Indicators measuring the performance of malaria programs supported by the global fund in Asia, progress and the way forward

Introduction

In 2010, the Global Fund provided more than 75% of external international financing for malaria control. The Global Fund uses performance based funding in the grants it finances. This paper analyses the indicators used to measure the performance of Global Fund supported malaria grants in Asia.

Methods

Indicators used in the performance frameworks for all Global Fund supported malaria grants in Asia were retrieved from grant database and grouped into impact, outcome, output and input categories and categorized by service delivery areas. Indicators of each group were compared over rounds. Indicators used in performance frameworks were compared with internationally adopted indicators included in the Monitoring and Evaluation Toolkit developed by the Global Fund and international technical agencies.

Results

Between 2002 and 2010, 1,434 indicators were included in the performance frameworks of the 48 malaria grants awarded in Asia, including 229 impact and 227 outcome indicators, 437 output and 541 input indicators, with an average of 29.9 indicators per grant. The proportion of impact and outcome indicators increased over rounds, with that of input indicators declining from 44.1% in Round 1 to 22.7% in Round 9.

Conclusions

Input indicators, which have predominated the performance frameworks of the Global Fund supported malaria programs in Asia have declined between Rounds 1 and 9. However, increased alignment with internationally adopted indicators included in the Monitoring and Evaluation Toolkit is needed to improve the validity of reported results.     

Scaling up towards international targets for AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria: contribution of global fund-supported programs in 2011-2015

Objective

The paper projects the contribution to 2011–2015 international targets of three major pandemics by programs in 140 countries funded by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the largest external financier of tuberculosis and malaria programs and a major external funder of HIV programs in low and middle income countries.

Design

Estimates, using past trends, for the period 2011–2015 of the number of persons receiving antiretroviral (ARV) treatment, tuberculosis case detection using the internationally approved DOTS strategy, and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to be delivered by programs in low and middle income countries supported by the Global Fund compared to international targets established by UNAIDS, Stop TB Partnership, Roll Back Malaria Partnership and the World Health Organisation.

Results

Global Fund-supported programs are projected to provide ARV treatment to 5.5–5.8 million people, providing 30%–31% of the 2015 international target. Investments in tuberculosis and malaria control will enable reaching in 2015 60%–63% of the international target for tuberculosis case detection and 30%–35% of the ITN distribution target in sub-Saharan Africa.

Conclusion

Global Fund investments will substantially contribute to the achievement by 2015 of international targets for HIV, TB and malaria. However, additional large scale international and domestic financing is needed if these targets are to be reached by 2015.     

Adoption of rapid diagnostic tests for the diagnosis of malaria, a preliminary analysis of the global fund program data, 2005 to 2010

Introduction

The World Health Organization Guidelines for the Treatment of Malaria, in 2006 and 2010, recommend parasitological confirmation of malaria before commencing treatment. Although microscopy has been the mainstay of malaria diagnostics, the magnitude of diagnostic scale up required to follow the Guidelines suggests that rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) will be a large component. This study analyzes the adoption of rapid diagnostic testing in malaria programs supported by the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund), the leading international funder of malaria control globally.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed, for the period 2005 to 2010, Global Fund programmatic data for 81 countries on the quantity of RDTs planned; actual quantities of RDTs and artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) procured in 2009 and 2010; RDT-related activities including RDTs distributed, RDTs used, total diagnostic tests including RDTs and microscopy performed, health facilities equipped with RDTs; personnel trained to perform rapid diagnostic malaria test; and grant budgets allocated to malaria diagnosis. In 2010, diagnosis accounted for 5.2% of malaria grant budget. From 2005 to 2010, the procurement plans include148 million RDTs through 96 malaria grants in 81 countries. Around 115 million parasitological tests, including RDTs, had reportedly been performed from 2005 to 2010. Over this period, 123,132 health facilities were equipped with RDTs and 137,140 health personnel had been trained to perform RDT examinations. In 2009 and 2010, 41 million RDTs and 136 million ACTs were purchased. The ratio of procured RDTs to ACTs was 0.26 in 2009 and 0.34 in 2010.

