Distribution and abundance patterns of bird community and raptor populations in the Andaman archipelago

A qualitative survey of the terrestrial bird community (sixty-five species) and a quantitative analysis of the five-diurnal raptor assemblage were earned out on 33 islands of the oceanic Andaman archipelago in the Bay of Bengal Among seven geographical parameters, island area was the main determinant of species richness for both the whole bird community and each category of species associated with four habitat types Species richness decreased most markedly with island size in the smallest islands and in open habitat species The rarest forest species were the most extinction prone with decreasing island size Specific habitat selection was the most prominent ecological correlate of inter island species distribution Observed species distribution patterns did not fit the random species placement or equprobable occurrence hypotheses Raptors were primarily forest species, two of them restricted to forest interior, two more tolerant of fragmentation and one naturally associated with mangroves Unexpectedly, the two rarest and most area sensitive raptors were the two smallest species with a strong active flight, whereas the most abundant and widespread species was the most forest interior and endemic taxon Both raptor species richness, species frequency of occurrence and abundance indices decreased with island area, which was consistently the most significant determinant of every species' occurrence and abundance There was a significant correlation between abundance or frequency of occurrence of every raptor species and the proportion of their preferred habitat type No relationship was found between habitat niche breadth or local abundance of any species and their distribution range among islands The hypothesis of random composition of species assemblages on islands was not supported because of species specific habitat selection Any evidence of interspecific competitive exclusion was limited to the striking habitat segregation of the two congeneric serpent eagles A metapopulation structure was suggested by small population distribution patterns, observed sea crossing and the circumstances of an apparent extinction     

Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?

Models that couple habitat suitability with demographic processes offer a potentially improved approach for estimating spatial distributional shifts and extinction risk under climate change. Applying such an approach to five species of Australian plants with contrasting demographic traits, we show that: (i) predicted climate‐driven changes in range area are sensitive to the underlying habitat model, regardless of whether demographic traits and their interaction with habitat patch configuration are modeled explicitly; and (ii) caution should be exercised when using predicted changes in total habitat suitability or geographic extent to infer extinction risk, because the relationship between these metrics is often weak. Measures of extinction risk, which quantify threats to population persistence, are particularly sensitive to life‐history traits, such as recruitment response to fire, which explained approximately 60% of the deviance in expected minimum abundance. Dispersal dynamics and habitat patch structure have the strongest influence on the amount of movement of the trailing and leading edge of the range margin, explaining roughly 40% of modeled structural deviance. These results underscore the need to consider direct measures of extinction risk (population declines and other measures of stochastic viability), as well as measures of change in habitat area, when assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity. Furthermore, direct estimation of extinction risk incorporates important demographic and ecosystem processes, which potentially influence species’ vulnerability to extinction due to climate change.     

Floristic biogeography of the Hawaiian Islands: influences of area, environment and paleogeography

Aim A detailed database of distributions and phylogenetic relationships of native Hawaiian flowering plant species is used to weigh the relative influences of environmental and historical factors on species numbers and endemism. Location The Hawaiian Islands are isolated in the North Pacific Ocean nearly 4000 km from the nearest continent and nearly as distant from the closest high islands, the Marquesas. The range of island sizes, environments, and geological histories within an extremely isolated archipelago make the Hawaiian Islands an ideal system in which to study spatial variation in species distributions and diversity. Because the biota is derived from colonization followed by extensive speciation, the role of evolution in shaping the regional species assemblage can be readily examined. Methods For whole islands and regions of each major habitat, species–area relationships were assessed. Residuals of species–area relationships were subjected to correlation analysis with measures of endemism, isolation, elevation and island age. Putative groups of descendents of each colonist from outside the Hawaiian Islands were considered phylogenetic lineages whose distributions were included in analyses. Results The species–area relationship is a prominent pattern among islands and among regions of each given habitat. Species number in each case correlates positively with number of endemics, number of lineages and number of species per lineage. For mesic and wet habitat regions, island age is more influential than area on species numbers, with older islands having more species, more single‐island endemics, and higher species : lineage ratios than their areas alone would predict. Main conclusions Because species numbers and endemism are closely tied to speciation in the Hawaiian flora, particularly in the most species‐rich phylogenetic lineages, individual islands’ histories are central in shaping their biota. The Maui Nui complex of islands (Maui, Moloka‘i, Lāna‘i and Kaho‘olawe), which formed a single large landmass during most of its history, is best viewed in terms of either the age or area of the complex as a whole, rather than the individual islands existing today.     

