Directional positive selection on an allele of arbitrary dominance

Most models of positive directional selection assume codominance of the beneficial allele. We examine the importance of this assumption by implementing a coalescent model of positive directional selection with arbitrary dominance. We find that, for a given mean fixation time, a beneficial allele has a much weaker effect on diversity at linked neutral sites when the allele is recessive.     

Estimating the time since the fixation of a beneficial allele

The fixation of a beneficial allele in a population leaves a well-characterized signature in patterns of nucleotide variation at linked sites. This signature can be used to estimate the time since fixation from patterns of polymorphism in extant individuals. I introduce a method to assess the support in polymorphism data for a recent episode of directional positive selection and to estimate the time since fixation. I summarize the polymorphism data by three statistics that carry information about levels of diversity, the allele frequency spectrum, and the extent of allelic associations. Simulations are then used to obtain a sample from the posterior distribution of the time since fixation, conditional on the observed summaries. I test the performance of the approach on simulated data and apply it to the gene tb1 in maize. The data support the recent fixation of a favored allele, consistent with what is known about the importance of tb1 in the domestication process of maize.     

Natural selection at linked sites in humans

Theoretical and empirical work indicates that patterns of neutral polymorphism can be affected by linked, selected mutations. Under background selection, deleterious mutations removed from a population by purifying selection cause a reduction in linked neutral diversity. Under genetic hitchhiking, the rise in frequency and fixation of beneficial mutations also reduces the level of linked neutral polymorphism. Here we review the evidence that levels of neutral polymorphism in humans are affected by selection at linked sites. We then discuss four approaches for distinguishing between background selection and genetic hitchhiking based on (i) the relationship between polymorphism level and recombination rate for neutral loci with high mutation rates, (ii) relative levels of variation on the X chromosome and the autosomes, (iii) the frequency distribution of neutral polymorphisms, and (iv) population-specific patterns of genetic variation. Although the evidence for selection at linked sites in humans is clear, current methods and data do not allow us to clearly assess the relative importance of background selection and genetic hitchhiking in humans. These results contrast with those obtained for Drosophila, where the signals of positive selection are stronger.     

Allele frequency distribution under recurrent selective sweeps

The allele frequency of a neutral variant in a population is pushed either upward or downward by directional selection on a linked beneficial mutation ("selective sweeps"). DNA sequences sampled after the fixation of the beneficial allele thus contain an excess of rare neutral alleles. This study investigates the allele frequency distribution under selective sweep models using analytic approximation and simulation. First, given a single selective sweep at a fixed time, I derive an expression for the sampling probabilities of neutral mutants. This solution can be used to estimate the time of the fixation of a beneficial allele from sequence data. Next, I obtain an approximation to mean allele frequencies under recurrent selective sweeps. Under recurrent sweeps, the frequency spectrum is skewed toward rare alleles. However, the excess of high-frequency derived alleles, previously shown to be a signature of single selective sweeps, disappears with recurrent sweeps. It is shown that, using this approximation and multilocus polymorphism data, genomewide parameters of directional selection can be estimated.     

A method for detecting recent selection in the human genome from allele age estimates

Mutations that have recently increased in frequency by positive natural selection are an important component of naturally occurring variation that affects fitness. To identify such variants, we developed a method to test for recent selection by estimating the age of an allele from the extent of haplotype sharing at linked sites. Neutral coalescent simulations are then used to determine the likelihood of this age given the allele's observed frequency. We applied this method to a common disease allele, the hemochromatosis-associated HFE C282Y mutation. Our results allow us to reject neutral models incorporating plausible human demographic histories for HFE C282Y and one other young but common allele, indicating positive selection at HFE or a linked locus. This method will be useful for scanning the human genome for alleles under selection using the haplotype map now being constructed.     

