Atherosclerosis risk factors in children of high risk families

The Objective of this study was to determine the frequency of care reactive atherosclerosis risk factors in children of parents with premature coronary heart disease observed before their 45 years of age for the promotion of the effectivity of the preventive work started in childhood and adolescent ages. METHODS: Height and weight was measured. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated. Fat analysis was performed in children with overweight. Blood pressure was measured and both 24 hour monitoring and fundoscopy were performed in cases with a blood pressure higher than 90 centile values. Fasting blood sugar (BS) level was measured. Oral glucose tolerance test was made in cases with a fasting BS level higher than 5 mmol/l. Serum total cholesterol (TC), HDL-cholesterol (HDLC) and total triglyceride (TT) levels were measured and LDL-cholesterol (LDLC) level was calculated. The plasma thiobarbituric acid reactive system (TBARS) was investigated. Statistical analyses were performed by chi2 and Student t-probes. Data of 1140 offsprings and 457 referents without any high atherosclerotic risk family history were analyzed. RESULTS: BMI of 87 offsprings was higher than the 90 centile value. The fat percent of the body of these children was higher than 40. The blood pressure of 311 children and adolescents was higher than the 90 centile value. Fasting BS level was higher than 5 mmol/l in 47 cases 17 of them showed a pathologic oral glucose tolerance test. High serum TC level was observed in 67 cases, high serum TT level was found in 8 cases. 245 offsprings had a low serum HDLC level. The plasma TBARS level was high in 241 cases. Data of referents differed significantly from those of offsprings. Their serum TC, LDLC levels and plasma TBARS level were lower, serum HDLC level was higher than that of children and adolescents with high risk atherosclerotic family history. CONCLUSION: Risk factors of atherosclerosis are detectable in children and adolescents of high risk families. The measurement of these factors may help the efficacy of the preventive work.     

Discordant risk: Overweight and cardiometabolic risk in Chinese adults

Objective:

Recent US work identified “metabolically healthy overweight” and “metabolically at risk normal weight” individuals. Less is known for modernizing countries with recent increased obesity.

Design and Methods:

Fasting blood samples, anthropometry and blood pressure from 8,233 adults aged 18‐98 in the 2009 nationwide China Health and Nutrition Survey, were used to determine prevalence of overweight (Asian cut point, BMI ≥23 kg/m²) and five risk factors (prediabetes/diabetes (hemoglobin A1c ≥5.7%) inflammation (high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein (hsCRP) ≥3 mg/l), prehypertension/hypertension (Systolic blood pressure/diastolic blood pressure≥130/85 mm Hg), high triglycerides (≥150 mg/dl), low high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (<40 (men)/ <50 mg/dl (women)). Sex‐stratified, logistic, and multinomial logistic regression models estimated concurrent obesity and cardiometabolic risk, with and without abdominal obesity, adjusting for age, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, urbanicity, and income.

Results:

Irrespective of urbanicity, 78.3% of the sample had ≥1 elevated cardiometabolic risk factor (normal weight: 33.2% had ≥1 elevated risk factor; overweight: 5.7% had none). At the age of 18‐30 years, 47.4% had no elevated risk factors, which dropped to 6% by the age 70, largely due to age‐related increase in hypertension risk (18‐30 years: 11%; >70 years: 73%). Abdominal obesity was highly predictive of metabolic risk, irrespective of overweight (e.g., “metabolically at risk overweight” relative to “metabolically healthy normal weight” (men: relative risk ratio (RRR) = 39.06; 95% confidence interval (CI): 23.47, 65.00; women: RRR = 22.26; 95% CI: 17.49, 28.33)).

Conclusion:

A large proportion of Chinese adults have metabolic abnormalities. High hypertension risk with age, underlies the low prevalence of metabolically healthy overweight. Screening for cardiometabolic‐related outcomes dependent upon overweight will likely miss a large portion of the Chinese at risk population.     

婴儿早期不同程度过敏风险高危因素大样本调查

目的通过大样本调查1～3月龄婴儿过敏风险,探讨影响婴儿过敏风险的高危因素。方法随机抽取我院2 188名健康查体的1～3月龄婴儿进行过敏风险程度评估,并对影响婴儿过敏风险程度的部分因素以及婴儿湿疹患病情况进行分析。结果本研究共发放问卷2 188份,全部回收,共剔除无效问卷101份,获得有效问卷2 087份,问卷有效率达95.38%。本研究中婴儿湿疹发病率为49.11%(1 025/2 087),且不同过敏风险婴儿湿疹的发生率不同(均P0.05)。生产方式、喂养方式、父母过敏性疾病史、孕期服用叶酸和孕期烟草烟雾暴露这5个因素与过敏风险关系显著(均P0.05)。性别、胎次、母亲学历、孕周、婴儿洗澡频率、房间通风频率、出生季节、1～3月龄母乳期回避海鲜间差异无统计学意义(均P0.05)。Logistic回归分析显示父母有过敏性疾病史、剖宫产、配方奶和部分人乳喂养、孕期服用叶酸、孕期烟草烟雾暴露为婴儿过敏性疾病发生的危险因素,OR值均1。结论婴儿期是过敏的易感时期,需要通过多种途径对婴儿进行过敏预防,早期过敏风险评估对降低婴儿过敏发生率具有重大意义。     

