Effects of climate on occurrence and size of large fires in a northern hardwood landscape: historical trends,forecasts, and implications for climate change in Témiscamingue,Québec

Questions: What climate variables best explain fire occurrence and area burned in the Great Lakes‐St Lawrence forest of Canada? How will climate change influence these climate variables and thereby affect the occurrence of fire and area burned in a deciduous forest landscape in Témiscamingue, Québec, Canada? Location: West central Québec and the Great Lakes‐St Lawrence forest of Canada. Methods: We first used an information‐theoretic framework to evaluate the relative role of different weather variables in explaining occurrence and area burned of large fires (>200 ha, 1959‐1999) across the Great Lakes‐St Lawrence forest region. Second, we examined how these weather variables varied historically in Témiscamingue and, third, how they may change between the present and 2100 according to different scenarios of climate change based on two Global Circulation Models. Results: Mean monthly temperature maxima during the fire season (Apr‐Oct) and weighted sequences of dry spells best explained fire occurrence and area burned. Between 1910 and 2004, mean monthly temperature maxima in Témiscamingue showed no apparent temporal trend, while dry spell sequences decreased in frequency and length. All future scenarios show an increase in mean monthly temperature maxima, and one model scenario forecasts an increase in dry spell sequences, resulting in a slight increase in forecasted annual area burned. Conclusion: Despite the forecasted increase in fire activity, effects of climate change on fire will not likely affect forest structure and composition as much as natural succession or harvesting and other disturbances, principally because of the large relative difference in area affected by these processes.     

Climate and satellite-derived land cover for predicting breeding bird distribution in the Great Lakes Basin

Aim We examined relationships between breeding bird distribution of 10 forest songbirds in the Great Lakes Basin, large‐scale climate and the distribution of land cover types as estimated by advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and multi‐spectral scanner (MSS) land cover classifications. Our objective was to examine the ability of regional climate, AVHRR (1 km resolution) land cover and MSS (200 m resolution) land cover to predict the distribution of breeding forest birds at the scale of the Great Lakes Basin and at the resolution of Breeding Bird Atlas data (5–10 km²). Specifically we addressed the following questions. (1) How well do AVHRR or MSS classifications capture the variation in distribution of bird species? (2) Is one land cover classification more useful than the other for predicting distribution? (3) How do models based on climate compare with models based on land cover? (4) Can the combination of both climate and land cover improve the predictive ability of these models. Location Modelling was conducted over the area of the Great Lakes Basin including parts of Ontario, Canada and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania Wisconsin, and Minnesota, USA. Methods We conducted single variable logistic regression with the forest classes of AVHRR and MSS land cover using evidence of breeding as the response variable. We conducted multiple logistic regression with stepwise selection to select models from five sets of explanatory variables (AVHRR, MSS, climate, AVHRR + climate, MSS + climate). Results Generally, species were related to both AVHRR and MSS land cover types in the direction expected based on the known local habitat use of the species. Neither land cover classification appeared to produce consistently more intuitive results. Good models were generated using each of the explanatory data sets examined here. And at least one but usually all five variable sets produced acceptable or excellent models for each species. Main conclusions Both climate and large scale land cover were effective predictors of the distribution of the 10 forest bird species examined here. Models generated from these data had good classification accuracy of independent validation data. Good models were produced from all explanatory data sets or combinations suggesting that the distribution of climate, AVHRR land cover, and MSS land cover all captured similar variance in the distribution of the birds. It is difficult to separate the effects of climate and vegetation on the species’ distributions at this scale.     