Genomic effects of nucleotide substitutions in Drosophila simulans

Selective fixation of beneficial mutations reduces levels of linked, neutral variation. The magnitude of this "hitchhiking effect" is determined by the strength of selection and the recombination rate between selected and neutral sites. Thus, depending on the values of these parameters and the frequency with which directional selection occurs, the genomic scale over which directional selection reduces levels of linked variation may vary widely. Here we present a permutation-based analysis of nucleotide polymorphisms and fixations in Drosophila simulans. We show evidence of pervasive small-scale hitchhiking effects in this lineage. Furthermore, our results reveal that different types of fixations are associated with different levels of linked variation.     

The classical hitchhiking model with continuous mutational pressure and purifying selection

Detecting selective sweeps driven by strong positive selection and localizing the targets of selection in the genome play a major role in modern population genetics and genomics. Most of these analyses are based on the classical model of genetic hitchhiking proposed by Maynard Smith and Haigh (1974, Genetical Research, 23, 23). Here, we consider extensions of the classical two‐locus model. Introducing mutation at the strongly selected site, we analyze the conditions under which soft sweeps may arise. We identify a new parameter (the ratio of the beneficial mutation rate to the selection coefficient) that characterizes the occurrence of multiple‐origin soft sweeps. Furthermore, we quantify the hitchhiking effect when the polymorphism at the linked locus is not neutral but maintained in a mutation‐selection balance. In this case, we find a smaller relative reduction of heterozygosity at the linked site than for a neutral polymorphism. In our analysis, we use a semi‐deterministic approach; i.e., we analyze the frequency process of the beneficial allele in an infinitely large population when its frequency is above a certain threshold; however, for very small frequencies in the initial phase after the onset of selection we rely on diffusion theory.     

Hitchhiking effect of a beneficial mutation spreading in a subdivided population

A central problem in population genetics is to detect and analyze positive natural selection by which beneficial mutations are driven to fixation. The hitchhiking effect of a rapidly spreading beneficial mutation, which results in local removal of standing genetic variation, allows such an analysis using DNA sequence polymorphism. However, the current mathematical theory that predicts the pattern of genetic hitchhiking relies on the assumption that a beneficial mutation increases to a high frequency in a single random-mating population, which is certainly violated in reality. Individuals in natural populations are distributed over a geographic space. The spread of a beneficial allele can be delayed by limited migration of individuals over the space and its hitchhiking effect can also be affected. To study this effect of geographic structure on genetic hitchhiking, we analyze a simple model of directional selection in a subdivided population. In contrast to previous studies on hitchhiking in subdivided populations, we mainly investigate the range of sufficiently high migration rates that would homogenize genetic variation at neutral loci. We provide a heuristic mathematical analysis that describes how the genealogical structure at a neutral locus linked to the locus under selection is expected to change in a population divided into two demes. Our results indicate that the overall strength of genetic hitchhiking--the degree to which expected heterozygosity decreases--is diminished by population subdivision, mainly because opportunity for the breakdown of hitchhiking by recombination increases as the spread of the beneficial mutation across demes is delayed when migration rate is much smaller than the strength of selection. Furthermore, the amount of genetic variation after a selective sweep is expected to be unequal over demes: a greater reduction in expected heterozygosity occurs in the subpopulation from which the beneficial mutation originates than in its neighboring subpopulations. This raises a possibility of detecting a "hidden" geographic structure of population by carefully analyzing the pattern of a selective sweep.     

The effects of weak selection on neutral diversity at linked sites

The effects of selection on variability at linked sites have an important influence on levels and patterns of within-population variation across the genome. Most theoretical models of these effects have assumed that selection is sufficiently strong that allele frequency changes at the loci concerned are largely deterministic. These models have led to the conclusion that directional selection for selectively favorable mutations, or against recurrent deleterious mutations, reduces nucleotide site diversity at linked neutral sites. Recent work has shown, however, that fixations of weakly selected mutations, accompanied by significant stochastic changes in allele frequencies, can sometimes cause higher diversity at linked sites when compared with the effects of fixations of neutral mutations. This study extends this work by deriving approximate expressions for the mean conditional times to fixation and loss of mutations subject to selection, and analyzing the conditions under which selection increases rather than reduces these times. Simulations are used to examine the relations between diversity at a neutral site and the fixation and loss times of mutations at a linked site that is subject to selection. It is shown that the long-term level of neutral diversity can be increased over the purely neutral value by recurrent fixations and losses of linked, weakly selected dominant or partially dominant favorable mutations, or linked recessive or partially recessive deleterious mutations. The results are used to examine the conditions under which associative overdominance, as opposed to background selection, is likely to operate.     

