A comparative study of determinants of uxorilocal marriage in two counties of China

A strictly maintained patrilineal family system makes virilocal marriage almost universal and uxorilocal marriage rare in the history of rural China. Uxorilocal marriage can be divided into two types that may be termed, respectively, contingent and institutional. The former preserves family lineages in families without a son and occurs when uxorilocal marriage is uncommon. The latter serves practical economic purposes in families with sons and occurs when uxorilocal marriage is relatively prevalent. Using data from a survey in two counties of Shaanxi--Lueyang, where both kinds of uxorilocal marriage are prevalent, and Sanyuan, where uxorilocal marriage is rare and usually contingent--this paper employs logistic regression models in a quantitative comparative study of determinants of uxorilocal marriage in rural China. We show that the purposes and prevalence of the two types of uxorilocal marriage differ and that their determinants are also different in the two counties. In Sanyuan, the determinants are only a couple's sibling composition, membership in a large family clan, and educational level. In Lueyang, in addition to those determinants in Sanyuan, important contributions to the type of uxorilocal marriage include a couple's parental marriage type, age at marriage, adoption status, marriage arrangement, and their attitudes toward uxorilocal marriage. The results indicate the potential importance of encouraging uxorilocal marriage in rural areas as a means of mitigating demographic and social problems related to son preference, such as high sex ratio at birth and lack of old-age security, which are projected for China's future.     

The theoretical and political framing of the population factor in development

The silence about population growth in recent decades has hindered the ability of those concerned with ecological change, resource scarcity, health and educational systems, national security, and other global challenges to look with maximum objectivity at the problems they confront. Two central questions about population—(i) is population growth a problem? and (2) what causes fertility decline?—are often intertwined; if people think the second question implies possible coercion, or fear of upsetting cultures, they can be reluctant to talk about the first. The classic and economic theories explaining the demographic transition assume that couples want many children and they make decisions to have a smaller family when some socio-economic change occurs. However, there are numerous anomalies to this explanation. This paper suggests that the societal changes are neither necessary nor sufficient for family size to fall. Many barriers of non-evidence-based restrictive medical rules, cost, misinformation and social traditions exist between women and the fertility regulation methods and correct information they need to manage their family size. When these barriers are reduced, birth rates tend to decline. Many of the barriers reflect a patriarchal desire to control women, which can be largely explained by evolutionary biology. The theoretical explanations of fertility should (i) attach more weight to the many barriers to voluntary fertility regulation, (ii) recognize that a latent desire to control fertility may be far more prevalent among women than previously understood, and (iii) appreciate that women implicitly and rationally make benefit–cost analyses based on the information they have, wanting modern family planning only after they understand it is a safe option. Once it is understood that fertility can be lowered by purely voluntary means, comfort with talking about the population factor in development will rise.     

Fertility and social class in a French village, 1901-75

Explanations of rural-urban fertility differentials have normally lain in assumptions about the traditionalist nature of rural, and especially agricultural, societies in contrast to the more rationalist and modern attitudes towards the family that exist in urban societies. This paper raises 2 objections to such an oversimplified view of rural-urban fertility differentials. The 1st is that rural fertility is assumed to have been relatively uncontrolled until the final stages of the demographic transition: the possibility of significant early control on fertility in rural areas is discounted. The 2nd is that this simplistic view of fertility differentials ignores the existence of social sub-groups within the rural population and assumes that all country-dwellers are members of an idealized rural society and behave, demographically, in a uniform fashion. The extent to which it is possible to recognize distinctive patterns of marriage and fertility within sub-groups of the rural population is examined by an analysis of the fertility experience of 294 females who lived in a single village in southern Normandy at some period between 1901 and 1975. Biographical details were obtained from an exhaustive analysis of census lists and the civil registration documents to attempt a family and household reconstitution. Other sources used include electoral registers and land-ownership records. The pattern of evolution of fertility in the village for the period considered is derived using Coale's demographic indices: indices of female proportions married, marital fertility, illegitmate fertility and overall fertility are derived by standardizing the population under study against the age-specific fertility schedules of a population believed to have natural fertiltity (the American Hutterites). Overall fertility has increased slightly through the 75-year period, being notably low at the star of the century, chiefly as a result of the high average age at 1st marrige of girls from owner-oc pying farm families. Changes in overall fertility through the century have partly resulted from changes in the proportionate contribution of the different sub-classes of the village as a whole, but the increased importance of owner-occupying farm households has been compensated by a similar increase in the importance of employees in nonagricultural activities who have the highest fertility levels of all. The explanations of these differentials in fertility between sub-classes of the local population appear to lie in the relationships of those classes to the labor market, and in the degree to which capital accumulation and inheritance act as a brake on early marriage and fertility within marriage.     

