and soil and water temperatures (+2 °C, E‐T). E‐[CO₂] significantly increased biomass and grain yield by approximately 14% averaged over 3 years, mainly because of increased panicle and spikelet density. E‐T significantly increased biomass but had no significant effect on the grain yield. E‐T decreased days from transplanting to heading by approximately 1%, but days to the maximum tiller number (MTN) stage were reduced by approximately 8%, which limited the panicle density and therefore sink capacity. On the other hand, E‐[CO₂] increased days to the MTN stage by approximately 4%, leading to a greater number of tillers. Grain appearance quality was decreased by both treatments, but E‐[CO₂] showed a much larger effect than did E‐T. The significant decrease in undamaged grains (UDG) by E‐[CO₂] was mainly the result of an increased percentage of white‐base grains (WBSG), which were negatively correlated with grain protein content. A significant decrease in grain protein content by E‐[CO₂] accounted in part for the increased WBSG. The dependence of WBSG on grain protein content, however, was different among years; the slope and intercept of the relationship were positively correlated with a heat dose above 26 °C. Year‐to‐year variation in the response of grain appearance quality demonstrated that E‐[CO₂] and rising air temperatures synergistically reduce grain appearance quality of rice.     

Miscanthus × giganteus productivity: the effects of management in different environments

Miscanthus × giganteus is a C₄ perennial grass that shows great potential as a high‐yielding biomass crop. Scant research has been published that reports M. × giganteus growth and biomass yields in different environments in the United States. This study investigated the establishment success, plant growth, and dry biomass yield of M. × giganteus during its first three seasons at four locations (Urbana, IL; Lexington, KY; Mead, NE; Adelphia, NJ) in the United States. Three nitrogen rates (0, 60, and 120 kg ha^?1) were applied at each location each year. Good survival of M. × giganteus during its first winter was observed at KY, NE, and NJ (79–100%), and poor survival at IL (25%), due to late planting and cold winter temperatures. Site soil conditions, and growing‐season precipitation and temperature had the greatest impact on dry biomass yield between season 2 (2009) and season 3 (2010). Ideal 2010 weather conditions at NE resulted in significant yield increases (P < 0.0001) of 15.6–27.4 Mg ha^?1 from 2009 to 2010. Small yield increases in KY of 17.1 Mg ha^?1 in 2009 to 19.0 Mg ha^?1 in 2010 could be attributed to excessive spring rain and hot dry conditions late in the growing season. Average M. ×giganteus biomass yields in NJ decreased from 16.9 to 9.7 Mg ha^?1 between 2009 and 2010 and were related to hot dry weather, and poor soil conditions. Season 3 yields were positively correlated with end‐of‐season plant height () and tiller density (). Nitrogen fertilization had no significant effect on plant height, tiller density, or dry biomass yield at any of the sites during 2009 or 2010.     

The potential of lentil (Lens culinaris) as a grain legume crop in the UK: an assessment based on a crop growth model

A crop growth model developed in Canterbury, New Zealand was used to assess the potential of lentil (Lens culinaris) as a grain legume crop in the UK. The model was validated using five sowing dates at Durham (54.77°N, 1.58°W) in 1999. Predicted time to flowering was within 7 days of actual time to flowering and predicted seed yields were within 9% of actual yields. Actual yields ranged from 1.40 to 1.65 t ha‐¹. Seed was of high quality. The model was used to predict rate of development and yields of spring and autumn sown lentils at eight sites along a transect from NW Scotland (Stornoway, 58.22°N, 6.32°W) to SE England (East Mailing, 51.28°N, 0.45°E) chosen to encompass important environmental gradients in the UK. In general, for a 1 May sowing with 150 or 250 mm plant available water (PAW) and a 1 October sowing with 150 mm PAW, predicted mean values over the period 1987–95 for maximum crop growth rate, maximum leaf area index, radiation intercepted, total dry matter produced and seed yield were closely positively related to monthly mean values for mean daily air temperature and increased along the transect from NW to SE UK. Time to flowering generally decreased along the transect from NW to SE UK ranging from 28 June to 9 July and from 20 May to 14 June with the May and October sowings respectively. For the 1 May sowing with 250 mm PAW, predicted mean seed yield ranged from 1.00 to 1.90 t ha‐1. For all sites, yield was very stable over the 9 yr period. For the 1 May sowing with 150 mm PAW, predicted mean seed yield ranged from 0.97–1.23 t ha‐1. Yields for the four more southerly sites were more variable at the lower PAW and, in exceptionally dry years, were substantially lower than average. For these sites, autumn sowing increased seed yields in exceptionally dry years and gave similar or greater mean seed yields to spring sowing with 250 mm PAW. For East Mailing, predicted yields for autumn sowing were on average 2.78 t ha‐1. Also, for Stornoway, because of its relatively high overwinter temperatures, the model predicted substantial increases in yield with autumn sowing. It is concluded that lentil has considerable potential as a grain legume crop in the UK.     

