The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Assessing trends in climate aridity and vulnerability to soil degradation in Italy

The present study illustrates a framework to analyze changes in climate aridity and soil degradation on a country scale in Italy. The spatial distribution of an indicator of soil vulnerability to degradation (the SQI, soil quality index) was compared with an aridity index (the ratio of annual rainfall to annual reference evapotranspiration) estimated on a decadal basis during 1951–2010. The aridity index decreased by 0.38% per year indicating increased aridity and a non-uniform spatial distribution of soil vulnerability to degradation. Changes in the aridity index were found associated with the lowest SQI classes, suggesting that the largest increase in climate aridity affects land with high-quality soils. Territorial disparities in the aridity index between high-quality and low-quality soils decreased over time indicating a more homogeneous and dry climate regime prevailing in the more recent decades. Results may inform sustainable land management policies and National Action Plans to combat desertification in the Mediterranean region. Areas classified at increased aridity and high vulnerability to soil degradation should be identified as a key target for climate change mitigation policies. Sustainable land management strategies are required to address the dependency between climate variations, land-use changes and soil degradation processes.     

The influence of mean climate trends and climate variance on beaver survival and recruitment dynamics

Ecologists are increasingly aware of the importance of environmental variability in natural systems. Climate change is affecting both the mean and the variability in weather and, in particular, the effect of changes in variability is poorly understood. Organisms are subject to selection imposed by both the mean and the range of environmental variation experienced by their ancestors. Changes in the variability in a critical environmental factor may therefore have consequences for vital rates and population dynamics. Here, we examine ≥90‐year trends in different components of climate (precipitation mean and coefficient of variation (CV); temperature mean, seasonal amplitude and residual variance) and consider the effects of these components on survival and recruitment in a population of Eurasian beavers (n = 242) over 13 recent years. Within climatic data, no trends in precipitation were detected, but trends in all components of temperature were observed, with mean and residual variance increasing and seasonal amplitude decreasing over time. A higher survival rate was linked (in order of influence based on Akaike weights) to lower precipitation CV (kits, juveniles and dominant adults), lower residual variance of temperature (dominant adults) and lower mean precipitation (kits and juveniles). No significant effects were found on the survival of nondominant adults, although the sample size for this category was low. Greater recruitment was linked (in order of influence) to higher seasonal amplitude of temperature, lower mean precipitation, lower residual variance in temperature and higher precipitation CV. Both climate means and variance, thus proved significant to population dynamics; although, overall, components describing variance were more influential than those describing mean values. That environmental variation proves significant to a generalist, wide‐ranging species, at the slow end of the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, has broad implications for population regulation and the evolution of life histories.     

North American Brant: effects of changes in habitat and climate on population dynamics

We describe the importance of key habitats used by four nesting populations of nearctic brant (Branta bernicla) and discuss the potential relationship between changes in these habitats and population dynamics of brant. Nearctic brant, in contrast to most geese, rely on marine habitats and native intertidal plants during the non‐breeding season, particularly the seagrass, Zostera, and the macroalgae, Ulva. Atlantic and Eastern High Arctic brant have experienced the greatest degradation of their winter habitats (northeastern United States and Ireland, respectively) and have also shown the most plasticity in feeding behavior. Black and Western High Arctic brant of the Pacific Flyway are the most dependent on Zostera, and are undergoing a shift in winter distribution that is likely related to climate change and its associated effects on Zostera dynamics. Variation in breeding propensity of Black Brant associated with winter location and climate strongly suggests that food abundance on the wintering grounds directly affects reproductive performance in these geese. In summer, salt marshes, especially those containing Carex and Puccinellia, are key habitats for raising young, while lake shorelines with fine freshwater grasses and sedges are important for molting birds. Availability and abundance of salt marshes has a direct effect on growth and recruitment of goslings and ultimately, plays an important role in regulating size of local brant populations.     

