Development of personal pollen information—the next generation of pollen information and a step forward for hay fever sufferers

Pollen allergies affect a large part of the European population and are considered likely to increase. User feedback indicates that there are difficulties in providing proper information and valid forecasts using traditional methods of aerobiology due to a variety of factors. Allergen content, pollen loads, and pollen allergy symptoms vary per region and year. The first steps in challenging such issues have already been undertaken. A personalized pollen-related symptom forecast is thought to be a possible answer. However, attempts made thus far have not led to an improvement in daily forecasting procedures. This study describes a model that was launched in 2013 in Austria to provide the first available personal pollen information. This system includes innovative forecast models using bi-hourly pollen data, traditional pollen forecasts based on historical data, meteorological data, and recent symptom data from the patient’s hayfever diary. Furthermore, it calculates the personal symptom load in real time, in particular, the entries of the previous 5 days, to classify users. The personal pollen information was made available in Austria on the Austrian pollen information website and via a mobile pollen application, described herein for the first time. It is supposed that the inclusion of personal symptoms will lead to major improvements in pollen information concerning hay fever sufferers.     

Airborne pollen characteristics and the influence of temperature and precipitation in Raleigh,North Carolina,USA (1999–2012)

The incidence of allergic diseases has been increasing in recent decades, in part due to increased exposure to aeroallergens, particularly pollen. Allergic diseases have a major burden on the health care system, with annual costs in the USA alone exceeding $30 billion. There is evidence that the production of aeroallergens, including pollen, is increasing in response to environmental and climatic change, which has important implications for the treatment of allergy sufferers. In this study, pollen data from a Rotorod sampler in Raleigh, North Carolina, was used to characterize and examine trends in the atmospheric pollen seasons for trees, grasses, and weeds over the period 1999–2012. The influence of mean monthly antecedent and concurrent temperature and precipitation on the timing, duration, and severity of the pollen seasons was assessed using Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficients and multiple linear regression models. An increasing trend was noted in seasonal tree pollen concentrations, while seasonal and peak weed pollen concentrations declined over time. The atmospheric pollen seasons for grasses and weeds trended toward earlier start dates and longer durations, while the tree pollen season trended toward an earlier end date. Peak daily tree pollen concentrations were strongly associated with antecedent temperature and precipitation, while peak daily grass pollen concentrations were strongly associated with concurrent precipitation. The strongest relationships between climate and weed pollen were associated with the timing and duration of the pollen season, with drier antecedent and warmer concurrent conditions tied to longer weed pollen seasons.     

The patient’s hay-fever diary: three years of results from Germany

The patient’s hay-fever diary (PHD) is a newly developed, internet-based tool for self-documentation of pollen-induced symptoms (eyes, nose and airways), general well-being and medication use. In Germany, more than 1,600 users made over 60,500 reports in 3 years (2009–2011). An analysis of these reports reveal that the nose symptom “sneezing” is the most commonly reported (3/10 of reports), followed by eye symptom “itching” and nose “blocked”. In addition, medication use follows a similar pattern every year, with tablets being the most commonly used medication type (up to 60 % of the reports made in the years 2009 and 2011). Temporal variations in overall symptoms and organ-specific symptom scores are found to be associated with atmospheric concentrations of birch and grass pollen. Data from the PHD can be analysed with the aid of various mathematical methods and may provide information about symptoms and their severity for pollen-allergic sufferers. They may also be valuable for clinical studies in immunotherapy with pollen extracts.     

Google Trends reflect allergic rhinitis symptoms related to birch and grass pollen seasons

Google Trends (GT) describes the variation of the relevant interest of internet searches toward medical conditions and related symptoms. Allergic rhinitis symptom levels result from the intensity of exposure to aeroallergens in combination with relevant medication use. We analyze data from Germany to examine the relationship between hay fever-related Google search terms, symptom levels, medication use, and pollen count levels. For doing so, we also employ the new definitions on pollen season and peak pollen period start and end as proposed by the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology in a recently published position paper. We extract GT data for a number of search terms related to allergic rhinitis for Germany. We use total nasal symptom and mediation scores as reported by patients via a patient hay fever diary in the Berlin and Brandenburg areas in Germany for 3 years (2014–2016), accompanied by pollen data. Then a Pearson and Spearman correlation analysis is performed between symptom data and GT data. A graphical analysis is conducted, and the identification of pollen season and peak pollen periods is done based on the EAACI criteria. The analysis reveals that GT data are highly correlated with symptom levels and follow peak pollen period start–end, concerning grass and birch pollen-induced allergic rhinitis symptoms. GT data can be used as a proxy for the identification of the onset and variation of nasal symptom and medication score for allergic rhinitis sufferers.     