Genealogies and weak purifying selection

The assumption that selection alters the genealogical tree of a sample of alleles from a population relative to the neutral expectation underlies several "tests of neutrality." Two recent papers have studied the effect of purifying selection; their suggestive but incomplete results indicate that, in the single site case, the shape of a gene genealogy for a locus may differ only from the neutral expectation. We verify this finding for weak selection using the "ancestral selection graph." We consider a wider range of models, including both a four-allele single-site model and an infinite-sites model. Our results confirm the previous claim for the symmetric-mutation single site model. We emphasize, however, that a neutral-seeming genealogy is consistent with detectable effects of selection on the distribution of allele frequences within the sample. With selection operating, the information about a sample cannot be reduced to the genealogy. As a result, a distinction needs to be made between the selected sites themselves, for which the genealogy offers insufficient information, and linked neutral variation. This distinction seems to have been overlooked in previous papers, yet it has significant implications for the interpretation of data on DNA sequence variation. In particular, it predicts that under purifying selection, the frequency spectrum of neutral mutations will not reflect the skew toward rare polymorphisms at replacement sites even if there is no recombination between them. We caution, however, that the effect of weak selection on the genealogy is specific to the model; a (more realistic) model of multiple linked sites could lead to a more distorted genealogy than is observed for a single site.     

Natural Selection and Recombination Rate Variation Shape Nucleotide Polymorphism Across the Genomes of Three Related Populus Species

A central aim of evolutionary genomics is to identify the relative roles that various evolutionary forces have played in generating and shaping genetic variation within and among species. Here we use whole-genome resequencing data to characterize and compare genome-wide patterns of nucleotide polymorphism, site frequency spectrum, and population-scaled recombination rates in three species of Populus: Populus tremula, P. tremuloides, and P. trichocarpa. We find that P. tremuloides has the highest level of genome-wide variation, skewed allele frequencies, and population-scaled recombination rates, whereas P. trichocarpa harbors the lowest. Our findings highlight multiple lines of evidence suggesting that natural selection, due to both purifying and positive selection, has widely shaped patterns of nucleotide polymorphism at linked neutral sites in all three species. Differences in effective population sizes and rates of recombination largely explain the disparate magnitudes and signatures of linked selection that we observe among species. The present work provides the first phylogenetic comparative study on a genome-wide scale in forest trees. This information will also improve our ability to understand how various evolutionary forces have interacted to influence genome evolution among related species.     

Pervasive Hitchhiking at Coding and Regulatory Sites in Humans

Much effort and interest have focused on assessing the importance of natural selection, particularly positive natural selection, in shaping the human genome. Although scans for positive selection have identified candidate loci that may be associated with positive selection in humans, such scans do not indicate whether adaptation is frequent in general in humans. Studies based on the reasoning of the MacDonald–Kreitman test, which, in principle, can be used to evaluate the extent of positive selection, suggested that adaptation is detectable in the human genome but that it is less common than in Drosophila or Escherichia coli. Both positive and purifying natural selection at functional sites should affect levels and patterns of polymorphism at linked nonfunctional sites. Here, we search for these effects by analyzing patterns of neutral polymorphism in humans in relation to the rates of recombination, functional density, and functional divergence with chimpanzees. We find that the levels of neutral polymorphism are lower in the regions of lower recombination and in the regions of higher functional density or divergence. These correlations persist after controlling for the variation in GC content, density of simple repeats, selective constraint, mutation rate, and depth of sequencing coverage. We argue that these results are most plausibly explained by the effects of natural selection at functional sites—either recurrent selective sweeps or background selection—on the levels of linked neutral polymorphism. Natural selection at both coding and regulatory sites appears to affect linked neutral polymorphism, reducing neutral polymorphism by 6% genome-wide and by 11% in the gene-rich half of the human genome. These findings suggest that the effects of natural selection at linked sites cannot be ignored in the study of neutral human polymorphism.     

