Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945-1979

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.     

Birth spacing in Pakistan

Life table analysis was applied to data from the 1975 Pakistan Fertility Survey to identify child spacing differentials between population subgroups. Women in urban areas had shorter birth intervals than their rural counterparts from parities 1-6; only after parity 7 was this differential reversed. Similarly, women with some education had shorter birth intervals at the earlier parities than uneducated women. While overall family size is relatively homogeneous in Pakistan, women of more modern backgrounds seem to space their children more closely than traditional women. Age at marriage appears to play an important role not only in determining the length of the 1st interval, but also that of subsequent intervals. An unexpected finding was that ever users of contraception had distinctly more rapid spacing of their births than never users. The median interval to 1st birth was shortest in North West Frontier Province, but similar in Punjab and Sind. Multiple classification analysis revealed that some differentials in child spacing by education, residence, and province persisted even after other variables were controlled. Cohort of mother had an independent effect, with younger cohorts having shorter birth intervals. However, the variable that had the strongest effect on length of interval (aside from the 1st interval) was breastfeeding duration. It is likely that increasing urbanization and improved levels of education among women will lead to high levels of marital fertility associated with shorter birth intervals. Even though these trends tend to increase the age at marriage, they are associated with shorter durations of breastfeeding. In the longer term, greater use of contraception among women in the modern sector may partially counteract the fertility increasing effect of reduced birth intervals.     

Stable aggregate fertility in a time of family change: a decomposition of trends in American fertility, 1970-1999

Population-level birth rates in the United States were largely stable between 1970 and 1999. This stability contrasts with rapid change in marriage rates and fertility timing during the same period. In this article, I use decomposition techniques to analyze this seeming paradox. I decompose the general fertility rate into four components: age distribution, marital status, age-specific nonmarital fertility, and age-specific marital fertility. Absent other changes, declining time spent married would have led to substantial decline in fertility. Several factors combined to counterbalance these changes in marital behavior. Among white women in the 1970s and 1980s, marital fertility rates increased at older ages, consistent with a scenario in which women postponed both marriage and childbearing; increased nonmarital birth rates during this period were not a driving factor in overall fertility trends. Increased nonmarital fertility was more important in compensating for declining time spent married among African American women and among white women in the 1990s.     

Continuing fertility transitions in a plural society: ethnic trends and differentials in Peninsular Malaysia

Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia has declined continuously from the late 1950s, reaching a total fertility rate of 3735 in 1983. All ethnic groups in Malaysia have contributed to this modern demographic transition but the rate of change has been most rapid for Chinese and Indians, Malay fertility having reached a plateau in the early 1980s. The effect of age structure, marital patterns and marital fertility (by parity) on the fertility declines for each ethnic community are analyzed. There has been a tendency, in each ethnic group, for the age distribution within the group of reproductive-age women to grow younger, reflecting the entry into the younger reproductive ages of the large birth cohorts of the 1950s and early 1960s. The effect of this on crude birth rates is hard to determine, because rising age at marriage and increasing use of contraception meant that fertility was increasingly concentrated in the more central reproductive ages. By the 1990s, the earlier declines in fertility will bring about a decline in the proportion of the total population made up of females in the main reproductive ages. After that point, further declines in fertility will be reflected in a sharper decline in the crude birth rate and hence the rate of population increase. Between 1947 and 1980, the age at marriage changed dramatically for females of all ethnic groups. The transition to higher age at marriage for Chinese was completed earlier, and since 1970 has risen by only a year. For Malays and Indians, the rise began later, proceeded faster and continued right up to 1980 when the medium ages at 1st marriage were Malays 22, Indians 23, Chinese 24 years. In 1980, Malay women on average were marrying 5 years later, and Indian women 6 years later than had their mothers' generation in 1947. The proportion never-married among Malay and Indian women aged 20-24 rose from 1/10 to 1/2 over this period; relatively greater changes are evident at ages 25-29. Other factors are the almost complete shift from parent-arranged to self-arranged marriages. Family size desired has decreased for all groups and the decline in breastfeeding has been offset by the sharp increase in the practice of contraception. Continuation of these trends would lead to replacement-level fertility for Malaysian Chinese and Indians by the year 2000. Malay fertility is likely to continue to decline but at a more moderate pace.     

