Schistosomiasis mansoni in areas of low transmission: epidemiological characterization of Venezuelan foci

Severe schistosomiasis is a rare event in Venezuela nowadays, after a successful national campaign by the Schistosomiasis Control Program. Unfortunately, this program has practically disappeared, and snail surveillance in field is not a priority, anymore. Thus, schistosomiasis has become a neglected disease in this country. However, surveys in different populations from the endemic area have shown particular epidemiological features described herein. In five communities we evaluated 2,175 persons and searched for the presence of Biomphalaria glabrata snails. Some markers were used for classifying schistosomiasis foci: mean age of the persons with Schistosoma mansoni eggs in the stools, serological tests, presence of B. glabrata snails, and intensity of infection. Places without B. glabrata snails and with few schistosomiasis cases were defined as "past transmission sites"; a site with abundant snails but few cases was defined as "potential risk"; "new transmission" foci were characterized by the presence of infected snails and young people passing eggs in the stools. A "re-emergent" focus has shared these last features, showing in addition a place where schistosomiasis had been reported before. Recent evidences of active transmission with the increasing dispersion of B. glabrata snails, point out the necessity for the re-establishment of the Schistosomiasis Control Program in Venezuela.     

Reliability of current estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence in the Rainforest Zone of the state of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil

The Program for Schistosomiasis Control within the Unified Health System (PCE-SUS) was implemented by 1999 in the Rainforest Zone or "Zona da Mata" of Pernambuco (ZMP) aiming to carry out biennial stool surveys of whole populations through municipal health organs followed by treatment of the positives through the local units of the Family Health Program (PSF). Yearly reports from the Health Department of Pernambuco State (SES/PE) from 2002 to 2004 on the PCE-SUS surveys were assessed to evaluate whether the current estimates of prevalence in the municipalities of the ZMP are based on reliable samples so as to allow considerations on the real situation of schistosomiasis in that area. The surveys carried out in that period did not follow the major principles underlying sampling design, thus posing problems in both precision and validity of the estimates. Only 12 out of 43 municipalities had minimally reliable estimates: five with moderate prevalence (10-50%) and seven with low prevalence (< 10%). Surveys with appropriate sampling procedures aimed either at representative target groups (school-aged children) or communities are recommended for the ZMP and other endemic areas not only to provide reliable information on the current situation of schistosomiasis but also to plan adequate control strategies.     

Final report of the Conference on the eradicability of Onchocerciasis

Sixty-four experts from a variety of disciplines attended a Conference on the Eradicability of Onchocerciasis at The Carter Center, in Atlanta GA, held January 22-24, 2002. The Conference, which was organized by The Carter Center and the World Health Organization, with funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, addressed the question: "Is onchocerciasis (River Blindness) eradicable with current knowledge and tools?" Former US President Jimmy Carter attended part of the final plenary proceedings on January 24.The Conference consisted of a series of presentations by invited expert speakers (Appendix C) and further deliberations in four workgroups (Appendix D) followed by plenary discussion of major conclusions. The presentations underlined epidemiological and entomological differences between onchocerciasis in Africa and the Americas. Whilst onchocerciasis in Africa covers extensive areas and is associated with striking human and fly population migrations and remarkably efficient black fly vectors, in the Americas onchocerciasis is found in limited foci. Human and fly population migration are not major problems in the Americas, where most black fly species are inefficient, though some efficient black flies are also found there. Vector control has been effectively applied in the Onchocerciasis Control Program in West Africa (OCP) with remarkable results, interrupting transmission in most parts of the original Program area. The use of ivermectin has given variable results: while ivermectin treatment has been effective in all endemic areas in controlling onchocerciasis as a public health problem, its potential for interrupting transmission is more promising in hypo- and mesoendemic areas. The African Program for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC), which supports onchocerciasis control in endemic African countries outside the OCP, applies ivermectin, its principal control tool, to communities in high-risk areas as determined by rapid epidemiological mapping of onchocerciasis (REMO) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In the Americas, through support of the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program in the Americas (OEPA), a strategy of bi-annual ivermectin treatment of at least 85% of the eligible populations in all endemic communities is showing very good results and promises to be effective in eliminating onchocerciasis in the region.The Conference concluded that onchocerciasis is not eradicable using current tools due to the major barriers to eradication in Africa. However, the Conference also concluded that in most if not all the Americas, and possibly Yemen and some sites in Africa, transmission of onchocerciasis can be eliminated using current tools. The Conference recommended that where interruption of transmission is feasible and cost effective, programs should aim for that goal using all appropriate and available interventions so that the Onchocerca volvulus can eventually be eliminated and interventions halted. Although interruption of transmission of onchocerciasis cannot currently be achieved in most of Africa, the Conference recommended that efforts be made to preserve areas in West Africa made free of onchocerciasis transmission through the Onchocerciasis Control Program over the past 25 years. In the remaining hyper and mesoendemic foci in Africa, continued annual distribution of ivermectin will keep onchocerciasis controlled to a point where it is no longer a public health problem or constraint to economic development.     