Conclusions/significance

Global Fund financing has enabled 81 malaria-endemic countries to adopt WHO guidelines by investing in RDTs for malaria diagnosis, thereby helping improve case management of acute febrile illness in children. However, roll-out of parasitological diagnosis lags behind the roll-out of ACT-based treatment, and will require prioritization of investments.     

Effect of investment in malaria control on child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa in 2002-2008

Background

Around 8.8 million children under-five die each year, mostly due to infectious diseases, including malaria that accounts for 16% of deaths in Africa, but the impact of international financing of malaria control on under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa has not been examined.

Methods and Findings

We combined multiple data sources and used panel data regression analysis to study the relationship among investment, service delivery/intervention coverage, and impact on child health by observing changes in 34 sub-Saharan African countries over 2002–2008. We used Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of lives saved from coverage increase of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs)/indoor residual spraying (IRS). As an indicator of outcome, we also used under-five mortality rate. Global Fund investments comprised more than 70% of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) for malaria control in 34 countries. Each $1 million ODA for malaria enabled distribution of 50,478 ITNs [95%CI: 37,774–63,182] in the disbursement year. 1,000 additional ITNs distributed saved 0.625 lives [95%CI: 0.369–0.881]. Cumulatively Global Fund investments that increased ITN/IRS coverage in 2002–2008 prevented an estimated 240,000 deaths. Countries with higher malaria burden received less ODA disbursement per person-at-risk compared to lower-burden countries ($3.90 vs. $7.05). Increased ITN/IRS coverage in high-burden countries led to 3,575 lives saved per 1 million children, as compared with 914 lives in lower-burden countries. Impact of ITN/IRS coverage on under-five mortality was significant among major child health interventions such as immunisation showing that 10% increase in households with ITN/IRS would reduce 1.5 [95%CI: 0.3–2.8] child deaths per 1000 live births.

Conclusions

Along with other key child survival interventions, increased ITNs/IRS coverage has significantly contributed to child mortality reduction since 2002. ITN/IRS scale-up can be more efficiently prioritized to countries where malaria is a major cause of child deaths to save greater number of lives with available resources.     

How Well Are Malaria Maps Used to Design and Finance Malaria Control in Africa?

Introduction

Rational decision making on malaria control depends on an understanding of the epidemiological risks and control measures. National Malaria Control Programmes across Africa have access to a range of state-of-the-art malaria risk mapping products that might serve their decision-making needs. The use of cartography in planning malaria control has never been methodically reviewed.

Materials and Methods

An audit of the risk maps used by NMCPs in 47 malaria endemic countries in Africa was undertaken by examining the most recent national malaria strategies, monitoring and evaluation plans, malaria programme reviews and applications submitted to the Global Fund. The types of maps presented and how they have been used to define priorities for investment and control was investigated.

Results

91% of endemic countries in Africa have defined malaria risk at sub-national levels using at least one risk map. The range of risk maps varies from maps based on suitability of climate for transmission; predicted malaria seasons and temperature/altitude limitations, to representations of clinical data and modelled parasite prevalence. The choice of maps is influenced by the source of the information. Maps developed using national data through in-country research partnerships have greater utility than more readily accessible web-based options developed without inputs from national control programmes. Although almost all countries have stratification maps, only a few use them to guide decisions on the selection of interventions allocation of resources for malaria control.

Conclusion

The way information on the epidemiology of malaria is presented and used needs to be addressed to ensure evidence-based added value in planning control. The science on modelled impact of interventions must be integrated into new mapping products to allow a translation of risk into rational decision making for malaria control. As overseas and domestic funding diminishes, strategic planning will be necessary to guide appropriate financing for malaria control.     

International funding for malaria control in relation to populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum transmission

Background

The international financing of malaria control has increased significantly in the last ten years in parallel with calls to halve the malaria burden by the year 2015. The allocation of funds to countries should reflect the size of the populations at risk of infection, disease, and death. To examine this relationship, we compare an audit of international commitments with an objective assessment of national need: the population at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in 2007.

