The solar wind and human birth rate: A possible relationship due to magnetic disturbances

Data obtained from the literature on the annual pattern of human conceptions and plasma melatonin at high latitudes indicated that simple annual rhythms do not exist. Instead, prominent semiannual rhythms are found, with equinoctial troughs and solsticial peaks. A prominent semiannual environmental event is the magnetic disturbance induced by the solar wind. The semiannual magnetic disturbances are worldwide, but most pronounced in the auroral zones where the corpuscular radiation enters the atmosphere. Magnetic indices that predominantly reflect these events were obtained from the literature and correlated with the melatonin and conception data. Significant and inverse correlations were found for Inuit conceptions and the melatonin data. The correlations obtained for 48 contiguous states of the United States indicated that only the extreme northern states exhibited this relationship. These data were compared with a previous correlational study in the United States which established that sunshine was correlated with conceptions in the middle latitude and southern states. An hypothesis of dual control by electromagnetic and magnetic energies is proposed: melatonin is a progonadal hormone in humans controlled by both factors, depending on their relative strength. Other studies are reviewed regarding the possible factors involved in determining the annual pattern of human conceptions. Demographic studies of geographic variation in temporal patterns of conceptions, with particular regard to variations of the magnetic fields on the earth's surface, may provide some insight into the efficacy of these different factors.     

Contents Volume 34 (2003)

Abstract

Our previous studies indicated that temperature and photoperiod were not involved as temporal variables in effecting the annual changes in human conceptions in the USA. However, temperature still receives attention in the current literature as the important variable in determining the temporal pattern of conceptions. Therefore, we present here a replication of our previous study, involving two additional 11‐year cycles of birth data in the USA, from the interval 1945 thru 1966. The data are transformed to remove linear trends, to remove over‐all mean differences, and to remove differences in amplitude. The data are then clustered into the regional groups determined by the previous study. The replication was obtained when these groups exhibited similar patterns within a 11‐year period and among 11‐year periods. The data from four 11‐year intervals are presented, representing more than 100 million Caucasian births in the USA from 1945 thru 1988. The subtle changes with time are described, and a comparison with a southern hemisphere pattern indicates, along with the other data, that temperature is irrelevant in effecting the annual pattern of changes in conceptions.     

The 11-year cycle in human births

The annual numbers of human births were analyzed with regard to an 11-year cycle. The annual values were obtained from seven different regions: Australia, Germany, England and Wales, New Zealand, Japan, Switzerland, and the USA. Fifty-five annual values were obtained from each region for the years 1930 to 1984, comprising approximately five sunspot cycles. For each region the annual values were formed into 5 by 11 matrices; the eleven column means obtained were standardized, and plotted. A periodic regression technique, utilizing the fitting functions of the Fourier series, was used to evaluate the temporal order in the column means. Eleven-year rhythms were found and compared with solar and geophysical variables. Correlations were found with sunspots and solar flares, with terrestrial measures of magnetic disturbances (the magnetic indices derived from the K-index), and with temperature. The correlation of conceptions with the 11-year solar cycle may be a potential guide in the selection of further variables for the control and regulation of the rhythms in human conceptions.     

A statistical analysis of the annual pattern in black and white births in the Southeastern and Midwestern USA, 1969 thru 1976

Abstract

The annual pattern of black and white births in the Southeastern and Midwestern United States was analyzed for the years 1969 thru 1976. Monthly means for the eight‐year period were obtained individually for 17 states and for black births in the District of Columbia. The states and the district were selected for their large black populations and represent approximately 70% of black births in the USA. The data were analyzed in two ways, with an analysis of variance (the two‐factor mixed design with repeated measures on one factor) and by comparing the confidence intervals for the least‐squares derived Fourier coefficients of a sine curve. In addition, the range was compared between regions and between races and related to latitude. The analyses of variance indicated that statistically significant differences existed between regions and between races. The cosinor‐like method failed to adequately represent the data in most cases. The completely urban black population in the District of Columbia exhibited an annual pattern that was similar to the pattern in neighboring states, states that contained large rural populations. The range in the monthly averages of births was different between regions and between races, and inversely correlated with latitude (with “North”; and “white”; having smaller ranges). Some possible causative factors are briefly reviewed, and the correlation of sperm counts and conceptions offered as a new possibility.     

