西北印度洋卡尔斯伯格脊卧蚕热液羽流影响区细菌群落结构特征及其演化

【目的】热液羽流影响区包括热液羽流流经区域和羽流中性浮力层下方受热液颗粒物影响的区域。随着热液羽流的演化,热液羽流影响区内微生物群落的结构组成也会发生相应的变化,但是,由于观测和取样困难等原因,迄今热液羽流影响区不同空间位置微生物的群落结构特征及其在月际尺度上的演化尚不清楚。【方法】中国大洋49航次在卧蚕1号热液喷口东南侧300 m处投放了沉积物捕获器锚系,在不同离底高度开展了为期18个月的观测和时序采水。本文采用Illumina MiSeq高通量测序技术对水样中的微生物类群进行测序分析,结合现场实时探测的浊度异常资料,研究卧蚕热液区附近中性浮力羽流和热液颗粒沉降区细菌群落结构的特征和演化及其影响因素。【结果】结果表明,样品中细菌群落以γ-变形菌纲(Gammaproteobacteria)、弯曲菌纲(Camplylobacteria)、α-变形菌纲(Alphaproteobacteria)、拟杆菌纲(Bacteroidia)、梭菌纲(Clostridia)和脱硫叶菌纲(Desulfobulbia)为主。在时间上,优势类群的相对丰度随浊度起伏发生变化,当浊度异常值升高时,弯曲菌纲相对丰度...     

西北印度洋卡尔斯伯格脊卧蚕热液羽流影响区古菌群落动态变化特征

【目的】热液羽流在浮力上升和非浮力侧向迁移过程中与背景海水不断进行物质和能量的交换。因海底热液活动和洋流的流速流向均存在动态变化性,热液羽流的高度、物理化学参数和微生物群落也随时空发生演化。然而,由于缺乏热液羽流的长期监测和时序取样,微生物群落(尤其是古菌)的多样性及其时空演化尚不清楚。【方法】2018年7月-2019年6月,在卧蚕1号热液喷口东南300 m处放置了一套带有2个沉积物捕获器(分别距海底300 m和40 m)和一个浊度仪(距海底150 m)的锚系潜标,对热液羽流和热液羽流下方颗粒物沉降区的近底水样进行了为期18个月的观测和时序采样。本研究采用16S rRNA基因高通量测序技术研究了水样中古菌群落的多样性,以了解羽流层和近底沉降层古菌群落结构的特征与时空演化。【结果】热原体纲(Thermoplasmata)、甲烷八叠球菌纲(Methanosarcinia)和甲烷杆菌纲(Methanobacteria)等热液来源古菌,当浊度异常值较高时,它们的丰度也增加。从空间上看,热液羽流区和近底沉降区古菌群落结构在门和纲水平上具有相似性,但在目水平上表现出差异性,而且各主要类群的相对丰度也存在差异,其中热原体纲在羽流层中的丰度普遍高于近底沉降层,而氨氧化古菌和甲烷八叠球菌纲在沉降层的丰度较高。【结论】卧蚕热液区东南300 m热液羽流层和近底沉降层均受到了热液的影响,羽流层受热液影响的程度相对更显著,而近底沉降层除了受到一定程度的热液影响外,还可能受到了再悬浮沉积物的影响。热液贡献大小的动态变化和底层沉积物再悬浮可能是造成热液区近端水体古菌群落时空异质性的主要因素。本研究深化了对热液影响区古生菌群落结构及其月际尺度时空分布特征的认识。     

