A global assessment of the vulnerability of shellfish aquaculture to climate change and ocean acidification

Human‐induced climate change and ocean acidification (CC‐OA) is changing the physical and biological processes occurring within the marine environment, with poorly understood implications for marine life. Within the aquaculture sector, molluskan culture is a relatively benign method of producing a high‐quality, healthy, and sustainable protein source for the expanding human population. We modeled the vulnerability of global bivalve mariculture to impacts of CC‐OA over the period 2020–2100, under RCP8.5. Vulnerability, assessed at the national level, was dependent on CC‐OA‐related exposure, taxon‐specific sensitivity and adaptive capacity in the sector. Exposure risk increased over time from 2020 to 2100, with ten nations predicted to experience very high exposure to CC‐OA in at least one decade during the period 2020–2100. Predicted high sensitivity in developing countries resulted, primarily, from the cultivation of species that have a narrow habitat tolerance, while in some European nations (France, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) high sensitivity was attributable to the relatively high economic value of the shellfish production sector. Predicted adaptive capacity was low in developing countries primarily due to governance issues, while in some developed countries (Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom) it was linked to limited species diversity in the sector. Developing and least developed nations (n = 15) were predicted to have the highest overall vulnerability. Across all nations, 2060 was identified as a tipping point where predicted CC‐OA will be associated with the greatest challenge to shellfish production. However, rapid declines in mollusk production are predicted to occur in the next decade for some nations, notably North Korea. Shellfish culture offers human society a low‐impact source of sustainable protein. This research highlights, on a global scale, the likely extent and nature of the CC‐OA‐related threat to shellfish culture and this sector enabling early‐stage adaption and mitigation.     

Modified future diurnal variability of the global surface ocean CO2 system

Our understanding of how increasing atmospheric CO₂ and climate change influences the marine CO₂ system and in turn ecosystems has increasingly focused on perturbations to carbonate chemistry variability. This variability can affect ocean-climate feedbacks and has been shown to influence marine ecosystems. The seasonal variability of the ocean CO₂ system has already changed, with enhanced seasonal variations in the surface ocean pCO₂ over recent decades and further amplification projected by models over the 21st century. Mesocosm studies and CO₂ vent sites indicate that diurnal variability of the CO₂ system, the amplitude of which in extreme events can exceed that of mean seasonal variability, is also likely to be altered by climate change. Here, we modified a global ocean biogeochemical model to resolve physically and biologically driven diurnal variability of the ocean CO₂ system. Forcing the model with 3-h atmospheric outputs derived from an Earth system model, we explore how surface ocean diurnal variability responds to historical changes and project how it changes under two contrasting 21st-century emission scenarios. Compared to preindustrial values, the global mean diurnal amplitude of pCO₂ increases by 4.8 μatm (+226%) in the high-emission scenario but only 1.2 μatm (+55%) in the high-mitigation scenario. The probability of extreme diurnal amplitudes of pCO₂ and [H⁺] is also affected, with 30- to 60-fold increases relative to the preindustrial under high 21st-century emissions. The main driver of heightened pCO₂ diurnal variability is the enhanced sensitivity of pCO₂ to changes in temperature as the ocean absorbs atmospheric CO₂. Our projections suggest that organisms in the future ocean will be exposed to enhanced diurnal variability in pCO₂ and [H⁺], with likely increases in the associated metabolic cost that such variability imposes.     

