Context dependence, ancestral misidentification, and spurious signatures of natural selection

Population genetic analyses often use polymorphism data from one species, and orthologous genomic sequences from closely related outgroup species. These outgroup sequences are frequently used to identify ancestral alleles at segregating sites and to compare the patterns of polymorphism and divergence. Inherent in such studies is the assumption of parsimony, which posits that the ancestral state of each single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is the allele that matches the orthologous site in the outgroup sequence, and that all nucleotide substitutions between species have been observed. This study tests the effect of violating the parsimony assumption when mutation rates vary across sites and over time. Using a context-dependent mutation model that accounts for elevated mutation rates at CpG dinucleotides, increased propensity for transitional versus transversional mutations, as well as other directional and contextual mutation biases estimated along the human lineage, we show (using both simulations and a theoretical model) that enough unobserved substitutions could have occurred since the divergence of human and chimpanzee to cause many statistical tests to spuriously reject neutrality. Moreover, using both the chimpanzee and rhesus macaque genomes to parsimoniously identify ancestral states causes a large fraction of the data to be removed while not completely alleviating problem. By constructing a novel model of the context-dependent mutation process, we can correct polymorphism data for the effect of ancestral misidentification using a single outgroup.     

The rate of adaptation in asexuals

I study the population genetics of adaptation in asexuals. I show that the rate of adaptive substitution in an asexual species or nonrecombining chromosome region is a bell-shaped function of the mutation rate: at some point, increasing the mutation rate decreases the rate of substitution. Curiously, the mutation rate that maximizes the rate of adaptation depends solely on the strength of selection against deleterious mutations. In particular, adaptation is fastest when the genomic rate of mutation, U, equals the harmonic mean of selection coefficients against deleterious mutations, where we assume that selection for favorable alleles is milder than that against deleterious ones. This simple result is independent of the shape of the distribution of effects among favorable and deleterious mutations, population size, and the action of clonal interference. In the course of this work, I derive an approximation to the probability of fixation of a favorable mutation in an asexual genome or nonrecombining chromosome region in which both favorable and deleterious mutations occur.     

Evolution by Gene Duplication and Compensatory Advantageous Mutations

Relaxation of selective constraint is thought to play an important role for evolution by gene duplication, in connection with compensatory advantageous mutant substitutions. Models were investigated by incorporating gene duplication by unequal crossing over, selection, mutation and random genetic drift into Monte Carlo simulations. Compensatory advantageous mutations were introduced, and simulations were carried out with and without relaxation, when genes are redundant on chromosomes. Relaxation was introduced by assuming that deleterious mutants have no effect on fitness, so long as one or more genes free of such mutations remain in the array. Compensatory mutations are characterized by the intermediate deleterious step of their substitutions, and therefore relaxation by gene redundancy is important. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations, it was found that compensatory mutant substitutions require relaxation in addition to gene duplication, when mutant effects are large. However when mutant effects are small, such that the product of selection coefficient and population size is around unity, evolution by compensatory mutation is enhanced by gene duplication even without relaxation.     

Evolution of sex in RNA viruses

The distribution of deleterious mutations in a population of organisms is determined by the opposing effects of two forces, mutation pressure and selection. If mutation rates are high, the resulting mutation-selection balance can generate a substantial mutational load in the population. Sex can be advantageous to organisms experiencing high mutation rates because it can either buffer the mutation-selection balance from genetic drift, thus preventing any increases in the mutational load (Muller, 1964: Mut. Res. 1, 2), or decrease the mutational load by increasing the efficiency of selection (Crow, 1970: Biomathematics 1, 128). Muller's hypothesis assumes that deleterious mutations act independently, whereas Crow's hypothesis assumes that deleterious mutations interact synergistically, i.e., the acquisition of a deleterious mutation is proportionately more harmful to a genome with many mutations than it is to a genome with a few mutations. RNA viruses provide a test for these two hypotheses because they have extremely high mutation rates and appear to have evolved specific adaptations to reproduce sexually. Population genetic models for RNA viruses show that Muller's and Crow's hypotheses are also possible explanations for why sex is advantageous to these viruses. A re-analysis of published data on RNA viruses that are cultured by undiluted passage suggests that deleterious mutations in such viruses interact synergistically and that sex evolved there as a mechanism to reduce the mutational load.     

