Diseases with chronic stage in a population with varying size

An epidemiological model of hepatitis C with a chronic infectious stage and variable population size is introduced. A non-structured baseline ODE model which supports exponential solutions is discussed. The normalized version where the unknown functions are the proportions of the susceptible, infected, and chronic individuals in the total population is analyzed. It is shown that sustained oscillations are not possible and the endemic proportions either approach the disease-free or an endemic equilibrium. The expanded model incorporates the chronic age of the individuals. Partial analysis of this age-structured model is carried out. The global asymptotic stability of the infection-free state is established as well as local asymptotic stability of the endemic non-uniform steady state distribution under some additional conditions. A numerical method for the chronic-age-structured model is introduced. It is shown that this numerical scheme is consistent and convergent of first order. Simulations based on the numerical method suggest that in the structured case the endemic equilibrium may be unstable and sustained oscillations are possible. Closer look at the reproduction number reveals that treatment strategies directed towards speeding up the transition from acute to chronic stage in effect contribute to the eradication of the disease.     

一个具暂时免疫且总人数可变的传染病动力学模型

建立了一个具常恢复率和接触率依赖于总人数的SIRS传染病动力学模型，讨论了系统平衡点的存在性和稳定性，对双线性传染率的特殊情形，给出了传染病平衡点的全局稳定性结论，推广和改进了已有的相应结果。     

A model for dengue disease with variable human population

 A model for the transmission of dengue fever with variable human population size is analyzed. We find three threshold parameters which govern the existence of the endemic proportion equilibrium, the increase of the human population size, and the behaviour of the total number of human infectives. We prove the global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points using the theory of competitive systems, compound matrices, and the center manifold theorem. Received: 3 November 1997 / Revised version: 3 July 1998     

Rational behavioral response and the transmission of STDs

The susceptible-infected (SI) model is extended by allowing for individual optimal choices of self-protective actions against infection, where agents differ with respect to preferences and costs of self-protection. It is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium prevalence exists when the basic reproductive number of a STD is strictly greater than unity, and that the disease-free equilibrium is the unique steady state equilibrium when the basic reproductive number is less than or equal to one. Unlike in models that take individual behavior as given and fixed, the endemic equilibrium prevalence need not vary monotonically with respect to the basic reproductive number. Specifically, with endogenously determined self-protective behavior, a reduction in the basic reproductive number may in fact increase the endemic equilibrium prevalence. The global stability of the endemic steady state is established for the case of a homogeneous population by showing that, for any non-zero initial disease prevalence, there exists an equilibrium path which converges to the endemic steady state.     

Global Stability for Delay SIR and SEIR Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence Rate

In this paper, based on SIR and SEIR epidemic models with a general nonlinear incidence rate, we incorporate time delays into the ordinary differential equation models. In particular, we consider two delay differential equation models in which delays are caused (i) by the latency of the infection in a vector, and (ii) by the latent period in an infected host. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and using the Lyapunov–LaSalle invariance principle, we prove the global stability of the endemic equilibrium and the disease-free equilibrium for time delays of any length in each model. Our results show that the global properties of equilibria also only depend on the basic reproductive number and that the latent period in a vector does not affect the stability, but the latent period in an infected host plays a positive role to control disease development.     

一类具有标准发生率的SIS型传染病模型的全局稳定性

研究一类具有标准发生率的SIS传染病模型,讨论了各类平衡点存在的条件;运用微分方程的定性理论,得到了无病平衡点E_1和地方病平衡点E_2的全局渐近稳定的充分条件.     

变时滞SIS流行病模型的稳定性分析

研究了一类时滞SIS流行病模型,分析了该模型无病平衡点和地方平衡点的存在性,得到了无病平衡点全局指数渐近稳定和地方病平衡点局部指数渐近稳定的充分条件,同时给出了地方病平衡点吸引区域的估计。     

Existence, multiplicity and stability of endemic states for an age-structured S-I epidemic model

We study an S-I type epidemic model in an age-structured population, with mortality due to the disease. A threshold quantity is found that controls the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and guarantees the existence of an endemic equilibrium. We obtain conditions on the age-dependence of the susceptibility to infection that imply the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium. An example with two endemic equilibria is shown. Finally, we analyse numerically how the stability of the endemic equilibrium is affected by the extra-mortality and by the possible periodicities induced by the demographic age-structure.     

Stability in a class of cyclic epidemic models with delay

A detailed analysis of a general class of SIRS epidemic models is given. Sufficient conditions are derived which guarantee the global stability of the endemic equilibrium solution. Further conditions are found which ensure instability for the equilibrium. Finally, the dependence of the stability on the contact number and the ratio of the mean length of infection to the mean removed time is considered.     

