Effects of tick population dynamics and host densities on the persistence of tick-borne infections

The transmission and the persistence of tick-borne infections are strongly influenced by the densities and the structure of host populations. By extending previous models and analysis, in this paper we analyse how the persistence of ticks and pathogens, is affected by the dynamics of tick populations, and by their host densities. The effect of host densities on infection persistence is explored through the analysis and simulation of a series of models that include different assumptions on tick-host dynamics and consider different routes of infection transmission. Ticks are assumed to feed on two types of host species which vary in their reservoir competence. Too low densities of competent hosts (i.e., hosts where transmission can occur) do not sustain the infection cycle, while too high densities of incompetent hosts may dilute the competent hosts so much to make infection persistence impossible. A dilution effect may occur also for competent hosts as a consequence of reduced tick to host ratio; this is possible only if the regulation of tick populations is such that tick density does not increase linearly with host densities.     

Persistence of Pathogens with Short Infectious Periods in Seasonal Tick Populations: The Relative Importance of Three Transmission Routes

Background

The flaviviruses causing tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) persist at low but consistent levels in tick populations, despite short infectious periods in their mammalian hosts and transmission periods constrained by distinctly seasonal tick life cycles. In addition to systemic and vertical transmission, cofeeding transmission has been proposed as an important route for the persistence of TBE-causing viruses. Because cofeeding transmission requires ticks to feed simultaneously, the timing of tick activity may be critical to pathogen persistence. Existing models of tick-borne diseases do not incorporate all transmission routes and tick seasonality. Our aim is to evaluate the influence of seasonality on the relative importance of different transmission routes by using a comprehensive mathematical model.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a stage-structured population model that includes tick seasonality and evaluated the relative importance of the transmission routes for pathogens with short infectious periods, in particular Powassan virus (POWV) and the related “deer tick virus,” emergent encephalitis-causing flaviviruses in North America. We used the next generation matrix method to calculate the basic reproductive ratio and performed elasticity analyses. We confirmed that cofeeding transmission is critically important for such pathogens to persist in seasonal tick populations over the reasonable range of parameter values. At higher but still plausible rates of vertical transmission, our model suggests that vertical transmission can strongly enhance pathogen prevalence when it operates in combination with cofeeding transmission.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results demonstrate that the consistent prevalence of POWV observed in tick populations could be maintained by a combination of low vertical, intermediate cofeeding and high systemic transmission rates. When vertical transmission is weak, nymphal ticks support integral parts of the transmission cycle that are critical for maintaining the pathogen. We also extended the model to pathogens that cause chronic infections in hosts and found that cofeeding transmission could contribute to elevating prevalence even in these systems. Therefore, the common assumption that cofeeding transmission is not relevant in models of chronic host infection, such as Lyme disease, could lead to underestimating pathogen prevalence.     

Thresholds for disease persistence in models for tick-borne infections including non-viraemic transmission,extended feeding and tick aggregation

Lyme disease and Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) are two emergent tick-borne diseases transmitted by the widely distributed European tick Ixodes ricinus. The life cycle of the vector and the number of hosts involved requires the development of complex models which consider different routes of pathogen transmission including those occurring between ticks that co-feed on the same host. Hence, we consider here a general model for tick-borne infections. We assumed ticks feed on two types of host species, one competent for viraemic transmission of infection, the second incompetent but included a third transmission route through non-viraemic transmission between ticks co-feeding on the same host. Since a blood meal lasts for several days these routes could lead to interesting nonlinearities in transmission rates, which may have important effects.We derive an explicit formula for the threshold for disease persistence in the case of viraemic transmission, also for the case of viraemic and non-viraemic transmission. From this formula, the effect of parameters on the persistence of infection can be determined. When only viraemic transmission occurs, we confirm that, while the density of the competent host has always a positive effect on infection persistence, the density of the incompetent host may have either a positive effect, by amplifying tick population, or a negative ("dilution") effect, by wasting tick bites on an incompetent host. With non-viraemic transmission, the "dilution" effect becomes less relevant. On the other hand, if the nonlinearity due to extended feeding is included, the dilution effect always occurs, but often at unrealistically high host densities. Finally, we incorporated the effects of tick aggregation on the hosts and correlation of tick stages and found that both had an important effect on infection persistence, if non-viraemic transmission occurred.     

