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1.
Rivest LP  Baillargeon S 《Biometrics》2007,63(4):999-1006
This article revisits Chao's (1989, Biometrics45, 427-438) lower bound estimator for the size of a closed population in a mark-recapture experiment where the capture probabilities vary between animals (model M(h)). First, an extension of the lower bound to models featuring a time effect and heterogeneity in capture probabilities (M(th)) is proposed. The biases of these lower bounds are shown to be a function of the heterogeneity parameter for several loglinear models for M(th). Small-sample bias reduction techniques for Chao's lower bound estimator are also derived. The application of the loglinear model underlying Chao's estimator when heterogeneity has been detected in the primary periods of a robust design is then investigated. A test for the null hypothesis that Chao's loglinear model provides unbiased abundance estimators is provided. The strategy of systematically using Chao's loglinear model in the primary periods of a robust design where heterogeneity has been detected is investigated in a Monte Carlo experiment. Its impact on the estimation of the population sizes and of the survival rates is evaluated in a Monte Carlo experiment.  相似文献   

2.
Although mark-recapture methods are among the most powerful tools for monitoring wildlife populations, the secretive nature of some species requires a comprehensive understanding of the factors that affect capture probability to maximize accuracy and precision of population parameter estimates (e.g., population size and survivorship). Here, we used aquatic snakes as a case study in applying rigorous mark-recapture methods to estimate population parameters for secretive species. Specifically, we used intensive field sampling and robust design mark-recapture analyses in Program MARK to test specific hypotheses about ecological and methodological factors influencing detectability of two species of secretive aquatic snakes, the banded watersnake (Nerodia fasciata), and the black swamp snake (Seminatrix pygaea). We constructed a candidate set of a priori mark-recapture models incorporating various combinations of time- and sex-varying capture and recapture probabilities, behavioral responses to traps (i.e., trap-happiness or trap-shyness), and temporary emigration, and we ranked models for each species using Akaike's Information Criterion. For both banded watersnakes and black swamp snakes we found strong support for time-varying capture and recapture probabilities and strong trap-happy responses, factors that can bias population estimation if not accommodated in the models. We also found evidence of sex-dependent temporary emigration in black swamp snakes. Our study is among the first comprehensive assessments of factors affecting detectability in snakes and provides a framework for studies aimed at monitoring populations of other secretive species. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.  相似文献   

3.
Accurate assessments of population parameters, such as survival and abundance, are critical for effective wildlife conservation. In order for wildlife managers to undertake long-term monitoring of populations, the data collection must be as cost-effective as possible. Two demographic modelling techniques commonly used are mark-recapture and mark-resight. Mark-resight can be used in conjunction with biotelemetry methods and offers a more cost effective alternative to the traditional mark-recapture models. However, there has been no empirical comparison of the demographic parameters obtained from the two modelling techniques. This study used photographs of natural markings to individually identify wobbegong sharks (Orectolobus maculatus) sighted during underwater surveys over a 2 year period, during eight distinct sampling periods, and analysed with Pollock’s robust design mark-recapture models. These estimates were then compared, using z tests, with Poisson-lognormal mark-resight models that used resightings of sharks previously tagged with telemetry transmitters, and the telemetry data to calculate the number of marked animals present in each sampling period. Sharks were categorised into four groups according to their sex and age-class (adult/juvenile). The results indicated that there was a high degree of transience in the population, with 62 % of sharks only being sighted in one sampling period. Based on normalized Akaike weights, there was no single ‘best’ model for either type of modelling technique and model averaging was used to determine the demographic estimates. Both models showed higher abundance of wobbegongs in the austral spring and summer seasons, however, the models produced statistically different results for five of the eight sampling periods. The mark-recapture model estimated apparent survival between 78 and 95 %, whereas the mark-resight models estimated it between 48 and 97 %. Crucially, there was no statistical difference between the survival estimates from corresponding sex/age-class. The temporary emigration parameters differed substantially between the model types. The mark-recapture model showed support for Markovian movement, whereas the mark-resight supported random emigration. The timing of the tagging events likely biased the abundance and temporary emigration parameters estimated by mark-resight models and must be taken into consideration when designing a mark-resight study. Despite this, this study shows that robust demographic estimates, that are comparable to labour intensive mark-recapture estimates, can still be obtained using mark-resight methods. Given the substantial increase in biotelemetry studies of medium and large sized vertebrates, mark-resight models may play an important future role in estimating demographic parameters.  相似文献   

