东北有机及常规大豆对环境影响的生命周期评价

选择我国主要有机出口农产品之一——大豆作为研究对象,采用生命周期评价、DNDC模型、实地调研等方法建立大豆生命周期资源消耗和环境排放清单,分析比较了出口型有机大豆、国内消费型有机大豆以及国内消费型常规大豆的生命周期环境影响.结果表明:3种不同生产消费型大豆生命周期中资源消耗、酸化以及全球变暖对综合环境影响贡献最明显,基本上占到综合环境影响评价的30％左右,而富营养化和生态毒性的贡献率较低,小于10％.从生命周期的不同阶段分析,3种消费模式的大豆其运输阶段对于各分类环境影响的贡献率最大,都在50％以上,对资源消耗的贡献率更是在80％以上.从2种不同的生产模式看无论是全球变暖、酸化、资源消耗还是生态毒性都是有机大豆的环境影响综合指数小于常规大豆,对环境产生的负面影响较小.综合比较3种不同生产消费型大豆,国内消费的有机大豆生命周期综合环境影响最小,其环境影响综合指数比常规大豆的减少31％.但是出口有机大豆由于出口使运输距离延长,其生命周期综合环境影响最大.因此,环境管理关键是提倡有机产品本地消费以缩短运输距离,或者采用环保型能源以减少环境排放.     

Time-varying coefficient models for the analysis of air pollution and health outcome data

In this article a time-varying coefficient model is developed to examine the relationship between adverse health and short-term (acute) exposure to air pollution. This model allows the relative risk to evolve over time, which may be due to an interaction with temperature, or from a change in the composition of pollutants, such as particulate matter, over time. The model produces a smooth estimate of these time-varying effects, which are not constrained to follow a fixed parametric form set by the investigator. Instead, the shape is estimated from the data using penalized natural cubic splines. Poisson regression models, using both quasi-likelihood and Bayesian techniques, are developed, with estimation performed using an iteratively re-weighted least squares procedure and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, respectively. The efficacy of the methods to estimate different types of time-varying effects are assessed via a simulation study, and the models are then applied to data from four cities that were part of the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study.     

A Risk-Based Approach to Health Impact Assessment for Input-Output Analysis, Part 2: Case Study of Insulation (8 pp)

Goal, Scope and Background In the first part of this paper, we developed a methodology to incorporate exposure and risk concepts into life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). We argued that both risk assessment and LCIA are needed to consider the impacts of increasing insulation for single-family homes in the US from current practice to the levels recommended by the 2000 International Energy Conservation Codes. In this analysis, we apply our model to the insulation case study and evaluate the benefits and costs of increased insulation for new housing. Results and Discussion The central estimate of impacts from the complete insulation manufacturing supply chain is approximately 14 premature deaths, 400 asthma attacks, and 7000 restricted activity days nationwide for one year of increased fiberglass output. Of the health impacts associated with increased insulation manufacturing, 83% is attributable to the supply chain emissions from the mineral wool industry, which is mostly associated with the direct primary PM2.5 emissions from the industry (98%). Reduced energy consumption leads to 1.2 premature deaths, 33 asthma attacks, and 600 restricted activity days avoided per year, indicating a public health “payback period” on the order of 11 years. Over 90% of these benefits were associated with direct emissions from power plants and residential combustion sources. In total, the net present value of economic benefits over a 50-year period for a single-year cohort of new homes is $190 million with a 5% discount rate, with 49 fewer premature deaths in this period. Conclusion Recommendation and Outlook. We have developed and applied a risk-based model to quantify the public health costs and benefits of increased insulation in new single-family homes in the US, demonstrating positive net economic and public health benefits within the lifetimes of the homes. More broadly, we demonstrated that it is feasible to incorporate exposure and risk concepts into I-O LCA, relying on regression-based intake fractions followed by more refined dispersion modeling. The refinement step is recommended especially if primary PM2.5 is an important source of exposure and if stack heights are relatively low. Where secondary PM2.5 is more important, use of regression-based intake fractions would be sufficient for a reasonable risk approximation. Uncertainties in our risk-based model should be carefully considered; nevertheless, our study can help decision-makers evaluate the costs and benefits of demand-side management policy options from a combined public health and life cycle perspective.     

