Land-Use History as Long-Term Broad-Scale Disturbance: Regional Forest Dynamics in Central New England

Human land-use activities differ from natural disturbance processes and may elicit novel biotic responses and disrupt existing biotic-environmental relationships. The widespread prevalence of land use requires that human activity be addressed as a fundamental ecological process and that lessons from investigations of land-use history be applied to landscape conservation and management. Changes in the intensity of land use and extent of forest cover in New England over the past 3 centuries provide the opportunity to evaluate the nature of forest response and reorganization to such broad-scale disturbance. Using a range of archival data and modern studies, we assessed historical changes in forest vegetation and land use from the Colonial period (early 17th century) to the present across a 5000 km² area in central Massachusetts in order to evaluate the effects of this novel disturbance regime on the structure, composition, and pattern of vegetation and its relationship to regional climatic gradients. At the time of European settlement, the distribution of tree taxa and forest assemblages showed pronounced regional variation and corresponded strongly to climate gradients, especially variation in growing degree days. The dominance of hemlock and northern hardwoods (maple, beech, and birch) in the cooler Central Uplands and oak and hickory at lower elevations in the Connecticut Valley and Eastern Lowlands is consistent with the regional distribution of these taxa and suggests a strong climatic control over broad-scale vegetation patterns. We infer from historical and paleoecological data that intensive natural or aboriginal disturbance was minimal in the Uplands, whereas infrequent surface fires in the Lowlands may have helped to maintain the abundance of central hardwoods and to restrict the abundance of hemlock, beech, and sugar maple in these areas. The modern vegetation is compositionally distinct from Colonial vegetation, exhibits less regional variation in the distribution of tree taxa or forest assemblages defined by tree taxa, and shows little relationship to broad climatic gradients. The homogenization of the vegetation, disruption of vegetation-environment relationships, and formation of new assemblages appear to be the result of (a) a massive, novel disturbance regime; (b) ongoing low-intensity human and natural disturbance throughout the reforestation period to the present; (c) permanent changes in some aspects of the biotic and abiotic environment; and (d) a relatively short period for forest recovery (100–150 years). These factors have maintained the regional abundance of shade intolerant and moderately tolerant taxa (for example, birch, red maple, oak, and pine) and restricted the spread and increase of shade-tolerant, long-lived taxa such as hemlock and beech. These results raise the possibility that historical land use has similarly altered vegetation-environment relationships across broader geographic regions and should be considered in all contemporary studies of global change. Received 5 May 1997; accepted 5 August 1997.     

Post‐fire vegetation and climate dynamics in low‐elevation forests over the last three millennia in Yellowstone National Park

Conifer forests of the western US are historically well adapted to wildfires, but current warming is creating novel disturbance regimes that may fundamentally change future forest dynamics. Stand‐replacing fires can catalyze forest reorganization by providing periodic opportunities for establishment of new tree cohorts that set the stage for stand development for centuries to come. Extensive research on modern and past fires in the Northern Rockies reveals how variations in climate and fire have led to large changes in forest distribution and composition. Unclear, however, is the importance of individual fire episodes in catalyzing change. We used high‐resolution paleoecologic and paleoclimatic data from Crevice Lake (Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA), to explore the role of fire in driving low‐elevation forest dynamics over the last 2820 yr. We addressed two questions: 1) did low‐elevation forests at Crevice Lake experience abrupt community‐level vegetation changes in response to past fire events? 2) Did the interaction of short‐term disturbance events (fire) and long‐term climate change catalyze past shifts in forest composition? Over the last 2820 yr, we found no evidence for abrupt community‐level vegetation transitions at Crevice Lake, and no evidence that an interaction of climate and fire produced changes in the relative abundance of dominant plant taxa. In part, this result reflects limitations of the datasets to detect past event‐specific responses and their causes. Nonetheless, the relative stability of the vegetation to fires over the last 2820 yr provides a local baseline for assessing current and future ecological change. Observations of climate–fire–vegetation dynamics in recent decades suggest that this multi‐millennial‐scale baseline may soon be exceeded.     