Gene flow in complex landscapes: testing multiple hypotheses with causal modeling

Predicting population-level effects of landscape change depends on identifying factors that influence population connectivity in complex landscapes. However, most putative movement corridors and barriers have not been based on empirical data. In this study, we identify factors that influence connectivity by comparing patterns of genetic similarity among 146 black bears (Ursus americanus), sampled across a 3,000-km(2) study area in northern Idaho, with 110 landscape-resistance hypotheses. Genetic similarities were based on the pairwise percentage dissimilarity among all individuals based on nine microsatellite loci (average expected heterozygosity=0.79). Landscape-resistance hypotheses describe a range of potential relationships between movement cost and land cover, slope, elevation, roads, Euclidean distance, and a putative movement barrier. These hypotheses were divided into seven organizational models in which the influences of barriers, distance, and landscape features were statistically separated using partial Mantel tests. Only one of the competing organizational models was fully supported: patterns of genetic structure are primarily related to landscape gradients of land cover and elevation. The alternative landscape models, isolation by barriers and isolation by distance, are not supported. In this black bear population, gene flow is facilitated by contiguous forest cover at middle elevations.     

A comparison of regression methods for model selection in individual‐based landscape genetic analysis

Anthropogenic migration barriers fragment many populations and limit the ability of species to respond to climate‐induced biome shifts. Conservation actions designed to conserve habitat connectivity and mitigate barriers are needed to unite fragmented populations into larger, more viable metapopulations, and to allow species to track their climate envelope over time. Landscape genetic analysis provides an empirical means to infer landscape factors influencing gene flow and thereby inform such conservation actions. However, there are currently many methods available for model selection in landscape genetics, and considerable uncertainty as to which provide the greatest accuracy in identifying the true landscape model influencing gene flow among competing alternative hypotheses. In this study, we used population genetic simulations to evaluate the performance of seven regression‐based model selection methods on a broad array of landscapes that varied by the number and type of variables contributing to resistance, the magnitude and cohesion of resistance, as well as the functional relationship between variables and resistance. We also assessed the effect of transformations designed to linearize the relationship between genetic and landscape distances. We found that linear mixed effects models had the highest accuracy in every way we evaluated model performance; however, other methods also performed well in many circumstances, particularly when landscape resistance was high and the correlation among competing hypotheses was limited. Our results provide guidance for which regression‐based model selection methods provide the most accurate inferences in landscape genetic analysis and thereby best inform connectivity conservation actions.     

Combining ecological niche modelling and morphology to assess the range‐wide population genetic structure of bobcats (Lynx rufus)

Despite a broad distribution, general habitat requirements, and a large dispersal potential, bobcats (Lynx rufus) exhibit a genetic division that longitudinally transects central North America. We investigated (1) whether the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 kya) isolated bobcats into refugia and also whether the current climate influences gene flow between the segregate populations and (2) whether the geographical patterns in cranial morphology reflect population identity. We created ecological niche models (ENMs) to evaluate climatic suitability and to estimate distributions of the disparate populations under both historical (LGM) and contemporary conditions. We used two‐dimensional geometric morphometric methods to evaluate variations in the cranium and mandible. These variations were then regressed across geographical variables to assess morphological differences throughout the range of the bobcat. ENMs projected onto LGM climate provided evidence of refugia during the LGM via increased suitability in the north‐west and south‐east portions of this species' range. Contemporarily, our models suggest that the Great Plains may be restricting bobcat migration and gene flow, effectively maintaining disparate populations. Morphological analyses identified a significant linear trend in shape variation across latitudinal and longitudinal gradients rather than distinct morphological divergence between lineages. Similar shape variations, however, did converge in approximate locations of assumed refugia. The findings of the present study provide a robust assessment of the biogeographical considerations for the population genetic structure of bobcats.     

Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America

The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.     

Quantifying long-term phenological patterns of aerial insectivores roosting in the Great Lakes region using weather surveillance radar