Methods and Findings

The national distributions of populations at risk of stable P. falciparum transmission were projected to the year 2007 for each of 87 P. falciparum–endemic countries. Systematic online- and literature-based searches were conducted to audit the international funding commitments made for malaria control by major donors between 2002 and 2007. These figures were used to generate annual malaria funding allocation (in US dollars) per capita population at risk of stable P. falciparum in 2007. Almost US$1 billion are distributed each year to the 1.4 billion people exposed to stable P. falciparum malaria risk. This is less than US$1 per person at risk per year. Forty percent of this total comes from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Substantial regional and national variations in disbursements exist. While the distribution of funds is found to be broadly appropriate, specific high population density countries receive disproportionately less support to scale up malaria control. Additionally, an inadequacy of current financial commitments by the international community was found: under-funding could be from 50% to 450%, depending on which global assessment of the cost required to scale up malaria control is adopted.

Conclusions

Without further increases in funding and appropriate targeting of global malaria control investment it is unlikely that international goals to halve disease burdens by 2015 will be achieved. Moreover, the additional financing requirements to move from malaria control to malaria elimination have not yet been considered by the scientific or international community.     

Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine vs. Artemether-Lumefantrine for First-Line Treatment of Uncomplicated Malaria in African Children: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Background

Recent multi-centre trials showed that dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) was as efficacious and safe as artemether-lumefantrine (AL) for treatment of young children with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria across diverse transmission settings in Africa. Longitudinal follow-up of patients in these trials supported previous findings that DP had a longer post-treatment prophylactic effect than AL, reducing the risk of reinfection and conferring additional health benefits to patients, particularly in areas with moderate to high malaria transmission.

Methods

We developed a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of DP versus AL for first-line treatment of uncomplicated malaria in young children from the provider perspective, taking into consideration the post-treatment prophylactic effects of the drugs as reported by a recent multi-centre trial in Africa and using the maximum manufacturer drug prices for artemisinin-based combination therapies set by the Global Fund in 2013. We estimated the price per course of treatment threshold above which DP would cease to be a cost-saving alternative to AL as a first-line antimalarial drug.

Results

First-line treatment with DP compared to AL averted 0.03 DALYs (95% CI: 0.006–0.07) and 0.001 deaths (95% CI: 0.00–0.002) and saved $0.96 (95% CI: 0.33–2.46) per child over one year. The results of the threshold analysis showed that DP remained cost-saving over AL for any DP cost below $1.23 per course of treatment.

Conclusions

DP is superior to AL from both the clinical and economic perspectives for treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in young children. A paediatric dispersible formulation of DP is under development and should facilitate a targeted deployment of this antimalarial drug. The use of DP as first-line antimalarial drug in paediatric malaria patients in moderate to high transmission areas of Africa merits serious consideration by health policymakers.     

Analyzing media coverage of the global fund diseases compared with lower funded diseases (childhood pneumonia, diarrhea and measles)

Background

Pneumonia, diarrhea and measles are the leading causes of death in children worldwide, but have a disproportionately low share of international funding and media attention [1]–[3]. In comparison, AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria - diseases that also significantly affect children – receive considerably more funding and have relatively high media coverage. This study investigates the potential relationship between media agenda setting and funding levels in the context of the actual burden of disease.

Methods

The news databases Lexis Nexis, Factiva, and Google News Archive were searched for the diseases AIDS, TB and Malaria and for lower funded pediatric diseases: childhood pneumonia, diarrhea, and measles. A sample of news articles across geographic regions was also analyzed using a qualitative narrative frame analysis of how the media stories were told.

Results

There were significantly more articles addressing the Global Fund diseases compared to the lower funded pediatric diseases between 1981 and 2008 (1,344,150 versus 291,865 articles). There were also notable differences in the framing of media narratives: 1) There was a high proportion of articles with the primary purpose of raising awareness for AIDS, TB and malaria (46.2%) compared with only 17.9% of the pediatric disease articles. 2) Nearly two-thirds (61.5%) of the AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria articles used a human rights, legal or social justice frame, compared with 46.2% for the lower funded pediatric disease articles, which primarily used an ethical or moral frame.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that lower funded pediatric diseases are presented differently in the media, both quantitatively and qualitatively, than higher funded, higher profile diseases.     

