Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest

The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire–climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire–climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest.     

What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa

The factors controlling the extent of fire in Africa south of the equator were investigated using moderate resolution (500 m) satellite-derived burned area maps and spatial data on the environmental factors thought to affect burnt area. A random forest regression tree procedure was used to determine the relative importance of each factor in explaining the burned area fraction and to address hypotheses concerned with human and climatic influences on the drivers of burnt area. The model explained 68% of the variance in burnt area. Tree cover, rainfall in the previous 2 years, and rainfall seasonality were the most important predictors. Human activities – represented by grazing, roads per unit area, population density, and cultivation fraction – were also shown to affect burnt area, but only in parts of the continent with specific climatic conditions, and often in ways counter to the prevailing wisdom that more human activity leads to more fire. The analysis found no indication that ignitions were limiting total burnt area on the continent, and most of the spatial variation was due to variation in fuel load and moisture. Split conditions from the regression tree identified (i) low rainfall regions, where fire is rare; (ii) regions where fire is under human control; and (iii) higher rainfall regions where burnt area is determined by rainfall seasonality. This study provides insights into the physical, climatic, and human drivers of fire and their relative importance across southern Africa, and represents the beginnings of a predictive framework for burnt area.     

Anthropogenic modifications to fire regimes in the wider Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem

Fire is a key driver in savannah systems and widely used as a land management tool. Intensifying human land uses are leading to rapid changes in the fire regimes, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and composition. We undertake a novel analysis describing spatial patterns in the fire regime of the Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem, document multidecadal temporal changes and investigate the factors underlying these patterns. We used MODIS active fire and burned area products from 2001 to 2014 to identify individual fires; summarizing four characteristics for each detected fire: size, ignition date, time since last fire and radiative power. Using satellite imagery, we estimated the rate of change in the density of livestock bomas as a proxy for livestock density. We used these metrics to model drivers of variation in the four fire characteristics, as well as total number of fires and total area burned. Fires in the Serengeti‐Mara show high spatial variability—with number of fires and ignition date mirroring mean annual precipitation. The short‐term effect of rainfall decreases fire size and intensity but cumulative rainfall over several years leads to increased standing grass biomass and fuel loads, and, therefore, in larger and hotter fires. Our study reveals dramatic changes over time, with a reduction in total number of fires and total area burned, to the point where some areas now experience virtually no fire. We suggest that increasing livestock numbers are driving this decline, presumably by inhibiting fire spread. These temporal patterns are part of a global decline in total area burned, especially in savannahs, and we caution that ecosystem functioning may have been compromised. Land managers and policy formulators need to factor in rapid fire regime modifications to achieve management objectives and maintain the ecological function of savannah ecosystems.     

Fire and the relative roles of weather,climate and landscape characteristics in the Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence forest of Canada

Question: In deciduous‐dominated forest landscapes, what are the relative roles of fire weather, climate, human and biophysical landscape characteristics for explaining variation in large fire occurrence and area burned? Location: The Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence forest of Canada. Methods: We characterized the recent (1959–1999) regime of large (≥ 200 ha) fires in 26 deciduous‐dominated landscapes and analysed these data in an information‐theoretic framework to compare six hypotheses that related fire occurrence and area burned to fire weather severity, climate normals, population and road densities, and enduring landscape characteristics such as surficial deposits and large lakes. Results: 392 large fires burned 833 698 ha during the study period, annually burning on average 0.07%± 0.42% of forested area in each landscape. Fire activity was strongly seasonal, with most fires and area burned occurring in May and June. A combination of antecedent‐winter precipitation, fire season precipitation deficit/surplus and percent of landscape covered by well‐drained surficial deposits best explained fire occurrence and area burned. Fire occurrence varied only as a function of fire weather and climate variables, whereas area burned was also explained by percent cover of aspen and pine stands, human population density and two enduring characteristics: percent cover of large water bodies and glaciofluvial deposits. Conclusion: Understanding the relative role of these variables may help design adaptation strategies for forecasted increases in fire weather severity by allowing (1) prioritization of landscapes according to enduring characteristics and (2) management of their composition so that substantially increased fire activity would be necessary to transform landscape structure and composition.     

