Evidence for Patterns of Selective Urban Migration in the Greater Indus Valley (2600-1900 BC): A Lead and Strontium Isotope Mortuary Analysis

Just as modern nation-states struggle to manage the cultural and economic impacts of migration, ancient civilizations dealt with similar external pressures and set policies to regulate people’s movements. In one of the earliest urban societies, the Indus Civilization, mechanisms linking city populations to hinterland groups remain enigmatic in the absence of written documents. However, isotopic data from human tooth enamel associated with Harappa Phase (2600-1900 BC) cemetery burials at Harappa (Pakistan) and Farmana (India) provide individual biogeochemical life histories of migration. Strontium and lead isotope ratios allow us to reinterpret the Indus tradition of cemetery inhumation as part of a specific and highly regulated institution of migration. Intra-individual isotopic shifts are consistent with immigration from resource-rich hinterlands during childhood. Furthermore, mortuary populations formed over hundreds of years and composed almost entirely of first-generation immigrants suggest that inhumation was the final step in a process linking certain urban Indus communities to diverse hinterland groups. Additional multi disciplinary analyses are warranted to confirm inferred patterns of Indus mobility, but the available isotopic data suggest that efforts to classify and regulate human movement in the ancient Indus region likely helped structure socioeconomic integration across an ethnically diverse landscape.     

Dental paleopathology and agricultural intensification in south Asia: new evidence from Bronze Age Harappa.

Patterns of dental disease among Bronze Age people of the Indus Valley Civilization are currently based on early and incomplete reports by non-specialists. This deficiency precludes accurate diachronic analysis of dental disease and its relationship with increasing agriculturalism in the Indian subcontinent. The objective of this paper is to document prevalence of dental disease at Harappa (2500-2000 B.C.), Punjab Province, Pakistan, comparatively evaluate the Harappan dental pathology profile, and use these data to assess theories regarding the dental health consequences of increasingly intensive agricultural dependence. Pathological conditions of the dentition included in the study are abscesses, ante-mortem tooth loss (AMTL), calculus, caries, hypoplasia, hypercementosis, pulp chamber exposure, and alveolar resorption. The Harappan dentition exhibits a dental pathology profile typical of a population whose subsistence base is agriculture. Dental caries at Harappa are present in 6.8% (n = 751) of the teeth and 43.6% (n = 39) of the more completely preserved dental specimens. The use of a caries correction factor is recommended to permit an estimate of caries induced AMTL in calculating the caries prevalence. All dental lesions are present at higher rates in this Harappan study sample than were reported in previous investigations, and important differences in prevalence of dental disease occur between the genders. Prevalence of dental disease increases in the greater Indus Valley as subsistence becomes more intensive and as food preparation and storage technology becomes more efficient.     

A continent under stress: interactions, feedbacks and risks associated with impact of modified land cover on Australia's climate

Global climate change is the major and most urgent global environmental issue. Australia is already experiencing climate change as evidenced by higher temperatures and more frequent and severe droughts. These impacts are compounded by increasing land use pressures on natural resources and native ecosystems. This paper provides a synthesis of the interactions, feedbacks and risks of natural climate variability, climate change and land use/land cover change (LUCC) impacting on the Australian continent and how they vary regionally. We review evidence of climate change and underlying processes resulting from interactions between global warming caused by increased concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases and modification of the land surface. The consequences of ignoring the effect of LUCC on current and future droughts in Australia could have catastrophic consequences for the nation's environment, economy and communities. We highlight the need for more integrated, long-term and adaptive policies and regional natural resource management strategies that restore the beneficial feedbacks between native vegetation cover and local-regional climate, to help ameliorate the impact of global warming.     

Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns

Shifts in species' phenology in response to climate change have wide-ranging consequences for ecological systems. However, significant variability in species' responses, together with limited data, frustrates efforts to forecast the consequences of ongoing phenological changes. Herein, we use a case study of three North American plant communities to explore the implications of variability across levels of organisation (within and among species, and among communities) for forecasting responses to climate change. We show how despite significant variation among species in sensitivities to climate, comparable patterns emerge at the community level once regional climate drivers are accounted for. However, communities differ with respect to projected patterns of divergence and overlap among their species' phenological distributions in response to climate change. These analyses and a review of hypotheses suggest how explicit consideration of spatial scale and levels of biological organisation may help to understand and forecast phenological responses to climate change.     

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average latitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northern distributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts.     

