Rain,rats and pythons: Climate‐driven population dynamics of predators and prey in tropical Australia

Abstract: All natural populations fluctuate in abundance and age structure through time; understanding why they do so is a critical step towards their effective management and conservation. However, the long‐term data sets needed for such an understanding are rarely available, especially for tropical organisms. A 17‐year capture‐mark–recapture study yielded detailed information on the demography of water pythons (Liasis fuscus) and their main prey, the dusky rat (Rattus colletti), on the Adelaide River flood plain in tropical Australia. The link between annual rainfall patterns and rat demography was highly non‐linear. Rat numbers were low during years with low and high rainfall at the end of the wet season (April). Numbers of both predators and prey fluctuated considerably among years. Annual fluctuations in rat numbers generated a corresponding variation in rates of female python reproduction, python body condition and survival. Although variation in recruitment, survival and prey abundance all had a significant impact on annual fluctuations in python numbers, our analyses suggest that recruitment constituted the main determinant in driving the population dynamics of these large tropical predators. In combination with our other studies on this system, the data show that population dynamics of the water python population is ultimately driven by annual variation in rainfall, mediated via shifts in prey availability. The water pythons and the dusky rats of the Adelaide River flood plain thus demonstrate an unusually clear and direct link between an abiotic factor (rainfall) and predator–prey population dynamics.     

Invertebrate prey availability limits reproductive success but not breeding population size in suburban House Sparrows Passer domesticus

Factors affecting avian demography and abundance in urban landscapes are poorly understood and this hinders attempts to manage urban bird communities. Several recent studies indicate that lack of invertebrate prey in urban landscapes may constrain avian productivity and fitness relative to that in other habitats. House Sparrow Passer domesticus populations have undergone large declines in many European urban centres and inadequate reproductive success linked to invertebrate availability has been postulated as a potential cause of these declines. We conducted a replicated supplementary feeding experiment to test whether the availability of invertebrate prey limits the breeding success and adult abundance (colony size) of House Sparrows in suburban London, where House Sparrow populations declined by 60% during the decade preceding our study. Daily mealworm provision over two successive breeding seasons, sufficient to provide 82% of chick energy requirements of House Sparrow pairs nesting within 50 m of feeders, had a large positive impact on the abundance of recently fledged birds (+62%), but only a small positive impact, limited mainly to small colonies, on the overall abundance of territorial males. Colony growth was only weakly related to fledgling abundance in the previous year and did not appear to be constrained by nest‐site availability. Conservation interventions that enhance invertebrate availability for suburban House Sparrows may increase reproductive success but are unlikely, on their own, to lead to population growth or recovery.     

Variation in the diet of the viperine snake Natvix mama in relation to prey availability

The diet of the viperine snake was compared with food availability in the Ebro Delta, a wetland largely occupied by rice fields, in 1990 and 1991. Snake selection of prey type and size was studied seasonally and by snake group: males, females and immature snakes. Overall, feeding activity (percentage of individuals with prey and number of prey per stomach) increased with food availability. Diet analysis showed that viperine snakes mainly foraged on the green frog Rana perezi (adults and tadpoles) and the carp Cyprinus earpio. Conversely, viperine snakes rejected the mosquito fish Gambusia holbroki which is the most abundant species in autumn, when Natrix maura has a low feeding activity. Statistical comparisons between viperine snake diet and prey availability showed that males selected small carp, immature snakes selected tadpoles and, in spring, females selected frogs. The selection of small carp by males may reflect a sexual divergence of trophic niche related to sexual size dimorphism, as females are larger than males. As tadpoles are presumably easier to catch than fish, tadpole selection by immature individuals may reflect variance in capture abilities. In spring, the selection of frogs by females overlapped with vitellogenesis, suggesting that females compensate for the cost of reproduction by selecting green frogs, which have a greater biomass and higher energy content than fish. Carps eaten in spring were smaller than in summer. Moreover, in summer viperine snakes selected smaller carp than the available mean size. This divergent tendency between carp size selection and carp size availability reveals how seasonal diet shifts in prey size selection may be a response to an increase in prey size.     