IS THE POPULATION SIZE OF A SPECIES RELEVANT TO ITS EVOLUTION?

Abstract This paper examines aspects of genetic draft, the stochastic force induced by substitutions at one locus on the dynamics of a closely linked locus. Of particular interest is the role of population size on genetic draft. Remarkably, the rate of substitution of weakly selected advantageous mutations decreases with increasing population size, whereas that for deleterious mutations increases with population size. This dependency on population size is the opposite of that for genetic drift. Moreover, these rates are only weakly dependent on population size, again contrary to the strong dependency of drift‐based dynamics. Four models of the strongly selected loci responsible for genetic draft are examined. Three of these exhibit a very weak dependency on population size, which implies that their induced effects will also be weakly dependent on population size. Together, these results suggest that population size and binomial sampling may not be relevant to a species' evolution. If this is the case, then a number of evolutionary conundrums are resolved.     

Evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus envelope gene is dominated by purifying selection

The evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) during chronic infection involves the rapid, continuous turnover of genetic diversity. However, the role of natural selection, relative to random genetic drift, in governing this process is unclear. We tested a stochastic model of genetic drift using partial envelope sequences sampled longitudinally in 28 infected children. In each case the Bayesian posterior (empirical) distribution of coalescent genealogies was estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Posterior predictive simulation was then used to generate a null distribution of genealogies assuming neutrality, with the null and empirical distributions compared using four genealogy-based summary statistics sensitive to nonneutral evolution. Because both null and empirical distributions were generated within a coalescent framework, we were able to explicitly account for the confounding influence of demography. From the distribution of corrected P-values across patients, we conclude that empirical genealogies are more asymmetric than expected if evolution is driven by mutation and genetic drift only, with an excess of low-frequency polymorphisms in the population. This indicates that although drift may still play an important role, natural selection has a strong influence on the evolution of HIV-1 envelope. A negative relationship between effective population size and substitution rate indicates that as the efficacy of selection increases, a smaller proportion of mutations approach fixation in the population. This suggests the presence of deleterious mutations. We therefore conclude that intrahost HIV-1 evolution in envelope is dominated by purifying selection against low-frequency deleterious mutations that do not reach fixation.     

Beyond simple adaptation: Incorporating other evolutionary processes and concepts into eco-evolutionary dynamics

Studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics have integrated evolution with ecological processes at multiple scales (populations, communities and ecosystems) and with multiple interspecific interactions (antagonistic, mutualistic and competitive). However, evolution has often been conceptualised as a simple process: short-term directional adaptation that increases population growth. Here we argue that diverse other evolutionary processes, well studied in population genetics and evolutionary ecology, should also be considered to explore the full spectrum of feedback between ecological and evolutionary processes. Relevant but underappreciated processes include (1) drift and mutation, (2) disruptive selection causing lineage diversification or speciation reversal and (3) evolution driven by relative fitness differences that may decrease population growth. Because eco-evolutionary dynamics have often been studied by population and community ecologists, it will be important to incorporate a variety of concepts in population genetics and evolutionary ecology to better understand and predict eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature.     

Rapidly evolving mitochondrial genome and directional selection in mitochondrial genes in the parasitic wasp nasonia (hymenoptera: pteromalidae)