基于多风险源胁迫的西南地区生态风险评价

西南地区生态环境复杂、人地矛盾突出,生态系统面临着多种风险胁迫,进行生态风险评价对区域生态风险的预警和防控具有重要的意义。基于西南地区的生态环境特征,将生态风险分为自然灾害风险与人类活动风险,从风险源危险性、生态系统潜在损失度、生态系统易损性3个方面构建单一风险评价模型,将单一风险评价结果进行综合分析得到西南地区综合生态风险结果。研究表明,西南高生态风险区面积为17.02万km2,占研究区总面积7.4%,主要分布在念青唐古拉山、邛崃山、哀牢山、无量山、金沙江、怒江、澜沧江、大渡河流域等地,以及成都、重庆、贵阳等人地作用强烈的大城市周边。这些地区环境复杂,灾害易发,应加强防控与监测,优化产业结构,继续推进生态保护工程,降低生态风险。     

A risk shadow in Spain

This paper describes a period of intense risk construction in Spain. By autumn 2000 there was a coincidence of different alarming events affecting Spanish society and widely covered by media. A feeling of risk extended all around and the Spanish political agenda was, for a time, dominated by risk issues. This paper tries to establish how useful the concept of 'risk shadow' can be in order to analyse the construction of risk in a global context. The narratives of risk seem to give this phenomenon its cultural consistency, because more than a scientific fact, risk construction is a cultural matter.     

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

Perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6‐year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn (Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk into three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit‐oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops have a higher potential to successfully compete with corn under marginal crop production conditions.     

城市化的生态风险及其管理

城市化体现在人口向城市聚集和城市景观扩张的同时,社会结构发生了极大变化,城市生产生活方式向更加广泛的地区扩散。然而,随着人口的过度密集和城市的日益扩张,交通拥堵、空气污染、废物堆积、流行病肆虐等"城市病"频发。城市通过大量汲取和消耗自然资源,向周围环境排放大量污染物,改变了区域生态系统的原有结构和功能,产生了严峻的生态风险,进而制约着城市生态系统的可持续发展。城市化的生态风险正逐步得到广泛关注,但对其具体的内涵和影响尚不明晰。归类描述了城市化过程中面临的各种生态风险,分析了导致生态风险的主要因素,阐述了辨识与评价生态风险的基本方法,提出了城市化生态风险的调控管理对策。     

Understanding predation risk and individual variation in risk avoidance for threatened boreal caribou

Predation risk is a driver of species’ distributions. Animals can increase risk avoidance in response to fluctuations in predation risk, but questions remain regarding individual variability and the capacity to respond to changes in spatial risk across human‐altered landscapes. In northeast British Columbia, Canada, boreal caribou populations declined as roads and seismic lines have increased, which are theorized to increase gray wolf predation. Our goal was to model risk and to evaluate individual variability and the development of risk perception by examining individual risk avoidance in response to reproductive status and age. We used locations from collared caribou and wolves to identify landscape features associated with the risk of a potential wolf‐caribou encounter and risk of being killed given an encounter. We built resource selection functions to estimate individual responses to risk. We used general linear regressions to evaluate individual risk and linear feature avoidance as a function of age and reproductive status (calf or no calf). Linear features increased the risk of encounter. Older caribou and caribou with calves demonstrated stronger avoidance of the risk of encounter and roads, but weaker avoidance in late summer to the risk of being killed relative to younger and calf‐less individuals. Mechanisms explaining the inverse relationships between the risk of encounter and risk of being killed are uncertain, but it is conceivable that caribou learn to avoid the risk of encounter and roads. Responses by females with vulnerable calves to the risk of encounter and risk of being killed might be explained by a trade‐off between these two risk types and a prioritization on the risk of encounter. Despite the capacity to alter their responses to risk, the global decline in Rangifer populations (caribou and wild reindeer) suggests these behaviors are insufficient to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic disturbances.     

Offspring risk and sibling risk for multilocus traits

The recurrence risk of a trait in a relative of type R is the probability that an individual who is in relationship of type R to an affected proband has the trait. It is intuitively clear that closer relationships lead to higher recurrence risks. However, no exact analysis of this phenomenon has been presented for multilocus traits. We prove a theorem that shows how recurrence risks are influenced by the degree of closeness of the relationship R. For example, our theorem implies that sibling risk is always higher than offspring risk. The loci influencing the trait are assumed to be autosomal and unlinked, but arbitrary epistasis between the loci is allowed. We give a detailed proof of the theorem by using stochastic matrices. A shorter proof based on the additive and dominance genetic variances is also sketched. Additionally, we also give some empirical results and discuss generalizations of the theorem.     

Potential role of new therapies in modifying cardiovascular risk in overweight patients with metabolic risk factors

The serotonin, norepinephrine, dopamine, and endocannabinoid systems, as well as a host of other systems, mediate hunger and satiety signals. Weight loss agents that modulate appetite through pure central nervous system pathways (e.g., APD356, a selective serotonin receptor agonist) and peripheral signals to central nervous system pathways (e.g., cholecystokinin receptor agonists and ghrelin receptor antagonists) are in preclinical or early phase studies. Both devices and pharmacological compounds that facilitate weight loss and/or target multiple components of metabolic risk also are in development. One of the medications that has completed extensive phase III clinical trials and may become available in the foreseeable future is rimonabant, a selective cannabinoid 1-receptor antagonist. Drugs that improve adipose tissue function or fatty acid metabolism (e.g., AOD9604) also are in clinical trials. Some currently available medications may reduce metabolic complications without treating obesity per se (e.g., acipimox, pioglitazone). Surgically implanted gastric pacemaker systems that modulate vagus nerve activity and delay gastric emptying are under study.