Effects of vole fluctuations on the population dynamics of the barn owl <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tyto alba</Emphasis>

Many predator species feed on prey that fluctuates in abundance from year to year. Birds of prey can face large fluctuations in food abundance i.e. small mammals, especially voles. These annual changes in prey abundance strongly affect the reproductive success and mortality of the individual predators and thus can be expected to influence their population dynamics and persistence. The barn owl, for example, shows large fluctuations in breeding success that correlate with the dynamics in voles, their main prey species. Analysis of the impact of fluctuations in vole abundance (their amplitude, peaks and lows, cycle length and regularity) with a simple predator prey model parameterized with literature data indicates population persistence is especially affected by years with low vole abundance. In these years the population can decline to low owl numbers such that the ensuing peak vole years cannot be exploited. This result is independent of the length and regularity of vole fluctuations. The relevance of this result for conservation of the barn owl and other birds of prey that show a numerical response to fluctuating prey species is discussed.     

Modeling the Fear Effect in Predator–Prey Interactions with Adaptive Avoidance of Predators

Recent field experiments on vertebrates showed that the mere presence of a predator would cause a dramatic change of prey demography. Fear of predators increases the survival probability of prey, but leads to a cost of prey reproduction. Based on the experimental findings, we propose a predator–prey model with the cost of fear and adaptive avoidance of predators. Mathematical analyses show that the fear effect can interplay with maturation delay between juvenile prey and adult prey in determining the long-term population dynamics. A positive equilibrium may lose stability with an intermediate value of delay and regain stability if the delay is large. Numerical simulations show that both strong adaptation of adult prey and the large cost of fear have destabilizing effect while large population of predators has a stabilizing effect on the predator–prey interactions. Numerical simulations also imply that adult prey demonstrates stronger anti-predator behaviors if the population of predators is larger and shows weaker anti-predator behaviors if the cost of fear is larger.     

Oscillations in large mammal populations: are they related to predation or rainfall?

Cyclic population dynamics is relatively common among populations of small mammals in high latitudes but is not yet established among African savanna ungulates. However, oscillations may be expected in large mammal populations subject to quasi‐periodic oscillations in regional rainfall. We evaluated evidence for environmentally entrained oscillations in a large‐mammal predator–prey system in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, where rainfall exhibits quasi‐periodic oscillations. The evaluation is based on analysis of comparative changes in the abundance of twelve ungulate species throughout South Africa's KNP using population counts over the period 1965–1996. We present evidence suggesting that (i) twelve ungulate populations display cyclic variability with half‐periods ranging between 10 and 18 years, (ii) this variability was associated with lagged rainfall between 3 and 10 years back in the past for different ungulate species, and (iii) the ungulate species respond in contrasting ways to rainfall, with some reaching highest abundance during periods of low rainfall and others under conditions of high rainfall. These findings are not consistent with the response pattern we would expect if the population oscillations were driven directly by the rainfall influence on food availability. Instead they seem to be an outcome of predator–prey interactions, which are entrained by the effect of rainfall on habitat conditions affecting the relative susceptibility of the different ungulate species to predation.     

Sex-specific niche partitioning and sexual size dimorphism in Australian pythons (Morelia spilota imbricata)

Sexual dimorphism is usually interpreted in terms of reproductive adaptations, but the degree of sex divergence also may be affected by sex-based niche partitioning. In gape-limited animals like snakes, the degree of sexual dimorphism in body size (SSD) or relative head size can determine the size spectrum of ingestible prey for each sex. Our studies of one mainland and four insular Western Australian populations of carpet pythons ( Morelia spilota ) reveal remarkable geographical variation in SSD, associated with differences in prey resources available to the snakes. In all five populations, females grew larger than males and had larger heads relative to body length. However, the populations differed in mean body sizes and relative head sizes, as well as in the degree of sexual dimorphism in these traits. Adult males and females also diverged strongly in dietary composition: males consumed small prey (lizards, mice and small birds), while females took larger mammals such as possums and wallabies. Geographic differences in the availability of large mammalian prey were linked to differences in mean adult body sizes of females (the larger sex) and thus contributed to sex-based resource partitioning. For example, in one population adult male snakes ate mice and adult females ate wallabies; in another, birds and lizards were important prey types for both sexes. Thus, the high degree of geographical variation among python populations in sexually dimorphic aspects of body size and shape plausibly results from geographical variation in prey availability.  © 2002 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2002, 77 , 113–125.     