Determining the effects of habitat management and climate on the population trends of a declining steppe bird

The Little Bustard Tetrax tetrax is one of the most threatened steppe bird species in Europe, due mainly to agricultural intensification. Despite the relative importance of the Iberian population (approximately 50% of the global population) little is known about its dynamics and trends, especially in core distribution areas. This study evaluates the influences of meteorological factors and land management on the oscillations and medium-term trends of two Little Bustard populations in Central Spain. During 2001–2007, surveys of breeding male and female Little Bustards were carried out in two central Spanish locations: Valdetorres, in Special Protection Area (SPA) no. 139 (1600 ha), and Campo Real, in Important Bird Area (IBA) no. 075 (1150 ha). Densities were 3.3–4.0 and 1.1–2.1 males/km² in Campo Real, and 1.8–2.2 and 0.6–1.3 females/km² in Valdetorres. The sex ratio was biased towards males in both cases. Both populations declined during 2001–2007, especially in Valdetorres (60%). Variation in habitat composition did not explain variation in the numbers of males. Both populations were influenced by total precipitation in the preceding October–May period. Results suggest that the Little Bustard may be sensitive to future climate trends in Europe. Finally, different simulated demographic scenarios suggest that low female survival and productivity may be the immediate cause of the decline in Little Bustard populations, which is consistent with their sensitivity to climatic conditions.     

Long-term population changes in the Giant Quiver Tree, Aloe pillansii in the Richtersveld, South Africa

With probably fewer than 3000 individuals alive in the biodiversity hotspot of the Succulent Karoo in southern Africa, populations of the endemic, Giant Quiver Tree, Aloe pillansii, are thought to be declining and thus threatened with extinction. Using repeat photography and field data we investigated the long-term changes in one population of A. pillansii at its type locality, the roughly 100 ha Cornell’s Kop in the Richtersveld, South Africa. There are currently 75 individuals alive at this site. Of these, 44% are <1 m in height (seedlings), 4% are 1–3 m (juveniles) and 52% are >3 m (adults). An analysis of 14 repeat photographs shows that since 1937 an average of 1.4% of the plants >3 m in height has died annually. At this rate all the remaining 39 plants on Cornell’s Kop in this size class will be dead in 71 years. The relative paucity of plants in the 1–3 m size classes could be explained by several factors including plant theft, animal damage and unfavourable recruitment conditions during the first 80 years of the 20th century. Annual growth rates decrease as plants age. Individuals <1 m in height grow at 42.5 mm yr⁻¹ while plants 1–3 m and those >3 m grow at 31.0 and 16.4 mm yr⁻¹ respectively. At 8 m, the tallest plant on Cornell’s Kop could be as old as 382 years and thus to maintain itself at this site, A. pillansii would only need to recruit relatively infrequently. The relatively high proportion of seedlings suggests that conditions have recently been favourable for recruitment at this site. Seedling ages, estimated from their heights, indicate that over 50% of the plants <1 m in height germinated 5–10 years ago. This is consistent with local rainfall records which show that rainfall was consistently above the long-term annual average of 75 mm during this period. However, the loss of six seedlings from the population in the last 5 years, probably due to grazing or theft, suggests that without intervention this species will not survive on Cornell’s Kop.     

A tale of two polar bear populations: ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

Interspecific differences in population trends of Spanish birds are related to habitat and climatic preferences

Aim Animal monitoring programmes have allowed analyses of population trends, most of which now comment on the possible effect of global climate change. However, the relationship between the interspecific variation in population trends and species traits, such as habitat preferences, niche breadth or distribution patterns, has received little attention, in spite of its usefulness in the construction of ecological generalizations. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine whether there are characteristics shared among species with upwards or downwards trends, and (2) to assess whether population changes agree with what could be expected under global warming (a decrease in species typical of cooler environments). Location The Spanish part of the Iberian Peninsula (c. 500,000 km²) in the south‐western part of the Mediterranean Basin. Methods We modelled recent breeding population changes (1996–2004), in areas without apparent land use changes, for 57 common passerine birds with species‐specific ecological and distributional patterns as explanatory variables. Results One‐half of these species have shown a generalized pattern towards the increase of their populations, while only one‐tenth showed a significant decrease. One half (54%) of the interspecific variability in yearly population trends is explained considering species‐specific traits. Species showing more marked increases preferred wooded habitats, were habitat generalists and occupied warmer and wetter areas, while moderate decreases were found for open country habitats in drier areas. Main conclusions The coherent pattern in population trends we found disagrees with the proposed detrimental effect of global warming on bird populations of western Europe, which is expected to be more intense in bird species inhabiting cooler areas and habitats. Such a pattern suggests that factors other than the increase in temperature may be brought to discussions on global change as relevant components to explain recent changes in biodiversity.     