A Risk-Based Approach to Health Impact Assessment for Input-Output Analysis, Part 1: Methodology (7 pp)

Goal, Scope and Background Incorporation of exposure and risk concepts into life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is often impaired by the number of sources and the complexity of site-specific impact assessment, especially when input-output (I-O) analysis is used to evaluate upstream processes. This makes it difficult to interpret LCIA outputs, especially in policy contexts. In this study, we develop an LCIA tool which takes into account the geographical variability in both emissions and exposure and which can be applied to all economic sectors in I-O analysis, relying on screening-level risk calculations and methods to estimate population exposure per unit emissions from specific geographic locations. Methods We develop our analytical approach with reference to the case of increasing insulation for new single-family homes in the US. We quantify the public health costs from increasing insulation manufacturing and compare them with the benefits from energy savings, focusing on mortality and morbidity associated with exposure to primary and secondary fine particles (PM2.5) as well as cancer risk associated with exposure to toxic air pollutants. We use OpenLC to estimate the incremental economic outputs induced by increased insulation and reduced fuel consumption and calculate emissions from a sector-specific pollution intensity matrix. We calculate sector-specific intake fractions (dimensionless ratios between the amount of pollutant intake and the amount of a pollutant emitted) using previously-derived regression models and apply these values to the supply chain emissions of fiberglass and fuel sources. We refine the exposure estimates for selected emission sites and pollutants that contribute significantly to total health impacts, running site-specific air dispersion models. We estimate health impacts using concentration-response functions from the published literature and compare the costs and benefits of the program by assigning monetary values to the health risks. In the second part of this paper, we present the results of our case study and consider the implications for incorporating exposure and risk concepts into I-O LCA.     

Enhancing life cycle impact assessment from climate science: Review of recent findings and recommendations for application to LCA

Since the Global Warming Potential (GWP) was first presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) First Assessment Report, the metric has been scrutinized and alternative metrics have been suggested. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report gives a scientific assessment of the main recent findings from climate metrics research and provides the most up-to-date values for a subset of metrics and time horizons. The objectives of this paper are to perform a systematic review of available midpoint metrics (i.e. using an indicator situated in the middle of the cause-effect chain from emissions to climate change) for well-mixed greenhouse gases and near-term climate forcers based on the current literature, to provide recommendations for the development and use of characterization factors for climate change in life cycle assessment (LCA), and to identify research needs. This work is part of the ‘Global Guidance on Environmental Life Cycle Impact Assessment’ project held by the UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative and is intended to support a consensus finding workshop. In an LCA context, it can make sense to use several complementary metrics that serve different purposes, and from there get an understanding about the robustness of the LCA study to different perspectives and metrics. We propose a step-by-step approach to test the sensitivity of LCA results to different modelling choices and provide recommendations for specific issues such as the consideration of climate-carbon feedbacks and the inclusion of pollutants with cooling effects (negative metric values).     

Basic quantitative risk assessment of light sources: Comparison of light exposure assessment and endpoint life cycle impact assessment

Human Health Area of Protection (HHAoP) has been receiving greater emphasis in recent years in the scope of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of products or services with more impact categories specifically dedicated to include different dimensions of HHAoP. Human health impacts of light sources, however, have received less attention despite their prevalent use for backlighting, general lighting and architectural purposes. Currently, Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) of lighting devices and electronic devices with backlit screens do not address endpoint impacts nor do they specify technical properties of the light that can enable such an assessment. This study investigates endpoint impacts of eleven lighting devices (1) due to light exposure during the use phase and (2) due to emissions throughout their life cycle. Impacts are quantified as disease burden in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY). The burden of exposure was calculated using attributable fraction (AF) method. The burden due to life cycle emissions was quantified using GaBi software and built-in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) method ReCiPe. Endpoint impact categories included were climate change human health, human toxicity, ionizing radiation, ozone depletion, particulate matter formation, and photochemical oxidant formation. The disease burden due to light exposure of all light sources is of two orders of magnitude greater than the disease burden due to life cycle emissions pointing to the need for its treatment.     

