P. vivax Malaria and Dengue Fever Co-infection: A Cross-Sectional Study in the Brazilian Amazon

Background

Malaria and dengue are the most prevalent vector-borne diseases worldwide and represent major public health problems. Both are endemic in tropical regions, propitiating co-infection. Only few co-infection cases have been reported around the world, with insufficient data so far to enhance the understanding of the effects of co-infection in the clinical presentation and severity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A cross-sectional study was conducted (2009 to 2011) in hospitalized patients with acute febrile syndrome in the Brazilian Amazon. All patients were submitted to thick blood smear and PCR for Plasmodium sp. detection, ELISA, PCR and NS1 tests for dengue, viral hepatitis, HIV and leptospirosis. In total, 1,578 patients were recruited. Among them, 176 (11.1%) presented P. vivax malaria mono-infection, 584 (37%) dengue fever mono-infection, and 44 (2.8%) were co-infected. Co-infected patients had a higher chance of presenting severe disease (vs. dengue mono-infected), deep bleeding (vs. P. vivax mono-infected), hepatomegaly, and jaundice (vs. dengue mono-infected).

Conclusions/Significance

In endemic areas for dengue and malaria, jaundice (in dengue patients) and spontaneous bleeding (in malaria patients) should raise the suspicion of co-infection. Besides, whenever co-infection is confirmed, we recommend careful monitoring for bleeding and hepatic complications, which may result in a higher chance of severity, despite of the fact that no increased fatality rate was seen in this group.     

Dengue infection in children in Ratchaburi, Thailand: a cohort study. II. Clinical manifestations

Background

Dengue infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases. More data regarding the disease burden and the prevalence of each clinical spectrum among symptomatic infections and the clinical manifestations are needed. This study aims to describe the incidence and clinical manifestations of symptomatic dengue infection in Thai children during 2006 through 2008.

Study Design

This study is a school-based prospective open cohort study with a 9,448 person-year follow-up in children aged 3–14 years. Active surveillance for febrile illnesses was done in the studied subjects. Subjects who had febrile illness were asked to visit the study hospital for clinical and laboratory evaluation, treatment, and serological tests for dengue infection. The clinical data from medical records, diary cards, and data collection forms were collected and analyzed.

Results

Dengue infections were the causes of 12.1% of febrile illnesses attending the hospital, including undifferentiated fever (UF) (49.8%), dengue fever (DF) (39.3%) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) (10.9%). Headache, anorexia, nausea/vomiting and myalgia were common symptoms occurring in more than half of the patients. The more severe dengue spectrum (i.e., DHF) had higher temperature, higher prevalence of nausea/vomiting, abdominal pain, rash, diarrhea, petechiae, hepatomegaly and lower platelet count. DHF cases also had significantly higher prevalence of anorexia, nausea/vomiting and abdominal pain during day 3–6 and diarrhea during day 4–6 of illness. The absence of nausea/vomiting, abdominal pain, diarrhea, petechiae, hepatomegaly and positive tourniquet test may predict non-DHF.

Conclusion

Among symptomatic dengue infection, UF is most common followed by DF and DHF. Some clinical manifestations may be useful to predict the more severe disease (i.e., DHF). This study presents additional information in the clinical spectra of symptomatic dengue infection.     

Serum Proteome and Cytokine Analysis in a Longitudinal Cohort of Adults with Primary Dengue Infection Reveals Predictive Markers of DHF

Background

Infections caused by dengue virus are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Factors that control transition from mild forms of disease such as dengue fever (DF) to more life-threatening forms such as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are poorly understood. Consequently, there are no reliable methods currently available for early triage of DHF patients resulting in significant over-hospitalization.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We have systematically examined the proteome, cytokines and inflammatory markers in sera from 62 adult dengue patients (44 DF; 18 DHF) with primary DENV infection, at three different times of infection representing the early febrile, defervescence and convalescent stages. Using fluorescent bioplex assays, we measured 27 cytokines in these serum samples. Additionally, we used multiple mass spectrometry methods for iTRAQ-based comparative analysis of serum proteome as well as measurements of protein adducts- 3-nitrotyrosine and 3-chlorotyrosine as surrogate measures of free radical activity. Using multiple methods such as OPLS, MRMR and MSVM-RFE for multivariate feature selection and classification, we report molecular markers that allow prediction of primary DHF with sensitivity and specificity of >80%.