Food web structure and climate effects on the dynamics of small mammals and owls in semi-arid Chile

Population dynamics of small mammals and predators in semi-arid Chile is positively correlated with rainfall associated with incursions of El Niño (El Niño Southern Oscillation: ENSO). However, the causal relationships between small mammal fluctuations, predator oscillations, and climatic disturbances are poorly understood. Here, we report time series models for three species of small mammal prey and two species of owl predators. The large differences in population fluctuations between the three small mammal species are related to differences in their respective feedback structures. The analyses reveal that per capita growth rate of the leaf-eared mouse is a decreasing function of log density and of log barn owl abundance together with a positive rainfall effect. In turn, per capita population growth rate ( R -function) of the barn owl is a negative function of log barn owl abundance and a positive function of leaf-eared mouse abundance, suggesting a predator–prey interaction. The dramatic population fluctuations exhibited by leaf-eared mouse ( Phyllotis darwini ) are caused by climate effects coupled with a complex food web architecture.     

Can measures of prey availability improve our ability to predict the abundance of large marine predators?

Apex marine predators can structure marine communities, so factors underlying their abundance are of broad interest. However, such data are almost completely lacking for large sharks. We assessed the relationship between tiger shark abundance, water temperature, and the availability of a variety of known prey over 5 years in Western Australia. Abundance of sharks in four size categories and the density of prey (cormorants, dugongs, sea snakes, sea turtles) were indexed using daily catch rates and transects, respectively. Across all sizes, thermal conditions were a determinant of abundance, with numerical peaks coinciding with periods of high water temperature. However, for sharks exceeding 300 cm total length, the inclusion of dugong density significantly improved temperature-based models, suggesting that use of particular areas by large tiger sharks is influenced by availability of this sirenian. We conclude that large marine predator population models may benefit from the inclusion of measures of prey availability, but only if such measures consider prey types separately and account for ontogenetic shifts in the diet of the predator in question. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Bottom‐up processes in a declining yellow‐footed rock‐wallaby (Petrogale xanthopus celeris) population

Populations of large herbivores are generally considered to be food limited, escaping the regulatory effects of predation through their large body size, migratory behaviour and/or the occurrence of alternate prey species. In the Australian arid and semi‐arid zones, the availability of forage biomass is considered to be the primary driver of fluctuations in kangaroo abundance. However, little is known about the population dynamics of the smaller sympatric macropods. We examined the demographic traits of a large colony of yellow‐footed rock‐wallabies (Petrogale xanthopus celeris), following a 2‐year period of above average rainfall. The population was located within a conservation reserve that was subject to a predator control program around its perimeter and on neighbouring properties. The low predator abundance provided an opportunity to gauge the strength of bottom‐up population processes. During the two years of the study, the population declined in size by 53%, resulting from both the virtual absence of juvenile recruitment and the loss of adult wallabies. Although reproductive output was high, low pouch young and juvenile survival rates resulted in few individuals progressing into the adult population. With minimal recruitment, the rate of population decline (r = 0.77) matched the observed adult survival rate (Φ = 0.76). Despite average rainfall conditions during the study, survival rates across all age‐classes were equivalent to those reported for other rock‐wallaby populations during periods of scarcity. The reduced survival rates were attributed to low levels of forage resources, particularly around the wallabies' refuge sites, suggesting the bottom‐up regulation of the colony at high densities. The data suggest that the colony was at temporarily high abundance, following a rainfall driven pulse of recruitment. Conservation management actions for this species should focus on increasing juvenile survival rates within declining populations, through the control of feral goats (Capra hircus), rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes).     