Annual Variation in Ecology and Reproduction of Wild Simakobu (Simias concolor)

Seasonal breeding in primates is related to the degree of environmental seasonality, particularly the availability and predictability of food. Southeast Asian species in general show moderate birth seasonality due to either low environmental seasonality or unpredictable fluctuations of mast-fruiting food resources. One Southeast Asian primate, the simakobu (Simias concolor), however, has been reported to be a strict seasonal breeder with births occurring in June and July only. It is unclear whether these observations are characteristic of the species or result from a sampling bias. To address this question, we documented the annual distribution of 11 births in eight groups of simakobu over two consecutive years at Pungut, an undisturbed site on Siberut Island, Indonesia. We assessed annual variation in ecology and reproduction via rainfall, temperature, food availability, feeding time, physical condition, conceptions, and births. Mean monthly temperature was nearly constant (26.3–27.1?°C), and monthly precipitation always high (219–432?mm). Although simakobu foods were abundant year-round, there were two fruit-feeding peaks in June and September. In contrast to previous reports, we documented births in 7?mo. Most births occurred in October (45?%), the wettest month of the year, and most conceptions in March and April, following a peak in unripe fruit availability. Although sample sizes are very small, females seemed to conceive when their physical condition was best, suggesting that simakobu time conceptions flexibly to the recovery of energy reserves. Across study sites, births occurred in 10 calendar months, indicating that simakobu reproduction is not strictly seasonal.     

Species richness, abundance, and body size relationships from a neotropical chironomid assemblage: Looking for patterns

We investigated two of the most studied relationships in the macroecological research program (species richness vs. body size and abundance vs. body size) of a local chironomid assemblage from southeastern Brazil. Although numerous studies have examined these relationships, few have investigated how they vary at different temporal scales. We used data from a forested stream to document and examine these patterns at monthly intervals. Both the species body size distribution and the abundance–body size relationship varied temporally. In some months the body size distribution was skewed to the right, whereas in others it approached normality. We found both linear relationships (with different values of slopes), and a polygonal pattern in the abundance–body size relationship. This temporal variation was not related to environmental variables. Our results suggest that body size relationships are temporally instable properties of this chironomid assemblage.     

Seasonal variation in conception and various pregnancy outcomes

Abstract

U.S. vital registration data on live births and data on abortions and ectopic pregnancies from a national hospital discharge survey were used to examine the seasonality of conceptions and the influence the conception pattern has on the monthly incidence of abortions and ectopic pregnancies. We found that in the United States conceptions follow a consistent seasonal pattern with the peak in November and December. However, when the pattern for conceptions is controlled, the monthly variation for abortions and ectopic pregnancies is not significant. Therefore, we find no monthly excess for any of these outcomes of pregnancy over that expected as a consequence of the seasonality of conception. We suggest the monthly variation for the number of each of these pregnancy outcomes will best be explained when the seasonal variation in conceptions is understood.     

Effects of the environment on dog semen parameters and testosterone concentration

Whether a mammal reproduces seasonally or continuously depends mostly on the environment and its effects on the endocrine pattern. Although the dog was the first species to have been domesticated, little information is available on the changes in reproduction that have occurred since. In this study, we evaluated whether environmental stimuli can act as modulators of male gonadal activity in the dog at the latitude of Bari (Italy). Therefore, for 1 year, serum and seminal testosterone (T) concentrations, together with seminal parameters, were recorded monthly and evaluated in relation to environmental variables such as temperature, humidity, and photoperiod. We found that, in temperate regions, the annual serum T profile is not affected by environmental conditions, whereas seminal T profile peaks in October and reaches its nadir in April. The percentage of progressive motile spermatozoa is also dependent on environmental cues. The results support the intuitive idea that recorded data require a proper analysis to be meaningful. In fact, we found that, in the dog, environmental changes appear to affect male gonadal physiology, and this is clear when recorded data are analyzed monthly; in contrast, pooling data into seasonal groups hides monthly environmental variations.     