Population homeostasis in sub-Saharan Africa

Global population growth remains one of the major challenges of the twenty-first century. This is particularly true for African countries which have been undergoing their demographic transitions. To investigate whether predicted increasing population density and urbanization can help to stabilize African population, we construct a database for 84 georeferenced Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) samples including 947,191 individuals in sub-Saharan Africa and match each location with gridded population density from NASA. We apply a proportional hazard model to evaluate the quantitative impact of local population density on the transitions from childlessness to motherhood, and from celibacy to marriage. Moving from the 5th to the 95th percentile of population density increases the median age at first birth by 2.2 years. This roughly decreases completed fertility by half a child. The same increase in population density increases the median age at first marriage by 3.3 years. These findings contribute to the understanding of why fertility has not dropped in Africa as fast as expected. One part of the answer is that population density remains low. Yet the total effect of increased density on fertility remains limited and counting on it to stabilize the population would be unrealistic.     

A Reexamination of Rendille Population Regulation

Rendille pastoralists of northern Kenya have long been cited as a noncontracepting population regulating population growth through cultural practices in response to environmental constraints. However, no actual demographic analysis of Rendille data has ever been undertaken. This article attempts such an analysis. The demographic mechanisms of possible population regulation are delineated and the possible rationale for such behavior explored. Analysis reveals that the Rendille cultural institution of sepaade, in which females of a specific cyclical age-set delay their age at marriage, significantly reduces fertility and population growth rates. However, this practice is not intended as a means of population-resource equilibrium. Furthermore, Rendille cognizance of and emphasis on the negative demographic concomitants of sepaade suggest that the tradition was adopted despite, rather than because of its dampening of population growth.     

Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments

We present a demographic model that describes the feedbacks between food supply, human mortality and fertility rates, and labor availability in expanding populations, where arable land area is not limiting. This model provides a quantitative framework to describe how environment, technology, and culture interact to influence the fates of preindustrial agricultural populations. We present equilibrium conditions and derive approximations for the equilibrium population growth rate, food availability, and other food-dependent measures of population well-being. We examine how the approximations respond to environmental changes and to human choices, and find that the impact of environmental quality depends upon whether it manifests through agricultural yield or maximum (food-independent) survival rates. Human choices can complement or offset environmental effects: greater labor investments increase both population growth and well-being, and therefore can counteract lower agricultural yield, while fertility control decreases the growth rate but can increase or decrease well-being. Finally we establish equilibrium stability criteria, and argue that the potential for loss of local stability at low population growth rates could have important consequences for populations that suffer significant environmental or demographic shocks.     