Climate and socioeconomic drivers of biomass burning and carbon emissions from fires in tropical dry forests: A Pantropical analysis

Global burned area has declined by nearly one quarter between 1998 and 2015. Drylands contain a large proportion of these global fires but there are important differences within the drylands, for example, savannas and tropical dry forests (TDF). Savannas, a biome fire-prone and fire-adapted, have reduced the burned area, while the fire in the TDF is one of the most critical factors impacting biodiversity and carbon emissions. Moreover, under climate change scenarios TDF is expected to increase its current extent and raise the risk of fires. Despite regional and global scale effects, and the influence of this ecosystem on the global carbon cycle, little effort has been dedicated to studying the influence of climate (seasonality and extreme events) and socioeconomic conditions of fire regimen in TDF. Here we use the Global Fire Emissions Database and, climate and socioeconomic metrics to better understand long-term factors explaining the variation in burned area and biomass in TDF at Pantropical scale. On average, fires affected 1.4% of the total TDF' area (60,208 km²) and burned 24.4% (259.6 Tg) of the global burned biomass annually at Pantropical scales. Climate modulators largely influence local and regional fire regimes. Inter-annual variation in fire regime is shaped by El Niño and La Niña. During the El Niño and the forthcoming year of La Niña, there is an increment in extension (35.2% and 10.3%) and carbon emissions (42.9% and 10.6%). Socioeconomic indicators such as land-management and population were modulators of the size of both, burned area and carbon emissions. Moreover, fires may reduce the capability to reach the target of “half protected species” in the globe, that is, high-severity fires are recorded in ecoregions classified as nature could reach half protected. These observations may contribute to improving fire-management.     

Dynamics of an Anthropogenic Fire Regime

Human interaction with fire and vegetation occurs at many levels of human population density and cultural development, from subsistence cultures to highly technological societies. The dynamics of these interactions with respect to wildland fire are often difficult to understand and identify at short temporal scales. Dendrochronological fire histories from the Missouri Ozarks, coupled with human population data, offer a quantitative means of examining historic (1680-1990) changes in the anthropogenic fire regime. A temporal analysis of fire scar dates over the last 3 centuries indicates that the percent of sites burned and fire intervals of anthropogenic fires are conditioned by the following four limiting factors: (a) anthropogenic ignition, (b) surface fuel production, (c) fuel fragmentation, and (d) cultural behavior. During an ignition-dependent stage (fewer than 0.64 humans/km²), the percent of sites burned is logarithmically related to human population (r² = 0.67). During a fuel-limited stage, where population density exceeds a threshold of 0.64 humans/km², the percent of sites burned is independent of population increases and is limited by fuel production. During a fuel-fragmentation stage, regional trade allows population densities to increase above 3.4 humans/km², and the percent of sites burned becomes inversely related to population (r² = 0.18) as decreases in fuel continuity limit the propagation of surface fires. During a culture-dependent stage, increases in the value of timber over forage greatly reduce the mean fire interval and the percent of sites burned. Examples of the dynamics of these four stages are presented from the Current River watershed of the Missouri Ozarks.     

Cross‐scale controls on carbon emissions from boreal forest megafires

Climate warming and drying is associated with increased wildfire disturbance and the emergence of megafires in North American boreal forests. Changes to the fire regime are expected to strongly increase combustion emissions of carbon (C) which could alter regional C balance and positively feedback to climate warming. In order to accurately estimate C emissions and thereby better predict future climate feedbacks, there is a need to understand the major sources of heterogeneity that impact C emissions at different scales. Here, we examined 211 field plots in boreal forests dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana) or jack pine (Pinus banksiana) of the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada after an unprecedentedly large area burned in 2014. We assessed both aboveground and soil organic layer (SOL) combustion, with the goal of determining the major drivers in total C emissions, as well as to develop a high spatial resolution model to scale emissions in a relatively understudied region of the boreal forest. On average, 3.35 kg C m^?2 was combusted and almost 90% of this was from SOL combustion. Our results indicate that black spruce stands located at landscape positions with intermediate drainage contribute the most to C emissions. Indices associated with fire weather and date of burn did not impact emissions, which we attribute to the extreme fire weather over a short period of time. Using these results, we estimated a total of 94.3 Tg C emitted from 2.85 Mha of burned area across the entire 2014 NWT fire complex, which offsets almost 50% of mean annual net ecosystem production in terrestrial ecosystems of Canada. Our study also highlights the need for fine‐scale estimates of burned area that represent small water bodies and regionally specific calibrations of combustion that account for spatial heterogeneity in order to accurately model emissions at the continental scale.     