Influence of an Atypical Summer on the Primary Productivity of Phytoplankton in Two Tropical Ponds

Primary productivity of phytoplankton was measured in two fish ponds at monthly intervals during two annual cycles, of which the second one included an unusual drought. The temporal course of variations in phytoplankton primary productivity was essentially similar in both annual cycles, exhibiting peaks and troughs during summer and winter, respectively. However, monthly mean values of gross and net primary productivity of phytoplankton during the second year were several times higher than during the first. The greatest difference between the two years of investigation was found in the summer peak of primary productivity. It is estimated that an increase of nitrogen or phosphate or the N/P ratio by one unit during the second year caused a 2 to 16-fold enhancement of the rates of primary productivity. The seasonal changes of photosynthetic efficiency correlated with the concentrations of phosphate.     

Birth seasonality in the early Spanish-Mexican colonists of California (1769-1898)

The pattern of birth seasonality in California's early Spanish-Mexican colonists between 1769 and 1898 was reconstructed using genealogical data for progeny of 657 marriages. The monthly distribution of the 3,824 births in this sample shows a strong seasonal pattern, with spring and fall peaks (corresponding to peaks in conceptions during July and February) and a low point in October. This seasonal reproductive pattern is the result of a complicated set of interactions among environmental, physiological, and cultural variables. California's strongly developed winter rainfall pattern and the 19th-century agricultural cycle clearly influenced the seasonal pattern of marriages and births in this agrarian society. Several historical processes interacted with these environmental and economic factors to transform the seasonal birth pattern of the early colonists. Through time the birth pattern becomes less variable and the birth maximum shifts from spring to early winter. This appears to be, at least in part, a result of changes in labor patterns and an increase in average parity. These data suggest a multifactorial explanation for birth seasonality, in which the timing of conceptions and births is influenced by both environmental and socioeconomic factors.     

An analysis for temporal variation in Down syndrome births in Ohio, 1970–1979

Our study investigates the epidemiology of Down syndrome (DS) in the state of Ohio during the 1970s. The occurrence of DS births was examined to learn if statistically significant temporal variation was present among these data. Both monthly and annual numbers of DS births, adjusted for changing numbers of live births, were tested for such variation; furthermore, the data were analyzed for cyclic variation by attempting to fit simple trigonometric functions to the data.

Individuals with DS were ascertained using the records of cytogenetics laboratories and birth certificate records. Demographic data such as race, date of birth, and maternal age were collected on these individuals using their birth certificates as the data source. Appropriate parallel live-birth data were obtained from the Ohio Department of Health. The total number of affected individuals ascertained was 1,364, 66.7% of the total estimated population size. The data analysis was restricted to whites only (1,203 individuals) because they represented a more homogeneous sample than the total.

Monthly and annual variation in the numbers of live births was removed by producing single-year maternal-age adjusted numbers of DS births using the total Ohio white live births as the reference population. Analysis of covariance using single-year maternal ages ≤ 16 and ≥ 45 as the covariate was used to analyze the adjusted numbers of DS births for temporal variation.

No significant differences were detected among the annual adjusted numbers of DS births (P = .24), nor were there differences among the monthly adjusted numbers of DS (P = .37). The modes of ascertainment were tested to learn if there were annual or monthly differences in the method of ascertainment. No significant differences were detected for these data (P = .82 and P = .85, respectively). Furthermore, the data were separated into the maternal-age categories < 35 and ≥ 35, and annual and monthly adjusted DS births to these two maternal-age categories were examined for temporal variation. No significant differences were found among these data, P > .10 for all four of the tests. No simple cyclic functions were found to fit either the annual or monthly data.