Whether to have a second child or not? An integrative approach to women's reproductive decision-making in current China

The transition to low fertility worldwide has led to introduction of diverse frameworks across disciplines to understand its causes and consequences. Previous attempts to compare the relative importance of the key factors influencing women's fertility decision-making largely focused on a single rather than multiple steps of decision-making—an important problem if different factors are associated with different steps. Furthermore, insufficient attention has been paid explicitly to husband's and already-born children's influences, two potentially important factors. Here we introduce a framework covering three steps of reproductive decision-making—ideal family size, fertility desire and fertility intention—and test it using multi-level survey data collected from Chinese one-child mothers. Mother's attitudes towards having two children were paramount factors underlying her ideal family size, and husband's and the firstborn child's attitudes were critical to her desire to have a second child, which in turn played a decisive role in her intention to have a second child. Although husband's attitude was related to all steps, most factors were only relevant to one step; e.g., perceived child mortality and value for old-age security predicted ideal family size, admiration—a prerequisite for social learning—for two-child families predicted fertility desire, and physical/economic constraints primarily predicted fertility intention. Our study emphasizes multiple decision-makers in family reproduction; indicates the relative importance of fertility-influencing factors could vary with steps of decision-making; and has important implications for population policy in low-fertility societies.     

The one child family policy: the good,the bad,and the ugly.

Rapid population growth in China during the 1950s and ''60s led to the "late, long, few" policy of the 1970s and a dramatic reduction in the total fertility rate. However, population growth remained too high for the economic targets of Deng Xiao Ping''s reforms, so the one child family policy was introduced in 1979 and has remained in force ever since. The strategy is different in urban and rural areas, and implementation varies from place to place depending on local conditions. The policy has been beneficial in terms of curbing population growth, aiding economic growth, and improving the health and welfare of women and children. On the negative side there are concerns about demographic and sex imbalance and the psychological effects for a generation of only children in the cities. The atrocities often associated with the policy, such as female infanticide, occur rarely now. China may relax the policy in the near future, probably allowing two children for everyone.     

Clinical implications of genetic susceptibility to diabetes mellitus

Abstract

Relatively little attention has been given to the interpretation of age‐at‐marriage differences in fertility. This paper discusses possible demographic and sociological sources of this differential. The argument is made that sociological interpretations deserve increased attention since most of the observed differential persists after control for likely demographic components (premarital pregnancy, unwanted fertility, and subfecundity) and for correlated social and background variables (education of self and parents, religion, farm background, number of siblings, whether respondent's parental family was intact, and husband's age at marriage). Multiple‐classification analysis is employed. The analysis concludes by noting that age at first birth has an even stronger relationship with fertility than age at marriage and that the sociological dimensions of age relevant to age at marriage are even more appropriate to age at entrance into motherhood.     

A comparative study of determinants of uxorilocal marriage in two counties of China

Abstract

A strictly maintained patrilineal family system makes virilocal marriage almost universal and uxorilocal marriage rare in the history of rural China. Uxorilocal marriage can be divided into two types that may be termed, respectively, contingent and institutional. The former preserves family lineages in families without a son and occurs when uxorilocal marriage is uncommon. The latter serves practical economic purposes in families with sons and occurs when uxorilocal marriage is relatively prevalent. Using data from a survey in two counties of Shaanxi—Lueyang, where both kinds of uxorilocal marriage are prevalent, and Sanyuan, where uxorilocal marriage is rare and usually contingent—this paper employs logistic regression models in a quantitative comparative study of determinants of uxorilocal marriage in rural China. We show that the purposes and prevalence of the two types of uxorilocal marriage differ and that their determinants are also different in the two counties. In Sanyuan, the determinants are only a couple's sibling composition, membership in a large family clan, and educational level. In Lueyang, in addition to those determinants in Sanyuan, important contributions to the type of uxorilocal marriage include a couple's parental marriage type, age at marriage, adoption status, marriage arrangement, and their attitudes toward uxorilocal marriage. The results indicate the potential importance of encouraging uxorilocal marriage in rural areas as a means of mitigating demographic and social problems related to son preference, such as high sex ratio at birth and lack of old‐age security, which are projected for China's future.     