Response of subarctic vegetation to transient climatic change on the Seward Peninsula in north-west Alaska

Understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climatic warming is a challenge because of the complex interactions of climate, disturbance, and recruitment across the landscape. We use a spatially explicit model (ALFRESCO) to simulate the transient response of subarctic vegetation to climatic warming on the Seward Peninsula (80 000 km²) in north‐west Alaska. Model calibration efforts showed that fire ignition was less sensitive than fire spread to regional climate (temperature and precipitation). In the model simulations a warming climate led to slightly more fires and much larger fires and expansion of forest into previously treeless tundra. Vegetation and fire regime continued to change for centuries after cessation of the simulated climate warming. Flammability increased rapidly in direct response to climate warming and more gradually in response to climate‐induced vegetation change. In the simulations warming caused as much as a 228% increase in the total area burned per decade, leading to an increasingly early successional and more homogenous deciduous forest‐dominated landscape. A single transient 40‐y drought led to the development of a novel grassland–steppe ecosystem that persisted indefinitely and caused permanent increases in fires in both the grassland and adjacent vegetation. These simulated changes in vegetation and disturbance dynamics under a warming climate have important implications for regional carbon budgets and biotic feedbacks to regional climate.     

Is climate an important driver of post‐European vegetation change in the Eastern United States?

Many ecological phenomena combine to direct vegetation trends over time, with climate and disturbance playing prominent roles. To help decipher their relative importance during Euro‐American times, we employed a unique approach whereby tree species/genera were partitioned into temperature, shade tolerance, and pyrogenicity classes and applied to comparative tree‐census data. Our megadata analysis of 190 datasets determined the relative impacts of climate vs. altered disturbance regimes for various biomes across the eastern United States. As the Euro‐American period (ca. 1500 to today) spans two major climatic periods, from Little Ice Age to the Anthropocene, vegetation changes consistent with warming were expected. In most cases, however, European disturbance overrode regional climate, but in a manner that varied across the Tension Zone Line. To the north, intensive and expansive early European disturbance resulted in the ubiquitous loss of conifers and large increases of Acer, Populus, and Quercus in northern hardwoods, whereas to the south, these disturbances perpetuated the dominance of Quercus in central hardwoods. Acer increases and associated mesophication in Quercus‐Pinus systems were delayed until mid 20th century fire suppression. This led to significant warm to cool shifts in temperature class where cool‐adapted Acer saccharum increased and temperature neutral changes where warm‐adapted Acer rubrum increased. In both cases, these shifts were attributed to fire suppression rather than climate change. Because mesophication is ongoing, eastern US forests formed during the catastrophic disturbance era followed by fire suppression will remain in climate disequilibrium into the foreseeable future. Overall, the results of our study suggest that altered disturbance regimes rather than climate had the greatest influence on vegetation composition and dynamics in the eastern United States over multiple centuries. Land‐use change often trumped or negated the impacts of warming climate, and needs greater recognition in climate change discussions, scenarios, and model interpretations.     

Simulated Importance of Dispersal,Disturbance, and Landscape History in Long-Term Ecosystem Change in the Big Woods of Minnesota

Dynamic relationships among climate, disturbance, and vegetation affect the spatial configuration and composition of ecological communities. Paleoecological records indicate the importance of such relationships in Minnesota’s Big Woods (BW) region, where isolated hardwood forest populations expanded to regional dominance after AD 1250. We used LANDIS-II to model the BW forest expansion, and conducted simulation experiments that isolated the important ecological factors in this regional change. In our simulations, BW forest expanded at approximately 15 m per year to achieve regional dominance within 600 years, which is comparable to empirical records. The distribution of the BW depended on the locations of scattered pre-existing tree populations that were sheltered from previous severe fire regimes by firebreaks. During the simulated spread of the tree populations, however, the presence or absence of firebreaks did not further influence vegetation pattern. When we assumed a fire rotation of 10–13 years in grasslands/woodlands and more than 400 years in BW, the feedback between fire-resistant BW fuels and fire severity caused fire severity to decline in a time frame consistent with sedimentary data. In our simulations, seed dispersal from core initial populations caused forest expansion, changed fuel loads, and thus reduced fire severity—not the other way around as has been commonly proposed. Forest expansion was slowed by fire, but species’ life history attributes, namely seed dispersal distances and maturity ages, asynchronous successional dynamics across many stands, and landscape history were at least as important in the temporal and spatial patterns of the regional response to climate change.     