4.
Measuring population size is riddled with difficulties for wildlife biologists and managers, and in the case of rare species, it is sometimes practically impossible to estimate abundance, whereas estimation of occupancy is possible. Furthermore, obtaining reliable population size estimates is not straightforward, as different sampling techniques can give misleading results. A mark-recapture study of the endangered saproxylic beetle Osmoderma eremita was performed in central Italy by applying four independent capture methods within a study area where 116 hollow trees were randomly selected to set traps. Detection probability and population size estimates were drawn from each of these four capture methods. There were strong differences in detection probability among methods. Despite using pheromone and beetle manipulation, capture histories were not affected by trap-happiness or trap-shyness. Population size estimates varied considerably in both abundance and precision by capture method. A number of 0.5 and 0.2 adult beetles per tree was estimated using the whole data set by closed and open population models, respectively. Pitfall trap appeared the optimal method to detect the occurrence of this species. Since in the southern part of its distribution range, a single population of O. eremita is widespread in the landscape, and includes beetles from more than one hollow tree, conservation efforts should focus not only on preserving few and isolated monumental hollow trees, but should be extended to large stands.  相似文献   

5.
The use of non-invasive genetic sampling to estimate population size in elusive or rare species is increasing. The data generated from this sampling differ from traditional mark-recapture data in that individuals may be captured multiple times within a session or there may only be a single sampling event. To accommodate this type of data, we develop a method, named capwire, based on a simple urn model containing individuals of two capture probabilities. The method is evaluated using simulations of an urn and of a more biologically realistic system where individuals occupy space, and display heterogeneous movement and DNA deposition patterns. We also analyse a small number of real data sets. The results indicate that when the data contain capture heterogeneity the method provides estimates with small bias and good coverage, along with high accuracy and precision. Performance is not as consistent when capture rates are homogeneous and when dealing with populations substantially larger than 100. For the few real data sets where N is approximately known, capwire's estimates are very good. We compare capwire's performance to commonly used rarefaction methods and to two heterogeneity estimators in program capture: Mh-Chao and Mh-jackknife. No method works best in all situations. While less precise, the Chao estimator is very robust. We also examine how large samples should be to achieve a given level of accuracy using capwire. We conclude that capwire provides an improved way to estimate N for some DNA-based data sets.  相似文献   

6.
Yip PS  Chan KS  Wan EC 《Biometrics》2002,58(4):852-861
We consider the problem of estimating the population size for an open population where the data are collected over secondary periods within primary periods according to a robust design suggested by Pollock (1982, Journal of Wildlife Management 46, 757-760). A conditional likelihood is used to estimate the parameters associated with a generalized linear model in which the capture probability is assumed to have a logistic form depending on individual covariates. A Horvitz-Thompson-type estimator is used to estimate the population size for each primary period and the survival probabilities between primary periods. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated through simulation and are found to perform well. A data set for such a robust design of a small-mammal capture-recapture study conducted at Dummy Bottom within Browns Park National Wildlife Refuge is analyzed.  相似文献   

7.
Negative bias in mark-recapture abundance estimators due to heterogeneity in detection (capture) probability is a well-known problem, but we believe most biologists do not understand why heterogeneity causes bias and how bias can be reduced. We demonstrate how heterogeneity creates dependence and bias in mark-recapture approaches to abundance estimation. In comparison, heterogeneity, and hence estimator bias, is not as problematic for distance sampling and mark-resight methods because both techniques estimate detection probabilities based on a known quantity. We show how the introduction of a known number of individuals planted into a study population prior to a mark-recapture survey can reduce bias from heterogeneity in detection probability. We provide examples with simulation and an analysis of motion-sensitive camera data from a study population of introduced eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) of known size with a subset of telemetered birds. In choosing a method for abundance estimation, careful consideration should be given to assumptions and how heterogeneity in detection probability can be accommodated for each application.  相似文献   

