Identifying unusual mortality events in bats: a baseline for bat hibernation monitoring and white‐nose syndrome research

Bat population trends are particularly affected by adult mortality, especially when large numbers of individuals die, as evidenced by white‐nose syndrome in North America. We obtained baseline mortality data from 318 European hibernacula. Mortality was low and negatively associated with elevation but not with fungal infestation. Mortality events involving more than seven bats at a hibernaculum should be considered unusual, and above this threshold, pathological or microbiological analysis should be carried out. To increase understanding of mortality in bats, there is an urgent need to develop and co‐ordinate national and international programs for monitoring and investigating mortality and diseases.     

Body mass and hibernation microclimate may predict bat susceptibility to white‐nose syndrome

In multihost disease systems, differences in mortality between species may reflect variation in host physiology, morphology, and behavior. In systems where the pathogen can persist in the environment, microclimate conditions, and the adaptation of the host to these conditions, may also impact mortality. White‐nose syndrome (WNS) is an emerging disease of hibernating bats caused by an environmentally persistent fungus, Pseudogymnoascus destructans. We assessed the effects of body mass, torpid metabolic rate, evaporative water loss, and hibernaculum temperature and water vapor deficit on predicted overwinter survival of bats infected by P. destructans. We used a hibernation energetics model in an individual‐based model framework to predict the probability of survival of nine bat species at eight sampling sites across North America. The model predicts time until fat exhaustion as a function of species‐specific host characteristics, hibernaculum microclimate, and fungal growth. We fit a linear model to determine relationships with each variable and predicted survival and semipartial correlation coefficients to determine the major drivers in variation in bat survival. We found host body mass and hibernaculum water vapor deficit explained over half of the variation in survival with WNS across species. As previous work on the interplay between host and pathogen physiology and the environment has focused on species with narrow microclimate preferences, our view on this relationship is limited. Our results highlight some key predictors of interspecific survival among western bat species and provide a framework to assess impacts of WNS as the fungus continues to spread into western North America.     

Winter behavior of bats and the progression of white‐nose syndrome in the southeastern United States

Understanding the winter behavior of bats in temperate North America can provide insight into how bats react to perturbations caused by natural disturbances such as weather, human‐induced disturbances, or the introduction of disease. This study measured the activity patterns of bats outside of their hibernaculum and asked how this winter activity varied by time, temperature, bat species, body condition, and WNS status. Over the course of three winters (2011–2013), we collected acoustic data and captured bats outside of five hibernacula in Tennessee, United States. During this time, Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the causative agent of white‐nose syndrome, became established in hibernacula throughout the region, allowing us to track disease‐related changes in the winter behavior of ten bat species. We determined that bats in the southeastern United States were active during winter regardless of disease. We recorded activity outside of hibernacula at temperatures as low as ?13°C. Although bat activity was best determined by a combination of variables, the strongest factor was mean daily temperature (R ² = .2879, F _1,1450 = 586.2, p  < .0001). Bats that left the hibernacula earlier in evening had lower body condition than those that left 2–4 hr after sunset (F _7,932 = 7.225, p  < .0001, Tukey HSD, p  < .05). The number of daytime emergences from hibernacula, as determined via acoustic detection, increased the longer a site was P. destructans positive (F _{3,17 808} = 124.48, p  < .0001, Tukey HSD, p  < .05). Through the use of passive acoustic monitoring and monthly captures, we determined that winter activity was driven by both ambient temperature and the presence of P. destructans .     

Changes in hibernating tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus) roosting behavior in response to white‐nose syndrome