Closing the yield gap could reduce projected greenhouse gas emissions: a case study of maize production in China

Although the goal of doubling food demand while simultaneously reducing agricultural environmental damage has become widely accepted, the dominant agricultural paradigm still considers high yields and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity to be in conflict with one another. Here, we achieved an increase in maize yield of 70% in on‐farm experiments by closing the yield gap and evaluated the trade‐off between grain yield, nitrogen (N) fertilizer use, and GHG emissions. Based on two groups of N application experiments in six locations for 16 on‐farm site‐years, an integrated soil‐crop system (HY) approach achieved 93% of the yield potential and averaged 14.8 Mg ha^?1 maize grain yield at 15.5% moisture. This is 70% higher than current crop (CC) management. More importantly, the optimal N rate for the HY system was 250 kg N ha^?1, which is only 38% more N fertilizer input than that applied in the CC system. Both the N₂O emission intensity and GHG intensity increased exponentially as the N application rate increased, and the response curve for the CC system was always higher than that for the HY system. Although the N application rate increased by 38%, N₂O emission intensity and the GHG intensity of the HY system were reduced by 12% and 19%, respectively. These on‐farm observations indicate that closing the yield gap alongside efficient N management should therefore be prominent among a portfolio of strategies to meet food demand while reducing GHG intensity at the same time.     

Influence of soil texture and crop management on the productivity of miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.) in the Mediterranean

Biomass productivity is the main favorable trait of candidate bioenergy crops. Miscanthus × giganteus is a promising species, due to its high‐yield potential and positive traits including low nutrient requirements and potential for C sequestration in soils. However, miscanthus productivity appears to be mostly related to water availability in the soil. This is important, particularly in Mediterranean regions where the risk of summer droughts is high. To date, there have been no studies on miscanthus responses under different soil conditions, while only a few have investigated the role of different crop managements, such as irrigation and nitrogen fertilization, in the Mediterranean. Therefore, the effects of contrasting soil textures (i.e. silty‐clay‐loam vs. sandy‐loam) and alternative agricultural intensification regimes (i.e. rainfed vs. irrigated and 0, 50, 100 kg ha^?1 nitrogen fertilization), on miscanthus productivity were evaluated at three different harvest times for two consecutive years. Our results confirmed the importance of water availability in determining satisfactory yields in Mediterranean environments, and how soil and site characteristics strongly affect biomass production. We found that the aboveground dry yields varied between 5 Mg ha^?1 up to 29 Mg ha^?1. Conversely, nitrogen fertilization played only a minor role on crop productivity, and high fertilization levels were relatively inefficient. Finally, a marked decrease, of up to ?40%, in the aboveground yield occurred when the harvest time was delayed from autumn to winter. Overall, our results highlighted the importance of determining crop responses on a site‐by‐site basis, and that decisions on the optimal harvest time should be driven by the biomass end use and other long‐term considerations, such as yield stability and the maintenance of soil fertility.     

