Temperature and precipitation at migratory grounds influence demographic trends of an Arctic‐breeding bird

Anthropogenic climate disruption, including temperature and precipitation regime shifts, has been linked to animal population declines since the mid‐20th century. However, some species, such as Arctic‐breeding geese, have thrived during this period. An increased understanding of how climate disruption might link to demographic rates in thriving species is an important perspective in quantifying the impact of anthropogenic climate disruption on the global state of nature. The Greenland barnacle goose (Branta leucopsis) population has increased tenfold in abundance since the mid‐20th century. A concurrent weather regime shift towards warmer, wetter conditions occurred throughout its range in Greenland (breeding), Ireland and Scotland (wintering) and Iceland (spring and autumn staging). The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between weather and demographic rates of Greenland barnacle geese to discern the role of climate shifts in the population trend. We quantified the relationship between temperature and precipitation and Greenland barnacle goose survival and productivity over a 50 year period from 1968 to 2018. We detected significant positive relationships between warmer, wetter conditions on the Icelandic spring staging grounds and survival. We also detected contrasting relationships between warmer, wetter conditions during autumn staging and survival and productivity, with warm, dry conditions being the most favourable for productivity. Survival increased in the latter part of the study period, supporting the possibility that spring weather regime shifts contributed to the increasing population trend. This may be related to improved forage resources, as warming air temperatures have been shown to improve survival rates in several other Arctic and northern terrestrial herbivorous species through indirect bottom‐up effects on forage availability.     

The onset of spring and timing of migration in two arctic nesting goose populations: the pink‐footed goose Anser bachyrhynchus and the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis

An earlier onset of spring has been recorded for many parts of Eurasia in recent decades. This has consequences for migratory species, both in changing the conditions encountered by individuals on reaching migratory sites and in affecting cues regulating the timing of migration where decisions to migrate are influenced by local environmental variables. Here we examine the timing of spring migration for two arctic goose populations, the pink‐footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus (during 1990–2003) and barnacle goose Branta leucopsis (during 1982–2003), which both breed on Svalbard. The satellite‐derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to express the onset of spring at their wintering and spring staging sites. Pink‐footed geese use several sites during spring migration, ranging from the southernmost wintering areas in Belgium to two spring staging areas in Norway, and distances between sites used along the flyway are relatively short. There was a positive correlation in the onset of spring between neighbouring sites, and the geese migrated earlier in early springs. Barnacle geese, on the other hand, have a long overseas crossing from their wintering grounds in Britain to spring staging areas in Norway. Although spring advanced in both regions, there was no corresponding correlation in the timing of onset of spring between their wintering and spring staging sites, and little evidence for barnacle geese migrating earlier over the whole study period. Hence, where geese can use spring conditions at one site as an indicator of the conditions they might encounter at the next, they have responded quickly to the advancement of spring, whereas in a situation where they cannot predict, they have not yet responded, despite the advancement of spring in the spring staging area.     

Winter Fidelity and Apparent Survival of Lesser Snow Goose Populations in the Pacific Flyway

Abstract The Beringia region of the Arctic contains 2 colonies of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) breeding on Wrangel Island, Russia, and Banks Island, Canada, and wintering in North America. The Wrangel Island population is composed of 2 subpopulations from a sympatric breeding colony but separate wintering areas, whereas the Banks Island population shares a sympatric wintering area in California, USA, with one of the Wrangel Island subpopulations. The Wrangel Island colony represents the last major snow goose population in Russia and has fluctuated considerably since 1970, whereas the Banks Island population has more than doubled. The reasons for these changes are unclear, but hypotheses include independent population demographics (survival and recruitment) and immigration and emigration among breeding or wintering populations. These demographic and movement patterns have important ecological and management implications for understanding goose population structure, harvest of admixed populations, and gene flow among populations with separate breeding or wintering areas. From 1993 to 1996, we neckbanded molting birds at their breeding colonies and resighted birds on the wintering grounds. We used multistate mark-recapture models to evaluate apparent survival rates, resighting rates, winter fidelity, and potential exchange among these populations. We also compared the utility of face stain in Wrangel Island breeding geese as a predictor of their wintering area. Our results showed similar apparent survival rates between subpopulations of Wrangel Island snow geese and lower apparent survival, but higher emigration, for the Banks Island birds. Males had lower apparent survival than females, most likely due to differences in neckband loss. Transition between wintering areas was low (<3%), with equal movement between northern and southern wintering areas for Wrangel Island birds and little evidence of exchange between the Banks and northern Wrangel Island populations. Face staining was an unreliable indicator of wintering area. Our findings suggest that northern and southern Wrangel Island subpopulations should be considered a metapopulation in better understanding and managing Pacific Flyway lesser snow geese. Yet the absence of a strong population connection between Banks Island and Wrangel Island geese suggests that these breeding colonies can be managed as separate but overlapping populations. Additionally, winter population fidelity may be more important in lesser snow geese than in other species, and both breeding and wintering areas are important components of population management for sympatric wintering populations.     