Understanding animals'' behavioral and physiological responses to pathogenic diseases is critical for management and conservation. One such disease, white‐nose syndrome (WNS), has greatly affected bat populations throughout eastern North America leading to significant population declines in several species. Although tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus) populations have experienced significant declines, little research has been conducted on their responses to the disease, particularly in the southeastern United States. Our objective was to document changes in tricolored bat roost site use after the appearance of WNS in a hibernaculum in the southeastern U.S. and relate these to microsite temperatures, ambient conditions, and population trends. We censused a tricolored bat hibernaculum in northwestern South Carolina, USA, once each year between February 26 and March 2, 2014–2021, and recorded species, section of the tunnel, distance from the entrance, and wall temperature next to each bat. The number of tricolored bats in the hibernaculum dropped by 90.3% during the first 3 years after the arrival of WNS. However, numbers stabilized and slightly increased from 2018 to 2021. Prior to the arrival of WNS, 95.6% of tricolored bats roosted in the back portion of the tunnel that was the warmest. After the arrival of WNS, we observed a significant increase in the proportion of bats using the front, colder portions of the tunnel, particularly during the period of population stabilization and increase. Roost temperatures of bats were also positively associated with February external temperatures. Our results suggest that greater use of the colder sections of the tunnel by tricolored bats could have led to increased survival due to slower growth rates of the fungus that causes WNS in colder temperatures or decreased energetic costs associated with colder hibernation temperatures. Thus, management actions that provide cold hibernacula may be an option for long‐term management of hibernacula, particularly in southern regions.     

Population genetic structure of a common host predicts the spread of white‐nose syndrome,an emerging infectious disease in bats

Landscape complexity influences patterns of animal dispersal, which in turn may affect both gene flow and the spread of pathogens. White‐nose syndrome (WNS) is an introduced fungal disease that has spread rapidly throughout eastern North America, causing massive mortality in bat populations. We tested for a relationship between the population genetic structure of the most common host, the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), and the geographic spread of WNS to date by evaluating logistic regression models of WNS risk among hibernating colonies in eastern North America. We hypothesized that risk of WNS to susceptible host colonies should increase with both geographic proximity and genetic similarity, reflecting historical connectivity, to infected colonies. Consistent with this hypothesis, inclusion of genetic distance between infected and susceptible colonies significantly improved models of disease spread, capturing heterogeneity in the spatial expansion of WNS despite low levels of genetic differentiation among eastern populations. Expanding our genetic analysis to the continental range of little brown myotis reveals strongly contrasting patterns of population structure between eastern and western North America. Genetic structure increases markedly moving westward into the northern Great Plains, beyond the current distribution of WNS. In western North America, genetic differentiation of geographically proximate populations often exceeds levels observed across the entire eastern region, suggesting infrequent and/or locally restricted dispersal, and thus relatively limited opportunities for pathogen introduction in western North America. Taken together, our analyses suggest a possibly slower future rate of spread of the WNS pathogen, at least as mediated by little brown myotis.     

Long‐term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation

Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short‐lived, winter–spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237%–285% across time, while two larger spring–summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1–1.5 years) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2–4 years) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (T_max) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with T_max were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines in species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicates that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change on biodiversity must consider a broad array of ecological processes.     

Anticipating white‐nose syndrome in the Southern Hemisphere: Widespread conditions favourable to Pseudogymnoascus destructans pose a serious risk to Australia's bat fauna

There is a serious concern that white‐nose syndrome (WNS), a fungal disease causing severe population declines in North American bats, could soon threaten bats on the Australian continent. Despite an ‘almost certain' risk of incursion within the next ten years, and high virulence in naïve bat populations, we remain uncertain about the vulnerability of Australian bats to WNS. In this study, we intersected occurrences for the 27 cave roosting bat species in Australia with interpolated data on mean annual surface temperature, which provides a proxy for thermal conditions within a cave and hence its suitability for growth by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans. Our analysis identifies favourable roost thermal conditions within 30–100% of the ranges of eight bat species across south‐eastern Australia, including for seven species already listed as threatened with extinction. These results demonstrate the potential for widespread exposure to P. destructans and suggest that WNS could pose a serious risk to the conservation of Australia's bat fauna. The impacts of exposure to P. destructans will depend, however, on the sensitivity of bats to developing WNS, and a more comprehensive vulnerability assessment is currently prevented by a lack of information on the hibernation biology of Australian bats. Thus, given the clear potential for widespread exposure of Australia's bats to P. destructans demonstrated by our study, two specific policy actions seem justified: (i) urgent implementation of border controls that identify and decontaminate cave‐associated fomites and (ii) dedicated funding to enable research on key aspects of bat winter behaviour and hibernation physiology. Further, as accidental translocation of this fungus could also pose a risk to other naïve bat faunas in cooler regions of southern Africa and South America, we argue that a proactive, globally coordinated approach is required to understand and mitigate the potential impacts of WNS spreading to Southern Hemisphere bats.     

