Averting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes in India through Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxation: An Economic-Epidemiologic Modeling Study

Background

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population.

Methods and Findings

Using consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%–5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%–1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014–2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5–10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0–2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014–2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations.

Conclusion

Sustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Decreasing the Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in South Africa: The Impact of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages

Introduction

Type 2 diabetes poses an increasing public health burden in South Africa (SA) with obesity as the main driver of the epidemic. Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) is linked to weight gain and reducing SSB consumption may significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the burden of diabetes in SA.

Methods and Findings

We constructed a life table-based model in Microsoft Excel (2010). Consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations were used to estimate changes in daily energy intake and its projected impact on BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Diabetes relative risk and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on diabetes burden. Diabetes cost estimates were obtained from the South African Council for Medical Schemes. Over 20 years, a 20% SSB tax could reduce diabetes incident cases by 106 000 in women (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 70 000–142 000) and by 54 000 in men (95% UI: 33 000–80 000); and prevalence in all adults by 4.0% (95% UI: 2.7%-5.3%). Cumulatively over twenty years, approximately 21 000 (95% UI: 14 000–29 000) adult T2DM-related deaths, 374 000 DALYs attributed to T2DM (95% UI: 299 000–463 000) and over ZAR10 billion T2DM healthcare costs (95% UI: ZAR6.8–14.0 billion) equivalent to USD860 million (95% UI: USD570 million–USD1.2 billion) may be averted.

Conclusion

Fiscal policy on SSBs has the potential to mitigate the diabetes epidemic in South Africa and contribute to the National Department of Health goals stated in the National NCD strategic plan.     

The Gap between Estimated Incidence of End-Stage Renal Disease and Use of Therapy

Background

Relatively few data exist on the burden of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and use of renal replacement therapy (RRT)–a life-saving therapy–in developing regions. No study has quantified the proportion of patients who develop ESRD but are unable to access RRT.

Methods

We performed a comprehensive literature search to estimate use and annual initiation of RRT worldwide, and present these estimates according to World Bank regions. We also present estimates of survival and of etiology of diseases in patients undergoing RRT. Using data on prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, we modeled the incidence of ESRD related to these risk factors in order to quantify the gap between ESRD and use of RRT in developing regions.

Results

We find that 1.9 million patients are undergoing RRT worldwide, with continued use and annual initiation at 316 and 73 per million population respectively. RRT use correlates directly (Pearson’s r = 0.94) with regional income. Hemodialysis remains the dominant form of RRT but there is wide regional variation in its use. With the exception of the Latin American and Caribbean region, it appears that initiation of RRT in developing regions is restricted to fewer than a quarter of patients projected to develop ESRD. This results in at least 1.2 million premature deaths each year due to lack of access to RRT as a result of diabetes and elevated blood pressure and as many as 3.2 million premature deaths due to all causes of ESRD.

Conclusion

Thus, the majority of patients projected to reach ESRD due to diabetes or hypertension in developing regions are unable to access RRT; this gap will increase with rising prevalence of these risk factors worldwide.     

Sugar Sweetened Beverages and Weight Gain over 4 Years in a Thai National Cohort – A Prospective Analysis

Introduction

Sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) are implicated in the rising prevalence of obesity and diet-related chronic diseases worldwide. However, little is known about their contribution to weight gain in Asian populations. This study aimed to investigate weight change associated with SSB consumption between 2005 and 2009 in a large national cohort of Thai university students.

Methods

Questionnaire data were collected from a large Thai cohort (the Thai Health-Risk Transition: a National Cohort Study). The analysis was based on responses from 59 283 of the 60 569 (98%) cohort members who had valid SSB consumption and weight variables in 2005 and 2009. The relationship between SSB consumption in 2005 and self-reported weight change was analysed using multiple linear regression models controlled for socio-demographic, activity and (non-validated) dietary factors shown to influence weight.

