Possible impacts of environmental change on pelagic fish recruitment: modelling anchovy transport by advective processes in the southern Benguela

Climate change may influence pelagic fish by altering advective processes or by changing where fish choose to spawn. Using a simulation model, the effects of altered advection and spatial distribution of spawning by anchovy on recruitment off South Africa were explored. Cape anchovy Engraulis capensis spawn on the region of the Agulhas Bank, south of South Africa. Currents transport eggs and larvae to nursery areas. Transport of eggs and larvae was modelled using a flow field based on averaged Acoustic Doppler Current Profile data, Feasible Scenarious of altered advection were modelled. For modelling purposes, the ocean surrounding South Africa was divided into blocks with dimensions of a quarter-degree latitude by a quarter-degree longitude. Acoustically measured distributions of spawner biomass for the years 1986–92 were used to calculate egg production per block. In the model, batches were released from each of these blocks each day of the spawning season. The modelling study indicates that passive transport of young anchovy may account for a substantial proportion of year-class variability. Model results show that distribution of spawners influences the distribution of young of the year, as well as the number and the location of advective losses across offshore boundaries.     

The Role of Hydrodynamic Processes on Anchovy Eggs and Larvae Distribution in the Sicily Channel (Mediterranean Sea): A Case Study for the 2004 Data Set

Knowledge of the link between ocean hydrodynamics and distribution of small pelagic fish species is fundamental for the sustainable management of fishery resources. Both commercial and scientific communities are indeed seeking to provide services that could “connect the dots” among in situ and remote observations, numerical ocean modelling, and fisheries. In the Mediterranean Sea and, in particular, in the Sicily Channel the reproductive strategy of the European Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) is strongly influenced by the oceanographic patterns, which are often visible in sea surface temperature satellite data. Based on these experimental evidences, we propose here a more general approach where the role of ocean currents, wind effects, and mesoscale activity are tied together. To investigate how these features affect anchovy larvae distribution, we pair ichthyoplankton observations to a wide remote sensing data set, and to Lagrangian numerical simulations for larval transport. Our analysis shows that while the wind-induced coastal current is able to transport anchovy larvae from spawning areas to the recruiting area off the Sicilian south-eastern tip, significant cross-shore transport due to the combination of strong northwesterly mistral winds and topographic effects delivers larvae away from the coastal conveyor belt. We then use a potential vorticity approach to describe the occurrence of larvae cross-shore transport. We conclude that monitoring and quantifying the upwelling on the southern Sicilian coast during the spawning season allows to estimate the cross-shore transport of larvae and the consequent decrease of individuals within the recruiting area.     

Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem

Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf). Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem with potential to impact fisheries and other ecosystem services.     

Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century

Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), an economically important fish species. We focus on changes in the temperature‐dependent growth potential by a transfer function model combining growth observations with climate model ensemble temperatures. Growth potential is expressed in terms of asymptotic body weight and depends on water temperature. We consider changes between the periods 1985–2004 and 2081–2100, assuming that future sea water temperatures will evolve according to climate projections for IPCC AR5 scenario RCP8.5. Our model projects a response of Atlantic cod to future warming, differentiated according to ocean regions, leading to increases of asymptotic weight in the Barents Sea, while weights are projected to decline at the southern margin of the biogeographic range. Southern spawning areas will disappear due to thermal limitation of spawning stages. These projections match the currently observed biogeographic shifts and the temperature‐ and oxygen‐dependent decline in routine aerobic scope at southern distribution limits.     

Ticket to spawn: Combining economic and genetic data to evaluate the effect of climate and demographic structure on spawning distribution in Atlantic cod