The roles of morphological traits,resource variation and resource partitioning associated with the dietary niche expansion in the fish‐eating bat Myotis pilosus

Niche expansion and shifts are involved in the response and adaptation to environmental changes. However, it is unclear how niche breadth evolves and changes toward higher‐quality resources. Myotis pilosus is both an insectivore and a piscivore. We examined the dietary composition and seasonality in M. pilosus and the closely related Myotis fimbriatus using next‐generation DNA sequencing. We tested whether resource variation or resource partitioning help explain the dietary expansion from insects to fish in M. pilosus. While diet composition and diversity varied significantly between summer and autumn, the proportion of fish‐eating individuals did not significantly change between seasons in M. pilosus. Dietary overlap between M. pilosus and M. fimbriatus during the same seasons was much higher than within individual species across seasons. We recorded a larger body size, hind foot length, and body mass in M. pilosus than in M. fimbriatus and other insectivorous trawling bats from China. Similar morphological differences were found between worldwide fishing bats and nonfishing trawling bats. Our results suggest that variation in insect availability or interspecific competition may not play important roles in the dietary expansion from insects to fish in M. pilosus. Myotis pilosus has morphological advantages that may help it use fish as a diet component. The morphological advantage promoting dietary niche evolution toward higher quality resources may be more important than variation in the original resource and the effects of interspecific competition.     

Long‐term changes in ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) assemblages in Scotland

1. One‐way, directional changes in both plant and animal associations are likely to be occurring as a result of changing climate. Current knowledge of long‐term cycles in insect communities is scarce, and therefore it is difficult to assess whether the observed changes in insect communities are the first part of a long‐term trend or parts of normal cycles. 2. In this study multivariate methods were used to describe the trends in ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) assemblages over an 18‐year (1994–2011) period at two Scottish sites. In order to have a deeper insight into the underlying processes, both environmental factors and the species driving the detected changes were investigated. 3. In four out of the six sample transects, insect community compositions showed trends rather than fluctuating patterns. Hierarchical cluster analysis also revealed a clear separation, after accounting for sampling location and broad habitat, between early and later years of sampling. Decreasing annual maximum temperatures and increasing precipitation were identified as the main environmental drivers. Although increased rainfall was expected to be beneficial for hygrophilous species, in the transects in this study generalist species increased in dominance. 4. The increasing importance of generalists, in the communities studied here, underlines the vulnerability of the specialist species and urges greater effort in their conservation. Assemblage changes along different trajectories at the sites in the present study could only be tracked using multivariate methods; commonly used diversity indices proved to be unsatisfactory. Therefore, the exclusive use of simple diversity indices should be discouraged and multivariate methods should be preferred in environmental assessments and conservation planning.     

Long‐term evolutionary and ecological responses of calcifying phytoplankton to changes in atmospheric CO2

Calcifying phytoplankton play an important role in marine ecosystems and global biogeochemical cycles, affecting the transfer of both organic and inorganic carbon from the surface to the deep ocean. Coccolithophores are the most prominent members of this group, being well adapted to low‐nutrients environments (e.g., subtropical gyres). Despite urgent concerns, their response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (pCO₂) and ocean acidification is still poorly understood, and short‐term experiments may not extrapolate into longer‐term climatic adaptation. Current atmospheric pCO₂ (~390 ppmv) is unprecedented since at least 3 million years ago (Ma), and levels projected for the next century were last seen more than 34 Ma. Hence, a deep‐time perspective is needed to understand the long‐term effects of high pCO₂ on the biosphere. Here we combine a comprehensive fossil data set on coccolithophore cell size with a novel measure of ecological prominence: Summed Common Species Occurrence Rate (SCOR). The SCOR is decoupled from species richness, and captures changes in the extent to which coccolithophores were common and widespread, based on global occurrences in deep‐sea sediments. The size and SCOR records are compared to state‐of‐the‐art data on climatic and environmental changes from 50 to 5 Ma. We advance beyond simple correlations and trends to quantify the relative strength and directionality of information transfer among these records. Coccolithophores were globally more common and widespread, larger, and more heavily calcified in the pre‐34 Ma greenhouse world, and declined along with pCO₂ during the Oligocene (34–23 Ma). Our results suggest that atmospheric pCO₂ has exerted an important long‐term control on coccolithophores, directly through its availability for photosynthesis or indirectly via weathering supply of resources for growth and calcification.     