Female Employment Reduces Fertility in Rural Senegal

Economic growth and modernization of society are generally associated with fertility rate decreases but which forces trigger this is unclear. In this paper we assess how fertility changes with increased labor market participation of women in rural Senegal. Evidence from high-income countries suggests that higher female employment rates lead to reduced fertility rates but evidence from developing countries at an early stage of demographic transition is largely absent. We concentrate on a rural area in northern Senegal where a recent boom in horticultural exports has been associated with a sudden increase in female off-farm employment. Using survey data we show that employed women have a significantly higher age at marriage and at first childbirth, and significantly fewer children. As causal identification strategy we use instrumental variable and difference-in-differences estimations, combined with propensity score matching. We find that female employment reduces the number of children per woman by 25%, and that this fertility-reducing effect is as large for poor as for non-poor women and larger for illiterate than for literate women. Results imply that female employment is a strong instrument for empowering rural women, reducing fertility rates and accelerating the demographic transition in poor countries. The effectiveness of family planning programs can increase if targeted to areas where female employment is increasing or to female employees directly because of a higher likelihood to reach women with low-fertility preferences. Our results show that changes in fertility preferences not necessarily result from a cultural evolution but can also be driven by sudden and individual changes in economic opportunities.     

Selection against demographic stochasticity in age-structured populations

It has been shown that differences in fecundity variance can influence the probability of invasion of a genotype in a population; i.e., a genotype with lower variance in offspring number can be favored in finite populations even if it has a somewhat lower mean fitness than a competitor. In this article, Gillespie's results are extended to population genetic systems with explicit age structure, where the demographic variance (variance in growth rate) calculated in the work of Engen and colleagues is used as a generalization of "variance in offspring number" to predict the interaction between deterministic and random forces driving change in allele frequency. By calculating the variance from the life-history parameters, it is shown that selection against variance in the growth rate will favor a genotypes with lower stochasticity in age-specific survival and fertility rates. A diffusion approximation for selection and drift in a population with two genotypes with different life-history matrices (and therefore different mean growth rates and demographic variances) is derived and shown to be consistent with individual-based simulations. It is also argued that for finite populations, perturbation analyses of both the mean and the variance in growth rate may be necessary to determine the sensitivity of fitness to changes in the life-history parameters.     

Demography and evolution of an urban ethnic community: Polish Hill, Pittsburgh.

Polish Hill is an urban, ethnic enclave of approximately 3000 residents residing in a 25-block area of Pittsburgh. This paper documents changes in the fertility, morbidity, and mortality patterns in the community from the turn of the century to the present. The demographic reconstruction is based upon baptismal and marriage records, the administration of demographic proformae and population censuses. The high mortality, morbidity, and fertility variance suggest that the immigrant population has experienced a period of high opportunity for selection in the early 1900's and that Crow's index was gradually reduced to its present level.     

Premarital fertility in Namibia: trends, factors and consequences

Premarital fertility, defined as fertility before first marriage, was found to be highly prevalent in Namibia. According to data from the 1992 and 2000 DHS surveys, the proportion of premarital births was 43% for all births, and 60% for the first birth. This seemed to be primarily due to a late mean age at first marriage (26.4 years) and low levels of contraception before first marriage. Data were analysed using a variety of demographic methods, including multiple decrement life table and multivariate logistic models. Major variations were found by ethno-linguistic groups: Herero and Nama/Damara had the highest levels of premarital fertility (above 60%); Ovambo and Lozi had intermediate levels of premarital fertility (around 40%); Kavongo and San appeared to have kept a more traditional behaviour of early marriage and low levels of premarital fertility (around 20%). The largest ethno-linguistic group, the Ovambo, were in a special situation, with fast increasing age at marriage and average level of premarital fertility. Whites and mixed races also differed, with Afrikaans-speaking groups having a behaviour closer to the average, whereas other Europeans had less premarital fertility despite an average age at marriage. Ethnic differences remained stable after controlling for various socioeconomic factors, such as urbanization, level of education, wealth, access to mass media, and religion. Results are discussed in light of the population dynamics and political history of Namibia in the 20th century.     