Schistosomiasis in Indonesia: past and present

Schistosomiasis is endemic in Indonesia in two isolated areas, Lindu valley and Napu valley, both located in the Province of Central Sulawesi. In 1940, a prevalence survey was initiated in Lake Lindu, which indicated a Schistosoma japonicum infection prevalence of 56% among the population of Anca, Tomado and Langko villages. Another survey was conducted in 1973 in Napu valley and very high infection prevalences of up to 72% were found among the population in Winowanga village. Since then, comprehensive studies on the epidemiology and the effects of control have been carried out in 24 endemic villages in both areas. Over the past six decades, schistosomiasis control has been implemented and the average prevalence is now much lower than before the control programme was launched. In 2006, it was 0.49% in 7 villages in Lindu valley. In Napu valley, the average infection prevalence among the population of 17 villages was 1.08% in the same year. Again in 2006, the prevalence of infection in snails ranged from 0 to 13.4% and from 0 to 9.1% in Napu and Lindu valleys, respectively. The highest prevalence among snails was found in Dodolo village. The prevalence of S. japonicum in the reservoir host Rattus spp. ranged from 0 to 20% and the highest prevalence was again found in Dodolo village. Contemporary data suggest that transmission of schistosomiasis is still ongoing in Indonesia despite regular surveillance and control activities covering the whole endemic area.     

Deconstructing the eradication of new world screwworm in North America: retrospective analysis and climate warming effects

Before its eradication from North America, the subtropical‐tropical new world screwworm fly Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) invaded southwestern temperate areas of the U.S.A., where it caused myiasis in wildlife and livestock. Outbreaks of the fly occurred during years when adult migrants were carried northward on North American monsoon winds from the northern areas of Mexico and south Texas. We deconstruct, retrospectively, the biology and the effect of weather on the eradication of the fly in North America. Screwworm was found to be an ideal candidate for eradication using the sterile insect technique (SIT) because females mate only once, whereas males are polygynous, and, although it has a high reproductive potential, field population growth rates are low in tropical areas. In northern areas, eradication was enhanced by cool‐cold weather, whereas eradication in tropical Mexico and Central America is explained by the SIT. Despite low average efficacy of SIT releases (approximately 1.7%), the added pressure of massive SIT releases reduced intrinsically low fly populations, leading to mate‐limited extinction. Non‐autochthonous cases of myiasis occur in North America and, if the fly reestablishes, climate warming by 2045–2055 will expand the area of favourability and increase the frequency and severity of outbreaks.     

A model for long-distance dispersal of boll weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

The boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis (Boheman), has been a major insect pest of cotton production in the US, accounting for yield losses and control costs on the order of several billion US dollars since the introduction of the pest in 1892. Boll weevil eradication programs have eliminated reproducing populations in nearly 94%, and progressed toward eradication within the remaining 6%, of cotton production areas. However, the ability of weevils to disperse and reinfest eradicated zones threatens to undermine the previous investment toward eradication of this pest. In this study, the HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion model was used to simulate daily wind-aided dispersal of weevils from the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Simulated weevil dispersal was compared with weekly capture of weevils in pheromone traps along highway trap lines between the LRGV and the South Texas / Winter Garden zone of the Texas Boll Weevil Eradication Program. A logistic regression model was fit to the probability of capturing at least one weevil in individual pheromone traps relative to specific values of simulated weevil dispersal, which resulted in 60.4% concordance, 21.3% discordance, and 18.3% ties in estimating captures and non-captures. During the first full year of active eradication with widespread insecticide applications in 2006, the dispersal model accurately estimated 71.8%, erroneously estimated 12.5%, and tied 15.7% of capture and non-capture events. Model simulations provide a temporal risk assessment over large areas of weevil reinfestation resulting from dispersal by prevailing winds. Eradication program managers can use the model risk assessment information to effectively schedule and target enhanced trapping, crop scouting, and insecticide applications.     