Birth is but our death begun: A bioarchaeological assessment of skeletal emaciation in immature human skeletons in the context of environmental,social, and subsistence transition

The second millennium BC was a period of significant social and environmental changes in prehistoric India. After the disintegration of the Indus civilization, in a phase known as the Early Jorwe (1400–1000 BC), hundreds of agrarian villages flourished in the Deccan region of west-central India. Environmental degradation, combined with unsustainable agricultural practices, contributed to the abandonment of many communities around 1000 BC. Inamgaon was one of a handful of villages to persist into the Late Jorwe phase (1000–700 BC), wherein reliance on dry-plough agricultural production declined. Previous research demonstrated a significant decline in body size (stature and body mass index) through time, which is often used to infer increased levels of biocultural stress in bioarchaeology. This article assesses evidence for growth disruption in the immature human skeletal remains from Inamgaon by correlating measures of whole bone morphology with midshaft femur compact bone geometry and histology. Growth derangement is observable in immature archaeological femora as an alteration in the expected amount and distribution of bone mass and porosity in the midshaft cross-section. Cross-section shape matched expectations for older infants with the acquisition of bipedal locomotion. These results support the hypothesis that small body size was related to disruptions in homeostasis and high levels of biocultural stress in the Late Jorwe at Inamgaon. Further, the combined use of geometric properties and histological details provides a method for teasing apart the complex interactions among activity and “health,” demonstrating how biocultural stressors affect the acquisition and quality of bone mass. Am J Phys Anthropol 155:243–259, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Early Neolithic agriculture in Ambrona, Provincia Soria, central Spain

The early Neolithic sites of La Lámpara and La Revilla del Campo in the Meseta Norte (Northern Meseta) plateau in central Spain produced evidence for early agriculture from the last third of the 6th millennium B.C. The hulled wheats Triticum monococcum (einkorn) and T. dicoccum (emmer) were identified from carbonised plant remains as well as from imprints in pottery and daub. Single finds of charred remains of Hordeum vulgare (barley), Papaver somniferum/setigerum (poppy) and Linum usitatissimum (linseed) indicated other cultivated crops. The wild plants mainly indicated arable weeds, partly from less fertile soils, and garrigue vegetation from poor pastures. The spectrum of crops from the Ambrona sites was compared to other inner Iberian sites as well as to Mediterranean sites. Sediment samples as well as mineral crusts from graves were analysed from the Neolithic tumulus of La Peña de la Abuela. Its diachronic collective burials had originated from a period of time during the first third of the 4th millennium B.C. Probably no crops, but many green vegetative parts of pine, oak, and juniper had been used as funeral gifts. Oak cupula development indicated early summer activities in the grave-mound. Wickerwork made of willow was used for embedding the dead bodies.     

A decade of climate change experiments on marine organisms: procedures,patterns and problems

The first decade of the new millennium saw a flurry of experiments to establish a mechanistic understanding of how climate change might transform the global biota, including marine organisms. However, the biophysical properties of the marine environment impose challenges to experiments, which can weaken their inference space. To facilitate strengthening the experimental evidence for possible ecological consequences of climate change, we reviewed the physical, biological and procedural scope of 110 marine climate change experiments published between 2000 and 2009. We found that 65% of these experiments only tested a single climate change factor (warming or acidification), 54% targeted temperate organisms, 58% were restricted to a single species and 73% to benthic invertebrates. In addition, 49% of the reviewed experiments had issues with the experimental design, principally related to replication of the main test‐factors (temperature or pH), and only 11% included field assessments of processes or associated patterns. Guiding future research by this inventory of current strengths and weaknesses will expand the overall inference space of marine climate change experiments. Specifically, increased effort is required in five areas: (i) the combined effects of concurrent climate and non‐climate stressors; (ii) responses of a broader range of species, particularly from tropical and polar regions as well as primary producers, pelagic invertebrates, and fish; (iii) species interactions and responses of species assemblages, (iv) reducing pseudo‐replication in controlled experiments; and (v) increasing realism in experiments through broad‐scale observations and field experiments. Attention in these areas will improve the generality and accuracy of our understanding of climate change as a driver of biological change in marine ecosystems.     

