A comparison of the 1998 and 2002 coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef: spatial correlation,patterns, and predictions

Detailed mapping of coral bleaching events provides an opportunity to examine spatial patterns in bleaching over scales of 10 s to 1,000 s of km and the spatial correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and bleaching. We present data for two large-scale (2,000 km) bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): one from 1998 and another from 2002, both mapped by aerial survey methods. We examined a wide range of satellite-derived SST variables to determine which one best correlated with the observed bleaching patterns. We found that the maximum SST occurring over any 3-day period (max3d) during the bleaching season predicted bleaching better than anomaly-based SST variables and that short averaging periods (3–6 days) predicted bleaching better than longer averaging periods. Short periods of high temperature are therefore highly stressful to corals and result in highly predictable bleaching patterns. Max3d SST predicted the presence/absence of bleaching with an accuracy of 73.2%. Large-scale (GBR-wide) spatial patterns of bleaching were similar between 1998 and 2002 with more inshore reefs bleached compared to offshore reefs. Spatial change in patterns of bleaching occurred at scales of ~10 s km, indicating that reefs bleach (or not) in spatial clusters, possibly due to local weather patterns, oceanographic conditions, or both. Approximately 42% of reefs bleached to some extent in 1998 with ~18% strongly bleached, while in 2002, ~54% of reefs bleached to some extent with ~18% strongly bleached. These statistics and the fact that nearly twice as many offshore reefs bleached in 2002 compared to 1998 (41 vs. 21%, respectively) makes the 2002 event the worst bleaching event on record for the GBR. Modeling of the relationship between bleaching and max3d SST indicates that a 1 °C increase would increase the bleaching occurrence of reefs from 50% (approximate occurrence in 1998 and 2002) to 82%, while a 2 °C increase would increase the occurrence to 97% and a 3 °C increase to 100%. These results suggest that coral reefs are profoundly sensitive to even modest increases in temperature and, in the absence of acclimatization/adaptation, are likely to suffer large declines under mid-range International Panel for Climate Change predictions by 2050.

Learning to predict large-scale coral bleaching from past events: A Bayesian approach using remotely sensed data,in-situ data,and environmental proxies

Ocean warming and coral bleaching are patchy phenomena over a wide range of scales. This paper is part of a larger study that aims to understand the relationship between heat stress and ecological impact caused by the 2002-bleaching event in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We used a Bayesian belief network (BBN) as a framework to refine our prior beliefs and investigate dependencies among a series of proxies that attempt to characterize potential drivers and responses: the remotely sensed environmental stress (sea surface temperature — SST); the geographic setting; and topographic and ecological attributes of reef sites for which we had field data on bleaching impact. Sensitivity analyses helped us to refine and update our beliefs in a manner that improved our capacity to hindcast areas of high and low bleaching impact. Our best predictive capacity came by combining proxies for a sites heat stress in 2002 (remotely sensed), acclimatization temperatures (remote sensed), the ease with which it could be cooled by tidal mixing (modeled), and type of coral community present at a sample of survey sites (field data). The potential for the outlined methodology to deliver a transparent decision support tool to aid in the process of identifying a series of locations whose inclusion in a network of protected areas would help to spread the risk of bleaching is discussed.     

Satellite observation of Keppel Islands (Great Barrier Reef) 2002 coral bleaching using IKONOS data

An examination of IKONOS satellite imagery of the Keppel Islands (Great Barrier Reef) acquired before and during a coral bleaching event indicates that severe bleaching of reefs can be detected as an increase in brightness in the band 1 (blue) and band 2 (green) IKONOS spectral bands (4-m resolution). The bleaching was not detected in band 3 (red), band 4 (near-infrared), or in the 1-m panchromatic band data. A total of 0.74 km² of bleached coral was identified, with detection occurring in waters as deep as 15 m. The procedure requires that one of the scenes be radiometrically normalized to match the reference scene prior to image differencing. A relative radiometric normalization was used in this case because variable cloud cover present in the image acquired during the bleaching event prevented reliable modeling of atmospheric effects. The success at coral bleaching detection at Keppel Islands represents both a best-case and a cloud-challenged scenario. It was a best-case scenario in that coral cover was extensive (70–90% live coral cover, mostly acroporids) and the bleaching level was extreme (92–95% of coral cover white bleached). It was a cloud-challenged scenario in terms of having extensive and highly variable cloud cover present in the image acquired during the bleaching event. Color difference images reveal extensive areas of bleached coral at sites away from our study area, indicating that this platform and methodology may be a valuable tool for mapping high coral cover areas during bleaching events. Additional studies and technique refinements would be required to test the detection limits of bleaching with IKONOS imagery or to develop a spectrally based bleaching detection index.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Experimental biology of coral reef ecosystems