Organisms have been shifting their timing of life history events (phenology) in response to changes in the emergence of resources induced by climate change. Yet understanding these patterns at large scales and across long time series is often challenging. Here we used the US weather surveillance radar network to collect data on the timing of communal swallow and martin roosts and evaluate the scale of phenological shifts and its potential association with temperature. The discrete morning departures of these aggregated aerial insectivores from ground-based roosting locations are detected by radars around sunrise. For the first time, we applied a machine learning algorithm to automatically detect and track these large-scale behaviors. We used 21 years of data from 12 weather surveillance radar stations in the Great Lakes region to quantify the phenology in roosting behavior of aerial insectivores at three spatial levels: local roost cluster, radar station, and across the Great Lakes region. We show that their peak roosting activity timing has advanced by 2.26 days per decade at the regional scale. Similar signals of advancement were found at the station scale, but not at the local roost cluster scale. Air temperature trends in the Great Lakes region during the active roosting period were predictive of later stages of roosting phenology trends (75% and 90% passage dates). Our study represents one of the longest-term broad-scale phenology examinations of avian aerial insectivore species responding to environmental change and provides a stepping stone for examining potential phenological mismatches across trophic levels at broad spatial scales.     

Tree-ring growth varies with climate and stand density in a red pine plantation forest in the Great Lakes region of North America

Red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) was widely planted across the Great Lakes region of North America in the early 20th century to restore tree cover to degraded forest and agricultural lands. In this study, a dendrochronological assessment of radial growth response to climate was conducted in an 82-year-old, previously thinned red pine plantation forest in southern Ontario, Canada. Climate-growth relationships were analyzed at multi-monthly and annual time scales using a 72-year residual growth chronology (1942–2013). Warmer temperatures and periodic drought during the current and previous growing seasons were associated with decreased growth, while higher precipitation during the early part of the current growing season was associated with increased growth. Moving interval correlation analysis of long-term trends indicated that climate-growth relations were temporally unstable due to thinning and variation in climate over the length of the chronology. The correlation between climate and growth was stronger when stand density was relatively high and diminished in the two decades following thinning. These results indicate that growth of red pine plantations near the species’ southern range limit may be much reduced if exposed to a warmer, drier future climate and that periodic thinning can help mitigate the impacts of future climate change on these plantations.     

Distinctiveness in the face of gene flow: hybridization between specialist and generalist gartersnakes

Patterns of divergence and polymorphism across hybrid zones can provide important clues as to their origin and maintenance. Unimodal hybrid zones or hybrid swarms are composed predominantly of recombinant individuals whose genomes are patchworks of alleles derived from each parental lineage. In contrast, bimodal hybrid zones contain few identifiable hybrids; most individuals fall within distinct genetic clusters. Distinguishing between hybrid swarms and bimodal hybrid zones can be important for taxonomic and conservation decisions regarding the status and value of hybrid populations. In addition, the causes of bimodality are important in understanding the generation and maintenance of biological diversity. For example, are distinct clusters mostly reproductively isolated and co‐adapted gene complexes, or can distinctiveness be maintained by a few ‘genomic islands’ despite rampant gene flow across much of the genome? Here we focus on three patterns of distinctiveness in the face of gene flow between gartersnake taxa in the Great Lakes region of North America. Bimodality, the persistence of distinct clusters of genotypes, requires strong barriers to gene flow and supports recognition of distinct specialist (Thamnophis butleri) and generalist (Thamnophis radix) taxa. Concordance of DNA‐based clusters with morphometrics supports the hypothesis that trophic morphology is a key component of divergence. Finally, disparity in the level of differentiation across molecular markers (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) indicates that distinctiveness is maintained by strong selection on a few traits despite high gene flow currently or in the recent past.     

Intercontinental long‐distance seed dispersal across the Mediterranean Basin explains population genetic structure of a bird‐dispersed shrub