全球变化背景下野火研究进展

野火是森林和多种植被生态系统面临的最重要自然干扰,也是一种重要的自然灾害;而人类活动已在全球范围内显著影响了野火的发生与分布,因此野火成为全球变化及其环境影响研究的关键议题之一。本文基于国际野火研究的文献搜索和统计分析,从野火的观测-评估-预警技术、野火时空格局研究、气候变化和人类活动对野火的影响、野火的环境-生态-进化效应等方面入手,综述了自21世纪以来的国际野火研究进展。概括起来,遥感技术的快速发展,推动了野火观测的时空分辨率不断提高,对野火时空格局的刻画从单一因子向多重指标的火烧体系评估转变。气候变化在某些区域已经显著影响了野火的发生频率,预计随着全球变暖野火风险将进一步加大,并且极端大火的发生机制和生态影响越来越受到关注。人类活动一方面通过增加火源提高了野火频率,另一方面又通过提高生态系统管理的强度、扑救火灾以及降低可燃物的连通性抑制了野火的发生。植被在长期演化过程中形成了一系列适应火的功能机制,这些功能属性影响着生态系统对野火的响应,并对火后生态恢复和重建具有科学指导价值。未来野火研究将向跨时空尺度、观测和模拟深度融合、典型机制和大尺度效应相结合的方向发展。     

基于MODIS的中国野火时空分布格局

野火是自然生态系统中重要的干扰因子,在维持生态系统多样性的同时,也对自然生态系统和人民的生命和财产构成重大威胁,野火时空分布格局研究有助于理解野火的发生规律,从而为野火的科学管理提供依据。本文基于MODIS火产品数据(2006—2012年),借助地理信息系统、遥感技术和SPSS统计软件,分析了中国野火的时空分布格局。结果表明:2006—2012年中国野火年过火面积呈下降趋势,年际变化波动较大,对年过火面积变化贡献率较大的省份主要分布在华南地区、西南地区和西北地区;中国野火过火面积月变化明显,其中3月过火面积最大,对月过火面积变化贡献率较大的是南方地区、西南地区、西北地区和东北地区;野火的发生和环境因子有密切关系为在丘陵地区、年降水量在400~800 mm的区域、年平均气温在0~10℃地区和针叶林中最易发生野火。本研究可为中国野火的火险区划和管理提供科学依据。     

运城盆地洪积扇全新世时期的野火与环境变化的初步探讨

通过对运城盆地典型黄土-古土壤剖面磁化率和炭屑含量的分析,研究了洪积扇全新世野火活动的规律及其与环境变化的关系。研究结果表明,在全新世早期(11500~8500 a B.P.), 气候向温湿过渡,但仍较干旱,炭屑含量较高,野火活动比较频繁,说明气候干旱是野火发生的重要原因。而全新世中期(8500~3100 a B.P.),除夏商文化时期外,炭屑含量在整个全新世时期居于最低,野火活动最为微弱,与此时期气候温暖湿润密切相关。但在夏商文化时期(3800~3500 a B.P.)炭屑浓度出现峰值,野火活动较为频繁,是人类生产和生活活动作用的结果。全新世晚期(3100~0 a B.P.)炭屑含量大幅度增加,野火活动最为频繁,一方面与气候向干旱化发展有关,另一方面与大范围的人类活动密切相关;在干旱的气候背景条件下, 人类活动加速了野火的发生频率和活动强度。     

利用增强回归树分析中国野火空间分布格局的影响因素

确定野火空间分布区格局的影响因素,对野火的预测、火险区划具有重要的意义,同时也为制定合理的野火管理措施提供科学依据。以中国2006—2011年野火发生面积和次数作为因变量,选取了5个影响因素,利用增强回归树(boosted regression tree,BRT)方法分析了影响野火空间分布格局的主要因素。结果表明:影响中国野火过火面积空间分布的因素从大到小依次是海拔(36.92%)、年平均气温(27.85%)、年平均降雨量(13.17%)、人口密度(13.00%)和植被类型(9.07%),总体来说,气候因子和海拔的差异决定了研究区过火面积的空间分布格局;影响中国野火火烧次数空间分布的因素从大到小依次是人口密度(27.44%)、海拔(25.97%)、植被类型(22.84%)、年平均气温(18.98%)和年平均降雨量(4.77%),可以看出,人类活动、地形和可燃物共同影响火烧次数的空间分布格局。建议在制定全国火险区划时,除了气候和植被因素外,还应该重点考虑地形,特别是海拔的影响;并且加强野外用火管理,开展可燃物的处理以减少野火的发生。     

