Cascading Failures in Spatially-Embedded Random Networks

Cascading failures constitute an important vulnerability of interconnected systems. Here we focus on the study of such failures on networks in which the connectivity of nodes is constrained by geographical distance. Specifically, we use random geometric graphs as representative examples of such spatial networks, and study the properties of cascading failures on them in the presence of distributed flow. The key finding of this study is that the process of cascading failures is non-self-averaging on spatial networks, and thus, aggregate inferences made from analyzing an ensemble of such networks lead to incorrect conclusions when applied to a single network, no matter how large the network is. We demonstrate that this lack of self-averaging disappears with the introduction of a small fraction of long-range links into the network. We simulate the well studied preemptive node removal strategy for cascade mitigation and show that it is largely ineffective in the case of spatial networks. We introduce an altruistic strategy designed to limit the loss of network nodes in the event of a cascade triggering failure and show that it performs better than the preemptive strategy. Finally, we consider a real-world spatial network viz. a European power transmission network and validate that our findings from the study of random geometric graphs are also borne out by simulations of cascading failures on the empirical network.     

Prediction of Cascading Failures in Spatial Networks

Cascading overload failures are widely found in large-scale parallel systems and remain a major threat to system reliability; therefore, they are of great concern to maintainers and managers of different systems. Accurate cascading failure prediction can provide useful information to help control networks. However, for a large, gradually growing network with increasing complexity, it is often impractical to explore the behavior of a single node from the perspective of failure propagation. Fortunately, overload failures that propagate through a network exhibit certain spatial-temporal correlations, which allows the study of a group of nodes that share common spatial and temporal characteristics. Therefore, in this study, we seek to predict the failure rates of nodes in a given group using machine-learning methods.We simulated overload failure propagations in a weighted lattice network that start with a center attack and predicted the failure percentages of different groups of nodes that are separated by a given distance. The experimental results of a feedforward neural network (FNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and support vector regression (SVR) all show that these different models can accurately predict the similar behavior of nodes in a given group during cascading overload propagation.     

A Modeling Framework for System Restoration from Cascading Failures

System restoration from cascading failures is an integral part of the overall defense against catastrophic breakdown in networked critical infrastructures. From the outbreak of cascading failures to the system complete breakdown, actions can be taken to prevent failure propagation through the entire network. While most analysis efforts have been carried out before or after cascading failures, restoration during cascading failures has been rarely studied. In this paper, we present a modeling framework to investigate the effects of in-process restoration, which depends strongly on the timing and strength of the restoration actions. Furthermore, in the model we also consider additional disturbances to the system due to restoration actions themselves. We demonstrate that the effect of restoration is also influenced by the combination of system loading level and restoration disturbance. Our modeling framework will help to provide insights on practical restoration from cascading failures and guide improvements of reliability and resilience of actual network systems.     

Cascading Walks Model for Human Mobility Patterns

Background

Uncovering the mechanism behind the scaling laws and series of anomalies in human trajectories is of fundamental significance in understanding many spatio-temporal phenomena. Recently, several models, e.g. the explorations-returns model (Song et al., 2010) and the radiation model for intercity travels (Simini et al., 2012), have been proposed to study the origin of these anomalies and the prediction of human movements. However, an agent-based model that could reproduce most of empirical observations without priori is still lacking.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this paper, considering the empirical findings on the correlations of move-lengths and staying time in human trips, we propose a simple model which is mainly based on the cascading processes to capture the human mobility patterns. In this model, each long-range movement activates series of shorter movements that are organized by the law of localized explorations and preferential returns in prescribed region.

Conclusions/Significance

Based on the numerical simulations and analytical studies, we show more than five statistical characters that are well consistent with the empirical observations, including several types of scaling anomalies and the ultraslow diffusion properties, implying the cascading processes associated with the localized exploration and preferential returns are indeed a key in the understanding of human mobility activities. Moreover, the model shows both of the diverse individual mobility and aggregated scaling displacements, bridging the micro and macro patterns in human mobility. In summary, our model successfully explains most of empirical findings and provides deeper understandings on the emergence of human mobility patterns.     

Societal and Medical Consequences of the Human Genome Project

The Human Genome Project is a US-based molecular biological project, the results of which are likely to be implemented on humans. The sociopolitical dimension of this is highly neglected. The aim of the conference was to fill this gap by drawing together scientists of natural and political sciences to discuss the consequences of the Human Genome Project across the disciplines.     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Bivalent and Quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus Vaccines from a Societal Perspective in Colombia

Objective

To compare costs and effectiveness of three strategies used against cervical cancer (CC) and genital warts: (i) Screening for CC; (ii) Bivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) 16/18 vaccine added to screening; (iii) Quadrivalent HPV 6/11/16/18 vaccine added to screening.