Variable carbon losses from recurrent fires in drained tropical peatlands

Tropical peatland fires play a significant role in the context of global warming through emissions of substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. However, the state of knowledge on carbon loss from these fires is still poorly developed with few studies reporting the associated mass of peat consumed. Furthermore, spatial and temporal variations in burn depth have not been previously quantified. This study presents the first spatially explicit investigation of fire‐driven tropical peat loss and its variability. An extensive airborne Light Detection and Ranging data set was used to develop a prefire peat surface modelling methodology, enabling the spatially differentiated quantification of burned area depth over the entire burned area. We observe a strong interdependence between burned area depth, fire frequency and distance to drainage canals. For the first time, we show that relative burned area depth decreases over the first four fire events and is constant thereafter. Based on our results, we revise existing peat and carbon loss estimates for recurrent fires in drained tropical peatlands. We suggest values for the dry mass of peat fuel consumed that are 206 t ha⁻¹ for initial fires, reducing to 115 t ha⁻¹ for second, 69 t ha⁻¹ for third and 23 t ha⁻¹ for successive fires, which are 58–7% of the current IPCC Tier 1 default value for all fires. In our study area, this results in carbon losses of 114, 64, 38 and 13 t C ha⁻¹ for first to fourth fires, respectively. Furthermore, we show that with increasing proximity to drainage canals both burned area depth and the probability of recurrent fires increase and present equations explaining burned area depth as a function of distance to drainage canal. This improved knowledge enables a more accurate approach to emissions accounting and will support IPCC Tier 2 reporting of fire emissions.     

蒙古高原草原火行为的时空格局与影响因子

采用GIS空间分析方法和L3JRC遥感卫星数据,研究了2000-2007年间蒙古高原草原火行为的时空分布规律,比较了中国内蒙古自治区和蒙古人民共和国草原火行为的差异,分析了植被、气候与人文因素等对草原火行为的影响.结果表明：不同植被类型间的过火率存在极显著差异（P<0.001）,为草甸草原>典型草原>荒漠草原,蒙古人民共和国草原过火率显著高于中国内蒙古自治区(P<0.001),过火频次的分布格局与过火迹地相一致.草原火行为存在明显的年际变化特征,草甸草原(r²=-0.54,P<0.05)和典型草原（r²=-0.61,P<0.05）的年过火率与年降雨量呈负相关关系;草原火集中在降水较少、风速较大的春、秋两季.中国内蒙古自治区的人口密度和载畜密度远高于蒙古人民共和国,而过火率则相反,表明人文因素,尤其是过度放牧是导致中国内蒙古自治区和蒙古人民共和国火行为差异的主要原因.     

Landscape-Scale Simulation of Heterogeneous Fire Effects on Pyrogenic Carbon Emissions,Tree Mortality,and Net Ecosystem Production