Long‐term plant community trajectories suggest divergent responses of native and non‐native perennials and annuals to vegetation removal and seeding treatments

Land managers frequently apply vegetation removal and seeding treatments to restore ecosystem function following woody plant encroachment, invasive species spread, and wildfire. However, the long‐term outcome of these treatments is unclear due to a lack of widespread monitoring. We quantified how vegetation removal (via wildfire or management) with or without seeding and environmental conditions related to plant community composition change over time in 491 sites across the intermountain western United States. Most community metrics took over 10 years to reach baseline conditions posttreatment, with the slowest recovery observed for native perennial cover. Total cover was initially higher in sites with seeding after vegetation removal than sites with vegetation removal alone, but increased faster in sites with vegetation removal only. Seeding after vegetation removal was associated with rapidly increasing non‐native perennial cover and decreasing non‐native annual cover. Native perennial cover increased in vegetation removal sites irrespective of seeding and was suppressed by increasing non‐native perennial cover. Seeding was associated with higher non‐native richness across the monitoring period as well as initially higher, then declining, total and native species richness. Several cover and richness recovery metrics were positively associated with mean annual precipitation and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, whereas relationships with weather extremes depended on the lag time and season. Our results suggest that key plant groups, such as native perennials and non‐native annuals, respond to restoration treatments at divergent timescales and with different sensitivities to climate and weather variation.     

Long‐term changes in occurrence,relative abundance,and reproductive fitness of bat species in relation to arrival of White‐nose Syndrome in West Virginia,USA

White‐nose syndrome (WNS) is a disease caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans which has resulted in the deaths of millions of bats across eastern North America. To date, hibernacula counts have been the predominant means of tracking the spread and impact of this disease on bat populations. However, an understanding of the impacts of WNS on demographic parameters outside the winter season is critical to conservation and recovery of bat populations impacted by this disease. We used long‐term monitoring data to examine WNS‐related impacts to summer populations in West Virginia, where WNS has been documented since 2009. Using capture data from 290 mist‐net sites surveyed from 2003 to 2019 on the Monongahela National Forest, we estimated temporal patterns in presence and relative abundance for each bat species. For species that exhibited a population‐level response to WNS, we investigated post‐WNS changes in adult female reproductive state and body mass. Myotis lucifugus (little brown bat), M. septentrionalis (northern long‐eared bat), and Perimyotis subflavus (tri‐colored bat) all showed significant decreases in presence and relative abundance during and following the introduction of WNS, while Eptesicus fuscus (big brown bat) and Lasiurus borealis (eastern red bat) responded positively during the WNS invasion. Probability of being reproductively active was not significantly different for any species, though a shift to earlier reproduction was estimated for E. fuscus and M. septentrionalis. For some species, body mass appeared to be influenced by the WNS invasion, but the response differed by species and reproductive state. Results suggest that continued long‐term monitoring studies, additional research into impacts of this disease on the fitness of WNS survivors, and a focus on providing optimal nonwintering habitat may be valuable strategies for assessing and promoting recovery of WNS‐affected bat populations.     