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation,density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population‐dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.     

Forage plants of an Arctic‐nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds,potentially disrupting migration phenology

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen‐rich forage plants, following a “green wave” of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open‐top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0–1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop‐over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen‐rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1–2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.     

The dynamics of landscape change and snow geese in mid-continent North America

The Mid‐Continent Population of the lesser snow goose, which breeds in the eastern and central Canadian Arctic and sub‐Arctic, and winters in the southern United States and northern Mexico has increased 5–7% annually from the late 1960s to the mid‐1990s, largely because of increased survival in response to an agricultural food subsidy. The rise in numbers complements the increased use of nitrogen fertilizers and a corresponding rise in yields of rice, corn, and wheat along the flyways and on the wintering grounds. In sub‐Arctic migration areas and at Arctic breeding colonies, foraging by high numbers of birds has led to loss of coastal vegetation, adverse changes in soil properties and the establishment of an alternative stable state of exposed sediment, which can be detected with LANDSAT imagery. At a local scale, gosling growth, size and survival decreased in affected areas and other taxa have been adversely affected. The food subsidy on wintering and migration areas appears insufficient to meet reproductive demands as foraging in spring continues to occur on southern Hudson Bay staging and nesting areas. The recent introduction of liberal hunting regulations may reduce population size in the near term, but the revegetation of these coastal ecosystems will take decades to achieve. The present pattern of vegetation loss in these Arctic coastal systems is likely to continue in the forseeable future.     

Interactions between land use,habitat use,and population increase in greater snow geese: what are the consequences for natural wetlands?

The North American greater snow goose population has increased dramatically during the last 40 years. We evaluated whether refuge creation, changes in land use on the wintering and staging grounds, and climate warming have contributed to this expansion by affecting the distribution, habitat use, body condition, and migration phenology of birds. We also reviewed the effects of the increasing population on marshes on the wintering grounds, along the migratory routes and on the tundra in summer. Refuges established before 1970 may have contributed to the initial demographic increase. The most important change, however, was the switch from a diet entirely based on marsh plants in spring and winter (rhizomes of Scirpus/Spartina) to one dominated by crops (corn/young grass shoots) during the 1970s and 1980s. Geese now winter further north along the US Atlantic coast, leading to reduced hunting mortality. Their migratory routes now include portions of southwestern Québec where corn production has increased exponentially. Since the mid‐1960s, average temperatures have increased by 1–2.4°C throughout the geographic range of geese, which may have contributed to the northward shift in wintering range and an earlier migration in spring. Access to spilled corn in spring improved fat reserves upon departure for the Arctic and may have contributed to a high fecundity. The population increase has led to intense grazing of natural wetlands used by geese although these habitats are still largely undamaged. The foraging in fields allowed the population to exceed limits imposed by natural marshes in winter and spring, but also prevented permanent damage because of their overgrazing.     

Demographic Parameters of Rural and Urban Adult Resident Canada Geese in Georgia

ABSTRACT In many urban metropolitan areas, resident Canada goose (Branta canadensis) populations have grown to nuisance levels in spite of increasing harvest opportunity. To document differences in demographic parameters between urban and rural geese, I estimated probabilities of survival, recapture, recovery, and fidelity for adult resident Canada geese between 2001 and 2006 using banding, live recapture, and dead recovery data from 2 distinct banding locations in Georgia, USA. Adult survival rates were higher for urban geese (0.958, SE = 0.020) than for rural geese (0.682, SE = 0.049). Using estimated recovery probabilities of 0.505 (SE = 0.107) for urban and 0.463 (SE = 0.045) for rural geese, along with current estimates of crippling loss and reporting rate, the estimated mean harvest rate for urban geese was 0.029 (SE = 0.006) and for rural geese was 0.202 (SE = 0.020). Fidelity rates were similar between urban (0.730, SE = 0.033) and rural geese (0.713, SE = 0.069). This information suggests that urban segments of the Canada goose population have substantially higher survival than rural geese and are harvested at a very low rate, and that liberalizing hunting regulations may have little impact on Georgia's urban goose population. Wildlife managers may need to consider options other than sport hunting to control nuisance goose populations in urban areas.     

