Diagnostic Value of Run Chart Analysis: Using Likelihood Ratios to Compare Run Chart Rules on Simulated Data Series

Run charts are widely used in healthcare improvement, but there is little consensus on how to interpret them. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the diagnostic properties of different sets of run chart rules. A run chart is a line graph of a quality measure over time. The main purpose of the run chart is to detect process improvement or process degradation, which will turn up as non-random patterns in the distribution of data points around the median. Non-random variation may be identified by simple statistical tests including the presence of unusually long runs of data points on one side of the median or if the graph crosses the median unusually few times. However, there is no general agreement on what defines “unusually long” or “unusually few”. Other tests of questionable value are frequently used as well. Three sets of run chart rules (Anhoej, Perla, and Carey rules) have been published in peer reviewed healthcare journals, but these sets differ significantly in their sensitivity and specificity to non-random variation. In this study I investigate the diagnostic values expressed by likelihood ratios of three sets of run chart rules for detection of shifts in process performance using random data series. The study concludes that the Anhoej rules have good diagnostic properties and are superior to the Perla and the Carey rules.     

On-Call Duty Effects on Sleep-State Physiological Stability in Male Medical Interns

Background

On-call duty among medical interns is characterized by sleep deprivation and stressful working conditions, both of which alter cardiac autonomic modulation. We hypothesized that sleep stability decreased in medical interns during on-call duty. We used cardiopulmonary-coupling (CPC) analysis to test our hypothesis.

Methods

We used electrocardiogram (ECG)-based CPC analysis to quantify physiological parameters of sleep stability in 13 medical interns during on-call and on-call duty-free periods. There were ten 33.5-h on-call duty shifts per month for interns, each followed by 2 on-call duty-free days, over 3 months. Measurements during sleep were collected before, during, and after an on-call shift. Measurements were repeated 3 months later during an on-call duty-free period.

Results

The medical interns had significantly reduced stable sleep, and displayed increased latency to the first epoch of stable sleep during the on-call night shift, compared to the pre-call and on-call duty-free nights. Interns also had significantly increased rapid-eye-movement (REM) sleep during the on-call night shift, compared to the pre-call and on-call duty-free nights.

Conclusion

Medical interns suffer disrupted sleep stability and continuity during on-call night shifts. The ECG-based CPC analysis provides a straightforward means to quantify sleep quality and stability in medical staff performing shift work under stressful conditions.     

The new school absentees reporting system for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection in Japan

Objective

To evaluate the new Japanese School Absentees Reporting System for Infectious Disease (SARSID) for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection in comparison with the National epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Disease (NESID).

Methods

We used data of 53,223 students (97.7%) in Takamatsu city Japan. Data regarding school absentees in SARSID was compared with that in NESID from Oct 13, 2009 to Jan 12, 2010.

Results

Similar trends were observed both in SARSID and NESID. However, the epidemic trend for influenza in SARSID was thought to be more sensitive than that in NESID.

Conclusion

The epidemic trend for influenza among school-aged children could be easily and rapidly assessed by SARSID compared to NESID. SARSID might be useful for detecting the epidemic trend of influenza.     

Treatment-Related Death in Patients with Small-Cell Lung Cancer in Phase III Trials over the Last Two Decades

Introduction

Treatment-related death (TRD) remains a serious problem in small-cell lung cancer (SCLC), despite recent improvements in supportive care. However, few studies have formally assessed time trends in the proportion of TRD over the past two decades. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency and pattern of TRD over time.

Methods

We examined phase 3 trials conducted between 1990 and 2010 to address the role of systemic treatment for SCLC. The time trend was assessed using linear regression analysis.

Results

In total, 97 trials including nearly 25,000 enrolled patients were analyzed. The overall TRD proportion was 2.95%. Regarding the time trend, while it was not statistically significant, it tended to decrease, with a 0.138% decrease per year and 2.76% decrease per two decades. The most common cause of death was febrile neutropenia without any significant time trend in its incidence over the years examined (p = 0.139). However, deaths due to febrile neutropenia as well as all causes in patients treated with non-platinum chemotherapy increased significantly (p = 0.033).