Long‐distance dispersal (LDD) is a pivotal process for plants determining their range of distribution and promoting gene flow among distant populations. Most fleshy‐fruited species rely on frugivorous vertebrates to disperse their seeds across the landscape. While LDD events are difficult to record, a few ecological studies have shown that birds move a sizeable number of ingested seeds across geographic barriers, such as sea straits. The foraging movements of migrant frugivores across distant populations, including those separated by geographic barriers, creates a constant flow of propagules that in turn shapes the spatial distributions of the genetic variation in populations. Here, we have analysed the genetic diversity and structure of 74 populations of Pistacia lentiscus, a fleshy‐fruited shrub widely distributed in the Mediterranean Basin, to elucidate whether the Mediterranean Sea acts as a geographic barrier or alternatively whether migratory frugivorous birds promote gene flow among populations located on both sides of the sea. Our results show reduced genetic distances among populations, including intercontinental populations, and they show a significant genetic structure across an eastern‐western axis. These findings are consistent with known bird migratory routes that connect the European and African continents following a north‐southwards direction during the fruiting season of many fleshy‐fruited plants. Further, approximate Bayesian analysis failed to explain the observed patterns as a result of historical population migrations at the end of Last Glacial Maximum. Therefore, anthropic and/or climatic changes that would disrupt the migratory routes of frugivorous birds might have genetic consequences for the plant species they feed upon.     

Landscape genetic analyses reveal fine‐scale effects of forest fragmentation in an insular tropical bird

Within the framework of landscape genetics, resistance surface modelling is particularly relevant to explicitly test competing hypotheses about landscape effects on gene flow. To investigate how fragmentation of tropical forest affects population connectivity in a forest specialist bird species, we optimized resistance surfaces without a priori specification, using least‐cost (LCP) or resistance (IBR) distances. We implemented a two‐step procedure in order (i) to objectively define the landscape thematic resolution (level of detail in classification scheme to describe landscape variables) and spatial extent (area within the landscape boundaries) and then (ii) to test the relative role of several landscape features (elevation, roads, land cover) in genetic differentiation in the Plumbeous Warbler (Setophaga plumbea). We detected a small‐scale reduction of gene flow mainly driven by land cover, with a negative impact of the nonforest matrix on landscape functional connectivity. However, matrix components did not equally constrain gene flow, as their conductivity increased with increasing structural similarity with forest habitat: urban areas and meadows had the highest resistance values whereas agricultural areas had intermediate resistance values. Our results revealed a higher performance of IBR compared to LCP in explaining gene flow, reflecting suboptimal movements across this human‐modified landscape, challenging the common use of LCP to design habitat corridors and advocating for a broader use of circuit theory modelling. Finally, our results emphasize the need for an objective definition of landscape scales (landscape extent and thematic resolution) and highlight potential pitfalls associated with parameterization of resistance surfaces.     

Climate and land use changes will degrade the configuration of the landscape for titi monkeys in eastern Brazil

Land use changes have profound effects on populations of Neotropical primates, and ongoing climate change is expected to aggravate this scenario. The titi monkeys from eastern Brazil (Callicebus personatus group) have been particularly affected by this process, with four of the five species now allocated to threatened conservation status categories. Here, we estimate the changes in the distribution of these titi monkeys caused by changes in both climate and land use. We also use demographic‐based, functional landscape metrics to assess the magnitude of the change in landscape conditions for the distribution predicted for each species. We built species distribution models (SDMs) based on maximum entropy for current and future conditions (2070), allowing for different global circulation models and contrasting scenarios of glasshouse gas concentrations. We refined the SDMs using a high‐resolution map of habitat remnants. We then calculated habitat availability and connectivity based on home‐range size and the dispersal limitations of the individual, in the context of a predicted loss of 10% of forest cover in the future. The landscape configuration is predicted to be degraded for all species, regardless of the climatic settings. This include reductions in the total cover of forest remnants, patch size and functional connectivity. As the landscape configuration should deteriorate severely in the future for all species, the prevention of further loss of populations will only be achieved through habitat restoration and reconnection to counteract the negative effects for these and several other co‐occurring species.     