Low transmission areas of schistosomiasis in Venezuela: consequences on the diagnosis, treatment, and control

Schistosomiasis low transmission areas as Venezuela, can be defined as those where the vector exists, the prevalence of active cases is under 25%, individuals with mild intensity of infection predominate and are mostly asymptomatic. These areas are the consequence of effective control programs, however, "silent" epidemiological places are difficult to trace, avoiding the opportune diagnosis and treatment of infected persons. Clinic and abdominal ultrasound have not shown to discriminate infected from uninfected persons in areas where besides Schistosoma mansoni, intestinal parasites are the rule. Under these conditions, serology remains as a very valuable diagnostic tool, since it gives a closer approximation to the true prevalence. In this sense, circumoval precipitin test, ELISA-SEA with sodium metaperiodate, and alkaline phosphatase immunoassay joined to coprology allow the identification of the "schistosomiasis cases". In relation to public health, schistosomiasis has been underestimated by the sanitary authorities and the investment on its control is being transferred to other diseases of major social and political relevance neglecting sanitary efforts and allowing growth of snail population. Some strategies of diagnosis and control should be done before schistosomiasis reemergence occurs in low transmission areas.     

The prevalence of African animal trypanosomoses and tsetse presence in Western Senegal

In 2005, the Government of Senegal initiated a tsetse eradication campaign in the Niayes and La Petite C?te aiming at the removal of African Animal Trypanosomosis (AAT), which is one of the main constraints to the development of more effective cattle production systems. The target area has particular meteorological and ecological characteristics that provide great potential for animal production, but it is unfortunately still infested by the riverine tsetse species Glossina palpalis gambiensis Vanderplank (Diptera: Glossinidae). The tsetse project in Senegal has adopted an area-wide integrated pest management (AW-IPM) approach that targets the entire tsetse population within a delimited area. During the first phase of the programme, a feasibility study was conducted that included the collection of entomological, veterinary, population genetics, environmental and socioeconomic baseline data. This paper presents the parasitological and serological prevalence data of AAT in cattle residing inside and outside the tsetse-infested areas of the target zone prior to the control effort. At the herd level, a mean parasitological prevalence of 2.4% was observed, whereas a serological prevalence of 28.7%, 4.4%, and 0.3% was obtained for Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense and T. brucei brucei, respectively. The observed infection risk was 3 times higher for T. congolense and T. vivax in the tsetse-infested than in the assumed tsetse-free areas. Moreover, AAT prevalence decreased significantly with distance from the nearest tsetse captured which indicated that cyclical transmission of the parasites by tsetse was predominant over mechanical transmission by numerous other biting flies present. The importance of these results for the development of a control strategy for the planned AW-IPM campaign is discussed.     

Schistosomiasis mansoni in low transmission areas: abdominal ultrasound

In endemic areas with low prevalence and low intensity of infection, the diagnosis of hepatic pathology due to the Schistosoma mansoni infection is very difficult. In order to establish the hepatic morbidity, a double-blind study was achieved in Venezuelan endemic areas, with one group of patients with schistosomiasis and the other one of non-infected people, that were evaluated clinically and by abdominal ultrasound using the Cairo classification. Schistosomiasis diagnosis was established based on parasitologic and serological tests. The increase of the hepatic size at midclavicular and midsternal lines (in hepatometry) and the hard liver consistency were the clinical parameters able to differentiate infected persons from non infected ones, as well as the presence of left lobe hepatomegaly detected by abdominal ultrasound. The periportal thickening, especially the mild form, was frequent in all age groups in both infected and uninfected patients. There was not correlation between the intensity of infection and ultrasound under the current circumstances. Our data suggest that in Venezuela, a low endemic area of transmission of schistosomiasis, the hepatic morbidity is mild and uncommon. The Cairo classification seems to overestimate the prevalence of periportal pathology. The specificity of the method must be improved, especially for the recognition of precocious pathology. Other causes of hepatopathies must be investigated.     