Results

Higher frequency of SSB consumption in 2005 was significantly associated with greater weight gain between 2005 and 2009 in all age groups and in both sexes (p<0.0001); persons who consumed SSBs at least once a day in 2005 gained 0.5 kg more than those who consumed SSBs less than once a month. The estimated weight gain for the average person in the sample was 1.9 kg (95% C I 1.95–1.96). The difference in weight gain between those who increased their consumption frequency (<once a month to > once per day) between 2005 and 2009 compared to those who maintained it was 0.3 kgs, while persons who reduced their consumption frequency (once a day to > once a month) gained 0.2 kgs less than those whose consumption remained unchanged.

Conclusion

SSB consumption is independently associated with weight gain in the Thai population. Research and health promotion in Thailand and other economically transitioning countries should focus on reducing their contribution to population weight gain and to diet-related chronic diseases.     

Dietary Protein Intake and Coronary Heart Disease in a Large Community Based Cohort: Results from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Background

Prospective data examining the relationship between dietary protein intake and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) are inconclusive. Most evidence is derived from homogenous populations such as health professionals. Large community-based analyses in more diverse samples are lacking.

Methods

We studied the association of protein type and major dietary protein sources and risk for incident CHD in 12,066 middle-aged adults (aged 45–64 at baseline, 1987–1989) from four U.S. communities enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study who were free of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease at baseline. Dietary protein intake was assessed at baseline and after 6 years of follow-up by food frequency questionnaire. Our primary outcome was adjudicated coronary heart disease events or deaths with following up through December 31, 2010. Cox proportional hazard models with multivariable adjustment were used for statistical analyses.

Results

During a median follow-up of 22 years, there were 1,147 CHD events. In multivariable analyses total, animal and vegetable protein were not associated with an increased risk for CHD before or after adjustment. In food group analyses of major dietary protein sources, protein intake from red and processed meat, dairy products, fish, nuts, eggs, and legumes were not significantly associated with CHD risk. The hazard ratios [with 95% confidence intervals] for risk of CHD across quintiles of protein from poultry were 1.00 [ref], 0.83 [0.70–0.99], 0.93 [0.75–1.15], 0.88 [0.73–1.06], 0.79 [0.64–0.98], P for trend  = 0.16). Replacement analyses evaluating the association of substituting one source of dietary protein for another or of decreasing protein intake at the expense of carbohydrates or total fats did not show any statistically significant association with CHD risk.

Conclusion

Based on a large community cohort we found no overall relationship between protein type and major dietary protein sources and risk for CHD.     

Life Course Impact of School-Based Promotion of Healthy Eating and Active Living to Prevent Childhood Obesity

Background

The Alberta Project Promoting active Living and healthy Eating in Schools (APPLE Schools) is a comprehensive school health program that is proven feasible and effective in preventing obesity among school aged children. To support decision making on expanding this program, evidence on its long-term health and economic impacts is particularly critical. In the present study we estimate the life course impact of the APPLE Schools programs in terms of future body weights and avoided health care costs.

Method

We modeled growth rates of body mass index (BMI) using longitudinal data from the National Population Health Survey collected between 1996–2008. These growth rate characteristics were used to project BMI trajectories for students that attended APPLE Schools and for students who attended control schools (141 randomly selected schools) in the Canadian province of Alberta.

Results

Throughout the life course, the prevalence of overweight (including obesity) was 1.2% to 2.8% (1.7 on average) less among students attending APPLE Schools relative to their peers attending control schools. The life course prevalence of obesity was 0.4% to 1.4% (0.8% on average) less among APPLE Schools students. If the APPLE Schools program were to be scaled up, the potential cost savings would be $33 to 82 million per year for the province of Alberta, or $150 to 330 million per year for Canada.

Conclusions

These projected health and economic benefits seem to support broader implementation of school-based health promotion programs.     

Effects on Coronary Heart Disease of Increasing Polyunsaturated Fat in Place of Saturated Fat: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background

Reduced saturated fat (SFA) consumption is recommended to reduce coronary heart disease (CHD), but there is an absence of strong supporting evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of clinical CHD events and few guidelines focus on any specific replacement nutrient. Additionally, some public health groups recommend lowering or limiting polyunsaturated fat (PUFA) consumption, a major potential replacement for SFA.