We sequenced the nearly complete mtDNA of 3 species of parasitic wasps, Nasonia vitripennis (2 strains), Nasonia giraulti, and Nasonia longicornis, including all 13 protein-coding genes and the 2 rRNAs, and found unusual patterns of mitochondrial evolution. The Nasonia mtDNA has a unique gene order compared with other insect mtDNAs due to multiple rearrangements. The mtDNAs of these wasps also show nucleotide substitution rates over 30 times faster than nuclear protein-coding genes, indicating among the highest substitution rates found in animal mitochondria (normally <10 times faster). A McDonald and Kreitman test shows that the between-species frequency of fixed replacement sites relative to silent sites is significantly higher compared with within-species polymorphisms in 2 mitochondrial genes of Nasonia, atp6 and atp8, indicating directional selection. Consistent with this interpretation, the Ka/Ks (nonsynonymous/synonymous substitution rates) ratios are higher between species than within species. In contrast, cox1 shows a signature of purifying selection for amino acid sequence conservation, although rates of amino acid substitutions are still higher than for comparable insects. The mitochondrial-encoded polypeptides atp6 and atp8 both occur in F0F1ATP synthase of the electron transport chain. Because malfunction in this fundamental protein severely affects fitness, we suggest that the accelerated accumulation of replacements is due to beneficial mutations necessary to compensate mild-deleterious mutations fixed by random genetic drift or Wolbachia sweeps in the fast evolving mitochondria of Nasonia. We further propose that relatively high rates of amino acid substitution in some mitochondrial genes can be driven by a "Compensation-Draft Feedback"; increased fixation of mildly deleterious mutations results in selection for compensatory mutations, which lead to fixation of additional deleterious mutations in nonrecombining mitochondrial genomes, thus accelerating the process of amino acid substitutions.     

Sex: differences in mutation, recombination, selection, gene flow, and genetic drift

In many instances, there are large sex differences in mutation rates, recombination rates, selection, rates of gene flow, and genetic drift. Mutation rates are often higher in males, a difference that has been estimated both directly and indirectly. The higher male mutation rate appears related to the larger number of cell divisions in male lineages but mutation rates also appear gene- and organism-specific. When there is recombination in only one sex, it is always the homogametic sex. When there is recombination in both sexes, females often have higher recombination but there are many exceptions. There are a number of hypotheses to explain the sex differences in recombination. Sex-specific differences in selection may result in stable polymorphisms or for sex chromosomes, faster evolutionary change. In addition, sex-dependent selection may result in antagonistic pleiotropy or sexually antagonistic genes. There are many examples of sex-specific differences in gene flow (dispersal) and a number of adaptive explanations for these differences. The overall effective population size (genetic drift) is dominated by the lower sex-specific effective population size. The mean of the mutation, recombination, and gene flow rates over the two sexes can be used in a population genetics context unless there are sex-specific differences in selection or genetic drift. Sex-specific differences in these evolutionary factors appear to be unrelated to each other. The evolutionary explanations for sex-specific differences for each factor are multifaceted and, in addition, explanations may include chance, nonadaptive differences, or mechanistic, nonevolutionary factors.     

Distinguishing migration from isolation: a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

A Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating the relative effects of migration and isolation on genetic diversity in a pair of populations from DNA sequence data is developed and tested using simulations. The two populations are assumed to be descended from a panmictic ancestral population at some time in the past and may (or may not) after that be connected by migration. The use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo method allows the joint estimation of multiple demographic parameters in either a Bayesian or a likelihood framework. The parameters estimated include the migration rate for each population, the time since the two populations diverged from a common ancestral population, and the relative size of each of the two current populations and of the common ancestral population. The results show that even a single nonrecombining genetic locus can provide substantial power to test the hypothesis of no ongoing migration and/or to test models of symmetric migration between the two populations. The use of the method is illustrated in an application to mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a fish species: the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus).     

Evolution by small steps and rugged landscapes in the RNA virus phi6

Fisher's geometric model of adaptive evolution argues that adaptive evolution should generally result from the substitution of many mutations of small effect because advantageous mutations of small effect should be more common than those of large effect. However, evidence for both evolution by small steps and for Fisher's model has been mixed. Here we report supporting results from a new experimental test of the model. We subjected the bacteriophage phi6 to intensified genetic drift in small populations and caused viral fitness to decline through the accumulation of a deleterious mutation. We then propagated the mutated virus at a range of larger population sizes and allowed fitness to recover by natural selection. Although fitness declined in one large step, it was usually recovered in smaller steps. More importantly, step size during recovery was smaller with decreasing size of the recovery population. These results confirm Fisher's main prediction that advantageous mutations of small effect should be more common. We also show that the advantageous mutations of small effect are compensatory mutations whose advantage is conditional (epistatic) on the presence of the deleterious mutation, in which case the adaptive landscape of phi6 is likely to be very rugged.     