烟草野火病的发生及综合防治研究进展

烟草野火病是由Pseudomonas syringae pv.tabaci引起的能够危害植株叶片、花、蒴果、种子等部位的细菌性病害,是世界上各主要产烟国普遍发生的细菌性病害,在我国,由于在近些年的烤烟生产中大面积种植不具有抗野火病特性的品种以及种植品种较为单一等原因,使得烟草野火病害的发生与发展日趋严重,逐步成为了影响我国烟草生产发展的一大障碍。本研究较系统地阐述了烟草野火病的发病特点、分类、致病性分化、生理特性、寄主范围、发生规律及综合防治等方面的研究,重点介绍了烟草野火病的病原学研究以及综合治理措施,为烟草野火病综合防治提供重要参考。     

拮抗菌群对烟草野火病的防治效果及叶际微生物群落多样性的影响

【背景】烟草野火病(Tobacco Wild Fire)是烟草上的主要病害之一,利用拮抗菌防治烟草野火病是具有较好前景的防治手段。【目的】分析烟草叶际微生物群落结构组成和多样性,阐释拮抗菌群施用对烟草野火病的防治效果及对叶际微生物群落的影响。【方法】在烟草上施用3种拮抗菌群,采用16Sr RNA基因高通量测序及生物信息学手段,分析拮抗菌群对烟草叶际微生物群落结构组成和多样性的影响,研究拮抗菌群在叶片上的定殖。【结果】拮抗菌群对烟草野火病的防治效果达到50.44%-68.58%。与对照相比,3种拮抗菌群处理叶际微生物群落结构和组成都产生了明显的变化,群落多样性显著增高。拮抗菌群处理后,烟草叶际微生物泛菌(Pantoea)、寡养单胞菌(Stenotrophomonas)和假单胞菌(Pseudomonas)等菌属所占比例发生显著变化,其中芽孢杆菌属(Bacillus)和寡养单胞菌属相比对照增加分别达到3.9倍和7.02倍,其丰度与病情指数显著负相关。【结论】拮抗菌群对烟草野火病有较好的防治效果,施用拮抗菌群显著影响叶际微生物群落的组成和多样性,假单孢杆菌和寡养单胞菌等优势菌属能够在烟草叶际定殖,起到防治烟草野火病的作用。     

中国西南四种常见松树火适应性状比较

野火对松属植物的进化和分布有重要的影响。在与野火长期抗争中,松属植物形成了一系列性状提高在易火生境中的适合度,维持种群生存与繁衍。西南地区是中国野火高发区,作为这一地区特有松树,云南松、思茅松和高山松具有一些典型的火适应性状,如厚树皮。以这3种松树和东部常见的马尾松为研究对象,比较4种松树的火适应对策。结果表明：4种松树的火适应性状存在一定的差异。与火适应相关的13项性状主成分分析显示,4个种在空间上总体是分离的,也表现出一些重叠。其中云南松火适应生活史对策是火耐受型和火依赖型的中间类型,适应会发生林冠火的生境。高山松、思茅松和马尾松都是火耐受型,通过快速高生长、厚树皮等性状适应生境不同频度的地表火。四种松树火适应对策与分布区火险基本相符。表明野火在这一区域广泛存在,并对植物进化和森林格局有重要影响。野火在西南地区松属分布和种群维持中的生态作用应被给予足够重视。     

西南印度洋深海热液羽流海水细菌的多样性

[目的]分析西南印度洋深海热液羽流细菌的多样性特点,为认识该特殊环境微生物对大洋生态系统的影响,以及获得特殊的微生物资源奠定基础.[方法]将西南印度洋深海热液羽流海水进行原位浓缩,对获得的1000倍浓缩海水样品进行富集培养和微生物纯培养 ;通过构建原始海水浓缩样品和富集培养物的16S rRNA基因克隆文库,结合纯培养获得的微生物菌株的16S rRNA基因,分析该样品的细菌多样性结构和特点.[结果]共获得104个16S rRNA基因,其中50个来自原始热液羽流浓缩海水样品,40个来自富集培养物,14个来自分离获得的纯培养,它们分属于γ-变形菌群(γ-Proteobacteria)(74个),α-变形菌群(α-Proteobacteria)(14个),β-变形菌群(β-Proteobacteria)(5个),拟杆菌群(Bacteroidetes)(4个),厚壁菌群(Firmicutes)(2个),浮霉状菌(Planctomycetes)(2个),疣微菌(Verrucomicrobia)(2个)以及放线菌(Actinobacteria)(1个),共29个不同的操作分类单元(Operational Taxonomic Units,OTUs).26个序列与已知微生物16S rRNA基因相似性低于97％,最低的只有86％.[结论]西南印度洋热液羽流存在较丰富的微生物多样性,以γ-Proteobacteria为优势类群,其次为α-Proteobacteria ;该环境中存在较多尚未获得分离培养的微生物新属种.     