Climate warming and harvesting affect the dynamics of species across the globe through a multitude of mechanisms, including distribution changes. In fish, migrations to and distribution on spawning grounds are likely influenced by both climate warming and harvesting. The Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua) performs seasonal migrations from its feeding grounds in the Barents Sea to spawning grounds along the Norwegian coast. The distribution of cod between the spawning grounds has historically changed at decadal scales, mainly due to variable use of the northern and southern margins of the spawning area. Based on historical landing records, two major hypotheses have been put forward to explain these changes: climate and harvesting. Climate could affect the distribution through, for example, spatial habitat shifts. Harvesting could affect the distribution through impacting the demographic structure. If demographic structure is important, theory predicts increasing spawner size with migration distance. Here, we evaluate these hypotheses with modern data from a period (2000–2016) of increasing temperature and recovering stock structure. We first analyze economic data from the Norwegian fisheries to investigate geographical differences in size of spawning fish among spawning grounds, as well as interannual differences in mean latitude of spawning in relation to changes in temperature and demographic parameters. Second, we analyze genetically determined fish sampled at the spawning grounds to unambiguously separate between migratory NEA cod and potentially smaller sized coastal cod of local origin. Our results indicate smaller spawners farther away from the feeding grounds, hence not supporting the hypothesis that harvesting is a main driver for the contemporary spawning ground distribution. We find a positive correlation between annual mean spawning latitude and temperature. In conclusion, based on contemporary data, there is more support for climate compared to harvesting in shaping spawning ground distribution in this major fish stock in the North Atlantic Ocean.     

Influence of climate variability on whitefish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Coregonus lavaretus</Emphasis>) year-class strength in a deep,warm monomictic lake

The year-class strength (YCS) of Blaufelchen (Coregonus lavaretus) in deep Upper Lake Constance was analysed for a 52-year period, from 1947 to 1998. Despite strong anthropogenic influences on the species' population dynamics due to cultural eutrophication and oligotrophication, intense fishing, and large-scale stocking, the influence of climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is apparent in the data set. This influence is significant although large-scale stocking of cold-bred larvae was performed to avoid a mismatch of larvae with their food. The importance of stocking on YCS, however, is unclear and was only detectable when analysing a subset of the data. In addition to climate variability a yet unidentified factor related to zooplankton suitability as food for fish larvae, and density-dependent mortality probably related to cannibalism do significantly influence YCS. The NAO seemed to influence YCS twofold, through temperature effects on egg development time and on larval growth rate. The first of these two mechanisms is related to the NAO via a time lag of 1 year due to the specific mixing dynamics of warm monomictic Lake Constance. Hence, a warm winter in the year before spawning results in earlier hatching of larvae, that is, hatching is decoupled from the actual meteorological conditions. This should make the larvae very prone to mismatch the dynamics of their food. However, we found no evidence for such a mismatch in this 52-year data set.     

Long-term retrospective analysis of mackerel spawning in the North Sea: a new time series and modeling approach to CPR data

We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels. Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock.     

Temperature-driven changes in early life-history stages influence the Gulf of Riga spring spawning herring (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clupea harengus m</Emphasis>.) recruitment abundance

Processes occurring during early life-history stages influence the year-class abundance of marine fish. We found that the abundance of 1-year-old spring spawning herring is statistically significantly determined by the number of post-flexion herring larvae in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea). The abundance of consecutive developmental stages of larvae: yolk-sac, pre-flexion, flexion and post-flexion strongly correlated with each other, indicating that factors which already influence the yolk-sac stage are important in determining the abundance of post-flexion herring larvae. Winter air temperature before spawning determined the timing of maximum abundance of pre-flexion herring larvae, but not their main prey: copepod nauplii, implying that different mechanisms governing major preconditions for the formation of year-class strength. The abundance of post-flexion larvae displayed a potential dome-shaped relationship with sea surface temperature experienced after hatching. We suggest that increased summer temperatures, which exceed the physiological optimum negatively, affect the survival of post-flexion herring larvae. Overall, future climate warming poses an additional risk to larval herring survival and this may lead to a reduction in those herring stock which rely on recruitment from shallow coastal areas.     