Central European Greylag Geese Anser anser show a shortening of migration distance and earlier spring arrival over 60 years

Global climate change can cause pronounced changes in species? migratory behaviour. Numerous recent studies have demonstrated climate‐driven changes in migration distance and spring arrival date in waterbirds, but detailed studies based on long‐term records of individual recapture or re‐sighting events are scarce. Using re‐sighting data from 430 marked individuals spanning a 60‐year period (winters 1956/1957 to 2015/2016), we assessed patterns in migration distance and spring arrival date, wintering‐site fidelity and survival in the increasing central European breeding population of Greylag Geese Anser anser. We demonstrate a long‐term decrease in migration distance, changes in the wintering range caused by winter partial short‐stopping, and the earlier arrival of geese on their breeding grounds. Greylag Geese marked on central Europe moulting grounds have not been recorded wintering in Spain since 1986 or in Tunisia and Algeria since 2004. The migration distance and spring arrival of geese indicated an effect of temperature at the breeding site and values of the NAO index. Greylag Geese migrate shorter distances and arrive earlier in milder winters. We suggest that shifts in the migratory behaviour of Central European Greylag Geese are individual temperature‐dependent decisions to take advantage of wintering grounds becoming more favourable closer to their breeding grounds, allowing birds to acquire breeding territories earlier.     

Effects of agricultural change on abundance, fitness components and distribution of two arctic-nesting goose populations

Intensification of agriculture since the 1950s has enhanced the availability, competitive ability, crude protein content, digestibility and extended growing seasons of forage grasses. Spilled cereal grain also provides a rich food source in autumn and in winter. Long‐distance migratory herbivorous geese have rapidly exploited these feeding opportunities and most species have shown expansions in range and population size in the last 50 years. Results of long‐term studies are presented from two Arctic‐breeding populations, the Svalbard pink‐footed goose and the Greenland white‐fronted goose (GWFG). GWFGs have shown major habitat shifts since the 1950s from winter use of plant storage organs in natural wetlands to feeding on intensively managed farmland. Declines in local density on, and abandonment of, unmodified traditional wintering habitat and increased reproductive success among those birds wintering on farmland suggest that density‐dependent processes were not the cause of the shift in this winter‐site‐faithful population. Based on enhanced nutrient and energy intake rates, we argue that observed shifts in both species from traditionally used natural habitats to intensively managed farmland on spring staging and wintering areas have not necessarily been the result of habitat destruction. Increased food intake rates and potential demographic benefits resulting from shifts to highly profitable foraging opportunities on increasingly intensively managed farmland, more likely explain increases in goose numbers in these populations. The geographically exploratory behaviour of subdominant individuals enables the discovery and exploitation of new winter feeding opportunities and hence range expansion. Recent destruction of traditional habitats and declines in farming at northern latitudes present fresh challenges to the well being of both populations. More urgently, Canada geese colonizing breeding and moulting habitats of white‐fronted geese in Greenland are further affecting their reproductive output.     

Predation Danger Can Explain Changes in Timing of Migration: The Case of the Barnacle Goose

Understanding stopover decisions of long-distance migratory birds is crucial for conservation and management of these species along their migratory flyway. Recently, an increasing number of Barnacle geese breeding in the Russian Arctic have delayed their departure from their wintering site in the Netherlands by approximately one month and have reduced their staging duration at stopover sites in the Baltic accordingly. Consequently, this extended stay increases agricultural damage in the Netherlands. Using a dynamic state variable approach we explored three hypotheses about the underlying causes of these changes in migratory behavior, possibly related to changes in (i) onset of spring, (ii) potential intake rates and (iii) predation danger at wintering and stopover sites. Our simulations showed that the observed advance in onset of spring contradicts the observed delay of departure, whereas both increased predation danger and decreased intake rates in the Baltic can explain the delay. Decreased intake rates are expected as a result of increased competition for food in the growing Barnacle goose population. However, the effect of predation danger in the model was particularly strong, and we hypothesize that Barnacle geese avoid Baltic stopover sites as a response to the rapidly increasing number of avian predators in the area. Therefore, danger should be considered as an important factor influencing Barnacle goose migratory behavior, and receive more attention in empirical studies.     