Prey Animals of Tiger (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Panthera tigris tigris</Emphasis>) in Dudhwa Landscape,Terai Region,North India

Livestock depredation by carnivores cause substantial human carnivore conflict and subsequently decreased support for carnivore conservation. Thus, understanding carnivore diet with respect to wild prey availability has major implications to determine the reasons behind livestock depredation. A study was conducted to investigate food habits and prey use of tiger at four study sites (Dudhwa National Park, Kishanpur Wildlife Sanctuary, Pilibhit Forest Division and Katerniaghat Wildlife Sanctuary) in Dudhwa landscape, Terai Region, North India for further understanding of prey–predator relationship and partial impact of wild prey availability on livestock depredation by tiger through scat analysis. Scat analysis shows that the tigers depend mostly on medium sized prey throughout the study area (74.11, 73.58, 71.79, 47.62%). In Dudhwa National Park and Kishanpur Wildlife Sanctuary, predation was attempted subsequently on wider prey variety of eleven and nine different available prey species where livestock depredation were only 3.77 and 5.36% respectively. While, in absence of wider prey variety, large sized livestock (21.91, 16.55%) and nilgai (24.41, 5.57%) contributed much higher in tiger diet in Pilibhit Forest Division and Katerniaghat Wildlife Sanctuary respectively. Our study suggested that availability of prey variety has an important role in reduced livestock depredation. Medium sized preys were mostly contributing in tiger diet and seems to be a significant parameter for sustaining tiger population where abundance of large sized prey is rare. Conservation of medium sized preys is important but along with natural restoration of the population of large sized prey species like sambar and swamp deer is essential in order to reduce livestock depredation.     

Diets of denning female Pacific martens vary with the developmental stage of their kits

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Functional and Numerical Responses of Predators: Where Do Vipers Fit in the Traditional Paradigms?

Snakes typically are not considered top carnivores, yet in many ecosystems they are a major predatory influence. A literature search confirmed that terrestrial ectotherms such as snakes are largely absent in most discussions of predator‐prey dynamics. Here, we review classical functional and numerical responses of predator‐prey relationships and then assess whether these traditional views are consistent with what we know of one group of snakes (true vipers and pitvipers: Viperidae). Specifically, we compare behavioural and physiological characteristics of vipers with those of more commonly studied mammalian (endothermic) predators and discuss how functional and numerical responses of vipers are fundamentally different. Overall, when compared to similar‐sized endotherms, our analysis showed that vipers have: (i) lower functional responses owing primarily to longer prey handling times resulting from digestive limitations of consuming large prey and, for some adults, tolerance of fasting; (ii) stronger numerical responses resulting from higher efficiency of converting food into fitness currency (progeny), although this response often takes longer to be expressed; and (iii) reduced capacity for rapid numerical responses to short‐term changes in prey abundance. Given these factors, the potential for viperids to regulate prey populations would most likely occur when prey populations are low. We provide suggestions for future research on key issues in predator‐prey relationships of vipers, including their position within the classical paradigms of functional and numerical responses.     

Reproductive responses to spatial and temporal prey availability in a coastal Arctic fox population

1.?Input of external subsidies in the Arctic may have substantial effects on predator populations that otherwise would have been limited by low local primary productivity. 2.?We explore life-history traits, age-specific fecundity, litter sizes and survival, and the population dynamics of an Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) population to explore the influence of the spatial distribution and temporal availability of its main prey; including both resident and migrating (external) prey resources. 3.?This study reveals that highly predictable cross-boundary subsidies from the marine food web, acting through seasonal access to seabirds, sustain larger local Arctic fox populations. Arctic fox dens located close to the coast in Svalbard were found to have higher occupancy rates, as expected from both high availability and high temporal and spatial predictability of prey resources (temporally stable external subsidies). Whereas the occupancy rate of inland dens varied between years in relation to the abundance of reindeer carcasses (temporally varying resident prey). 4.?With regard to demography, juvenile Arctic foxes in Svalbard have lower survival rates and a high age of first reproduction compared with other populations. We suggest this may be caused by a lack of unoccupied dens and a saturated population.     