Methods and Findings

We systematically investigated and quantified the effects of increased PUFA consumption, as a replacement for SFA, on CHD endpoints in RCTs. RCTs were identified by systematic searches of multiple online databases through June 2009, grey literature sources, hand-searching related articles and citations, and direct contacts with experts to identify potentially unpublished trials. Studies were included if they randomized participants to increased PUFA for at least 1 year without major concomitant interventions, had an appropriate control group, and reported incidence of CHD (myocardial infarction and/or cardiac death). Inclusions/exclusions were adjudicated and data were extracted independently and in duplicate by two investigators and included population characteristics, control and intervention diets, follow-up duration, types of events, risk ratios, and SEs. Pooled effects were calculated using inverse-variance-weighted random effects meta-analysis. From 346 identified abstracts, eight trials met inclusion criteria, totaling 13,614 participants with 1,042 CHD events. Average weighted PUFA consumption was 14.9% energy (range 8.0%–20.7%) in intervention groups versus 5.0% energy (range 4.0%–6.4%) in controls. The overall pooled risk reduction was 19% (RR = 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70–0.95, p = 0.008), corresponding to 10% reduced CHD risk (RR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.83–0.97) for each 5% energy of increased PUFA, without evidence for statistical heterogeneity (Q-statistic p = 0.13; I² = 37%). Meta-regression identified study duration as an independent determinant of risk reduction (p = 0.017), with studies of longer duration showing greater benefits.

Conclusions

These findings provide evidence that consuming PUFA in place of SFA reduces CHD events in RCTs. This suggests that rather than trying to lower PUFA consumption, a shift toward greater population PUFA consumption in place of SFA would significantly reduce rates of CHD. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Prevalence and Incidence of Diabetes in Stockholm County 1990-2010

Background

Diabetes is on the rise in the western world, but data from Scandinavia are inconsistent with indications of stable or even reverse trends. To shed new light on this issue, we investigated diabetes trends in Stockholm County 1990–2010, taking into account trends in risk factors and mortality.

Methods

We used data from a large population-based quadrennial public health survey conducted between 1990 and 2010 in Stockholm County (∼2.1 million inhabitants), supplemented with data from national registers. The age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates of diabetes and related risk factors 1990–2010 were estimated in adult inhabitants. We also modelled the influence of potential risk factors on the diabetes trends and estimated the life time risk of diabetes.

Results

The prevalence of diabetes was 4.6% (95% confidence interval (CI); 4.5–4.8%) in 2010 compared to 2.8% (95% CI; 2.3–3.5%) in 1990. Between 1990 and 2002 the prevalence rose annually by 3.8% (95% CI; 2.1–5.5). Incidence rates showed a similar pattern and rose by 3.0% (95% CI; 0.3–5.7%) annually 1990–2002. The rising incidence was mainly attributable to increasing prevalence of overweight/obesity, which rose by 46% during the observation period. In 2010, the lifetime risk of adult onset diabetes was 28% (95% CI; 26–31%) in men and 19% (95% CI; 17–21%) in women.

Conclusions

Diabetes rates have been increasing in Stockholm over the last decades, both in terms of incidence and prevalence, and this development is most likely the result of increasing overweight and obesity in the population.     

The Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease and the Population Attributable Fraction of Its Risk Factors in Tehran: A 10-Year Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

Data on incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) is scarce in the Middle East and little is known about the contribution of known risk factors in this area.

Methods

The incidence of CHD and the effect of modifiable risk factors were explored in 2889 men and 3803 women aged 30–74 years in the population based cohort of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, during 1999–2010. Average population attributable fraction (aPAF) was calculated for any risk factor using direct method based on regression model.