The influences of habitat, landscape structure and climate on local distribution patterns of the nuthatch (Sitta europaea L.)

The nuthatch, Sitta europaea L., is a small (23 g), cavity-nesting woodland bird which, since the 1970s, has been expanding its range in Britain. However, within this range, the species is notably scarce in an area of eastern England. This gap in the species distribution could arise for several reasons including habitat quality, local landscape structure, regional landscape structure and climate. Field surveys and logistic models of breeding nuthatch presence/absence were used to investigate the relative influences of habitat quality, landscape structure and climate on the prevalence of nuthatches in eastern England. Field surveys of woods in the study area indicated that habitat quality was sufficient to support a nuthatch population. A model of habitat occupancy in relation to local landscape structure, developed in the Netherlands, was applied to the study area. The number of breeding pairs predicted for the study area by the model was lower than expected from habitat area alone, suggesting an additional effect of isolation. However, observed numbers were even lower than those predicted by the model. To evaluate the possible roles of climate and large-scale landscape structure on distribution, presence/absence data of breeding nuthatches at the 10-km grid square scale were related to variables describing climate and the amount and dispersion of broadleaved woodland. While climate in the study area appeared suitable, models including landscape variables suggested that the study area as a whole was unlikely to support nuthatches. Although suitable habitat was available, woodland in the study area appeared to be too isolated from surrounding nuthatch populations for colonisation to be successful. This situation may change if current increases in both national and regional populations continue, thus increasing the number of potential colonists reaching the study area. Received: 3 November 1997 / 22 January 1998     

Spatial heterogeneity in mortality and its impact on the population dynamics of Eurasian woodcocks

Spatial heterogeneity, especially in mortality risk, is a major factor shaping population dynamics. Here we study the impacts of spatial heterogeneity in hunting pressure on the demography of Eurasian woodcock Scolopax rusticola, a relatively long-lived migratory game bird. We develop capture–recapture–recovery models in which both seasonality and spatial variation in hunting pressure are accounted for, and fit them to individual-based data collected across the French wintering range (>44000 banded individuals) as well as recoveries from spring stopovers and breeding grounds in Europe. Our results quantify spatial variation in survival probability in the wintering areas. They highlight the role of source-sink dynamics involving juvenile settlement decisions, as well as the importance of mortality outside the winter quarters. We also discuss the impact of spatial heterogeneity for demographic parameter estimation and data collection at the range scale.     

Frost and forest stand effects on the population dynamics of Asplenium scolopendrium

Our objective was to analyze which factors are critical for the dynamics of terrestrial Asplenium scolopendrium populations at the northern edge of its distribution. Therefore, a long-term study (1978–1999) on the performance and demography of this fern species has been carried out in three different forest stands (Picea sitchensis with Fagus sylvatica, P. sitchensis with thinning, and Fraxinus excelsior) in the Netherlands. We used the recorded demographic data to parameterize 37 transition matrices. The number of frost days in severe winters correlated closely with frond damage and resulted in increased mortality and retrogression. Landslip on the trench banks and intraspecific competition were also found to increase mortality. In the F. excelsior plot, plants grew faster and bigger, produced more fronds and formed a more closed fern cover than in the P. sitchensis stands, likely due to higher light levels. Life-table response experiments revealed that reproduction contributed greatly to the differences in projected population growth rates: reproduction was importantly higher in the F. excelsior and in the thinned P. sitchensis plots than in the P. sitchensis–F. sylvatica plot. These differences can be attributed to an initial difference in light climate and to the accumulation of F. sylvatica litter which reduced recruitment. Recruitment occurred on bare soil but also in open moss carpets. We expect that the fern Asplenium scolopendrium will profit at its northern distribution edge when severe winters will occur less frequently, which is one of the expectations for global climate change.     