Long-term costs and health impact of continued global fund support for antiretroviral therapy

Background

By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020.

Methods and Findings

Survival on first-line and second-line ART regimens is estimated based on annual retention rates reported by national AIDS programs. Costs per patient-year were calculated from country-reported ARV procurement prices, and expenditures on laboratory tests, health care utilization and end-of-life care from in-depth costing studies. Of the 3.5 million ART patients in 2011, 2.3 million will still need treatment in 2020. The annual cost of maintaining ART falls from $1.9 billion in 2011 to $1.7 billion in 2020, as a result of a declining number of surviving patients partially offset by increasing costs as more patients migrate to second-line therapy. The Global Fund is expected to continue being a major contributor to meeting this financial need, alongside other international funders and domestic resources. Costs would be $150 million less in 2020 with an annual 5% decline in first-line ARV prices and $150–370 million less with a 5%–12% annual decline in second-line prices, but $200 million higher in 2020 with phase out of stavudine (d4T), or $200 million higher with increased migration to second-line regimens expected if all countries routinely adopted viral load monitoring. Deaths postponed by ART correspond to 830,000 life-years saved in 2011, increasing to around 2.3 million life-years every year between 2015 and 2020.

Conclusions

Annual patient-level direct costs of supporting a patient cohort remain fairly stable over 2011–2020, if current antiretroviral prices and delivery costs are maintained. Second-line antiretroviral prices are a major cost driver, underscoring the importance of investing in treatment quality to improve retention on first-line regimens.     

NIH disease funding levels and burden of disease

Background

An analysis of NIH funding in 1996 found that the strongest predictor of funding, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), explained only 39% of the variance in funding. In 1998, Congress requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) evaluate priority-setting criteria for NIH funding; the IOM recommended greater consideration of disease burden. We examined whether the association between current burden and funding has changed since that time.

Methods

We analyzed public data on 2006 NIH funding for 29 common conditions. Measures of US disease burden in 2004 were obtained from the World Health Organization''s Global Burden of Disease study and national databases. We assessed the relationship between disease burden and NIH funding dollars in univariate and multivariable log-linear models that evaluated all measures of disease burden. Sensitivity analyses examined associations with future US burden, current and future measures of world disease burden, and a newly standardized NIH accounting method.

Results

In univariate and multivariable analyses, disease-specific NIH funding levels increased with burden of disease measured in DALYs (p = 0.001), which accounted for 33% of funding level variation. No other factor predicted funding in multivariable models. Conditions receiving the most funding greater than expected based on disease burden were AIDS ($2474 M), diabetes mellitus ($390 M), and perinatal conditions ($297 M). Depression ($719 M), injuries ($691 M), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ($613 M) were the most underfunded. Results were similar using estimates of future US burden, current and future world disease burden, and alternate NIH accounting methods.

Conclusions

Current levels of NIH disease-specific research funding correlate modestly with US disease burden, and correlation has not improved in the last decade.     

A sub-microscopic gametocyte reservoir can sustain malaria transmission

Background

Novel diagnostic tools, including PCR and high field gradient magnetic fractionation (HFGMF), have improved detection of asexual Plasmodium falciparum parasites and especially infectious gametocytes in human blood. These techniques indicate a significant number of people carry gametocyte densities that fall below the conventional threshold of detection achieved by standard light microscopy (LM).

Methodology/Principal Findings

To determine how low-level gametocytemia may affect transmission in present large-scale efforts for P. falciparum control in endemic areas, we developed a refinement of the classical Ross-Macdonald model of malaria transmission by introducing multiple infective compartments to model the potential impact of highly prevalent, low gametocytaemic reservoirs in the population. Models were calibrated using field-based data and several numerical experiments were conducted to assess the effect of high and low gametocytemia on P. falciparum transmission and control. Special consideration was given to the impact of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLIN), presently considered the most efficient way to prevent transmission, and particularly LLIN coverage similar to goals targeted by the Roll Back Malaria and Global Fund malaria control campaigns.Our analyses indicate that models which include only moderate-to-high gametocytemia (detectable by LM) predict finite eradication times after LLIN introduction. Models that include a low gametocytemia reservoir (requiring PCR or HFGMF detection) predict much more stable, persistent transmission. Our modeled outcomes result in significantly different estimates for the level and duration of control needed to achieve malaria elimination if submicroscopic gametocytes are included.