Time trends and determinants of completed family size in a rural community from the Basque area of Spain (1800-1969)

The focus of this work is the analysis of changes in completed family size and possible determinants of that size over time, in an attempt to characterize the evolution of reproductive patterns during the demographic transition. With this purpose in mind, time trends are studied in relation to the mean number of live births per family (as an indirect measure of fertility), using family reconstitution techniques to trace the reproductive history of each married woman. The population surveyed is a Spanish rural community called Lanciego, located at the southern end of the province of Alava (Basque Country). A total of 24,510 parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials made between 1800 and 1969 were examined to obtain the demographic data set. For each reconstituted family, the variables included in the study were the number of live births per family or family size (FAMS), year of marriage (YEAR), age at marriage of both partners (AMAN, AWOM), wife's age at the end of marriage (WEND), duration of marriage (MARD), age at first maternity (A1CH), length of reproductive span (REPS) and number of children dying before their first anniversary (MINF). Through a principal component analysis, three factors were found that explained more than 75% of the total variance. Association of variables in factors I and III was particularly useful in characterizing the variability of mean family size in pre-transitional, transitional and post-transitional cohorts. During demographic transition, a decreasing trend is observed in the variables FAMS, REPS and MINF, while variables AWOM, AMAN, WEND and A1CH show a tendency to increase over the 20th century. Results obtained by multiple regression analysis confirm that the best predictors of family size (dependent variable) were REPS and MINF, which between them explained over 85% of the total variation in FAMS (R2 = 0.853). In Lanciego, birth control seems to be present on the evidence of an increase in age at first maternity and a decrease in age at last parturition, indicating that the beginning of the reproductive span is delayed and its end is brought forward. Interaction between family size and infant mortality is discussed in the light of various hypotheses, including replacement of descendants, the so-called biological effect and the theory of r and k selection.     

The demographic basis of population regulation in columbian ground squirrels

Environmental factors influence the dynamics and regulation of biological populations through their influences on demographic variables, but demographic mechanisms of population regulation have received little attention. We investigated the demographic basis of regulation of Columbian ground squirrel (Spermophilus columbianus) populations under natural and experimentally food-supplemented conditions. Food supplementation caused substantial increases in population density, and population densities returned to pretreatment levels when the supplementation ended. Control (untreated) populations remained relatively stable throughout the study period (1981-1986). Because food resources regulated the size of the ground squirrel populations, we used life-table response experiment (LTRE) analyses to examine the demographic basis of changes in population growth rate and thus also demographic influences on population regulation. LTRE analyses of two food-manipulated populations revealed that changes in age at maturity and fertility rate of females generally made the largest contributions to observed changes in population growth rate. Thus, our results suggested that abundance of food resources regulated the size of our study populations through the effects of food resources on age at maturity and fertility rates. Our results also indicated that different demographic mechanisms can underlie population regulation under different environmental conditions, because lower juvenile survival substantially contributed to population decline, but in only one of the populations. Demographic analyses of experimental data, such as those presented here, offer a rigorous and unambiguous means to elucidate the demographic basis of population regulation and to help identify environmental factors that underlie dynamics and regulation of biological populations.     

Milk,Manure, and Muscle Power. Livestock and the Transformation of Preindustrial Agriculture in Central Europe

The process of industrial modernization was characterized by fundamental changes in the interaction of socioeconomic systems with their natural environment. This paper reflects on this transformation process from an ecologically informed perspective, focusing on the interrelation of local populations, their specific mode of production, and the (agro-) ecosystem. Four Austrian villages in different agro-ecological zones serve as case studies for a comparative analysis of different types of farming systems and changes in these systems over time from the early nineteenth century to the present. The paper presents empirical results and aims at contributing to the discussion of relevant topics in human ecology and environmental history. Focusing on the changing significance of livestock in agricultural production systems, it addresses issues including the relation of population density to intensity of land use; soil fertility and nutrient management; the sustainability of preindustrial agriculture; and the gradual opening of locally closed cycles during industrialization and its effect on the landscape.     