An agronomic assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from major cereal crops

Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contribute approximately 12% to total global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Cereals (rice, wheat, and maize) are the largest source of human calories, and it is estimated that world cereal production must increase by 1.3% annually to 2025 to meet growing demand. Sustainable intensification of cereal production systems will require maintaining high yields while reducing environmental costs. We conducted a meta‐analysis (57 published studies consisting of 62 study sites and 328 observations) to test the hypothesis that the global warming potential (GWP) of CH₄ and N₂O emissions from rice, wheat, and maize, when expressed per ton of grain (yield‐scaled GWP), is similar, and that the lowest value for each cereal is achieved at near optimal yields. Results show that the GWP of CH₄ and N₂O emissions from rice (3757 kg CO₂ eq ha^?1 season^?1) was higher than wheat (662 kg CO₂ eq ha^?1 season^?1) and maize (1399 kg CO₂ eq ha^?1 season^?1). The yield‐scaled GWP of rice was about four times higher (657 kg CO₂ eq Mg^?1) than wheat (166 kg CO₂ eq Mg^?1) and maize (185 kg CO₂ eq Mg^?1). Across cereals, the lowest yield‐scaled GWP values were achieved at 92% of maximal yield and were about twice as high for rice (279 kg CO₂ eq Mg^?1) than wheat (102 kg CO₂ eq Mg^?1) or maize (140 kg CO₂ eq Mg^?1), suggesting greater mitigation opportunities for rice systems. In rice, wheat and maize, 0.68%, 1.21%, and 1.06% of N applied was emitted as N₂O, respectively. In rice systems, there was no correlation between CH₄ emissions and N rate. In addition, when evaluating issues related to food security and environmental sustainability, other factors including cultural significance, the provisioning of ecosystem services, and human health and well‐being must also be considered.     

Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change

The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate‐change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2‐year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid‐Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid‐1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain‐filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade‐off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting climate factors specifically.     

Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960

Maincrop potato yields in Scotland have increased by 30–35 t ha^?1 since 1960 as a result of many changes, but has changing climate contributed anything to this? The purpose of this work was to answer this question. Daily weather data for the period 1960–2006 were analysed for five locations covering the zones of potato growing on the east coast of Scotland (between 55.213 and 57.646 N) to determine trends in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. A physiologically based potato yield model was validated using data obtained from a long‐term field trial in eastern Scotland and then employed to simulate crop development and potential yield at each of the five sites. Over the 47 years, there were significant increases in annual air and 30 cm soil temperatures (0.27 and 0.30 K decade^?1, respectively), but no significant changes in annual precipitation or in the timing of the last frost in spring and the first frost of autumn. There was no evidence of any north to south gradient of warming. Simulated emergence and canopy closure became earlier at all five sites over the period with the advance being greater in the north (3.7 and 3.6 days decade^?1, respectively) than the south (0.5 and 0.8 days decade^?1, respectively). Potential yield increased with time, generally reflecting the increased duration of the green canopy, at average rates of 2.8 t ha^?1 decade^?1 for chitted seed (sprouted prior to planting) and 2.5 t ha^?1 decade^?1 for unchitted seed. The measured warming could contribute potential yield increases of up to 13.2 t ha^?1 for chitted potato (range 7.1–19.3 t ha^?1) and 11.5 t ha^?1 for unchitted potato (range 7.1–15.5 t ha^?1) equivalent to 34–39% of the increased potential yield over the period or 23–26% of the increase in actual measured yields.     

Comparing annual and perennial crops for bioenergy production – influence on nitrate leaching and energy balance

Production of energy crops is promoted as a means to mitigate global warming by decreasing dependency on fossil energy. However, agricultural production of bioenergy can have various environmental effects depending on the crop and production system. In a field trial initiated in 2008, nitrate concentration in soil water was measured below winter wheat, grass‐clover and willow during three growing seasons. Crop water balances were modelled to estimate the amount of nitrate leached per hectare. In addition, dry matter yields and nitrogen (N) yields were measured, and N balances and energy balances were calculated. In willow, nitrate concentrations were up to approximately 20 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N during the establishment year, but declined subsequently to <5 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N, resulting in an annual N leaching loss of 18, 3 and 0.3 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 N in the first 3 years after planting. A similar trend was observed in grass‐clover where concentrations stabilized at 2–4 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N from the beginning of the second growing season, corresponding to leaching of approximately 5 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 N. In winter wheat, an annual N leaching loss of 36–68 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 was observed. For comparison, nitrate leaching was also measured in an old willow crop established in 1996 from which N leaching ranged from 6 to 27 kg ha^?1 yr^?1. Dry matter yields ranged between 5.9 and 14.8 Mg yr^?1 with lowest yield in the newly established willow and the highest yield harvested in grass‐clover. Grass‐clover gave the highest net energy yield of 244 GJ ha^?1 yr^?1, whereas old willow, winter wheat and first rotation willow gave net energy yields of 235, 180 and 105 GJ ha^?1 yr^?1. The study showed that perennial crops can provide high energy yields and significantly reduce N losses compared to annual crops.     