Coral reef ecosystems are at the crossroads. While significant gaps still exist in our understanding of how “normal” reefs work, unprecedented changes in coral reef systems have forced the research community to change its focus from basic research to understand how one of the most diverse ecosystems in the world works to basic research with strong applied implications to alleviate damage, save, or restore coral reef ecosystems. A wide range of stressors on local, regional, and global spatial scales including over fishing, diseases, large-scale disturbance events, global climate change (e.g., ozone depletion, global warming), and over population have all contributed to declines in coral cover or phase shifts in community structure on time scales never observed before. Many of these changes are directly or indirectly related to anthropogenically induced changes in the global support network that affects all ecosystems. This review focuses on some recent advances in the experimental biology of coral reef ecosystems, and in particular scleractinian corals, at all levels of biological organization. Many of the areas of interest and techniques discussed reflect a progression of technological advances in biology and ecology but have found unique and timely application in the field of experimental coral reef biology. The review, by nature, will not be exhaustive and reflects the author's interests to a large degree. Because of the voluminous literature available, an attempt has been made to capture the essential elements and references for each topic discussed.     

Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching

Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming‐induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias‐corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present‐day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2–10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20–80% compared with the ‘no adaptive response’ prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high‐frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high‐frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress.     

Climatological context for large-scale coral bleaching

Large-scale coral bleaching was first observed in 1979 and has occurred throughout virtually all of the tropics since that time. Severe bleaching may result in the loss of live coral and in a decline of the integrity of the impacted coral reef ecosystem. Despite the extensive scientific research and increased public awareness of coral bleaching, uncertainties remain about the past and future of large-scale coral bleaching. In order to reduce these uncertainties and place large-scale coral bleaching in the longer-term climatological context, specific criteria and methods for using historical sea surface temperature (SST) data to examine coral bleaching-related thermal conditions are proposed by analyzing three, 132 year SST reconstructions: ERSST, HadISST1, and GISST2.3b. These methodologies are applied to case studies at Discovery Bay, Jamaica (77.27°W, 18.45°N), Sombrero Reef, Florida, USA (81.11°W, 24.63°N), Academy Bay, Galápagos, Ecuador (90.31°W, 0.74°S), Pearl and Hermes Reef, Northwest Hawaiian Islands, USA (175.83°W, 27.83°N), Midway Island, Northwest Hawaiian Islands, USA (177.37°W, 28.25°N), Davies Reef, Australia (147.68°E, 18.83°S), and North Male Atoll, Maldives (73.35°E, 4.70°N). The results of this study show that (1) The historical SST data provide a useful long-term record of thermal conditions in reef ecosystems, giving important insight into the thermal history of coral reefs and (2) While coral bleaching and anomalously warm SSTs have occurred over much of the world in recent decades, case studies in the Caribbean, Northwest Hawaiian Islands, and parts of other regions such as the Great Barrier Reef exhibited SST conditions and cumulative thermal stress prior to 1979 that were comparable to those conditions observed during the strong, frequent coral bleaching events since 1979. This climatological context and knowledge of past environmental conditions in reef ecosystems may foster a better understanding of how coral reefs will respond in future, ocean warming scenarios.     

Assessing coral bleaching and recovery with a colour reference card in Watamu Marine Park,Kenya

With this study we estimated the changes in colour, bleaching and mortality of coral colonies from February to December 2007, using the colour reference card method. The study was developed in the Watamu Marine Park lagoon (Kenya), bridging the local summer when seawater temperatures were highest and coral bleaching risk was at its maximum. Seven coral genera were selected, and their colour recorded using a colour reference card (Coral Watch card). Seven different scenarios of bleaching and mortality were observed, varying among the coral genera and between two species in the genus Pocillopora. Twenty percent of the colonies bleached, of which 50% died. Only 15% of the coral that did not bleach died. Branching genera had a higher bleaching incidence than massive and sub-massive genera. Pocillopora showed the highest bleaching susceptibility, followed by Acropora, and the highest level of mortality. Of the two species of Pocillopora considered in this study, P. eydouxi showed higher bleaching and mortality levels, while P. verrucosa bleached less and experienced only partial mortality. Our results evidenced different patterns of coral bleaching and mortality which were easily and clearly detected with the colour card method during both bleaching and a post-bleaching events.     