Breast-feeding in Bangladesh

In this paper the duration of breastfeeding is examined in relation to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of women and households. 98% of Bangladesh mothers breastfeed their children from birth. In data from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey conducted in 1975-1976 on 4998 live births, the mean duration of breastfeeding was 27.3 months. Duration of breastfeeding was positively related with the age of women. Female children were breastfed for periods about 5 months shorter than male children. Children born to urban mothers were breastfed for shorter durations than children born to rural mothers of all age groups. The duration of breastfeeding decreased with the increase of education of the mother. Promotion of breastfeeding should be a primary responsibility of family planning clinics. Further decline in the duration of breastfeeding would increase levels of fertility and infant and child mortality.     

Determinants of fertility in Nepal: applications of an aggregate model

Bongaarts aggregate model of the proximate determinants of fertility is applied to data from the 1976 National Fertility Survey in Nepal. Breastfeeding is shown to be the most important limiting factor, resulting in a reduction of about 6 children per woman. Decline in the duration of breastfeeding by 1/4 would increase fertility by 1 additional child per woman. The temporary separation of spouses due to migration is conjectured to be the 2nd most important fertility inhibiting factor, not explicitly accounted for in the standard model. Results are presented for the 3 major ecological regions, urban-rural residence and educational attainment of women. High nuptiality and virtually no contraceptive use in Nepal produce age-specific fertility rates very close to a natural fertility pattern. Total average interval between births is 36 months; about 18 months are solely due to breastfeeding, the remaining months to combined effects of gestation, waiting time to conception, intrauterine mortality and post-partum infecundability. As urbanization increases and pace of modernization becomes more pronounced, the duration of breastfeeding is susceptible to decline.     

Fertility change in Costa Rica 1960-84: analysis of retrospective lifetime reproductive histories

Lifetime reproductive histories of a 1984-85 nationally representative sample of 870 women aged 25-59 years provided data to describe the evolution of fertility, contraception, breast-feeding, and natural fecundability in Costa Rica between 1960 and 1984. The contraceptive prevalence rate increased from 23% in 1965 to 58% in 1975 and 66% in 1984. Duration of breast-feeding was stable during the 1960s, decreased in the early 1970s, and increased after about 1976. Fecundability among women who did not practise contraception was lower than expected and declined between 1960 and 1975, probably because of selection effects. Despite a high consistency between estimations from the reproductive histories and other sources of data, some suggestion of omissions of short periods of contraceptive use in the distant past was detected. The survey may have reduced recall errors by using a calendar that summarizes major life events together. The analysis demonstrated the feasibility and usefulness of asking for lifetime reproductive histories in fertility surveys in developing countries.     

Changes in contraceptive use and fertility: Panama, 1976 to 1984

Abstract

From 1976 to 1984 important demographic changes occurred in Panama. The total fertility rate declined from 4.5 to 3.7, and contraceptive use amongmarried women 20–44 years of age increased from 55 per cent to 63 per cent. However, using data from three national level reproductive health surveys which were conducted in Panama in 1976, 1979, and 1984, we found that most of the changes took place between 1976 and 1979. Since 1979, overall contraceptive use and fertility have remained virtually unchanged, although there has been an important method‐mix shift toward an increase in the use of contraceptive sterilization and IUD's, with an accompanying decline in the use of oral contraceptives. Although the singulate mean age at marriage remained relatively constant, the average duration of breastfeeding rose 23 per cent during the period. Further gains in contraceptive prevalence and reduction in unplanned fertility in Panama will largely depend on enhanced program efforts first begun in the early 1970's by the Panama Ministry of Health. Future program efforts especially should be directed toward encouraging young couples to space their children more effectively by using temporary methods of contraception.     

Does sex of children matter? Implications for fertility in Pakistan

Preference for children of either sex is considered a constraint on fertility decline as it induces many couples to keep adding on surviving children in the hope of having a desired sex composition of children. However, preferences for children of a particular sex may differ in relation to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of women, traditional values and cultural practices, such as propagating a family name, providing economic advantages, and obtaining a medium of social and economic security in times of illness, unemployment and old age. Utilizing the Pakistan Integrated Household Survey (2001-02), this paper aims at investigating the existence of sex preference and examines sex preference differentials by different attributes of women in Pakistan. The results reveal that there is a desire to have another child in the presence of all children of one sex, either sons or daughters. The desire to have a son with only or mostly daughters, however, is stronger than the desire to have a daughter with only or mostly sons. This behaviour will retard fertility decline unless there is a shift in the desire to have children of both sexes in Pakistan.     

