Age-Specific Malaria Mortality Rates in the KEMRI/CDC Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Western Kenya, 2003–2010

Recent global malaria burden modeling efforts have produced significantly different estimates, particularly in adult malaria mortality. To measure malaria control progress, accurate malaria burden estimates across age groups are necessary. We determined age-specific malaria mortality rates in western Kenya to compare with recent global estimates. We collected data from 148,000 persons in a health and demographic surveillance system from 2003–2010. Standardized verbal autopsies were conducted for all deaths; probable cause of death was assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Annual malaria mortality rates per 1,000 person-years were generated by age group. Trends were analyzed using Poisson regression. From 2003–2010, in children <5 years the malaria mortality rate decreased from 13.2 to 3.7 per 1,000 person-years; the declines were greatest in the first three years of life. In children 5–14 years, the malaria mortality rate remained stable at 0.5 per 1,000 person-years. In persons ≥15 years, the malaria mortality rate decreased from 1.5 to 0.4 per 1,000 person-years. The malaria mortality rates in young children and persons aged ≥15 years decreased dramatically from 2003–2010 in western Kenya, but rates in older children have not declined. Sharp declines in some age groups likely reflect the national scale up of malaria control interventions and rapid expansion of HIV prevention services. These data highlight the importance of age-specific malaria mortality ascertainment and support current strategies to include all age groups in malaria control interventions.     

Surveillance of the Incidence of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) with Sparse Resources: A Simulation Study Using Data from a National Diabetes Registry,Denmark, 1995–2004

We propose two new methods to estimate secular trends in the incidence of a chronic disease from a series of prevalence studies and mortality data. One method is a direct inversion formula, the second method is a least squares estimation. Both methods are validated in a simulation study based on data from a diabetes register. The results of the validation show that the proposed methods may be useful in epidemiological settings with sparse resources, where running a register or a series of follow-up studies is difficult or impossible.     

Little Evidence of Avian or Equine Influenza Virus Infection among a Cohort of Mongolian Adults with Animal Exposures, 2010–2011

Avian (AIV) and equine influenza virus (EIV) have been repeatedly shown to circulate among Mongolia’s migrating birds or domestic horses. In 2009, 439 Mongolian adults, many with occupational exposure to animals, were enrolled in a prospective cohort study of zoonotic influenza transmission. Sera were drawn upon enrollment and again at 12 and 24 months. Participants were contacted monthly for 24 months and queried regarding episodes of acute influenza-like illnesses (ILI). Cohort members confirmed to have acute influenza A infections, permitted respiratory swab collections which were studied with rRT-PCR for influenza A. Serologic assays were performed against equine, avian, and human influenza viruses. Over the 2 yrs of follow-up, 100 ILI investigations in the cohort were conducted. Thirty-six ILI cases (36%) were identified as influenza A infections by rRT-PCR; none yielded evidence for AIV or EIV. Serological examination of 12 mo and 24 mo annual sera revealed 37 participants had detectable antibody titers (≥1∶10) against studied viruses during the course of study follow-up: 21 against A/Equine/Mongolia/01/2008(H3N8); 4 against an avian A/Teal/Hong Kong/w3129(H6N1), 11 against an avian-like A/Hong Kong/1073/1999(H9N2), and 1 against an avian A/Migrating duck/Hong Kong/MPD268/2007(H10N4) virus. However, all such titers were <1∶80 and none were statistically associated with avian or horse exposures. A number of subjects had evidence of seroconversion to zoonotic viruses, but the 4-fold titer changes were again not associated with avian or horse exposures. As elevated antibodies against seasonal influenza viruses were high during the study period, it seems likely that cross-reacting antibodies against seasonal human influenza viruses were a cause of the low-level seroreactivity against AIV or EIV. Despite the presence of AIV and EIV circulating among wild birds and horses in Mongolia, there was little evidence of AIV or EIV infection in this prospective study of Mongolians with animal exposures.     

Risk Factors for Severe Cholera among Children under Five in Rural and Urban Bangladesh, 2000–2008: A Hospital-Based Surveillance Study

Background

Children under five bear the largest cholera burden. We therefore sought to identify modifiable risk factors among Bangladeshi children.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used multivariate Poisson regression to assess risk factors for severe cholera among diarrheal patients presenting at hospitals in Matlab (rural) and Dhaka (urban), Bangladesh. Risk increased with age. Compared to those under one, rural and urban four-year-olds had adjusted risk ratios (aRR) of 4.17 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.43–7.15) and 6.32 (95% CI: 4.63–8.63), respectively. Breastfeeding halved the risk in both rural (aRR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.35–0.67) and urban (aRR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.41–0.62) settings. Rural children’s risk decreased with maternal education (P-trend: <0.001) and increased among those with a family member with diarrhea in the past week (aRR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.22–2.14) and those with prior vitamin A supplementation (aRR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.12–2.43). Urban children whose mothers daily (aRR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.21–0.79) or occasionally (aRR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.36–0.84) read a newspaper experienced reduced risk. Urban children from households with incomes between 34–84 USD/month had a 30% increased risk compared to those from households with incomes >84 USD/month.