A population facing climate change: joint influences of Allee effects and environmental boundary geometry

As a result of climate change, many populations have to modify their range to follow the suitable areas—their “climate envelope”—often risking extinction. During this migration process, they may face absolute boundaries to dispersal because of external environmental factors. Consequently, not only the position, but also the shape of the climate envelope can be modified. We use a reaction-diffusion model to analyse the effects on population persistence of simultaneous changes in the position and shape of the climate envelope. When the growth term is of logistic type, we show that extinction and persistence are principally conditioned by the species mobility and the speed of climate change, but not by the shape of the climate envelope. However, with a growth term taking an Allee effect into account, we find a high sensitivity to variations in the shape of the climate envelope. In this case, the species which have a high mobility, although they could more easily follow the migration of the climate envelope, would be at risk of extinction when encountering a local narrowing of the boundary geometry. This effect can be attenuated by a progressive opening at the exit of the narrowing into the available space, even though this leads temporarily to a diminished area of the climate envelope.     

Long-term persistence in a changing climate: DNA analysis suggests very old ages of clones of alpine Carex curvula

Carex curvula is a very slow-growing rhizomatous sedge that forms extensive stands in the European an alpine belt. The recruitment of sexual progeny is extremely rare and propagation occurs predominantly through clonal growth. The randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique was used to analyse clonal structure in a small patch (2.0x0.4 m sampling transect plus some additional samples) of a high-alpine population of the species. Amplification of the DNA of 116 tiller samples from the patch with eight ten-base primers yielded a total of 95 bands, of which 73 were polymorphic. Based on the RAPD amplification profiles a total of 15 multilocus genotypes (putative clones) were identified. Due to the high number of polymorphic loci the number of genetic markers delineating individual clones was high (range: 16–39 markers) which suggests that our estimates of clonal diversity are precise. More than half of the sampled tillers were identified as belonging to a single clone which formed a relatively homogeneous disc intermingling with other clones only at its margin. Based on the maximum diameter of this large clone of more than 7000 tillers and estimates of annual expansion growth of rhizomes (0.4 mm year^-1), the age of the clone was calculated to be around 2000 years. This demonstrates that clones of C. curvula may persist on a single spot over long periods with quite diverse alpine climates ranging from rather mild periods in the Middle Ages to cool periods during the so called little ice age in the last century. Our results suggest caution with plant migration scenarios based on shifting isotherms where late-successional clonal species, which dominate the alpine vegetation all over the world, are concerned.     

Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982–2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift (Apus apus), nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), and house martin (Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling (Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow (Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.     

A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate on geographic range and seasonality of the tick Ixodes scapularis

A dynamic population model of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of a number of tick-borne zoonoses in North America, was developed to simulate effects of temperature on tick survival and seasonality. Tick development rates were modelled as temperature-dependent time delays, calculated using mean monthly normal temperature data from specific meteorological stations. Temperature also influenced host-finding success in the model. Using data from stations near endemic populations of I. scapularis, the model reached repeatable, stable, cyclical equilibria with seasonal activity of different instars being very close to that observed in the field. In simulations run using data from meteorological stations in central and eastern Canada, the maximum equilibrium numbers of ticks declined the further north was the station location, and simulated populations died out at more northerly stations. Tick die-out at northern latitudes was due to a steady increase in mortality of all life stages with decreasing temperature rather than a specific threshold event in phenology of one life stage. By linear regression we investigated mean annual numbers of degree-days >0 degrees C (DD>0 degrees C) as a readily mapped index of the temperature conditions at the meteorological stations providing temperature data for the model. Maximum numbers of ticks at equilibrium were strongly associated with the mean DD>0 degrees C (r2>0.96, P<0.001), when the Province of origin of the meteorological station was accounted for (Quebec>Ontario, beta=103, P<0.001). The intercepts of the regression models provided theoretical limits for the establishment of I. scapularis in Canada. Maps of these limits suggested that the range of southeast Canada where temperature conditions are currently suitable for the tick, is much wider than the existing distribution of I. scapularis, implying that there is potential for spread. Future applications of the model in investigating climate change effects on I. scapularis are discussed.     