Cellular processes of bleaching in the Mediterranean coral Oculina patagonica

Annual bleaching of Oculina patagonica on the Israeli Mediterranean coastline has been reported since 1993, although the cellular mechanisms underlying the bleaching have not yet been investigated. This survey examined 48 coral colonies of O. patagonica (bleached and unbleached) from various sites along the Israeli coast. Histopathological investigations of bleached lesions revealed a loss of endosymbionts, and an apparent in situ degradation of the endosymbionts. In situ end labelling of bleaching lesions did not provide evidence of apoptotic cell death. Electron microscopy of bleaching lesions also demonstrated an apparent in situ degradation and no evidence of apoptotic cell death of the host.     

Genetic structure of a reef-building coral from thermally distinct environments on the Great Barrier Reef

Adaptation to localised thermal regimes is facilitated by restricted gene flow, ultimately leading to genetic divergence among populations and differences in their physiological tolerances. Allozyme analysis of six polymorphic loci was used to assess genetic differentiation between nine populations of the reef-building coral Acropora millepora over a latitudinal temperature gradient on the inshore regions of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Small but significant genetic differentiation indicative of moderate levels of gene flow (pairwise F _ST 0.023 to 0.077) was found between southern populations of A. millepora in cooler regions of the GBR and the warmer, central or northern GBR populations. Patterns of genetic differentiation at these putatively neutral allozyme loci broadly matched experimental variation in thermal tolerance and were consistent with local thermal regimes (warmest monthly-averages) for the A. millepora populations examined. It is therefore hypothesized that natural selection has influenced the thermal tolerance of the A. millepora populations examined and greater genetic divergence is likely to be revealed by examination of genetic markers under the direct effects of natural selection.     

Disentangling the complex microbial community of coral reefs using standardized Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS)

Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS) have been applied worldwide to describe eukaryotic cryptic reef fauna. Conversely, bacterial communities, which are critical components of coral reef ecosystem functioning, remain largely overlooked. Here we deployed 56 ARMS across the 2,000‐km spread of the Red Sea to assay biodiversity, composition and inferred underlying functions of coral reef‐associated bacterial communities via 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We found that bacterial community structure and diversity aligned with environmental differences. Indeed, sea surface temperature and macroalgae cover were key in explaining bacterial relative abundance. Importantly, taxonomic and functional alpha diversity decreased under more extreme environmental conditions (e.g., higher temperatures) in the southern Red Sea. This may imply a link between bacterial community diversity and functional capabilities, with implications for conservation management. Our study demonstrates the utility of ARMS to investigate the response of coral reef‐associated bacterial communities to environmental change.     

Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs

Coral reefs and the services they provide are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Here, we present updated global projections for these key threats to coral reefs based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 climate models using the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments. For all tropical reef locations, we project absolute and percentage changes in aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) for the period between 2006 and the onset of annual severe bleaching (thermal stress >8 degree heating weeks); a point at which it is difficult to believe reefs can persist as we know them. Severe annual bleaching is projected to start 10–15 years later at high‐latitude reefs than for reefs in low latitudes under RCP8.5. In these 10–15 years, Ωarag keeps declining and thus any benefits for high‐latitude reefs of later onset of annual bleaching may be negated by the effects of acidification. There are no long‐term refugia from the effects of both acidification and bleaching. Of all reef locations, 90% are projected to experience severe bleaching annually by 2055. Furthermore, 5% declines in calcification are projected for all reef locations by 2034 under RCP8.5, assuming a 15% decline in calcification per unit of Ωarag. Drastic emissions cuts, such as those represented by RCP6.0, result in an average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching that is ~20 years later (2062 vs. 2044). However, global emissions are tracking above the current worst‐case scenario devised by the scientific community, as has happened in previous generations of emission scenarios. The projections here for conditions on coral reefs are dire, but provide the most up‐to‐date assessment of what the changing climate and ocean acidification mean for the persistence of coral reefs.     

Turbid reefs moderate coral bleaching under climate‐related temperature stress

Thermal‐stress events that cause coral bleaching and mortality have recently increased in frequency and severity. Yet few studies have explored conditions that moderate coral bleaching. Given that high light and high ocean temperature together cause coral bleaching, we explore whether corals at turbid localities, with reduced light, are less likely to bleach during thermal‐stress events than corals at other localities. We analyzed coral bleaching, temperature, and turbidity data from 3,694 sites worldwide with a Bayesian model and found that K_d490, a measurement positively related to turbidity, between 0.080 and 0.127 reduced coral bleaching during thermal‐stress events. Approximately 12% of the world's reefs exist within this “moderating turbidity” range, and 30% of reefs that have moderating turbidity are in the Coral Triangle. We suggest that these turbid nearshore environments may provide some refuge through climate change, but these reefs will need high conservation status to sustain them close to dense human populations.     