Ecological impact assessment of climate change and habitat loss on wetland vertebrate assemblages of the Great Barrier Reef catchment and the influence of survey bias

Wetlands are among the most vulnerable ecosystems, stressed by habitat loss and degradation from expanding and intensifying agricultural and urban areas. Climate change will exacerbate the impacts of habitat loss by altering temperature and rainfall patterns. Wetlands within Australia''s Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchment are not different, stressed by extensive cropping, urban expansion, and alteration for grazing. Understanding how stressors affect wildlife is essential for the effective management of biodiversity values and minimizing unintended consequences when trading off the multiple values wetlands support. Impact assessment is difficult, often relying on an aggregation of ad hoc observations that are spatially biased toward easily accessible areas, rather than systematic and randomized surveys. Using a large aggregate database of ad hoc observations, this study aimed to examine the influence of urban proximity on machine‐learning models predicting taxonomic richness and assemblage turnover, relative to other habitat, landscape, and climate variables, for vertebrates dwelling in the wetlands of the GBR catchment. The distance from the nearest city was, by substantial margins, the most influential factor in predicting the richness and assemblage turnover of all vertebrate groups, except fish. Richness and assemblage turnover was predicted to be greatest nearest the main urban centers. The extent of various wetland habitats was highly influential in predicting the richness of all groups, while climate (predominately the rainfall in the wettest quarter) was highly influential in predicting assemblage turnover for all groups. Bias of survey records toward urban centers strongly influenced our ability to model wetland‐affiliated vertebrates and may obscure our understanding of how vertebrates respond to habitat loss and climate change. This reinforces the need for randomized and systematic surveys to supplement existing ad hoc surveys. We urge modelers in other jurisdictions to better portray the potential influence of survey biases when modeling species distributions.     

Living on the edge – plants and global change in continental and maritime Antarctica

Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems experience some of the most extreme growth conditions on Earth and are characterized by extreme aridity and subzero temperatures. Antarctic vegetation is therefore at the physiological limits of survival and, as a consequence, even slight changes to growth conditions are likely to have a large impact, rendering Antarctic terrestrial communities sensitive to climate change. Climate change is predicted to affect the high‐latitude regions first and most severely. In recent decades, the Antarctic has undergone significant environmental change, including the largest increases in ultraviolet‐B (UV‐B; 290–320 nm) radiation levels in the world and, in the maritime region at least, significant temperature increases. This review describes the current evidence for environmental change in Antarctica, and the impacts of this change on the terrestrial vegetation. This is largely restricted to cryptogams, such as bryophytes, lichens and algae; only two vascular plant species occur in the Antarctic, both restricted to the maritime region. We review the range of ecological and physiological consequences of increasing UV‐B radiation levels, and of changes in temperature, water relations and nutrient availability. It is clear that climate change is already affecting the Antarctic terrestrial vegetation, and significant impacts are likely to continue in the future. We conclude that, in order to gain a better understanding of the complex dynamics of this important system, there is a need for more manipulative, long‐term field experiments designed to address the impacts of changes in multiple abiotic factors on the Antarctic flora.     

Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change

Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species’ extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.     

Climate and dispersal influence the structure of leaf fungal endophyte communities of Quercus gambelii in the eastern Great Basin,USA

Endophytic fungi form communities within living plant tissues. Their functions vary tremendously so the structures of their communities influence plant and ecosystem functions. We determined the separate effects of neutral and deterministic processes structuring communities of Quercus gambelii leaf endophytes by sampling north- and south-facing flanks of four canyons so local climate varied independently from spatial separation. We found that both deterministic (response to climate) and neutral (dispersal limitation) processes significantly influenced community structure. These findings, if applicable to other systems, may have consequences in both agricultural and natural ecosystems. Endophyte dispersal could limit agricultural production, ecosystem restoration or natural plant establishment. Thus deliberate inoculation may prove useful in some situations. Moreover, the influence of climate on fungal endophyte communities indicates that climate change may not only impact plant distributions directly, but may also do so indirectly via the effect of endophytes on plant tolerance to temperature and moisture extremes.     