Keeping up with early springs: rapid range expansion in an avian herbivore incurs a mismatch between reproductive timing and food supply

Within three decades, the barnacle goose population wintering on the European mainland has dramatically increased in numbers and extended its breeding range. The expansion has occurred both within the Arctic as well as by the colonization of temperate areas. Studies of performance of individuals in expanding populations provide information on how well species can adapt to novel environments and global warming. We, therefore, studied the availability of high quality food as well as timing of reproduction, wing moult, fledgling production and postfledging survival of individually marked geese in three recently established populations: one Arctic (Barents Sea) and two temperate (Baltic, North Sea). In the Barents Sea population, timing of hatching was synchronized with the peak in food availability and there was strong stabilizing selection. Although birds in the Baltic and North Sea populations bred 6–7 weeks earlier than Arctic birds, timing of hatching was late in relation to the peak in food availability, and there was moderate to strong directional selection for early breeding. In the Baltic, absolute timing of egg laying advanced considerably over the 20‐year study period, but advanced little relative to spring phenology, and directional selection on lay date increased over time. Wing moult of adults started only 2–4 weeks earlier in the temperate populations than in the Arctic. Synchronization between fledging of young and end of wing moult decreased in the temperate populations. Arctic‐breeding geese may gradually accumulate body stores from the food they encounter during spring migration, which allows them to breed relatively early and their young to use the peak of the Arctic food resources. By contrast, temperate‐breeding birds are not able to acquire adequate body stores from local resources early enough, that is before the quality of food for their young starts to decrease. When global temperatures continue to rise, Arctic‐breeding barnacle geese might encounter similar problems.     

Survival and Recovery Rate of Canada Geese Staging in Interior Alaska

Abstract: Lesser Canada geese (Branta canadensis parvipes) are indistinguishable from other subspecies of small Canada geese on the wintering grounds using current survey methods. Consequently, managers are unable to adequately measure their abundance. Without direct estimates of abundance, researchers often use estimates of vital rates that influence abundance (e.g., annual survival) to monitor potential impact of harvest on the population. Based on capture and re-sighting data records of 567 geese marked from 1994 through 1998, we calculated annual survival and recovery rates for different age and sex classes of white-cheeked geese staging in interior Alaska. We compared those survival and recovery rates with those of other neck-collared white-cheeked geese. The best approximating model allowed survival to vary by age class while holding Seber's recovery probability (r̂) constant over sex, age class, and time. We estimated annual survival to be 0.49 (SE = 0.05) for hatch-year geese and 0.68 (SE = 0.03) for after-hatch-year geese based on the weighted average of all models with a change in Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and lack of fit < 4. Estimates of annual survival of white-cheeked geese in this study are among the lowest and recovery estimates are among the highest for migratory populations of neck-collared geese. Low survival estimates of Canada geese in our study suggest that harvest rates may be higher than in many other populations. Surveys to estimate abundance or other population parameters such as reproductive success and recruitment are necessary to determine whether this population is self-sustaining. Furthermore, we recommend monitoring abundance and harvest of small white-cheeked geese east and west of the Cascade Mountain Range separately to better determine harvest pressure on white-cheeked geese wintering east of the Cascades.     