Tropical montane forest ecotones: climate gradients, natural disturbance, and vegetation zonation in the Cordillera Central, Dominican Republic

Aim We examined relationships between climate–disturbance gradients and patterns of vegetation zonation and ecotones on a subtropical mountain range. Location The study was conducted on the windward slopes of the Cordillera Central, Dominican Republic, where cloud forest appears to shift in a narrow ecotone to monodominant forest of Pinus occidentalis. Methods Climate, disturbance and vegetation data were collected over the elevation range 1100–3100 m and in 50 paired plots along the ecotone. Aerial photographs were georeferenced to a high‐resolution digital elevation model in order to enable the analysis of landscape‐scale patterns of the ecotone. Results A Shipley–Keddy test detected discrete compositional ecotones at 2200 and 2500 m; the distributions of tree species at lower elevations were continuous. The elevation of the ecotone determined with aerial photographs was fairly consistent, namely ± 164 m (SD) over its 124‐km length, but it exhibited significant landscape variation, occurring at a lower elevation in a partially leeward, western zone. The ecotone also occurred significantly lower on ridges than it did in drainage gullies. Ecotone forest structure and composition differed markedly between paired plots. In pine paired plots, the canopy height was 1.7 times higher and the basal area of non‐pine species was 6 times lower than in the cloud forest directly below. Fire evidence was ubiquitous in the pine forest but rare in the abutting cloud forest. Mesoclimate changed discontinuously around the elevation of the ecotone: humidity and cloud formation decreased markedly, and frost frequency increased exponentially. Main conclusions The discreteness of the ecotone was produced primarily by fire. The elevational consistency of the ecotone, however, resulted from the overarching influence of mesoclimate on the elevational patterns of fire occurrence. Declining temperature and precipitation combine with the trade‐wind inversion to create a narrow zone where high‐elevation fires extinguish, enabling fire‐sensitive and fire‐tolerant taxa to abut. Once established, mesotopography and contrasting vegetation physiognomy probably reinforce this boundary through feedbacks on microenvironment and fire likelihood. The prominence of the pine in this study – and of temperate and fire‐tolerant taxa in subtropical montane forests in general – highlights the importance of climate‐disturbance–biogeography interactions in ecotone formation, particularly where fire mediates a dynamic between climate and vegetation.     

Functional traits and climate drive interspecific differences in disturbance-induced tree mortality

With climate change, natural disturbances such as storm or fire are reshuffled, inducing pervasive shifts in forest dynamics. To predict how it will impact forest structure and composition, it is crucial to understand how tree species differ in their sensitivity to disturbances. In this study, we investigated how functional traits and species mean climate affect their sensitivity to disturbances while controlling for tree size and stand structure. With data on 130,594 trees located on 7617 plots that were disturbed by storm, fire, snow, biotic or other disturbances from the French, Spanish, and Finnish National Forest Inventory, we modeled annual mortality probability for 40 European tree species as a function of tree size, dominance status, disturbance type, and intensity. We tested the correlation of our estimated species probability of disturbance mortality with their traits and their mean climate niches. We found that different trait combinations controlled species sensitivity to disturbances. Storm-sensitive species had a high height-dbh ratio, low wood density and high maximum growth, while fire-sensitive species had low bark thickness and high P50. Species from warmer and drier climates, where fires are more frequent, were more resistant to fire. The ranking in disturbance sensitivity between species was overall consistent across disturbance types. Productive conifer species were the most disturbance sensitive, while Mediterranean oaks were the least disturbance sensitive. Our study identified key relations between species functional traits and disturbance sensitivity, that allows more reliable predictions of how changing climate and disturbance regimes will impact future forest structure and species composition at large spatial scales.     