8.
Crayfish are regarded as useful indicators of environmental quality and freshwater biodiversity. However, reliable methods for monitoring their populations are needed so that this potential can be fully utilised. We report and discuss methodological aspects of the white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes complex) survey conducted in Piedmont, Italy, with the use of mark-recapture. The results suggest that the method can serve as a convenient tool for estimating the size of crayfish populations and inferring their temporal trends. The two populations investigated appeared closed except for wintertime and July. Consequently, the Robust Design, which is regarded as the most reliable mark-recapture approach, can be easily applied. The minimum effective sampling plan for monitoring purposes should comprise one primary period per year, conducted in the summer–autumn season, and consisting of three capture sessions. If gaining insight into the ecology of the investigated species is the prime objective and sufficient resources are available, the optimal plan should include two primary periods (in spring and the summer–autumn season) of five capture sessions each. Capture sessions need to be separated by roughly 2-week intervals in order to avoid the strong, but short-term, negative effect of capturing crayfish on their recapture chances. As the model without heterogeneity in capture probabilities ensures better estimate precision we recommend that data collected for both sexes are analysed separately. Taking into consideration higher male catchabilities and sex ratio being invariably 1:1, it also seems beneficial to estimate only male numbers and double them to achieve total population sizes.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract: Estimating population size in a mark-recapture framework using DNA obtained from remotely collected genetic samples (e.g., feces) has become common in recent years but rarely has been used for ungulates. Using DNA extracted from fecal pellets, we estimated the size of an argali (Ovis ammon) population that was believed to be isolated from others within the Big Pamir Mountains, Afghanistan, an area where access was difficult and expensive. We used closed-capture models to estimate abundance, and Pradel models to examine closure assumptions, both as implemented in Program MARK. We also made visual counts of argali in the Big Pamirs, allowing comparison of count indices of abundance with modeled estimates. Our model-averaged estimate for female argali in the Big Pamir was 172 (95% CI = 117–232), which was about 23% higher than our best assessment using uncorrected visual counts. However, mark-recapture models suggested that males were not a closed population; thus, we were unable to provide a meaningful estimate of overall population size. Males either suffered much higher mortality than females during the sampling period, or, more likely, males moved in and out of the Big Pamir area. Although information from DNA did not provide a clear overall population estimate, it suggested that the Big Pamir was not isolated from other argali populations, which could not have been confirmed with visual observations alone. Estimating argali population size using mark-recapture models and fecal DNA is feasible but may be too expensive for frequent monitoring of large and remote populations. Our study demonstrates the importance of sex identification and separate abundance estimation for each sex, especially if movement ecology differs by sex.  相似文献   

10.
Estimates of population size and trappability inform vaccine efficacy modelling and are required for adaptive management during prolonged wildlife vaccination campaigns. We present an analysis of mark-recapture data from a badger vaccine (Bacille Calmette–Guérin) study in Ireland. This study is the largest scale (755 km2) mark-recapture study ever undertaken with this species. The study area was divided into three approximately equal–sized zones, each with similar survey and capture effort. A mean badger population size of 671 (SD: 76) was estimated using a closed-subpopulation model (CSpM) based on data from capturing sessions of the entire area and was consistent with a separate multiplicative model. Minimum number alive estimates calculated from the same data were on average 49–51% smaller than the CSpM estimates, but these are considered severely negatively biased when trappability is low. Population densities derived from the CSpM estimates were 0.82–1.06 badgers km−2, and broadly consistent with previous reports for an adjacent area. Mean trappability was estimated to be 34–35% per session across the population. By the fifth capture session, 79% of the adult badgers caught had been marked previously. Multivariable modelling suggested significant differences in badger trappability depending on zone, season and age-class. There were more putatively trap-wary badgers identified in the population than trap-happy badgers, but wariness was not related to individual’s sex, zone or season of capture. Live-trapping efficacy can vary significantly amongst sites, seasons, age, or personality, hence monitoring of trappability is recommended as part of an adaptive management regime during large–scale wildlife vaccination programs to counter biases and to improve efficiencies.  相似文献   

