Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest

Forest fires are a significant and natural element of the circumboreal forest. Fire activity is strongly linked to weather, and increased fire activity due to climate change is anticipated or arguably has already occurred. Recent studies suggest a doubling of area burned along with a 50% increase in fire occurrence in parts of the circumboreal by the end of this century. Fire management agencies' ability to cope with these increases in fire activity is limited, as these organizations operate with a narrow margin between success and failure; a disproportionate number of fires may escape initial attack under a warmer climate, resulting in an increase in area burned that will be much greater than the corresponding increase in fire weather severity. There may be only a decade or two before increased fire activity means fire management agencies cannot maintain their current levels of effectiveness.     

Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1°× 1° fire history reconstruction for the 20th century

A yearly global fire history is a prerequisite for quantifying the contribution of previous fires to the past and present global carbon budget. Vegetation fires can have both direct (combustion) and long‐term indirect effects on the carbon cycle. Every fire influences the ecosystem carbon budget for many years, as a consequence of internal reorganization, decomposition of dead biomass, and regrowth. We used a two‐step process to estimate these effects. First we synthesized the available data available for the 1980s or 1990s to produce a global fire map. For regions with no data, we developed estimates based on vegetation type and history. Second, we then worked backwards to reconstruct the fire history. This reconstruction was based on published data when available. Where it was not, we extrapolated from land use practices, qualitative reports and local studies, such as tree ring analysis. The resulting product is intended as a first approximation for questions about consequences of historical changes in fire for the global carbon budget. We estimate that an average of 608 Mha yr^?1 burned (not including agricultural fires) at the end of the 20th century. 86% of this occurred in tropical savannas. Fires in forests with higher carbon stocks consumed 70.7 Mha yr^?1 at the beginning of the century, mostly in the boreal and temperate forests of the Northern Hemisphere. This decreased to 15.2 Mha yr^?1 in the 1960s as a consequence of fire suppression policies and the development of efficient fire fighting equipment. Since then, fires in temperate and boreal forests have decreased to 11.2 Mha yr^?1. At the same time, burned areas increased exponentially in tropical forests, reaching 54 Mha yr^?1 in the 1990s, reflecting the use of fire in deforestation for expansion of agriculture. There is some evidence for an increase in area burned in temperate and boreal forests in the closing years of the 20th century.     

Spatially explicit fire-climate history of the boreal forest-tundra (Eastern Canada) over the last 2000 years

Across the boreal forest, fire is the main disturbance factor and driver of ecosystem changes. In this study, we reconstructed a long-term, spatially explicit fire history of a forest-tundra region in northeastern Canada. We hypothesized that current occupation of similar topographic and edaphic sites by tundra and forest was the consequence of cumulative regression with time of forest cover due to compounding fire and climate disturbances. All fires were mapped and dated per 100 year intervals over the last 2,000 years using several fire dating techniques. Past fire occurrences and post-fire regeneration at the northern forest limit indicate 70% reduction of forest cover since 1800 yr BP and nearly complete cessation of forest regeneration since 900 yr BP. Regression of forest cover was particularly important between 1500s-1700s and possibly since 900 yr BP. Although fire frequency was very low over the last 100 years, each fire event was followed by drastic removal of spruce cover. Contrary to widespread belief of northward boreal forest expansion due to recent warming, lack of post-fire recovery during the last centuries, in comparison with active tree regeneration more than 1,000 years ago, indicates that the current climate does not favour such expansion.     

Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere

Recent warming of Northern Hemisphere (NH) land is well documented and typically greater in winter/spring than other seasons. Physical environment responses to warming have been reported, but not details of large‐area temperate growing season impacts, or consequences for ecosystems and agriculture. To date, hemispheric‐scale measurements of biospheric changes have been confined to remote sensing. However, these studies did not provide detailed data needed for many investigations. Here, we show that a suite of modeled and derived measures (produced from daily maximum–minimum temperatures) linking plant development (phenology) with its basic climatic drivers provide a reliable and spatially extensive method for monitoring general impacts of global warming on the start of the growing season. Results are consistent with prior smaller area studies, confirming a nearly universal quicker onset of early spring warmth (spring indices (SI) first leaf date, ?1.2 days decade^?1), late spring warmth (SI first bloom date, ?1.0 days decade^?1; last spring day below 5°C, ?1.4 days decade^?1), and last spring freeze date (?1.5 days decade^?1) across most temperate NH land regions over the 1955–2002 period. However, dynamics differ among major continental areas with North American first leaf and last freeze date changes displaying a complex spatial relationship. Europe presents a spatial pattern of change, with western continental areas showing last freeze dates getting earlier faster, some central areas having last freeze and first leaf dates progressing at about the same pace, while in portions of Northern and Eastern Europe first leaf dates are getting earlier faster than last freeze dates. Across East Asia last freeze dates are getting earlier faster than first leaf dates.     

