Preventing extinction and improving conservation status of Vanilla borneensis Rolfe—A rare,endemic and threatened orchid of Assam,India

Vanilla borneensis Rolfe is considered as a rare, endemic and threatened terrestrial climbing orchid of Assam, India. The plant is restricted to only two pockets of Assam with a poor population size. Therefore, conservation of this plant through proper scientific investigation is urgently needed. The present study has as its objectives to study the distribution, standardization of suitable macropropagation methods for reinforcement and reintroduction in suitable wild habitat, as determined by ecological niche modelling (ENM) for the purposes of conservation. For improving the conservation status of the species, potential area and habitat for reintroduction was determined using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modelling algorithm. Seed germination under natural conditions was found to be very poor for which a macropropagation protocol was standardized; plantlets were raised and reinforced to locations where the population size is very small i.e., mean density, frequency of occurrence and abundance in relation to other associated species was 17.77, 14.16 and 0.82 respectively. Macropropagation method standardized here through cutting was found to be more efficient in terms of time and cost. Application of 100 ppm indole −3- butyric acid (IBA) and 40 ppm naphthalene acetic acid (NAA) significantly improved rooting traits. Further, survival rate was measured significantly very high at 73% while 1000 numbers of V. borneensis plantlets were transferred to the field. Present study has improved the population and conservation status of V. borneensis.     

Habitat distribution modelling and reinforcement of Elaeocarpus serratus L. - A threatened tree species of Assam,India for improvement of its conservation status

Elaeocarpus serratus L., commonly known as ‘rudraksh’ referred in the Ayurveda as a wonderful plant for strengthening body constitutions, has been recognized as a threatened plant of Assam, India. Traditionally, rudraksh beads, its bark and leaves are used to cure various ailments like stress, anxiety, depression, nerve pain, epilepsy, migraine, lack of concentration, asthma, hypertension, arthritis and liver diseases. The population stock of the species has been depleting very fast in its natural habitat due to rapid habitat fragmentation and changing climate altering the structural and functional integrity of the plant. Hence, conservation of E. serratus L. with proper scientific investigation to prevent from extinction in its wild habitat is urgently needed. The present study was emphasized with the specific objectives to study the distribution and population status, predication of suitable sites through ENM, standardization of macropropagation methods and reinforcement/reintroduction into the suitable wild habitat to improve conservation status. In the present investigation E. serratus L. was reported in few locations of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh with population sizes of mean density, frequency of occurrence and abundance in relation to other associated species as 0.333, 13.922 and 2.215 respectively. For improving the conservation status, potential area and habitat for reinforcement was predicted using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modelling algorithm. Subsequently, macropropagation protocol was standardized through seed germination and air-layering; saplings were raised and 1050 saplings were reintroduced to the wild habitats selected on the basis of ecological niche modelling. Survival rate was found significantly high as 68%, suggesting that our approach is effective for changing population status and to conserve the plant.     

Habitat mapping,population size and preventing extinction through improving the conservation status of Calamus nambariensis Becc. - an endemic and threatened cane of Assam,India

Cane is one of the important forest products after timber, form an integral part of a rural and tribal population of many of the tropical countries of South East Asia, Africa and America. Calamus nambariensis Becc. has been recognized as endemic and threatened cane to the North East region of India. The plant is restricted to only two pockets of Assam with a poor population size. Therefore, conservation of this plant through proper scientific investigation is utmost necessary. The present investigation has as its objectives to study the distribution, estimation of population size, standardization of suitable micropropagation methods for reintroduction and reinforcement in suitable wild habitat as determined by ecological niche modelling (ENM) for the purposes of conservation. For improving the conservation status of the species, potential area and habitat for reintroduction was determined using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modelling algorithm. The population size in both the site was found to be very poor i.e., mean density, frequency of occurrence and abundance in relation to other associated species was 0.600, 29.26 and 2.307 in Nambor Reserve Forest whereas 0.526, 27.407 and 2.112 respectively in Gibbon Wildlife Sanctuary. Macropropagation of C. nambariensis was standardized here through seed germination which was found to be more efficient in terms of time and cost which revealed 87% germination in treated seeds, followed by 61% only for untreated seeds till 90 days. It was also observed that seedlings in the hilly slope of Gibbon Wildlife Sanctuary (reinforcement) showed high survivability than that of the hilly slop of Lahorijan Reserve Forest (reintroduction). Further, survival rate was measured for 24 months, which revealed significantly very high on an average of 97.85% in both the locations, while 1200 numbers of C. nambariensis plantlets were transferred to the field. The present study could change the population size of C. nambariensis in its natural habitat, proving effective means for preventing extinction and improving conservation status of the plant.     