The role of climate change in the widespread mortality of holm oak in open woodlands of Southwestern Spain

Forest decline and increasing tree mortality are of global concern and the identification of the causes is necessary to develop preventive measures. Global warming is an emerging factor responsible for the increasing tree mortality in drought-prone ecosystems. In the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, Mediterranean holm oak open woodlands currently undergo large-scale population-level tree die-off. In this region, temperature and aridity have increased during recent decades, but the possible role of climate change in the current oak mortality has not been investigated.To assess the role of climate change in oak die-off in managed open woodlands in southwestern Spain, we analyzed climate change-related signals in century-long tree ring chronologies of dead holm oaks. We examined the high/low-frequency variability in growth and the relationship between growth and climate.Similar to other Mediterranean forests, growth was favored by precipitation from autumn of the year prior to ring formation to spring of the year of ring formation, whereas high temperatures during spring limited growth. Since the 1970s, the intensity of the high-frequency response to water availability increased simultaneously with temperature and aridity. The growth trends matched those of climatic changes. Growth suppressions occurred during droughts in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Widespread stand-level, age-independent mortality occurred since 2005 and affected trees that cannot be considered old for the species standards.The close relationship between growth and climate indicate that climate change strongly controlled the growth patterns. This suggests that harsher climatic conditions, especially increased aridity, affected the tree performance and could have played a significant role in the mortality process. Climate change may have exacerbated or predisposed trees to the impact of other factors (e.g. intense management and pathogens). These observations could suggest a similar future increase in oak mortality which may occur in more northern oak open woodlands if aridity further increases.     

Butterfly monitoring in Europe: methods,applications and perspectives

Since the first Butterfly Monitoring Scheme in the UK started in the mid-1970s, butterfly monitoring in Europe has developed in more than ten European countries. These schemes are aimed to assess regional and national trends in butterfly abundance per species. We discuss strengths and weaknesses of methods used in these schemes and give examples of applications of the data. A new development is to establish supra-national trends per species and multispecies indicators. Such indicators enable to report against the target to halt biodiversity loss by 2010. Our preliminary European Grassland Butterfly Indicator shows a decline of 50% between 1990 and 2005. We expect to develop a Grassland Butterfly Indicator with an improved coverage across European countries. We see also good perspectives to develop a supra-national indicator for climate change as well as an indicator for woodland butterflies.     

Second-order feedback and climatic effects determine the dynamics of a small rodent population in a temperate forest of South America

 The multiannual cyclic fluctuations exhibited by arvicoline rodents in the Northern Hemisphere have attracted the attention of population ecologists. However, despite the abundant information on small rodent dynamics in South America, there are no studies reporting cyclic population dynamics. Here, we report evidence of cyclic population dynamics in a South American small rodent, the longhaired field mouse (Abrothrix longipilis) from southern temperate forests in Chile. The time-series analyses showed that longhaired field mice dynamics are better represented by a second-order autoregressive model characterized by 3-year cyclic dynamics. The 3-year cycles are clearly shown in the autocorrelation factor (ACF) pattern and in the dominant frequency of the spectral analysis. In addition, we determined nonlinear effects of the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAOI). The results shown here pointed out that we need the integration of studies about cyclic small rodent populations from the different continents and beyond the Northern Hemisphere to resolve the enigma underlying the cyclic population dynamics exhibited by many small rodent species. Received: September 19, 2002 / Accepted: February 4, 2003