Effect of host populations on the intensity of ticks and the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens: how to interpret the results of deer exclosure experiments

Deer are important blood hosts for feeding Ixodes ricinus ticks but they do not support transmission of many tick-borne pathogens, so acting as dead-end transmission hosts. Mathematical models show their role as tick amplifiers, but also suggest that they dilute pathogen transmission, thus reducing infection prevalence. Empirical evidence for this is conflicting: experimental plots with deer removal (i.e. deer exclosures) show that the effect depends on the size of the exclosure. Here we present simulations of dynamic models that take into account different tick stages, and several host species (e.g. rodents) that may move to and from deer exclosures; models were calibrated with respect to Ixodes ricinus ticks and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Trentino (northern Italy). Results show that in small exclosures, the density of rodent-feeding ticks may be higher inside than outside, whereas in large exclosures, a reduction of such tick density may be reached. Similarly, TBE prevalence in rodents decreases in large exclosures and may be slightly higher in small exclosures than outside them. The density of infected questing nymphs inside small exclosures can be much higher, in our numerical example almost twice as large as that outside, leading to potential TBE infection risk hotspots.     

Ticks need not bite their red grouse hosts to infect them with louping ill virus

For pathogens transmitted by biting vectors, one of the fundamental assumptions is often that vector bites are the sole or main route of host infection. Here, we demonstrate experimentally a transmission route whereby hosts (red grouse, Lagopus lagopus scoticus) became infected with a member of the tick-borne encephalitis virus complex, louping ill virus, after eating the infected tick vector. Furthermore, we estimated from field observations that this mode of infection could account for 73-98% of all virus infections in wild red grouse in their first season. This has potential implications for the understanding of other biting vector-borne pathogens where hosts may ingest vectors through foraging or grooming.     

Elasticity analysis in epidemiology: an application to tick-borne infections

The application of projection matrices in population biology to plant and animal populations has a parallel in infectious disease ecology when next-generation matrices (NGMs) are used to characterize growth in numbers of infected hosts ( R ₀). The NGM is appropriate for multi-host pathogens, where each matrix element represents the number of cases of one type of host arising from a single infected individual of another type. For projection matrices, calculations of the sensitivity and elasticity of the population growth rate to changes in the matrix elements has generated insight into plant and animal populations. These same perturbation analyses can be used for infectious disease systems. To illustrate this in detail we parameterized an NGM for seven tick-borne zoonoses and compared them in terms of the contributions to R ₀ from three different routes of transmission between ticks, and between ticks and vertebrate hosts. The definition of host type may be the species of the host or the route of infection, or, as was the case for the set of tick-borne pathogens, a combination of species and the life stage at infection. This freedom means that there is a broad range of disease systems and questions for which the methodology is appropriate.     

Main features of natural focality of ixodid tick-borne borreliosis in Russia

In a general form the "key" data on natural focality of ixodid tick-borne borrelioses and ecology of their agents--B. burgdorferi s. 1. in Russia, which have been accumulated by now, are presented. Vectors and reservoir hosts of different species of Borrelia, as well as a landscape preference of natural foci and ecological factors, determining risk of human infection, are characterized.     

Tick-borne infections of animals and humans: a common ground

A wide variety of pathogens is transmitted from ticks to vertebrates including viruses, bacteria, protozoa and helminths, of which most have a life cycle that requires passage through the vertebrate host. Tick-borne infections of humans, farm and companion animals are essentially associated with wildlife animal reservoirs. While some flying insect-borne diseases of humans such as malaria, filariasis and Kala Azar caused by Leishmania donovani target people as their main host, major tick-borne infections of humans, although potentially causing disease in large numbers of individuals, are typically an infringement of a circulation between wildlife animal reservoirs and tick vectors. While new tick-borne infectious agents are frequently recognised, emerging agents of human tick-borne infections were probably circulating among wildlife animal and tick populations long before being recognised as clinical causes of human disease as has been shown for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato. Co-infection with more than one tick-borne infection is common and can enhance pathogenic processes and augment disease severity as found in B. burgdorferi and Anaplasma phagocytophilum co-infection. The role of wild animal reservoirs in co-infection of human hosts appears to be central, further linking human and animal tick-borne infections. Although transmission of most tick-borne infections is through the tick saliva, additional routes of transmission, shown mostly in animals, include infection by oral uptake of infected ticks, by carnivorism, animal bites and transplacentally. Additionally, artificial infection via blood transfusion is a growing threat in both human and veterinary medicine. Due to the close association between human and animal tick-borne infections, control programs for these diseases require integration of data from veterinary and human reporting systems, surveillance in wildlife and tick populations, and combined teams of experts from several scientific disciplines such as entomology, epidemiology, medicine, public health and veterinary medicine.     