Climate change,woodpeckers, and forests: Current trends and future modeling needs

The structure and composition of forest ecosystems are expected to shift with climate‐induced changes in precipitation, temperature, fire, carbon mitigation strategies, and biological disturbance. These factors are likely to have biodiversity implications. However, climate‐driven forest ecosystem models used to predict changes to forest structure and composition are not coupled to models used to predict changes to biodiversity. We proposed integrating woodpecker response (biodiversity indicator) with forest ecosystem models. Woodpeckers are a good indicator species of forest ecosystem dynamics, because they are ecologically constrained by landscape‐scale forest components, such as composition, structure, disturbance regimes, and management activities. In addition, they are correlated with forest avifauna community diversity. In this study, we explore integrating woodpecker and forest ecosystem climate models. We review climate–woodpecker models and compare the predicted responses to observed climate‐induced changes. We identify inconsistencies between observed and predicted responses, explore the modeling causes, and identify the models pertinent to integration that address the inconsistencies. We found that predictions in the short term are not in agreement with observed trends for 7 of 15 evaluated species. Because niche constraints associated with woodpeckers are a result of complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and disturbance, we hypothesize that the lack of adequate representation of these processes in the current broad‐scale climate–woodpecker models results in model–data mismatch. As a first step toward improvement, we suggest a conceptual model of climate–woodpecker–forest modeling for integration. The integration model provides climate‐driven forest ecosystem modeling with a measure of biodiversity while retaining the feedback between climate and vegetation in woodpecker climate change modeling.     

Fire severity mediates climate‐driven shifts in understorey community composition of black spruce stands of interior Alaska

Question: How do pre‐fire conditions (community composition and environmental characteristics) and climate‐driven disturbance characteristics (fire severity) affect post‐fire community composition in black spruce stands? Location: Northern boreal forest, interior Alaska. Methods: We compared plant community composition and environmental stand characteristics in 14 black spruce stands before and after multiple, naturally occurring wildfires. We used a combination of vegetation table sorting, univariate (ANOVA, paired t‐tests), and multivariate (detrended correspondence analysis) statistics to determine the impact of fire severity and site moisture on community composition, dominant species and growth forms. Results: Severe wildfires caused a 50% reduction in number of plant species in our study sites. The largest species loss, and therefore the greatest change in species composition, occurred in severely burned sites. This was due mostly to loss of non‐vascular species (mosses and lichens) and evergreen shrubs. New species recruited most abundantly to severely burned sites, contributing to high species turnover on these sites. As well as the strong effect of fire severity, pre‐fire and post‐fire mineral soil pH had an effect on post‐fire vegetation patterns, suggesting a legacy effect of site acidity. In contrast, pre‐fire site moisture, which was a strong determinant of pre‐fire community composition, showed no relationship with post‐fire community composition. Site moisture was altered by fire, due to changes in permafrost, and therefore post‐fire site moisture overrode pre‐fire site moisture as a strong correlate. Conclusions: In the rapidly warming climate of interior Alaska, changes in fire severity had more effect on post‐fire community composition than did environmental factors (moisture and pH) that govern landscape patterns of unburned vegetation. This suggests that climate change effects on future community composition of black spruce forests may be mediated more strongly by fire severity than by current landscape patterns. Hence, models that represent the effects of climate change on boreal forests could improve their accuracy by including dynamic responses to fire disturbance.     

Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon

There is increasing consensus that the global climate will continue to warm over the next century. The biodiversity-rich Amazon forest is a region of growing concern because many global climate model (GCM) scenarios of climate change forecast reduced precipitation and, in some cases, coupled vegetation models predict dieback of the forest. To date, fires have generally been spatially co-located with road networks and associated human land use because almost all fires in this region are anthropogenic in origin. Climate change, if severe enough, could alter this situation, potentially changing the fire regime to one of increased fire frequency and severity for vast portions of the Amazon forest. High moisture contents and dense canopies have historically made Amazonian forests extremely resistant to fire spread. Climate will affect the fire situation in the Amazon directly, through changes in temperature and precipitation, and indirectly, through climate-forced changes in vegetation composition and structure. The frequency of drought will be a prime determinant of both how often forest fires occur and how extensive they become. Fire risk management needs to take into account landscape configuration, land cover types and forest disturbance history as well as climate and weather. Maintaining large blocks of unsettled forest is critical for managing landscape level fire in the Amazon. The Amazon has resisted previous climate changes and should adapt to future climates as well if landscapes can be managed to maintain natural fire regimes in the majority of forest remnants.     