Robust estimation of local genetic ancestry in admixed populations using a nonparametric bayesian approach

We present a new haplotype-based approach for inferring local genetic ancestry of individuals in an admixed population. Most existing approaches for local ancestry estimation ignore the latent genetic relatedness between ancestral populations and treat them as independent. In this article, we exploit such information by building an inheritance model that describes both the ancestral populations and the admixed population jointly in a unified framework. Based on an assumption that the common hypothetical founder haplotypes give rise to both the ancestral and the admixed population haplotypes, we employ an infinite hidden Markov model to characterize each ancestral population and further extend it to generate the admixed population. Through an effective utilization of the population structural information under a principled nonparametric Bayesian framework, the resulting model is significantly less sensitive to the choice and the amount of training data for ancestral populations than state-of-the-art algorithms. We also improve the robustness under deviation from common modeling assumptions by incorporating population-specific scale parameters that allow variable recombination rates in different populations. Our method is applicable to an admixed population from an arbitrary number of ancestral populations and also performs competitively in terms of spurious ancestry proportions under a general multiway admixture assumption. We validate the proposed method by simulation under various admixing scenarios and present empirical analysis results from a worldwide-distributed dataset from the Human Genome Diversity Project.     

Dynamics of inbreeding depression due to deleterious mutations in small populations: mutation parameters and inbreeding rate

A multilocus stochastic model is developed to simulate the dynamics of mutational load in small populations of various sizes. Old mutations sampled from a large ancestral population at mutation-selection balance and new mutations arising each generation are considered jointly, using biologically plausible lethal and deleterious mutation parameters. The results show that inbreeding depression and the number of lethal equivalents due to partially recessive mutations can be partly purged from the population by inbreeding, and that this purging mainly involves lethals or detrimentals of large effect. However, fitness decreases continuously with inbreeding, due to increased fixation and homozygosity of mildly deleterious mutants, resulting in extinctions of very small populations with low reproductive rates. No optimum inbreeding rate or population size exists for purging with respect to fitness (viability) changes, but there is an optimum inbreeding rate at a given final level of inbreeding for reducing inbreeding depression or the number of lethal equivalents. The interaction between selection against partially recessive mutations and genetic drift in small populations also influences the rate of decay of neutral variation. Weak selection against mutants relative to genetic drift results in apparent overdominance and thus an increase in effective size (Ne) at neutral loci, and strong selection relative to drift leads to a decrease in Ne due to the increased variance in family size. The simulation results and their implications are discussed in the context of biological conservation and tests for purging.     

Impact of ancestral populations on postzygotic isolation in allopatric speciation

Postzygotic isolation evolves due to an accumulation of substitutions (potentially deleterious alleles in hybrids) in populations that have become geographically isolated. These potentially deleterious alleles might also be maintained in ancestral populations before geographic isolation. We used an individual-based model to examine the effect of the genetic state of an ancestral population on the evolution of postzygotic isolation after geographic isolation of a population. The results showed that the number of loci at which degenerative alleles are fixed in an ancestral population at equilibrium significantly affects the evolutionary rates of postzygotic isolation between descendant allopatric populations. Our results suggest that: (1) a severe decrease in population size (e.g., less than ten individuals) is not necessary for the rapid evolution of postzygotic isolation (e.g., <10,000 generation); (2) rapid speciation can occur when there is a large difference in the equilibrium number of accumulated degenerative alleles between ancestral and descendant populations; and (3) in an ancestral population maintained at a small effective population size for a long period of time, postzygotic isolation rarely evolves if back mutations that restore the function of degenerative alleles are limited.     

Genetic drift in an infinite population. The pseudohitchhiking model

Selected substitutions at one locus can induce stochastic dynamics that resemble genetic drift at a closely linked neutral locus. The pseudohitchhiking model is a one-locus model that approximates these effects and can be used to describe the major consequences of linked selection. As the changes in neutral allele frequencies when hitchhiking are rapid, diffusion theory is not appropriate for studying neutral dynamics. A stationary distribution and some results on substitution processes are presented that use the theory of continuous-time Markov processes with discontinuous sample paths. The coalescent of the pseudohitchhiking model is shown to have a random number of branches at each node, which leads to a frequency spectrum that is different from that of the equilibrium neutral model. If genetic draft, the name given to these induced stochastic effects, is a more important stochastic force than genetic drift, then a number of paradoxes that have plagued population genetics disappear.     