Defining CO2 and O2 syndromes of marine biomes in the Anthropocene

Research efforts have intensified to foresee the prospects for marine biomes under climate change and anthropogenic drivers over varying temporal and spatial scales. Parallel with these efforts is the utilization of terminology, such as ‘ocean acidification’ (OA) and ‘ocean deoxygenation’ (OD), that can foster rapid comprehension of complex processes driving carbon dioxide (CO₂) and oxygen (O₂) concentrations in the global ocean and thus, are now widely used in discussions within and beyond academia. However, common usage of the terms ‘acidification’ and ‘deoxygenation’ alone are subjective and, without adequate contextualization, have the potential to mislead inferences over drivers that may ultimately shape the future state of marine ecosystems. Here we clarify the usage of the terms OA and OD as global, climate change‐driven processes and discuss the various attributes of elevated CO₂ and reduced O₂ syndromes common to coastal ecosystems. We support the use of the existing terms ‘coastal acidification’ and ‘coastal deoxygenation’ because they help differentiate the sometimes rapid and extreme nature of CO₂ and O₂ syndromes in coastal ecosystems from the global, climate change‐driven processes of OA and OD. Given the complexity and breadth of the processes involved in altering CO₂ and O₂ concentrations across marine ecosystems, we provide a workflow to enable contextualization and clarification of the usage of existing terms and highlight the close link between these two gases across spatial and temporal scales in the ocean. These distinctions are crucial to guide effective communication of research within the scientific community and guide policymakers responsible for intervening on the drivers to secure desirable future ocean states.     

Elevated pCO2 increases sperm limitation and risk of polyspermy in the red sea urchin Strongylocentrotus franciscanus

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and the resultant acidification of surface ocean waters are predicted to have far‐reaching consequences for biological processes in the marine environment. For example, because changes in pH and pCO₂ can alter sperm performance, ocean acidification may be accompanied by reductions in the success of fertilization in marine broadcast spawners. Several studies have attempted to determine the effects of elevated pCO₂ on marine invertebrate fertilization success, albeit with differing results. These conflicts may stem from the use of inappropriate sperm–egg contact times and, in several cases, the lack of measurements over a range of sperm concentrations extending from sperm‐limited conditions to polyspermy scenarios. In our study, we used biologically realistic sperm–egg contact times and a full range of sperm concentrations to assess the effect of elevated pCO₂ on fertilization in the broadcast spawning sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus franciscanus. Fertilization experiments were carried out in seawater bubbled with CO₂ to 400 (control), 800, and 1800 ppm. Using a fertilization kinetics model, we estimate that elevated pCO₂ levels both increased sperm limitation and reduced the efficiency of fast blocks to polyspermy. Thus, elevated pCO₂ decreased the range of sperm concentrations over which high fertilization success was likely. Given the inherent difficulties in achieving high fertilization success in broadcast spawners, raised pCO₂ levels are likely to exacerbate low fertilization success in low‐density populations or in areas with high water turbulence.     

Temperature increase and fluctuation induce phytoplankton biodiversity loss – Evidence from a multi‐seasonal mesocosm experiment

Global climate change scenarios predict lake water temperatures to increase up to 4°C and extreme weather events, including heat waves and large temperature fluctuations, to occur more frequently. Such changes may result in a reorganization of the plankton community structure, causing shifts in diversity and structure toward a community dominated by fewer species that are more adapted to endure warmer and irregular temperature conditions. We designed a long‐term (8 months) mesocosm experiment to explore how ambient water temperature (C: control), induced increased temperature (T: +4°C), and temperature fluctuations (F: ±4°C relative to T) change phytoplankton phenology, taxonomical diversity, and community structure, and how such changes affected zooplankton abundance and composition. Synthesis. Our results show that T and F relative to C significantly decreased phytoplankton diversity. Moreover, there was a clear effect of the temperature treatments (T and F) on phytoplankton size structure that resulted in a significantly lower growth of large species (i.e., large Chlorophyta) compared to C. Decreased diversity and evenness in the T and F treatments pushed the community toward the dominance of only a few phytoplankton taxa (mainly Cyanobacteria and Chlorophyta) that are better adapted to endure warmer and more irregular temperature conditions. The observed shift toward Cyanobacteria dominance may affect trophic energy transfer along the aquatic food web.     

Parental effects improve escape performance of juvenile reef fish in a high-CO2 world

Rising CO₂ levels in the oceans are predicted to have serious consequences for many marine taxa. Recent studies suggest that non-genetic parental effects may reduce the impact of high CO₂ on the growth, survival and routine metabolic rate of marine fishes, but whether the parental environment mitigates behavioural and sensory impairment associated with high CO₂ remains unknown. Here, we tested the acute effects of elevated CO₂ on the escape responses of juvenile fish and whether such effects were altered by exposure of parents to increased CO₂ (transgenerational acclimation). Elevated CO₂ negatively affected the reactivity and locomotor performance of juvenile fish, but parental exposure to high CO₂ reduced the effects in some traits, indicating the potential for acclimation of behavioural impairment across generations. However, acclimation was not complete in some traits, and absent in others, suggesting that transgenerational acclimation does not completely compensate the effects of high CO₂ on escape responses.     