11.
The abundance of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis) in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, South-eastern Brazil, was investigated during the period 2000–2015 using mark-recapture models applied to photo-identification data. A combination of Pradel’s model and Pollock’s robust design was applied to estimate abundance and other population parameters, such as apparent survival (Φ), capture probability (p) and seniority probability (γ). Total population size was estimated by correcting the estimates derived from the Pradel robust design model for the proportion of marked individuals in the population. The corrected abundance estimates decreased drastically (37%) between 2000 (62, 95% CI 59–65) and 2015 (39, 95% CI 37–40), and can be explained by a combination of low survival and recruitment rates. Determining the ultimate causes for the decline in this Guiana dolphin population is difficult, but the likely reasons are of anthropogenic nature, such as by-catch, habitat degradation, intense traffic of vessels and exposure to immunosuppressive and endocrine-disrupting pollutants. We provide the first quantitative evidence of population decline in a delphinid from Brazilian waters. Conservation and management actions are urged to change this scenario. Other local dolphin populations in Brazil, which are exposed to the same impacts, may also be currently declining or are expected to do so in the near future. For this reason, we emphasize that anthropogenic impacts upon estuarine/coastal species that exhibit site fidelity warrant greater attention, because such impacts may lead to the same negative scenario observed in Guanabara Bay.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract: We explored whether genetic sampling would be feasible to provide a region-wide population estimate for American black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachians, USA. Specifically, we determined whether adequate capture probabilities (p > 0.20) and population estimates with a low coefficient of variation (CV < 20%) could be achieved given typical agency budget and personnel constraints. We extracted DNA from hair collected from baited barbed-wire enclosures sampled over a 10-week period on 2 study areas: a high-density black bear population in a portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park and a lower density population on National Forest lands in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. We identified individual bears by their unique genotypes obtained from 9 microsatellite loci. We sampled 129 and 60 different bears in the National Park and National Forest study areas, respectively, and applied closed mark-recapture models to estimate population abundance. Capture probabilities and precision of the population estimates were acceptable only for sampling scenarios for which we pooled weekly sampling periods. We detected capture heterogeneity biases, probably because of inadequate spatial coverage by the hair-trapping grid. The logistical challenges of establishing and checking a sufficiently high density of hair traps make DNA-based estimates of black bears impractical for the southern Appalachian region. Alternatives are to estimate population size for smaller areas, estimate population growth rates or survival using mark-recapture methods, or use independent marking and recapturing techniques to reduce capture heterogeneity.  相似文献   

13.
Mark-recapture methods are generally considered to more accurately reflect population trends than count data, which is especially important for indicator species. Terrestrial salamanders are often used as indicators of forest ecosystem health and may be monitored through diurnal cover object searches or nocturnal activity searches. Our goal was to determine whether search method affected encounter probabilities, whether these probabilities differed between age classes, and whether the inclusion of search method in mark-recapture models affected abundance estimates. We used program MARK to analyze 3 years of red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) mark-recapture data using Pollock’s robust design taken from a 144 m2 plot. Initial encounter probabilities during night searches were consistently greater than during diurnal cover object searches. As a result, inclusion of search method in models sometimes affected abundance estimates. There was no difference between adult and juvenile encounter probabilities nor were abundance estimates affected by inclusion of age class, but there was yearly variation in the juvenile abundance estimates. For these reasons, we recommend that sampling of terrestrial salamanders include nocturnal activity searches and be conducted over multiple years. Monitoring programs of other species should take into account whether the selected search method(s) may be more likely to sample different subsets of the population of interest and how this may restrict their inferences.  相似文献   