Population genetic suggestions to offset the extinction ratchet in the endangered Canarian endemic Atractylis preauxiana (Asteraceae)

We examined the levels and apportionment of genetic variation of the 11 known subpopulations of Atractylis preauxiana at 95 RAPD loci to help streamline a conservation strategy for this Canarian endemic taxon, which is in a critical situation because of the constant exposure of plants to intensive, uncontrolled anthropic action in the last few decades. Our results revealed low genetic variation levels that match with the general picture of demographic and habitat degradation that this taxon is undergoing. Although geographic isolation between Tenerife and Gran Canaria is an effective barrier to gene flow, genetic heterogeneity within islands is also substantial, plausibly due to the negative impact of fragmentation on genetic variation. Our genetic results, together with declining population sizes, poor seedling survival, and recent population extinctions, compellingly indicate that A. preauxiana is undergoing an extinction ratchet, whereby every further local extinction will add up to the probability of total species’ extinction. Our genetic results suggest that mitigating the deleterious consequences of this effect entails urgent mixed reinforcements of all sub-populations with sub-populations from the same island and urgent translocation of the two sub-populations from Tenerife that are doomed to extinction to ecologically suitable areas, together with seed collection and preservation in a convenient ex situ banking facility.     

Orchid biogeography and factors associated with rarity in a biodiversity hotspot,the Southwest Australian Floristic Region

Aim The causes of orchid diversification and intrinsic rarity are poorly resolved. The Orchidaceae of the Southwest Australian Floristic Region use a diversity of pollination strategies and sites of mycorrhizal infection, and occupy a diversity of habitats. We combined a biogeographic analysis with analysis of factors associated with rarity to establish: (1) the landscape features correlated with taxon turnover and speciation, and (2) the possible role in taxon rarity of geographic region, pollination strategy, edaphic habitat and site of mycorrhizal infection. Location Southwest Australian Floristic Region. Methods The distributions of 407 orchid taxa (species and subspecies) were mapped at the quarter‐degree scale using 13,267 collections in the Western Australian Herbarium. This database was used to map taxon richness, for a biogeographic analysis and to quantify rarity of taxa. Using herbarium records, rarity was expressed as mean abundance, mean distribution and incidence of rarity based on abundance and distribution for each genus. We tested for differences in rarity of species between pollination strategies, edaphic habitats and sites of mycorrhizal infection. Results Taxon richness was highest in the High Rainfall Province. Biogeographic provincial boundaries for orchids were aligned with rainfall, while district boundaries tended to follow geological formations. When rarity was defined as either low abundance or small distribution, the greatest number of rare taxa occurred in areas of high taxon richness and naturally fragmented edaphic environments. For both abundance and distributional extent, sexual deception had a significantly higher incidence of rarity than food‐rewarding taxa. There was no significant difference in rarity with site of mycorrhizal infection. Main conclusions While large‐scale edaphic and climatic variation are correlated with orchid taxon turnover and speciation in a similar fashion to the flora in general, the processes responsible for patterns of diversity may differ. Fragmented edaphic environments appear to be associated with a higher incidence of rare species due to limited dispersal/colonization opportunities or radiations of taxa in allopatry. The high incidence of rarity in sexually deceptive taxa could be due to either low fruit set or the risk of specializing on a single pollinator species.     

Habitat loss and the limits to endangered species recovery

Canada is one of the last places on earth with extensive wilderness areas, yet the number of Canadian species threatened with extinction continues to rise every year. Using satellite‐derived land use data, we find that habitat loss explains most of the variation in numbers of endangered species across Canada. Habitat loss within species ranges is, therefore, likely to be the leading factor inhibiting their recovery. We measured habitat loss individually within the known ranges of 243 terrestrial species at risk of extinction across Canada. Recovery potential, as measured by extent of natural habitat within each species’ range, is bimodally distributed, but less than 50% of the range of the majority of Canada's species at risk is natural habitat and there is no detectable habitat remaining for 16 of the 243 species at risk. There were no differences in the recovery potential of species categorized either by threat level (special concern, threatened, or endangered) or taxon. Despite having extensive wilderness areas, Canada has similar rates of endangerment to other countries in the Americas, underlining the effect of severe habitat loss to intensive agriculture that has occurred in Canada's most biologically diverse regions. Improvements to protected areas networks and especially cooperative conservation activities with private landowners will do the most to improve the recovery prospects of species at risk in Canada.     