一类具有时滞和阶段结构的SIS传染病模型的稳定性与持久性

研究一类具有时滞和阶段结构的SIS传染病模型.通过分析特征方程,讨论了系统平衡点的局部稳定性,根据比较定理讨论了无病平衡点的全局稳定性,并证明了当地方病平衡点存在时系统是一致持续生存的.     

Qualitative analysis of an HIV transmission model.

In 1988, a multiple-group model for HIV transmission with preferred mixing was proposed by Jacquez and coworkers. In the present paper, the work done by Jacquez et al. is extended. It is shown that the stability modulus of the Jacobian matrix at the no-disease equilibrium is a threshold for this model. Furthermore, if the no-disease equilibrium is unstable, the number of infected individuals will remain above a certain positive level regardless of initial levels; that is, the disease will persist uniformly. The stability of the endemic equilibrium in the case of restricted mixing is also studied. A series of sufficient conditions for local and global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium are stated.     

具有年龄结构的接种流行病模型正平衡解的全局稳定性

研究一个具有年龄结构的接种SIS流行病模型正平衡解的稳定性,先利用等价积分方程给出了正平衡解存在的充分条件,再利用迭代方法及函数的单调性,得到了零平衡解与正平衡解全局稳定的充分条件。     

Fast and Slow dynamics of Malaria model with relapse

Two mathematical models of malaria with relapse are studied. When the vector population size is constant, complete analyses of the dynamics are conducted. The geometric singular perturbation theory is used to analyze the full dynamics. On the critical manifold, from next generation matrix method, we obtain the basic reproduction number. The global stability of disease-free equilibrium and the uniformly persistence of malaria have also been analyzed. While the vector population size is variable, the basic reproduction number and the stability of disease-free as well as the malaria-infected equilibrium have been obtained in a similar way. Some numerical simulations are also given.     

Global analysis on delay epidemiological dynamic models with nonlinear incidence

In this paper, we derive and study the classical SIR, SIS, SEIR and SEI models of epidemiological dynamics with time delays and a general incidence rate. By constructing Lyapunov functionals, the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is shown. This analysis extends and develops further our previous results and can be applied to the other biological dynamics, including such as single species population delay models and chemostat models with delay response.     

Global Hopf bifurcation analysis of an susceptible-infective-removed epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay

An susceptible-infective-removed epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay is proposed. The stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is studied. And then, the conditions which guarantee the existence of local Hopf bifurcation are given. Furthermore, we show that the local Hopf bifurcation implies the global Hopf bifurcation after the second critical value of delay. The obtained results show that the time delay in media coverage can not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. However, the time delay affects the stability of the endemic equilibrium and produces limit cycle oscillations while the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Finally, some examples for numerical simulations are included to support the theoretical prediction.     

A mathematical model for Chagas disease with infection-age-dependent infectivity

In this paper we develop a mathematical model for Chagas disease with infection-age-dependent infectivity. The effects of vector and blood transfusion transmission are considered, and the infected population is structured by the infection age (the time elapsed from infection). The authors identify the basic reproduction ratio R0 and show that the disease can invade into the susceptible population and unique endemic steady state exists if R0 > 1, whereas the disease dies out if R0 is small enough. We show that depending on parameters, backward bifurcation of endemic steady state can occur, so even if R0 < 1, there could exist endemic steady states. We also discuss local and global stability of steady states.     

一类疫苗预防接种具有效期性的SIRS模型稳定性分析

研究了一类预防接种下疫苗具有有效期的SIRS传染病模型,得到了决定疾病绝灭与否的闽值,给出了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性的充分条件,最后借助Matlab软件进行了数值模拟．     

Stability of an age specific population with density dependent fertility

A nonlinear version of the Lotka-Sharpe model of population growth is considered in which the age specific fertility is a function of the population size. The stability of an equilibrium population distribution is investigated with respect to both global and local perturbations. Sufficient conditions for such stability are presented, as are estimates for the rate of return of the population to the equilibrium configuration. Particular attention is paid to those situations in which the age dependent stability criteria coincide with those of age independent models.     

一类具有垂直传染和预防接种的传染病模型的稳定性

考虑了垂直传染和预防接种因素对传染病流行影响的SEIRS模型,主要研究了系统的平衡点及其稳定性,得出当预防接种水平超过某一个阈值时疾病可以根除,若接种水平低于阈值时疾病将流行.     

Analysis of a disease transmission model in a population with varying size

An S I R S epidemiological model with vital dynamics in a population of varying size is discussed. A complete global analysis is given which uses a new result to establish the nonexistence of periodic solutions. Results are discussed in terms of three explicit threshold parameters which respectively govern the increase of the total population, the existence and stability of an endemic proportion equilibrium and the growth of the infective population. These lead to two distinct concepts of disease eradication which involve the total number of infectives and their proportion in the population.Partially supported by NSF Grant No. DMS-8703631. This work was done while this author was visiting the University of VictoriaResearch supported in part by NSERC A-8965