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5° (latitude × longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960–2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991–2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041–2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5–5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long‐term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics.     

Spatial and temporal variations in boreal forest fire frequency in northern Alberta

Abstract. Spatial and temporal variations in fire frequency in the boreal forest of Wood Buffalo National Park (WBNP) were assessed using forest stand age, fire scar and historical data. I test the hypotheses that (1) fire frequency is higher in jack pine forests and aspen forests than in black spruce forests and white spruce forests, (2) these variations in fire frequency can be related to the mean waterbreak distance (MWD) around a site and (3) fire frequency has changed over the past 300 years. The fire cycles (the time required to burn an area equal in size to the entire study area) in jack pine forests (39 years) and in aspen forests (39 years) were significantly shorter than those in black spruce forests (78 years) and in white spruce forests (96 years). The length of the fire cycle varies inversely with the MWD around a site, and the MWD was significantly higher in jack pine and aspen forests than in black or white spruce forests. It is suggested that covariations between soil type and the MWD influence, respectively, variations in forest dominant and fire frequency. A change in fire frequency at 1860 was apparent in the fire history for all of WBNP, the black spruce dominated stands, and the near and medium MWD classes. The fire cycle estimates for these classes were all significantly shorter during the period 1750 to 1859 (fire cycles = 25–49 years) than they were in the period 1860 to 1989 (fire cycles = 59–89 years). The possible roles of changes in climate and aboriginal burning practices in causing the temporal change in fire frequency are discussed.     

Heterogeneous response of circumboreal wildfire risk to climate change since the early 1900s

We investigated changes in wildfire risk over the 1901?2002 (ad ) period with an analysis of broad‐scale patterns of July monthly drought code (MDC) variability on 28 forested ecoregions of the North American and Eurasian continents. The MDC is an estimate of the net effect of changes in evapotranspiration and precipitation on cumulative moisture depletion in soils, and is well correlated with annual fire statistics across the circumboreal (explaining 25–61% of the variance in regional area burned). We used linear trend and regime shift analyses to investigate (multi‐) decadal changes in MDC and percentage area affected by drought, and kernel function for analysis of temporal changes in the occurrence rates of extreme drought years. Our analyses did not reveal widespread patterns of linear increases in dryness through time as a response to rising Northern Hemisphere land temperatures. Instead, we found heterogeneous patterns of drought severity changes that were inherent to the nonuniformly distributed impacts of climate change on dryness. Notably, significant trends toward increasing summer moisture in southeastern and southwestern boreal Canada were detected. The diminishing wildfire risk in these regions is coherent with widely reported decreases in area burned since about 1850, as reconstructed by dendrochronological dating of forest stands. Conversely, we found evidence for increasing percentage area affected by extreme droughts in Eurasia (+0.57% per decade; P<0.05) and occurrence rates of extreme drought years in Eurasian taiga (centered principally on the Okhotsk–Manchurian taiga, P=0.07). Although not statistically significant, temporal changes in occurrence rates are sufficiently important spatially to be paid further attention. The absence of a linear trend in MDC severity, in conjunction with the presence of an increase in the occurrence rate of extreme drought years, suggest that fire disturbance regimes in the Eurasian taiga could be shifting toward being increasingly pulse dependent.     

Human Impacts on the Fire Regime of Interior Alaska: Interactions among Fuels, Ignition Sources, and Fire Suppression

Wildfire is the major natural agent of disturbance in interior Alaska. We examined the magnitude of human impact on fire by comparing fire regime between individual 1-km² grid cells designated for fire suppression with lands where fires are allowed to burn naturally. Two-thirds of interior Alaska has an essentially natural fire regime, with few human ignitions, negligible suppression activity, and many large lightning-caused fires. In the 17% of land that is designated for fire suppression due to its proximity to communities and roads, there was a 50% reduction in the proportion of area burned from 1992–2001, relative to areas without suppression. The remaining 16% of land serves as a buffer, receives some suppression, and has an intermediate fire regime. Even though there were 50 times more fires and the fire season began two months earlier in lands designated for suppression, most of these fires were lit by people and remained small because fires tended to occur at times and places less favorable for fire spread and were more accessible to fire fighters compared to lands not designated for suppression. Even in the absence of fire suppression, human-caused fires were less likely to exceed 400 ha compared to lightning-caused fires. Fire suppression reduced area burned in all fuel types but was somewhat more effective in less flammable (non-forest) vegetation. Alaska’s fire policy of focusing suppression efforts on a small proportion of the fire-prone region maximizes the ecological and social benefits associated with fire-dependent ecosystem services, while minimizing the social and ecological costs of suppression. Application of this policy to other areas would require well-informed managers and stakeholders to make difficult decisions about the relative costs and benefits of fire across ecologically and culturally variable landscapes.     