Niche similarities among white‐eared opossums (Mammalia,Didelphidae): Is ecological niche modelling relevant to setting species limits?

A complex of white‐eared opossums (Didelphis spp.) is distributed across three distinct areas of South America, but recent taxonomic treatments have disagreed regarding species limits in the group. We used ecological niche modelling to test whether ecological niches have been conserved or have diverged among the three forms in this group. Differences in combinations of niche and range were clear; however, when hypotheses of accessible areas for each species were considered, coarse‐grained niche dimensions (i.e. climatic dimensions) were seen not to differ across the complex. We discuss implications of these results for taxonomic recognition of species based on geographic and ecological characteristics and the implications of using ENM approaches to setting species limits. We suggest that ENM should be used to explore speciation mechanisms, rather than being applied to questions of setting species limits.     

Ecological niche modelling as a technique for assessing threats and setting conservation priorities for Asian slow lorises (Primates: Nycticebus)

Aim Data on geographical ranges are essential when defining the conservation status of a species, and in evaluating levels of human disturbance. Where locality data are deficient, presence‐only ecological niche modelling (ENM) can provide insights into a species’ potential distribution, and can aid in conservation planning. Presence‐only ENM is especially important for rare, cryptic and nocturnal species, where absence is difficult to define. Here we applied ENM to carry out an anthropogenic risk assessment and set conservation priorities for three threatened species of Asian slow loris (Primates: Nycticebus). Location Borneo, Java and Sumatra, Southeast Asia. Methods Distribution models were built using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ENM. We input 20 environmental variables comprising temperature, precipitation and altitude, along with species locality data. We clipped predicted distributions to forest cover and altitudinal data to generate remnant distributions. These were then applied to protected area (PA) and human land‐use data, using specific criteria to define low‐, medium‐ or high‐risk areas. These data were analysed to pinpoint priority study sites, suitable reintroduction zones and protected area extensions. Results A jackknife validation method indicated highly significant models for all three species with small sample sizes (n = 10 to 23 occurrences). The distribution models represented high habitat suitability within each species’ geographical range. High‐risk areas were most prevalent for the Javan slow loris (Nycticebus javanicus) on Java, with the highest proportion of low‐risk areas for the Bornean slow loris (N. menagensis) on Borneo. Eighteen PA extensions and 23 priority survey sites were identified across the study region. Main conclusions Discriminating areas of high habitat suitability lays the foundations for planning field studies and conservation initiatives. This study highlights potential reintroduction zones that will minimize anthropogenic threats to animals that are released. These data reiterate the conclusion of previous research, showing MaxEnt is a viable technique for modelling species distributions with small sample sizes.     

Predicting the distribution of Sasquatch in western North America: anything goes with ecological niche modelling

The availability of user-friendly software and publicly available biodiversity databases has led to a rapid increase in the use of ecological niche modelling to predict species distributions. A potential source of error in publicly available data that may affect the accuracy of ecological niche models (ENMs), and one that is difficult to correct for, is incorrect (or incomplete) taxonomy. Here we remind researchers of the need for careful evaluation of database records prior to use in modelling, especially when the presence of cryptic species is suspected or many records are based on indirect evidence. To draw attention to this potential problem, we construct ENMs for the North American Sasquatch (i.e. Bigfoot). Specifically, we use a large database of georeferenced putative sightings and footprints for Sasquatch in western North America, demonstrating how convincing environmentally predicted distributions of a taxon's potential range can be generated from questionable site-occurrence data. We compare the distribution of Bigfoot with an ENM for the black bear, Ursus americanus , and suggest that many sightings of this cryptozoid may be cases of mistaken identity.     