Exploring Indus crop processing: combining phytolith and macrobotanical analyses to consider the organisation of agriculture in northwest India c. 3200–1500 <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">bc</Emphasis>

This paper presents a preliminary study combining macrobotanical and phytolith analyses to explore crop processing at archaeological sites in Haryana and Rajasthan, northwest India. Current understanding of the agricultural strategies in use by populations associated with South Asia’s Indus Civilisation (3200–1900 bc) has been derived from a small number of systematic macrobotanical studies focusing on a small number of sites, with little use of multi-proxy analysis. In this study both phytolith and macrobotanical analyses are used to explore the organisation of crop processing at five small Indus settlements with a view to understanding the impact of urban development and decline on village agriculture. The differing preservation potential of the two proxies has allowed for greater insights into the different stages of processing represented at these sites: with macrobotanical remains allowing for more species-level specific analysis, though due to poor chaff presentation the early stages of processing were missed; however these early stages of processing were evident in the less highly resolved but better preserved phytolith remains. The combined analyses suggests that crop processing aims and organisation differed according to the season of cereal growth, contrary to current models of Indus Civilisation labour organisation that suggest change over time. The study shows that the agricultural strategies of these frequently overlooked smaller sites question the simplistic models that have traditionally been assumed for the time period, and that both multi-proxy analysis and rural settlements are deserving of further exploration.     

Demographic Amplification of Climate Change Experienced by the Contiguous United States Population during the 20th Century

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20^th century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.     

Flying in the face of climate change: a review of climate change, past, present and future

The distribution and abundance of birds is known to depend critically upon climate variability at a range of temporal and spatial scales. In this paper we review historical changes in climate in the context of what is known about climate variability over the last millennium, with particular reference to the British Isles. The climate of Britain is now warmer than it has been in at least 340 years, with the 1990s decade 0.5 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average. In addition, the frequency of cold days (mean temperature below 0 °C), particularly during March and November, has declined and there has been a marked shift in the seasonality of precipitation, with winters becoming substantially wetter and summers becoming slightly drier. Current understanding is that the rate of future warming is likely to accelerate with more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves, milder winters, an increase in winter rainfall, an increased risk of winter river floods, and an increase in mean sea-level and associated coastal flooding. All of these aspects of climate change are likely to impact on coastal birds. A range of potential future climate scenarios for the British Isles are presented derived from recently completed global climate model experiments. For migrant bird species, changes in the British climate have also to be seen within the context of remote climate change in both the breeding and the overwintering grounds.     

Viewing Change Through the Prism of Indigenous Human Ecology: Findings from the Afghan and Tajik Pamirs

The effects of socioecological transformations such as climate change, the collapse of the Soviet empire, and civil war are examined for 14 villages in the valleys of the Pamir Mountains in the historical Badakhshan region, now divided between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Preliminary findings indicate concern for food sovereignty, evidence of biocultural impacts of climate change, an increasing burden on women, debilitating opium addiction, the ecological importance of sacred sites, and other priorities related to sustainable livelihoods, such as energy needs (for fuel and lighting) and physical and social infrastructure in the form of roads and schools. In the complex setting of the Pamir Mountains, characterized by both cultural and ecological diversity and marked by artificial political boundaries, the creative and pragmatic interaction between indigenous and scientific knowledge sustains the best hope for survival. Applied research must combine communities of inquirers (research institutions) with communities of social practitioners (farmers, pastoralists, and civil society institutions) to facilitate indigenous participation in generating context-specific knowledge. The goal of such research is practical outcomes that will meet the urgent priorities of village communities. This paper establishes a baseline from which undertake applied human ecological research related to livelihood security.     

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources,Shifts and Extremes

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21^st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.     

Data on mid-Holocene climatic, vegetation and anthropogenic interactions at Stanshiel Rig, southern Scotland

Pollen, microscopic charcoal and peat humification analyses were applied to radiocarbon-dated peat cores to examine environmental change before and after the mid-Holocene transition from hunter-gatherer (Mesolithic) to agricultural (Neolithic) communities in presently marginal upland pasture at Stanshiel Rig, Annandale, southern Scotland. The Mesolithic-Neolithic transition in northern Britain is characterised by a number kf key environmental changes as well as economic shifts, including temporal patterns of fire and the Ulmus decline. Deliberate vegetation modification by Mesolithic communities is not demonstrable at Stanshiel Rig, and openings in the woodland canopy may have been promoted by grazing by wild animals or have been a consequence of climate change. Changes in fire frequency are also correlated with peat- and pollen-stratigraphic evidence for shifts to a drier climate in the late Mesolithic, probably mediated through pedological and biomass-storage change. A single Ulmus decline occurred between ca. 5650 and 5600 cal B. P., and is related here to climate change. Neolithic-age impacts on the woodland were limited, and no cereal-type pollen were found. The difference between hunter-gatherer and opportunistic farmer/hunter-gatherer at this locally is argued to be insignificant, or not detectable palynologically. Received October 4, 2001 / Accepted July 22, 2002 Correspondence to: S. M. Cayless