Effects of temperature gradients resulting from reservoir discharge on Dorosoma cepedianum spawning in the Savannah River

Synopsis The timing and spatial pattern of gizzard shad, Dorosoma cepedianum, spawning were markedly affected by a temperature gradient caused by the release of hypolimnetic water from an upstream reservoir into the middle reaches of the Savannah River. During 1983 and 1984, a distinct thermal gradient occurred with the warmest temperatures at the downstream end of the 257 km study reach and the coolest temperatures at the upstream end. The occurrence of gizzard shad larvae indicated that spawning began at the sample stations farthest downstream and progressed upstream, peaking at each sample station when it warmed to approximately 19° C. The estimated difference in date of peak density of larvae between the upstream and downstream ends of the gradient was 23 days in 1983 and 35 days in 1984. Because of this pattern, densities of larvae were highest at the downstream end of the study area early in the spawning season and highest at the upstream end of the study area late in the spawning season.Photoperiod and daylength appeared unrelated to the patterns under study. Far-reaching effects of anthropogenic temperature changes on fish spawning and the distribution of larvae are probably common in rivers that receive hypolimnetic discharge.     

Strengthened currents override the effect of warming on lobster larval dispersal and survival

Human‐induced climate change is projected to increase ocean temperature and modify circulation patterns, with potential widespread implications for the transport and survival of planktonic larvae of marine organisms. Circulation affects the dispersal of larvae, whereas temperature impacts larval development and survival. However, the combined effect of changes in circulation and temperature on larval dispersal and survival has rarely been studied in a future climate scenario. Such understanding is crucial to predict future species distributions, anticipate ecosystem shifts and design effective management strategies. We simulate contemporary (1990s) and future (2060s) dispersal of lobster larvae using an eddy‐resolving ocean model in south‐eastern Australia, a region of rapid ocean warming. Here we show that the effects of changes in circulation and temperature can counter each other: ocean warming favours the survival of lobster larvae, whereas a strengthened western boundary current diminishes the supply of larvae to the coast by restricting cross‐current larval dispersal. Furthermore, we find that changes in circulation have a stronger effect on connectivity patterns of lobster larvae along south‐eastern Australia than ocean warming in the future climate so that the supply of larvae to the coast reduces by ~4% and the settlement peak shifts poleward by ~270 km in the model simulation. Thus, ocean circulation may be one of the dominant factors contributing to climate‐induced changes of species ranges.     

Reproductive biology and larval morphology of the marine plotosid Cnidoglanis macrocephalus (Teleostei) in a seasonally closed Australian estuary

Monthly trends shown by gonadosomatic indices, the prevalence of the different gonadal stages, and the size distribution of the oocytes, indicate that the large marine and commercially important plotosid Cnidoglanis macrocephalus spawns in Wilson Inlet between October and January. The conclusion that spawning occurs within this seasonally closed estuary was confirmed by the presence of males in large nests and by the capture of newly-hatched, yolk sac larvae from one of those nests. The fact that C. macrocephalus, which is also widely distributed in coastal marine waters throughout much of southern Australia, can spawn within Wilson Inlet would be of particular value to this species in those periods when closure of the estuary would preclude a seawards spawning migration. Sexual maturity is size dependent, with spawning rarely occurring before fish have reached a total length of 425 mm. Sexual maturity was attained by a few fish at the end of their second year, by several at the end of their third year and by most, if not all fish, at the end of their fourth year. Comparisons with data for the more northern and permanently open Swan Estuary indicate that C. macrocephalus also spawns within that system and that the spawning time of this species is related to water temperature. The adult male guards the larvae under its pelvic fins in burrows. The larvae increased in total length from 29 mm just after hatching to 43 mm in the 17–18 days after capture, during which time their yolk sac was resorbed. Details are given of the morphology, morphometrics, meristics and pigmentation of larval C. macrocephalus. In comparison with the larvae of three other plotosid genera, the larva of C. macrocephalus is far larger in size and more developed at hatching and takes a shorter time to transform into a juvenile.     

