A cure for the plague of parameters: constraining models of complex population dynamics with allometries

A major goal of ecology is to discover how dynamics and structure of multi-trophic ecological communities are related. This is difficult, because whole-community data are limited and typically comprise only a snapshot of a community instead of a time series of dynamics, and mathematical models of complex system dynamics have a large number of unmeasured parameters and therefore have been only tenuously related to real systems. These are related problems, because long time-series, if they were commonly available, would enable inference of parameters. The resulting ‘plague of parameters’ means most studies of multi-species population dynamics have been very theoretical. Dynamical models parametrized using physiological allometries may offer a partial cure for the plague of parameters, and these models are increasingly used in theoretical studies. However, physiological allometries cannot determine all parameters, and the models have also rarely been directly tested against data. We confronted a model of community dynamics with data from a lake community. Many important empirical patterns were reproducible as outcomes of dynamics, and were not reproducible when parameters did not follow physiological allometries. Results validate the usefulness, when parameters follow physiological allometries, of classic differential-equation models for understanding whole-community dynamics and the structure–dynamics relationship.     

The Biology of Tiger Sharks, Galeocerdo Cuvier, in Shark Bay, Western Australia: Sex Ratio, Size Distribution, Diet, and Seasonal Changes in Catch Rates

Tiger sharks, Galeocerdo cuvier, are apex predators in a variety of nearshore ecosystems throughout the world. This study investigates the biology of tiger sharks in the shallow seagrass ecosystem of Shark Bay, Western Australia. Tiger sharks (n = 252) were the most commonly caught species (94%) compared to other large sharks. Tiger sharks ranged from 148–407cm TL. The overall sex ratio was biased towards females (1.8:1), but the sex ratio of mature animals (> 300cm TL) did not differ from 1:1. Contrary to previous accounts, tiger sharks were caught more often in all habitats during daylight hours than at night. Tiger shark catch rates were highly correlated with water temperature and were highest when water temperatures were above 19°C. The seasonal abundance of tiger sharks is correlated to both water temperature and the occurrence of their main prey: sea snakes and dugongs, Dugong dugon. Stomach contents analysis indicated that sea turtles and smaller elasmobranchs were also common prey. The importance of major seagrass grazers (dugongs and green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas) in the diet of tiger sharks suggests the possibility that these sharks are keystone predators in this ecosystem.     

Temperature,predator–prey interaction strength and population stability

Warming could strongly stabilize or destabilize populations and food webs by changing the interaction strengths between predators and their prey. Predicting the consequences of warming requires understanding how temperature affects ingestion (energy gain) and metabolism (energy loss). Here, we studied the temperature dependence of metabolism and ingestion in laboratory experiments with terrestrial arthropods (beetles and spiders). From this data, we calculated ingestion efficiencies (ingestion/metabolism) and per capita interaction strengths in the short and long term. Additionally, we investigated if and how body mass changes these temperature dependencies. For both predator groups, warming increased metabolic rates substantially, whereas temperature effects on ingestion rates were weak. Accordingly, the ingestion efficiency (the ratio of ingestion to metabolism) decreased in all treatments. This result has two possible consequences: on the one hand, it suggests that warming of natural ecosystems could increase intrinsic population stability, meaning less fluctuations in population density; on the other hand, decreasing ingestion efficiencies may also lead to higher extinction risks because of starvation. Additionally, predicted long‐term per capita interaction strengths decreased with warming, which suggests an increase in perturbation stability of populations, i.e., a higher probability of returning to the same equilibrium density after a small perturbation. Together, these results suggest that warming has complex and potentially profound effects on predator–prey interactions and food‐web stability.     

To feed or not to feed? Bioenergetic impacts of fear‐driven behaviors in lactating dolphins

In mammals, lactation can be the most energetically expensive part of the reproductive cycle. Thus, when energy needs are compromised due to predation risk, environmental disturbance, or resource scarcity, future reproductive success can be impacted. In marine and terrestrial environments, foraging behavior is inextricably linked to predation risk. But quantification of foraging energetics for lactating animals under predation risk is less understood. In this study, we used a spatially explicit individual‐based model to study how changes in physiology (lactating or not) and the environment (predation risk) affect optimal behavior in dolphins. Specifically, we predicted that an adult dolphin without calf would incur lower relative energetic costs compared to a lactating dolphin with calf regardless of predation risk severity, antipredator behavior, or prey quality consumed. Under this state‐dependent analysis of risk approach, we found predation risk to be a stronger driver in affecting total energetic costs (foraging plus locomotor costs) than food quality for both dolphin types. Further, contrary to our hypothesis, after accounting for raised energy demands, a lactating dolphin with calf does not necessarily have higher relative‐to‐baseline costs than a dolphin without calf. Our results indicate that both a lactating (with calf) and non‐lactating dolphin incur lowered energetic costs under a risk‐averse behavioral scheme, but consequently suffer from lost foraging calories. A lactating dolphin with calf could be particularly worse off in lost foraging calories under elevated predation risk, heightened vigilance, and increased hiding time relative to an adult dolphin without calf. Further, hiding time in refuge could be more consequential than detection distance for both dolphin types in estimated costs and losses incurred. In conclusion, our study found that reproductive status is an important consideration in analyzing risk effects in mammals, especially in animals with lengthy lactation periods and those exposed to both biological and nonbiological stressors.