Conclusions

The overall TRD rate has been low, but not negligible, in phase III trials for SCLC over the past two decades.     

Demographic Transition in India: An Evolutionary Interpretation of Population and Health Trends Using ‘Change-Point Analysis’

Background and Rationale

Lack of a robust analytical tool for trend analysis of population and health indicators is the basic rationale of this study. In an effort to fill this gap, this study advances ‘Change-Point analyzer’ as a new analytical tool for assessment of the progress and its pattern in population and health indicators.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The defining feature of ‘change-point analyzer’ is that, it detects subtle changes that are often missed in simple trend line plots and also quantified the volume of change that is not possible in simple trend line plots. A long-term assessment of ‘change-point analyses’ of trends in population and health indicators such as IMR, Population size, TFR, and LEB in India show multiple points of critical changes. Measured change points of demographic and health trends helps in understanding the demographic transitional shifts connecting it to contextual policy shifts. Critical change-points in population and health indicators in India are associated with the evolution of structural changes in population and health policy framework.

Conclusions

This study, therefore, adds significantly to the evolutionary interpretation of critical change-points in long-term trajectories of population and health indicators vis-a-vis population and health policy shifts in India. The results have not only helped in reassessing the historical past and the current demographic transition trajectory but also advanced a new method of assessing the population and health trends which are necessary for robust monitoring of the progress in population and health policies.     

Monitoring Vital Signs: Development of a Modified Early Warning Scoring (Mews) System for General Wards in a Developing Country

Objective

The aim of the study was to develop and validate, by consensus, the construct and content of an observations chart for nurses incorporating a modified early warning scoring (MEWS) system for physiological parameters to be used for bedside monitoring on general wards in a public hospital in South Africa.

Methods

Delphi and modified face-to-face nominal group consensus methods were used to develop and validate a prototype observations chart that incorporated an existing UK MEWS. This informed the development of the Cape Town ward MEWS chart.

Participants

One specialist anaesthesiologist, one emergency medicine specialist, two critical care nurses and eight senior ward nurses with expertise in bedside monitoring (N = 12) were purposively sampled for consensus development of the MEWS. One general surgeon declined and one neurosurgeon replaced the emergency medicine specialist in the final round.

Results

Five consensus rounds achieved ≥70% agreement for cut points in five of seven physiological parameters respiratory and heart rates, systolic BP, temperature and urine output. For conscious level and oxygen saturation a relaxed rule of <70% agreement was applied. A reporting algorithm was established and incorporated in the MEWS chart representing decision rules determining the degree of urgency. Parameters and cut points differed from those in MEWS used in developed countries.

Conclusions

A MEWS for developing countries should record at least seven parameters. Experts from developing countries are best placed to stipulate cut points in physiological parameters. Further research is needed to explore the ability of the MEWS chart to identify physiological and clinical deterioration.     

Associations between rotating night shifts, sleep duration, and telomere length in women

Background

Telomere length has been proposed as a marker of aging. However, our knowledge of lifestyle risk factors determining telomere length is limited.

Methods

We evaluated the associations between years of rotating night shifts, self-reported sleep duration, and telomere length in 4,117 female participants from the Nurses'' Health Study. Telomere length in peripheral blood leukocytes was determined by Real-Time PCR assay. Information on rotating night shifts and sleep duration was collected via questionnaires prior to blood collection. We used multivariable linear regression to investigate the associations between rotating night shifts, sleep duration, and telomere length.