Methods

A Markov model was designed in order to simulate the natural history of the disease from 12 years of age (vaccination) until death. Transition probabilities were selected or adjusted to match the HPV infection profile in Colombia. A systematic review was undertaken in order to derive efficacy values for the two vaccines as well as for the operational characteristics of the cytology test. The societal perspective was used. Effectiveness was measured in number of averted Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYS).

Results

At commercial prices reported for 2010 the two vaccines were shown to be non-cost-effective alternatives when compared with the existing screening strategy. Sensitivity analyses showed that results are affected by the cost of vaccines and their efficacy values, making it difficult to determine with certainty which of the two vaccines has the best cost-effectiveness profile. To be ‘cost-effective’ vaccines should cost between 141 and 147 USD (Unite States Dollars) per vaccinated girl at the most. But at lower prices such as those recommended by WHO or the price of other vaccines in Colombia, HPV vaccination could be considered very cost-effective.

Conclusions

HPV vaccination could be a convenient alternative for the prevention of CC in Colombia. However, the price of the vaccine should be lower for this vaccination strategy to be cost-effective. It is also important to take into consideration the willingness to pay, budgetary impact, and program implications, in order to determine the relevance of a vaccination program in this country, as well as which vaccine should be selected for use in the program.     

Societal problems in human and medical genetics

The applications of human and medical genetics raise many societal and ethical problems. This paper deals with a variety of such issues posed by current and future developments in genetic counseling, genetic screening, prenatal and predictive diagnosis, and gene therapy. The promise and problems of behavioral genetics are discussed. Problems of privacy, decision making, societal pressures, stigmatization, and informed consent to genetic study are raised. Use of genetic data by insurance companies or other public groups is discussed. The rapid unfolding of genetic information affecting human health and disease is producing difficult dilemmas. New problems are likely to surface, but human ingenuity and rationality is likely to find just and compassionate solutions in most settings.     

Societal Risk Perception in Present Day Russia

The study analyzed new information regarding the way in which present day Russians (living in Moscow or Tula) perceive societal risks. The main concerns of Russians in year 2003 were essentially the same ones that were identified in previous studies conducted on Western samples: violence, sex, and addiction-type hazards received the highest risk ratings. Women's mean risk judgments were systematically higher than men's mean judgments, and older participants' mean judgments were higher than younger participants' mean judgments regarding domestic hazards. Technically trained people perceived higher societal risk than people with training in the humanities, but the difference between people with technical training and people trained in the humanities was more accentuated among younger people than among the elderly. Also, men living in Tula perceived themselves as less exposed to risks of violence than women living in Tula and both men and women living in Moscow.     

Abnormal Behavior in Cascading Dynamics with Node Weight

Considering a preferential selection mechanism of load destination, we introduce a new method to quantify initial load distribution and subsequently construct a simple cascading model. By attacking the node with the highest load, we investigate the cascading dynamics in some synthetic networks. Surprisingly, we observe that for several networks of different structural patterns, a counterintuitive phenomenon emerges if the highest load attack is applied to the system, i.e., investing more resources to protect every node in a network inversely makes the whole network more vulnerable. We explain this ability paradox by analyzing the micro-structural components of the underlying network and therefore reveals how specific structural patterns may influence the cascading dynamics. We discover that the robustness of the network oscillates as the capacity of each node increases. The conclusion of the paper may shed lights on future investigations to avoid the demonstrated ability paradox and subsequent cascading failures in real-world networks.     

Environmental Risk Management Decision-Making in a Societal Context

Recent studies point to the need for improved understanding of environmental management frameworks designed to combine qualitative public and quantitative technical inputs in decision-making processes. Flux in public perception and concern about risks imply frameworks must be iterative in nature and incorporate a variety of assessment triggers in the form of decision points. A conceptual model is proposed here to explain the de facto operation of standard risk analytic frameworks within the broader sociopolitical milieu of public policy. The model is presented as a decision flow diagram that emphasizes setting environmental management goals based on societal input and the formulation of decision criteria for selecting management actions to achieve those goals. Prospective and retrospective decision control points operate to select management options that, respectively, avoid or reduce actual or predicted effects. Feedback loops that modify risk management outcomes are identified. Technical and scientific inputs (i.e., risk analysis) are assigned an essential information role within the framework and are responsible for informing the management process with the results of appropriately conducted and reviewed investigations. The proposed model is intended primarily to indicate how environmental risk management decision-making and associated technical assessments may be influenced by social pressures. It is hoped this understanding will lead to analytical transparency and better public communication of the environmental implications of policy options.     