Late Pleistocene speciation of three closely related tree peonies endemic to the Qinling–Daba Mountains,a major glacial refugium in Central China

Determining the factors promoting speciation is a major task in ecological and evolutionary research and can be aided by phylogeographic analysis. The Qinling–Daba Mountains (QDM) located in central China form an important geographic barrier between southern subtropical and northern temperate regions, and exhibit complex topography, climatic, and ecological diversity. Surprisingly, few phylogeographic analyses and studies of plant speciation in this region have been conducted. To address this issue, we investigated the genetic divergence and evolutionary histories of three closely related tree peony species (Paeonia qiui, P. jishanensis, and P. rockii) endemic to the QDM. Forty populations of the three tree peony species were genotyped using 22 nuclear simple sequence repeat markers (nSSRs) and three chloroplast DNA sequences to assess genetic structure and phylogenetic relationships, supplemented by morphological characterization and ecological niche modeling (ENM). Morphological and molecular genetic analyses showed the three species to be clearly differentiated from each other. In addition, coalescent analyses using DIYABC conducted on nSSR variation indicated that the species diverged from each other in the late Pleistocene, while ecological niche modeling (ENM) suggested they occupied a larger area during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than at present. The combined genetic evidence from nuclear and chloroplast DNA and the results of ENM indicate that each species persisted through the late Pleistocene in multiple refugia in the Qinling, Daba, and Taihang Mountains with divergence favored by restricted gene flow caused by geographic isolation, ecological divergence, and limited pollen and seed dispersal. Our study contributes to a growing understanding of the origin and population structure of tree peonies and provides insights into the high level of plant endemism present in the Qinling–Daba Mountains of Central China.     

Identifying glacial refugia in a geographic parthenogen using palaeoclimate modelling and phylogeography: the New Zealand stick insect Argosarchus horridus (White)

We have used phylogeographic analysis of mitochondrial DNA (COI and COII genes) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to reconstruct the population history of Argosarchus horridus (White), a widespread species of New Zealand stick insect. These data were used to address outstanding questions on the role of glacial refugia in determining the distribution and genetic structure of New Zealand species. Phylogeographic analysis shows a general pattern of high diversity in upper North Island and reduced diversity in lower North Island and South Island. The ENM indicates that during the last glacial maximum, A. horridus was largely restricted to refugia around coastal areas of North Island. The ENM also suggests refugia on the northeast coast of South Island and southeast coast of North Island and this prediction is verified by phylogeographic analysis, which shows a clade restricted to this region. Argosarchus horridus is also most likely a geographic parthenogen where males are much rarer at higher latitudes. The higher levels of genetic variation in northern, bisexual populations suggest southern and largely unisexual populations originated from southwardly expanding parthenogenetic lineages. Bayesian skyline analysis also provides support for a recent population size increase consistent with a large increase in geographic distribution in the late Pleistocene. These results exemplify the utility of integrating ENM and phylogeographic analysis in testing hypotheses on the origin of geographic parthenogenesis and effects of Pleistocene environmental change on biodiversity.     

Glacial cycles drive rapid divergence of cryptic field vole species

Understanding the factors that contribute to the generation of reproductively isolated forms is a fundamental goal of evolutionary biology. Cryptic species are an especially interesting challenge to study in this context since they lack obvious morphological differentiation that provides clues to adaptive divergence that may drive reproductive isolation. Geographical isolation in refugial areas during glacial cycling is known to be important for generating genetically divergent populations, but its role in the origination of new species is still not fully understood and likely to be situation dependent. We combine analysis of 35,434 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with environmental niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genomic and ecological divergence in three cryptic species formerly classified as the field vole (Microtus agrestis). The SNPs demonstrate high genomic divergence (pairwise F_ST values of 0.45–0.72) and little evidence of gene flow among the three field vole cryptic species, and we argue that genetic drift may have been a particularly important mechanism for divergence in the group. The ENM reveals three areas as potential glacial refugia for the cryptic species and differing climatic niches, although with spatial overlap between species pairs. This evidence underscores the role that glacial cycling has in promoting genetic differentiation and reproductive isolation by subdivision into disjunct distributions at glacial maxima in areas relatively close to ice sheets. Future investigation of the intrinsic barriers to gene flow between the field vole cryptic species is required to fully assess the mechanisms that contribute to reproductive isolation. In addition, the Portuguese field vole (M. rozianus) shows a high inbreeding coefficient and a restricted climatic niche, and warrants investigation into its conservation status.     