Correlation of TBE Incidence with Red Deer and Roe Deer Abundance in Slovenia

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a virus infection which sometimes causes human disease. The TBE virus is found in ticks and certain vertebrate tick hosts in restricted endemic localities termed TBE foci. The formation of natural foci is a combination of several factors: the vectors, a suitable and numerous enough number of hosts and in a habitat with suitable vegetation and climate. The present study investigated the influence of deer on the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis. We were able to obtain data from deer culls. Using this data, the abundance of deer was estimated and temporal and spatial analysis was performed. The abundance of deer has increased in the past decades, as well as the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis. Temporal analysis confirmed a correlation between red deer abundance and tick-borne encephalitis occurrence. Additionally, spatial analysis established, that in areas with high incidence of tick-borne encephalitis red deer density is higher, compared to areas with no or few human cases of tick-borne encephalitis. However, such correlation could not be confirmed between roe deer density and the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis. This is presumably due to roe deer density being above a certain threshold so that availability of tick reproduction hosts has no apparent effect on ticks'' host finding and consequently may not be possible to correlate with incidence of human TBE.     

Using genomic approaches to unravel livestock (host)-tick-pathogen interactions

Ticks and tick-borne diseases are a major constraint on livestock farming in many developing countries, which has a huge impact on their economies. Genomic information is becoming more abundant for many of the species involved, which if exploited successfully could be used to develop new control strategies. Here, we review the genomic resources that are now available and discuss how this information is currently being harnessed or can be used in the future to explore the complex interplay that occurs between livestock hosts, tick vectors and tick-borne pathogens.     

Empirical evidence for key hosts in persistence of a tick-borne disease

An important epidemiological consequence of aggregated host-parasite associations occurs when parasites are vectors of pathogens. Those hosts that attract many vectors will tend to be the focus of transmission. But to what extent, and can we identify characteristics of these key hosts? We investigated these questions with respect to the host-tick relationship of the yellow-necked mouse, Apodemus flavicollis, a critical host in the maintenance of the zoonotic disease, tick-borne encephalitis. Transmission of the virus occurs when ticks feed in a 'co-feeding' aggregation. Thus, the number and frequency of co-feeding groups provides an estimate of the potential rate of virus transmission. We recorded the spatio-temporal variations in co-feeding on a population of rodents in conjunction with recording individual host characteristics. Using Lorenz curves, we revealed conformation of tick-borne encephalitis transmission potential to the 20/80 Rule, where the 20% of hosts most infested with ticks were accountable for 80% of transmission potential. Hosts in the transmission cohort were identified as the sexually mature males of high body mass. Therefore control efforts targeted at this group would substantially reduce transmission potential compared to non-targeted control of the population, which resulted in a linear reduction in transmission potential. Focusing on the 'wrong' functional group would have little impact upon transmission potential until a considerable proportion of the population had been subject to control. However, individuals can change their functional status over time making it difficult to predict the contribution of these individuals to future transmission.     

Dynamic Changes in Lyme Disease Spirochetes During Transmission by Nymphal Ticks

Ticks are not crawling needles, merely delivering infectious agents to vertebrate hosts. A sophisticated interplay takes place between ticks, pathogens, and vertebrate hosts. The relationship between Ixodes ticks and the Lyme disease spirochetes they transmit involves subtle changes in spirochete populations that maximize their chances of being transmitted. An understanding of this complex interplay will, hopefully, allow the development of new tools to block transmission of tick-borne agents. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Competition between strains of Borrelia afzelii in the host tissues and consequences for transmission to ticks