Life cycle period and activity of prey influence their susceptibility to predators

In a multi‐prey system, predators kill different kinds of prey according to their availability, where “availability” is a function of prey abundance and vulnerability (e.g. anti‐predator behavior). We hypothesized that prey availability changes seasonally, for instance because reproduction leads to a higher abundance of young in spring and summer or because changes in behavior such as during the mating season makes the prey periodically more vulnerable. We tested this hypothesis in a simple predator‐prey system in the Jura Mountains of Switzerland and France, where a single large mammalian predator, the Eurasian lynx, preys upon two ungulate species, the roe deer and the chamois. In 1996 and 1997 we were able to assign a total of 190 roe deer and 54 chamois killed by lynx to a specific age and sex class (males, females or juveniles). As expected, the proportion of juveniles killed varied considerably among periods, being at the highest from 1st of June to 15th of August. No significant seasonal differences were detected regarding the frequency of predation on males versus females. In particular, the interaction between species and period, expected because of different timing of the rutting period between roe deer and chamois, was not significant. Females were killed only slightly more often during gestation. The relationship between prey abundance and vulnerability is highly complex, as the lynx’ prey selection needs to be analyzed not only horizontally (changes of a specific prey category with season) but also vertically (an increase in the vulnerability of one category releases predation pressure on others). Second, we predicted that certain activities, such as feeding, expose prey to predation more than others. We found more chamois predated when feeding, whereas roe deer were predated mainly when ruminating. This interspecific discrepancy reflects differences either in the anti‐predator behavior of roe deer and chamois or in the relative time allocation to feeding and ruminating between the two species.     

Predator population dynamics under a cyclic prey regime: numerical responses,demographic parameters and growth rates

The consequences of cyclic fluctuations in abundance of prey species on predator continue to improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind population regulation. Among predators, vole‐eating raptors usually respond to changes in prey abundance with no apparent time‐lag and therefore contradict predictions from the predator–prey theory. In such systems, the interplay between demographic traits and population growth rate in relation to prey abundance remains poorly studied, yet it is crucial to characterize the link between ecological processes and population changes. Using a mechanistic approach, we assessed the demographic rates associated to the direct and indirect numerical responses of a specialist raptor (Montagu's harrier) to its cyclic prey (common vole), using long term data from two adjacent study sites in France. First‐year survival rates were weakly affected by vole abundance, probably due to the fact that Montagu's harriers are trans‐Saharan migrants and thus escape the vole collapse occurring in autumn–winter. Recruitment of yearling as well as breeding propensity of experienced adult females were strongly affected by vole abundance and at least partially shaped the trajectory of the breeding population. We argued that the strong density dependent signal detected in predator time series was mostly the phenomenological consequence of the positive direct numerical response of harriers to vole abundance. Accounting for this, we proposed a method to assess density dependence in predator relying on a cyclic prey. Finally, the variation in Montagu's harrier population growth rates was best explained by overwinter growth rates of the prey population and to a lesser extent by previous residual predator density.     

‘Heaven’ for serpents? A mark–recapture study of tiger snakes (Notechis scutatus) on Carnac Island,Western Australia

Abstract Animals resident on small islands provide excellent opportunities to carry out detailed mark–recapture studies. Populations are closed and ecosystems are often simpler than those of mainland sites. These factors enable the study of cryptic species that have otherwise been neglected. Snakes are notable for their secretive nature and, as a result, few natural populations have been accurately described through long‐term mark–recapture monitoring. A population of tiger snakes (Notechis scutatus) was studied on Carnac Island, a small limestone island (16 ha) off the coast of Western Australia. Population estimates show that snake density is very high, with more than 20 adult snakes per ha. This equates to a biomass of more than 100 kg of a top predator concentrated in a very small area. Such a high predator density can be explained because adult snakes feed mainly on chicks of nesting birds that breed in large colonies on Carnac but forage elsewhere. Substantial annual growth rates in body size in most individuals suggest that food availability is high on Carnac. Growth rates decreased more sharply in adult females than in males, whereas annual changes in body mass were similar in both sexes, probably because of the high energetic costs of reproduction experienced by females. Surprisingly, the sex ratio was highly biased, with males largely outnumbering females.     