Ichthyoplankton distribution as an indicator of hydrodynamic conditions of a lagoon system in the Mexican Caribbean

The salt-water intrusion into a lagoon system of the Sian Ka’anBiosphere Reserve was assessed during 1 year and related tothe marine component of the larval fish assemblage. This systemis environmentally complex because of the penetration of marinewater, and the discharge of surface and subterranean water.Biological samples were collected during four field expeditionsfrom October 1996 to August 1997. Surface circular tows with500-µm-mesh conical plankton nets with a flowmeter weremade during the day. Position, depth, temperature and salinitywere recorded at each sampling station. All fish larvae wereremoved from the samples and identified to the lowest possibletaxon. Ichthyoplankton abundance was normalized to 100 m³ ofwater. The distribution patterns of the carangiid Oligoplitessaurus, the herring Opisthonema oglinum, the dragonet Diplogrammuspauciradiatus and members of the Tetraodontidae were relatedto the wind-driven circulation pattern of the lagoons obtainedusing a numerical model. The analysis of the distribution ofichthyoplankton showed that these species are good indicatorsof the spatial salinity variations controlled by the hydrodynamiccharacteristics of the system. The spatial use of these estuariesas a habitat for fish larvae is therefore strongly influencedby salinity distribution, itself modulated by annual variationof wind stress.     

Phenological and distributional shifts in ichthyoplankton associated with recent warming in the northeast Pacific Ocean

Understanding changes in the migratory and reproductive phenology of fish stocks in relation to climate change is critical for accurate ecosystem‐based fisheries management. Relocation and changes in timing of reproduction can have dramatic effects upon the success of fish populations and throughout the food web. During anomalously warm conditions (1–4°C above normal) in the northeast Pacific Ocean during 2015–2016, we documented shifts in timing and spawning location of several pelagic fish stocks based on larval fish samples. Total larval concentrations in the northern California Current (NCC) during winter (January–March) 2015 and 2016 were the highest observed since annual collections first occurred in 1998, primarily due to increased abundances of Engraulis mordax (northern anchovy) and Sardinops sagax (Pacific sardine) larvae, which are normally summer spawning species in this region. Sardinops sagax and Merluccius productus (Pacific hake) exhibited an unprecedented early and northward spawning expansion during 2015–16. In addition, spawning duration was greatly increased for E. mordax, as the presence of larvae was observed throughout the majority of 2015–16, indicating prolonged and nearly continuous spawning of adults throughout the warm period. Larvae from all three of these species have never before been collected in the NCC as early in the year. In addition, other southern species were collected in the NCC during this period. This suggests that the spawning phenology and distribution of several ecologically and commercially important fish species dramatically and rapidly changed in response to the warming conditions occurring in 2014–2016, and could be an indication of future conditions under projected climate change. Changes in spawning timing and poleward migration of fish populations due to warmer ocean conditions or global climate change will negatively impact areas that were historically dependent on these fish, and change the food web structure of the areas that the fish move into with unforeseen consequences.     

A century of research on the larval distributions of the Atlantic eels: a re‐examination of the data

The spawning areas of the Atlantic freshwater eels were discovered about a century ago by the Danish scientist Johannes Schmidt who after years of searching found newly hatched larvae of the European eel, Anguilla anguilla, and the American eel, Anguilla rostrata, in the southern Sargasso Sea. The discovery showed that anguillid eels migrate thousands of kilometers to offshore spawning areas for reproduction, and that their larvae, called leptocephali, are transported equally long distances by ocean currents to their continental recruitment areas. The spawning sites were found to be related to oceanographic conditions several decades later by German and American surveys from 1979 to 1989 and by a Danish survey in 2007 and a German survey in 2011. All these later surveys showed that spawning occurred within a restricted latitudinal range, between temperature fronts within the Subtropical Convergence Zone of the Sargasso Sea. New data and re‐examinations of Schmidt's data confirmed his original conclusions about the two species having some overlap in spawning areas. Although there have been additional collections of leptocephali in various parts of the North Atlantic, and both otolith research and transport modelling studies have subsequently been carried out, there is still a range of unresolved questions about the routes of larval transport and durations of migration. This paper reviews the history and basic findings of surveys for anguillid leptocephali in the North Atlantic and analyses a new comprehensive database that includes 22612 A. anguilla and 9634 A. rostrata leptocephali, which provides a detailed view of the spatial and temporal distributions and size of the larvae across the Atlantic basin and in the Mediterranean Sea. The differences in distributions, maximum sizes, and growth rates of the two species of larvae are likely linked to the contrasting migration distances to their recruitment areas on each side of the basin. Anguilla rostrata leptocephali originate from a more western spawning area, grow faster, and metamorphose at smaller sizes of <70 mm than the larvae of A. anguilla, which mostly are spawned further east and can reach sizes of almost 90 mm. The larvae of A. rostrata spread west and northwest from the spawning area as they grow larger, with some being present in the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Larvae of A. anguilla appear to be able to reach Europe by entering the Gulf Stream system or by being entrained into frontal countercurrents that transport them directly northeastward. The larval duration of A. anguilla is suggested to be quite variable, but gaps in sampling effort prevent firm conclusions. Although knowledge about larval behaviour is lacking, some influences of directional swimming are implicated by the temporal distributions of the largest larvae. Ocean–atmosphere changes have been hypothesized to affect the survival of the larvae and cause reduced recruitment, so even after about a century following the discovery of their spawning areas, mysteries still remain about the marine life histories of the Atlantic eels.     