Impact of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission: assessing the empirical evidence that repeated ivermectin mass treatments may lead to elimination/eradication in West-Africa

BACKGROUND: The Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) in West Africa has been closed down at the end of 2002. All subsequent control will be transferred to the participating countries and will almost entirely be based on periodic mass treatment with ivermectin. This makes the question whether elimination of infection or eradication of onchocerciasis can be achieved using this strategy of critical importance. This study was undertaken to explore this issue. METHODS: An empirical approach was adopted in which a comprehensive analysis was undertaken of available data on the impact of more than a decade of ivermectin treatment on onchocerciasis infection and transmission. Relevant entomological and epidemiological data from 14 river basins in the OCP and one basin in Cameroon were reviewed. Areas were distinguished by frequency of treatment (6-monthly or annually), endemicity level and additional control measures such as vector control. Assessment of results were in terms of epidemiological and entomological parameters, and as a measure of inputs, therapeutic and geographical coverage rates were used. RESULTS: In all of the river basins studied, ivermectin treatment sharply reduced prevalence and intensity of infection. Significant transmission, however, is still ongoing in some basins after 10-12 years of ivermectin treatment. In other basins, transmission may have been interrupted, but this needs to be confirmed by in-depth evaluations. In one mesoendemic basin, where 20 rounds of four-monthly treatment reduced prevalence of infection to levels as low as 2-3%, there was significant recrudescence of infection within a few years after interruption of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Ivermectin treatment has been very successful in eliminating onchocerciasis as a public health problem. However, the results presented in this paper make it almost certain that repeated ivermectin mass treatment will not lead to the elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis from West Africa. Data on 6-monthly treatments are not sufficient to draw definitive conclusions.     

Progress in controlling the reinvasion of windborne vectors into the western area of the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa

Since vector control began in 1975, waves of Simulium sirbanum and S. damnosum s.str., the principal vectors of severe blinding onchocerciasis in the West African savannas, have reinvaded treated rivers inside the original boundaries of the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa. Larviciding of potential source breeding sites has shown that these 'savanna' species are capable of travelling and carrying Onchocerca infection for at least 500 km northeastwards with the monsoon winds in the early rainy season. Vector control has, therefore, been extended progressively westwards. In 1984 the Programme embarked on a major western extension into Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Mali, Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. The transmission resulting from the reinvasion of northern C?te d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso has been reduced by over 95%, but eastern Mali has proved more difficult to protect because of sources in both Guinea and Sierra Leone. Rivers in Sierra Leone were treated for the first time in 1989 and biting and transmission rates in Sierra Leone and Guinea fell by over 90%. Because of treatment problems in some complex rapids and mountainous areas, flies still reinvaded Mali, though biting rates were approximately 70% lower than those recorded before anti-reinvasion treatments started. It was concluded that transmission in eastern Mali has now been reduced to the levels required to control onchocerciasis.     

Protein Microarray Analysis of Antibody Responses to Plasmodium falciparum in Western Kenyan Highland Sites with Differing Transmission Levels

Malaria represents a major public health problem in Africa. In the East African highlands, the high-altitude areas were previously considered too cold to support vector population and parasite transmission, rendering the region particularly prone to epidemic malaria due to the lack of protective immunity of the population. Since the 1980’s, frequent malaria epidemics have been reported and these successive outbreaks may have generated some immunity against Plasmodium falciparum amongst the highland residents. Serological studies reveal indirect evidence of human exposure to the parasite, and can reliably assess prevalence of exposure and transmission intensity in an endemic area. However, the vast majority of serological studies of malaria have been, hereto, limited to a small number of the parasite’s antigens. We surveyed and compared the antibody response profiles of age-stratified sera from residents of two endemic areas in the western Kenyan highlands with differing malaria transmission intensities, during two distinct seasons, against 854 polypeptides of P. falciparum using high-throughput proteomic microarray technology. We identified 107 proteins as serum antibody targets, which were then characterized for their gene ontology biological process and cellular component of the parasite, and showed significant enrichment for categories related to immune evasion, pathogenesis and expression on the host’s cell and parasite’s surface. Additionally, we calculated age-fitted annual seroconversion rates for the immunogenic proteins, and contrasted the age-dependent antibody acquisition for those antigens between the two sampling sites. We observed highly immunogenic antigens that produce stable antibody responses from early age in both sites, as well as less immunogenic proteins that require repeated exposure for stable responses to develop and produce different seroconversion rates between sites. We propose that a combination of highly and less immunogenic proteins could be used in serological surveys to detect differences in malaria transmission levels, distinguishing sites of unstable and stable transmission.     