Results

The crude incidence rate in men was about twice that in women (11.9 vs. 6.5 per 1000 person-years). The aPAF of hypertension, diabetes, high total cholesterol and low-HDL cholesterol was 9.4%, 6.7%, 7.3% and 6.1% in men and 17%, 16.6%, 12% and 4.6% in women respectively. This index was 7.0% for smoking in men. High risk age contributed to 42% and 22% of risk in men and women respectively.

Conclusions

The incidence in this population of Iran was comparable to those in the US in the seventies. Well known modifiable risk factors explained about 40% and 50% of CHD burden in men and women respectively. Aging, as a reflection of unmeasured or unknown risk factors, bears the most burden of CHD, especially in men; indicating more age-related health care is required.     

Direct Diabetes-Related Costs in Young Patients with Early-Onset,Long-Lasting Type 1 Diabetes

Objective

To estimate diabetes-related direct health care costs in pediatric patients with early-onset type 1 diabetes of long duration in Germany.

Research Design and Methods

Data of a population-based cohort of 1,473 subjects with type 1 diabetes onset at 0–4 years of age within the years 1993–1999 were included (mean age 13.9 (SD 2.2) years, mean diabetes duration 10.9 (SD 1.9) years, as of 31.12.2007). Diabetes-related health care services utilized in 2007 were derived from a nationwide prospective documentation system (DPV). Health care utilization was valued in monetary terms based on inpatient and outpatient medical fees and retail prices (perspective of statutory health insurance). Multiple regression models were applied to assess associations between direct diabetes-related health care costs per patient-year and demographic and clinical predictors.

Results

Mean direct diabetes-related health care costs per patient-year were €3,745 (inter-quartile range: 1,943–4,881). Costs for glucose self-monitoring were the main cost category (28.5%), followed by costs for continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (25.0%), diabetes-related hospitalizations (22.1%) and insulin (18.4%). Female gender, pubertal age and poor glycemic control were associated with higher and migration background with lower total costs.

Conclusions

Main cost categories in patients with on average 11 years of diabetes duration were costs for glucose self-monitoring, insulin pump therapy, hospitalization and insulin. Optimization of glycemic control in particular in pubertal age through intensified care with improved diabetes education and tailored insulin regimen, can contribute to the reduction of direct diabetes-related costs in this patient group.     

Use of NHANES Data to Link Chemical Exposures to Chronic Diseases: A Cautionary Tale

Background

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) is one example of cross-sectional datasets that have been used to draw causal inferences regarding environmental chemical exposures and adverse health outcomes. Our objectives were to analyze four NHANES datasets using consistent a priori selected methods to address the following questions: Is there a consistent association between urinary bisphenol A (BPA) measures and diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and/or heart attack across surveys? Is NHANES an appropriate dataset for investigating associations between chemicals with short physiologic half-lives such as BPA and chronic diseases with multi-factorial etiologies? Data on urinary BPA and health outcomes from 2003–2004, 2005–2006, 2007–2008, and 2009–2010 were available.

Methodology and Findings

Regression models were adjusted for creatinine, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, income, smoking, heavy drinking, BMI, waist circumference, calorie intake, family history of heart attack, hypertension, sedentary time, and total cholesterol. Urinary BPA was not significantly associated with adverse health outcomes for any of the NHANES surveys, with ORs (95% CIs) ranging from 0.996 (0.951–1.04) to 1.03 (0.978–1.09) for CHD, 0.987 (0.941–1.04) to 1.04 (0.996–1.09) for heart attack, and 0.957 (0.899–1.02) to 1.01 (0.980–1.05) for diabetes.

Conclusions

Using scientifically and clinically supportable exclusion criteria and outcome definitions, we consistently found no associations between urinary BPA and heart disease or diabetes. These results do not support associations and causal inferences reported in previous studies that used different criteria and definitions. We are not drawing conclusions regarding whether BPA is a risk factor for these diseases. We are stating the opposite–that using cross-sectional datasets like NHANES to draw such conclusions about short-lived environmental chemicals and chronic complex diseases is inappropriate. We need to expend resources on appropriately designed epidemiologic studies and toxicological explorations to understand whether these types of chemicals play a causal role in chronic diseases.     