Spatial distribution of pollen-induced symptoms within a large metropolitan area—Berlin,Germany

Large spatial differences in the distribution of three allergologically relevant pollen types for Central Europe—birch, grass, and mugwort—are revealed within a large metropolitan area—Berlin, Germany. The purpose of the study is an examination of the hypothesis that these different pollen exposure conditions can cause different degrees of pollen-induced symptoms within the city. Pollen data from 14 gravimetric traps and one volumetric trap in Berlin and anonymously reported pollen-induced symptom data from the online-based self-documentation tool “Patient’s Hayfever Diary” (PHD) are used for the analysis of temporal and spatial variations of the severity of the overall total symptoms. Geographically localised symptom data are linked to the nearest pollen trap. Statistical analysis is performed using Kendall’s Tau-b. Higher amounts of monitored birch and grass pollen in the peripheral areas of Berlin induce stronger symptoms in PHD users located within suburbs than those located in the city centre. There is no statistical relationship between the varying presence of mugwort pollen in the air and the severity of symptoms. Spatial differences in the pollen-induced symptom severity within a large city coinciding with spatial differences in birch and grass pollen depositions are shown for the first time. Therefore, pollen data from a single trap may not provide an appropriate explanation for differences in pollen-induced symptoms across the city. More detailed and reliable information about the exposure to allergenic pollen can be addressed by installing further traps in order to improve the knowledge about pollen exposure within cities.     

Interannual variability of pollen productivity and transport in mid-North America from 1997 to 2009

Understanding the causes of interannual variability in atmospheric pollen concentration is an important but elusive goal for public health and environmental change. We analyzed long-term daily records of pollen counts from urban Kansas City, Missouri, USA collected from 1997 to 2009 for three pollen groups: Ambrosia, Poaceae, and a third group which is mostly composed of arboreal pollen types. The annual pollen index varied from 8,368 to 80,822 over the thirteen-year period. Although Ambrosia pollen is often thought to be associated with droughts and disturbance, years with high Ambrosia pollen were associated with high summer precipitation to the south of Kansas City. Years with high Poaceae pollen were associated with high spring precipitation to the south of the city. In support of the southern influence to Kansas City pollen, Ambrosia and Poaceae pollen mostly arrived on southern winds. In contrast to the other two pollen groups, the arboreal pollen was most associated with growing season precipitation to the east of Kansas City, although it was still highest on days with southern winds. Based on the correlations with climate, the severity of an upcoming allergy season may be predicted with early-season precipitation data, while short-term severity can be forecast from local weather patterns.     

Effect of meteorological parameters on Poaceae pollen in the atmosphere of Tetouan (NW Morocco)

Poaceae pollen is one of the most prevalent aeroallergens causing allergenic reactions. The aim of this study was to characterise the grass pollen season in Tetouan during the years 2008–2010, to analyse the effect of some meteorological parameters on the incidence of the airborne Poaceae pollen, and to establish forecasting variables for daily pollen concentrations. Aerobiological sampling was undertaken over three seasons using the volumetric method. The pollen season started in April and showed the highest pollen index in May and June, when the maximum temperature ranged from 23 to 27 °C, respectively. The annual pollen score recorded varied from year to year between 2,588 and 5,404. The main pollen season lasted 114–173 days, with peak days occurring mainly in May; the highest concentration reached 308 pollen grains/m³. Air temperature was the most important meteorological parameter and correlated positively to daily pollen concentration increase. An increase in relative humidity and precipitation was usually related to a decrease in airborne pollen content. External validation of the models performed using data from 2011 showed that Poaceae pollen concentration can be highly predicted (64.2–78.6 %) from the maximum temperature, its mean concentration for the same day in other years, and its concentration recorded on the previous day. Sensitive patients suffering allergy to Poaceae pollen are at moderate to highest risk of manifesting allergic symptoms to grass pollen over 33–42 days. The results obtained provide new information on the quantitative contribution of the Poaceae pollen to the airborne pollen of Tetouan and on its temporal distribution. Airborne pollen can be surveyed and forecast in order to warn the atopic population.     