1200 years of fire and vegetation history in the Willamette Valley, Oregon and Washington, reconstructed using high-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen analysis

High-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen analyses were used to reconstruct the fire and vegetation history of the Willamette Valley for the last 1200 years. Presented in this paper are three new paleoecological reconstructions from Lake Oswego, Porter Lake, and Warner Lake, Oregon, and portions of previous reconstructions from Battle Ground Lake, Washington, and Beaver Lake, Oregon. The reconstructions show that prior to Euro-American settlement vegetation and fire regimes were influenced by a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. Battle Ground Lake shows a stronger influence from climate, while Lake Oswego, Beaver Lake, Porter Lake, and Warner Lake were more controlled by human activity. However, human-set fires were also modulated by regional climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. Fire reconstructions from Battle Ground Lake, Lake Oswego, Beaver Lake, and Porter Lake imply that fires were infrequent in the Willamette Valley 200-300 years prior to Euro-American settlement. The decline of Native American populations due to introduced disease may have led to this reduction in fire activity. The prehistoric record from Warner Lake, however, indicates that fires in the foothills of the Cascade Range were more frequent than on the valley floor, at least until ca. AD 1800. The historic portions of the reconstructions indicate that Euro-American land clearance for agriculture and logging produced the most dramatic shifts in vegetation and fire regimes. All five records indicate that few fires in the Willamette Valley have occurred since ca. AD 1930, and fires today are predominantly grass fires.     

Spatial Controls of Pre–Euro-American Wind and Fire Disturbance in Northern Wisconsin (USA) Forest Landscapes

We elucidate spatial controls of wind and fire disturbance across northern Wisconsin (USA), where climatic and topographic gradients are not strong, using data from the original US Public Land Survey (PLS) notes. These records contain information on the location and extent of heavy windthrows and stand-replacing fires prior to Euro-American settlement. The spatial patterns of windthrow and fire were spatially clustered at all scales in this historical environment, with stronger associations at local than regional scales. Logistic regression shows environmental variables to have a strong influence on this pattern. In the case of heavy windthrow, environmental drivers of disturbance pattern are fairly consistent across the region. The effects of climate and vegetation are predominant at all scales, but effects are often indirect, with strong interactions between them. Interactions between these two drivers and soil characteristics are also sometimes present. In contrast, models of stand-replacing fire show simple and direct control within and across fire-prone landscapes of historical northern Wisconsin, with climate and physiography as the main factors explaining the distribution of fire disturbance. This simple and direct control is lost at the regional scale, where climate, physiographic, soil, and vegetation variables, along with interactions between them, are significant factors. Contrary to other regions, the topographic effects are generally not important in predicting either wind or fire disturbance. Our work suggests that, in landscapes that lack strong environmental patterning, climate maintains its role as a primary driver of these natural disturbances, but topography is replaced by interactions and feedbacks with other forms of environmental heterogeneity.     

Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long-term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of >170,000 records of ground-based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m³ of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70-year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under-reporting, especially of small-scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m³/year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long-term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes.     

Understory Vegetation Dynamics of North American Boreal Forests

Understory vegetation is the most diverse and least understood component of North American boreal forests. Understory communities are important as they act as drivers of overstory succession and nutrient cycling. The objective of this review was to examine how understory vegetation abundance, composition, and diversity change with stand development after a major stand replacing disturbance. Understory vegetation abundance and diversity increase rapidly after fire, in response to abundant resources and an influx of disturbance adapted species. The highest diversity occurs within the first 40 years following fire, and declines indefinitely thereafter as a result of decreasing productivity and increased dominance of a small number of late successional feather mosses and woody plant species. Vascular plant and bryophyte/lichen communities undergo very different successional changes. Vascular plant communities are dynamic and change more dramatically with time after fire, whereas bryophyte and lichen communities are much slower to establish and change over time. Considerable variations in these processes exist depending on canopy composition, site condition, regional climate, and frequently occurring non-stand-replacing disturbances. Forest management practices represent a unique disturbance process and can result in different understory vegetation communities from those observed for natural processes, with potential implications for overstory succession and long-term productivity. Because of the importance of understory vegetation on nutrient cycling and overstory composition, post-harvest treatments emulating stand-replacing fire are required to maintain understory diversity, composition, and promote stand productivity in boreal forests.     