Conclusion/Significance

Increasing age, lower socioeconomic status, and lack of breastfeeding are key correlates of increased risk for cholera hospitalization among those under five in rural and urban Bangladesh. In addition, having a family member with diarrhea in the past week was associated with increased risk among rural children. Continued attention should be directed to the promotion of breastfeeding. Further research is needed to elucidate the relationship between maternal education and cholera risk. Renewed research regarding the use of chemoprophylaxis among family members of cholera cases may be warranted in rural endemic settings.     

Patient-Safety-Related Hospital Deaths in England: Thematic Analysis of Incidents Reported to a National Database, 2010–2012

Background

Hospital mortality is increasingly being regarded as a key indicator of patient safety, yet methodologies for assessing mortality are frequently contested and seldom point directly to areas of risk and solutions. The aim of our study was to classify reports of deaths due to unsafe care into broad areas of systemic failure capable of being addressed by stronger policies, procedures, and practices. The deaths were reported to a patient safety incident reporting system after mandatory reporting of such incidents was introduced.

Methods and Findings

The UK National Health Service database was searched for incidents resulting in a reported death of an adult over the period of the study. The study population comprised 2,010 incidents involving patients aged 16 y and over in acute hospital settings. Each incident report was reviewed by two of the authors, and, by scrutinising the structured information together with the free text, a main reason for the harm was identified and recorded as one of 18 incident types. These incident types were then aggregated into six areas of apparent systemic failure: mismanagement of deterioration (35%), failure of prevention (26%), deficient checking and oversight (11%), dysfunctional patient flow (10%), equipment-related errors (6%), and other (12%). The most common incident types were failure to act on or recognise deterioration (23%), inpatient falls (10%), healthcare-associated infections (10%), unexpected per-operative death (6%), and poor or inadequate handover (5%). Analysis of these 2,010 fatal incidents reveals patterns of issues that point to actionable areas for improvement.

Conclusions

Our approach demonstrates the potential utility of patient safety incident reports in identifying areas of service failure and highlights opportunities for corrective action to save lives. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Are reward polymorphisms subject to frequency‐ and density‐dependent selection? Evidence from a monoecious species pollinated by deceit

Abstract Most deceit‐pollinated species involve floral dimorphisms characterized by the presence of rewarding male flowers and nonrewarding female flowers. It has been proposed that this polymorphism establishes the conditions for the action of frequency dependent selection (FDS). The tendency of foraging animals to aggregate in areas of high resource density suggests that pollination efficiency and fruit production may be positively influenced by flower density (density dependent selection, DDS). In this paper we offer a graphical model describing the effects of FDS and DDS on a monoecious species pollinated by deceit. We test the FDS and DDS assumptions and the predictions of the model using field observations and experimental populations of Begonia gracilis in which population sex ratio and flower density were controlled. We found a marked effect of both FDS and DDS on pollinator visitation, fruit‐set, and on the probability of female flowers to setting fruits. We conclude that these two types of selection have had a strong influence on the evolution of deceit‐pollinated species.     

Obesity persistence and duration dependence: Evidence from a cohort of US adults (1985–2010)

This study investigates dynamic patterns of obesity persistence and identifies the determinants of obesity-spell exits and re-entries. We utilize longitudinal data from the NLSY79 covering the period 1985–2010. Non-parametric techniques are applied to investigate the relationship between exit from obesity and spell duration. Multivariate discrete hazard models are also estimated, taking into account duration dependence and observed and time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. In all cases, the probability of exiting obesity is inversely related to the duration of the obesity spell. Without controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, the probability of exit after one wave in obesity is 31.5 per cent; it is reduced to 3.8 per cent after seven or more waves. When time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account, the estimated probabilities are slightly larger and broadly similar (36.8 and 10.3, respectively), which suggests that the identified negative duration dependence is not primarily due to composition effects. The obtained results indicate that public health interventions targeting the newly obese may be particularly effective at reducing incidence of long durations of obesity.     