Long‐term phytoplankton community changes in a deep subalpine lake: responses to nutrient availability and climatic fluctuations

1. In natural lakes, modifications in the species composition and abundance of phytoplankton communities may ultimately be responses to changes in nutrient availability and climatic fluctuations. Phytoplankton and associated environmental factors were collected at monthly intervals from the beginning of the 1990s to 2007 in the large subalpine Lake Garda (z_max = 350 m, V = 49 × 10⁹ m³). In this study period, the lake showed a slight and continuous increase of total phosphorus (TP) in the water column, up to concentrations of 18–20 μg P L^?1. This increase represented the last stage of a long‐term process of enrichment documented since the 1970s, when concentrations of TP were below or around 10 μg P L^?1. 2. At the community level, annual phytoplankton cycles underwent a unidirectional and slow shift mainly due to changes in the species more affected by the nutrient enrichment of the lake. After a first and long period of dominance by conjugatophytes (Mougeotia) and diatoms (Fragilaria), phytoplankton biomass in recent years was sustained by cyanobacteria (Planktothrix). Other important modifications in the development of phytoplankton were superimposed on this pattern due to the effects of annual climate fluctuations principally mediated by the deep mixing events at spring overturn and, secondarily, by temperature and thermal stability of the water column during the growing season. 3. Interannual variations in the stability and temperature of the water column appeared to influence the development of a few subdominant flagellates (dinophytes and cryptophytes). Nevertheless, the major impact of climate on phytoplankton was indirect, and mediated through the effects of winter climatic conditions on deep mixing dynamics. Winter climatic fluctuations proved to be a key element in a linked chain of causal factors including cooling of hypolimnetic waters, deep vertical mixing and epilimnetic nutrient replenishment. The process of fertilisation was measurable both for TP and dissolved inorganic nitrogen, although only the first had a large effect, reinforcing the seasonal growth of a few dominant groups. The degree of nutrient replenishment further increased the spring development of large diatoms and the increase of Planktothrix in summer and autumn. 4. Currently, changes in nutrient concentrations have the greatest effect on the phytoplankton community, while direct effects due to the interannual variations in the thermal regime are of secondary importance compared with the indirect effects mediated through deep water mixing and spring fertilisation. Overall, the results demonstrate that the consequences of climatic fluctuations and climate warming on phytoplankton communities need to be studied at different levels of complexity and integration, from the direct effects of temperature and thermal regime, to the indirect effects mediated by the physiographic characteristics of water bodies.     

Evidence of region‐wide bat population decline from long‐term monitoring and Bayesian occupancy models with empirically informed priors

Strategic conservation efforts for cryptic species, especially bats, are hindered by limited understanding of distribution and population trends. Integrating long‐term encounter surveys with multi‐season occupancy models provides a solution whereby inferences about changing occupancy probabilities and latent changes in abundance can be supported. When harnessed to a Bayesian inferential paradigm, this modeling framework offers flexibility for conservation programs that need to update prior model‐based understanding about at‐risk species with new data. This scenario is exemplified by a bat monitoring program in the Pacific Northwestern United States in which results from 8 years of surveys from 2003 to 2010 require updating with new data from 2016 to 2018. The new data were collected after the arrival of bat white‐nose syndrome and expansion of wind power generation, stressors expected to cause population declines in at least two vulnerable species, little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) and the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus). We used multi‐season occupancy models with empirically informed prior distributions drawn from previous occupancy results (2003–2010) to assess evidence of contemporary decline in these two species. Empirically informed priors provided the bridge across the two monitoring periods and increased precision of parameter posterior distributions, but did not alter inferences relative to use of vague priors. We found evidence of region‐wide summertime decline for the hoary bat ( = 0.86 ± 0.10) since 2010, but no evidence of decline for the little brown bat ( = 1.1 ± 0.10). White‐nose syndrome was documented in the region in 2016 and may not yet have caused regional impact to the little brown bat. However, our discovery of hoary bat decline is consistent with the hypothesis that the longer duration and greater geographic extent of the wind energy stressor (collision and barotrauma) have impacted the species. These hypotheses can be evaluated and updated over time within our framework of pre–post impact monitoring and modeling. Our approach provides the foundation for a strategic evidence‐based conservation system and contributes to a growing preponderance of evidence from multiple lines of inquiry that bat species are declining.     