Refugia under threat: Mass bleaching of coral assemblages in high‐latitude eastern Australia

Environmental anomalies that trigger adverse physiological responses and mortality are occurring with increasing frequency due to climate change. At species' range peripheries, environmental anomalies are particularly concerning because species often exist at their environmental tolerance limits and may not be able to migrate to escape unfavourable conditions. Here, we investigated the bleaching response and mortality of 14 coral genera across high‐latitude eastern Australia during a global heat stress event in 2016. We evaluated whether the severity of assemblage‐scale and genus‐level bleaching responses was associated with cumulative heat stress and/or local environmental history, including long‐term mean temperatures during the hottest month of each year (SST_LTMAX), and annual fluctuations in water temperature (SST_VAR) and solar irradiance (PARZ_VAR). The most severely‐bleached genera included species that were either endemic to the region (Pocillopora aliciae) or rare in the tropics (e.g. Porites heronensis). Pocillopora spp., in particular, showed high rates of immediate mortality. Bleaching severity of Pocillopora was high where SST_LTMAX was low or PARZ_VAR was high, whereas bleaching severity of Porites was directly associated with cumulative heat stress. While many tropical Acropora species are extremely vulnerable to bleaching, the Acropora species common at high latitudes, such as A. glauca and A. solitaryensis, showed little incidence of bleaching and immediate mortality. Two other regionally‐abundant genera, Goniastrea and Turbinaria, were also largely unaffected by the thermal anomaly. The severity of assemblage‐scale bleaching responses was poorly explained by the environmental parameters we examined. Instead, the severity of assemblage‐scale bleaching was associated with local differences in species abundance and taxon‐specific bleaching responses. The marked taxonomic disparity in bleaching severity, coupled with high mortality of high‐latitude endemics, point to climate‐driven simplification of assemblage structures and progressive homogenisation of reef functions at these high‐latitude locations.     

Chronic parrotfish grazing impedes coral recovery after bleaching

Coral bleaching, in which corals become visibly pale and typically lose their endosymbiotic zooxanthellae (Symbiodinium spp.), increasingly threatens coral reefs worldwide. While the proximal environmental triggers of bleaching are reasonably well understood, considerably less is known concerning physiological and ecological factors that might exacerbate coral bleaching or delay recovery. We report a bleaching event in Belize during September 2004 in which Montastraea spp. corals that had been previously grazed by corallivorous parrotfishes showed a persistent reduction in symbiont density compared to intact colonies. Additionally, grazed corals exhibited greater diversity in the genetic composition of their symbiont communities, changing from uniform ITS2 type C7 Symbiodinium prior to bleaching to mixed assemblages of Symbiodinium types post-bleaching. These results suggest that chronic predation may exacerbate the influence of environmental stressors and, by altering the coral-zooxanthellae symbiosis, such abiotic-biotic interactions may contribute to spatial variation in bleaching processes.     

Boring sponges,an increasing threat for coral reefs affected by bleaching events

Coral bleaching is a stress response of corals induced by a variety of factors, but these events have become more frequent and intense in response to recent climate‐change‐related temperature anomalies. We tested the hypothesis that coral reefs affected by bleaching events are currently heavily infested by boring sponges, which are playing a significant role in the destruction of their physical structure. Seventeen reefs that cover the entire distributional range of corals along the Mexican Pacific coast were studied between 2005/2006, and later between 2009/2010. Most of these coral reefs were previously impacted by bleaching events, which resulted in coral mortalities. Sponge abundance and species richness was used as an indicator of bioerosion, and coral cover was used to describe the present condition of coral reefs. Coral reefs are currently highly invaded (46% of the samples examined) by a very high diversity of boring sponges (20 species); being the coral reef framework the substrate most invaded (56%) followed by the rubbles (45%), and the living colonies (36%). The results also indicated that boring sponges are promoting the dislodgment of live colonies and large fragments from the framework. In summary, the eastern coral reefs affected by bleaching phenomena, mainly provoked by El Niño, present a high diversity and abundance of boring sponges, which are weakening the union of the colony with the reef framework and promoting their dislodgment. These phenomena will probably become even more intense and severe, as temperatures are projected to continue to rise under the scenarios for future climate change, which could place many eastern coral reefs beyond their survival threshold.     