How Possibly Do Leisure and Social Activities Impact Mental Health of Middle-Aged Adults in Japan?: An Evidence from a National Longitudinal Survey

Objectives

This study aimed to investigate longitudinal relations between leisure and social activities and mental health status, considering the presence or absence of other persons in the activity as an additional variable, among middle-aged adults in Japan. This study used nationally representative data in Japan with a five-year follow-up period.

Methods

This study focused on 16,642 middle-aged adults, age 50–59 at baseline, from a population-based, six-year panel survey conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. To investigate the relations between two leisure activities (‘hobbies or cultural activities’ and ‘exercise or sports’) and four social activities (‘community events’, ‘support for children’, ‘support for elderly individuals’ and ‘other social activities’) at baseline and mental health status at follow-up, multiple logistic regression analysis was used. We also used multiple logistic regression analysis to investigate the association between ways of participating in these activities (‘by oneself’, ‘with others’, or ‘both’ (both ‘by oneself’ and ‘with others’)) at baseline and mental health status at follow-up.

Results

Involvement in both leisure activity categories, but not in social activities, was significantly and positively related to mental health status in both men and women.Furthermore, in men, both ‘hobbies or cultural activities’ and ‘exercise or sports’ were significantly related to mental health status only when conducted ‘with others’. In women, the effects of ‘hobbies or cultural activities’ on mental health status were no differences regardless of the ways of participating, while the result of ‘exercise or sports’ was same as that in men.

Conclusions

Leisure activities appear to benefit mental health status among this age group, whereas specific social activities do not. Moreover, participation in leisure activities would be effective especially if others are present. These findings should be useful for preventing the deterioration of mental health status in middle-aged adults in Japan.     

Do you have to be tall and educated to be a migrant? Evidence from Spanish recruitment records, 1890–1950

We use Spanish military records stemming from the late-19th to the mid-20th century to assess internal migrants’ self-selection. We find that migrants were, on average over the whole period, around one centimeter taller than non-migrants, and in the booming 1920s, the height advantage of movers reached three centimeters. The positive self-selection was larger for migrants originating in poorer provinces and traveling longer distances. A further finding is that migrants were positively selected in terms of literacy and socio-economic status according to their occupation. Professionals were most likely to have migrated internally and farmers least.     

Validity of U.S. Nutritional Surveillance: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Caloric Energy Intake Data, 1971–2010

Importance

Methodological limitations compromise the validity of U.S. nutritional surveillance data and the empirical foundation for formulating dietary guidelines and public health policies.

Objectives

Evaluate the validity of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) caloric intake data throughout its history, and examine trends in the validity of caloric intake estimates as the NHANES dietary measurement protocols evolved.

Design

Validity of data from 28,993 men and 34,369 women, aged 20 to 74 years from NHANES I (1971–1974) through NHANES 2009–2010 was assessed by: calculating physiologically credible energy intake values as the ratio of reported energy intake (rEI) to estimated basal metabolic rate (BMR), and subtracting estimated total energy expenditure (TEE) from NHANES rEI to create ‘disparity values’.

Main Outcome Measures

1) Physiologically credible values expressed as the ratio rEI/BMR and 2) disparity values (rEI–TEE).

Results

The historical rEI/BMR values for men and women were 1.31 and 1.19, (95% CI: 1.30–1.32 and 1.18–1.20), respectively. The historical disparity values for men and women were −281 and −365 kilocalorie-per-day, (95% CI: −299, −264 and −378, −351), respectively. These results are indicative of significant under-reporting. The greatest mean disparity values were −716 kcal/day and −856 kcal/day for obese (i.e., ≥30 kg/m2) men and women, respectively.

Conclusions

Across the 39-year history of the NHANES, EI data on the majority of respondents (67.3% of women and 58.7% of men) were not physiologically plausible. Improvements in measurement protocols after NHANES II led to small decreases in underreporting, artifactual increases in rEI, but only trivial increases in validity in subsequent surveys. The confluence of these results and other methodological limitations suggest that the ability to estimate population trends in caloric intake and generate empirically supported public policy relevant to diet-health relationships from U.S. nutritional surveillance is extremely limited.     

Postnatal Depression among Rural Women in South India: Do Socio-Demographic,Obstetric and Pregnancy Outcome Have a Role to Play?

Introduction

Postnatal depression (PND) is one of the most common psychopathology and is considered as a serious public health issue because of its devastating effects on mother, family, and infant or the child.

Objective

To elicit socio-demographic, obstetric and pregnancy outcome predictors of Postnatal Depression (PND) among rural postnatal women in Karnataka state, India.