Results

Compared with women in the category (9 hours), those in the lowest category of sleep duration (≤6 hours) had a 0.12 unit decrease in z score after adjustment for age, BMI and cigarette smoking (equivalent to 9-year telomere attrition, P for trend  = 0.05). Significant positive association between sleep duration and telomere length was seen among women under age of 50 (P for trend  = 0.004), but not among those over 50 (P for trend  = 0.33) (P for interaction  = 0.005). In addition, we observed that women with a longer history of rotating night shifts tended to have shorter telomere length, but this relation was not statistically significant (P for trend  = 0.36).

Conclusion

We found that sleep duration was positively associated with telomere length among women under 50 years old. Further research is needed to confirm the observed associations.     

Monte Carlo dose calculation of GZP6 60Co stepping source based on a matrix shift technique

Background

As a routine method for stepping source simulation, a Monte Carlo program is run according to the number of steps and then the summation of dose from each run is taken to obtain total dose distribution. This method is time consuming.

Aim

As an alternative method, a matrix shift based technique was applied to simulate a stepping source for brachytherapy.

Materials and methods

The stepping source of GZP6 brachytherapy unit was simulated. In a matrix shift method, it is assumed that a radiation source is stationary and instead the data matrix is shifted based on the number of steps. In this study, by running MCNPX program for one point and calculation of the dose matrix using the matrix shift method, the isodose curves for the esophageal cancer tumor lengths of 4 and 6 cm were obtained and compared with the isodose curves obtained by running MCNPX programs in each step position separately (15 and 23 steps for esophageal cancer tumor lengths of 4 and 6 cm, respectively).

Results

The difference between the two dose matrixes for the stepping and matrix shift methods based on the average dose differences are 3.85 × 10⁻⁴ Gy and 5.19 × 10⁻⁴ Gy for treatment length of 4 cm and 6 cm, respectively. Dose differences are insignificant and these two methods are equally valid.

Conclusions

The matrix shift method presented in this study can be used for calculation of dose distribution for a brachytherapy stepping source as a quicker tool compared to other routine Monte Carlo based methods.     

Valproic Acid and Fatalities in Children: A Review of Individual Case Safety Reports in VigiBase

Introduction

Valproic acid is an effective first line drug for the treatment of epilepsy. Hepatotoxicity is a rare and potentially fatal adverse reaction for this medicine.

Objective

Firstly to characterise valproic acid reports on children with fatal outcome and secondly to determine reporting over time of hepatotoxicity with fatal outcome.

Methods

Individual case safety reports (ICSRs) for children ≤17 years with valproic acid and fatal outcome were retrieved from the WHO Global ICSR database, VigiBase, in June 2013. Reports were classified into hepatotoxic reactions or other reactions. Shrinkage observed-to-expected ratios were used to explore the relative reporting trend over time and for patient age. The frequency of polytherapy, i.e. reports with more than one antiepileptic medicine, was investigated.

Results

There have been 268 ICSRs with valproic acid and fatal outcome in children, reported from 25 countries since 1977. A total of 156 fatalities were reported with hepatotoxicity, which has been continuously and disproportionally reported over time. There were 31 fatalities with pancreatitis. Other frequently reported events were coma/encephalopathy, seizures, respiratory disorders and coagulopathy. Hepatotoxicity was disproportionally and most commonly reported in children aged 6 years and under (104/156 reports) but affected children of all ages. Polytherapy was significantly more frequently reported for valproic acid with fatal outcome (58%) compared with non-fatal outcome (34%).

Conclusion

Hepatotoxicity remains a considerable problem. The risk appears to be greatest in young children (6 years and below) but can occur at any age. Polytherapy is commonly reported and seems to be a risk factor for hepatotoxicity, pancreatitis and other serious adverse drug reactions with valproic acid.     

High-Resolution Echo-Planar Spectroscopic Imaging of the Human Calf

Background

This study exploits the speed benefits of echo-planar spectroscopic imaging (EPSI) to acquire lipid spectra of skeletal muscle. The main purpose was to develop a high-resolution EPSI technique for clinical MR scanner, to visualise the bulk magnetic susceptibility (BMS) shifts of extra-myocellular lipid (EMCL) spectral lines, and to investigate the feasibility of this method for the assessment of intra-myocellular (IMCL) lipids.