Meta‐analysis reveals enhanced growth of marine harmful algae from temperate regions with warming and elevated CO2 levels

Elevated pCO₂ and warming may promote algal growth and toxin production, and thereby possibly support the proliferation and toxicity of harmful algal blooms (HABs). Here, we tested whether empirical data support this hypothesis using a meta‐analytic approach and investigated the responses of growth rate and toxin content or toxicity of numerous marine and estuarine HAB species to elevated pCO₂ and warming. Most of the available data on HAB responses towards the two tested climate change variables concern dinoflagellates, as many members of this phytoplankton group are known to cause HAB outbreaks. Toxin content and toxicity did not reveal a consistent response towards both tested climate change variables, while growth rate increased consistently with elevated pCO₂. Warming also led to higher growth rates, but only for species isolated at higher latitudes. The observed gradient in temperature growth responses shows the potential for enhanced development of HABs at higher latitudes. Increases in growth rates with more CO₂ may present an additional competitive advantage for HAB species, particularly as CO₂ was not shown to enhance growth rate of other non‐HAB phytoplankton species. However, this may also be related to the difference in representation of dinoflagellate and diatom species in the respective HAB and non‐HAB phytoplankton groups. Since the proliferation of HAB species may strongly depend on their growth rates, our results warn for a greater potential of dinoflagellate HAB development in future coastal waters, particularly in temperate regions.     

The stunting effect of a high CO2 ocean on calcification and development in sea urchin larvae,a synthesis from the tropics to the poles

The stunting effect of ocean acidification on development of calcifying invertebrate larvae has emerged as a significant effect of global change. We assessed the arm growth response of sea urchin echinoplutei, here used as a proxy of larval calcification, to increased seawater acidity/pCO₂ and decreased carbonate mineral saturation in a global synthesis of data from 15 species. Phylogenetic relatedness did not influence the observed patterns. Regardless of habitat or latitude, ocean acidification impedes larval growth with a negative relationship between arm length and increased acidity/pCO₂ and decreased carbonate mineral saturation. In multiple linear regression models incorporating these highly correlated parameters, pCO₂ exerted the greatest influence on decreased arm growth in the global dataset and also in the data subsets for polar and subtidal species. Thus, reduced growth appears largely driven by organism hypercapnia. For tropical species, decreased carbonate mineral saturation was most important. No single parameter played a dominant role in arm size reduction in the temperate species. For intertidal species, the models were equivocal. Levels of acidification causing a significant (approx. 10–20+%) reduction in arm growth varied between species. In 13 species, reduction in length of arms and supporting skeletal rods was evident in larvae reared in near-future (pCO₂ 800+ µatm) conditions, whereas greater acidification (pCO₂ 1000+ µatm) reduced growth in all species. Although multi-stressor studies are few, when temperature is added to the stressor mix, near-future warming can reduce the negative effect of acidification on larval growth. Broadly speaking, responses of larvae from across world regions showed similar trends despite disparate phylogeny, environments and ecology. Larval success may be the bottleneck for species success with flow-on effects for sea urchin populations and marine ecosystems.     