Do Ecological Niche Model Predictions Reflect the Adaptive Landscape of Species?: A Test Using Myristica malabarica Lam., an Endemic Tree in the Western Ghats,India

Ecological niche models (ENM) have become a popular tool to define and predict the “ecological niche” of a species. An implicit assumption of the ENMs is that the predicted ecological niche of a species actually reflects the adaptive landscape of the species. Thus in sites predicted to be highly suitable, species would have maximum fitness compared to in sites predicted to be poorly suitable. As yet there are very few attempts to address this assumption. Here we evaluate this assumption. We used Bioclim (DIVA GIS version 7.3) and Maxent (version 3.3.2) to predict the habitat suitability of Myristica malabarica Lam., an economically important tree occurring in the Western Ghats, India. We located populations of the trees naturally occurring in different habitat suitability regimes (from highly suitable to poorly suitable) and evaluated them for their regeneration ability and genetic diversity. We also evaluated them for two plant functional traits, fluctuating asymmetry – an index of genetic homeostasis, and specific leaf weight – an index of primary productivity, often assumed to be good surrogates of fitness. We show a significant positive correlation between the predicted habitat quality and plant functional traits, regeneration index and genetic diversity of populations. Populations at sites predicted to be highly suitable had a higher regeneration and gene diversity compared to populations in sites predicted to be poor or unsuitable. Further, individuals in the highly suitable sites exhibited significantly less fluctuating asymmetry and significantly higher specific leaf weight compared to individuals in the poorly suitable habitats. These results for the first time provide an explicit test of the ENM with respect to the plant functional traits, regeneration ability and genetic diversity of populations along a habitat suitability gradient. We discuss the implication of these resultsfor designing viable species conservation and restoration programs.     

Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector''s ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys'' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.     

The identification and conservation of climate refugia for two Colombian endemic titi (Plecturocebus) monkeys

Natural resource managers face the challenge of developing conservation plans for key species and given that anthropogenic climate change (CC) effects on biodiversity are becoming increasingly evident, the new challenge is to properly incorporate CC adaptation strategies into such plans. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the potential CC effects on the climatically suitable areas for two Colombian endemic titi monkeys Plecturocebus ornatus and P. caquetensis and to identify the prospective climate refugia as macro-ecological adaptation strategies for each species. A detailed ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach was applied with the maximum entropy algorithm, using presence records and different sets of bioclimatic variables describing baseline (1960–1990) and future climates (∼2070). Models of future climatic suitability were generated using projections of variables under a stabilization (RCP4.5) and business as usual (RCP8.5) scenarios with data from two general circulation models (GCMs) describing storylines of increasing (CESM1_CAM5) and decreasing (CSIRO_ACCESS1_3) rainfall patterns. The results for both species indicate that in a warmer future, opposite rainfall patterns and choice of the bioclimatic variables may lead to divergent responses on the extent and geographic distribution of their climatic niche, which varied from regions gaining, losing, and retaining suitability in potential climate refugia. Moreover, CC represents a serious threat for P. caquetensis and P. ornatus since their ranges may be largely exposed to novel climates. Their baseline climatic suitability area is projected to shrink and shift to higher elevations in the Andes mountains, and the climate refugia identified for both species are poorly covered by protected areas. Therefore, the climate refugia identified in this work and the management recommendations offered should be considered by species conservation plans to contribute to the selection of priority regions for conservation actions. The modeling approach reveals the uncertainties arising from the selection of bioclimatic variables and GCMs in ENM, which can be replicated to identify climate refugia targeting different species of conservation concern.     

Iterative species distribution modelling and ground validation in endemism research: an Alpine jumping bristletail example

Endemic species play an important role in conservation ecology. However, knowledge of the real distribution and ecology is still scarce for many endemics. The aims of this study were to predict the distribution of the short-range endemic Alpine jumping bristletail Machilis pallida; to evaluate the actual level of endemism via ground validation using an iterative approach for testing the models in field trips and increasing the quality of the prediction step by step; and to test the potential of species distribution modelling for increasing the knowledge about the ecological niche. Based on seven known locations of M. pallida, we used species distribution modelling via Maxent. After a set of seven field trips a new model was built if new locations were found. Three such iterations were performed to increase model quality. We discovered four new locations of M. pallida, increasing the area of known distribution from 470 to 4,890?km². The distribution of M. pallida is thus wider than formerly known, but our results support Eastern Alpine endemism of the species. The knowledge about the ecological niche could be increased due to the newly found locations. Our study showcases the potential of the iterative approach of modelling and ground validation to evaluate the actual level of endemism and the ecological niche in Alpine species and beyond.     