Pathogen species often consist of genetically distinct strains, which can establish mixed infections or coinfections in the host. In coinfections, interactions between pathogen strains can have important consequences for their transmission success. We used the tick-borne bacterium Borrelia afzelii, which is the most common cause of Lyme disease in Europe, as a model multi-strain pathogen to investigate the relationship between coinfection, competition between strains, and strain-specific transmission success. Mus musculus mice were infected with one or two strains of B. afzelii, strain transmission success was measured by feeding ticks on mice, and the distribution of each strain in six different mouse organs and the ticks was measured using qPCR. Coinfection and competition reduced the tissue infection prevalence of both strains and changed their bacterial abundance in some tissues. Coinfection and competition also reduced the transmission success of the B. afzelii strains from the infected hosts to feeding ticks. The ability of the B. afzelii strains to establish infection in the host tissues was strongly correlated with their transmission success to the tick vector. Our study demonstrates that coinfection and competition between pathogen strains inside the host tissues can have major consequences for their transmission success.Subject terms: Microbial ecology, Bacteria     

Identification of potential hosts and vectors of scrub typhus and tick-borne spotted fever group rickettsiae in eastern Taiwan

Scrub typhus and tick-borne spotted fever group (SFG) rickettsioses are transmitted by chiggers (larval trombiculid mites) and hard ticks, respectively. We assessed exposure to these disease vectors by extensively sampling both chiggers and ticks and their small mammal hosts in eastern Taiwan during 2007 and 2008. The striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius Pallas (Rodentia: Muridae) was the most common of the small mammals (36.1% of 1393 captures) and presented the highest rate of infestation with both chiggers (47.8% of 110 760) and ticks (78.1% of 1431). Leptotrombidium imphalum Vercammen-Grandjean & Langston (Trombidiformes: Trombiculidae) and immature Rhipicephalus haemaphysaloides Supino (Ixodida: Ixodidae) were the most abundant chiggers (84.5%) and ticks (>99%) identified, respectively. Immunofluorescent antibody assay revealed high seropositive rates of rodents against Orientia tsutsugamushi Hyashi (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae), the aetiological agent of scrub typhus (70.0% of 437 rodents), and tick-borne SFG rickettsiae (91.9% of 418 rodents). The current study represents a first step towards elucidating the potential hosts and vectors in the enzootic transmission of O. tsutsugamushi and tick-borne SFG rickettsiae in Taiwan. Further studies should focus on characterizing pathogens in L. imphalum and R. haemaphysaloides, as well as the proclivity of both vectors to humans. Uncovering the main hosts of adult ticks is also critical for the prevention of SFG rickettsial infections.     

The Lyme Disease Pathogen Has No Effect on the Survival of Its Rodent Reservoir Host

Zoonotic pathogens that cause devastating morbidity and mortality in humans may be relatively harmless in their natural reservoir hosts. The tick-borne bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi causes Lyme disease in humans but few studies have investigated whether this pathogen reduces the fitness of its reservoir hosts under natural conditions. We analyzed four years of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data on a population of white-footed mice, Peromyscus leucopus, to test whether B. burgdorferi and its tick vector affect the survival of this important reservoir host. We used a multi-state CMR approach to model mouse survival and mouse infection rates as a function of a variety of ecologically relevant explanatory factors. We found no effect of B. burgdorferi infection or tick burden on the survival of P. leucopus. Our estimates of the probability of infection varied by an order of magnitude (0.051 to 0.535) and were consistent with our understanding of Lyme disease in the Northeastern United States. B. burgdorferi establishes a chronic avirulent infection in their rodent reservoir hosts because this pathogen depends on rodent mobility to achieve transmission to its sedentary tick vector. The estimates of B. burgdorferi infection risk will facilitate future theoretical studies on the epidemiology of Lyme disease.     

Hard Tick Factors Implicated in Pathogen Transmission

Ticks are the most common arthropod vector, after mosquitoes, and are capable of transmitting the greatest variety of pathogens. For both humans and animals, the worldwide emergence or re-emergence of tick-borne disease is becoming increasingly problematic. Despite being such an important issue, our knowledge of pathogen transmission by ticks is incomplete. Several recent studies, reviewed here, have reported that the expression of some tick factors can be modulated in response to pathogen infection, and that some of these factors can impact on the pathogenic life cycle. Delineating the specific tick factors required for tick-borne pathogen transmission should lead to new strategies in the disruption of pathogen life cycles to combat emerging tick-borne disease.     