The Potential Impact of a 20% Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Obesity in South African Adults: A Mathematical Model

Background/Objectives

The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa.

Methods

A mathematical simulation model was constructed to estimate the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity. We used consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and a previous meta-analysis of studies on own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs to estimate the shift in daily energy consumption expected of increased prices of SSBs, and energy balance equations to estimate shifts in body mass index. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the SA National Income Dynamics Survey 2012 to the lognormal distribution and shifting the mean values. Uncertainty was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations.

Results

A 20% tax is predicted to reduce energy intake by about 36kJ per day (95% CI: 9-68kJ). Obesity is projected to reduce by 3.8% (95% CI: 0.6%–7.1%) in men and 2.4% (95% CI: 0.4%–4.4%) in women. The number of obese adults would decrease by over 220 000 (95% CI: 24 197–411 759).

Conclusions

Taxing SSBs could impact the burden of obesity in South Africa particularly in young adults, as one component of a multi-faceted effort to prevent obesity.     

Population Assessment of Future Trajectories in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends.

Methods and findings

The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040.

Conclusions

The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.     

Fast Food Consumption and Gestational Diabetes Incidence in the SUN Project

Background

Gestational diabetes prevalence is increasing, mostly because obesity among women of reproductive age is continuously escalating. We aimed to investigate the incidence of gestational diabetes according to the consumption of fast food in a cohort of university graduates.

Methods

The prospective dynamic “Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra” (SUN) cohort included data of 3,048 women initially free of diabetes or previous gestational diabetes who reported at least one pregnancy between December 1999 and March 2011. Fast food consumption was assessed through a validated 136-item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Fast food was defined as the consumption of hamburgers, sausages, and pizza. Three categories of fast food were established: low (0–3 servings/month), intermediate (>3 servings/month and ≤2 servings/week) and high (>2 servings/week). Non-conditional logistic regression models were used to adjust for potential confounders.

Results

We identified 159 incident cases of gestational diabetes during follow-up. After adjusting for age, baseline body mass index, total energy intake, smoking, physical activity, family history of diabetes, cardiovascular disease/hypertension at baseline, parity, adherence to Mediterranean dietary pattern, alcohol intake, fiber intake, and sugar-sweetened soft drinks consumption, fast food consumption was significantly associated with a higher risk of incident gestational diabetes, with multivariate adjusted OR of 1.31 (95% conficence interval [CI]:0.81–2.13) and 1.86 (95% CI: 1.13–3.06) for the intermediate and high categories, respectively, versus the lowest category of baseline fast food consumption (p for linear trend: 0.007).

Conclusion

Our results suggest that pre-pregnancy higher consumption of fast food is an independent risk factor for gestational diabetes.     

Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill for Fruit and Nut Trees in California during 1950–2099

Background

Winter chill is one of the defining characteristics of a location''s suitability for the production of many tree crops. We mapped and investigated observed historic and projected future changes in winter chill in California, quantified with two different chilling models (Chilling Hours, Dynamic Model).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Based on hourly and daily temperature records, winter chill was modeled for two past temperature scenarios (1950 and 2000), and 18 future scenarios (average conditions during 2041–2060 and 2080–2099 under each of the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3 and MIROC climate models). For each scenario, 100 replications of the yearly temperature record were produced, using a stochastic weather generator. We then introduced and mapped a novel climatic statistic, “safe winter chill”, the 10% quantile of the resulting chilling distributions. This metric can be interpreted as the amount of chilling that growers can safely expect under each scenario. Winter chill declined substantially for all emissions scenarios, with the area of safe winter chill for many tree species or cultivars decreasing 50–75% by mid-21^st century, and 90–100% by late century.

Conclusions/Significance

Both chilling models consistently projected climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21^st century that will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California, with the Chilling Hours Model projecting greater changes than the Dynamic Model. The tree crop industry in California will likely need to develop agricultural adaptation measures (e.g. low-chill varieties and dormancy-breaking chemicals) to cope with these projected changes. For some crops, production might no longer be possible.     