Anthropogenic changes to seawater buffer capacity combined with natural reef metabolism induce extreme future coral reef CO2 conditions

Ocean acidification, via an anthropogenic increase in seawater carbon dioxide (CO₂), is potentially a major threat to coral reefs and other marine ecosystems. However, our understanding of how natural short‐term diurnal CO₂ variability in coral reefs influences longer term anthropogenic ocean acidification remains unclear. Here, we combine observed natural carbonate chemistry variability with future carbonate chemistry predictions for a coral reef flat in the Great Barrier Reef based on the RCP8.5 CO₂ emissions scenario. Rather than observing a linear increase in reef flat partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) in concert with rising atmospheric concentrations, the inclusion of in situ diurnal variability results in a highly nonlinear threefold amplification of the pCO₂ signal by the end of the century. This significant nonlinear amplification of diurnal pCO₂ variability occurs as a result of combining natural diurnal biological CO₂ metabolism with long‐term decreases in seawater buffer capacity, which occurs via increasing anthropogenic CO₂ absorption by the ocean. Under the same benthic community composition, the amplification in the variability in pCO₂ is likely to lead to exposure to mean maximum daily pCO₂ levels of ca. 2100 μatm, with corrosive conditions with respect to aragonite by end‐century at our study site. Minimum pCO₂ levels will become lower relative to the mean offshore value (ca. threefold increase in the difference between offshore and minimum reef flat pCO₂) by end‐century, leading to a further increase in the pCO₂ range that organisms are exposed to. The biological consequences of short‐term exposure to these extreme CO₂ conditions, coupled with elevated long‐term mean CO₂ conditions are currently unknown and future laboratory experiments will need to incorporate natural variability to test this. The amplification of pCO₂ that we describe here is not unique to our study location, but will occur in all shallow coastal environments where high biological productivity drives large natural variability in carbonate chemistry.     

Antarctic emerald rockcod have the capacity to compensate for warming when uncoupled from CO2‐acidification

Increases in atmospheric CO₂ levels and associated ocean changes are expected to have dramatic impacts on marine ecosystems. Although the Southern Ocean is experiencing some of the fastest rates of change, few studies have explored how Antarctic fishes may be affected by co‐occurring ocean changes, and even fewer have examined early life stages. To date, no studies have characterized potential trade‐offs in physiology and behavior in response to projected multiple climate change stressors (ocean acidification and warming) on Antarctic fishes. We exposed juvenile emerald rockcod Trematomus bernacchii to three PCO₂ treatments (~450, ~850, and ~1,200 μatm PCO₂) at two temperatures (?1 or 2°C). After 2, 7, 14, and 28 days, metrics of physiological performance including cardiorespiratory function (heart rate [f_H] and ventilation rate [f_V]), metabolic rate (), and cellular enzyme activity were measured. Behavioral responses, including scototaxis, activity, exploration, and escape response were assessed after 7 and 14 days. Elevated PCO₂ independently had little impact on either physiology or behavior in juvenile rockcod, whereas warming resulted in significant changes across acclimation time. After 14 days, f_H, f_V and significantly increased with warming, but not with elevated PCO₂. Increased physiological costs were accompanied by behavioral alterations including increased dark zone preference up to 14%, reduced activity by 12%, as well as reduced escape time suggesting potential trade‐offs in energetics. After 28 days, juvenile rockcod demonstrated a degree of temperature compensation as f_V, , and cellular metabolism significantly decreased following the peak at 14 days; however, temperature compensation was only evident in the absence of elevated PCO₂. Sustained increases in f_V and after 28 days exposure to elevated PCO₂ indicate additive (f_V) and synergistic () interactions occurred in combination with warming. Stressor‐induced energetic trade‐offs in physiology and behavior may be an important mechanism leading to vulnerability of Antarctic fishes to future ocean change.     

Intergenerational effects of CO2‐induced stream acidification in the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata)

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are driving decreases in aquatic pH. As a result, there has been a surge in the number of studies examining the impact of acidification on aquatic fauna over the past decade. Thus far, both positive and negative impacts on the growth of fish have been reported, creating a disparity in results. Food availability and single‐generation exposure have been proposed as some of the reasons for these variable results, where unrealistically high food treatments lead to fish overcoming the energetic costs associated with acclimating to decreased pH. Likewise, exposure of fish to lower pH for only one generation may not capture the likely ecological response to acidification that wild populations might experience over two or more generations. Here we compare somatic growth rates of laboratory populations of the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata) exposed to pH levels that represent the average and lowest levels observed in streams in its native range. Specifically, we test the role of maternal acclimation and resource availability on the response of freshwater fishes to acidification. Acidification had a negative impact on growth at more natural, low food treatments. With high food availability, fish whose mothers were acclimated to the acidified treatment showed no reduction in growth, compared to controls. Compensatory growth was observed in both control–acidified (maternal–natal environment) and acidified–control groups, where fish that did not experience intergenerational effects achieved the same size in response to acidification as those that did, after an initial period of stunted growth. These results suggest that future studies on the effects of shifting mean of aquatic pH on fishes should take account of intergenerational effects and compensatory growth, as otherwise effects of acidification may be overestimated.     