Miscanthus biomass production for energy in Europe and its potential contribution to decreasing fossil fuel carbon emissions

Field trials throughout Europe over the past 15 years have confirmed the potential for high biomass production from Miscanthus, a giant perennial rhizomatous grass with C₄ photosynthesis. However, policies to promote the utilization of biomass crops require yield estimates that can be scaled up to regional, national and continental areas. The only way in which this information can be reliably provided is through the use of productivity models. Here, we describe MISCANMOD, a productivity model, which was used in conjunction with a GIS to plot potential, non‐water‐limited yields across Europe. Modelled rainfed yields were also calculated using a water balance approach based on FAO estimates of plant available water in the soil. The observed yields were consistent with modelled yields at 20 trial sites across Europe. We estimate that if Miscanthus was grown on 10% of suitable land area in the European Union (EU15), 231 TWh yr^?1 of electricity could be generated, which is 9% of the gross electricity production in 2000. Using the same scenario, the total carbon mitigation could be 76 Mt C yr^?1, which is about 9% of the EU total C emissions for the 1990 Kyoto Protocol baseline levels.     

Forests growing under dry conditions have higher hydrological resilience to drought than do more humid forests

More frequent and intense droughts are projected during the next century, potentially changing the hydrological balances in many forested catchments. Although the impacts of droughts on forest functionality have been vastly studied, little attention has been given to studying the effect of droughts on forest hydrology. Here, we use the Budyko framework and two recently introduced Budyko metrics (deviation and elasticity) to study the changes in the water yields (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) of forested catchments following a climatic drought (2006–2010) in pine forests distributed along a rainfall gradient (P = 280–820 mm yr^?1) in the Eastern Mediterranean (aridity factor = 0.17–0.56). We use a satellite‐based model and meteorological information to calculate the Budyko metrics. The relative water yield ranged from 48% to 8% (from the rainfall) in humid to dry forests and was mainly associated with rainfall amount (increasing with increased rainfall amount) and bedrock type (higher on hard bedrocks). Forest elasticity was larger in forests growing under drier conditions, implying that drier forests have more predictable responses to drought, according to the Budyko framework, compared to forests growing under more humid conditions. In this context, younger forests were shown more elastic than older forests. Dynamic deviation, which is defined as the water yield departure from the Budyko curve, was positive in all forests (i.e., less‐than‐expected water yields according to Budyko's curve), increasing with drought severity, suggesting lower hydrological resistance to drought in forests suffering from larger rainfall reductions. However, the dynamic deviation significantly decreased in forests that experienced relatively cooler conditions during the drought period. Our results suggest that forests growing under permanent dry conditions might develop a range of hydrological and eco‐physiological adjustments to drought leading to higher hydrological resilience. In the context of predicted climate change, such adjustments are key factors in sustaining forested catchments in water‐limited regions.     