The Ohio study reported here showed that through the use of a large sample, controlling for variation in the numbers of live births, and the use of detailed statistical tests, no significant temporal variation in the occurrence of DS births existed during the 1970s.

     

Birth seasonally among peasant cultivators: The interrelationship of workload,diet, and fertility

The monthly distribution of live births was analyzed over a 51-year period, 1926–1976, for a rural Taiwan fishing community. Unlike previous studies of birth seasonality, monthly distributions of births did not deviate from what would be expected by chance. This new case is shown to be consistent with the suggestion, developed by Pasternak during a study of birth seasonality in two Taiwan farming communities, that for peasant cultivators the annual cycle of production exerts a more decisive influence on birth seasonality than time of marriage or attributes of temperature, rainfall, or workload. An hypothesis that links the productive cycle to conceptions through the intervening variable of diet is presented and successfully tested using several sets of data on monthly births. A direct effect of nutrition on human fertility, suggested by recent studies of reproductive performance under conditions of nutritional stress, may largely explain seasonality of conceptions and births in populations that experience significant seasonal variation in diet.The Cross Harbor data presented in this paper were collected as part of an ongoing investigation of the comparative demography and social structure of fishing, farming, and market town communities located within a particular Chinese regional system. The support of the National Science Foundation during the period of fieldwork is gratefully acknowledged. I wish to thank G. William Skinner, William H. Durham, Greg Acciaioli, Steven Sangren, Chuang Miao-huei, Harumi Befu, and Philip L. Ritter for their comments on earlier drafts of the present article. I owe a special debt of gratitude to Burton Pasternak (City University of New York), who intellectually inspired and personally encouraged the writing of this paper.     

Factors affecting black rhino monitoring in Masai Mara National Reserve, Kenya

The black rhino in Africa is slowly recovering from poaching. This has been achieved in part by maintaining ongoing monitoring as part of intensive protection and biological management. However, the efficacy of population monitoring methods has not been assessed. Rhino surveillance records and rainfall data were used to determine which ecological and operational factors affected monthly rhino sightings by vehicle patrols in Masai Mara, Kenya. Comparisons of sightings capture rates using different ground-based and aerial methods were also conducted. Stepwise multiple regression revealed a model (adjusted R ² = 0.66) predicting monthly rhino sightings with four significant factors; number of patrols, rhino population size, rainfall over the previous 2 months and a dummy variable for the month of August. The latter two variables represent the negative effects of long grass growth and the annual wildebeest migration on rhino sightings, and result in seasonal deficiencies in monitoring. During vehicle patrols, 51% of sightings were made whilst moving, and 49% were made whilst stationary and scanning with binoculars, although sightings capture rate was an order of magnitude higher when stationary. Equally, sightings capture rate from hot air balloons was twice that during vehicle-based patrols, although with less accuracy of identification. The introduction of foot patrols would increase patrol cost-effectiveness and fill seasonal troughs, thereby providing better all-round surveillance.     

Genetic, geographic, and environmental correlates of human temporal bone variation

Temporal bone shape has been shown to reflect molecular phylogenetic relationships among hominoids and offers significant morphological detail for distinguishing taxa. Although it is generally accepted that temporal bone shape, like other aspects of morphology, has an underlying genetic component, the relative influence of genetic and environmental factors is unclear. To determine the impact of genetic differentiation and environmental variation on temporal bone morphology, we used three-dimensional geometric morphometric techniques to evaluate temporal bone variation in 11 modern human populations. Population differences were investigated by discriminant function analysis, and the strength of the relationships between morphology, neutral molecular distance, geographic distribution, and environmental variables were assessed by matrix correlation comparisons. Significant differences were found in temporal bone shape among all populations, and classification rates using cross-validation were relatively high. Comparisons of morphological distances to molecular distances based on short tandem repeats (STRs) revealed a significant correlation between temporal bone shape and neutral molecular distance among Old World populations, but not when Native Americans were included. Further analyses suggested a similar pattern for morphological variation and geographic distribution. No significant correlations were found between temporal bone shape and environmental variables: temperature, annual rainfall, latitude, or altitude. Significant correlations were found between temporal bone size and both temperature and latitude, presumably reflecting Bergmann's rule. Thus, temporal bone morphology appears to partially follow an isolation by distance model of evolution among human populations, although levels of correlation show that a substantial component of variation is unexplained by factors considered here.     