Methods

The study group consisted of six healthy volunteers. A two dimensional EPSI sequence with point-resolved spectroscopy (PRESS) spatial localization was implemented on a 3T clinical MR scanner. Measurements were performed by means of 64×64 spatial matrix and nominal voxel size 3×3×15 mm³. The total net measurement time was 3 min 12 sec for non-water-suppressed (1 acquisition) and 12 min 48 sec for water-suppressed scans (4 acquisitions).

Results

Spectra of the human calf had a very good signal-to-noise ratio and linewidths sufficient to differentiate IMCL resonances from EMCL. The use of a large spatial matrix reduces inter-voxel signal contamination of the strong EMCL signals. Small voxels enabled visualisation of the methylene EMCL spectral line splitting and their BMS shifts up to 0.5 ppm relative to the correspondent IMCL line. The mean soleus muscle IMCL content of our six volunteers was 0.30±0.10 vol% (range 0.18–0.46) or 3.6±1.2 mmol/kg wet weight (range: 2.1–5.4).

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that high-spatial resolution PRESS EPSI of the muscle lipids is feasible on standard clinical scanners.     

Fluorescence-Based Methods for Detecting Caries Lesions: Systematic Review,Meta-Analysis and Sources of Heterogeneity

Background

Fluorescence-based methods have been proposed to aid caries lesion detection. Summarizing and analysing findings of studies about fluorescence-based methods could clarify their real benefits.

Objective

We aimed to perform a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the accuracy of fluorescence-based methods in detecting caries lesions.

Data Source

Two independent reviewers searched PubMed, Embase and Scopus through June 2012 to identify papers/articles published. Other sources were checked to identify non-published literature.

Study Eligibility Criteria, Participants and Diagnostic Methods

The eligibility criteria were studies that: (1) have assessed the accuracy of fluorescence-based methods of detecting caries lesions on occlusal, approximal or smooth surfaces, in both primary or permanent human teeth, in the laboratory or clinical setting; (2) have used a reference standard; and (3) have reported sufficient data relating to the sample size and the accuracy of methods.

Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods

A diagnostic 2×2 table was extracted from included studies to calculate the pooled sensitivity, specificity and overall accuracy parameters (Diagnostic Odds Ratio and Summary Receiver-Operating curve). The analyses were performed separately for each method and different characteristics of the studies. The quality of the studies and heterogeneity were also evaluated.

Results

Seventy five studies met the inclusion criteria from the 434 articles initially identified. The search of the grey or non-published literature did not identify any further studies. In general, the analysis demonstrated that the fluorescence-based method tend to have similar accuracy for all types of teeth, dental surfaces or settings. There was a trend of better performance of fluorescence methods in detecting more advanced caries lesions. We also observed moderate to high heterogeneity and evidenced publication bias.

Conclusions

Fluorescence-based devices have similar overall performance; however, better accuracy in detecting more advanced caries lesions has been observed.     

Elevational ranges of birds on a tropical montane gradient lag behind warming temperatures

Background

Species may respond to a warming climate by moving to higher latitudes or elevations. Shifts in geographic ranges are common responses in temperate regions. For the tropics, latitudinal temperature gradients are shallow; the only escape for species may be to move to higher elevations. There are few data to suggest that they do. Yet, the greatest loss of species from climate disruption may be for tropical montane species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We repeat a historical transect in Peru and find an average upward shift of 49 m for 55 bird species over a 41 year interval. This shift is significantly upward, but also significantly smaller than the 152 m one expects from warming in the region. To estimate the expected shift in elevation we first determined the magnitude of warming in the locality from historical data. Then we used the temperature lapse rate to infer the required shift in altitude to compensate for warming. The range shifts in elevation were similar across different trophic guilds.