Attachment site selection of ticks on roe deer, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Capreolus capreolus</Emphasis>

The spatio-temporal attachment site patterns of ticks feeding on their hosts can be of significance if co-feeding transmission (i.e. from tick to tick without a systemic infection of the host) of pathogens affects the persistence of a given disease. Using tick infestation data on roe deer, we analysed preferred attachment sites and niche width of Ixodes ticks (larvae, nymphs, males, females) and investigated the degree of inter- and intrastadial aggregation. The different development stages showed rather consistent attachment site patterns and relative narrow feeding site niches. Larvae were mostly found on the head and on the front legs of roe deer, nymphs reached highest densities on the head and highest adult densities were found on the neck of roe deer. The tick stages feeding (larvae, nymphs, females) on roe deer showed high degrees of intrastadial spatial aggregation, whereas males did not. Male ticks showed large feeding site overlap with female ticks. Feeding site overlap between larval-female and larval-nymphal ticks did occur especially during the months May–August on the head and front legs of roe deer and might allow pathogen transmission via co-feeding. Tick density, niche width and niche overlap on roe deer are mainly affected by seasonality, reflecting seasonal activity and abundance patterns of ticks. Since different tick development stages occur spatially and temporally clustered on roe deer, transmission experiments of tick-borne pathogens are urgently needed.     

Evaluation in the greenhouse of the effects of fungicides on the development of mycorrhiza on leek and wheat

Summary The effect of 11 fungicides, viz Aliette, Bayleton 5, Benlate, Dithane M45, Euparene, Karathane, Orthocide 83RP, Pelt 44, Tilt C, Tilt 125 and Tripomol 80, on vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis in leek and wheat growing in a calcined clay was studied in the greenhouse at four concentrations applied to the foliage. Fungicides had minimal effects when applied to leek or wheat plants with well-established mycorrhiza. Mycorrhizal infection was not drastically affected by any fungicide at any application level. However, mycorrhizal infection of leek plants was reduced by systemic fungicides, and that of wheat by non-systemic fungicides. Aliette was the only fungicide that stimulated mycorrhizal development.     

Large scale systemic control short-circuits pathogen transmission by interrupting the sand rat (Psammomys obesus)-to-sand fly (Phlebotomus papatasi) Leishmania major transmission cycle

Systemic control uses the vertebrate hosts of zoonotic pathogens as “Trojan horses,” killing blood-feeding female vectors and short-circuiting host-to-vector pathogen transmission. Previous studies focused only on the effect of systemic control on vector abundance at small spatial scales. None were conducted at a spatial scale relevant for vector control and none on the effect of systemic control on pathogen transmission rates. We tested the application of systemic control, using Fipronil-impregnated rodent baits, in reducing Leishmania major (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae; Yakimoff & Schokhor, 1914) infection levels within the vector, Phlebotomus papatasi (Diptera: Psychodidae; Scopoli, 1786) population, at the town-scale. We provided Fipronil-impregnated food-baits to all Psammomys obesus (Mammalia:Muridae; Cretzschmar, 1828), the main L. major reservoir, burrows along the southern perimeter of the town of Yeruham, Israel, and compared sand fly abundance and infection levels with a non-treated control area. We found a significant and substantial treatment effect on L. major infection levels in the female sand fly population. Sand fly abundance was not affected. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, the potential of systemic control in reducing pathogen transmission rates at a large, epidemiologically relevant, spatial scale.     

Accelerated phenology of blacklegged ticks under climate warming

The phenology of tick emergence has important implications for the transmission of tick-borne pathogens. A long lag between the emergence of tick nymphs in spring and larvae in summer should increase transmission of persistent pathogens by allowing infected nymphs to inoculate the population of naive hosts that can subsequently transmit the pathogen to larvae to complete the transmission cycle. In contrast, greater synchrony between nymphs and larvae should facilitate transmission of pathogens that do not produce long-lasting infections in hosts. Here, we use 19 years of data on blacklegged ticks attached to small-mammal hosts to quantify the relationship between climate warming and tick phenology. Warmer years through May and August were associated with a nearly three-week advance in the phenology of nymphal and larval ticks relative to colder years, with little evidence of increased synchrony. Warmer Octobers were associated with fewer larvae feeding concurrently with nymphs during the following spring. Projected warming by the 2050s is expected to advance the timing of average nymph and larva activity by 8–11 and 10–14 days, respectively. If these trends continue, climate warming should maintain or increase transmission of persistent pathogens, while it might inhibit pathogens that do not produce long-lasting infections.