Conclusions/Significance

It will be very important to complement current methods of surveillance with enhanced diagnostic techniques to detect asexual parasites and gametocytes to more accurately plan, monitor and guide malaria control programs aimed at eliminating malaria.     

Comparing Cutaneous Research Funded by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases with 2010 Global Burden of Disease Results

Importance

Disease burden data helps guide research prioritization.

Objective

To determine the extent to which grants issued by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS) reflect disease burden, measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 project.

Design

Two investigators independently assessed 15 skin conditions studied by GBD 2010 in the NIAMS database for grants issued in 2013. The 15 skin diseases were matched to their respective DALYs from GBD 2010.

Setting

The United States NIAMS database and GBD 2010 skin condition disability data.

Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)

Relationship of NIAMS grant database topic funding with percent total GBD 2010 DALY and DALY rank for 15 skin conditions.

Results

During fiscal year 2013, 1,443 NIAMS grants were issued at a total value of $424 million. Of these grants, 17.7% covered skin topics. Of the total skin disease funding, 82% (91 grants) were categorized as “general cutaneous research.” Psoriasis, leprosy, and “other skin and subcutaneous diseases” (ie; immunobullous disorders, vitiligo, and hidradenitis suppurativa) were over-represented when funding was compared with disability. Conversely, cellulitis, decubitus ulcer, urticaria, acne vulgaris, viral skin diseases, fungal skin diseases, scabies, and melanoma were under-represented. Conditions for which disability and funding appeared well-matched were dermatitis, squamous and basal cell carcinoma, pruritus, bacterial skin diseases, and alopecia areata.

Conclusions and Relevance

Degree of representation in NIAMS is partly correlated with DALY metrics. Grant funding was well-matched with disability metrics for five of the 15 studied skin diseases, while two skin diseases were over-represented and seven were under-represented. Global burden estimates provide increasingly transparent and important information for investigating and prioritizing national research funding allocations.     

A Large Proportion of P. falciparum Isolates in the Amazon Region of Peru Lack pfhrp2 and pfhrp3: Implications for Malaria Rapid Diagnostic Tests

Background

Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) offer significant potential to improve the diagnosis of malaria, and are playing an increasing role in malaria case management, control and elimination. Peru, along with other South American countries, is moving to introduce malaria RDTs as components of malaria control programmes supported by the Global Fund for AIDS, TB and malaria. The selection of the most suitable malaria RDTs is critical to the success of the programmes.

Methods

Eight of nine microscopy positive P. falciparum samples collected in Iquitos, Peru tested negative or weak positive using HRP2-detecting RDTs. These samples were tested for the presence of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 and their flanking genes by PCR, as well as the presence of HRP proteins by ELISA. To investigate for geographic extent of HRP-deleted parasites and their temporal occurrence a retrospective study was undertaken on 148 microscopy positive P. falciparum samples collected in different areas of the Amazon region of Peru.

Findings

Eight of the nine isolates lacked the pfhrp2 and/or pfhrp3 genes and one or both flanking genes, and the absence of HRP was confirmed by ELISA. The retrospective study showed that 61 (41%) and 103 (70%) of the 148 samples lacked the pfhrp2 or pfhrp3 genes respectively, with 32 (21.6%) samples lacking both hrp genes.

Conclusions

This is the first documentation of P. falciparum field isolates lacking pfhrp2 and/or pfhrp3. The high frequency and wide distribution of different parasites lacking pfhrp2 and/or pfhrp3 in widely dispersed areas in the Peruvian Amazon implies that malaria RDTs targeting HRP2 will fail to detect a high proportion of P. falciparum in malaria-endemic areas of Peru and should not be used. RDTs detecting parasite LDH or aldolase and quality microscopy should be use for malaria diagnosis in this region. There is an urgent need for investigation of the abundance and geographic distribution of these parasites in Peru and neighbouring countries.     