Modelled spatial distribution of marine fish and projected modifications in the North Atlantic Ocean

The objectives of this work were to examine the past, current and potential influence of global climate change on the spatial distribution of some commercially exploited fish and to evaluate a recently proposed new ecological niche model (ENM) called nonparametric probabilistic ecological niche model (NPPEN). This new technique is based on a modified version of the test called Multiple Response Permutation Procedure (MRPP) using the generalized Mahalanobis distance. The technique was applied in the extratropical regions of the North Atlantic Ocean on eight commercially exploited fish species using three environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, bathymetry and sea surface salinity). The numerical procedure and the model allowed a better characterization of the niche (sensu Hutchinson) and an improved modelling of the spatial distribution of the species. Furthermore, the technique appeared to be robust to incomplete or bimodal training sets. Despite some potential limitations related to the choice of the climatic scenarios (A2 and B2), the type of physical model (ECHAM 4) and the absence of consideration of biotic interactions, modelled changes in species distribution explained some current observed shifts in dominance that occurred in the North Atlantic sector, and particularly in the North Sea. Although projected changes suggest a poleward movement of species, our results indicate that some species may not be able to track their climatic envelope and that climate change may have a prominent influence on fish distribution during this century. The phenomenon is likely to trigger locally major changes in the dominance of species with likely implications for socio‐economical systems. In this way, ENMs might provide a new management tool against which changes in the resource might be better anticipated.     

Unveiling the Conservation Biogeography of a Data-Deficient Endangered Bird Species under Climate Change

It remains a challenge to identify the geographical patterns and underlying environmental associations of species with unique ecological niches and distinct behaviors. This in turn hinders our understanding of the ecology as well as effective conservation management of threatened species. The white-eared night heron (Gorsachius magnificus) is a non-migratory nocturnal bird species that has a patchy distribution in the mountainous forests of East Asia. It is currently categorized as “Endangered” on the IUCN Red List, primarily due to its restricted range and fragmented habitat. To improve our knowledge of the biogeography and conservation of this species, we modeled the geographical pattern of its suitable habitat and evaluated the potential impacts of climate change using ecological niche modeling with a maximum entropy approach implemented in Maxent. Our results indicated that the amount of suitable habitat in all of East Asia was about 130 000 km², which can be spatially subdivided into several mountain ranges in southern and southwestern China and northern Vietnam. The extent of suitable habitat range may shrink by more than 35% under a predicted changing climate when assuming the most pessimistic condition of dispersal, while some more suitable habitat would be available if the heron could disperse unrestrainedly. The significant future changes in habitat suitability suggested for Gorsachius magnificus urge caution in any downgrading of Red List status that may be considered. Our results also discern potentially suitable areas for future survey efforts on new populations. Overall, this study demonstrates that ecological niche modeling offers an important tool for evaluating the habitat suitability and potential impacts of climate change on an enigmatic and endangered species based on limited presence data.     

Phylogeography and ecological niche modelling implicate coastal refugia and trans‐alpine dispersal of a New Zealand fungus beetle

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) severely restricted forest ecosystems on New Zealand’s South Island, but the extent of LGM distribution for forest species is still poorly understood. We used mitochondrial DNA phylogeography (COI) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to identify LGM refugia for the mycophagous beetle Agyrtodes labralis (Leiodidae), a forest edge species widely distributed in the South Island. Both the phylogenetic analyses and the ENM indicate that A. labralis refuged in Kaikoura, Nelson, and along much of the South Island’s west coast. Phylogeography of this species indicates that recolonization of the largely deforested east and southeast South Island occurred in a west–east direction, with populations moving through the Southern Alps, and that the northern refugia participated little in interglacial population expansion. This contradicts published studies of other New Zealand species, in which recolonization occurs in a north–south fashion from many of the same refugia.     

Identification of evolutionarily significant units in the Cuban endemic damselfly <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hypolestes trinitatis</Emphasis> (Odonata: Hypolestidae)

Species classification may not reflect the underlying/cryptic genetic diversity which should otherwise be conserved as it represents the potential of populations to evolve and adapt. The identification of evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) allows cryptic genetic diversity to be taken into account when designating conservation priorities. Here, we used mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences integrated with ecological niche models (ENM) to identify ESUs in Hypolestes trinitatis, a threatened Cuban endemic damselfly species. We found that this species comprises two distinct genetic groups in Central and Eastern Cuba respectively, which are also geographically isolated, as shown by ENM. Therefore, we propose these groups to be considered as different ESUs. According with their extent of occurrence, number of locations and inferred decline of habitat extent and quality, Central and Eastern ESUs qualify as Endangered [EN B1b(iii)] and Vulnerable [VU B1b(iii)], respectively.     