Cascading effects of cannibalism in a top predator

1. Predator interactions are often driven by size differences, with larger predators consuming smaller ones. Cannibalism is widespread among predators, and can be more intense than antagonistic interactions between different predator species. 2. In a series of greenhouse experiments and a field experiment, we investigated the role of size structure in shaping the impacts of a top predator (the wandering spider Cheiracanthium mildei L. Koch) on an insect herbivore in vineyards of Napa County, California. 3. In greenhouse cages, survival of small C. mildei was lower when large C. mildei were present, and the combined effects of small and large C. mildei on leafhopper numbers and grape leaf damage were non‐additive. The frequency of cannibalism in C. mildei did not change when the abundance of leafhoppers was manipulated. However, in the field experiment small and large C. mildei combined additively to reduce leafhopper numbers. 4. Results show that cannibalism has the potential to dampen the cascading effects of C. mildei in a vineyard food web, but that it may be less important than other mortality factors in the field. Nonetheless, C. mildei substantially impacted leafhoppers in both the greenhouse and the field, suggesting that mortality caused by cannibalism or other factors may not compromise its overall predatory impacts.     

Cascading regulation of histidase activity in Streptomyces griseus.

Mutants of Streptomyces griseus unable to utilize histidine as the sole nitrogen source have been isolated and characterized. Using a mutant defective in the production of histidase, we have demonstrated that urocanate functions as the inducer of the histidine utilization system. Another mutant produced histidase that was locked in an inactive form but could be activated by treatment with an extract from the wild-type strain or the histidase-negative strain. This mutant was deficient in the activity of a protein of Mr ca. 90,000 to 100,000 that is required for the activation of histidase. Histidase was synthesized constitutively but was maintained in an inactive form until after histidine or urocanate was added to the medium. At least four components were implicated in the activation of histidase: histidase, the activation protein, urocanate, and a phosphatase that is apparently inactive in cells grown without inducer. The functions of the last three factors could be supplanted in vitro by incubation of histidase with snake venom phosphodiesterase or 5' nucleotidase. The results suggest that histidine utilization by S. griseus is controlled posttranslationally by an activation cascade that involves at least two regulatory proteins.     

Cascading Trophic Interactions in an Oligotrophic Species-poor Alpine Lake

Non-native brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) were eradicated from alpine Bighorn Lake, Alberta, Canada, to test whether strong cascading trophic interactions (CTI) can occur in oligotrophic, high seston C:P, species-poor lakes. Fishless alpine Pipit Lake was used as a reference ecosystem. Bighorn Lake zooplankton biomass increased from 0.14:1 relative to Pipit Lake before fish removal began in 1997 to 0.6:1 afterwards due to an increase in the abundance of adult cyclopoid copepods beginning in 1997 and the reappearance of Daphnia middendorffiana in 1998. Following the reappearance of Daphnia, Bighorn Lake total phytoplankton biomass fell from 64:1 relative to Pipit Lake to 0.9:1. Over the same periods Bighorn Lake:Pipit Lake chlorophyll-a ratios declined from 2.4:1 to 1.6:1, although the decrease was not statistically significant. Mid-summer Secchi disc depth in Bighorn Lake increased from 3.1 m before manipulation to 9.2 m, the maximum depth of the lake, in 2001 and 2002. Increased transparency was most likely due to increased filtration of suspended inorganic particles from the water column by higher abundances of large zooplankton. Post-manipulation increases in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), DIN:total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) ratio and declines in TDP in Bighorn Lake were not attributable to ecosystem manipulation, similar changes were observed in reference Pipit Lake. We conclude that strong pelagic CTI, expressed as change in total phytoplankton biomass and largely mediated by Daphnia, can occur in oligotrophic, high seston C:P, species-poor ecosystems. However, strong CTI responses in phytoplankton biomass may lag trophic manipulation by several years.     

Cascading effects of generalist fish introduction in oligotrophic lakes

Introduction of strictly planktivorous fish to lakes can alter plankton communities via cascading interactions in food webs. Less is known about the large-scale and long-term effects resulting from the introduction of fish with more generalist feeding habits, and the extent to which these effects depend on lake trophic status. Paleolimnological records of three oligotrophic lakes in Maine, USA were used to analyze the response of plankton communities to the introduction of white perch (Morone americana), a fish that often numerically dominates fish assemblages and switches from strict planktivory to a more generalist diet during ontogeny. After white perch introduction, cladoceran ephippia size increased up to 50 %, suggesting that the most important role of this generalist fish, with respect to water quality, is as a piscivorous trophic link. Algal standing crop declined by a quarter to over a half of pre-introduction levels, suggesting that top-down effects of white perch reduced phytoplankton biomass. In comparing these oligotrophic lakes to prior work in a eutrophic system, white perch introduction had similar effects on zooplankton body size; however, cascading effects to phytoplankton were only observed in low productivity lakes.