Mapping amphibian contact zones and phylogeographical break hotspots across the United States

Identifying congruence in the geographical position of lineage breaks and species range limits across multiple taxa is a focus of the field of comparative phylogeography. These regions are biogeographical hotspots for investigations into the processes driving divergence at multiple phylogenetic levels. We used spatially explicit statistical methods to identify these regions for amphibians across the United States. Significant clustering occurred in the Appalachian Mountains and in the general area of Alabama - a region underappreciated as an important amphibian hotspot. When the orders Caudata and Anura were examined separately, spatial clustering was still found in Alabama for both. However, in Caudata the Appalachians and California were also important, and for Anura, the Great Lakes region was highlighted. When species richness was statistically controlled, cluster hotspots shifted out of Alabama and the Appalachians and moved to broader swaths of the Great Lakes region, southwestern United States and California. The exact location of particular suture zones is probably a result of complex interactions between historical and ecological factors including physiography, climate and distance from glacial refugia. These contact zone and phylogeographical break hotspots are ideal arenas in which to test alternative speciation hypotheses and examine the extent of reproductive isolation using novel, integrative approaches combining modern methods in statistical phylogeography, ecological niche modelling and genomics.     

Phylogeography of the pademelons (Marsupialia: Macropodidae: Thylogale) in New Guinea reflects both geological and climatic events during the Plio‐Pleistocene

Aim Alternative hypotheses concerning genetic structuring of the widespread endemic New Guinean forest pademelons (Thylogale) based on current taxonomy and zoogeography (northern, southern and montane species groupings) and preliminary genetic findings (western and eastern regional groupings) are investigated using mitochondrial sequence data. We examine the relationship between the observed phylogeographical structure and known or inferred geological and historical environmental change during the late Tertiary and Quaternary. Location New Guinea and associated islands. Methods We used primarily museum specimen collections to sample representatives from Thylogale populations across New Guinea and three associated islands. Mitochondrial cytochrome b and control region sequence data were used to construct phylogenies and estimate the timing of population divergence. Results Phylogenetic analyses indicated subdivision of pademelons into ‘eastern’ and ‘western’ regional clades. This was largely due to the genetic distinctiveness of north‐eastern and eastern peninsula populations, as the ‘western’ clade included samples from the northern, southern and central regions of New Guinea. Two tested island groups were closely related to populations north of the Central Cordillera; low genetic differentiation of pademelon populations between north‐eastern New Guinea and islands of the Bismarck Archipelago is consistent with late Pleistocene human‐mediated translocations, while the Aru Islands population showed divergence consistent with cessation of gene flow in the mid Pleistocene. There was relatively limited genetic divergence between currently geographically isolated populations in subalpine and nearby mid‐montane or lowland regions. Main conclusions Phylogeographical structuring does not conform to zoogeographical expectations of a north/south division across the cordillera, nor to current species designations, for this generalist forest species complex. Instead, the observed genetic structuring of Thylogale populations has probably been influenced by geological changes and Pleistocene climatic changes, in particular the recent uplift of the north‐eastern Huon Peninsula and the lowering of tree lines during glacial periods. Low sea levels during glacial maxima also allowed gene flow between the continental Aru Island group and New Guinea. More work is needed, particularly multi‐taxon comparative studies, to further develop and test phylogeographical hypotheses in New Guinea.     

Fine‐scale habitat selection by sympatric Canada lynx and bobcat

The Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and the bobcat (Lynx rufus) are closely related species with overlap at their range peripheries, but the factors that limit each species and the interactions between them are not well understood. Habitat selection is a hierarchical process, in which selection at higher orders (geographic range, home range) may constrain selection at lower orders (within the home range). Habitat selection at a very fine scale within the home range has been less studied for both lynx and bobcat compared to selection at broader spatiotemporal scales. To compare this fourth‐order habitat selection by the two species in an area of sympatry, we tracked lynx and bobcat during the winters of 2017 and 2018 on the north shore of Lake Huron, Ontario. We found that both lynx and bobcat selected shallower snow, higher snowshoe hare abundance, and higher amounts of coniferous forest at the fourth order. However, the two species were spatially segregated at the second order, and lynx were found in areas with deeper snow, more snowshoe hare, and more coniferous forest. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that the lynx and bobcat select different resources at the second order, assorting along an environmental gradient in the study area, and that competition is unlikely to be occurring between the two species at finer scales.     