Abundance-age-area relationships in an insular plant community

Two processes are thought to generate positive relationships between species richness and island area. The areaper se hypothesis states that larger islands maintain larger populations, which are less susceptible to extinction. The habitat hypothesis states that larger islands contain more habitats, and therefore a greater number of habitat specialists. However, the importance of each mechanism is debated. I tested the areaper se and habitat hypotheses by comparing relationships between plant abundance, age and island area in five shrub species on islands off the coast of British Columbia, Canada. Results showed that two shrub species increased in both abundance and age with island area. The remaining three species showed no differences in abundance and age with island area. Conifer abundances increased with island area, which generated differences in habitat availability. Smaller islands were dominated by open habitat, while larger islands contained both open and forested habitats. Changes in habitat availability with island area could explain patterns in plant abundance and age. The two species that increased in abundance with island area were commonly found in conifer forest on the mainland, and their distributions were consistent with the distribution forest habitat. Positive relationships between plant age and island area in these two species may result from lower survivorship in the open habitat, which dominated small islands. The three species that showed no relationship between abundance and island area are commonly found in open habitat on the mainland, and their island distributions paralleled the availability of open habitat on islands. Similar plant ages on different sized islands may result from their occurrence in open habitat on both large and small islands. Overall results support the habitat hypothesis and indicate that species distributions result from the interaction between habitat affinities and changes in habitat availability with island area.     

Habitat amount hypothesis and passive sampling explain mammal species composition in Amazonian river islands

Nested structures of species assemblages have been frequently associated with patch size and isolation, leading to the conclusion that colonization–extinction dynamics drives nestedness. The ‘passive sampling’ model states that the regional abundance of species randomly determines their occurrence in patches. The ‘habitat amount hypothesis’ also challenges patch size and isolation effects, arguing that they occur because of a ‘sample area effect’. Here, we (a) ask whether the structure of the mammal assemblages of fluvial islands shows a nested pattern, (b) test whether species’ regional abundance predicts species’ occurrence on islands, and (c) ask whether habitat amount in the landscape and matrix resistance to biological flow predict the islands’ species composition. We quantified nestedness and tested its significance using null models. We used a regression model to analyze whether a species’ relative regional abundance predicts its incidence on islands. We accessed islands’ species composition by an NMDS ordination and used multiple regression to evaluate how species composition responds to habitat amount and matrix resistance. The degree of nestedness did not differ from that expected by the passive sampling hypothesis. Likewise, species’ regional abundance predicted its occurrence on islands. Habitat amount successfully predicted the species composition on islands, whereas matrix resistance did not. We suggest the application of habitat amount hypothesis for predicting species composition in other patchy systems. Although the island biogeography perspective has dominated the literature, we suggest that the passive sampling perspective is more appropriate for explaining the assemblages’ structure in this and other non‐equilibrium patch systems. Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.     

Vascular plant species richness in relation to habitat diversity and island area in the Finnish Archipelago