Seasonality of births in South-Eastern Nigeria.

A study of seasonal pattern of births in Nigeria was conducted using data on live births for the period 1971-76 from 4 climatically similar southeastern states (Anambra, Imo, Cross River and Rivers State). After pooling the data, the monthly distribution for different years was calculated. The resulting time series was graphically compared with temperature levels during time of conception, or nine months back. Data analysis revealed a seasonal pattern in the monthly distribution of births, with the peak period observed during April-June, and a trough during November-January. Counting 9 months back, the conceptions were calculated as occuring during July, August, or September of the previous year. In terms of the annual agricultural cycle of the southeastern states, July-September corresponded with the period of light farm work or relative idleness for men (main activity during this period is weeding and tending the crops, tasks primarily done by women and children); this is also a period of abundance of fruits, vegetables and palm wine, and rains after dusk, conditions conducive to mating.     

Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics

More than a century of ecological studies have demonstrated the importance of demography in shaping spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics. Surprisingly, the impact of seasonal recruitment on infectious disease systems has received much less attention. Here, we present data encompassing 78 years of monthly natality in the USA, and reveal pronounced seasonality in birth rates, with geographical and temporal variation in both the peak birth timing and amplitude. The timing of annual birth pulses followed a latitudinal gradient, with northern states exhibiting spring/summer peaks and southern states exhibiting autumn peaks, a pattern we also observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, the amplitude of United States birth seasonality was more than twofold greater in southern states versus those in the north. Next, we examined the dynamical impact of birth seasonality on childhood disease incidence, using a mechanistic model of measles. Birth seasonality was found to have the potential to alter the magnitude and periodicity of epidemics, with the effect dependent on both birth peak timing and amplitude. In a simulation study, we fitted an susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model to simulated data, and demonstrated that ignoring birth seasonality can bias the estimation of critical epidemiological parameters. Finally, we carried out statistical inference using historical measles incidence data from New York City. Our analyses did not identify the predicted systematic biases in parameter estimates. This may be owing to the well-known frequency-locking between measles epidemics and seasonal transmission rates, or may arise from substantial uncertainty in multiple model parameters and estimation stochasticity.     

不同时间尺度北京蟒山油松树干液流对环境因子的响应

探究不同时间尺度蒸腾与环境因子的关系并明确其主控因子,对于理解蒸腾对环境响应规律和驱动机制具有重要的理论意义。以北京蟒山国家森林公园的油松为例,开展树干液流及气象指标、土壤温湿度等环境因子的长期定位观测,并分析不同时间尺度油松液流速率与环境因子的关系。研究结果表明,在日尺度上,土壤温度、大气相对湿度、土壤湿度与液流速率呈极显著正相关,这3个因子对液流速率变化的贡献量分别占28.3%、11.7%和10.1%;在月尺度上,土壤温度对液流速率的影响最大,贡献量占比49.7%,土壤湿度和相对湿度的贡献量分别为7.3%和6.4%;在年尺度上,相对湿度对液流速率的年际变化的贡献量高达93.3%,是关键控制因子。随着时间尺度的扩展,环境因子对油松液流速率的控制作用逐渐增强。本研究的结果可以为植物蒸腾的时间尺度转换、未来全球气候变化背景下植物蒸腾耗水特征的预测提供理论依据。     