Development of damage function for stratospheric ozone layer depletion

The purpose of our study was to develop damage functions due to ozone layer depletion, that related the emission of ozone depleting substances (ODS) to the damage of category endpoints. The ozone layer depletion causes many types of damage such as skin cancer, cataract, adverse effect to crop and plant growth. We assessed the increase of skin cancer incidence risk. The damage function have been developed with connecting the main processes on ozone depletion, emission of ODS, increase of tropospheric ODS, increase of stratospheric ODS, change of total ozone, change of B region ultra-violet (UV-B) at the surface, and the increase of skin cancer incidence. As the result, we could introduce damage functions of melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer incidence for 13 species of ODSs and damage factors based on the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We also compared the DALYs value with the damage factors of Eco-indicator 99 (egalitarian and hierarchic value), and it was found that our result was several ten times as small except methyl bromide. Furthermore, a case study for refrigerator was performed and it showed that shifting to less ozone depleting substances reduced the risk of skin cancer incidence to one-fourteenth in DALYs.     

Data representativeness in LCA: A framework for the systematic assessment of data quality relative to technology characteristics

A shortcoming in current data quality assessment schemes is that the data quality information is not used systematically to identify the critical data in a life cycle inventory (LCI) model. In addition, existing criteria employed to evaluate representativeness lack relevance to the specific context of a study. A novel framework is proposed herein for the evaluation of the representativeness of LCI data, including an analysis of the importance of the data and a modification of quality criteria based on unit process characteristics. Temporal characteristics are analyzed by identifying the technology shift, because data generated before this time are considered outdated. Geographical and technological characteristics are analyzed by defining a “related area” and a “related technology,” which is done by identifying a number of relevant geographical and technical factors, and then comparing the collected data with these factors. The framework was illustrated in a case study on household waste incineration in Denmark. The results demonstrated the applicability of the method in practice, and they provided data quality criteria unique to waste incineration unit processes, for example, different time intervals to evaluate temporal representativeness. However, the proposed method is time demanding, and thus sector‐level characteristic analyses are feasible instead of the user having to do the analyses.     

Environmental Damage Assessment of Carbon Capture and Storage

An end‐point life cycle impact assessment is used to evaluate the damages of electricity generation from fossil fuel‐based power plants with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology. Pulverized coal (PC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants are assessed for carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture, pipeline transport, and storage in a geological formation. Results show that the CCS systems reduce the climate change‐related damages but increase the damages from toxicity, acidification, eutrophication, and resource consumption. Based on the currently available damage calculation methods, it is concluded that the benefit of reducing damage from climate change is larger than the increases in other damage categories, such as health effects from particulates or toxic chemicals. CCS significantly reduces the overall environmental damage, with a net reduction of 60% to 70% in human health damage and 65% to 75% in ecosystem damage. Most of the damage is due to fuel production and combustion processes. The energy and infrastructure demands of CCS cause increases in the depletion of natural resources by 33% for PC, 19% for IGCC, and 18% for NGCC power plants, mostly due to increased fossil fuel consumption.     

Impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health outcomes: an umbrella review of global evidence

The impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health has recently raised strong concerns. However, a comprehensive overview analyzing the existing evidence while addressing relevant biases is lacking. This umbrella review systematically searched the PubMed/Medline, Scopus and PsycINFO databases (up to June 26, 2023) for any systematic review with meta-analysis investigating the association of air pollution or climate change with mental health outcomes. We used the R metaumbrella package to calculate and stratify the credibility of the evidence according to criteria (i.e., convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, or weak) that address several biases, complemented by sensitivity analyses. We included 32 systematic reviews with meta-analysis that examined 284 individual studies and 237 associations of exposures to air pollution or climate change hazards and mental health outcomes. Most associations (n=195, 82.3%) involved air pollution, while the rest (n=42, 17.7%) regarded climate change hazards (mostly focusing on temperature: n=35, 14.8%). Mental health outcomes in most associations (n=185, 78.1%) involved mental disorders, followed by suicidal behavior (n=29, 12.4%), access to mental health care services (n=9, 3.7%), mental disorders-related symptomatology (n=8, 3.3%), and multiple categories together (n=6, 2.5%). Twelve associations (5.0%) achieved convincing (class I) or highly suggestive (class II) evidence. Regarding exposures to air pollution, there was convincing (class I) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to solvents and a higher incidence of dementia or cognitive impairment (odds ratio, OR=1.139), and highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to some pollutants and higher risk for cognitive disorders (higher incidence of dementia with high vs. low levels of carbon monoxide, CO: OR=1.587; higher incidence of vascular dementia per 1 μg/m³ increase of nitrogen oxides, NO_x: hazard ratio, HR=1.004). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between exposure to airborne particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PM₁₀) during the second trimester of pregnancy and the incidence of post-partum depression (OR=1.023 per 1 μg/m³ increase); and for the association between short-term exposure to sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and schizophrenia relapse (risk ratio, RR=1.005 and 1.004 per 1 μg/m³ increase, respectively 5 and 7 days after exposure). Regarding climate change hazards, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased temperature and suicide- or mental disorders-related mortality (RR=1.024), suicidal behavior (RR=1.012), and hospital access (i.e., hospitalization or emergency department visits) due to suicidal behavior or mental disorders (RR=1.011) or mental disorders only (RR=1.009) (RR values per 1°C increase). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased apparent temperature (i.e., the temperature equivalent perceived by humans) and suicidal behavior (RR=1.01 per 1°C increase). Finally, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between the temporal proximity of cyclone exposure and severity of symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (r=0.275). Although most of the above associations were small in magnitude, they extend to the entire world population, and are therefore likely to have a substantial impact. This umbrella review classifies and quantifies for the first time the global negative impacts that air pollution and climate change can exert on mental health, identifying evidence-based targets that can inform future research and population health actions.     