浙江省1991~2006年森林火灾释放黑碳量的估算

黑碳气溶胶不仅造成环境污染危害人的健康,同时通过吸收太阳和大气辐射产生的辐射强迫对全球和区域产生影响,成为影响全球变暖的仅次于CO2的重要成分.在全球变暖及大气中CO2浓度不断升高的趋势下,各国开始采用造林再造林来减缓全球变暖的趋势,随着森林面积和林内生物量的不断增加,以及森林火灾的频发,林火带来的黑碳排放量也不容忽视.然而在世界上大部分地区,这方面的工作却很少被人所关注.根据1991～2006年浙江省森林火灾统计资料和浙江省各种森林类型地上生物量的数据,计算出了浙江省每年的森林火灾导致的生物量损失量.同时采取释放因子法,对1991～2006浙江省每年森林火灾释放的黑碳量进行了估算.其中1995年和2000年森林火灾释放的黑碳总量分别是38.4、97.2 t,占整个浙江省黑碳释放总量中的比重分别是0.12%、0.17%,对于区域大气质量有一定的影响.     

Spatial and temporal structures of pheromone plumes in fields and forests

Wind‐borne odour stimuli from a small point‐source of pheromone are intermittent owing to the effects of atmospheric turbulence on the odour plume. The work reported here measures the characteristics of the intermittent stimulus in open fields and forests during typical daytime atmospheric conditions. To model the pheromone plume, negatively charged atmospheric ions were used as a tracer. They were released from an ion generator, and ion detectors measured the fluctuating flux of ions at positions up to 20 m downwind in the open field case and 10 m in the forest. In both the open field and in the forest, ion signals were highly intermittent, with a signal present only 20% of the time. Ion signals recorded in the forest consisted of bursts with gaps between them of at least three‐fold greater duration than those from the open field. In both environments, bursts generally each comprised a series of ‘spikes’, on average three in the field and seven in the forest. To validate the use of ionized air plumes as models of pheromone plumes, the antennae of male Lymantria dispar (gypsy moth) were used as detectors to quantify the plume of synthetic (+)‐disparlure emanating from a 2000 ng point source placed ≈ 10 cm from the ion source. A comparison of ion signals and EAGs (electronantennograms) suggests that the antennae respond to the main spikes within a burst, but no consistent relationship between the strength of the spikes and the magnitude of the EAG response was found. The average strengths of bursts in the ion detector signal decreased systematically as the distance from the ion generator to the ion detector increased. A similar trend, however, was not detected in the EAG response.     

大兴安岭小尺度草甸火燃烧效率研究

燃烧效率是进行生物质燃烧温室气体释放量计算的关键因子,以大兴安岭典型草甸区为研究区域,通过样地调查和采样,应用GIS和地统计学的方法对燃烧格局和燃烧效率进行计算。结果表明:研究区域内草甸可燃物的平均载量为37.3t/hm²,草本层、枯落物层和腐殖层载量平均所占比例分别为18.50%,28.95%和52.55%。样地的块金系数分别在80.84%-97.88%之间变化,过火迹地的燃烧深度具有弱的空间相关性。研究区域内平均燃烧效率为64.51%,根据不同的火烧强度,研究区域的燃烧效率在44.35%-90.6%之间变化。     