Conclusions

Endothermy may provide birds with some flexibility to temperature changes and allow them to move less than expected. Instead of being directly dependent on temperature, birds may be responding to gradual changes in the nature of the habitat or availability of food resources, and presence of competitors. If so, this has important implications for estimates of mountaintop extinctions from climate change.     

Incubation patterns in a central-place forager affect lifetime reproductive success: scaling of patterns from a foraging bout to a lifetime

Background

Long-lived seabirds face a conflict between current and lifelong reproductive success. During incubation shifts, egg neglect is sometimes necessary to avoid starvation, but may compromise the current reproductive attempt. However, factors underlying this decision process are poorly understood. We focus on the ancient murrelet, Synthliboramphus antiquus, an alcid with exceptionally long incubation shift lengths, and test the impact of environmental factors on incubation shift length in relation to reproductive success.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using an information theoretic approach, we show that incubation shift length was a strong predictor of reproductive success for ancient murrelets at Reef Island, Haida Gwaii, British Columbia, Canada during the 2007 and 2008 breeding seasons. The most important factors explaining an individual''s shift length were egg size, wind speed and the length of the mate''s previous shift. Wind speed and tide height were the two most important factors for determining foraging behavior, as measured by dive frequency and depth.

Conclusions/Significance

Our study demonstrates that (i) species-specific reproductive strategies interact with environmental conditions such as wind speed to form multiple incubation patterns and (ii) maintaining regular incubation shifts is an essential component of reproductive success.     

Development of a Fetal Weight Chart Using Serial Trans-Abdominal Ultrasound in an East African Population: A Longitudinal Observational Study

Objective

To produce a fetal weight chart representative of a Tanzanian population, and compare it to weight charts from Sub-Saharan Africa and the developed world.

Methods

A longitudinal observational study in Northeastern Tanzania. Pregnant women were followed throughout pregnancy with serial trans-abdominal ultrasound. All pregnancies with pathology were excluded and a chart representing the optimal growth potential was developed using fetal weights and birth weights. The weight chart was compared to a chart from Congo, a chart representing a white population, and a chart representing a white population but adapted to the study population. The prevalence of SGA was assessed using all four charts.

Results

A total of 2193 weight measurements from 583 fetuses/newborns were included in the fetal weight chart. Our chart had lower percentiles than all the other charts. Most importantly, in the end of pregnancy, the 10^th percentiles deviated substantially causing an overestimation of the true prevalence of SGA newborns if our chart had not been used.

Conclusions

We developed a weight chart representative for a Tanzanian population and provide evidence for the necessity of developing regional specific weight charts for correct identification of SGA. Our weight chart is an important tool that can be used for clinical risk assessments of newborns and for evaluating the effect of intrauterine exposures on fetal and newborn weight.     

Urinary Interleukin-8 Is a Biomarker of Stress in Emergency Physicians,Especially with Advancing Age — The JOBSTRESS* Randomized Trial

Background

Emergency physicians are exposed to greater stress during a 24-hour shift (24 hS) than a 14-hour night shift (14 hS), with an impact lasting several days. Interleukin-8 (IL-8) is postulated to be a chronic stress biomarker. However, no studies have tracked IL-8 over several shifts or used it for monitoring short-term residual stress. The IL-8 response to the shifts may also increase with age. Conveniently, IL-8 can be measured non-intrusively from urine.

Methods

We conducted a shifts-randomized trial comparing 17 emergency physicians’ urinary IL-8 levels during a 24 hS, a 14 hS, and a control day (clerical work on return from leave). Mean levels of IL-8 were compared using a Wilcoxon matched-pairs test. Independent associations of key factors including shifts, stress, and age with IL-8 levels were further assessed in a multivariable generalized estimating equations model.