Review of impact categories and environmental indicators for life cycle assessment of geotechnical systems

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has only had limited application in the geotechnical engineering discipline, though it has been widely applied to civil engineering systems such as pavements and roadways. A review of previous geotechnical LCAs showed that most studies have tracked a small set of impact categories, such as energy and global warming potential. Accordingly, currently reported environmental indicators may not effectively or fully capture important environmental impacts and tradeoffs associated with geotechnical systems, including those associated with land and soil resources. This research reviewed previous studies, methods, and models for assessment of land use and soil‐related impacts to understand their applicability to geotechnical LCA. The results of this review show that critical gaps remain in current knowledge and practice. In particular, further development or refinement of environmental indicators, impact categories, and cause–effect pathways is needed as they pertain to geotechnical applications—specifically those related to soil quality, soil functions, and the ecosystem services soils provide. In addition, many existing methods emerge from research on land use and land use change related to other disciplines (e.g., agriculture). For applicability to geotechnical projects, the resolution of many of these methods and resulting indicators need to be downscaled from the landscape/macro scale to the project scale. In the near term, practitioners of geotechnical LCA should begin tracking changes to soil properties and report impacts to land and soil resources qualitatively.     

Development of damage function of acidification for terrestrial ecosystems based on the effect of aluminum toxicity on net primary production

Background  Acidification is one of the important impact categories for life cycle impact assessment. Although its characterization has progressed during this decade through the employment of midpoint approaches, only limited studies of endpoint approaches have been performed. Objective. This study aimed at developing damage function of acidification for terrestrial ecosystems in Japan. Damage function expresses a quantitative relationship between the inventory and endpoint damage. Methods  The geographical boundary was limited in Japan both for emission and impact. In this study, sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (NO and NO₂ collectively mean NO_x), hydrogen chloride (HC1), and ammonia (NH₃) were considered as major causative substances of acidification. Net primary production (NPP) of existing vegetation was adopted as an impact indicator of terrestrial ecosystems. The aluminum toxicity was adopted as the major factor of effect on terrestrial ecosystems due to acidification. The leachate concentration of monomeric inorganic aluminum ions was selected to express the plant toxicity of aluminum. Results and Discussion  The results of damage function gave utilizable factors both for a midpoint approach and an endpoint approach; Atmospheric Deposition Factor (ADF) and Damage Factor (DF) applicable to the former and the latter, respectively. The ADF indicates an increase of H⁺ deposition per unit area to an additional emission of causative sustance. The additional emission corresponds to some alternatives in industry, not the baseline emission. The DF indicates the total NPP damage in all of Japan due to the additional emission of causative substances. The derived NPP damage is on the order of one millionth of the NPP itself. HC1 and NH3 showed larger ADFs and DFs than that of SO₂ and NO_x. The reason was ascribed to the relatively large source-receptor relationships (SRR) of HC1 and NH₃. However, since the method applied to determine the SRR of HC1 and NH₃ has larger uncertainties than that of SO₂ and NO_x, attention is needed to handle the difference. Conclusion  The damage function easily defines the concrete NPP damage due to an additional emission. The impact indica tor, NPP, also has an advantage in its mass unit that is directly summable through the entire impact categories. Expansion of endpoints, such as in aquatic ecosystems, material degradation, human health, and biodiversity aspects of terrestrial ecosystems, is an important subject for future work. Further, uncertain analyses for major parameters will provide helpful information on the reliability of damage function.     