Infant and child mortality in Pakistan--some trends and differentials

Data from reproductive histories collected in the Population, Labor Force and Migration Survey (PLM) of 1979 are used to analyze trends and differentials in infant and child mortality in Pakistan. Comparisons with the Pakistan Fertility Survey (PFS) findings are also presented. The main concern is to provide from the latest national data, the PLM, direct measures of infant and child mortality and to demonstrate the relatively static and low chances of survival for children in Pakistan. The apparent trends from the PLM and the PFS are similar and seem to confirm that infant and childhood mortality has ceased to decline, at least rapidly, since 1965-69. Neonatal mortality is higher at levels of 70-85 deaths/1000 compared to postneonatal mortality of 40-60 deaths/1000. Improvements in neonatal rates from 1950 until 1975 are only approximately 1/2 of those for postneonatal rates for that period. The relationship between maternal age and mortality in the PLM data confirms that children of youngest mothers experienced the highest rates of infant mortality; mortality is again higher for children of oldest mothers aged 35 and above. The pattern of mortality in the 2 surveys is similar except that in the PFS there was little variation among births higher than 5th order. Sex differentials in mortality are very clear in both surveys. Boys have higher chances of dying in the 1st month of life but then the probability of their surviving from age 1 to 5 years is higher, reflecting the behavioral preference for the male sex in this society. The data also demonstrate an almost monotonic decline in infant and child mortality associated with longer birth intervals. Childhood mortality shows a less clear association with preceding birth interval than does infant mortality. While neonatal mortality is much higher in rural than in urban areas, there are negligible differences in the postneonatal rate. The urban-rural differential continues into childhood, reflecting lower health care and nutrition of children in rural areas. The data confirm the importance of parental education, particularly that of mothers, as a contributor to the health and mortality of infants. Mortality between age 1 and 5 years for children of the rural educated group is lower than that for the urban uneducated indicating the strong influence that education of mothers can have in preventing child loss. The combined evidence from the PFS and PLM data stresses the importance of improving health facilities in the rural areas, in aneffort to reduce the differences in mortality by area of residence. The data from both surveys also suggest the need to restrict motherhood to between the ages of 20 and 34, when obstetrical and health risks are minimal, and indicate the definite advantages of increasing the spacing between children.     

A note on the determinants of breastfeeding durations in an African country

Abstract

This paper utilizes data from the 1977–78 Kenya Fertility Survey, one component of the World Fertility Survey, to analyze the determinants of breastfeeding durations for women 15 to 50 years old who had their last‐but‐one live birth between 3 and 15 years prior to the interview. Comparisons are made with the findings from the World Fertility Surveys in eight other developing countries in Asia and Latin America. Findings indicate that literacy, urban residence, secondary school education, and modern employment reduce the duration of breastfeeding in Kenya. In addition, the subgroups of women who appear to be curtailing breastfeeding are growing in proportional size or are composed of women who may be innovators or leaders. A continuation of this pattern into the future may increase levels of infant morbidity and mortality and, in the absence of increased modern contraceptive practice, may increase the societal level of fertility.     

A note on the determinants of breastfeeding durations in an African country

This paper utilizes data from the 1977-78 Kenya Fertility Survey, 1 component of the World Fertility Survey, to analyze the determinants of breastfeeding durations for women 15 to 50 years old who had their last-but-1 live birth between 3 and 15 years prior to the interview. Comparisons are made with the findings fro m the World Fertility Surveys in 8 other developing countries in Asia and Latin America. Findings indicate that literacy, urban residence, secondary school education, and modern employment reduce the duration of breastfeeding in Kenya. In addition, the subgroups of women who appear to be curtailing breastfeeding are growing in proportional size or are composed of women may be innovators or leaders. A continuation of this pattern into the future may increase levels of infant morbidity and mortality and, in the absence of increased modern contraceptive practice, may increase the societal level of fertility. The death of the infant curtails the period of breastfeeding. Although there is a pronounced preference for male children in Kenya, this preference does not lead to differential durations of breastfeeding by sex of child. About 10% of Kenyan women used contraception in the last closed interval. Parity and age explain less than 1% of the variation in duration of breastfeeding in Kenya. Kenyan women are among the least likely to have attended secondary school, to have worked since marriage, and to have used modern contraception. The most traditional groups of Kenyan women, those who are Muslim or who are in polygamous unions, breastfeed for the longest durations. The Kenya Fertility Survey suggests that the subgroup of women with some secondary school education is growing considerably. Kikuyu women may be regarded as innovators in many respects. In addition to having shorter breastfeeding durations, they are the least likely to be in polygamous unions or to want more children, and they are the most likely to be using contraception.     