Fire influences carbon dynamics from local to global scales, but many uncertainties remain regarding the remote detection and simulation of heterogeneous fire effects. This study integrates Landsat-based remote sensing and Biome-BGC process modeling to simulate the effects of high-, moderate-, and low-severity fire on pyrogenic emissions, tree mortality, and net ecosystem production. The simulation area (244,600 ha) encompasses four fires that burned approximately 50,000 ha in 2002–2003 across the Metolius Watershed, Oregon, USA, as well as in situ measurements of postfire carbon pools and fluxes that we use for model evaluation. Simulated total pyrogenic emissions were 0.732 Tg C (2.4% of equivalent statewide anthropogenic carbon emissions over the same 2-year period). The simulated total carbon transfer due to tree mortality was fourfold higher than pyrogenic carbon emissions, but dead wood decomposition will occur over decades. Immediately postfire, burned areas were a simulated carbon source (net C exchange: −0.076 Tg C y⁻¹; mean ± SD: −142 ± 121 g C m⁻² y⁻¹). As expected, high-severity, stand-replacement fire had disproportionate carbon impacts. The per-unit area effects of moderate-severity fire were substantial, however, and the extent of low-severity fire merits its inclusion in landscape-scale analyses. These results demonstrate the potential to reduce uncertainties in landscape to regional carbon budgets by leveraging Landsat-based fire products that account for both stand-replacement and partial disturbance.     

Global change could amplify fire effects on soil greenhouse gas emissions

Background

Little is known about the combined impacts of global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning, even though such combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that can in turn feed back to climate change, such as soil emissions of greenhouse gases.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of a long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and increases in CO₂ concentration, precipitation and nitrogen supply on soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions in a grassland ecosystem. We examined the responses of soil N₂O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N₂O production – nitrification and denitrification – and of their main drivers. We show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N₂O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO₂ and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N₂O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO₂ and nitrogen. We also provide evidence that this response was caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability in the burned and fertilized plots.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results indicate that the combined effects of fire and global environmental changes can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change if we wish to be able to model future soil greenhouse gas emissions with greater confidence.     

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process‐based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO₂ fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO₂ fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post‐fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.     

Global spatial patterns and temporal trends of burned area between 1981 and 2000 using NOAA-NASA Pathfinder

An analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of global burned area with the Daily Tile US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer Pathfinder 8 km Land dataset between 1981 and 2000 is presented. Nine distinct temporal and spatial fire patterns were identified at the global scale using principal components and cluster analysis. Three major fire seasons were identified from June to December and from February to June for different areas of the northern hemisphere and from October to March for the southern hemisphere. The area burned primarily followed the annual cycle and secondarily, an important 6-month cycle. Temporal cycles were unimportant in some equatorial and tropical areas in the northern hemisphere. The total annual burned area has not increased in the last 20 years but a significant increase was found in the mid-latitude and subtropical areas of the northern hemisphere which was offset by a slight decrease in burned area in tropical southeast Asia and Central America. Additionally, burned area has significantly increased during the summer in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere and in the boreal region, and the fire season starts earlier in the mid-latitudes. Total burned area was explained by the extent of savanna (wooded grassland) cover. Latitude was not determinative as divergent fire patterns were encountered and did not have an impact on extent of burned area at our spatial level of analysis.     

Vegetation changes caused by recent fires in the northern boreal forest of eastern Canada

Abstract. From 1980–1989, fires burned 32 440 km² of boreal forest, 200 km south of the forest-tundra border in northern Québec, Canada. An assessment of the impact of fire on tree population densities was carried out by comparing the number of Pinus banksiana and Picea mariana in 83 sites before and after the sites burned in 1981, 1983, 1988 or 1989. Age structure analysis of post-fire populations burned in 1972, 1976 and 1983, along with the rapid exhaustion of the seed bank from burned trees, suggest that the majority of seedlings were established within 3 to 10 yr after fire. Consequently, given the absence of nearby living seed bearers, little (if any) further recruitment can be expected in the even-aged, regenerating populations. According to the tree density comparison (pre-fire vs post-fire), a shift from Picea- to Pinus-dominated communities occurred in most of the sites burned in 1981 or 1983, and in some of the sites burned in 1988 or 1989. The 1988 fire reduced the tree population density by 95% in 10 of the 15 sites; total tree density decreased by at least 75% in 28 out of 40 sites burned in 1989. This suggests that the areas burned in 1988 and 1989 will mainly regenerate as very open forests or lichen-heath communities that are more commonly found in the forest-tundra zone, north of the study area. Fire intensity, short fire interval, and unfavorable climate during and after fires are three plausible mechanisms associated with these post-fire vegetation changes.     