Replenishment of fish populations in the enclosed lagoon of Taiaro Atoll: (Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia) evidence from eggs and larvae

 Taiaro Atoll Lagoon is normally isolated from the ocean, but at least 125 marine fish species of 31 families are present there. We sampled fish larvae in Taiaro Lagoon and the nearby ocean in February 1994 with plankton net, neuston net and light trap to investigate which taxa were completing their life cycles in the lagoon. Concentrations of fish eggs and larvae were very high in the lagoon indicating intense spawning, but larvae of only 18 taxa of 10 families were present. Only six, a callionymid, gobiids, a hemiramphid, a microdesmid, and two pomacentrids, were present across a full range of pelagic sizes, and were clearly completing their pelagic stage in the lagoon. Four other taxa, an apogonid, two labrids and a scarid, were common, but the largest individuals were small (<5 mm) postflexion larvae. These may have been completing their pelagic stage in the lagoon. The remaining lagoonal larvae (eight taxa) were rare and at the preflexion stage, so we could only conclude that they hatched from eggs spawned in the lagoon. Nineteen taxa of 15 families found as adults in the lagoon were present outside the lagoon as larvae, but not inside, suggesting that they may not normally complete their life cycles in the lagoon. Horizontal distributions of larvae in the lagoon are apparently due to the interaction of larval vertical distribution behaviour with a wind-driven countercurrent system. Accepted: 16 October 1996     

Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas

Climate change has strongly influenced the distribution and abundance of marine fish species, leading to concern about effects of future climate on commercially harvested stocks. Understanding the key drivers of large-scale spatial variation across present-day marine assemblages enables predictions of future change. Here we present a unique analysis of standardised abundance data for 198 marine fish species from across the Northeast Atlantic collected by 23 surveys and 31,502 sampling events between 2005 and 2018. Our analyses of the spatially comprehensive standardised data identified temperature as the key driver of fish community structure across the region, followed by salinity and depth. We employed these key environmental variables to model how climate change will affect both the distributions of individual species and local community structure for the years 2050 and 2100 under multiple emissions scenarios. Our results consistently indicate that projected climate change will lead to shifts in species communities across the entire region. Overall, the greatest community-level changes are predicted at locations with greater warming, with the most pronounced effects at higher latitudes. Based on these results, we suggest that future climate-driven warming will lead to widespread changes in opportunities for commercial fisheries across the region.     

Temperature change effects on marine fish range shifts: A meta-analysis of ecological and methodological predictors

The current effects of global warming on marine ecosystems are predicted to increase, with species responding by changing their spatial distributions. Marine ectotherms such as fish experience elevated distribution shifts, as temperature plays a key role in physiological functions and delineating population ranges through thermal constraints. Distributional response predictions necessary for population management have been complicated by high heterogeneity in magnitude and direction of movements, which may be explained by both biological as well as methodological study differences. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive synthesis of the interacting ecological factors influencing fish distributions in response to climate change and the confounding methodological factors that can affect their estimation. In this study we analyzed published studies meeting criteria of reporting range shift responses to global warming in 115 taxa spanning all major oceanic regions, totaling 595 three-dimensional population responses (latitudinal, longitudinal, and depth), with temperature identified as a significant driver. We found that latitudinal shifts were the fastest in non-exploited, tropical populations, and inversely correlated with depth shifts which, in turn, dominated at the trailing edges of population ranges. While poleward responses increased with rate of temperature change and latitude, niche was a key factor in predicting both depth (18% of variation) and latitudinal responses (13%), with methodological predictors explaining between 10% and 28% of the observed variance in marine fish responses to temperature change. Finally, we found strong geographical publication bias and limited taxonomical scope, highlighting the need for more representative and standardized research in order to address heterogeneity in distribution responses and improve predictions in face of changing climate.     