Conclusions/Significance

This report constitutes a comprehensive analysis of molecular signatures of dengue disease progression and will help unravel mechanisms of dengue disease progression. Our analysis resulted in the identification of markers that may be useful for early prediction of DHF during the febrile phase. The combination of highly sensitive analytical methods and novel statistical approaches described here forms a robust platform for biomarker discovery.     

IL-1β, IL-6, and RANTES as Biomarkers of Chikungunya Severity

Background

Little is known about the immunopathogenesis of Chikungunya virus. Circulating levels of immune mediators and growth factors were analyzed from patients infected during the first Singaporean Chikungunya fever outbreak in early 2008 to establish biomarkers associated with infection and/or disease severity.

Methods and Findings

Adult patients with laboratory-confirmed Chikungunya fever infection, who were referred to the Communicable Disease Centre/Tan Tock Seng Hospital during the period from January to February 2008, were included in this retrospective study. Plasma fractions were analyzed using a multiplex-microbead immunoassay. Among the patients, the most common clinical features were fever (100%), arthralgia (90%), rash (50%) and conjunctivitis (40%). Profiles of 30 cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors were able to discriminate the clinical forms of Chikungunya from healthy controls, with patients classified as non-severe and severe disease. Levels of 8 plasma cytokines and 4 growth factors were significantly elevated. Statistical analysis showed that an increase in IL-1β, IL-6 and a decrease in RANTES were associated with disease severity.

Conclusions

This is the first comprehensive report on the production of cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors during acute Chikungunya virus infection. Using these biomarkers, we were able to distinguish between mild disease and more severe forms of Chikungunya fever, thus enabling the identification of patients with poor prognosis and monitoring of the disease.     

Invariant NKT Cell Response to Dengue Virus Infection in Human

Background

Dengue viral infection is a global health threat without vaccine or specific treatment. The clinical outcome varies from asymptomatic, mild dengue fever (DF) to severe dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). While adaptive immune responses were found to be detrimental in the dengue pathogenesis, the roles of earlier innate events remain largely uninvestigated. Invariant natural killer T (iNKT) cells represent innate-like T cells that could dictate subsequent adaptive response but their role in human dengue virus infection is not known. We hypothesized that iNKT cells play a role in human dengue infection.

Methods

Blood samples from a well-characterized cohort of children with DF, DHF, in comparison to non-dengue febrile illness (OFI) and healthy controls at various time points were studied. iNKT cells activation were analyzed by the expression of CD69 by flow cytometry. Their cytokine production was then analyzed after α-GalCer stimulation. Further, the CD1d expression on monocytes, and CD69 expression on conventional T cells were measured.

Results

iNKT cells were activated during acute dengue infection. The level of iNKT cell activation associates with the disease severity. Furthermore, these iNKT cells had altered functional response to subsequent ex vivo stimulation with α-GalCer. Moreover, during acute dengue infection, monocytic CD1d expression was also upregulated and conventional T cells also became activated.

Conclusion

iNKT cells might play an early and critical role in the pathogenesis of severe dengue viral infection in human. Targeting iNKT cells and CD1d serve as a potential therapeutic strategy for severe dengue infection in the future.     

Etiology of Severe Non-malaria Febrile Illness in Northern Tanzania: A Prospective Cohort Study

Introduction

The syndrome of fever is a commonly presenting complaint among persons seeking healthcare in low-resource areas, yet the public health community has not approached fever in a comprehensive manner. In many areas, malaria is over-diagnosed, and patients without malaria have poor outcomes.

Methods and Findings

We prospectively studied a cohort of 870 pediatric and adult febrile admissions to two hospitals in northern Tanzania over the period of one year using conventional standard diagnostic tests to establish fever etiology. Malaria was the clinical diagnosis for 528 (60.7%), but was the actual cause of fever in only 14 (1.6%). By contrast, bacterial, mycobacterial, and fungal bloodstream infections accounted for 85 (9.8%), 14 (1.6%), and 25 (2.9%) febrile admissions, respectively. Acute bacterial zoonoses were identified among 118 (26.2%) of febrile admissions; 16 (13.6%) had brucellosis, 40 (33.9%) leptospirosis, 24 (20.3%) had Q fever, 36 (30.5%) had spotted fever group rickettsioses, and 2 (1.8%) had typhus group rickettsioses. In addition, 55 (7.9%) participants had a confirmed acute arbovirus infection, all due to chikungunya. No patient had a bacterial zoonosis or an arbovirus infection included in the admission differential diagnosis.