Patterns of neutral diversity under general models of selective sweeps

Two major sources of stochasticity in the dynamics of neutral alleles result from resampling of finite populations (genetic drift) and the random genetic background of nearby selected alleles on which the neutral alleles are found (linked selection). There is now good evidence that linked selection plays an important role in shaping polymorphism levels in a number of species. One of the best-investigated models of linked selection is the recurrent full-sweep model, in which newly arisen selected alleles fix rapidly. However, the bulk of selected alleles that sweep into the population may not be destined for rapid fixation. Here we develop a general model of recurrent selective sweeps in a coalescent framework, one that generalizes the recurrent full-sweep model to the case where selected alleles do not sweep to fixation. We show that in a large population, only the initial rapid increase of a selected allele affects the genealogy at partially linked sites, which under fairly general assumptions are unaffected by the subsequent fate of the selected allele. We also apply the theory to a simple model to investigate the impact of recurrent partial sweeps on levels of neutral diversity and find that for a given reduction in diversity, the impact of recurrent partial sweeps on the frequency spectrum at neutral sites is determined primarily by the frequencies rapidly achieved by the selected alleles. Consequently, recurrent sweeps of selected alleles to low frequencies can have a profound effect on levels of diversity but can leave the frequency spectrum relatively unperturbed. In fact, the limiting coalescent model under a high rate of sweeps to low frequency is identical to the standard neutral model. The general model of selective sweeps we describe goes some way toward providing a more flexible framework to describe genomic patterns of diversity than is currently available.     

The Effect of Linkage on Establishment and Survival of Locally Beneficial Mutations

We study invasion and survival of weakly beneficial mutations arising in linkage to an established migration–selection polymorphism. Our focus is on a continent–island model of migration, with selection at two biallelic loci for adaptation to the island environment. Combining branching and diffusion processes, we provide the theoretical basis for understanding the evolution of islands of divergence, the genetic architecture of locally adaptive traits, and the importance of so-called “divergence hitchhiking” relative to other mechanisms, such as “genomic hitchhiking”, chromosomal inversions, or translocations. We derive approximations to the invasion probability and the extinction time of a de novo mutation. Interestingly, the invasion probability is maximized at a nonzero recombination rate if the focal mutation is sufficiently beneficial. If a proportion of migrants carries a beneficial background allele, the mutation is less likely to become established. Linked selection may increase the survival time by several orders of magnitude. By altering the timescale of stochastic loss, it can therefore affect the dynamics at the focal site to an extent that is of evolutionary importance, especially in small populations. We derive an effective migration rate experienced by the weakly beneficial mutation, which accounts for the reduction in gene flow imposed by linked selection. Using the concept of the effective migration rate, we also quantify the long-term effects on neutral variation embedded in a genome with arbitrarily many sites under selection. Patterns of neutral diversity change qualitatively and quantitatively as the position of the neutral locus is moved along the chromosome. This will be useful for population-genomic inference. Our results strengthen the emerging view that physically linked selection is biologically relevant if linkage is tight or if selection at the background locus is strong.     