Abiotic drivers of interannual phytoplankton variability and a 1999–2000 regime shift in the North Sea examined by multivariate statistics

The Dutch coastal zone is a region of the North Sea with a marked interannual and long‐term abiotic and phytoplankton variability. To investigate the relationship between abiotic variability and phytoplankton composition, two routine water monitoring data sets (1991–2005) were examined. Multivariate statistics revealed two significant partitions in the data. The first consisted of interannual abiotic fluctuations that were correlated to Rhine discharge that affected the abundance of summer and autumn diatom species. The second partition was caused by a shift in the abiotic data from 1998 to 1999 that was followed by a shift in phytoplankton composition from 1999 to 2000. Important factors in the abiotic shift were decreases in suspended matter (SPM) and phosphate (DIP) concentrations, as well as in pH. The decrease in SPM was caused by a reduction in wind speed. The increase in water column daily irradiance from the decrease in SPM led to increases in the abundance of winter–spring species, notably the prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis globosa. Because wind speed is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index it was possible to correlate NAO index and P. globosa abundance. Only five abiotic variables representing interannual and long‐term variability, including Rhine discharge and NAO index, were needed to model the observed partitions in phytoplankton composition. It was concluded that interannual variability in the coastal phytoplankton composition was related to year‐to‐year changes in river discharge while the long‐term shift was caused by an alternating large‐scale meteorological phenomenon.     

Coral reefs modify their seawater carbon chemistry – implications for impacts of ocean acidification

Reviews suggest that that the biogeochemical threshold for sustained coral reef growth will be reached during this century due to ocean acidification caused by increased uptake of atmospheric CO₂. Projections of ocean acidification, however, are based on air‐sea fluxes in the open ocean, and not for shallow‐water systems such as coral reefs. Like the open ocean, reef waters are subject to the chemical forcing of increasing atmospheric pCO₂. However, for reefs with long water residence times, we illustrate that benthic carbon fluxes can drive spatial variation in pH, pCO₂ and aragonite saturation state (Ω_a) that can mask the effects of ocean acidification in some downstream habitats. We use a carbon flux model for photosynthesis, respiration, calcification and dissolution coupled with Lagrangian transport to examine how key groups of calcifiers (zooxanthellate corals) and primary producers (macroalgae) on coral reefs contribute to changes in the seawater carbonate system as a function of water residence time. Analyses based on flume data showed that the carbon fluxes of corals and macroalgae drive Ω_ain opposing directions. Areas dominated by corals elevate pCO₂ and reduce Ω_a, thereby compounding ocean acidification effects in downstream habitats, whereas algal beds draw CO₂ down and elevate Ω_a, potentially offsetting ocean acidification impacts at the local scale. Simulations for two CO₂ scenarios (600 and 900 ppm CO₂) suggested that a potential shift from coral to algal abundance under ocean acidification can lead to improved conditions for calcification in downstream habitats, depending on reef size, water residence time and circulation patterns. Although the carbon fluxes of benthic reef communities cannot significantly counter changes in carbon chemistry at the scale of oceans, they provide a significant mechanism of buffering ocean acidification impacts at the scale of habitat to reef.     