14.
Little is known about vital rates of snakes generally because of the difficulty in collecting data. Here we used a robust design mark-recapture model to estimate survival, behavioral effects on capture probability, temporary emigration, abundance and test the hypothesis of population decline in the golden lancehead pitviper, Bothrops insularis, an endemic and critically endangered species from southeastern Brazil. We collected data at irregular intervals over ten occasions from 2002 to 2010. Survival was slightly higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Temporal emigration was high, indicating the importance of accounting for this parameter both in the sampling design and modeling. No behavioral effects were detected on capture probability. We detected an average annual population decrease ( = 0.93, CI = 0.47–1.38) during the study period, but estimates included high uncertainty, and caution in interpretation is needed. We discuss the potential effects of the illegal removal of individuals and the implications of the vital rates obtained for the future persistence and conservation of this endemic, endangered species.  相似文献   

15.
Removal sampling data are the primary source of monitoring information for many populations (e.g., invasive species, fisheries). Population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection are common sources of variation in monitoring data and are key parameters for informing management. We developed two open robust‐design removal models for simultaneously modeling population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection: a random walk linear trend model (estimable without ancillary information), and a 2‐age class informed population model (InfoPM, closely related to integrated population models) that incorporated prior information for age‐structured vital rates and relative juvenile availability. We applied both models to multiyear, removal trapping time‐series of a large invasive lizard (Argentine black and white tegu, Salvator merianae) in three management areas of South Florida to evaluate the effectiveness of management programs. Although estimates of the two models were similar, the InfoPMs generally returned more precise estimates, partitioned dynamics into births, deaths, net migration, and provided a decision support tool to predict population dynamics under different effort scenarios while accounting for uncertainty. Trends in tegu superpopulation abundance estimates were increasing in two management areas despite generally high removal rates. However, tegu abundance appeared to decline in the Core management area, where trapping density was the highest and immigration the lowest. Finally, comparing abundance predictions of no‐removal scenarios to those estimated in each management area suggested significant population reductions due to management. These results suggest that local tegu population control via systematic trapping may be feasible with high enough trap density and limited immigration; and highlights the value of these trapping programs. We provided the first estimates of tegu abundance, capture probabilities, and population dynamics, which is critical for effective management. Furthermore, our models are applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs (e.g., carcass recovery or removal point‐counts).  相似文献   

16.
In addition to the threats of habitat loss and degradation, adult males of the Asian elephant Elephas maximus also face greater threats from ivory poaching and conflict with humans. To understand the impact of these threats, conservationists need robust estimates of abundance and vital rates specifically for the adult male segment of elephant populations. By integrating the identification of individual male elephants in a population from distinct morphology and natural markings, with modern capture–recapture (CR) sampling designs, it is possible to estimate various demographic parameters that are otherwise difficult to obtain from this long-lived and wide-ranging megaherbivore. In this study, we developed systematic individual identification protocols and integrated them into CR sampling designs to obtain capture histories and thereby estimate the abundance of adult bull elephants in a globally important population in southern India. We validated these estimates against those obtained from an independent method combining line-transect density estimates with age–sex composition data for elephants. The sampled population was open to gains and losses between sampling occasions. The abundance of adult males in the 176 km2 study area was (SÊ ) = 134(14.20) and they comprised 14% (±1%) of the total elephant population. Time-specific abundance estimates for each sampling occasion showed a distinct increase in adult male numbers over the sampling period, explained by seasonal patterns of local migration. CR-based estimates for adult male abundance closely matched estimates from distance-based methods. Thus, while providing abundance data of comparable rigour and precision, photographic CR methods permit estimation of demographic parameters for the Asian elephant that are both urgently needed and difficult to obtain.  相似文献   

17.
Capture-recapture models are widely used to estimate demographic parameters of marked populations. Recently, this statistical theory has been extended to modeling dispersal of open populations. Multistate models can be used to estimate movement probabilities among subdivided populations if multiple sites are sampled. Frequently, however, sampling is limited to a single site. Models described by Burnham (1993, in Marked Individuals in the Study of Bird Populations, 199-213), which combined open population capture-recapture and band-recovery models, can be used to estimate permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. Similarly, Kendall, Nichols, and Hines (1997, Ecology 51, 563-578) developed models to estimate temporary emigration under Pollock's (1982, Journal of Wildlife Management 46, 757-760) robust design. We describe a likelihood-based approach to simultaneously estimate temporary and permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. We use a sampling design that combines the robust design and recoveries of individuals obtained immediately following each sampling period. We present a general form for our model where temporary emigration is a first-order Markov process, and we discuss more restrictive models. We illustrate these models with analysis of data on marked Canvasback ducks. Our analysis indicates that probability of permanent emigration for adult female Canvasbacks was 0.193 (SE = 0.082) and that birds that were present at the study area in year i - 1 had a higher probability of presence in year i than birds that were not present in year i - 1.  相似文献   