Where to Restore Ecological Connectivity? Detecting Barriers and Quantifying Restoration Benefits

Landscape connectivity is crucial for many ecological processes, including dispersal, gene flow, demographic rescue, and movement in response to climate change. As a result, governmental and non-governmental organizations are focusing efforts to map and conserve areas that facilitate movement to maintain population connectivity and promote climate adaptation. In contrast, little focus has been placed on identifying barriers—landscape features which impede movement between ecologically important areas—where restoration could most improve connectivity. Yet knowing where barriers most strongly reduce connectivity can complement traditional analyses aimed at mapping best movement routes. We introduce a novel method to detect important barriers and provide example applications. Our method uses GIS neighborhood analyses in conjunction with effective distance analyses to detect barriers that, if removed, would significantly improve connectivity. Applicable in least-cost, circuit-theoretic, and simulation modeling frameworks, the method detects both complete (impermeable) barriers and those that impede but do not completely block movement. Barrier mapping complements corridor mapping by broadening the range of connectivity conservation alternatives available to practitioners. The method can help practitioners move beyond maintaining currently important areas to restoring and enhancing connectivity through active barrier removal. It can inform decisions on trade-offs between restoration and protection; for example, purchasing an intact corridor may be substantially more costly than restoring a barrier that blocks an alternative corridor. And it extends the concept of centrality to barriers, highlighting areas that most diminish connectivity across broad networks. Identifying which modeled barriers have the greatest impact can also help prioritize error checking of land cover data and collection of field data to improve connectivity maps. Barrier detection provides a different way to view the landscape, broadening thinking about connectivity and fragmentation while increasing conservation options.     

Fire and the relative roles of weather,climate and landscape characteristics in the Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence forest of Canada

Question: In deciduous‐dominated forest landscapes, what are the relative roles of fire weather, climate, human and biophysical landscape characteristics for explaining variation in large fire occurrence and area burned? Location: The Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence forest of Canada. Methods: We characterized the recent (1959–1999) regime of large (≥ 200 ha) fires in 26 deciduous‐dominated landscapes and analysed these data in an information‐theoretic framework to compare six hypotheses that related fire occurrence and area burned to fire weather severity, climate normals, population and road densities, and enduring landscape characteristics such as surficial deposits and large lakes. Results: 392 large fires burned 833 698 ha during the study period, annually burning on average 0.07%± 0.42% of forested area in each landscape. Fire activity was strongly seasonal, with most fires and area burned occurring in May and June. A combination of antecedent‐winter precipitation, fire season precipitation deficit/surplus and percent of landscape covered by well‐drained surficial deposits best explained fire occurrence and area burned. Fire occurrence varied only as a function of fire weather and climate variables, whereas area burned was also explained by percent cover of aspen and pine stands, human population density and two enduring characteristics: percent cover of large water bodies and glaciofluvial deposits. Conclusion: Understanding the relative role of these variables may help design adaptation strategies for forecasted increases in fire weather severity by allowing (1) prioritization of landscapes according to enduring characteristics and (2) management of their composition so that substantially increased fire activity would be necessary to transform landscape structure and composition.     

Species-Habitat Relationships and Priority Areas for Marsh-Breeding Birds in Ontario