Long‐term physiological and growth responses of Himalayan fir to environmental change are mediated by mean climate

High‐elevation forests are experiencing high rates of warming, in combination with CO₂ rise and (sometimes) drying trends. In these montane systems, the effects of environmental changes on tree growth are also modified by elevation itself, thus complicating our ability to predict effects of future climate change. Tree‐ring analysis along an elevation gradient allows quantifying effects of gradual and annual environmental changes. Here, we study long‐term physiological (ratio of internal to ambient CO₂, i.e., C_i/C_a and intrinsic water‐use efficiency, iWUE) and growth responses (tree‐ring width) of Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis) trees in response to warming, drying, and CO₂ rise. Our study was conducted along elevational gradients in a dry and a wet region in the central Himalaya. We combined dendrochronology and stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) to quantify long‐term trends in C_i/C_a ratio and iWUE (δ¹³C‐derived), growth (mixed‐effects models), and evaluate climate sensitivity (correlations). We found that iWUE increased over time at all elevations, with stronger increase in the dry region. Climate–growth relations showed growth‐limiting effects of spring moisture (dry region) and summer temperature (wet region), and negative effects of temperature (dry region). We found negative growth trends at lower elevations (dry and wet regions), suggesting that continental‐scale warming and regional drying reduced tree growth. This interpretation is supported by δ¹³C‐derived long‐term physiological responses, which are consistent with responses to reduced moisture and increased vapor pressure deficit. At high elevations (wet region), we found positive growth trends, suggesting that warming has favored tree growth in regions where temperature most strongly limits growth. At lower elevations (dry and wet regions), the positive effects of CO₂ rise did not mitigate the negative effects of warming and drying on tree growth. Our results raise concerns on the productivity of Himalayan fir forests at low and middle (<3,300 m) elevations as climate change progresses.     

Long‐term warming and litter addition affects nitrogen fixation in a subarctic heath

Nitrogen (N) availability is the main constraint on primary production in most Arctic ecosystems, with microbial fixation of atmospheric N as the primary source of N input. However, there are only few reports on N fixation rates in relation to climate change in the Arctic. In order to investigate the effects of anticipated global climate change on N fixation rates in a subarctic moist heath, a field experiment was carried out in Northern Sweden. Warming was induced by plastic tents, and in order to simulate the effects of future increased tree cover, birch litter was added each fall for 9 years before the measurements. We analyzed N fixation rates on both whole‐ecosystem level and specifically on two moss species: Sphagnum warnstorfii and Hylocomium splendens. The whole‐ecosystem N fixation of the warmed plots almost tripled compared with the control plots. However, in the Sphagnum and Hylocomium mosses we observed either no change or occasionally even a decrease in N fixation after warming. Both measured on whole‐ecosystem level and on the two moss species separately, litter addition increased N fixation rates. The results suggest that warming will lead to a general increased ecosystem N input, but also that the N fixation associated to some moss species is likely to decrease. Hence, this study shows that the scale of measurements is crucial when investigating on ecosystem responses to manipulations.     

Long‐term change within a Neotropical forest: assessing differential functional and floristic responses to disturbance and drought

Disentangling the relative roles of biotic and abiotic forces influencing forest structure, function, and local community composition continues to be an important goal in ecology. Here, utilizing two forest surveys 20‐year apart from a Central American dry tropical forest, we assess the relative role of past disturbance and local climatic change in the form of increased drought in driving forest dynamics. We observe: (i) a net decrease in the number of trees; (ii) a decrease in total forest biomass by 7.7 Mg ha^?1 but when calculated on subquadrat basis the biomass per unit area did not change indicating scale sensitivity of forest biomass measures; (iii) that the decrease in the number of stems occurred mainly in the smallest sizes, and in more moist and evergreen habitats; (iv) that there has been an increase in the proportion of trees that are deciduous, compound leaved and are canopy species, and a concomitant reduction in trees that are evergreen, simple‐leaved, and understory species. These changes are opposite to predictions based on recovery from disturbance, and have resulted in (v) a uniform multivariate shift from a more mesic to a more xeric forest. Together, our results show that over relatively short time scales, community composition and the functional dominance may be more responsive to climate change than recovery to past disturbances. Our findings point to the importance of assessing proportional changes in forest composition and not just changes in absolute numbers. Our findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that tropical tree species exhibit differential sensitivity to changes in precipitation. Predicted future decreases in rainfall may result in quick differential shifts in forest function, physiognomy, and species composition. Quantifying proportional functional composition offers a basis for a predictive framework for how the structure, and diversity of tropical forests will respond to global change.