Fire history and vegetation recovery in two raised bogs at the Baltic Sea

Questions: What were the bog fire patterns and frequencies in two boreal peatlands during the last 5000 years? What is the nature and time‐scale of post‐fire vegetation successions? Were fire events related to climate? Location: Männikjärve bog, central east Estonia; Kontolanrahka bog, southwest Finland. Methods: Macroscopic charcoal, plant macrofossils and radiocarbon dating were examined. Redundancy analysis was used in the assessments. Results: During the last 5000 years, both of the above peatlands have experienced several fire events. A typical pre‐fire vegetation community consisted of dry hummock Sphagnum spp., often accompanied by Calluna vulgaris. Only the most severe occasional fires resulted in a dramatic change in the vegetation composition. In these cases, a wet shift occurred, where the pre‐fire hummock community was replaced by a wet hollow community. Calluna vulgaris was found to be a key species in both pre‐ and post‐fire vegetation dynamics. The recovery time of dry microtopes following severe combustion and the subsequent hydrological change could take up to 350 years. Even after a long‐lasting wet phase, the post‐fire disturbance succession led towards a dry hummock community. Conclusions: Fire succession appeared to be cyclic, starting as and developing towards a dry hummock community. Fires have been a regular phenomenon in boreal bogs, even in regions with rather low human impact. The fire history records did not indicate any direct link to the regional long‐term climate.     

Late holocene human impact on two coastal environments in New South Wales,Australia: a comparison of Aboriginal and European impacts

There are few historical analyses quantifying impacts of human activity in Australia. This paper compares vegetation change, fire regime, erosion and eutrophication rates between the European period and the recent prehistoric past in two lake systems on the south coast of New South Wales. The variance in pollen abundance and hence species population changes increased markedly in the historical period, especially amongst understorey taxa, and this could be related to changes in the local fire regimes and to the effects of grazing. Local fire activity decreased from the prehistorical period at both sites. Erosion rates increased in the historical period and both organic and inorganic components were deposited in the lakes. Erosion episodes could be related to fire during some periods but are clearly controlled by forest disturbance and land-use at other periods. The trophic status of the lakes was increasing from before European settlement but accelerated in the recent past. This was in part due to the increased erosion rates and in part due to fertiliser application. The results suggest that lower rates of erosional and eutrophic change occur in catchments with basaltic than with Holocene sand substrata.     

Scale matters: fire–vegetation feedbacks are needed to explain tropical tree cover at the local scale

At a broad (regional to global) spatial scale, tropical vegetation is controlled by climate; at the local scale, it is believed to be determined by interactions between disturbance, vegetation and local conditions (soil and topography) through feedback processes. It has recently been suggested that strong fire–vegetation feedback processes may not be needed to explain tree‐cover patterns in tropical ecosystems and that climate–fire determinism is an alternative possibility. This conclusion was based on the fact that it is possible to reproduce observed patterns in tropical regions (e.g. a trimodal frequency distribution of tree cover) using a simple model that does not explicitly incorporate fire–vegetation feedback processes. We argue that these two mechanisms (feedbacks versus fire–climate control) operate at different spatial and temporal scales; it is not possible to evaluate the role of a process acting at fine scales (e.g. fire–vegetation feedbacks) using a model designed to reproduce regional‐scale pattern (scale mismatch). While the distributions of forest and savannas are partially determined by climate, many studies are providing evidence that the most parsimonious explanation for their environmental overlaps is the existence of feedback processes. Climate is unlikely to be an alternative to feedback processes; rather, climate and fire–vegetation feedbacks are complementary processes at different spatial and temporal scales.     

Late‐Holocene fire history in a forest‐grassland mosaic in southern Brasil: Implications for conservation