Recent trends and components of change in fertility in Nepal

The objectives of this article are, first, to provide improved estimates of recent fertility levels and trends in Nepal and, second, to analyse the components of fertility change. The analysis is based on data from Nepal's 1996 and 2001 Demographic and Health Surveys. Total fertility rates (TFR) are derived by the own-children method. They incorporate additional adjustments to compensate for displacement of births, and they are compared with estimates derived by the birth-history method. Fertility is estimated not only for the whole country but also by urban/rural residence and by woman's education. The own-children estimates for the whole country indicate that the TFR declined from 4.96 to 4.69 births per woman between the 3-year period preceding the 1996 survey and the 3-year period preceding the 2001 survey. About three-quarters of the decline stems from reductions in age-specific marital fertility rates and about one-quarter from changes in age-specific proportions currently married. Further decomposition of the decline in marital fertility, as measured by births per currently married woman during the 5-year period before each survey, indicates that almost half of the decline in marital fertility is accounted for by changes in population composition by ecological region, development region, urban/rural residence, education, age at first cohabitation with husband, time elapsed since first cohabitation, number of living children at the start of the 5-year period and media exposure. With these variables controlled, another one-third of the decline is accounted for by increase in the proportion sterilized at the start of the 5-year period before each survey.     

Effect of famine on fertility in a rural area of Bangladesh

Data on household socioeconomic status collected in the 1974 census and registration data on births, deaths, and migrations for the 1974-77 period from the Demographic Surveillance System of the International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, were used to investigate the effects of the 1974-75 famine on differential fertility in a rural population of Bangladesh. Occupation of household head was used as a measure of socioeconomic status. Overall, fertility declined by 34% over the 1975-76 period and increased by 17% in 1976-77 from the 1974-75 figure. Significantly lower fertility was observed in 1975-76, irrespective of socioeconomic status, but the lower socioeconomic groups were affected more than the higher groups. Post-famine fertility was significantly higher only in the 2 middle occupation categories. The age-specific fertility rates suggest that the famine affected all age groups. The post-famine fertility was higher than that of 1974-75 in all but those aged below 20. At age 40 and over the recovery was slight. Husband-wife separation showed an increase during the famine and particularly among the lower socioeconomic groups. The males of the lower socioeconomic households migrated to other regions to obtain food for the family, thus affecting frequency of coitus. The decline in fertility may be due to several factors: deferred marriage; increase in divorces and husband-wife separations; high fetal wastage; voluntary fertility control through contraception, abstention, or induced abortion; and infecundability. An indirect measure of marriage rate indicated that fewer couples entered into marriage in 1974-75, particularly in the lower socioeconomic groups. Both the higher and lower socioeconomic groups were affected by the famine but the precise mechanisms were not the same. At this stage, it is not feasible to estimate the contribution of each factor to the fertility decline. The lower socioeconomic groups were more affected by husband-wife separations and deferred marriages; the higher socioeconomic groups were affected by mental stress and anxiety.     

Fertility transition in Bangladesh: understanding the role of the proximate determinants

Bangladesh has been passing through a crucial phase of fertility transition. The level of fertility declined dramatically during the early 1990s without any remarkable improvement in socioeconomic and health status, and then remained constant at a high level of 3.3, despite the increased use of contraception. Such fertility transition can be traced to variations in one or more of the proximate or direct determinants of fertility. This paper critically analyses the fertility levels in Bangladesh with a view to exploring the possible explanations of fertility decline in the 1990s and then its stabilization. The main focus of the study is to examine the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the change in fertility level in Bangladesh. The data for the study come from a series of nationally representative surveys over the period of 1975 to 1999-2000. The analysis indicates that fertility has temporarily ceased to decline in recent years due to the 'tempo' effect of high past fertility, but in general a declining trend in fertility is underway. The analysis suggests that the fall in fertility is consistent with the underlying trends in most important proximate determinants of fertility. In recent years contraception has emerged as the highest fertility reducing factor in Bangladesh and its effect is greatest in middle and older age groups. Although until the early 1990s postpartum lactational infecundability was the most important and strongest fertility reducing factor in Bangladesh, in recent years its fertility inhibiting effect has gradually decreasing owing to the declining trend in the lactational infecundability period. The analysis reveals that although the fertility reducing effect of the marriage pattern is increasing, its effect is offset by the declining trend in the lactational infecundability period. A review of these two variables suggests that their effect cannot be raised much for prevailing socioeconomic and cultural reasons, and any future reduction in fertility in Bangladesh may be largely dependent on increased use of effective birth control methods.     