A Coalescent Model for a Sweep of a Unique Standing Variant

The use of genetic polymorphism data to understand the dynamics of adaptation and identify the loci that are involved has become a major pursuit of modern evolutionary genetics. In addition to the classical “hard sweep” hitchhiking model, recent research has drawn attention to the fact that the dynamics of adaptation can play out in a variety of different ways and that the specific signatures left behind in population genetic data may depend somewhat strongly on these dynamics. One particular model for which a large number of empirical examples are already known is that in which a single derived mutation arises and drifts to some low frequency before an environmental change causes the allele to become beneficial and sweeps to fixation. Here, we pursue an analytical investigation of this model, bolstered and extended via simulation study. We use coalescent theory to develop an analytical approximation for the effect of a sweep from standing variation on the genealogy at the locus of the selected allele and sites tightly linked to it. We show that the distribution of haplotypes that the selected allele is present on at the time of the environmental change can be approximated by considering recombinant haplotypes as alleles in the infinite-alleles model. We show that this approximation can be leveraged to make accurate predictions regarding patterns of genetic polymorphism following such a sweep. We then use simulations to highlight which sources of haplotypic information are likely to be most useful in distinguishing this model from neutrality, as well as from other sweep models, such as the classic hard sweep and multiple-mutation soft sweeps. We find that in general, adaptation from a unique standing variant will likely be difficult to detect on the basis of genetic polymorphism data from a single population time point alone, and when it can be detected, it will be difficult to distinguish from other varieties of selective sweeps. Samples from multiple populations and/or time points have the potential to ease this difficulty.     

Evidence for a selective sweep in the wapl region of Drosophila melanogaster

A scan of the X chromosome of a European Drosophila melanogaster population revealed evidence for the recent action of positive directional selection at individual loci. In this study we analyze one such region that showed no polymorphism in the genome scan (located in cytological division 2C10-2E1). We detect a 60.5-kb stretch of DNA encompassing the genes ph-d, ph-p, CG3835, bcn92, Pgd, wapl, and Cyp4d1, which almost completely lacks variation in the European sample. Loci flanking this region show a skewed frequency spectrum at segregating sites, strong haplotype structure, and high levels of linkage disequilibrium. Neutrality tests reveal that these data are unlikely under both the neutral equilibrium model and the simple bottleneck scenarios. In contrast, newly developed maximum-likelihood ratio tests suggest that strong selection has acted recently on the region under investigation, causing a selective sweep. Evidence that this sweep may have originated in an ancestral population in Africa is presented.     

Identification of a locus under complex positive selection in Drosophila simulans by haplotype mapping and composite-likelihood estimation

The recent action of positive selection is expected to influence patterns of intraspecific DNA sequence variation in chromosomal regions linked to the selected locus. These effects include decreased polymorphism, increased linkage disequilibrium, and an increased frequency of derived variants. These effects are all expected to dissipate with distance from the selected locus due to recombination. Therefore, in regions of high recombination, it should be possible to localize a target of selection to a relatively small interval. Previously described patterns of intraspecific variation in three tandemly arranged, testes-expressed genes (janusA, janusB, and ocnus) in Drosophila simulans included all three of these features. Here we expand the original sample and also survey nucleotide polymorphism at three neighboring loci. On the basis of recombination events between derived and ancestral alleles, we localize the target of selection to a 1.5-kb region surrounding janusB. A composite-likelihood-ratio test based on the spatial distribution and frequency of derived polymorphic variants corroborates this result and provides an estimate of the strength of selection. However, the data are difficult to reconcile with the simplest model of positive selection, whereas a new composite-likelihood method suggests that the data are better described by a model in which the selected allele has not yet gone to fixation.     

A population genetics-phylogenetics approach to inferring natural selection in coding sequences

Through an analysis of polymorphism within and divergence between species, we can hope to learn about the distribution of selective effects of mutations in the genome, changes in the fitness landscape that occur over time, and the location of sites involved in key adaptations that distinguish modern-day species. We introduce a novel method for the analysis of variation in selection pressures within and between species, spatially along the genome and temporally between lineages. We model codon evolution explicitly using a joint population genetics-phylogenetics approach that we developed for the construction of multiallelic models with mutation, selection, and drift. Our approach has the advantage of performing direct inference on coding sequences, inferring ancestral states probabilistically, utilizing allele frequency information, and generalizing to multiple species. We use a Bayesian sliding window model for intragenic variation in selection coefficients that efficiently combines information across sites and captures spatial clustering within the genome. To demonstrate the utility of the method, we infer selective pressures acting in Drosophila melanogaster and D. simulans from polymorphism and divergence data for 100 X-linked coding regions.