Conclusions

Malaria was uncommon and over-diagnosed, whereas invasive infections were underappreciated. Bacterial zoonoses and arbovirus infections were highly prevalent yet overlooked. An integrated approach to the syndrome of fever in resource-limited areas is needed to improve patient outcomes and to rationally target disease control efforts.     

Discriminating Malaria from Dengue Fever in Endemic Areas: Clinical and Biological Criteria,Prognostic Score and Utility of the C-Reactive Protein: A Retrospective Matched-Pair Study in French Guiana

Background

Dengue and malaria are two major public health concerns in tropical settings. Although the pathogeneses of these two arthropod-borne diseases differ, their clinical and biological presentations are unspecific. During dengue epidemics, several hundred patients with fever and diffuse pain are weekly admitted at the emergency room. It is difficult to discriminate them from patients presenting malaria attacks. Furthermore, it may be impossible to provide a parasitological microscopic examination for all patients. This study aimed to establish a diagnostic algorithm for communities where dengue fever and malaria occur at some frequency in adults.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A sub-study using the control groups of a case-control study in French Guiana – originally designed to compare dengue and malaria co-infected cases to single infected cases – was performed between 2004 and 2010. In brief, 208 patients with malaria matched to 208 patients with dengue fever were compared in the present study. A predictive score of malaria versus dengue was established using .632 bootstrap procedures. Multivariate analysis showed that male gender, age, tachycardia, anemia, thrombocytopenia, and CRP>5 mg/l were independently associated with malaria. The predictive score using those variables had an AUC of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82–0.89), and the CRP was the preponderant predictive factor. The sensitivity and specificity of CRP>5 mg/L to discriminate malaria from dengue were of 0.995 (95%CI: 0.991–1) and 0.35 (95%CI 0.32–0.39), respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

The clinical and biological score performed relatively well for discriminating cases of dengue versus malaria. Moreover, using only the CRP level turned to be a useful biomarker to discriminate feverish patients at low risk of malaria in an area where both infections exist. It would avoid more than 33% of unnecessary parasitological examinations with a very low risk of missing a malaria attack.     

Dengue infection in children in ratchaburi, Thailand: a cohort study. I. Epidemiology of symptomatic acute dengue infection in children, 2006-2009

Background

There is an urgent need to field test dengue vaccines to determine their role in the control of the disease. Our aims were to study dengue epidemiology and prepare the site for a dengue vaccine efficacy trial.

Methods and Findings

We performed a prospective cohort study of children in primary schools in central Thailand from 2006 through 2009. We assessed the epidemiology of dengue by active fever surveillance for acute febrile illness as detected by school absenteeism and telephone contact of parents, and dengue diagnostic testing. Dengue accounted for 394 (6.74%) of the 5,842 febrile cases identified in 2882, 3104, 2717 and 2312 student person-years over the four years, respectively. Dengue incidence was 1.77% in 2006, 3.58% in 2007, 5.74% in 2008 and 3.29% in 2009. Mean dengue incidence over the 4 years was 3.6%. Dengue virus (DENV) types were determined in 333 (84.5%) of positive specimens; DENV serotype 1 (DENV-1) was the most common (43%), followed by DENV-2 (29%), DENV-3 (20%) and DENV-4 (8%). Disease severity ranged from dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in 42 (10.5%) cases, dengue fever (DF) in 142 (35.5%) cases and undifferentiated fever (UF) in 210 (52.5%) cases. All four DENV serotypes were involved in all disease severity. A majority of cases had secondary DENV infection, 95% in DHF, 88.7% in DF and 81.9% in UF. Two DHF (0.5%) cases had primary DENV-3 infection.

Conclusion

The results illustrate the high incidence of dengue with all four DENV serotypes in primary school children, with approximately 50% of disease manifesting as mild clinical symptoms of UF, not meeting the 1997 WHO criteria for dengue. Severe disease (DHF) occurred in one tenth of cases. Data of this type are required for clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy of dengue vaccines in large scale clinical trials.     