Dormant Season Prescribed Fire as a Management Tool for the Control of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Salix caroliniana</Emphasis> Michx. in a Floodplain Marsh

Expansion of woody species into herbaceous wetlands is a serious concern in wetland management. Prescribed fire is often used as a tool to manage woody species, although many species resprout after fire making control problematic. In this study, we assessed the usefulness of repeated dormant season fires for controlling Salix caroliniana (Michx.) in a floodplain marsh in Florida. Salix is a common shrub in southeastern marshes that resprouts prolifically after fire. We compared stem basal area, stem density, and cover of Salix in three adjacent sites in a floodplain marsh in east central Florida. One site was burned once in February 1997, another site was burned in February 1997 and then again in March 1999 and one site was left unburned. At the unburned site, Salix stem basal area, stem density, and cover increased over the course of the study. In the two burned sites, the first fire destroyed large diameter stems and stimulated production of sprouts. As a result, stem basal area and cover decreased but stem density remained unchanged. The second fire caused a decline in stem density and a further decline in cover. Changes in understory species composition and cover could not be attributed to the fires. Our results suggest that dormant season fires are effective in reducing Salix cover and basal area, and that repeated fires have greater effects than a single fire.     

基于MODIS时序数据的黑龙江流域火烧迹地提取

火烧迹地信息是研究火灾的重要参数和基础数据,也是研究全球生态系统和碳循环扰动的重要依据之一。以受森林火灾影响较为严重的黑龙江流域为研究区,以MODIS时间序列数据为数据源建立了一个分为两阶段的火烧基地提取算法(即首先设定较为严格的提取条件对最有可能发生火灾的像元——核心像元进行提取,然后设定较为宽松的阈值提取距离核心像元一定范围内的火烧像元),对2000—2011年的火烧迹地信息进行了提取,生成了研究区长时间序列火烧迹地分布图,并对其时空分布特征进行了分析。选择黑龙江省为典型验证区对算法精度进行了验证,结果显示算法的整体精度较之以往的算法有了一定程度的提高。     

The effects of fire frequency and grazing on tallgrass prairie productivity and plant composition are mediated through bud bank demography

Periodic fire, grazing, and a variable climate are considered the most important drivers of tallgrass prairie ecosystems, having large impacts on the component species and on ecosystem structure and function. We used long-term experiments at Konza Prairie Biological Station to explore the underlying demographic mechanisms responsible for tallgrass prairie responses to two key ecological drivers: fire and grazing. Our data indicate that belowground bud banks (populations of meristems associated with rhizomes or other perennating organs) mediate tallgrass prairie plant response. Fire and grazing altered rates of belowground bud natality, tiller emergence from the bud bank, and both short-term (fire cycle) and long-term (>15 year) changes in bud bank density. Annual burning increased grass bud banks by 25% and decreased forb bud banks by 125% compared to burning every 4 years. Grazing increased the rate of emergence from the grass bud bank resulting in increased grass stem densities while decreasing grass bud banks compared to ungrazed prairie. By contrast, grazing increased both bud and stem density of forbs in annually burned prairie but grazing had no effect on forb bud or stem density in the 4-year burn frequency treatment. Lastly, the size of the reserve grass bud bank is an excellent predictor of long-term ANPP in tallgrass prairie and also of short-term interannual variation in ANPP associated with fire cycles, supporting our hypothesis that ANPP is strongly regulated by belowground demographic processes. Meristem limitation due to management practices such as different fire frequencies or grazing regimes may constrain tallgrass prairie responses to interannual changes in resource availability. An important consequence is that grasslands with a large bud bank may be the most responsive to future climatic change or other global change phenomena such as nutrient enrichment, and may be most resistant to exotic species invasions.     