African Program for Onchocerciasis Control 1995–2010: Impact of Annual Ivermectin Mass Treatment on Off-Target Infectious Diseases

Since its initiation in 1995, the African Program for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has had a substantial impact on the prevalence and burden of onchocerciasis through annual ivermectin mass treatment. Ivermectin is a broad-spectrum anti-parasitic agent that also has an impact on other co-endemic parasitic infections. In this study, we roughly assessed the additional impact of APOC activities on the burden of the most important off-target infections: soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH; ascariasis, trichuriasis, hookworm, and strongyloidiasis), lymphatic filariasis (LF), and scabies. Based on a literature review, we formulated assumptions about the impact of ivermectin treatment on the disease burden of these off-target infections. Using data on the number of ivermectin treatments in APOC regions and the latest estimates of the burden of disease, we then calculated the impact of APOC activities on off-target infections in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We conservatively estimated that between 1995 and 2010, annual ivermectin mass treatment has cumulatively averted about 500 thousand DALYs from co-endemic STH infections, LF, and scabies. This impact comprised approximately an additional 5.5% relative to the total burden averted from onchocerciasis (8.9 million DALYs) and indicates that the overall cost-effectiveness of APOC is even higher than previously reported.     

Projecting the Long-Term Impact of School- or Community-Based Mass-Treatment Interventions for Control of Schistosoma Infection

Background

Schistosomiasis remains a significant health burden in many areas of the world. Morbidity control, focused on limiting infection intensity through periodic delivery of anti-schistosomal medicines, is the thrust of current World Health Organization guidelines (2006) for reduction of Schistosoma-related disease. A new appreciation of the lifetime impact of repeated Schistosoma infection has directed attention toward strategies for greater suppression of parasite infection per se, with the goal of transmission interruption. Variations in drug schedules involving increased population coverage and/or treatment frequency are now undergoing field trials. However, their relative effectiveness in long-term infection suppression is presently unknown.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Our study used available field data to calibrate advanced network models of village-level Schistosoma transmission to project outcomes of six different community- or school age-based programs, as compared to the impact of current 2006 W.H.O. recommended control strategies. We then scored the number of years each of 10 typical villages would remain below 10% infection prevalence (a practicable level associated with minimal prevalence of disease). All strategies that included four annual treatments effectively reduced community prevalence to less than 10%, while programs having yearly gaps (‘holidays’) failed to reach this objective in half of the communities. Effective post-program suppression of infection prevalence persisted in half of the 10 villages for 7–10 years, whereas in five high-risk villages, program effects on prevalence lasted zero to four years only.

Conclusions/Significance

At typical levels of treatment adherence (60 to 70%), current WHO recommendations will likely not achieve effective suppression of Schistosoma prevalence unless implemented for ≥6 years. Following more aggressive 4 year annual intervention, some communities may be able to continue without further intervention for 8–10 years, while in higher-risk communities, annual treatment may prove necessary until eco-social factors fostering transmission are removed. Effective ongoing surveillance and locally targeted annual intervention must then become their mainstays of control.     

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus

Porcine reproductive and respiratory disease (PRRS) is an economically important disease around the globe; it has been estimated to cost the swine industry in USA approximately 560 million US dollars annually. It is well established that PRRS is caused by an enveloped, single-stranded positive-sense RNA virus known as porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV). The inability to successfully control PRRS across farms via traditional methods (e.g. vaccine and animal flow) has led to a growing interest in area-based eradication. Important to such an initiative is information on PRRSV transmission within and between herds and intervention strategies to prevent its spread. This paper will review the current literature on selected areas of PRRS known to be important to the topic of pathogen elimination, including etiology, clinical manifestations, direct and indirect routes of transmission, as well as discuss measures for disease control, prevention and eradication.     

A geographical spread of vaccine-resistance in avian influenza epidemics

Vaccination can be a useful tool for control of avian influenza outbreaks in poultry, but its use is reconsidered in most of the countries worldwide because of its negative effects on the disease control. One of the most important negative effects is the potential for emergence of vaccine-resistant viruses. Actually, in the vaccination program in China and Mexico, several vaccine-resistant strains were confirmed. Vaccine-resistant strains usually cause a loss of the protection effectiveness of vaccination. Therefore, a vaccination program that engenders the emergence of the resistant strain might promote the spread of the resistant strain and undermine the control of the infectious disease, even if the vaccination protects against the transmission of a vaccine-sensitive strain. We designed and analyzed a deterministic patch-structured model in heterogeneous areas (with or without vaccination) illustrating transmission of vaccine-sensitive and vaccine-resistant strains during a vaccination program. We found that the vaccination program can eradicate the vaccine-sensitive strain but lead to a prevalence of vaccine-resistant strain. Further, interestingly, the replacement of viral strain could occur in another area without vaccination through a migration of non-infectious individuals due to an illegal trade of poultry. It is also a novel result that only a complete eradication of both strains in vaccination area can achieve the complete eradication in another areas. Thus we can obtain deeper understanding of an effect of vaccination for better development of vaccination strategies to control avian influenza spread.     