Groundwater quality evaluation using the water quality index (WQI), the synthetic pollution index (SPI), and geospatial tools: a case study of Sujawal district,Pakistan

Abstract

Under changing climate scenario, groundwater aquifers in the coastal areas of Pakistan are under serious threat. Looking at the gravity of the problem, and concerns of the civil society, this study was conducted to evaluate and map the quality of groundwater in the Sujawal district, a coastal area of Pakistan based on the physicochemical analysis of 94 samples using two standard numerical models and geospatial techniques. The WQI model revealed that 2.13%, 6.38%, 55.32%, 22.34%, and 13.83% of water samples were excellent, good, poor, very poor, and unsuitable for drinking purposes. Also, the SPI model identified that 32%, 13.83%, 20.12%, 18.1%, and 15.95% of samples were slightly polluted, moderately polluted, highly polluted, suitable, and unsuitable. Though the model's input is different, the proportionate of ranking revealed a significant correlation (R²=0.78) between the outcomes of both models. Overall, the study revealed that groundwater in most of the areas does not meet WHO guidelines. The prevalence of water-related diseases in the area suggests that groundwater is contaminated and using that water is of high risk for human health. The study highlights the significance of using numerical models and geospatial techniques for water quality evaluation in the coastal areas of the world.     

Evaluating options in LCA: The emergence of conflicting paradigms for impact assessment and evaluation

LCA aims to help direct decisions in an environmentally sustainable direction. It indicates the environmental effects of choices and evaluates these against this background. Approaches to evaluation in LCA differ substantially, related to the way of modelling environmental effects and to the way these effects are combined into an overall judgement on alternative options. Several approaches are now operational, which are linked to different paradigms in decision making. It is shown that the choice of paradigm is quite decisive on the outcome of the analysis. Also within similar paradigms, different methods now operational may lead to different outcomes. These latter differences may be alleviated more easily than those related to paradigmatic choices, as they are partly a matter of refinement, and they partly result from legitimate differences in subjective priorities. The more basic paradigmatic differences can hardly be bridged. The practical relevancy of the subject is proven by applying different operational methods to one case, showing widely differing outcomes. The paradigm behind evaluating environmental effects is either values based, directly or through policy decisions, or economics based, as individual preferences measured in the monetary terms of willingness-to-pay. Accordingly, the different methods are “policy-oriented” or “monetary”. It may be doubted if the differences between these can be overcome in standardisation.     

Impacts of biogenic CO2 emissions on human health and terrestrial ecosystems: the case of increased wood extraction for bioenergy production on a global scale

Biofuels are a potentially important source of energy for our society. Common practice in life cycle assessment (LCA) of bioenergy has been to assume that any carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission related to biomass combustion equals the amount absorbed in biomass, thus assuming no climate change impacts. Recent developments show the significance of contributions of biogenic CO₂ emissions during the time they stay in the atmosphere. The goal of this article is to develop a global, spatially explicit method to quantify the potential impact on human health and terrestrial ecosystems of biogenic carbon emissions coming from forest wood extraction for biofuel production. For this purpose, changes in aboveground carbon stock (ΔC_forest) due to an increase in wood extraction via changes in rotation time are simulated worldwide with a 0.5° × 0.5° grid resolution. Our results show that both impacts and benefits can be obtained. When the extraction increase is reached by creating a longer rotation time, new growth is allowed resulting in carbon benefits. In a case study, we assessed the life cycle impacts of heat production via wood to determine the significance of including biogenic CO₂ emissions due to changes in forest management. Impacts of biogenic CO₂ dominate the total climate change impacts from a wood stove. Depending on the wood source country, climate change impacts due to heat production from wood either have an important share in the overall impacts on human health and terrestrial ecosystems, or allow for a large additional CO₂ sink.     