Response of wheat growth,grain yield and water use to elevated CO2 under a Free‐Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment and modelling in a semi‐arid environment

The response of wheat crops to elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) was measured and modelled with the Australian Grains Free‐Air CO₂ Enrichment experiment, located at Horsham, Australia. Treatments included CO₂ by water, N and temperature. The location represents a semi‐arid environment with a seasonal VPD of around 0.5 kPa. Over 3 years, the observed mean biomass at anthesis and grain yield ranged from 4200 to 10 200 kg ha^?1 and 1600 to 3900 kg ha^?1, respectively, over various sowing times and irrigation regimes. The mean observed response to daytime eCO₂ (from 365 to 550 μmol mol^?1 CO₂) was relatively consistent for biomass at stem elongation and at anthesis and LAI at anthesis and grain yield with 21%, 23%, 21% and 26%, respectively. Seasonal water use was decreased from 320 to 301 mm (P = 0.10) by eCO₂, increasing water use efficiency for biomass and yield, 36% and 31%, respectively. The performance of six models (APSIM‐Wheat, APSIM‐Nwheat, CAT‐Wheat, CROPSYST, OLEARY‐CONNOR and SALUS) in simulating crop responses to eCO₂ was similar and within or close to the experimental error for accumulated biomass, yield and water use response, despite some variations in early growth and LAI. The primary mechanism of biomass accumulation via radiation use efficiency (RUE) or transpiration efficiency (TE) was not critical to define the overall response to eCO₂. However, under irrigation, the effect of late sowing on response to eCO₂ to biomass accumulation at DC65 was substantial in the observed data (~40%), but the simulated response was smaller, ranging from 17% to 28%. Simulated response from all six models under no water or nitrogen stress showed similar response to eCO₂ under irrigation, but the differences compared to the dryland treatment were small. Further experimental work on the interactive effects of eCO₂, water and temperature is required to resolve these model discrepancies.     

Response of wheat restricted‐tillering and vigorous growth traits to variables of climate change

The response of wheat to the variables of climate change includes elevated CO₂, high temperature, and drought which vary according to the levels of each variable and genotype. Independently, elevated CO₂, high temperature, and terminal drought affect wheat biomass and grain yield, but the interactive effects of these three variables are not well known. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of elevated CO₂ when combined with high temperature and terminal drought on the high‐yielding traits of restricted‐tillering and vigorous growth. It was hypothesized that elevated CO₂ alone, rather than combined with high temperature, ameliorates the effects of terminal drought on wheat biomass and grain yield. It was also hypothesized that wheat genotypes with more sink capacity (e.g. high‐tillering capacity and leaf area) have more grain yield under combined elevated CO₂, high temperature, and terminal drought. Two pairs of sister lines with contrasting tillering and vigorous growth were grown in poly‐tunnels in a four‐factor completely randomized split‐plot design with elevated CO₂ (700 µL L^?1), high day time temperature (3 °C above ambient), and drought (induced from anthesis) in all combinations to test whether elevated CO₂ ameliorates the effects of high temperature and terminal drought on biomass accumulation and grain yield. For biomass and grain yield, only main effects for climate change variables were significant. Elevated CO₂ significantly increased grain yield by 24–35% in all four lines and terminal drought significantly reduced grain yield by 16–17% in all four lines, while high temperature (3 °C above the ambient) had no significant effect. A trade‐off between yield components limited grain yield in lines with greater sink capacity (free‐tillering lines). This response suggests that any positive response to predicted changes in climate will not overcome the limitations imposed by the trade‐off in yield components.     

Development and evaluation of ForestGrowth‐SRC a process‐based model for short rotation coppice yield and spatial supply reveals poplar uses water more efficiently than willow

Woody biomass produced from short rotation coppice (SRC) poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) is a bioenergy feedstock that can be grown widely across temperate landscapes and its use is likely to increase in future. Process‐based models are therefore required to predict current and future yield potential that are spatially resolved and can consider new genotypes and climates that will influence future yield. The development of a process‐based model for SRC poplar and willow, ForestGrowth‐SRC, is described and the ability of the model to predict SRC yield and water use efficiency (WUE) was evaluated. ForestGrowth‐SRC was parameterized from a process‐based model, ForestGrowth for high forest. The new model predicted annual above ground yield well for poplar (r² = 0.91, RMSE = 1.46 ODT ha^?1 yr^?1) and willow (r² = 0.85, RMSE = 1.53 ODT ha^?1 yr^?1), when compared with measured data from seven sites in contrasting climatic zones across the United Kingdom. Average modelled yields for poplar and willow were 10.3 and 9.0 ODT ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively, and interestingly, the model predicted a higher WUE for poplar than for willow: 9.5 and 5.5 g kg^?1 respectively. Using regional mapped climate and soil inputs, modelled and measured yields for willow compared well (r² = 0.58, RMSE = 1.27 ODT ha^?1 yr^?1), providing the first UK map of SRC yield, from a process‐based model. We suggest that the model can be used for predicting current and future SRC yields at a regional scale, highlighting important species and genotype choices with respect to water use efficiency and yield potential.     