Diagnostic Accuracy of NS1 ELISA and Lateral Flow Rapid Tests for Dengue Sensitivity,Specificity and Relationship to Viraemia and Antibody Responses

Background

Dengue is a public health problem in many countries. Rapid diagnosis of dengue can assist patient triage and management. Detection of the dengue viral protein, NS1, represents a new approach to dengue diagnosis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The sensitivity and specificity of the Platelia NS1 ELISA assay and an NS1 lateral flow rapid test (LFRT) were compared against a gold standard reference diagnostic algorithm in 138 Vietnamese children and adults. Overall, the Platelia NS1 ELISA was modestly more sensitive (82%) than the NS1 LFRT (72%) in confirmed dengue cases. Both ELISA and LFRT assays were more sensitive for primary than secondary dengue, and for specimens collected within 3 days of illness onset relative to later time points. The presence of measurable DENV-reactive IgG and to a lesser extent IgM in the test sample was associated with a significantly lower rate of NS1 detection in both assays. NS1 positivity was associated with the underlying viraemia, as NS1-positive samples had a significantly higher viraemia than NS1-negative samples matched for duration of illness. The Platelia and NS1 LFRT were 100% specific, being negative in all febrile patients without evidence of recent dengue, as well as in patients with enteric fever, malaria, Japanese encephalitis and leptospirosis.

Conclusions/Significance

Collectively, these data suggest NS1 assays deserve inclusion in the diagnostic evaluation of dengue patients, but with due consideration for the limitations in patients who present late in their illness or have a concomitant humoral immune response.     

Predictive Value of Proteinuria in Adult Dengue Severity

Background

Dengue is an important viral infection with different presentations. Predicting disease severity is important in triaging patients requiring hospital care. We aim to study the value of proteinuria in predicting the development of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), utility of urine dipstick test as a rapid prognostic tool.

Methodology and principal findings

Adult patients with undifferentiated fever (n = 293) were prospectively enrolled at the Infectious Disease Research Clinic at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore from January to August 2012. Dengue infection was confirmed in 168 (57%) by dengue RT-PCR or NS1 antigen detection. Dengue cases had median fever duration of 6 days at enrolment. DHF was diagnosed in 34 cases according to the WHO 1997 guideline. Dengue fever (DF) patients were predominantly younger and were mostly seen in the outpatient setting with higher platelet level. Compared to DF, DHF cases had significantly higher peak urine protein creatinine ratio (UPCR) during clinical course (26 vs. 40 mg/mmol; p<0.001). We obtained a UPCR cut-off value of 29 mg/mmol based on maximum AUC in ROC curves of peak UPCR for DF versus DHF, corresponding to 76% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Multivariate analysis with other readily available clinical and laboratory variables increased the AUC to 0.91 with 92% sensitivity and 80% specificity. Neither urine dipstick at initial presentation nor peak urine dipstick value during the entire illness was able to discriminate between DF and DHF.

Conclusions

Proteinuria measured by a laboratory-based UPCR test may be sensitive and specific in prognosticating adult dengue patients.     

Prevalence of Bacterial Febrile Illnesses in Children in Kilosa District,Tanzania

Introduction

Bacterial etiologies of non-malaria febrile illnesses have significantly become important due to high mortality and morbidity, particularly in children. Despite their importance, there are few reports on the epidemiology of these diseases in Tanzania, and the true burden of such illnesses remains unknown. This study aimed to identify the prevalence of leptospirosis, brucellosis, typhoid fever and urinary tract infections and their rate of co-infections with malaria.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted at Kilosa district hospital in Tanzania for 6 months. Febrile children aged from 2–13 years were recruited from the outpatient department. Patients were screened by serological tests such as IgM and IgG ELISA, and microscopic agglutination test.

Results

A total of 370 patients were enrolled; of these 85 (23.0%) had malaria parasites, 43 (11.6%) had presumptive acute leptospirosis and 26/200 (13%) had confirmed leptospirosis. Presumptive acute brucellosis due to B. abortus was identified among 26 (7.0%) of patients while B. melitensis was detected in 57 (15.4%) of the enrolled patients. Presumptive typhoid fever due to S. Typhi was identified in thirty eight (10.3%) of the participants and 69 (18.6%) had urinary tract infections. Patients presented with similar symptoms; therefore, the identification of these diseases could not be done based on clinical ground alone. Co-infections between malaria and bacterial febrile illnesses were observed in 146 patients (39.5%). Although antibacterials and/or anti-malarials were prescribed in most patients, some patients did not receive the appropriate treatment.

Conclusion

The study has underscored the importance of febrile bacterial diseases including zoonoses such as leptospirosis and brucellosis in febrile children, and thus such illnesses should be considered by clinicians in the differential diagnoses of febrile diseases. However, access to diagnostic tests for discrimination of febrile illnesses is needed. This would allow febrile patients to receive the correct diagnoses and facilitation of accurate and prompt treatment.     