Rapid fertility decline in Iran: analysis of intermediate variables

The remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total fertility rate fall from 7 children per woman in 1986 to 2 in 2000, has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and Bongaarts' age-specific fertility model, this paper examines the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the rapid decrease in fertility in Iran. The analysis indicates that contraception had the largest effect on fertility, accounting for 61% of the reduction in fertility from its theoretical maximum. The fertility-inhibiting effect of marriage patterns accounted for an additional 31% reduction, and was most important among the young. Further analysis of contraceptive behaviour suggests that the current period fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman is an outcome of a synchronization of delaying and spacing of births among younger women with stopping of childbearing among women in the middle and late reproductive ages. The policy implications of the results are discussed.     

Proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria

Data from the 1981-82 Nigeria Fertility Survey (NFS) are used to identify the key proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria. The patterns of their individual and collective effects are analyzed in a search for possible sources of fertility change. Exposure to the risk of childbearing through first marriage is found to be the most important proximate determinant of Nigerian fertility. Subsequent to marriage, fertility is determined mainly by breastfeeding and postpartum sexual abstinence. Where fertility shows significant socioeconomic variations, there are equally identifiable patterns of the impact of the proximate determinants which explain these differentials to a large extent. On a national scale, the observed patterns of the impact of the measured proximate determinants do not appear to suggest that Nigerian fertility is soon to experience a large decline.     

Rural-urban differentials in marital fertility in four Muslim populations

An analysis based on data collected as a part of the World Fertility Survey program in 4 Muslim populations Bangladesh, Java, Jordan and Pakistan does not show a consistent pattern in rural-urban differentials in marital fertility. While no significant diiferential in current fertility by place of current residence is noticeable in Bangladesh and Pakistan, urban women in Jordan showed lower fertility than their rural counterparts. Cumulative fertility, when controlled for duration of marriage, was found to be higher in urban than in rural areas of Bangladesh and Pakistan, but no clear pattern emerged in Jordan. In Java, both current and cumulative fertility were higher in urban than in rural areas; urban women who had spent their childhood and were brought up in the urban environment showed, in most instances, higher fertility than the other residence groups. (author's modified     

Fertility levels, trends and differentials in Kuwait

Data used in this study come from the published reports of the censuses and vital registration systems. The crude birth rate in Kuwait is very high, although an apparent decline seems to have started in the period 1975-80. There are considerable differences between the Kuwaiti and non-Kuwaiti populations. The former had a relatively stable high rate around 50 until 1975 and then fell to 47 in 1980. The total fertility rate was 6.8 per woman. The rate for the non-Kuwaitis rose in 1965-70 and then fell sharply throughout 1970-1980, from 44 to 30. Non-Kuwaiti fertility is consistently lower than Kuwaiti fertility at all ages, the differences being relatively greater after age 35. The peak ages of fertility are 25-29 years for Kuwaitis and 20-29 years for non-Kuwaitis. For Kuwaitis, there is clear evidence of declining fertility in the younger age groups but not in the older, largely reflecting the trend towards later marriage among the younger Kuwaitis. As expected, there is a diminishing trend in completed family size from the least to the most educated women in both Kuwaiti and non-Kuwaiti women in all age groups. The illiterate women at marriage are younger than the university educated women by about 5 years. Results further show that women who are economically active have lower fertility than those who are not, both in Kuwaiti and non-Kuwaiti groups. The differences in each group are significant, as are differences in the fertility level by husband's occupation. High fertility in Kuwait, as well as in other oil-exporting Arab countries, is a result of a variety of factors including the generally pronatalist sentiment of the Arab population, improved health facilities, rising wealth, the youthful age structure, the young age at marriage and the substantial incentives in the different governmental schemes to promote native high fertility and keep a balance between the native and immigrant populations.