Using ecological niche modelling to evaluate niche stability in deep time

Aim To investigate relative niche stability in species responses to various types of environmental pressure (biotic and abiotic) on geological time‐scales using the fossil record. Location The case study focuses on Late Ordovician articulate brachiopods of the Cincinnati Arch in eastern North America. Methods Species niches were modelled for a suite of fossil brachiopod species based on five environmental variables inferred from sedimentary parameters using GARP and Maxent . Niche stability was assessed by comparison of (1) the degree of overlap of species distribution models developed for a time‐slice and those generated by projecting niche models of the previous time‐slice onto environmental layers of a second time‐slice using GARP and Maxent , (2) Schoener’s D statistic, and (3) the similarity of the contribution of each environmental parameter within Maxent niche models between adjacent time‐slices. Results Late Ordovician brachiopod species conserved their niches with high fidelity during intervals of gradual environmental change but responded to inter‐basinal species invasions through niche evolution. Both native and invasive species exhibited similar levels of niche evolution in the invasion and post‐invasion intervals. Niche evolution was related mostly to decreased variance within the former ecological niche parameters rather than to shifts to new ecospace. Main conclusions Although the species examined exhibited morphological stasis during the study interval, high levels of niche conservatism were observed only during intervals of gradual environmental change. Rapid environmental change, notably inter‐basinal species invasions, resulted in high levels of niche evolution among the focal taxa. Both native and invasive species responded with similar levels of niche evolution during the invasion interval and subsequent environmental reorganization. The assumption of complete niche conservatism frequently employed in ecological niche modelling (ENM) analyses to forecast or hindcast species geographical distributions is more likely to be accurate for climate change studies than for invasive species analyses over geological time‐scales.     

Effect of Climate Change on Invasion Risk of Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica Férussac, 1821: Achatinidae) in India

The Giant African Snail (Achatina fulica) is considered to be one the world’s 100 worst invasive alien species. The snail has an impact on native biodiversity, and on agricultural and horticultural crops. In India, it is known to feed on more than fifty species of native plants and agricultural crops and also outcompetes the native snails. It was introduced into India in 1847 and since then it has spread all across the country. In this paper, we use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the distribution pattern of Giant African Snail (GAS) under different climate change scenarios. The niche modeling results indicate that under the current climate scenario, Eastern India, peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are at high risk of invasion. The three different future climate scenarios show that there is no significant change in the geographical distribution of invasion prone areas. However, certain currently invaded areas will be more prone to invasion in the future. These regions include parts of Bihar, Southern Karnataka, parts of Gujarat and Assam. The Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands are highly vulnerable to invasion under changed climate. The Central Indian region is at low risk due to high temperature and low rainfall. An understanding of the invasion pattern can help in better management of this invasive species and also in formulating policies for its control.     

Narrow endemics to Mediterranean islands: Moderate genetic diversity but narrow climatic niche of the ancient,critically endangered Naufraga (Apiaceae)

Narrow endemics constitute the cornerstone of Mediterranean plant diversity. Naufraga balearica (Apiaceae) is a critically endangered, extremely narrow endemic plant from the western Mediterranean island of Majorca. Because the species belongs to a monotypic genus, N. balearica was hypothesized to be a palaeoendemism. Here we conducted phylogenetic dating, population genetic and climatic niche analyses in order to understand the evolutionary history and conservation perspectives of this flagship species. Phylogenetic dating analysis of nuclear and plastid DNA sequences revealed a late Miocene to early Pliocene divergence between Naufraga and its sister genus Apium, supporting the palaeoendemic status of the former. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers and plastid DNA sequences of the five Naufraga populations revealed moderate genetic diversity. This diversity is in line with that of other palaeoendemisms from western Mediterranean islands, as revealed by a comparison with 22 other narrow endemic species from this region. Despite the fact that all Naufraga populations are located at a maximum distance of 10 km in a straight line, a strikingly strong population differentiation was found for AFLP markers, which is explained by long-term isolation likely related to short-range pollination and dispersal strategies of the species. While the species is not genetically impoverished, species distribution modelling and microclimatic monitoring revealed that narrow ecological requirements underlie the current extreme rarity of Naufraga and may jeopardize its long-term survival. Our results indicate that a multidisciplinary approach provides powerful tools to develop conservation strategies for evolutionarily singular lineages.