Influenza Illness and Hospitalizations Averted by Influenza Vaccination in the United States, 2005–2011

Context

The goal of influenza vaccination programs is to reduce influenza-associated disease outcomes. Therefore, estimating the reduced burden of influenza as a result of vaccination over time and by age group would allow for a clear understanding of the value of influenza vaccines in the US, and of areas where improvements could lead to greatest benefits.

Objective

To estimate the direct effect of influenza vaccination in the US in terms of averted number of cases, medically-attended cases, and hospitalizations over six recent influenza seasons.

Design

Using existing surveillance data, we present a method for assessing the impact of influenza vaccination where impact is defined as either the number of averted outcomes or as the prevented disease fraction (the number of cases estimated to have been averted relative to the number of cases that would have occurred in the absence of vaccination).

Results

We estimated that during our 6-year study period, the number of influenza illnesses averted by vaccination ranged from a low of approximately 1.1 million (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.6–1.7 million) during the 2006–2007 season to a high of 5 million (CI 2.9–8.6 million) during the 2010–2011 season while the number of averted hospitalizations ranged from a low of 7,700 (CI 3,700–14,100) in 2009–2010 to a high of 40,400 (CI 20,800–73,000) in 2010–2011. Prevented fractions varied across age groups and over time. The highest prevented fraction in the study period was observed in 2010–2011, reflecting the post-pandemic expansion of vaccination coverage.

Conclusions

Influenza vaccination programs in the US produce a substantial health benefit in terms of averted cases, clinic visits and hospitalizations. Our results underscore the potential for additional disease prevention through increased vaccination coverage, particularly among nonelderly adults, and increased vaccine effectiveness, particularly among the elderly.     

Potential Future Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine in a Southern African Setting

Background

It is important for public health and within the HIV vaccine development field to understand the potential population level impact of an HIV vaccine of partial efficacy—both in preventing infection and in reducing viral load in vaccinated individuals who become infected—in the context of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings.

Methods

An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various combinations of efficacy characteristics, in the context of continued ART roll-out in southern Africa.

Results

In the context of our base case epidemic (in 2015 HIV prevalence 28% and incidence 1.7 per 100 person years), a vaccine with only 30% preventative efficacy could make a substantial difference in the rate with which HIV incidence declines; the impact on incidence in relative terms is projected to increase over time, with a projected 67% lower HIV incidence in 2060 compared with no vaccine introduction. The projected mean decline in the general adult population death rate 2040–2060 is 11%. A vaccine with no prevention efficacy but which reduces viral load by 1 log is predicted to result in a modest (14%) reduction in HIV incidence and an 8% reduction in death rate in the general adult population (mean 2040–2060). These effects were broadly similar in multivariable uncertainty analysis.

Interpretation

Introduction of a partially effective preventive HIV vaccine would make a substantial long-term impact on HIV epidemics in southern Africa, in addition to the effects of ART. Development of an HIV vaccine, even of relatively low apparent efficacy at the individual level, remains a critical global public health goal.     

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Schistosomiasis Treatment for Reducing HIV Transmission in Africa – The Case of Zimbabwean Women

Background

Epidemiological data from Zimbabwe suggests that genital infection with Schistosoma haematobium may increase the risk of HIV infection in young women. Therefore, the treatment of Schistosoma haematobium with praziquantel could be a potential strategy for reducing HIV infection. Here we assess the potential cost-effectiveness of praziquantel as a novel intervention strategy against HIV infection.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model of female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) and HIV infections in Zimbabwe that we fitted to cross-sectional data of FGS and HIV prevalence of 1999. We validated our epidemic projections using antenatal clinic data on HIV prevalence. We simulated annual praziquantel administration to school-age children. We then used these model predictions to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of annual administration of praziquantel as a potential measure to reduce the burden of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

Findings

We showed that for a variation of efficacy between 30–70% of mass praziquantel administration for reducing the enhanced risk of HIV transmission per sexual act due to FGS, annual administration of praziquantel to school-age children in Zimbabwe could result in net savings of US$16–101 million compared with no mass treatment of schistosomiasis over a ten-year period. For a variation in efficacy between 30–70% of mass praziquantel administration for reducing the acquisition of FGS, annual administration of praziquantel to school-age children could result in net savings of US$36−92 million over a ten-year period.