Aim The aim of this study is to explore the interrelationships between island area, species number and habitat diversity in two archipelago areas. Location The study areas, Brunskär and Getskär, are located in an archipelago in south‐western Finland. Methods The study areas, 82 islands in Brunskär and 78 in Getskär, were classified into nine habitat types based on land cover. In the Brunskär area, the flora (351 species) was surveyed separately for each individual habitat on the islands. In the Getskär area, the flora (302 species) was surveyed on a whole‐island basis. We used standard techniques to analyse the species–area relationship on a whole‐island and a habitat level. We also tested our data for the small island effect (SIE) using breakpoint and path analysis models. Results Species richness was significantly associated with both island area and habitat diversity. Vegetated area in particular, defined as island area with the rock habitat subtracted, proved to be a strong predictor of species richness. Species number had a greater association with island area multiplied by the number of habitats than with island area or habitat number separately. The tests for a SIE in the species–area relationship showed the existence of a SIE in one of the island groups. No SIE could be detected for the species–vegetated area relationship in either of the island groups. The strength of the species–area relationship differed considerably between the habitats. Main conclusions The general principles of island biogeography apply well to the 160 islands in this study. Vascular plant diversity for small islands is strongly influenced by physiographic factors. For the small islands with thin and varying soil cover, vegetated area was the most powerful predictor of species richness. The species–area curves of various habitats showed large variations, suggesting that the measurement of habitat areas and establishment of habitat‐based species lists are needed to better understand species richness on islands. We found some evidence of a SIE, but it is debatable whether this is a ‘true’ SIE or a soil cover/habitat characteristics feature.     

Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present.     

Breeding birds on small islands: island biogeography or optimal foraging?

1. We test MacArthur and Wilson's theory about the biogeography of communities on isolated habitat patches using bird breeding records from 16 small islands off the coasts of Britain and Ireland. 2. A traditional examination of patterns of species richness on these islands suggests that area and habitat diversity are important predictors, but that isolation and latitude have a negligible impact in this system. 3. Unlike traditional studies, we directly examine the fundamental processes of colonization and local extinction (cessation of breeding), rather than higher-order phenomena such as species richness. 4. We find that many of MacArthur and Wilson's predictions hold: colonization probability is lower on more isolated islands, and extinction probability is lower on larger islands and those with a greater diversity of habitats. 5. We also find an unexpected pattern: extinction probability is much lower on more isolated islands. This is the strongest relationship in these data, and isolation is the best single predictor of colonization and extinction. 6. Our results show that examination of species richness alone is misleading. Isolation has a strong effect on both of the dynamic processes that underlie richness, and in this system, the reductions in both colonization and extinction probability seen on more distant islands have opposing influences on species richness, and largely cancel each other out. 7. We suggest that an appropriate model for this system might be optimal foraging theory, which predicts that organisms will stay longer in a resource patch if the distance to a neighbouring patch is large. If nest sites and food are the resources in this system, then optimal foraging theory predicts the pattern we observe. 8. We advance the hypothesis that there is a class of spatial systems, defined by their scale and by the taxon under consideration, at which decision-making processes are a key driver of the spatiotemporal dynamics. The appropriate theory for such systems will be a hybrid of concepts from biogeography/metapopulation theory and behavioural ecology.     

Distribution and habitat specialization of species affect local extinction in dragonfly Odonata populations

The object of our study was to determine the effect of distribution and habitat specialization of odonate species on local extinction in streams in central Finland. We studied the local extinction of the 20 most abundant dragonfly (Odonata) species in 34 small creeks and brooks in central Finland. The historical presence of each studied species in our research area was confirmed using existing records gathered between 1930 and 1975. A minimum of five records was available for each species. During the summers of 1995 and 1996, we investigated the current persistence of 219 separate populations with historical presence. In total, 98 historical populations were vanished. As predicted, we found that species with a narrow distribution were less persistent than species with a broad distribution. Therefore, the extinction risk of a species was inversely related to the width of its regional distribution. Using reference works, species were categorized into two main breeding habitat types: lotic species or lentic species. The species main habitat type was a significant predictor of local extinction risk after statistical removal of the effect of regional distribution on extinction risk. The lotic species had lower local extinction risk than other species. Altogether, the highest extinction risk was found in habitat-specialist species associated with peatlands, probably due to loss of natural breeding habitat. On the other hand, extinction risk was lower in widely distributed habitat generalist species than true lotic species. The local extinction within species was more common in small dynamic upstream than in larger stable downstream habitats. The results of this study are consistent with meta-population theory.     

Estimation of species extinction: what are the consequences when total species number is unknown?