The effects of elevated temperature and dissolved ρCO2 on a marine foundation species

Understanding how climate change and other environmental stressors will affect species is a fundamental concern of modern ecology. Indeed, numerous studies have documented how climate stressors affect species distributions and population persistence. However, relatively few studies have investigated how multiple climate stressors might affect species. In this study, we investigate the impacts of how two climate change factors affect an important foundation species. Specifically, we tested how ocean acidification from dissolution of CO₂ and increased sea surface temperatures affect multiple characteristics of juvenile eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica). We found strong impacts of each stressor, but no interaction between the two. Simulated warming to mimic heat stressed summers reduced oyster growth, survival, and filtration rates. Additionally, we found that CO₂‐induced acidification reduced strength of oyster shells, which could potentially facilitate crab predation. As past studies have detected few impacts of these stressors on adult oysters, these results indicate that early life stages of calcareous marine organisms may be more susceptible to effects of ocean acidification and global warming. Overall, these data show that predicted changes in temperature and CO₂ can differentially influence direct effects on individual species, which could have important implications for the nature of their trophic interactions.     

Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide

Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO(2) to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO(2) and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO(2) responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change.     

SHORT‐ VERSUS LONG‐TERM RESPONSES TO CHANGING CO2 IN A COASTAL DINOFLAGELLATE BLOOM: IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERSPECIFIC COMPETITIVE INTERACTIONS AND COMMUNITY STRUCTURE

Increasing pCO₂ (partial pressure of CO₂) in an “acidified” ocean will affect phytoplankton community structure, but manipulation experiments with assemblages briefly acclimated to simulated future conditions may not accurately predict the long‐term evolutionary shifts that could affect inter‐specific competitive success. We assessed community structure changes in a natural mixed dinoflagellate bloom incubated at three pCO₂ levels (230, 433, and 765 ppm) in a short‐term experiment (2 weeks). The four dominant species were then isolated from each treatment into clonal cultures, and maintained at all three pCO₂ levels for approximately 1 year. Periodically (4, 8, and 12 months), these pCO₂‐conditioned clones were recombined into artificial communities, and allowed to compete at their conditioning pCO₂ level or at higher and lower levels. The dominant species in these artificial communities of CO₂‐conditioned clones differed from those in the original short‐term experiment, but individual species relative abundance trends across pCO₂ treatments were often similar. Specific growth rates showed no strong evidence for fitness increases attributable to conditioning pCO₂ level. Although pCO₂ significantly structured our experimental communities, conditioning time and biotic interactions like mixotrophy also had major roles in determining competitive outcomes. New methods of carrying out extended mixed species experiments are needed to accurately predict future long‐term phytoplankton community responses to changing pCO₂.     

A pan‐Arctic synthesis of CH4 and CO2 production from anoxic soil incubations

Permafrost thaw can alter the soil environment through changes in soil moisture, frequently resulting in soil saturation, a shift to anaerobic decomposition, and changes in the plant community. These changes, along with thawing of previously frozen organic material, can alter the form and magnitude of greenhouse gas production from permafrost ecosystems. We synthesized existing methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) production measurements from anaerobic incubations of boreal and tundra soils from the geographic permafrost region to evaluate large‐scale controls of anaerobic CO₂ and CH₄ production and compare the relative importance of landscape‐level factors (e.g., vegetation type and landscape position), soil properties (e.g., pH, depth, and soil type), and soil environmental conditions (e.g., temperature and relative water table position). We found fivefold higher maximum CH₄ production per gram soil carbon from organic soils than mineral soils. Maximum CH₄ production from soils in the active layer (ground that thaws and refreezes annually) was nearly four times that of permafrost per gram soil carbon, and CH₄ production per gram soil carbon was two times greater from sites without permafrost than sites with permafrost. Maximum CH₄ and median anaerobic CO₂ production decreased with depth, while CO₂:CH₄ production increased with depth. Maximum CH₄ production was highest in soils with herbaceous vegetation and soils that were either consistently or periodically inundated. This synthesis identifies the need to consider biome, landscape position, and vascular/moss vegetation types when modeling CH₄ production in permafrost ecosystems and suggests the need for longer‐term anaerobic incubations to fully capture CH₄ dynamics. Our results demonstrate that as climate warms in arctic and boreal regions, rates of anaerobic CO₂ and CH₄ production will increase, not only as a result of increased temperature, but also from shifts in vegetation and increased ground saturation that will accompany permafrost thaw.