Conclusions

In addition to reducing schistosomiasis burden, mass praziquantel administration may be a highly cost-effective way of reducing HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa. Program costs per case of HIV averted are similar to, and under some conditions much better than, other interventions that are currently implemented in Africa to reduce HIV transmission. As a cost-saving strategy, mass praziquantel administration should be prioritized over other less cost-effective public health interventions.     

The Effects of Shift Work on Sleeping Quality,Hypertension and Diabetes in Retired Workers

Background

Shift work has been associated with adverse health effects by disturbing circadian rhythms. However,its potential long-term health effects and the persistent effects after leaving shifts have not been well established.

Methods and Results

We studied 26,463 workers from Tongji-Dongfeng Cohort in China. All the participants are retired employees of Dongfeng Motor Company. Information on demographics, occupational history and medical history were gathered through questionnaires. After adjusting potential confounders in the logistic regression models, shift work was associated with poor sleeping quality, diabetes and hypertension independently. We observed significant effects of shift work on poor sleeping quality, diabetes and hypertension; the ORs (95%CI) are 1.18 (1.09–1.27), 1.10 (1.03–1.17) and 1.05 (1.01–1.09) respectively. In the further analysis, we found elevated ORs (95%CI) for participants with poor sleeping quality, the ORs (95%CI) are 1.34 (1.08–1.60), 1.13 (1.05–1.21), 1.05 (1.03–1.07) and 1.05 (1.01–1.09) for 1–4, 5–9, 10–19, ≥20 years of shift work respectively. However, with the extension of leaving shift work duration, the effects of shift work on sleep quality gradually reduced.

Conclusions

Shift work may be an independent risk factor for sleeping quality, diabetes and hypertension even in retired workers. Applicable intervention strategies are needed for prevention of sleep loss, diabetes, and hypertension for shift workers.     

Assessment of Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of 10-Valent and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Kenyan Children

Background

The GAVI Alliance supported10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) introduction in Kenya. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of introducing either PCV10 or the13-valent vaccine (PCV13) from a societal perspective and explored the incremental impact of including indirect vaccine effects.

Methods

The costs and effects of pneumococcal vaccination among infants born in Kenya in 2010 were assessed using a decision analytic model comparing PCV10 or PCV13, in turn, with no vaccination. Direct vaccine effects were estimated as a reduction in the incidence of pneumococcal meningitis, sepsis, bacteraemic pneumonia and non-bacteraemic pneumonia. Pneumococcal disease incidence was extrapolated from a population-based hospital surveillance system in Kilifi and adjustments were made for variable access to care across Kenya. We used vaccine efficacy estimates from a trial in The Gambia and accounted for serotype distribution in Kilifi. We estimated indirect vaccine protection and serotype replacement by extrapolating from the USA. Multivariable sensitivity analysis was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation. We assumed a vaccine price of US$ 3.50 per dose.

Findings

The annual cost of delivering PCV10 was approximately US$14 million. We projected a 42.7% reduction in pneumococcal disease episodes leading to a US$1.97 million reduction in treatment costs and a 6.1% reduction in childhood mortality annually. In the base case analysis, costs per discounted DALY and per death averted by PCV10, amounted to US$ 59 (95% CI 26–103) and US$ 1,958 (95% CI 866–3,425), respectively. PCV13 introduction improved the cost-effectiveness ratios by approximately 20% and inclusion of indirect effects improved cost-effectiveness ratios by 43–56%. The break-even prices for introduction of PCV10 and PCV13 are US$ 0.41 and 0.51, respectively.

Conclusions

Introducing either PCV10 or PCV13 in Kenya is highly cost-effective from a societal perspective. Indirect effects, if they occur, would significantly improve the cost-effectiveness.