森林火灾污染物质释放及其影响研究进展

森林火灾是大气中气体污染物和颗粒物的重要来源,可对全球气候系统、大气环境以及生态系统产生重要影响,对全球温室气体和含碳颗粒物释放具有重要的贡献,是推动全球气候变化的重要因素。森林火灾释放污染物已成为区域乃至全球范围内重要污染源之一,这些污染物质与辐射、能见度以及温室效应等问题直接相关。准确地描述森林火灾释放的气体和颗粒污染物释放机理、释放总量、时空分布特征、不同尺度的扩散过程模拟,以及对区域大气环境的影响,对于量化森林火灾释放污染物总量及区域影响具有重要意义。基于森林火灾污染物质释放方面的国内外文献,从火灾释放的污染物质对环境的影响、森林火灾释放污染物定量化和传输路径监测的研究方法、污染物质的扩散和运输模型以及跨区域影响等几个方面进行了综述。森林火灾释放的CO、PM₁₀和PM_2.5对环境和人的生命安全造成巨大威胁,而且森林火灾释放的污染物质能够随气流长距离传输,不仅对当地的空气造成污染,污染物也能够随着气团进行长距离传输,并在传输过程与当地气溶胶混合,形成跨区域污染。森林火灾释放污染物扩散、传输模拟通过不同模型相互耦合完成,包括可燃物载量估算模型、可燃物消耗和释放模型、污染物扩散传输模型,以及污染物预测和可视化模型等。总结了国内外森林火灾释放污染物质主要研究方法,并展望了今后研究重点:目前我国关于森林火灾释放物质相关的研究尚不足以支撑我国森林火灾温室气体释放、污染物释放等方面的研究,并且我国目前还没有发展出适合于我国的森林火灾污染物释放模型,以及污染物扩散、传输系统。森林火灾排放因子库大多数引用国外研究结果,在一定程度上增加不确定性,缺乏森林火灾对区域大气环境影响的定量化研究。因此,今后我国应加强对森林火灾污染物质释放与影响的研究,尤其是污染物质扩散和传输模型的预测和可视化研究以及排放因子的测量。     

不同烈度林火对油松林潜在地表火行为的影响

油松是我国华北地区代表性树种之一,含有丰富油脂,容易引发大面积高烈度森林火灾。阐明不同烈度林火对油松林地表可燃物负荷量和潜在地表火行为的影响,对于油松林林火管理具有重要意义。以辽河源自然保护区2014年不同烈度林火干扰后油松林分为研究对象,根据不同烈度(重度、中度、轻度)和对照(未过火)分别设置3块20 m×20 m样地,共12块样地,调查地表可燃物和林分结构指标,结合室内实验,利用BehavePlus 5.0软件进行潜在火行为模拟,探讨不同烈度林火5年后油松林地表可燃物负荷量和潜在地表火行为特点,并分析影响潜在地表火行为的主要因素。研究结果表明：(1)不同烈度林火之间,细小可燃物负荷量和地表可燃物总负荷量均不存在显著性差异(P>0.05)。(2)不同烈度林火后,在不同风速和可燃物含水率条件下,油松林潜在地表火蔓延速度、火线强度不存在显著性差异(P>0.05),单位面积发热量、火焰高度、反应强度存在显著性差异(P<0.05)。(3)不同烈度林火后油松林潜在地表火行为主要受油松更新幼苗基径、灌木负荷量、油松平均冠幅、上层枯叶负荷量、油松更新幼苗密度的影响。研究结果表明不...     

Local forest structure variability increases resilience to wildfire in dry western U.S. coniferous forests

A ‘resilient’ forest endures disturbance and is likely to persist. Resilience to wildfire may arise from feedback between fire behaviour and forest structure in dry forest systems. Frequent fire creates fine‐scale variability in forest structure, which may then interrupt fuel continuity and prevent future fires from killing overstorey trees. Testing the generality and scale of this phenomenon is challenging for vast, long‐lived forest ecosystems. We quantify forest structural variability and fire severity across >30 years and >1000 wildfires in California's Sierra Nevada. We find that greater variability in forest structure increases resilience by reducing rates of fire‐induced tree mortality and that the scale of this effect is local, manifesting at the smallest spatial extent of forest structure tested (90 × 90 m). Resilience of these forests is likely compromised by structural homogenisation from a century of fire suppression, but could be restored with management that increases forest structural variability.     