A Holocene sequence of vegetation change at Lake Eteza, coastal KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Palynological and sedimentological data from a core extracted from Lake Eteza shed new light on the Holocene vegetation and climate history in KwaZulu-Natal and can be linked to regional and global climate change. A 2072 cm core with nineteen radiocarbon dates and chronological extrapolation to the bottom of the sequence suggests that sedimentation started ca. 10 200 cal yrs BP. Between ca. 10 200 and 6800 cal yrs BP pollen indicators point to a change from intermediately humid conditions to comparatively drier grassy environments. This is in good agreement with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) fluctuations from a core in the Mozambique Channel which influence precipitation in coastal KwaZulu-Natal, and the beginning of the Holocene Thermal Maximum ca. 10 500 cal yrs BP. The lower section of the core corresponds to gradually increasing Holocene sea levels along the coast and development of freshwater or estuarine conditions at Lake Eteza. The middle Holocene (ca. 6800-3600 cal yrs BP), when the sea level reached its highest stand and SST peak, indicate humid climatic conditions that favoured an increase of forest trees, e.g. Podocarpus, and undergrowth plants like Issoglossa. As a consequence of higher precipitation and increase of the water table, conditions were favourable for the spread of mangrove, swamp and possibly riverine forest. During the late Holocene after ca. 3600 cal yrs BP a decrease of Podocarpus and other trees as well as an increase of Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae, grasses and Phoenix coincide with a return to lower sea levels and drier conditions. The decrease of all trees including Phoenix at ca. 700 cal yrs BP, accompanied by rapid sedimentation rates, possibly reflect forest clearing and upland erosion induced by activities of Iron Age settlers. A dry period at the globally recognized onset of the Little Ice Age might have contributed to these changes. Late Iron Age settlers have probably already introduced Zea mays, which was detected in the profile since ca. 210 BP. The appearance of neophytes like Pinus, Casuarina and pollen of Ambrosia-type in the youngest sediments indicates increased disturbance of European settlements and land use since ca. 100 cal yrs BP.     

Debating the greening vs. browning of the North American boreal forest: differences between satellite datasets

A number of remote sensing studies have evaluated the temporal trends of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI or vegetation greenness) in the North American boreal forest during the last two decades, often getting quite different results. To examine the effect that the use of different datasets might be having on the estimated trends, we compared the temporal trends of recently burned and unburned sites of boreal forest in central Canada calculated from two datasets: the Global Inventory, Monitoring, and Modeling Studies (GIMMS), which is the most commonly used 8 km dataset, and a new 1 km dataset developed by the Canadian Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS). We compared the NDVI trends of both datasets along a fire severity gradient in order to evaluate the variance in regeneration rates. Temporal trends were calculated using the seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test, a rank‐based, nonparametric test, which is robust against seasonality, nonnormality, heteroscedasticity, missing values, and serial dependence. The results showed contrasting NDVI trends between the CCRS and the GIMMS datasets. The CCRS dataset showed NDVI increases in all recently burned sites and in 50% of the unburned sites. Surprisingly, the GIMMS dataset did not capture the NDVI recovery in most burned sites and even showed NDVI declines in some burned sites one decade after fire. Between 50% and 75% of GIMMS pixels showed NDVI decreases in the unburned forest compared with <1% of CCRS pixels. Being the most broadly used dataset for monitoring ecosystem and carbon balance changes, the bias towards negative trends in the GIMMS dataset in the North American boreal forest has broad implications for the evaluation of vegetation and carbon dynamics in this region and globally.     

Large geographical differences in the sensitivity of ice‐covered lakes and rivers in the Northern Hemisphere to temperature changes

Based on a unique dataset of more than 50 000 observations of ice phenology from 1213 lakes and 236 rivers in 12 different countries, we show that interannual variations in the timing of ice‐on and ice‐off on lakes and rivers are not equally pronounced over the entire Northern Hemisphere, but increase strongly towards geographical regions that experience only short periods during which the air temperature falls below 0 °C. We explain our observations by interannual fluctuation patterns of air temperature and suggest that lake and river ecosystems in such geographical regions are particularly vulnerable to global warming, as high interannual variability is known to have important ramifications for ecosystem structure and functioning. We estimate that the standard deviation of the duration of ice cover, viewed as a measure of interannual variability, exceeds 25 days for lakes and rivers located on 7% of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere. Such high variability might be an early warning signal for a critical transition from strictly dimictic, ice‐covered systems to monomictic, open‐water systems. Using the Global Lake and Wetland Database, we suggest that 3.7% of the world's lakes larger than 0.1 km² are at high risk of becoming open‐water systems in the near future, which will have immediate consequences for global biogeochemical cycles.     