Prey use of the fishing spider Dolomedes triton (Pisauridae,Araneae): an important predator of the neuston community

Summary Prey of feeding juvenile and adult Dolomedes triton (Walckenaer 1837) were sampled over two seasons on three small ponds in central Alberta, Canada. Prey were mainly insects active at the water surface with truly aquatic species making up about 14% of the diet. Throughout the season aquatic and semi-aquatic Heteroptera represented about 30% of the prey. Diptera and adult Odonata were also important prey items but their abundance in the diet was more variable seasonally. Of the 625 prey items recorded nearly 50% were represented by taxa taken no more than once by spiders in one of the five size classes (adult females, adult males, large, intermediate and small juveniles). Large spiders did not take the smallest prey available, although small and intermediate-sized spiders fed on nearly the full size range taken by larger spiders. Cannibalism was common, accounting for 5% of the observations, with females and large juveniles as the most frequently observed cannibals. We hypothesize that intraguild predation (including cannibalism) could be an important coevolutionary force structuring phenology, population dynamics and microhabitat use of the predatory guild of the neuston community.     

Population ecology of the velvet gecko,Oedura lesueurii in south eastern Australia: Implications for the persistence of an endangered snake

Abstract Ecological specialization, such as major dependence upon a single‐prey species, can render a predator taxon vulnerable to extinction. In such cases, understanding the population dynamics of that prey type is important for conserving the predator that relies upon it. In eastern Australia, the endangered broad‐headed snake Hoplocephalus bungaroides feeds largely on velvet geckos (Oedura lesueurii). We studied growth, longevity and reproduction in a population of velvet geckos in Morton National Park in south‐eastern Australia. We marked 458 individual geckos over a 3‐year period (1992–1995) and made yearly visits to field sites from 1995–2006 to recapture marked individuals. Female geckos grew larger than males, and produced their first clutch at age 4 years. Males can mature at 2 years, but male–male combat for females probably forces males to delay reproduction until age 3 years. Females lay a single clutch of two eggs in communal nests in November, and up to 22 females deposited eggs in a single nest. Egg hatching success was high (100%), and juveniles had high survival (76%) during their first 6 months of life. Velvet geckos are long‐lived, and the mean age of marked animals recaptured after 1995 was 6.1 years (males) and 8.4 years (females). Older females (7.5–9.5 years) were all gravid when last recaptured. Like other temperate‐climate gekkonids, O. lesueurii has a ‘slow’ life history, and population viability could be threatened by any factors that increase egg or adult mortality. Two such factors – the removal of ‘bush rocks’ for urban gardens, and the overgrowth of rock outcrops by vegetation – could render small gecko populations vulnerable to extinction. In turn, the reliance of predatory broad‐headed snakes on this slow‐growing lizard species may increase its vulnerability to extinction.     

Does intraspecific niche partitioning in a native predator influence its response to an invasion by a toxic prey species?

Abstract The introduced and highly toxic cane toad (Bufo marinus) is rapidly spreading across northern Australia where it may affect populations of large terrestrial vertebrate predators. The ecological impact of cane toads will depend upon the diets, foraging modes and habitat use of native predators, and their feeding responses to cane toads. However, intraspecific niche partitioning may influence the degree of vulnerability of predators to toxic prey, as well as the time course of the impact of alien invaders on native species. We studied the diet of the northern death adder Acanthophis praelongus and their feeding responses to cane toads. In the laboratory, death adders from all size classes and sexes readily consumed frogs and cane toads. Diets of free ranging A. praelongus from the Adelaide River floodplain were more heterogeneous. Juvenile snakes ate mainly frogs (39% of prey items) and small scincid lizards (43%). Both sexes displayed an ontogenetic dietary shift from lizards to mammals, but adult males fed on frogs (49%) and mammals (39%) whereas adult females (which grew larger than males) fed mainly on mammals (91%) and occasionally, frogs (9%). Feeding rates and body condition of adult snakes varied temporally and tracked fluctuations in prey availability. These results suggest that cane toads may negatively affect populations of northern death adders in the Darwin region. However, we predict that different size and sex classes of A. praelongus will experience differential mortality rates over different timescales. The initial invasion of large toads may affect adult males, but juveniles may be unaffected until juvenile toads appear the following year, and major affects on adult female death adders may be delayed until annual rainfall fluctuations reduce the availability of alternative (rodent) prey.