A population biological approach to the collective dynamics of countries undergoing demographic transition

Birth rates have been declining in higher-income countries since the middle of the 19th century. A growing number of other countries have entered this demographic transition to lower fertility, as socioeconomic development continues. Analyses of this demographic transition vary widely, but most analyze individual populations in isolation from others, and most come from fields outside the biological sciences. Here, we develop a population biological model of population dynamics in higher-income countries. Individual countries evolve through density-regulated growth, where gradual evolution toward higher population densities boosts productivity (and hence socioeconomic growth) through economics of agglomeration and scale, in turn reducing birth rates. The exchange of technology and capital between countries can further boost productivity gains in any given country, thus contributing to its demographic transition. As a result, countries can down-regulate one another's population growth through mutual improvements in productivity. The model is fitted to time series data on population size, GDP per capita, and birth rates for the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. The metapopulation dynamics are also characterized across a range of parameter values close to the fitted values. This work may help advance population biological approaches to understanding the implications of the fertility demographic transition for modern human populations. This is relevant to developing long-term predictions of the earth's total population size, which must be based upon a model that incorporates underlying mechanisms.     

The impact of labor-saving technology on first birth intervals in rural Ethiopia

Across the developing world labor-saving technologies introduce considerable savings in the time and energy that women allocate to work. Hormonal studies on natural fertility populations indicate that such a reduction in energetic expenditure (rather than improved nutritional status alone) can lead to increased ovarian function. Other qualitative studies have highlighted a link between labor-saving technology and behavioral changes affecting subsequent age at marriage, which may affect fertility. This biodemographic study was designed to investigate whether these physiological and behavioral changes affect fertility at a population level by focusing on a recent water development scheme in Southern Ethiopia. The demographic consequences of a reduction in women's workload following the installation of water points, specifically the variation in length of first birth interval (time lapsed between marriage and first birth), are investigated. First birth interval length is closely associated with lifetime fertility in populations that do not practice contraception, longer intervals being associated with lower fertility. Using life tables and multivariate hazard modeling techniques a number of significant predictors of first birth interval length are identified. Covariates such as age at marriage, season of marriage, village ecology, and access to improved water supply have significant effects on variation in first birth intervals. When entered into models as a time-varying covariate, access to a water tap stand is associated with an immediate reduction in length of first birth intervals.     

Trees,soils, and food security

Trees have a different impact on soil properties than annual crops, because of their longer residence time, larger biomass accumulation, and longer-lasting, more extensive root systems. In natural forests nutrients are efficiently cycled with very small inputs and outputs from the system. In most agricultural systems the opposite happens. Agroforestry encompasses the continuum between these extremes, and emerging hard data is showing that successful agroforestry systems increase nutrient inputs, enhance internal flows, decrease nutrient losses and provide environmental benefits: when the competition for growth resources between the tree and the crop component is well managed. The three main determinants for overcoming rural poverty in Africa are (i) reversing soil fertility depletion, (ii) intensifying and diversifying land use with high-value products, and (iii) providing an enabling policy environment for the smallholder farming sector. Agroforestry practices can improve food production in a sustainable way through their contribution to soil fertility replenishment. The use of organic inputs as a source of biologically-fixed nitrogen, together with deep nitrate that is captured by trees, plays a major role in nitrogen replenishment. The combination of commercial phosphorus fertilizers with available organic resources may be the key to increasing and sustaining phosphorus capital. High-value trees, ''Cinderella'' species, can fit in specific niches on farms, thereby making the system ecologically stable and more rewarding economically, in addition to diversifying and increasing rural incomes and improving food security. In the most heavily populated areas of East Africa, where farm size is extremely small, the number of trees on farms is increasing as farmers seek to reduce labour demands, compatible with the drift of some members of the family into the towns to earn off-farm income. Contrary to the concept that population pressure promotes deforestation, there is evidence that demonstrates that there are conditions under which increasing tree planting is occurring on farms in the tropics through successful agroforestry as human population density increases. <br>