A 2-year aeropalynological survey of allergenic pollen in the atmosphere of Kastamonu, Turkey

Knowledge of airborne pollen concentrations and the weather conditions influencing them is important for air quality forecasters, allergists and allergy sufferers. For this reason, a 7-day recording volumetric spore trap of the Hirst design was used for pollen monitoring between January 2006 and December 2007 in Kastamonu, Turkey. A total of 293,427 pollen grains belonging to 51 taxa were recorded during the study period. In the 2?years of study, the period March–August was identified as the main pollination season for Kastamonu. The highest monthly pollen counts were observed in May in both years. Six taxa made up 86.5% of the total amount of pollen recorded in the atmosphere of Kastamonu. These were as follows: Pinaceae (42.9%), Cupressaceae (20.6%), Poaceae (9.7%), Quercus (5.5%) Betula (5.3%) and Carpinus (2.6%). Four of these are considered to be highly allergenic (Betula, Carpinus, Cupressaceae and Poaceae). There were also a greater percentage of highly allergenic taxa found within the city, including Betula pendula that is not part of the local flora. This shows that through urban planting, the public and municipalities can unconsciously create a high risk for allergy sufferers. Daily average pollen counts from the six most frequently recorded pollen types were entered into Spearman’s correlation analysis with meteorological data. Mean daily temperature, relative humidity, daily rainfall and wind speed were found to significantly (p?<?0.05) affect atmospheric pollen concentrations, but the relationships between pollen concentrations and meteorological variables can vary and so there is a need for more local studies of this nature.     

Allergic symptoms caused by long-distance transported birch pollen

Birch pollen allergy is very common in northern Sweden, and the local flowering season never starts before the middle part of May. In the last week of April 1989 patients with birch pollen allergy developed typical symptoms requiring treatment. This pattern was confirmed in a group of patients who registered their symptoms in diaries, while contemporaneous pollen measurements demonstrated high amounts of birch pollen in the air. At that time in the northern part of Sweden, however, no birches were flowering. Meteorological data indicated that strong winds from the south-east during the period transported birch pollen from the Baltic states. Similar weather conditions in 1982, 1984 and in 1990 have also resulted in high amounts of birch pollen in the air long before the local flowering season. It is concluded that long distance transport of pollen may result in clinically significant allergy problems before, and even after the normal local season.     

Model for forecasting Olea europaea L. airborne pollen in South-West Andalusia, Spain

Data on predicted average and maximum airborne pollen concentrations and the dates on which these maximum values are expected are of undoubted value to allergists and allergy sufferers, as well as to agronomists. This paper reports on the development of predictive models for calculating total annual pollen output, on the basis of pollen and weather data compiled over the last 19 years (1982–2000) for Córdoba (Spain). Models were tested in order to predict the 2000 pollen season; in addition, and in view of the heavy rainfall recorded in spring 2000, the 1982–1998 data set was used to test the model for 1999. The results of the multiple regression analysis show that the variables exerting the greatest influence on the pollen index were rainfall in March and temperatures over the months prior to the flowering period. For prediction of maximum values and dates on which these values might be expected, the start of the pollen season was used as an additional independent variable. Temperature proved the best variable for this prediction. Results improved when the 5-day moving average was taken into account. Testing of the predictive model for 1999 and 2000 yielded fairly similar results. In both cases, the difference between expected and observed pollen data was no greater than 10%. However, significant differences were recorded between forecast and expected maximum and minimum values, owing to the influence of rainfall during the flowering period. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 26 February 2001 / Accepted: 28 February 2001     

Biometeorological and autoregressive indices for predicting olive pollen intensity

This paper reports on modelling to predict airborne olive pollen season severity, expressed as a pollen index (PI), in Córdoba province (southern Spain) several weeks prior to the pollen season start. Using a 29-year database (1982–2010), a multivariate regression model based on five indices—the index-based model—was built to enhance the efficacy of prediction models. Four of the indices used were biometeorological indices: thermal index, pre-flowering hydric index, dormancy hydric index and summer index; the fifth was an autoregressive cyclicity index based on pollen data from previous years. The extreme weather events characteristic of the Mediterranean climate were also taken into account by applying different adjustment criteria. The results obtained with this model were compared with those yielded by a traditional meteorological-based model built using multivariate regression analysis of simple meteorological-related variables. The performance of the models (confidence intervals, significance levels and standard errors) was compared, and they were also validated using the bootstrap method. The index-based model built on biometeorological and cyclicity indices was found to perform better for olive pollen forecasting purposes than the traditional meteorological-based model.     

The duration and severity of the allergenic pollen season in Istanbul,and the role of meteorological factors

Aerobiologia - Information on the allergenic pollen season provides insight on the state of the environment of a region and facilitates allergy symptom management. We present a retrospective...     