Results

Mean urinary IL-8 levels almost doubled during and after a 24 hS compared with a 14 hS or a control day. Furthermore, IL-8 levels failed to return to control values at the end of the third day after the shift despite a rest day following the 24 hS. In the multivariable model, engaging in a 24 hS, self-reported stress, and age were independently associated with higher IL-8 levels. A 24 hS significantly increased IL-8 levels by 1.9 ng (p = .007). Similarly, for every unit increase in self-reported stress, there was a 0.11 ng increase in IL-8 levels (p = .003); and for every one year advance in age of physicians, IL-8 levels also increased by 0.11 ng (p = .018).

Conclusion

The 24 hS generated a prolonged response of the immune system. Urinary IL-8 was a strong biomarker of stress under intensive and prolonged demands, both acutely and over time. Because elevated IL-8 levels are associated with cardiovascular disease and negative psychological consequences, we suggest that emergency physicians limit their exposure to 24 hS, especially with advancing age.     

Acute sleep deprivation and circadian misalignment associated with transition onto the first night of work impairs visual selective attention

Background

Overnight operations pose a challenge because our circadian biology promotes sleepiness and dissipates wakefulness at night. Since the circadian effect on cognitive functions magnifies with increasing sleep pressure, cognitive deficits associated with night work are likely to be most acute with extended wakefulness, such as during the transition from a day shift to night shift.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To test this hypothesis we measured selective attention (with visual search), vigilance (with Psychomotor Vigilance Task [PVT]) and alertness (with a visual analog scale) in a shift work simulation protocol, which included four day shifts followed by three night shifts. There was a nocturnal decline in cognitive processes, some of which were most pronounced on the first night shift. The nighttime decrease in visual search sensitivity was most pronounced on the first night compared with subsequent nights (p = .04), and this was accompanied by a trend towards selective attention becoming ‘fast and sloppy’. The nighttime increase in attentional lapses on the PVT was significantly greater on the first night compared to subsequent nights (p<.05) indicating an impaired ability to sustain focus. The nighttime decrease in subjective alertness was also greatest on the first night compared with subsequent nights (p<.05).

Conclusions/Significance

These nocturnal deficits in attention and alertness offer some insight into why occupational errors, accidents, and injuries are pronounced during night work compared to day work. Examination of the nighttime vulnerabilities underlying the deployment of attention can be informative for the design of optimal work schedules and the implementation of effective countermeasures for performance deficits during night work.     

Spatio-temporal history of the disjunct family Tecophilaeaceae: a tale involving the colonization of three Mediterranean-type ecosystems

Background and Aims

Tecophilaeaceae (27 species distributed in eight genera) have a disjunct distribution in California, Chile and southern and tropical mainland Africa. Moreover, although the family mainly occurs in arid ecosystems, it has colonized three Mediterranean-type ecosystems. In this study, the spatio-temporal history of the family is examined using DNA sequence data from six plastid regions.

Methods

Modern methods in divergence time estimation (BEAST), diversification (LTT and GeoSSE) and biogeography (LAGRANGE) are applied to infer the evolutionary history of Tecophilaeaceae. To take into account dating and phylogenetic uncertainty, the biogeographical inferences were run over a set of dated Bayesian trees and the analyses were constrained according to palaeogeographical evidence.

Key Results

The analyses showed that the current distribution and diversification of the family were influenced primarily by the break up of Gondwana, separating the family into two main clades, and the establishment of a Mediterranean climate in Chile, coinciding with the radiation of Conanthera. Finally, unlike many other groups, no shifts in diversification rates were observed associated with the dispersals in the Cape region of South Africa.

Conclusions

Although modest in size, Tecophilaeaceae have a complex spatio-temporal history. The family is now most diverse in arid ecosystems in southern Africa, but is expected to have originated in sub-tropical Africa. It has subsequently colonized Mediterranean-type ecosystems in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, but well before the onset of the Mediterranean climate in these regions. Only one lineage, genus Conanthera, has apparently diversified to any extent under the impetus of a Mediterranean climate.     