Diurnal and seasonal variation in methane emissions in a northern Canadian peatland measured by eddy covariance

Eddy covariance measurements of methane (CH₄) net flux were made in a boreal fen, typical of the most abundant peatlands in western Canada during May–September 2007. The objectives of this study were to determine: (i) the magnitude of diurnal and seasonal variation in CH₄ net flux, (ii) the relationship between the temporally varying flux rates and associated changes in controlling biotic and abiotic factors, and (iii) the contribution of CH₄ emission to the ecosystem growing season carbon budget. There was significant diurnal variation in CH₄ emission during the peak of the growing season that was strongly correlated with associated changes in solar radiation, latent heat flux, air temperature and ecosystem conductance to water vapor. During days 181–215, nighttime average CH₄ efflux was only 47% of the average midday values. The peak value for daily average CH₄ emission rate was approximately 80 nmol m^?2 s^?1 (4.6 mg CH₄ m^?2 h^?1), and seasonal variation in CH₄ flux was strongly correlated with changes in soil temperature. Integrated over the entire measurement period [days 144–269 (late May–late September)], the total CH₄ emission was 3.2 g CH₄ m^?2, which was quite low relative to other wetland ecosystems and to the simultaneous high rate of ecosystem net CO₂ sequestration that was measured (18.1 mol CO₂ m^?2 or 217 g C m^?2). We estimate that the negative radiative forcing (cooling) associated with net carbon storage over the life of the peatland (approximately 2200 years) was at least twice the value of positive radiative forcing (warming) caused by net CH₄ emission over the last 50 years.     

Climate change and its impact on the forests of Kilimanjaro

Cloud forests are of great importance in the hydrological functioning of watersheds in subhumid East Africa. However, the montane forests of Mt. Kilimanjaro are heavily threatened by global change impacts. Based on an evaluation of over 1500 vegetation plots and interpretation of satellite imagery from 1976 and 2000, land-cover changes on Kilimanjaro were evaluated and their impact on the water balance estimated. While the vanishing glaciers of Kilimanjaro attract broad interest, the associated increase of frequency and intensity of fires on the slopes of Kilimanjaro is less conspicuous but ecologically far more significant. These climate change-induced fires have lead to changes in species composition and structure of the forests and to a downward shift of the upper forest line by several hundred metres. During the last 70 years, Kilimanjaro has lost nearly one-third of its forest cover, in the upper areas caused by fire, on the lower forest border mainly caused by clearing. The loss of 150 km² of cloud forest – the most effective source in the upper montane and subalpine fog interception zone – caused by fire during the last three decades means a considerable reduction in water yield. In contrast to common belief, global warming does not necessarily cause upward migration of plants and animals. On Kilimanjaro the opposite trend is under way, with consequences more harmful than those due to the loss of the showy ice cap of Africa's highest mountain.     

Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest

The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire–climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire–climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest.     

灌木年轮学研究进展

灌木往往分布在树线以上或以北的高海拔和高纬度地区以及干旱、半干旱区,是把传统上以乔木为主的树轮研究扩展至森林分布界限以外的唯一选择.尽管灌木具有以上研究潜力,迄今用于树木年代学研究的灌木种类仅有30种左右.介绍了灌木年轮研究方法,综述了过去几十年来环北极高纬度地区,干旱、半干旱区以及高海拔地区的灌木年轮研究的主要进展.主要研究进展如下:(1)发掘一些灌木的树木年代学潜力;(2)揭示限制灌木生长的主要环境因子,并尝试利用灌木年轮宽度等指标重建过去区域气候变化历史;(3)探讨全球变暖的背景下,灌木的生长或分布范围的变化;(4)通过人为控制增温来揭示变暖对灌木生理特征和生长的影响.这些研究展示了灌木在扩展传统乔木树轮研究网络方面的潜力,也是树木年代学研究中最有前景的研究方向之一.目前的灌木年轮学研究多集中于环北极苔原带.作为地球的第三极,青藏高原具有广泛的高山灌木分布,具有把青藏高原边缘区以乔木为主的树木年轮网络扩展至更高海拔和高原内部的潜力.青藏高原高山灌木的年轮学研究并没有引起足够的重视.青藏高原高山灌木的生长是如何适应极端环境条件的,全球变暖的背景下,青藏高原高山灌木的分布和生长正在发生哪些变化等,都有待深入研究.