The species–area relationship (SAR) is known to overestimate species extinction but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear to a great extent. Here, I show that when total species number in an area is unknown, the SAR model exaggerates the estimation of species extinction. It is proposed that to accurately estimate species extinction caused by habitat destruction, one of the principal prerequisites is to accurately total the species numbers presented in the whole study area. One can better evaluate and compare alternative theoretical SAR models on the accurate estimation of species loss only when the exact total species number for the whole area is clear. This presents an opportunity for ecologists to simulate more research on accurately estimating Whittaker’s gamma diversity for the purpose of better predicting species loss.     

Plant extinction dynamics in an insular metacommunity

Changes in the composition of local communities through time (i.e. species turnover) is a common phenomenon in insular biology. However, the mechanisms promoting variation in species turnover, both among islands and among species, are poorly understood. In an effort to better understand the causes of variation in species turnover, we evaluated the colonization and extinction dynamics of plant populations on 18 small islands off the west coast of Canada. In 1997, we quantified total population sizes of 10 woody angiosperm species. A decade later, we resampled islands to test whether: 1) species turnover occurred, 2) colonization events were offset by extinction events, 2) variation in extinction rates among islands was associated with population sizes, average plant heights, island area, island isolation or each island's exposure to ocean-born disturbances, and 3) variation in extinction rates among species was associated with plant life history traits. Results showed that extinction events outnumbered colonization events, suggesting that the metacommunity is in 'disequilibrium'. Variation in extinction rates among islands was unrelated to island area and isolation. However, extinction rates increased with exposure to ocean-born disturbances and decreased with both initial population sizes and average plant heights. Species with thicker, tougher leaves (i.e. high leaf mass per area) were less prone to extinction than species with thinner, more papery leaves. Overall results indicate that species turnover is common and that it is generated primarily by extinction. Variation in extinction rates appears to result from an interaction between among-island effects (exposure, population size and plant stature) and among-species effects (leaf toughness), suggesting that ocean-born disturbances play a key role in determining metacommunity structure.     

BIODIVERSITY RESEARCH: Nestedness for different reasons: the distributions of birds,lizards and small mammals on islands of an inundated lake

Aim We examined whether the community compositions of birds, lizards and small mammals were nested in a fragmented landscape in the Thousand Island Lake, China. We also assessed whether the mechanisms influencing nestedness differed among these taxonomic groups. Location Thousand Island Lake, China. Methods Presence/absence matrices were compiled for birds (42 islands) and lizards (42 islands) using line‐transect methods, and for small mammals (14 islands) using live‐trapping methods from 2006 to 2009. Nestedness was analysed using BINMATNEST, and statistical significance was assessed using the conservative null model 3. We used Spearman rank correlations and partial Spearman rank correlations to examine associations of nestedness and habitat variables (area, isolation, habitat diversity and plant richness) as well as life‐history traits (body size, habitat specificity, geographical range size and area requirement) related to species extinction and immigration tendencies. Results The community compositions of birds, lizards and small mammals were all significantly nested, but the causal factors underlying nestedness differed among taxonomic groups. For birds, island area, habitat specificity and area requirement were significantly correlated with nestedness after controlling for other independent variables. For lizards, habitat heterogeneity was the single best correlate of nestedness. For small mammals, island area, habitat heterogeneity and habitat specificity were significantly correlated with nestedness. The nested patterns of birds, lizards and small mammals were not attributable to passive sampling or selective colonization. Main conclusions The processes influencing nested patterns differed among taxonomic groups. Nestedness of bird assemblages was driven by selective extinction, and lizard assemblage was caused by habitat nestedness, while nestedness of small mammals resulted from both selective extinction and habitat nestedness. Therefore, we should take taxonomic differences into account when analysing nestedness to develop conservation guidelines and refrain from using single taxa as surrogates for others.     

Habitat islands and the equilibrium theory of island biogeography: testing some predictions

Summary Species-area data from a study of marsh birds are used to test five predictions generated by the equilibrium theory of island biogeography. Three predictions are supported: we found a significant species-area relationship, a non-zero level of turnover, and a variance-mean ratio of 0.5. One prediction is rejected: the extinction rates were not greater on small islands. The results of one test are equivocal: the number of species on each island was not always the same. As Gilbert (1980) suggests, a strong species-area relationship alone does not validate the theory. The avian communities we studied were on habitat islands, not true islands, and underwent complete extinction annually. Thus caution must be used before applying the theory to these and other habitat islands.     