Return of Fire as a Restoration Tool: Long‐Term Effects of Burn Severity on Habitat Use by Mexican Fox Squirrels

After decades of suppression, fire is returning to forests of the western United States through wildfires and prescribed burns. These fires may aid restoration of vegetation structure and processes, which could improve conditions for wildlife species and reduce severe wildfire risk. Understanding response of wildlife species to fires is essential to forest restoration because contemporary fires may not have the same effects as historical fires. Recent fires in the Chiricahua Mountains of southeastern Arizona provided opportunity to investigate long‐term effects of burn severity on habitat selection of a native wildlife species. We surveyed burned forest for squirrel feeding sign and related vegetation characteristics to frequency of feeding sign occurrence. We used radio‐telemetry within fire‐influenced forest to determine home ranges of Mexican fox squirrels, Sciurus nayaritensis chiricahuae, and compared vegetation characteristics within home ranges to random areas available to squirrels throughout burned conifer forest. Squirrels fed in forest with open understory and closed canopy cover. Vegetation within home ranges was characterized by lower understory density, consistent with the effects of low‐severity fire, and larger trees than random locations. Our results suggest that return of low‐severity fire can help restore habitat for Mexican fox squirrels and other native wildlife species with similar habitat affiliations in forests with a historical regime of frequent, low‐severity fire. Our study contributes to an understanding of the role and impact of fire in forest ecosystems and the implications for forest restoration as fire returns to the region.     

Managed Wildfire Effects on Forest Resilience and Water in the Sierra Nevada

Fire suppression in many dry forest types has left a legacy of dense, homogeneous forests. Such landscapes have high water demands and fuel loads, and when burned can result in catastrophically large fires. These characteristics are undesirable in the face of projected warming and drying in the western US. Alternative forest and fire treatments based on managed wildfire—a regime in which fires are allowed to burn naturally and only suppressed under defined management conditions—offer a potential strategy to ameliorate the effects of fire suppression. Understanding the long-term effects of this strategy on vegetation, water, and forest resilience is increasingly important as the use of managed wildfire becomes more widely accepted. The Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park has experienced 40 years of managed wildfire, reducing forest cover by 22%, and increasing meadow areas by 200% and shrublands by 24%. Statistical upscaling of 3300 soil moisture observations made since 2013 suggests that large increases in wetness occurred in sites where fire caused transitions from forests to dense meadows. The runoff ratio (ratio of annual runoff to precipitation) from the basin appears to be increasing or stable since 1973, compared to declines in runoff ratio for nearby, unburned watersheds. Managed wildfire appears to increase landscape heterogeneity, and likely improves resilience to disturbances, such as fire and drought, although more detailed analysis of fire effects on basin-scale hydrology is needed.     

Changing growth response to wildfire in old‐growth ponderosa pine trees in montane forests of north central Idaho

North American fire‐adapted forests are experiencing changes in fire frequency and climate. These novel conditions may alter postwildfire responses of fire‐adapted trees that survive fires, a topic that has received little attention. Historical, frequent, low‐intensity wildfire in many fire‐adapted forests is generally thought to have a positive effect on the growth and vigor of trees that survive fires. Whether such positive effects can persist under current and future climate conditions is not known. Here, we evaluate long‐term responses to recurrent 20th‐century fires in ponderosa pine, a fire‐adapted tree species, in unlogged forests in north central Idaho. We also examine short‐term responses to individual 20th‐century fires and evaluate whether these responses have changed over time and whether potential variability relates to climate variables and time since last fire. Growth responses were assessed by comparing tree‐ring measurements from trees in stands burned repeatedly during the 20th century at roughly the historical fire frequency with trees in paired control stands that had not burned for at least 70 years. Contrary to expectations, only one site showed significant increases in long‐term growth responses in burned stands compared with control stands. Short‐term responses showed a trend of increasing negative effects of wildfire (reduced diameter growth in the burned stand compared with the control stand) in recent years that had drier winters and springs. There was no effect of time since the previous fire on growth responses to fire. The possible relationships of novel climate conditions with negative tree growth responses in trees that survive fire are discussed. A trend of negative growth responses to wildfire in old‐growth forests could have important ramifications for forest productivity and carbon balance under future climate scenarios.     

Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest wildfire regime response to the timing of spring.This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.