National mass drug administration costs for lymphatic filariasis elimination

Background

Because lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination efforts are hampered by a dearth of economic information about the cost of mass drug administration (MDA) programs (using either albendazole with diethylcarbamazine [DEC] or albendazole with ivermectin), a multicenter study was undertaken to determine the costs of MDA programs to interrupt transmission of infection with LF. Such results are particularly important because LF programs have the necessary diagnostic and treatment tools to eliminate the disease as a public health problem globally, and already by 2006, the Global Programme to Eliminate LF had initiated treatment programs covering over 400 million of the 1.3 billion people at risk.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To obtain annual costs to carry out the MDA strategy, researchers from seven countries developed and followed a common cost analysis protocol designed to estimate 1) the total annual cost of the LF program, 2) the average cost per person treated, and 3) the relative contributions of the endemic countries and the external partners. Costs per person treated ranged from $0.06 to $2.23. Principal reasons for the variation were 1) the age (newness) of the MDA program, 2) the use of volunteers, and 3) the size of the population treated. Substantial contributions by governments were documented – generally 60%–90% of program operation costs, excluding costs of donated medications.

Conclusions/Significance

MDA for LF elimination is comparatively inexpensive in relation to most other public health programs. Governments and communities make the predominant financial contributions to actual MDA implementation, not counting the cost of the drugs themselves. The results highlight the impact of the use of volunteers on program costs and provide specific cost data for 7 different countries that can be used as a basis both for modifying current programs and for developing new ones.     

Continued Decline of Malaria in The Gambia with Implications for Elimination

Background

A substantial decline in malaria was reported to have occurred over several years until 2007 in the western part of The Gambia, encouraging consideration of future elimination in this previously highly endemic region. Scale up of interventions has since increased with support from the Global Fund and other donors.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We continued to examine laboratory records at four health facilities previously studied and investigated six additional facilities for a 7 year period, adding data from 243,707 slide examinations, to determine trends throughout the country until the end of 2009. We actively detected infections in a community cohort of 800 children living in rural villages throughout the 2008 malaria season, and assayed serological changes in another rural population between 2006 and 2009. Proportions of malaria positive slides declined significantly at all of the 10 health facilities between 2003 (annual mean across all sites, 38.7%) and 2009 (annual mean, 7.9%). Statistical modelling of trends confirmed significant seasonality and decline over time at each facility. Slide positivity was lowest in 2009 at all sites, except two where lowest levels were observed in 2006. Mapping households of cases presenting at the latter sites in 2007–2009 indicated that these were not restricted to a few residual foci. Only 2.8% (22/800) of a rural cohort of children had a malaria episode in the 2008 season, and there was substantial serological decline between 2006 and 2009 in a separate rural area.

Conclusions

Malaria has continued to decline in The Gambia, as indicated by a downward trend in slide positivity at health facilities, and unprecedented low incidence and seroprevalence in community surveys. We recommend intensification of control interventions for several years to further reduce incidence, prior to considering an elimination programme.     

Achieving a “Grand Convergence” in Global Health: Modeling the Technical Inputs,Costs, and Impacts from 2016 to 2030

Background

The Commission on Investing in Health published its report, GlobalHealth2035, in 2013, estimating an investment case for a grand convergence in health outcomes globally. In support of the drafting of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), we estimate what the grand convergence investment case might achieve—and what investment would be required—by 2030.

Methods and Findings

Our projection focuses on a sub-set of low-income (LIC) or lower-middle-income countries (LMIC). We start with a country-based (bottom-up) analysis of the costs and impact of scaling up reproductive, maternal, and child health tools, and select HIV and malaria interventions. We then incorporate global (top-down) analyses of the costs and impacts of scaling up existing tools for tuberculosis, additional HIV interventions, the costs to strengthen health systems, and the costs and benefits from scaling up new health interventions over the time horizon of this forecast. These data are then allocated to individual countries to provide an aggregate projection of potential cost and impact at the country level. Finally, incremental costs of R&D for low-income economies and the costs of addressing NTDs are added to provide a global total cost estimate of the investment scenario.