Insomnia,Excessive Sleepiness,Excessive Fatigue,Anxiety, Depression and Shift Work Disorder in Nurses Having Less than 11 Hours in-Between Shifts

Study objective

To assess if less than 11 hours off work between work shifts (quick returns) was related to insomnia, sleepiness, fatigue, anxiety, depression and shift work disorder among nurses.

Methods

A questionnaire including established instruments measuring insomnia (Bergen Insomnia Scale), sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale), fatigue (Fatigue Questionnaire), anxiety/depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) and shift work disorder was administered. Among the 1990 Norwegian nurses who participated in the study; 264 nurses had no quick returns, 724 had 1–30 quick returns and 892 had more than 30 quick returns during the past year. 110 nurses did not report the number of quick returns during the past year. The prevalence of insomnia, excessive sleepiness, excessive fatigue, anxiety, depression and shift work disorder was calculated within the three groups of nurses. Crude and adjusted logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the relation between quick returns and such complaints.

Results

We found a significant positive association between quick returns and insomnia, excessive sleepiness, excessive fatigue and shift work disorder. Anxiety and depression were not related to working quick returns.

Conclusions

There is a health hazard associated with quick returns. Further research should aim to investigate if workplace strategies aimed at reducing the number of quick returns may reduce complaints among workers.     

Projecting HIV Transmission in Japan

Background

Little is known about the epidemiology of HIV in Japan, though newly-identified cases amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) show an increasing trend. Predictions of future trends in the HIV epidemic are essential to identify suitable interventions.

Methods

A deterministic, compartmental model was developed that incorporated risk groups, disease stages, and treatment and testing parameters. This model was calibrated against current figures on new infections and run over 30 years to identify trends in prevalence amongst MSM, low-risk men and low-risk women. Multivariate sensitivity analysis was used to estimate sensitivity ranges for all outcomes.

Results

Without new interventions amongst MSM in Japan, HIV prevalence will climb from its current rate of 2.1% to 10.4% (sensitivity range 7.4% to 18.7%), while HIV prevalence among low-risk men and women will likely decline. With small changes in safer sex behavior and testing rates, HIV prevalence can remain stable or even decline amongst MSM.

Conclusions

Japan is at risk of an epidemic of HIV amongst MSM unless significant changes are made to its current public health intervention framework. More research is necessary to understand the key drivers of the epidemic in Japan.     

Quantitative Assessment of Stereotyped and Challenged Locomotion after Lesion of the Striatum: A 3D Kinematic Study in Rats

Background

Although the striatum is in position to regulate motor function, the role of the structure in locomotor behaviour is poorly understood. Therefore, a detailed analysis of locomotion- and obstacle avoidance-related parameters was performed after unilateral lesion of the striatum in rats.

Methods and Results

Using the three dimensional motion capture technology, kinematics of walking and clearing obstacles, head and body orientation were analyzed before and up to 60 days after the lesion. Recordings were performed in treadmill running rats with or without obstacles attached to the treadmill belt. The lesion, which was induced by the direct injection of the mitochondrial toxin malonate into the left caudoputamen resulted in the complete destruction of the dorsal striatum. During the first three days following the lesion, rats were unable to run on the treadmill. Thereafter, rats showed normal looking locomotion, yet the contralesional limbs exhibited changes in length and timing parameters, and were overflexed. Moreover, the head of lesioned rats was orientated towards the side of the lesion, and their postural vertical shifted towards the contralesional side. During obstructed running, the contralesional limbs when they were leading the crossing manoeuvre stepped on the obstacle rather than to overcome obstacle without touching it, yet more frequently with the forelimb than the hindlimb. Unsuccessful crossings appeared to be due to a paw placement farther away from the front of the obstacles, and not to an inappropriate limb elevation. Importantly, deficit in locomotor behaviour did not regress over the time.

Conclusion

Our results argue that the striatum of one hemisphere controls kinematics of contralateral limbs during stereotyped locomotion and plays a prominent role in the selection of the right motor program so that these limbs successfully cross over obstacle.