Energy and greenhouse gas balance of bioenergy production from poplar and willow: a review

Short‐rotation woody crops (SRWC) such as poplar and willow are an important source of renewable energy. They can be converted into electricity and/or heat using conventional or modern biomass technologies. In recent years many studies have examined the energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of bioenergy production from poplar and willow using various approaches. The outcomes of these studies have, however, generated controversy among scientists, policy makers, and the society. This paper reviews 26 studies on energy and GHG balance of bioenergy production from poplar and willow published between 1990 and 2009. The data published in the reviewed literature gave energy ratios (ER) between 13 and 79 for the cradle‐to‐farm gate and between 3 and 16 for cradle‐to‐plant assessments, whereas the intensity of GHG emissions ranged from 0.6 to 10.6 g CO₂ Eq MJ_biomass^?1 and 39 to 132 g CO₂ Eq kWh^?1. These values vary substantially among the reviewed studies depending on the system boundaries and methodological assumptions. The lack of transparency hampers meaningful comparisons among studies. Although specific numerical results differ, our review revealed a general consensus on two points: SRWC yielded 14.1–85.9 times more energy than coal (ER_coal～0.9) per unit of fossil energy input, and GHG emissions were 9–161 times lower than those of coal (GHG_coal～96.8). To help to reduce the substantial variability in results, this review suggests a standardization of the assumptions about methodological issues. Likewise, the development of a widely accepted framework toward a reliable analysis of energy in bioenergy production systems is most needed.     

Integration of Life Cycle assessment and population balance model for assessing environmental impacts of product population in a social scale case studies for the global warming potential of air conditioners in Japan

Scope  In this study, a dynamic model was built in which LCA and PBM were integrated to quantitatively assess the total environmental impacts induced by the product population in a society over time. Specifically, a determination was carried out concerning how Japan’s air conditioner population is used (lifetime distribution, number of units, etc.) and an assessment was made concerning the Global Warming Potential (GWP) associated with the air conditioner population. Methods  The proposed dynamic model was applied to air conditioners for analyzing the total GWP caused by the air conditioner population in Japan from 1990 to 2010. To create a trend forecast model for future environmental load, scenarios for air conditioner production up to 2010 were formulated and the total GWP from the air conditioner population was predicted. Conducted also were sensitivity analyses whose parameters were air conditioner performance, lifetime and the rate of refrigerant recovery when retired units are processed. Results and Discussion  Applying the PBM to the air conditioner population in 2000, it was found that 81.5 million units consumed 5.94 x 10^p10 kWh in that year, which was a 6.1 % increase in the total annual power consumption in 1990. In both a stationary scenario and a steady growth (1.5% annual increase), it was found that the total GWP would be 27.7% higher than in 1990 under the stationary scenario and 37.8% higher under the steady growth scenario. The improvements in air conditioner performance will have a small effect on reducing the total GWP from that population. Furthermore, in connection with the average lifetime, it was found that the GWP, due to refrigerant releases when units are disposed of, would be relatively large in 2000 and the following years. Conclusions  Thus, shorter product lifetimes will spur a replacement of air conditioners with new units, a situation that will only lead to the reduction of GWP if the recovery rate of refrigerant is to be achieved to more than 50% under the stationary scenario. Recommendations and Outlook  To meet COP3 targets for Japan in 2010 (i.e. to reach the same level as in 1990 for household appliances), our study shows that it will be vital to raise the refrigerant recovery rate. If the number of air conditioners in use remains unchanged, recovery would have to be 45.7%, but under the steady growth scenario it would have to be at least 60.4%. Therefore, it will be difficult to meet COP3 targets unless the refrigerant recovery rate is strongly increased. This method is applicable to assess not only the GWP of air conditioners, but also other environmental impacts caused by a variety of product populations, which will be quite effective for setting targets of products’ performance, policymaking, etc.     

Economic assessment and carbon footprint of recycling rare earths from magnets: Evaluation at lab scale paving the way toward industrialization

Project EXTRADE developed an innovative process for recycling rare earths (RE) from permanent magnets used in small applications. To assess the potential of further research from lab scale toward industrialization, this study performs economic and environmental evaluations. Because data are incomplete at current levels of process development, this study propagates uncertainty into the results. Results show that the EXTRADE process, as a complement to the Hard Disk Drive (HDD) waste management system currently in operation in France, could be both economically profitable and beneficial in terms of climate change. However, at this stage of development the price of output products is a key determinant of the economic profitability while still particularly uncertain. Also, the EXTRADE process may offer a climate change benefit due to the substitution of recycled RE oxides for those produced from primary resources (80% chance to be superior to 990 tonnes CO₂‐eq over 5 years). The amount of the waste recycled is another key, uncertain parameter regarding both the environmental and economic benefits provided by the process.