The Belgian Pollen Phone Service: Immediate and direct information to hay fever sufferers

The Belgian Pollen Phone Service gives continuous information about the pollen content of the air. A comparison of the number of incoming phone calls with the pollen content of the air revealed a surprisingly good correlation. This article underlines the success of this service. It confirms the high susceptibility of hay fever sufferers at the beginning of the season. It also highlights that pollinosis is not always limited to birch and grass pollen allergy and it demonstrates the necessity for the continuous determination of the pollen content of the air. Allergies to mugwort pollen seem to be less important. The Pollen Phone Service is a prompt way to provide allergic subjects with recent pollen information.     

The Belgian Pollen Phone Service: immediate and direct information to hay fever sufferers

The Belgian Pollen Phone Service gives continuous information about the pollen content of the air. A comparison of the number of incoming phone calls with the pollen content of the air revealed a surprisingly good correlation. This article underlines the success of this service. It confirms the high susceptibility of hay fever sufferers at the beginning of the season. It also highlights that pollinosis is not always limited to birch and grass pollen allergy and it demonstrates the necessity for the continuous determination of the pollen content of the air. Allergies to mugwort pollen seem to be less important. The Pollen Phone Service is a prompt way to provide allergic subjects with recent pollen information.     

Designing new automatically generated pollen calendars for the public in Switzerland

Pollen calendars are one of the most comprehensible means to inform allergy sufferers or medical professionals about the mean presence of allergenic pollen during the course of the year. They have been produced with a variety of methods and were distributed with great success since the beginning of pollen monitoring. Current technologies, longer data series and changing user demands allow to develop new calculation methods. For designing the new pollen calendars of Switzerland, the following requirements were formulated: The pollen load levels in the calendars should correspond to the levels used in pollen forecasts. A pollen load level in the calendar should show the time window in which it potentially occurs. Further requirements were an automatic generation of the calendars, a regular update and the possibility to provide calendars for single stations, regions or specific pollen species. The data analysis is based on mean daily pollen concentrations of the last 20 years of all 14 pollen-monitoring stations in Switzerland for the 15 pollen types most relevant for allergies. For each day of the year, the 90% quantile of the daily pollen concentrations is determined in a moving 9-day time window over 20 years of data. The calculated concentrations are converted afterward into a pollen load level. The new method is flexible because various parameters can be selected freely: the reference period, the size of the moving time window, the quantile value and the thresholds for pollen load levels. Adjusting these parameters, also pollen calendars for fewer than 20 years can be calculated. However, a sensitivity analysis showed that a reference period of 20 years provides much more stable pollen calendars than shorter reference periods.     

Correlation between airborne pollen incidence,skin prick tests and serum immunoglobulins in allergic people in cracowm,poland

Fifty patients suffering from pollen allergy were observed during the period 1988–1989. At the same airborne pollen content was examined using volumetric and gravimetric sampling methods.

The mean daily symptom scores and percentages of patients with symptoms of allergy during the pollen season correlated positively with the airborne pollen content of wild Gramincae and Cerealia (Secale cereale).

Skin prick test results and elevated levels of specific serum IgE confirmed the presence of allergy to these taxa in the patients observed. Allergy to tree pollen and herb pollen was confirmed in only 3 cases.

Elevated levels of specific serum IgE for Dactylis glomerata, Pltleum pratense, and Secale cereale appeared in 70–80% of patients. Specific serum IgE levels correlated more with skin prick reactions (especially with late phase reactions) than with total serum IgE levels. Airborne pollen concentrations evaluated by volumetric sampling (Burckard trap) ad by a gravimetric method differ in so many details, that their results are not comparable. However, both methods provide largely similar information about the presence of airborne pollen presence.     

Airborne olive pollen in Vigo (Northwest Spain): a survey to forecast the onset and daily concentrations of the pollen season

Temperature is one of the main factors affecting the start of flowering in tree species that flower at the beginning of spring. Knowledge of the chilling and heat needs required by plants to overcome the period of dormancy enables us to determine the onset of pollination, which is of great importance to allergy sufferers. This study attempted to obtain behaviour models with a view to determining both the onset of the olive pollen season and daily pollen concentrations during the pollination period in Vigo. Monitoring was carried out using a Lanzoni VPPS 2000 pollen trap, from 1995 to 2002 inclusive.

Olea pollen is mainly detected during the spring, principally in May. Given the geographical location, the very limited presence of this tree in the study area and the low Olea pollen concentrations detected in northern Spain as a whole, the values recorded here in the atmosphere of Vigo are particularly striking. A strong correlation was observed between total quantity olive pollen collected over the season and rainfall recorded during the second fortnight in February. According to the proposed model, an average of 680 Chilling Hours (CH) are necessary to overcome the chill period and break the state of bud dormancy, and 481 Growth Degree Days (GDD) °C are needed to induce flowering. Models for predicting daily mean pollen concentrations combine temperature and the previous days' pollen concentrations as predictor variables to provide a high level of prediction.     