Design

Hospital based analytical cross sectional study

Setting

A rural tertiary care hospital of Mandya District, Karnataka state, India.

Sample

PND prevalence based estimated sample of 102 women who came for postnatal follow up from 4th to 10th week of lactation.

Method

Study participants were interviewed using validated kannada version of Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Cut-off score of ≥13 was used as high risk of PND. The percentage of women at risk of PND was estimated, and differences according to socio-demographic, obstetric and pregnancy outcome were described. Logistic regression was applied to identify the independent predictors of PND risk.

Main Outcome Measures

Prevalence, Odds ratio (OR) and adjusted (adj) OR of PND

Results

Prevalence of PND was 31.4% (95% CI 22.7–41.4%). PND showed significant (P<0.05) association with joint family, working women, non-farmer husbands, poverty, female baby and pregnancy complications or known medical illness. In binomial logistic regression poverty (adjOR: 11.95, 95% CI:1.36–105), birth of female baby (adjOR: 3.6, 95% CI:1.26–10.23) and pregnancy complications or known medical illness (adjOR: 17.4, 95% CI:2.5–121.2) remained as independent predictors of PND.

Conclusion

Risk of PND among rural postnatal women was high (31.4%). Birth of female baby, poverty and complications in pregnancy or known medical illness could predict the high risk of PND. PND screening should be an integral part of postnatal care. Capacity building of grass root level workers and feasibility trials for screening PND by them are needed.     

Elevated cardiovascular risk among adults with obstructive and restrictive airway functioning in the United States: a cross-sectional study of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2007–2010

Background

Reasons for the excess risk for cardiovascular disease among people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease remain unclear. Our objective was to examine the cardiovascular risk profile for adults with obstructive and restrictive impairments of lung functioning in a representative sample of adults from the United States.

Methods

We used data from adults aged 20–79 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2007 to 2010 and had a pulmonary function test. The severity of obstructive impairment was defined by adapting the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease criteria.

Results

Among 7249 participants, 80.9% had a normal pulmonary function test, 5.7% had a restrictive impairment, 7.9% had mild obstructive impairment, and 5.5% had moderate or severe/very severe obstructive impairment. Participants with obstructive impairment had high rates of smoking and increased serum concentrations of cotinine. Compared to participants with normal pulmonary functioning, participants with at least moderate obstructive impairment had elevated concentrations of C-reactive protein but lower concentrations of total cholesterol and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Among participants aged 50–74 years, participants with at least a moderate obstructive impairment or a restrictive impairment had an elevated predicted 10-year risk for cardiovascular disease.

Conclusions

The high rates of smoking among adults with impaired pulmonary functioning, particularly those with obstructive impairment, point to a need for aggressive efforts to promote smoking cessation in these adults. In addition, adults with restrictive impairment may require increased attention to and fine-tuning of their cardiovascular risk profile.     

Findings from Integrated Behavioral and Biologic Survey among Males Who Inject Drugs (MWID) — Vietnam, 2009–2010: Evidence of the Need for an Integrated Response to HIV,Hepatitis B Virus,and Hepatitis C Virus

IntroductionGiven the overlapping modes of transmission of HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV), understanding the burden and relationship of these infections is critical for an effective response. Representative data on these infections among males who inject drugs (MWID), the key high-risk population for HIV in Vietnam, are currently lacking.MethodsData and stored specimens from Vietnam’s 2009-2010 Integrated Biologic and Behavioral Survey, a cross-sectional study among high-risk populations, were used for this analysis. Plasma samples were tested for HIV, HBV, and HCV using commercial assays. A questionnaire was administered to provide demographic, behavior, and service-uptake information. Provincial-level analyses were conducted to profile MWID enrollees and to provide estimates on the prevalence of HIV, HBV, and HCV infection.ResultsAmong 3010 MWID sampled across 10 provinces, the median (range) HIV prevalence was 28.1% (1.0%-55.5%). Median prevalence for current HBV infection (HBsAg+) was 14.1% (11.7%-28.0%), for previous exposure to HBV (total anti-HBc+) was 71.4% (49.9%-83.1%), and for current or past HCV infection (HCV Ag/Ab+) was 53.8% (10.9%-80.8%). In adjusted analysis, HBsAg+ (aOR: 2.09, 1.01-4.34) and HCV Ag/Ab+ (aOR: 19.58, 13.07-29.33) status were significantly associated with HIV infection; the association with total anti-HBc+ approached significance (aOR: 1.29, 0.99-1.68).ConclusionThe prevalence and association between HIV, HBV, and HCV are high among MWID in Vietnam. These findings indicate the need for integrated policies and practice that for the surveillance, prevention, screening, and treatment of both HIV and viral hepatitis among MWID in Vietnam.     