Populations of marsh-breeding birds have declined throughout the southern Laurentian Great Lakes basin. To advance conservation of these species, we used occupancy modeling, a regional prioritization scheme, and data from Birds Canada's Great Lakes Marsh Monitoring Program (2016–2018) to describe species-habitat relationships and identify priority habitat areas for 7 obligate marsh-breeding bird species in southern Ontario, Canada: American bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), common gallinule (Gallinula galeata), least bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), marsh wren (Cistothorus palustris), pied-billed grebe (Podilymbus podiceps), sora (Porzana carolina), and Virginia rail (Rallus limicola). Given these species respond to land cover at widely varying spatial scales, we initially identified the most informative scale (buffer = 100 m, 200 m, 400 m, 800 m, 1,600 m, 3,200 m, or 6,400 m) for marsh, urban, agricultural, and forest cover to increase model performance. We also considered climate variables, whether sample sites were along a Great Lakes coastline or inland, and covariates influencing detection. Occupancy was best explained by land cover at a wide range of spatial scales depending on the species. All species except Virginia rail responded positively to marsh cover; American bittern and Virginia rail responded negatively to urban cover; least bittern, pied-billed grebe, and Virginia rail responded negatively and sora responded positively to agricultural cover; and American bittern, common gallinule, marsh wren, and pied-billed grebe responded negatively and Virginia rail responded positively to forest cover. Only American bittern responded negatively to mean May–June temperature; only pied-billed grebe responded positively to start of growing season; and only Virginia rail had higher occupancy at inland marshes compared to coastal. We combined predictions from the best model for each of 5 species with reasonably good model fit (we excluded sora and Virginia rail) to identify priority habitat areas for marsh-breeding birds. Expansion of wetland conservation work from existing priority areas based on waterfowl to also include these new additional priority areas based on marsh-breeding birds will be an important step towards conservation of all birds, and will help slow or maybe even reverse declining population trends. Some restoration activities outside but adjacent to priority areas will also be important for rebuilding marshes for these species across this intensively farmed and developed region. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

The influence of changing climate on the ecology and management of selected Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries

The Laurentian Great Lakes Basin provides an ecological system to evaluate the potential effect of climate change on dynamics of fish populations and the management of their fisheries. This review describes the physical and biological mechanisms by which fish populations will be affected by changes in timing and duration of ice cover, precipitation events and temperature regimes associated with projected climate change in the Great Lakes Basin with a principal focus on the fish communities in shallower regions of the basin. Lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis, walleye Sander vitreus and smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were examined to assess the potential effects of climate change on guilds of Great Lakes cold, cool and warm-water fishes, respectively. Overall, the projections for these fishes are for the increased thermally suitable habitat within the lakes, though in different regions than they currently inhabit. Colder-water fishes will seek refuge further north and deeper in the water column and warmer-water fishes will fill the vacated habitat space in the warmer regions of the lakes. While these projections can be modified by a number of other habitat elements (e.g. anoxia, ice cover, dispersal ability and trophic productivity), it is clear that climate-change drivers will challenge the nature, flexibility and public perception of current fisheries management programmes. Fisheries agencies should develop decision support tools to provide a systematic method for incorporating ecological responses to climate change and moderating public interests to ensure a sustainable future for Great Lakes fishes and fisheries.     

Broad- to fine-scale population genetic patterning in the smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu across the Laurentian Great Lakes and beyond: an interplay of behaviour and geography

Analysis of population genetic relationships reveals the signatures of current processes such as spawning behaviour and migration, as well as those of historical events including vicariance and climate change. This study examines these signatures through testing broad‐ to fine‐scale genetic patterns among smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu spawning populations across their native Great Lakes range and outgroup areas, with fine‐scale concentration in Lake Erie. Our primary hypotheses include whether genetic patterns result from behavioural and/or geographical isolation, specifically: (i) Are spawning groups in interconnected waterways genetically separable? (ii) What is the degree of isolation across and among lakes, basins, and tributaries? (iii) Do genetic divergences correspond to geographical distances? and (iv) Are historical colonization patterns from glacial refugia retained? Variation at eight nuclear microsatellite DNA loci are analysed for 666 smallmouth bass from 28 locations, including 425 individuals in Lake Erie; as well as Lakes Superior, Huron, and Ontario, and outgroups from the Mississippi, Ohio, St. Lawrence, and Hudson River drainages. Results reveal marked genetic differences among lake and river populations, as well as surprisingly high divergences among closely spaced riverine sites. Results do not fit an isolation‐by‐geographical‐distance prediction for fine‐scale genetic patterns, but show weak correspondence across large geographical scales. Genetic relationships thus are consistent with hypotheses regarding divergent origins through vicariance in glacial refugia, followed by colonization pathways establishing modern‐day Great Lakes populations, and maintenance through behavioural site fidelity. Conservation management practices thus should preserve genetic identity and unique characters among smallmouth bass populations.