Northward range expansion in spring‐staging barnacle geese is a response to climate change and population growth,mediated by individual experience

All long‐distance migrants must cope with changing environments, but species differ greatly in how they do so. In some species, individuals might be able to adjust by learning from individual experiences and by copying others. This could greatly speed up the process of adjustment, but evidence from the wild is scarce. Here, we investigated the processes by which a rapidly growing population of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) responded to strong environmental changes on spring‐staging areas in Norway. One area, Helgeland, has been the traditional site. Since the mid‐1990s, an increasing number of geese stage in another area 250 km further north, Vesterålen. We collected data on goose numbers and weather conditions from 1975 to 2017 to explore the extent to which the increase in population size and a warmer climate contributed to this change in staging area use. During the study period, the estimated onset of grass growth advanced on average by 0.54 days/year in each of the two areas. The total production of digestible biomass for barnacle geese during the staging period increased in Vesterålen but remained stable in Helgeland. The goose population has doubled in size during the past 25 years, with most of the growth being accommodated in Vesterålen. The observations suggest that this dramatic increase would not have happened without higher temperatures in Vesterålen. Records of individually marked geese indicate that from the initial years of colonization onwards, especially young geese tended to switch to Vesterålen, thereby predominating in the flocks at Vesterålen. Older birds had a lower probability of switching to Vesterålen, but over the years, the probability increased for all ages. Our findings suggest that barnacle geese integrate socially learned behaviour with adjustments to individual experiences, allowing the population to respond rapidly and accurately to global change.     

Climate change,phenology, and habitat degradation: drivers of gosling body condition and juvenile survival in lesser snow geese

Nesting migratory geese are among the dominant herbivores in (sub) arctic environments, which have undergone unprecedented increases in temperatures and plant growing days over the last three decades. Within these regions, the Hudson Bay Lowlands are home to an overabundant breeding population of lesser snow geese that has dramatically damaged the ecosystem, with cascading effects at multiple trophic levels. In some areas the overabundance of geese has led to a drastic reduction in available forage. In addition, warming of this region has widened the gap between goose migration timing and plant green‐up, and this ‘mismatch’ between goose and plant phenologies could in turn affect gosling development. The dual effects of climate change and habitat quality on gosling body condition and juvenile survival are not known, but are critical for predicting population growth and related degradation of (sub) arctic ecosystems. To address these issues, we used information on female goslings marked and measured between 1978 and 2005 (4125 individuals). Goslings that developed within and near the traditional center of the breeding colony experienced the effects of long‐term habitat degradation: body condition and juvenile survival declined over time. In newly colonized areas, however, we observed the opposite pattern (increase in body condition and juvenile survival). In addition, warmer than average winters and summers resulted in lower gosling body condition and first‐year survival. Too few plant ‘growing days’ in the spring relative to hatch led to similar results. Our assessment indicates that geese are recovering from habitat degradation by moving to newly colonized locales. However, a warmer climate could negatively affect snow goose populations in the long‐run, but it will depend on which seasons warm the fastest. These antagonistic mechanisms will require further study to help predict snow goose population dynamics and manage the trophic cascade they induce.     

Changes in nutrient dynamics of midcontinent greater white-fronted geese during spring migration

Waterfowl and other migratory birds commonly store nutrients at traditional staging areas during spring for later use during migration and reproduction. We investigated nutrient-storage dynamics in the midcontinent population of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons; hereafter white-fronted geese) at spring staging sites in the Rainwater Basin of Nebraska during February–April and in southern Saskatchewan during April–May, 1998 and 1999. In Nebraska, lipid content of white-fronted geese did not increase, and protein content changed little over time for most age and sex categories. In Saskatchewan, lipids increased 11.4 g/day (SE = 1.7) and protein content increased 1.6 g/day (SE = 0.6) in the sample of adult geese collected over a 3-week period. A study conducted during 1979–1980 in the Rainwater Basin reported that white-fronted geese gained 8.8–17.7 g of lipids per day during spring, differing greatly from our results 2 decades later. In addition, lipid levels were less in the 1990s compared to spring 1980 for adult geese nearing departure from staging sites in Saskatchewan. This shift in where geese acquired nutrient stores from Nebraska to more northern staging sites coincided with a decrease in availability of waste corn in Nebraska, their primary food source while staging at that stopover site, and an increase in cultivation of high-energy pulse crops in Saskatchewan. White-fronted geese exhibited flexibility in nutrient dynamics during spring migration, likely in response to landscape-level variation in food availability caused by changes in agricultural trends and practices. Maintaining a wide distribution of wetlands in the Great Plains may allow spring-staging waterfowl to disperse across the region and facilitate access to high-energy foods over a larger cropland base. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Potential for an Arctic‐breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long‐distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway.     