Results

Compared with a constant coverage scenario, there would be more than 60 million deaths averted in LIC and 70 million deaths averted in LMIC between 2016 and 2030. For the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030, the incremental costs of convergence in LIC would be (US billion) $24.3, $21.8, $24.7, and $27, respectively; in LMIC, the incremental costs would be (US billion) $34.75, $38.9, $48.7, and $56.3, respectively.

Conclusion

Key health outcomes in low- and low-middle income countries can significantly converge with those of wealthier countries by 2030, and the notion of a “grand convergence” may serve as a unifying theme for health indicators in the SDGs.     

G6PD Deficiency Prevalence and Estimates of Affected Populations in Malaria Endemic Countries: A Geostatistical Model-Based Map

Background

Primaquine is a key drug for malaria elimination. In addition to being the only drug active against the dormant relapsing forms of Plasmodium vivax, primaquine is the sole effective treatment of infectious P. falciparum gametocytes, and may interrupt transmission and help contain the spread of artemisinin resistance. However, primaquine can trigger haemolysis in patients with a deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDd). Poor information is available about the distribution of individuals at risk of primaquine-induced haemolysis. We present a continuous evidence-based prevalence map of G6PDd and estimates of affected populations, together with a national index of relative haemolytic risk.

Methods and Findings

Representative community surveys of phenotypic G6PDd prevalence were identified for 1,734 spatially unique sites. These surveys formed the evidence-base for a Bayesian geostatistical model adapted to the gene''s X-linked inheritance, which predicted a G6PDd allele frequency map across malaria endemic countries (MECs) and generated population-weighted estimates of affected populations. Highest median prevalence (peaking at 32.5%) was predicted across sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Although G6PDd prevalence was generally lower across central and southeast Asia, rarely exceeding 20%, the majority of G6PDd individuals (67.5% median estimate) were from Asian countries. We estimated a G6PDd allele frequency of 8.0% (interquartile range: 7.4–8.8) across MECs, and 5.3% (4.4–6.7) within malaria-eliminating countries. The reliability of the map is contingent on the underlying data informing the model; population heterogeneity can only be represented by the available surveys, and important weaknesses exist in the map across data-sparse regions. Uncertainty metrics are used to quantify some aspects of these limitations in the map. Finally, we assembled a database of G6PDd variant occurrences to inform a national-level index of relative G6PDd haemolytic risk. Asian countries, where variants were most severe, had the highest relative risks from G6PDd.

Conclusions

G6PDd is widespread and spatially heterogeneous across most MECs where primaquine would be valuable for malaria control and elimination. The maps and population estimates presented here reflect potential risk of primaquine-associated harm. In the absence of non-toxic alternatives to primaquine, these results represent additional evidence to help inform safe use of this valuable, yet dangerous, component of the malaria-elimination toolkit. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Cost-effectiveness of pre-referral antimalarial, antibacterial, and combined rectal formulations for severe febrile illness

Background

Malaria and bacterial infections account for most infectious disease deaths in developing countries. Prompt treatment saves lives, but rapid deterioration often prevents the use of oral therapies; delays in reaching health facilities providing parenteral interventions are common. Rapidly and reliably absorbed antimalarial/antibacterial rectal formulations used in the community could prevent deaths and disabilities. Rectal antimalarial treatments are currently available; rectal antibacterial treatments are yet to be developed. Assessment of the likely cost-effectiveness of these interventions will inform research priorities and implementation.