18.
Link WA  Barker RJ 《Biometrics》2005,61(1):46-54
We present a hierarchical extension of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for open population capture-recapture data. In addition to recaptures of marked animals, we model first captures of animals and losses on capture. The parameter set includes capture probabilities, survival rates, and birth rates. The survival rates and birth rates are treated as a random sample from a bivariate distribution, thus the model explicitly incorporates correlation in these demographic rates. A key feature of the model is that the likelihood function, which includes a CJS model factor, is expressed entirely in terms of identifiable parameters; losses on capture can be factored out of the model. Since the computational complexity of classical likelihood methods is prohibitive, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo in a Bayesian analysis. We describe an efficient candidate-generation scheme for Metropolis-Hastings sampling of CJS models and extensions. The procedure is illustrated using mark-recapture data for the moth Gonodontis bidentata.  相似文献   

19.
The population size of the solitary digger bee Andrena vaga was documented using mark-recapture methods during 4 consecutive years (1996–1999). Additionally, the numbers of the parasitoids Nomada lathburiana and Bombylius major were estimated. For calculations of the daily population size, the Jolly-Seber model for open populations with time-dependent survival and capture rates was used. The mean daily population size corresponded well to the number of nests marked in the aggregation of A. vaga. The method of mark-recapture achieved the most accurate data when the number of sampling periods and the capture probability was high. The results document a decrease in population size of the investigated A. vaga aggregation during 4 successive years. A population increase of its parasitoids B. major is considered to be one reason for the population decline of A. vaga in 1999. The sex ratio of A. vaga was biased toward females, contrary to the expected higher number of males. Results of the mark-recapture studies showed that up to 50% of females left the aggregation or died at the beginning of the season. The females probably colonized new aggregations at distances further than 200 m away from their birth aggregation, as no marked females were observed in the environs of the study area. This behavior is interpreted as a parasite avoidance strategy. The bee populations in the study area form a web of interconnected aggregations. Apparently a flux of extinction and recolonization exists between the different aggregations.  相似文献   

20.
ABSTRACT Conservation and management of small mammals requires reliable knowledge of population size. We investigated precision of mark-recapture and removal abundance estimates generated from live-trapping and snap-trapping data collected at sites on Guam (n = 7), Rota (n = 4), Saipan (n = 5), and Tinian (n = 3), in the Mariana Islands. We also evaluated a common index, captures per unit effort (CPUE), as a predictor of abundance. In addition, we evaluated cost and time associated with implementing live-trapping and snap-trapping and compared species-specific capture rates of selected live- and snap-traps. For all species, mark-recapture estimates were consistently more precise than removal estimates based on coefficients of variation and 95% confidence intervals. The predictive utility of CPUE was poor but improved with increasing sampling duration. Nonetheless, modeling of sampling data revealed that underlying assumptions critical to application of an index of abundance, such as constant capture probability across space, time, and individuals, were not met. Although snap-trapping was cheaper and faster than live-trapping, the time difference was negligible when site preparation time was considered. Rattus diardii spp. captures were greatest in Haguruma live-traps (Standard Trading Co., Honolulu, HI) and Victor snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation, Lititz, PA), whereas Suncus murinus and Mus musculus captures were greatest in Sherman live-traps (H. B. Sherman Traps, Inc., Tallahassee, FL) and Museum Special snap-traps (Woodstream Corporation). Although snap-trapping and CPUE may have utility after validation against more rigorous methods, validation should occur across the full range of study conditions. Resources required for this level of validation would likely be better allocated towards implementing rigorous and robust methods.  相似文献   

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