Spring snow goose hunting influences body composition of waterfowl staging in Nebraska

A spring hunt was instituted in North America to reduce abundance of snow geese (Chen caerulescens) by increasing mortality of adults directly, yet disturbance from hunting activities can indirectly influence body condition and ultimately, reproductive success. We estimated effects of hunting disturbance by comparing body composition of snow geese and non-target species, greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) and northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected in portions of south-central Nebraska that were open (eastern Rainwater Basin, ERB) and closed (western Rainwater Basin, WRB; and central Platte River Valley, CPRV) to snow goose hunting during springs 1998 and 1999. Lipid content of 170 snow geese was 25% (57 g) less in areas open to hunting compared to areas closed during hunting season but similar in all areas after hunting was concluded in the ERB. Protein content of snow geese was 3% (14 g) less in the region open to hunting. Greater white-fronted geese had 24% (76 g; n = 129) less lipids in the hunted portion of the study area during hunting season, and this difference persisted after conclusion of hunting season. We found little difference in lipid or protein content of northern pintails in relation to spring hunting. Indirect effects of spring hunting may be considered a collateral benefit regarding efforts to reduce overabundant snow goose populations. Disrupted nutrient storage observed in greater white-fronted geese represents an unintended consequence of spring hunting that has potential to adversely affect reproduction for this and other species of waterbirds staging in the region. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Seasonal Survival of Radiomarked Emperor Geese in Western Alaska

Abstract The population of emperor geese (Chen canagica) in western Alaska, USA, declined by >50% from the 1960s to the mid-1980s and has increased only slightly since. Rates of population increase among arctic geese are especially sensitive to changes in adult survival. Improving adult survival in seasons or geographic areas where survival is low may be the best means of increasing the emperor goose population. We monitored fates of 133 adult female emperor geese that were radiomarked with surgically implanted very high frequency or satellite radiotransmitters from 1999 to 2004 to assess whether monthly survival varied among years, seasons, or geographic areas. Because of uncertainties in determining whether a bird had died based on the radio signal, we analyzed 2 versions of the data. One version used conservative criteria to identify which birds had died based on radio signals and the other used more liberal criteria. In the conservative version of the data we detected 12 mortalities of emperor geese, whereas in the liberal interpretation there were 18 mortalities. In both versions, the models with greatest support indicated that monthly survival varied seasonally and that compared to most seasons estimated monthly survival was lower (φ = 0.95–0.98) in May and August when emperor geese were mainly on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. From 44% to 47% of annual mortality occurred in those months. Estimated monthly survival was higher (φ = 0.98–1.0) from September through March when emperor geese were at autumn staging or wintering areas and in June and July when birds were nesting, rearing broods, or molting. Estimated annual survival was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.77–0.92) in the best-supported model when we used conservative criteria to identify mortalities and 0.79 (95% CI = 0.74–0.85) under the best model using liberal mortality criteria. Lower survival in August and May corresponded to periods when subsistence harvest of emperor geese was likely highest. Managers may be able to most effectively influence population growth rate of emperor geese by reducing subsistence harvest on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in May and August.     

The consequences of climate-driven stop-over sites changes on migration schedules and fitness of Arctic geese

1. How climatic changes affect migratory birds remains difficult to predict because birds use multiple sites in a highly interdependent manner. A better understanding of how conditions along the flyway affect migration and ultimately fitness is of paramount interest. 2. Therefore, we developed a stochastic dynamic model to generate spatially and temporally explicit predictions of stop-over site use. For each site, we varied energy expenditure, onset of spring, intake rate and day-to-day stochasticity independently. We parameterized the model for the migration of pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus from its wintering grounds in Western Europe to its breeding grounds on Arctic Svalbard. 3. Model results suggested that the birds follow a risk-averse strategy by avoiding sites with comparatively high energy expenditure or stochasticity levels in favour of sites with highly predictable food supply and low expenditure. Furthermore, the onset of spring on the stop-over sites had the most pronounced effect on staging times while intake rates had surprisingly little effect. 4. Subsequently, using empirical data, we tested whether observed changes in the onset of spring along the flyway explain the observed changes in migration schedules of pink-footed geese from 1990 to 2004. Model predictions generally agreed well with empirically observed migration patterns, with geese leaving the wintering grounds earlier while considerably extending their staging times in Norway.