禾谷缢蚜对小麦黄矮病传播能力变异的研究

测试结果禾谷缢蚜对小麦黄矮病(BYDV)传播能力显著提高。由此可使该病由北方干旱,半干旱的中、低产麦区往水地高产麦区,甚至南方麦区扩展曼延。已于1988、1989年秋季导致陕西关中西部水地,1989年春季导致南方麦区四川荣县小麦黄矮病发生流行。     

Malaria control and the evolution of drug resistance: an intriguing link

Does antimalarial drug resistance evolve faster in areas of high or low transmission? Suggestions that resistance evolves faster in areas of low transmission cast a cloud over control measures, such as bednet provision and insecticide spraying, by implying that their impact could be offset by the enhanced evolution of drug resistance. Theoretical analyses are ambivalent on this question, but a recent field study has attempted to measure the relationship empirically, and has generated some intriguing data: antimalarial drug resistance could be inhibited in the early stages of control programmes, only starting to resurge as the disease nears eradication.     

Global eradication of lymphatic filariasis: the value of chronic disease control in parasite elimination programmes

The ultimate goal of the global programme against lymphatic filariasis is eradication through irrevocable cessation of transmission using 4 to 6 years of annual single dose mass drug administration. The costs of eradication, managerial impediments to executing national control programmes, and scientific uncertainty about transmission endpoints, are challenges to the success of this effort, especially in areas of high endemicity where financial resources are limited. We used a combined analysis of empirical community data describing the association between infection and chronic disease prevalence, mathematical modelling, and economic analyses to identify and evaluate the feasibility of setting an infection target level at which the chronic pathology attributable to lymphatic filariasis--lymphoedema of the extremities and hydroceles--becomes negligible in the face of continuing transmission as a first stage option in achieving the elimination of this parasitic disease. The results show that microfilaria prevalences below a threshold of 3.55% at a blood sampling volume of 1 ml could constitute readily achievable and sustainable targets to control lymphatic filarial disease. They also show that as a result of the high marginal cost of curing the last few individuals to achieve elimination, maximal benefits can occur at this threshold. Indeed, a key finding from our coupled economic and epidemiological analysis is that when initial uncertainty regarding eradication occurs and prospects for resolving this uncertainty over time exist, it is economically beneficial to adopt a flexible, sequential, eradication strategy based on controlling chronic disease initially.     

Spatially Explicit Modeling of Schistosomiasis Risk in Eastern China Based on a Synthesis of Epidemiological,Environmental and Intermediate Host Genetic Data

Schistosomiasis japonica is a major parasitic disease threatening millions of people in China. Though overall prevalence was greatly reduced during the second half of the past century, continued persistence in some areas and cases of re-emergence in others remain major concerns. As many regions in China are approaching disease elimination, obtaining quantitative data on Schistosoma japonicum parasites is increasingly difficult. This study examines the distribution of schistosomiasis in eastern China, taking advantage of the fact that the single intermediate host serves as a major transmission bottleneck. Epidemiological, population-genetic and high-resolution ecological data are combined to construct a predictive model capable of estimating the probability that schistosomiasis occurs in a target area (“spatially explicit schistosomiasis risk”). Results show that intermediate host genetic parameters are correlated with the distribution of endemic disease areas, and that five explanatory variables—altitude, minimum temperature, annual precipitation, genetic distance, and haplotype diversity—discriminate between endemic and non-endemic zones. Model predictions are correlated with human infection rates observed at the county level. Visualization of the model indicates that the highest risks of disease occur in the Dongting and Poyang lake regions, as expected, as well as in some floodplain areas of the Yangtze River. High risk areas are interconnected, suggesting the complex hydrological interplay of Dongting and Poyang lakes with the Yangtze River may be important for maintaining schistosomiasis in eastern China. Results demonstrate the value of genetic parameters for risk modeling, and particularly for reducing model prediction error. The findings have important consequences both for understanding the determinants of the current distribution of S. japonicum infections, and for designing future schistosomiasis surveillance and control strategies. The results also highlight how genetic information on taxa that constitute bottlenecks to disease transmission can be of value for risk modeling.