A reassessment of global bioenergy potential in 2050

Many climate change mitigation strategies rely on strong projected growth in biomass energy, supported by literature estimating high future bioenergy potential. However, expectations to 2050 are highly divergent. Examining the most widely cited studies finds that some assumptions in these models are inconsistent with the best available evidence. By identifying literature‐supported, up‐to‐date assumptions for parameters including crop yields, land availability, and costs, we revise upper‐end estimates of potential biomass availability from dedicated energy crops. Even allowing for the conversion of virtually all ‘unused’ grassland and savannah, we find that the maximum plausible limit to sustainable energy crop production in 2050 would be 40–110 EJ yr^?1. Combined with forestry, crop residues, and wastes, the maximum limit to long‐term total biomass availability is 60–120 EJ yr^?1 in primary energy. After accounting for current trends in bioenergy allocation and conversion losses, we estimate maximum potentials of 10–20 EJ yr^?1 of biofuel, 20–40 EJ yr^?1 of electricity, and 10–30 EJ yr^?1 of heating in 2050. These findings suggest that many technical projections and aspirational goals for future bioenergy use could be difficult or impossible to achieve sustainably.     

Application of data‐limited assessment methods on black anglerfish (Lophius budegassa; Spinola, 1807) stocks in the Mediterranean Sea

A survey‐based assessment of an eastern Mediterranean data‐limited black anglerfish (Lophius budegassa; Spinola, 1807) stock was carried out to elucidate its population and exploitation trends. A catch‐based method was also applied to estimate its maximum sustainable yield (MSY). The effect on the long‐term spawning stock biomass and yield of a wide range of exploitation regimes (combinations of F and selectivity) was investigated using an age‐structured population model parameterised for Mediterranean anglerfish stocks. The analysis indicated an increasing trend of anglerfish fishing mortality (F) in the eastern Mediterranean from the mid‐1990s onwards, and that recent catches were 41% higher than the median MSY estimate. Catching Mediterranean anglerfish at least three years after they mature at an F = 0.4–1 year^?1 would ensure high yields at sustainable levels of stock depletion. Examination of the empirical exploitation regimes in five anglerfish stocks across the Mediterranean Sea illustrates their unfulfilled potential for higher sustainable yields, mainly due to overexploitation of juveniles.     

Can the agricultural AquaCrop model simulate water use and yield of a poplar short‐rotation coppice?

We calibrated and evaluated the agricultural model AquaCrop for the simulation of water use and yield of a short‐rotation coppice (SRC) plantation with poplar (Populus) in East Flanders (Belgium) during the second and the third rotation (first 2 years only). Differences in crop development and growth during the course of the rotations were taken into account during the model calibration. Overall, the AquaCrop model showed good performance for the daily simulation of soil water content (R² of 0.57–0.85), of green canopy cover (R² > 0.87), of evapotranspiration (ET; R² > 0.76), and of potential yield. The simulated, total yearly water use of the SRC ranged between 55% and 85% of the water use of a reference grass ecosystem calculated under the same environmental conditions. Crop transpiration was between 67% and 93% of total ET, with lower percentages in the first than in the second year of each rotation. The observed (dry mass) yield ranged from 6.61 to 14.76 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. A yield gap of around 30% was observed between the second and the third rotation, as well as between simulated and observed yield during the third rotation. This could possibly be explained by the expansion of the understory (weed) layer; the relative cover of understory weeds was 22% in the third year of the third rotation. The agricultural AquaCrop model simulated total water use and potential yield of the operational SRC in a reliable way. As the plantation was extensively managed, potential effects of irrigation and/or fertilization on ET and on yield were not considered in this study.