Threats and biodiversity in the mediterranean biome

Aim Global conservation assessments recognize the mediterranean biome as a priority for the conservation of the world's biodiversity. To better direct future conservation efforts in the biome, an improved understanding of the location, magnitude and trend of key threats and their relationship with species of conservation importance is needed. Location Mediterranean‐climate regions in California‐Baja California, Chile, South Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean Basin. Methods We undertook a systematic, pan‐regional assessment of threats in the mediterranean biome including human population density, urban area and agriculture. To realize the full implications of these threats on mediterranean biodiversity, we examined their relationship with species of conservation concern: threatened mammals at the global scale and threatened plants at the subecoregional scale in California, USA. Results Across the biome, population density and urban area increased by 13% and agriculture by 1% between 1990 and 2000. Both population density and urban area were greatest in California‐Baja California and least in Australia while, in contrast, agriculture was greatest in Australia and least in California‐Baja California. In all regions lowlands were most affected by the threats analysed, with the exception of population density in the Chilean matorral. Threatened species richness had a significant positive correlation with population density at global and subecoregional scales, while threatened species were found to increase with the amount of urban area and decrease as the amount of natural area and unfragmented core area increased. Main conclusions Threats to mediterranean biodiversity have increased from 1990 to 2000, although patterns vary both across and within the five regions. The need for future conservation efforts is further underlined by the positive correlation between species of conservation concern and the increase in population density over the last decade. Challenges to reducing threats extend beyond those analysed to include human–environmental interactions and their synergistic effects, such as urbanization and invasive species and wildfires.     

Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation

Dynamics of fires in Africa are of critical importance for understanding changes in ecosystem properties and effects on the global carbon cycle. Given increasing fire risk from projected warming on the one hand and a documented human‐driven decline in fires on the other, it is still unknown how the complex interplay between climate and human factors affects recent changes of fires in Africa. Moreover, the impact of recent strong El Niño events on fire dynamics is not yet known. By applying an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method to satellite‐derived fire burned area, we investigated the spatio‐temporal evolution of fires in Africa over 2001–2016 and identified the potential dominant drivers. Our results show an overall decline of fire rates, which is continuous over the time period and mainly caused by cropland expansion in northern sub‐Saharan Africa. However, we also find that years of high precipitation have caused an initial increase in fire rates in southern Africa, which reversed to a decline in later years. This decline is caused by a high frequency of dry years leading to very low fuel loads, suggesting that recent drought causes a general reduction of burned areas, in particular in xeric savannas. In some mesic regions (10°–15°S), solar radiation and increased temperature caused increase in fires. These findings show that climate change overrules the impact of human expansion on fire rates at the continental scale in Africa, reducing the fire risk.     

Near‐future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States

Recent prolonged droughts and catastrophic wildfires in the western United States have raised concerns about the potential for forest mortality to impact forest structure, forest ecosystem services, and the economic vitality of communities in the coming decades. We used the Community Land Model (CLM) to determine forest vulnerability to mortality from drought and fire by the year 2049. We modified CLM to represent 13 major forest types in the western United States and ran simulations at a 4‐km grid resolution, driven with climate projections from two general circulation models under one emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). We developed metrics of vulnerability to short‐term extreme and prolonged drought based on annual allocation to stem growth and net primary productivity. We calculated fire vulnerability based on changes in simulated future area burned relative to historical area burned. Simulated historical drought vulnerability was medium to high in areas with observations of recent drought‐related mortality. Comparisons of observed and simulated historical area burned indicate simulated future fire vulnerability could be underestimated by 3% in the Sierra Nevada and overestimated by 3% in the Rocky Mountains. Projections show that water‐limited forests in the Rocky Mountains, Southwest, and Great Basin regions will be the most vulnerable to future drought‐related mortality, and vulnerability to future fire will be highest in the Sierra Nevada and portions of the Rocky Mountains. High carbon‐density forests in the Pacific coast and western Cascades regions are projected to be the least vulnerable to either drought or fire. Importantly, differences in climate projections lead to only 1% of the domain with conflicting low and high vulnerability to fire and no area with conflicting drought vulnerability. Our drought vulnerability metrics could be incorporated as probabilistic mortality rates in earth system models, enabling more robust estimates of the feedbacks between the land and atmosphere over the 21st century.