Question: Is the diverse mosaic of forest/grassland (Campos) vegetation on the hills in the Porto Alegre region natural or of anthropogenic origin? What are the best approaches to management and conservation of forest/grassland mosaics in southern Brazil? Location: 280 m a.s.l., Rio Grande do Sul State (30°04′32″S; 51°06′05″W, southern Brazil. Methods: A 50-cm long radiocarbon dated sediment core from a swamp on Morro Santana was analysed for pollen and charcoal, and multivariate data analysis was used to reconstruct past vegetation and fire dynamics. Results: The formation of swamp deposits is related to a change to wetter climatic conditions since 1230 cal yr BP. The diverse forest/grassland mosaic existed already at that time and can be seen as natural in origin as it has been also shown from other studies in southern Brazil. Since 580 cal yr BP, forests expanded continuously. The marked higher occurrence of the pioneer Myrsine during the last 70 years, indicates a change in the disturbance regime. In the past, vegetation has been influenced by mostly anthropogenic fire, set first by Amerindians and later by European settlers. Conclusions: Management for conservation of forest/grassland mosaics should take into account, first, that grasslands are remnants of earlier drier Holocene periods and not a result of deforestation and, second, the history of disturbance by grazing and fire. Suppression of grazing and burning has likely resulted in a trend towards more woody vegetation under modern wet climatic conditions. If management for conservation excludes fire, the present grassland patches will tend to disappear due to forest expansion under the modern humid climate. Maintaining or reintroducing cattle grazing in conservation areas could be an alternative to fire.     

气候变化、林火和营林措施对寒温带典型森林生态弹性的影响

生态弹性是森林生态系统在遭受外在扰动后恢复到稳定状态的能力,是森林资源可持续发展的重要目标之一,且森林生态弹性对诸如气候变化、林火和营林措施等外部因子的影响较为敏感.探究这些外部因子对森林生态弹性的影响在未来森林生态系统管理方面有重要意义.本研究首先从森林组成、结构和功能等方面选取指标因子并估算了森林生态弹性值,然后运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化、林火干扰和营林措施等对寒温带典型森林生态弹性的影响,并探讨了当前抚育采伐方案在未来气候下的可持续性.结果表明: 模型初始化的2000年林分密度和胸高断面积与2000年真实景观较为吻合,模拟的2010年森林景观与野外调查数据无明显差异,基于当前林火干扰状况的模拟结果与火烧迹地调查数据基本匹配,说明林火模块能很好地模拟当前研究区林火发生状况.林火干扰增加30%将会使该区模拟期内景观水平上森林生态弹性提高15.7%～40.8%,而林火干扰增加200%则会降低该区4.4%～24.6%的森林生态弹性.短期和中期林火干扰增加对森林生态弹性的影响大于气候变化的影响.与当前预案相比,B1气候(林火增加30%预案)和A2气候(林火增加200%预案)对整个模拟阶段景观尺度森林生态弹性的影响分别处于-15.9%～38.9%和-60.4%～34.8%范围内.与无采伐预案相比,B1和A2气候下在整个模拟时期内若继续实施当前抚育采伐方案,将不利于景观水平森林生态弹性的提高.在B1气候(林火增加30%预案)下,在各模拟时期内无需实施任何营林措施;而在A2气候(林火增加200%预案)下,建议实施中、高强度种植的营林措施以提升景观水平森林生态弹性.     

Alternative stable equilibria and critical thresholds created by fire regimes and plant responses in a fire‐prone community

Wildfire is a dominant disturbance in many ecosystems, and fire frequency and intensity are being altered as climates change. Through effects on mortality and regeneration, fire affects plant community composition, species richness, and carbon cycling. In some regions, changes to fire regimes could result in critical, non‐reversible transitions from forest to non‐forested states. For example, the Klamath ecoregion (northwest United States) supports extensive conifer forests that are initially replaced by hardwood chaparral following high‐severity fire, but eventually return to conifer forest during the fire‐free periods. Climate change alters both the fire regime and post‐fire recovery dynamics, potentially causing shrubland to persist as a stable (i.e. self‐renewing) vegetation stage, rather than an ephemeral stage. Here, we present a theoretical investigation of how changes in plant traits and fire regimes can alter the stability of communities in forest‐shrub systems such as the Klamath. Our model captures the key characteristics of the system, including life‐stage‐specific responses to disturbance and asymmetrical competitive interactions. We assess vegetation stability via invasion analysis, and conclude that portions of the landscape that are currently forested also can be stable as shrubland. We identify parameter thresholds where community equilibria change from stable to unstable, and show how these thresholds may shift in response to changes in life‐history or environmental parameters. For instance, conifer maturation rates are expected to decrease as aridity increases under climate change, and our model shows that this reduction decreases the fire frequencies at which forests become unstable. Increases in fire activity sufficient to destabilize forest communities are likely to occur in more arid future climates. If widespread, this would result in reduced carbon stocks and a positive feedback to climate change. Changes in stability may be altered by management practices.