Clinical forms of chikungunya in Gabon, 2010

Background

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has caused multiple outbreaks in tropical and temperate areas worldwide, but the clinical and biological features of this disease are poorly described, particularly in Africa. We report a prospective study of clinical and biological features during an outbreak that occurred in Franceville, Gabon in 2010.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We collected, in suspect cases (individuals presenting with at least one of the following symptoms or signs: fever, arthralgias, myalgias, headaches, rash, fatigue, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, bleeding, or jaundice), blood samples, demographic and clinical characteristics and outcome. Hematological and biochemical tests, blood smears for malaria parasites and quantitative PCR for CHIKV then dengue virus were performed. CHIKV+ patients with concomitant malaria and/or dengue were excluded from the study. From May to July 2010, data on 270 laboratory-confirmed CHIK patients were recorded. Fever and arthralgias were reported by respectively 85% and 90% of patients, while myalgias, rash and hemorrhage were noted in 73%, 42% and 2% of patients. The patients were grouped into 4 clinical categories depending on the existence of fever and/or joint pain. On this basis, mixed forms accounted for 78.5% of cases, arthralgic forms 12.6%, febrile forms 6.7% and unusual forms (without fever and arthralgias) 2.2%. No cases of organ failure or death were reported. Elevated liver enzyme and creatinine levels, anemia and lymphocytopenia were the predominant biological abnormalities, and lymphocytopenia was more severe in patients with high viral loads (p = 0.01).

Conclusions/Significance

During CHIK epidemics, some patients may not have classical symptoms. The existence of unusual forms and the absence of severe forms of CHIK call for surveillance to detect any change in pathogenicity.     

Chikungunya Virus-associated Long-term Arthralgia: A 36-month Prospective Longitudinal Study

Background

Arthritogenic alphaviruses, including Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), are responsible for acute fever and arthralgia, but can also lead to chronic symptoms. In 2006, a Chikungunya outbreak occurred in La Réunion Island, during which we constituted a prospective cohort of viremic patients (n = 180) and defined the clinical and biological features of acute infection. Individuals were followed as part of a longitudinal study to investigate in details the long-term outcome of Chikungunya.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Patients were submitted to clinical investigations 4, 6, 14 and 36 months after presentation with acute CHIKV infection. At 36 months, 22 patients with arthralgia and 20 patients without arthralgia were randomly selected from the cohort and consented for blood sampling. During the 3 years following acute infection, 60% of patients had experienced symptoms of arthralgia, with most reporting episodic relapse and recovery periods. Long-term arthralgias were typically polyarthralgia (70%), that were usually symmetrical (90%) and highly incapacitating (77%). They were often associated with local swelling (63%), asthenia (77%) or depression (56%). The age over 35 years and the presence of arthralgia 4 months after the disease onset are risk factors of long-term arthralgia. Patients with long-term arthralgia did not display biological markers typically found in autoimmune or rheumatoid diseases. These data helped define the features of CHIKV-associated chronic arthralgia and permitted an estimation of the economic burden associated with arthralgia.

Conclusions/Significance

This study demonstrates that chronic arthralgia is a frequent complication of acute Chikungunya disease and suggests that it results from a local rather than systemic inflammation.     

The Potential Impact of Improving Appropriate Treatment for Fever on Malaria and Non-Malarial Febrile Illness Management in Under-5s: A Decision-Tree Modelling Approach

Background

As international funding for malaria programmes plateaus, limited resources must be rationally managed for malaria and non-malarial febrile illnesses (NMFI). Given widespread unnecessary treatment of NMFI with first-line antimalarial Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs), our aim was to estimate the effect of health-systems factors on rates of appropriate treatment for fever and on use of ACTs.

Methods

A decision-tree tool was developed to investigate the impact of improving aspects of the fever care-pathway and also evaluate the impact in Tanzania of the revised WHO malaria guidelines advocating diagnostic-led management

Results

Model outputs using baseline parameters suggest 49% malaria cases attending a clinic would receive ACTs (95% Uncertainty Interval:40.6–59.2%) but that 44% (95% UI:35–54.8%) NMFI cases would also receive ACTs. Provision of 100% ACT stock predicted a 28.9% increase in malaria cases treated with ACT, but also an increase in overtreatment of NMFI, with 70% NMFI cases (95% UI:56.4–79.2%) projected to receive ACTs, and thus an overall 13% reduction (95% UI:5–21.6%) in correct management of febrile cases. Modelling increased availability or use of diagnostics had little effect on malaria management outputs, but may significantly reduce NMFI overtreatment. The model predicts the early rollout of revised WHO guidelines in Tanzania may have led to a 35% decrease (95% UI:31.2–39.8%) in NMFI overtreatment, but also a 19.5% reduction (95% UI:11–27.2%), in malaria cases receiving ACTs, due to a potential fourfold decrease in cases that were untested or tested false-negative (42.5% vs.8.9%) and so untreated.