The effect of fragment area on site‐level biodiversity

Habitat fragmentation accompanies habitat loss, and drives additional biodiversity change; but few global biodiversity models explicitly analyse the effects of both fragmentation and loss. Here we propose and test the hypothesis that, as fragment area increases, species density (the number of species in a standardised plot) will scale with an exponent given by the difference between the exponents of the species–area relationships for islands (z ~ 0.25) and in contiguous habitat (z ~ 0.15), and test whether scaling varies between land uses. We also investigate the scaling of overall abundance and rarefaction‐based richness, as some mechanisms make different predictions about how fragment area should affect them. The relevant data from the taxonomically and geographically broad PREDICTS database were used to model the three diversity measures, testing their scaling with fragment area and whether the scaling exponent varied among land uses (primary forest, secondary forest, plantation forest, cropland and pasture). In addition, the consistency of the response of species density to fragment area was tested across three well represented taxa (Magnoliopsida, Hymenoptera and ‘herptiles’). Species density and total abundance showed area‐scaling exponents of 0.07 and 0.16, respectively, and these exponents did not vary significantly among land uses; rarefaction‐based richness by contrast did not increase consistently with area. These results suggest that the area‐scaling of species density is driven by the area‐scaling of total abundance, with additive edge effects (species moving into the small fragments from the surroundings) opposing – but not fully overcoming – the effect of fragment area on overall density of individuals. The interaction between fragment area and higher taxon (plants, vertebrates and invertebrates), which remained in the rarefied richness model, indicates that mechanisms may vary among groups.     

Biogeography of grasses (Poaceae) on islands of southwestern Australia

Abstract The number of native grass species and exotic grass species present on 129 offshore islands of southwestern Australia is best predicted by island area and island disturbance, respectively. Isolation of islands and gull activity on islands only slightly improved these predictions. Species turnover on a subset of 30 islands indicated that exotic grass species were more prone to local extinction and more likely to immigrate than native grass species. The major conservation implication of this study is that habitat disturbance on these islands should be minimized to reduce establishment of exotic grass species.     

Butterflies of European islands: the implications of the geography and ecology of rarity and endemicity for conservation

Depending on their faunal content islands can function as important ‘vehicles’ for conservation. In this study, we examine data on 440 butterfly species over 564 European islands in 10 island groups. To determine the status of the butterfly fauna, we have adopted two approaches, island-focused and species-focused, examined using principal components analysis and regression modelling. In the former, we relate species richness, rarity and endemicity to island geography (area, elevation, isolation and location in latitude and longitude); in the latter, species occurrence on islands is examined in relation to distribution, range, range boundaries, and altitudinal limits on the continent as well as species’ ecology (number of host plants) and morphology (wing expanse). Species on islands are also assessed for their status on the continental mainland, their distributional dynamics (extinctions, distribution changes) and conservation status (Red Data Book, European Habitat Directive, Species of European Conservation Concern and Bern Convention listing. Unexpectedly, we find that a large fraction of the European butterfly species is found on the islands (63.4%; 59% on small islands) comprising some 6.2% of the land area of Europe. Although species occurring on the islands tend, on the whole, to have lower conservation status and are not declining over Europe, 45 species are endemics restricted to the islands. Species richness shows only a weak locational pattern and is related as expected to isolation from the continental source and island area; but, both rarity and endemicity have distinctive geographical bias to southern Europe, on islands now under increasing pressure from climate change and increasingly intensive human exploitation. The vulnerability of species on islands is emphasised in the relationship of island occurrence (% occurrence and presence/absence of species on any island) with continental distributions. A large proportion of the variation (84%) is accounted by continental distribution, the southern range limit and lower altitudinal limit. Most species (69%) occur on very few islands (<5%). In view of ongoing species dynamics on islands, migrations and extinctions of species, island repositories of species depend in large part on conservation of butterflies at continental sources. The unique faunas and rare species on islands also depend on appropriate concern being given to the island faunas. Conservation of European islands is thus a two-way process, sustaining sources and conserving island refuges. Residuals from the regressions (islands with more or fewer species, rare and endemic species; species occurring more or less frequently than expected on islands) provide warning signals of regions and islands deserving immediate attention.