Root productivity in a lowland tropical rain forest in Mexico

Fine root productivity was estimated in a lowland tropical rain forest at Los Tuxtlas (SE Mexico) and examined in relation to climatic factors. Two root diameter classes were defined (class I,<1 mm; class II, 1–3 mm). Total root productivity was estimated to 1.95 t ha^–1 year^–1, a value which is lower than those reported from other rain forest sites. Significant differences in root dry weight were found among months and between diameter classes throughout the year. Class I monthly means formed two groups: one corresponding to the months of highest precipitation, and the other to the relatively dry season. Class II monthly means also formed two groups, although these were unrelated to the regional precipitation pattern. A multiplicative regression model of productivity on precipitation was significant for both root classes when rainfall data of the previous month were used, while a linear regression model was significant only for class I roots when temperature data of two months before were used; these results suggest a delay in the effect of climatic conditions on root productivity. While the seasonal pattern of root productivity is clearly related to the annual rainfall distribution, the low total annual productivity may be related to the very high soil fertility at Los Tuxtlas.     

Sunshine,fertility and racial disparities

This research investigates the effect of sun exposure on fertility, with a special focus on how its effects and consequences for birth outcomes may differ by race. Sun exposure is a key mechanism for obtaining Vitamin D, but this process is inhibited by skin pigmentation. Vitamin D has been linked to male and female fertility and risk of miscarriage, and Vitamin D deficiency is more prevalent among blacks than whites. Using 1989–2004 individual live births data from the Natality Detail Files, county-level, monthly conceptions are estimated as a function of monthly solar insolation, temperature and humidity, as well as month, time and location fixed effects and controls. Insolation has positive, statistically significant effects on fertility for both non-Hispanic blacks and whites, but the effects are stronger and the pattern of effect different for black mothers than white mothers. Poisson estimates from the main model suggest that a 1 kWh increase in average daily insolation in the conception month – approximately the difference in sunshine experienced in the typical September vs. October – increases non-Hispanic black conceptions by 1% and non-Hispanic white conceptions by 0.6%. Allowing insolation's effect to differ by maternal characteristic suggests that the racial differences are not being driven by differences in socioeconomic status (SES). Models that allow for more complicated timing of insolation's effect further suggest that insolation pushes black (white) conceptions into the unfavorable (favorable) season of birth. These estimated effects and our decomposition analyses suggest that insolation – and the implied Vitamin D deficiency underlying its effect–helps explain why black conceptions are more likely to display a seasonal pattern that is disadvantageous to birth outcomes.     

Behavioral and Morphological Studies of Fetal Neural Transplants into SCN-Lesioned Rats

We have studied the effects of fetal neuronal grafts on the temporal pattern of drinking behavior of suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN)-lesioned adult rats. Additionally, in an independent set of animals, the immunohistochemical staining for vasopressin, vasoactive intestinal polypeptide, and neuropeptide Y and the retinal connections to the hypothalamus were studied. The behavioral experiments indicate that anterior hypothalamic transplants induced reorganization of the temporal pattern of drinking behavior when placed in the third ventricle of adult hosts bearing complete SCN lesions, but not when placed in a cavity in the occipital cortex. Such rhythmicity persists only when the animals were recorded under constant darkness but not under constant light, indicating that the restored rhythmicity was generated endogenously but that the oscillator was extremely sensitive to light. Fetal occipital cortex induced reorganization of the temporal pattern of previously arrhythmic hosts, but it disappeared when the animals were recorded under constant light or constant darkness. It is clear that this rhythmicity was exogenous. In contrast to the cortical transplants, the hypothalamic transplants showed a morphological organization similar to that found in the normal hypothalamus regardless of their placement in the host brain. From these observations it is concluded that development of neocortex is more affected by environmental factors than that of the hypothalamus. Both hypothalamic and cortical transplants induced sprouting of retinal fibers into the anterior hypothalamus and the grafted tissue. It is possible that such fibers could be the neuroanatomical substrate by which rhythmicity is induced by cortical tissue.