Discussion

Modelling multi-pronged intervention strategies proved most effective to improve malaria treatment without increasing NMFI overtreatment. As malaria transmission declines, health system interventions must be guided by whether the management priority is an increase in malaria cases receiving ACTs (reducing the treatment gap), reducing ACT waste through unnecessary treatment of NMFI or expanding appropriate treatment of all febrile illness.     

Arthropod borne disease: the leading cause of fever in pregnancy on the Thai-Burmese border

Background

Fever in pregnancy is dangerous for both mother and foetus. In the 1980''s malaria was the leading cause of death in pregnant women in refugee camps on the Thai-Burmese border. Artemisinin combination therapy has significantly reduced the incidence of malaria in the population. The remaining causes of fever in pregnancy are not well documented.

Methodology

Pregnant women attending antenatal care, where weekly screening for malaria is routine, were invited to have a comprehensive clinical and laboratory screen if they had fever. Women were admitted to hospital, treated and followed up weekly until delivery. A convalescent serum was collected on day 21. Delivery outcomes were recorded.

Principal Findings

Febrile episodes (n = 438) occurred in 5.0% (409/8,117) of pregnant women attending antenatal clinics from 7-Jan-2004 to 17-May-2006. The main cause was malaria in 55.5% (227/409). A cohort of 203 (49.6% of 409) women had detailed fever investigations and follow up. Arthropod-borne (malaria, rickettsial infections, and dengue) and zoonotic disease (leptospirosis) accounted for nearly half of all febrile illnesses, 47.3% (96/203). Coinfection was observed in 3.9% (8/203) of women, mostly malaria and rickettsia. Pyelonephritis, 19.7% (40/203), was also a common cause of fever. Once malaria, pyelonephritis and acute respiratory illness are excluded by microscopy and/or clinical findings, one-third of the remaining febrile infections will be caused by rickettsia or leptospirosis. Scrub and murine typhus were associated with poor pregnancy outcomes including stillbirth and low birth weight. One woman died (no positive laboratory tests).

Conclusion/Significance

Malaria remains the leading cause of fever in pregnancy on the Thai-Burmese border. Scrub and murine typhus were also important causes of fever associated with poor pregnancy outcomes. Febrile pregnant women on the Thai-Burmese border who do not have malaria, pyelonephritis or respiratory tract infection should be treated with azithromycin, effective for typhus and leptospirosis.     

Decision tree algorithms predict the diagnosis and outcome of dengue fever in the early phase of illness

Background

Dengue is re-emerging throughout the tropical world, causing frequent recurrent epidemics. The initial clinical manifestation of dengue often is confused with other febrile states confounding both clinical management and disease surveillance. Evidence-based triage strategies that identify individuals likely to be in the early stages of dengue illness can direct patient stratification for clinical investigations, management, and virological surveillance. Here we report the identification of algorithms that differentiate dengue from other febrile illnesses in the primary care setting and predict severe disease in adults.

Methods and Findings

A total of 1,200 patients presenting in the first 72 hours of acute febrile illness were recruited and followed up for up to a 4-week period prospectively; 1,012 of these were recruited from Singapore and 188 from Vietnam. Of these, 364 were dengue RT-PCR positive; 173 had dengue fever, 171 had dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 20 had dengue shock syndrome as final diagnosis. Using a C4.5 decision tree classifier for analysis of all clinical, haematological, and virological data, we obtained a diagnostic algorithm that differentiates dengue from non-dengue febrile illness with an accuracy of 84.7%. The algorithm can be used differently in different disease prevalence to yield clinically useful positive and negative predictive values. Furthermore, an algorithm using platelet count, crossover threshold value of a real-time RT-PCR for dengue viral RNA, and presence of pre-existing anti-dengue IgG antibodies in sequential order identified cases with sensitivity and specificity of 78.2% and 80.2%, respectively, that eventually developed thrombocytopenia of 50,000 platelet/mm³ or less, a level previously shown to be associated with haemorrhage and shock in adults with dengue fever.

Conclusion

This study shows a proof-of-concept that decision algorithms using simple clinical and haematological parameters can predict diagnosis and prognosis of dengue disease, a finding that could prove useful in disease management and surveillance.