Education policies and health inequalities: Evidence from changes in the distribution of Body Mass Index in France, 1981–2003

This paper contributes to the debate over the effectiveness of education policies in reducing overall health inequalities as compared to public health actions directed at the less-educated. Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regressions are used to decompose the contribution of education to the changing distribution of Body Mass Index (BMI) in France, between 1981 and 2003, into a composition effect (the shift in population education due to a massive educational expansion), and a structure effect (a changing educational gradient in BMI). Educational expansion has reduced overall BMI inequality by 3.4% for women and 2.3% for men. However, the structure effect on its own has produced a 10.9% increase in overall inequality for women, due to a steeper education gradient starting from the second quartile of the distribution. This structure effect on overall inequality is also large (7.6%) for men, albeit insignificant as it remains concentrated in the last decile. Educational expansion policies can thus reduce overall BMI inequalities; but attention must still be paid to the BMI gradient in education even for policies addressing overall rather than socioeconomic health inequalities.     

Diarrheal Disease in Rural Mozambique: Burden,Risk Factors and Etiology of Diarrheal Disease among Children Aged 0–59 Months Seeking Care at Health Facilities

BackgroundDiarrheal disease remains a leading cause of illness and death, particularly in low-income countries. Its burden, microbiological causes and risk factors were examined in children aged 0–59 months living in Manhiça, rural southern Mozambique.MethodsTrends of diarrhea-related burden of disease were estimated during the period 2001–2012. A prospective, age-stratified and matched (by age, gender and geographical origin), case-control study was conducted during 2007–2011. Clinical, epidemiology, anthropometric measurement and fecal samples obtained from recruited children were used to estimate moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) weighted attributable fractions.ResultsOver the last decade the incidence of acute diarrhea has dropped by about 80%. Incidence of MSD per 100 child years at risk for the period 2007–2011 was 9.85, 7.73 and 2.10 for children aged 0–11, 12–23 and 24–59 months respectively. By adjusted population attributable fractions, most cases of MSD were due to rotavirus, Cryptosporidium, ETEC ST (ST only or ST/LT), Shigella and Adenovirus 40/41. Washing hands and having facilities to dispose child’s stools were associated with a reduced risk of MSD, while giving stored water to the child was associated with an increased risk of MSD.ConclusionsDespite the predominantly decreasing trends observed throughout the last decade, diarrheal diseases remain today a major cause of morbidity among children aged 0–59 months living in this rural Mozambican area. Rotavirus, cryptosporidium, Shigella, ETEC ST and Adenovirus 40/41 were the most important aetiologies of MSD. Thus, well-known preventive strategies such as washing hands, improving the treatment of stored water, having facilities to dispose children stools, and accelerating the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine should be promoted on a wider scale to reduce the current burden of diarrheal diseases.     

Achieving a “Grand Convergence” in Global Health: Modeling the Technical Inputs,Costs, and Impacts from 2016 to 2030

Background

The Commission on Investing in Health published its report, GlobalHealth2035, in 2013, estimating an investment case for a grand convergence in health outcomes globally. In support of the drafting of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), we estimate what the grand convergence investment case might achieve—and what investment would be required—by 2030.

Methods and Findings

Our projection focuses on a sub-set of low-income (LIC) or lower-middle-income countries (LMIC). We start with a country-based (bottom-up) analysis of the costs and impact of scaling up reproductive, maternal, and child health tools, and select HIV and malaria interventions. We then incorporate global (top-down) analyses of the costs and impacts of scaling up existing tools for tuberculosis, additional HIV interventions, the costs to strengthen health systems, and the costs and benefits from scaling up new health interventions over the time horizon of this forecast. These data are then allocated to individual countries to provide an aggregate projection of potential cost and impact at the country level. Finally, incremental costs of R&D for low-income economies and the costs of addressing NTDs are added to provide a global total cost estimate of the investment scenario.

Results

Compared with a constant coverage scenario, there would be more than 60 million deaths averted in LIC and 70 million deaths averted in LMIC between 2016 and 2030. For the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030, the incremental costs of convergence in LIC would be (US billion) $24.3, $21.8, $24.7, and $27, respectively; in LMIC, the incremental costs would be (US billion) $34.75, $38.9, $48.7, and $56.3, respectively.

Conclusion

Key health outcomes in low- and low-middle income countries can significantly converge with those of wealthier countries by 2030, and the notion of a “grand convergence” may serve as a unifying theme for health indicators in the SDGs.