Predation of perch on vendace larvae: diet composition in an oligotrophic lake and digestion time of the larvae

The diet of perch Perca fluviatilis was studied to reveal possible predation on vendace Coregonus albula larvae in an oligotrophic lake. Perch diet changed with the size of the fish: small perch ate mainly zooplankton and the diet shifted more to benthic invertebrates and fishes in larger perch. There were also annual and spatial differences in the diet, probably reflecting differences in the availability of prey animals. Perch predation on vendace larvae was only observed in the area with high availability of the larvae. The result suggested strengthened predation when the density of the larvae increases. According to bioenergetics modelling, the perch population increased natural mortality of vendace larvae only marginally. Food intake of spawning female perch was slightly reduced, whereas spawning males fed similarly to non-spawning males. Hence, the spawning period of perch was only a minor refuge for vendace larvae. Laboratory experiments of perch digestion rate demonstrated that, due to rapid digestion of the small fish larvae, diet sampling interval should not be >2 h in the field.     

The adaptive capacity of fishery management systems for confronting climate change impacts on marine populations

Global climate change will affect the abundance, distribution, and life history timing of many exploited marine populations, but specific changes are difficult to predict. Management systems in which harvest strategies and tactics are flexible in responding to unpredictable biological changes are more likely to succeed in maintaining productive populations. We explore the adaptability of fisheries management systems in relation to oceanic warming rates by asking how two important management characteristics vary with temperature changes for >500 stocks. (1) Harvest control rules, a framework for altering fishing pressure in response to changes in the abundance of targeted species (primarily due to fishing), may provide the capacity for harvest policies to change in response to climate-driven abundance declines also. (2) Seasonal openings with flexible dates that involve in-season monitoring may allow managers to better respond to possible changes in the timing of life-history periods like spawning to prevent fishing seasons falling out of sync with species’ phenology. Harvest control rules were widely used across industrialized fisheries including in regions that experienced relatively high oceanic warming rates, but after controlling for regional factors we found no association between ocean warming and the use of harvest control rules. Flexible-date seasonal openings were rare compared to fixed-date seasonal openings, but tended to occur in areas with the greatest warming rates while fisheries without seasonal closures tended to occur in areas with the least observed temperature changes. We found no consistent evidence of recent ocean warming effects on the current biomass or exploitation rates relative to management targets of 241 assessed marine populations. Together, these results suggest that the oceanic areas expected to have the greatest climate impacts on populations do at least tend to contain fisheries that demonstrate the potential for adaptability to unpredictable climate impacts.     

Ocean warming,a rapid distributional shift,and the hybridization of a coastal fish species

Despite increasing awareness of large‐scale climate‐driven distribution shifts in the marine environment, no study has linked rapid ocean warming to a shift in distribution and consequent hybridization of a marine fish species. This study describes rapid warming (0.8 °C per decade) in the coastal waters of the Angola‐Benguela Frontal Zone over the last three decades and a concomitant shift by a temperature sensitive coastal fish species (Argyrosomus coronus) southward from Angola into Namibia. In this context, rapid shifts in distribution across Economic Exclusive Zones will complicate the management of fishes, particularly when there is a lack of congruence in the fisheries policy between nations. Evidence for recent hybridization between A. coronus and a congener, A. inodorus, indicate that the rapid shift in distribution of A. coronus has placed adults of the two species in contact during their spawning events. Ocean warming may therefore revert established species isolation mechanisms and alter the evolutionary history of fishes. While the consequences of the hybridization on the production of the resource remain unclear, this will most likely introduce additional layers of complexity to their management.