Predicting the grass pollen count from meteorological data with regard to estimating the severity of hayfever symptoms in Melbourne (Australia)

In Melbourne, Australia, grass pollen is the predominant cause of hayfever in late spring and summer. The grass pollen season has been monitored in Melbourne, using a Burkard spore trap, for 13 years (1975–1981, 1985 and 1991–1997). Total counts for grass pollen were highly variable from one season to the next (approximately 1000 to >8000 grains/m³). The daily grass pollen counts also showed a high variability (0 to approximately 400 grains/m³). In this study, the grass pollen counts of the 13 years (12 grass pollen seasons, extending from October to January) have been compared with meteorological data in order to identify the conditions that can determine the daily amounts of grass pollen in the air. It was found that the seasonal total of grass pollen was directly correlated with the rainfall sum of the preceding 12 months (1 September–31 August): seasonal total of grass pollen (counts/m³)=18.161 × rainfall sum of the preceding 12 months (mm) −8541.5 (r _s=0.74,P<0.005,n=12). The daily amounts of grass pollen in the air were positively correlated with the corresponding daily average ambient temperatures (P<0.001). The daily amount of grass pollen which was to be expected with a certain daily average temperature was linked to the seasonal total of grass pollen: in years with high total grass pollen counts, a lower daily average temperature was required for a high daily pollen count than in years with low total grass pollen counts. As the concentration of airborne grass pollen determines the severity of hayfever in sensitive patients, an estimation of daily grass pollen counts can provide an indication of potential pollinosis symptoms. We compared daily grass pollen counts with the reported symptomatic responses of hayfever sufferers in November 1985 and found that hayfever symptoms were significantly correlated to the grass pollen counts (P<0.001 for nasal,P<0.005 for eye symptoms). Thus, a combination of meteorological information (i.e. rainfall and temperature) allows for an estimation of the potential daily pollinosis symptoms during the grass pollen season. Here we propose a symptom estimation chart, allowing a quick prediction of eye and nasal symptoms that are likely to occur as a result of variations in meteorological conditions, thus enabling both physicians and patients to take appropriate avoidance measures or therapy.     

Airborne pollen in Nuuk, Greenland, and the importance of meteorological parameters

To describe the season of airborne pollen ofbirch and grass in the city of Nuuk, Greenland,pollen concentrations were measured dailythroughout the pollen seasons in 1997 to 1999.The study was part of a large epidemiologicalcross-sectional study of allergy and riskfactors for allergy in Greenlander Inuit livingin Greenland and Denmark.For the three years the mean birch pollenseason started around 8 June, lasted in average16 days and the mean annual total pollen countwas 46. The highest daily concentration of 23birch pollen pr. m³ was measured in 1999.The mean grass pollen season began around 22July, it lasted 53 days and the mean annualtotal pollen count was 81. The highest grasspollen number registered for one day reached 12in 1998. Several other types of pollen werealso measured, generally in smallconcentrations, but for Cyperaceae and Alderthe mean annual total pollen count were 43 and19 respectively. Though the measuredconcentrations are small, it is concluded thatairborne pollen occur in the arctic climate ofNuuk in potentially clinically relevantamounts.For the three years large variations wereobserved for the start, duration and amountsfor both birch and grass. Models forestimation of the starting date based onGrowing Degree Hours (GDHs) predicted the startof the birch and grass pollen with greataccuracy – within one day. Analysis of themeteorological conditions show that themeasured pollen in general originated from thearea around Nuuk, but there are indicationsthat pollen might have been long-transportedfrom Canada.     

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on grass pollen counts in Europe

Relationships between temporal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and grass pollen counts at 13 sites in Europe, ranging from Córdoba in the south-west and Turku in the north-east, were studied in order to determine spatial differences in the amount of influence exerted by the NAO on the timing and magnitude of grass pollen seasons. There were a number of significant (P < 0.05) relationships between the NAO and start dates of the grass pollen season at the 13 pollen-monitoring sites. The strongest associations were generally recorded near to the Atlantic coast. Several significant correlations also existed between winter averages of the NAO and grass pollen season severity. Traditional methods for predicting the start or magnitude of grass pollen seasons have centred on the use of local meteorological observations, but this study has shown the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability like the NAO.