Effects of coral bleaching on the feeding response of two species of coral-feeding fish

Coral bleaching is an increasingly prominent threat to coral reef ecosystems, not only to corals, but also to the many organisms that rely on coral for food and shelter. Coral-feeding fishes are negatively affected by coral loss caused by extensive bleaching, but it is unknown how feeding behaviour of most corallivorous fishes changes in response to coral bleaching. In this study, coral bleaching was experimentally induced in situ to examine the feeding response of two obligate corallivorous fish, Labrichthys unilineatus (Labridae) and Chaetodon baronessa (Chaetodontidae). Feeding rates were monitored before, during, and immediately after experimental bleaching of prey corals. L. unilineatus significantly increased its feeding on impacted corals during bleaching, but showed a steady decline in feeding once corals were fully bleached. Feeding response of L. unilineatus appears to parallel the expected stress-induced mucous production by bleaching colonies. In contrast, C. baronessa preferentially fed from healthy colonies over bleached colonies, although bleached colonies were consumed for five days following manipulation. Feeding by corallivorous fishes can play an important role in determining coral condition and mortality of corals following stress induced bleaching.     

Resolving spatial and temporal patterns of coral bleaching risk using image analysis: an active learning experience to improve climate change literacy in college students

Recent studies indicate poor understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change among college students. In an effort to improve climate change literacy, we have developed an authentic research experience for upper level undergraduate students focused on resolving spatial and temporal patterns of coral reef bleaching, an ecologically and economically important consequence of climate warming. In the research, students use a public archive of maps generated by the United States National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) that use coloration to depict ocean areas experiencing above-average surface temperatures and where corals are at an increased risk of bleaching. Students are required to quantify the total area of coloration on individual maps using open-source image analysis software called Image J. By quantifying coloration (ie bleaching risk) over a large number of maps in a chronological sequence, students can test hypotheses regarding the relationship between ongoing climate warming and coral bleaching risk. Students are required to summarise their findings in a scientific journal-style report that incorporates graphical representations and statistical tests of their coral bleaching risk data. The research activity is cost-effective, repeatable, requires little specialised knowledge and addresses common programmatic learning outcomes that target scientific communication, quantitative reasoning and sustainability.     

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef‐building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long‐term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low‐ and high‐climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM‐resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985–2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30–50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2–1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.     

Interpreting coral reef monitoring data: A guide for improved management decisions

Coral reef monitoring programmes exist in all regions of the world, recording reef attributes such as coral cover, fish biomass and macroalgal cover. Given the cost of such monitoring programs, and the degraded state of many of the world’s reefs, understanding how reef monitoring data can be used to shape management decisions for coral reefs is a high priority. However, there is no general guide to understanding the ecological implications of the data in a format that can trigger a management response. We attempt to provide such a guide for interpreting the temporal trends in 41 coral reef monitoring attributes, recorded by seven of the largest reef monitoring programmes. We show that only a small subset of these attributes is required to identify the stressors that have impacted a reef (i.e. provide a diagnosis), as well as to estimate the likely recovery potential (prognosis). Two of the most useful indicators, turf algal canopy height and coral colony growth rate are not commonly measured, and we strongly recommend their inclusion in reef monitoring. The diagnosis and prognosis system that we have developed may help guide management actions and provides a foundation for further development as biological and ecological insights continue to grow.     

Tropical cyclone cooling combats region‐wide coral bleaching

Coral bleaching has become more frequent and widespread as a result of rising sea surface temperature (SST). During a regional scale SST anomaly, reef exposure to thermal stress is patchy in part due to physical factors that reduce SST to provide thermal refuge. Tropical cyclones (TCs – hurricanes, typhoons) can induce temperature drops at spatial scales comparable to that of the SST anomaly itself. Such cyclone cooling can mitigate bleaching across broad areas when well‐timed and appropriately located, yet the spatial and temporal prevalence of this phenomenon has not been quantified. Here, satellite SST and historical TC data are used to reconstruct cool wakes (n=46) across the Caribbean during two active TC seasons (2005 and 2010) where high thermal stress was widespread. Upon comparison of these datasets with thermal stress data from Coral Reef Watch and published accounts of bleaching, it is evident that TC cooling reduced thermal stress at a region‐wide scale. The results show that during a mass bleaching event, TC cooling reduced thermal stress below critical levels to potentially mitigate bleaching at some reefs, and interrupted natural warming cycles to slow the build‐up of thermal stress at others. Furthermore, reconstructed TC wave damage zones suggest that it was rare for more reef area to be damaged by waves than was cooled (only 12% of TCs). Extending the time series back to 1985 (n = 314), we estimate that for the recent period of enhanced TC activity (1995–2010), the annual probability that cooling and thermal stress co‐occur is as high as 31% at some reefs. Quantifying such probabilities across the other tropical regions where both coral reefs and TCs exist is vital for improving our understanding of how reef exposure to rising SSTs may vary, and contributes to a basis for targeting reef conservation.