THE INEVITABILITY OF UNCONDITIONALLY DELETERIOUS SUBSTITUTIONS DURING ADAPTATION

Studies on the genetics of adaptation from new mutations typically neglect the possibility that a deleterious mutation might fix. Nonetheless, here we show that, in many regimes, the first mutation to fix is most often deleterious, even when fitness is expected to increase in the long term. In particular, we prove that this phenomenon occurs under weak mutation for any house‐of‐cards model with an equilibrium distribution. We find that the same qualitative results hold under Fisher's geometric model. We also provide a simple intuition for the surprising prevalence of unconditionally deleterious substitutions during early adaptation. Importantly, the phenomenon we describe occurs on fitness landscapes without any local maxima and is therefore distinct from “valley crossing.” Our results imply that the common practice of ignoring deleterious substitutions leads to qualitatively incorrect predictions in many regimes. Our results also have implications for the substitution process at equilibrium and for the response to a sudden decrease in population size.     

The amino-acid mutational spectrum of human genetic disease

Background  

Nonsynonymous mutations in the coding regions of human genes are responsible for phenotypic differences between humans and for susceptibility to genetic disease. Computational methods were recently used to predict deleterious effects of nonsynonymous human mutations and polymorphisms. Here we focus on understanding the amino-acid mutation spectrum of human genetic disease. We compare the disease spectrum to the spectra of mutual amino-acid mutation frequencies, non-disease polymorphisms in human genes, and substitutions fixed between species.     

MULLER'S RATCHET AND THE ADVANTAGE OF SEX IN THE RNA VIRUS ϟ6

Population genetic models have shown that if genetic drift is strong and the rate of deleterious mutations is high, Muller's ratchet provides an advantage to sex. A previous study tested for the possibility that Muller's ratchet could work in RNA viruses, which are known to have very high mutation rates. Muller's ratchet was found to operate when lineages of the RNA bacteriophage φ6 were subjected to intensified genetic drift. The study did not determine, however, whether sex is advantageous to these viruses. We have examined whether sex can reverse the effects of Muller's ratchet by crossing nine φ6 lineages that were subjected to the ratchet in Chao's study. To determine whether there was a net advantage to sex, we analyzed the effect of crossing three lineages to all other lineages. Crossing increased significantly the fitness of two lineages, but it did not significantly affect the fitness of the third lineage. We argue that the minimal advantage of sex to these nine lineages is small, but positive. These results provide a possible scenario for the evolution of sex in an RNA phage like φ6.     

The neutral theory in an infinite population

Selective substitutions at one locus induce stochastic dynamics at a linked neutral locus that resemble genetic drift even when the population size is infinite. This new stochastic force, which is called genetic draft, causes genetic variation at the neutral locus to decrease with population size and the rate of deleterious substitution to increase with population size. The fact that heterozygosities in natural populations are only weakly dependent on population size suggests that genetic draft may be a much more important stochastic force than genetic drift in natural populations. Some of the mathematical properties of genetic draft are explored.     

Fixation probability of rare nonmutator and evolution of mutation rates

Although mutations drive the evolutionary process, the rates at which the mutations occur are themselves subject to evolutionary forces. Our purpose here is to understand the role of selection and random genetic drift in the evolution of mutation rates, and we address this question in asexual populations at mutation‐selection equilibrium neglecting selective sweeps. Using a multitype branching process, we calculate the fixation probability of a rare nonmutator in a large asexual population of mutators and find that a nonmutator is more likely to fix when the deleterious mutation rate of the mutator population is high. Compensatory mutations in the mutator population are found to decrease the fixation probability of a nonmutator when the selection coefficient is large. But, surprisingly, the fixation probability changes nonmonotonically with increasing compensatory mutation rate when the selection is mild. Using these results for the fixation probability and a drift‐barrier argument, we find a novel relationship between the mutation rates and the population size. We also discuss the time to fix the nonmutator in an adapted population of asexual mutators, and compare our results with experiments.