Methods and Findings

The burden of malaria and bacterial infections worldwide and in Sub-Saharan and Southern Africa (SSA) and South and South-East Asia (SEA) was summarised using published data. The additional healthcare costs (US$) per death and per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) avoided following pre-referral treatment of severe febrile illness with rectal antimalarials, antibacterials or combined antimalarial/antibacterials in populations at malaria risk in SSA/SEA were assessed. 46 million severe malaria and bacterial infections and 5 million deaths occur worldwide each year, mostly in SSA/SEA. At annual delivery costs of $0.02/capita and 100% coverage, rectal antimalarials ($2 per dose) would avert 240,000 deaths in SSA and 7,000 deaths in SEA at $5 and $177 per DALY avoided, respectively; rectal antibacterials ($2 per dose) would avert 130,000 deaths in SSA and 27,000 deaths in SEA at $19 and $97 per DALY avoided, respectively. Combined rectal formulations ($2.50 per dose) would avert 370,000 deaths in SSA and 33,000 deaths in SEA at $8 and $79 per DALY avoided, respectively, and are a cost-effective alternative to rectal antimalarials or antibacterials alone.

Conclusions

Antimalarial, antibacterial and combined rectal formulations are likely to be cost-effective interventions for severe febrile illness in the community. Attention should focus on developing effective rectal antibacterials and ensuring that these lifesaving treatments are used in a cost-effective manner.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Long-Lasting Insecticide-Treated Hammocks in Preventing Malaria in South-Central Vietnam

Background

Despite much success in reducing the burden of malaria in Vietnam, pockets of malaria persist and eliminating them remains an important development goal. In central Vietnam, insecticide-treated hammocks have recently been introduced to help counter the disease in the highly forested, mountainous areas, where other measures have so far been unsuccessful. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of using long-lasting insecticide-treated hammocks in this area.

Methods and Findings

This cost-effectiveness study was run alongside a randomized control trial testing the efficacy of the long-lasting insecticide-treated hammocks. Data were collected through an exit survey, a household survey, expenditure records and key informant interviews. The study estimates that under normal (non-trial) conditions the total net societal cost per malaria episode averted in using long-lasting insecticide-treated hammocks in this area was 126 USD. Cost per hammock, including insecticidal netting, sewing, transport, and distribution was found to be approximately 11.76 USD per hammock. Average savings per episode averted were estimated to be $14.60 USD for the health system and 14.37 USD for households (including both direct and indirect cost savings). The study estimates that the annual financial outlay required of government to implement this type of programme to be 3.40 USD per person covered per year.

Conclusion

The study finds that the use of a hammock intervention could represent good value for money to help prevent malaria in more remote areas, where traditional control measures such as insecticide-treated bednets and indoor residual spraying are insufficient or inappropriate to control malaria. However, the life span of the hammock–the number of years over which it effectively deters mosquitoes–has a significant impact on the cost-effectiveness of the intervention and study results should be interpreted in light of the evidence on effectiveness gathered in the years to come.     

Integrated HIV testing, malaria, and diarrhea prevention campaign in Kenya: modeled health impact and cost-effectiveness

Background

Efficiently delivered interventions to reduce HIV, malaria, and diarrhea are essential to accelerating global health efforts. A 2008 community integrated prevention campaign in Western Province, Kenya, reached 47,000 individuals over 7 days, providing HIV testing and counseling, water filters, insecticide-treated bed nets, condoms, and for HIV-infected individuals cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and referral for ongoing care. We modeled the potential cost-effectiveness of a scaled-up integrated prevention campaign.

Methods

We estimated averted deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) based on published data on baseline mortality and morbidity and on the protective effect of interventions, including antiretroviral therapy. We incorporate a previously estimated scaled-up campaign cost. We used published costs of medical care to estimate savings from averted illness (for all three diseases) and the added costs of initiating treatment earlier in the course of HIV disease.

Results

Per 1000 participants, projected reductions in cases of diarrhea, malaria, and HIV infection avert an estimated 16.3 deaths, 359 DALYs and $85,113 in medical care costs. Earlier care for HIV-infected persons adds an estimated 82 DALYs averted (to a total of 442), at a cost of $37,097 (reducing total averted costs to $48,015). Accounting for the estimated campaign cost of $32,000, the campaign saves an estimated $16,015 per 1000 participants. In multivariate sensitivity analyses, 83% of simulations result in net savings, and 93% in a cost per DALY averted of less than $20.

Discussion

A mass, rapidly implemented campaign for HIV testing, safe water, and malaria control appears economically attractive.