Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests

Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process‐based growth model (cenw ) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO₂ concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO₂ concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid‐range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO₂ concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances.     

Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: Implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change

Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation, especially in long‐lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of F_ST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using >4200 genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in southeastern Australia. Eighty‐one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive, based on significance in F_ST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70/81), aridity (37/81) or precipitation (35/81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes, with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies, with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations, we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations, or would benefit from assisted gene migration, requires further evaluation. In some populations, the absence or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together, these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographic level for maintaining species’ evolutionary potential.     

Using restoration as an experimental framework to test provenancing strategies and climate adaptability

Restoring degraded Australian landscapes through revegetation is a key concern of land holders, NGOs and government agencies. With the advent of climate change, it is increasingly important that revegetation activities take into consideration the species and provenance of plant materials to ensure that environmental plantings will be resilient to future climate conditions. A major strength of the past 30 years restoration programmes is the development of a distributed network of educated and experienced practitioners. We have recently invited stakeholders from among this network to participate in a process to cost‐effectively build Environmental Research Infrastructure – a nationally distributed network of restoration plantings that explore a broad range of research activities including a better understanding of the adaptive responses of different species and provenances. This would also facilitate long‐term monitoring of change and adaptation across Australia, providing a wealth of information to inform future conservation and restoration programmes.     

Virus disease in wheat predicted to increase with a changing climate

Current atmospheric CO₂ levels are about 400 μmol mol^?1 and are predicted to rise to 650 μmol mol^?1 later this century. Although the positive and negative impacts of CO₂ on plants are well documented, little is known about interactions with pests and diseases. If disease severity increases under future environmental conditions, then it becomes imperative to understand the impacts of pathogens on crop production in order to minimize crop losses and maximize food production. Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) adversely affects the yield and quality of economically important crops including wheat, barley and oats. It is transmitted by numerous aphid species and causes a serious disease of cereal crops worldwide. This study examined the effects of ambient (aCO₂; 400 μmol mol^?1) and elevated CO₂ (eCO₂; 650 μmol mol^?1) on noninfected and BYDV‐infected wheat. Using a RT‐qPCR technique, we measured virus titre from aCO₂ and eCO₂ treatments. BYDV titre increased significantly by 36.8% in leaves of wheat grown under eCO₂ conditions compared to aCO₂. Plant growth parameters including height, tiller number, leaf area and biomass were generally higher in plants exposed to higher CO₂ levels but increased growth did not explain the increase in BYDV titre in these plants. High virus titre in plants has been shown to have a significant negative effect on plant yield and causes earlier and more pronounced symptom expression increasing the probability of virus spread by insects. The combination of these factors could negatively impact food production in Australia and worldwide under future climate conditions. This is the first quantitative evidence that BYDV titre increases in plants grown under elevated CO₂ levels.     

Plant functional traits mediate reproductive phenology and success in response to experimental warming and snow addition in Tibet

Global climate change is predicted to have large impacts on the phenology and reproduction of alpine plants, which will have important implications for plant demography and community interactions, trophic dynamics, ecosystem energy balance, and human livelihoods. In this article we report results of a 3‐year, fully factorial experimental study exploring how warming, snow addition, and their combination affect reproductive phenology, effort, and success of four alpine plant species belonging to three different life forms in a semiarid, alpine meadow ecosystem on the central Tibetan Plateau. Our results indicate that warming and snow addition change reproductive phenology and success, but responses are not uniform across species. Moreover, traits associated with resource acquisition, such as rooting depth and life history (early vs. late flowering), mediate plant phenology, and reproductive responses to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, we found that warming delayed the reproductive phenology and decreased number of inflorescences of Kobresia pygmaea C. B. Clarke, a shallow‐rooted, early‐flowering plant, which may be mainly constrained by upper‐soil moisture availability. Because K. pygmaea is the dominant species in the alpine meadow ecosystem, these results may have important implications for ecosystem dynamics and for pastoralists and wildlife in the region.     

Local adaptation,genetic divergence,and experimental selection in a foundation grass across the US Great Plains’ climate gradient

Many prior studies have uncovered evidence for local adaptation using reciprocal transplant experiments. However, these studies are rarely conducted for a long enough time to observe succession and competitive dynamics in a community context, limiting inferences for long‐lived species. Furthermore, the genetic basis of local adaptation and genetic associations with climate has rarely been identified. Here, we report on a long‐term (6‐year) experiment conducted under natural conditions focused on Andropogon gerardii, the dominant grass of the North American Great Plains tallgrass ecosystem. We focus on this foundation grass that comprises 80% of tallgrass prairie biomass and is widely used in 20,000 km² of restoration. Specifically, we asked the following questions: (a) Whether ecotypes are locally adapted to regional climate in realistic ecological communities. (b) Does adaptive genetic variation underpin divergent phenotypes across the climate gradient? (c) Is there evidence of local adaptation if the plants are exposed to competition among ecotypes in mixed ecotype plots? Finally, (d) are local adaptation and genetic divergence related to climate? Reciprocal gardens were planted with 3 regional ecotypes (originating from dry, mesic, wet climate sources) of Andropogon gerardii across a precipitation gradient (500–1,200 mm/year) in the US Great Plains. We demonstrate local adaptation and differentiation of ecotypes in wet and dry environments. Surprisingly, the apparent generalist mesic ecotype performed comparably under all rainfall conditions. Ecotype performance was underpinned by differences in neutral diversity and candidate genes corroborating strong differences among ecotypes. Ecotype differentiation was related to climate, primarily rainfall. Without long‐term studies, wrong conclusions would have been reached based on the first two years. Further, restoring prairies with climate‐matched ecotypes is critical to future ecology, conservation, and sustainability under climate change.     

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) offers sustainable bioenergy production and resilience to climate change

Biomass production on low‐grade land is needed to meet future energy demands and minimize resource conflicts. This, however, requires improvements in plant water‐use efficiency (WUE) that are beyond conventional C3 and C4 dedicated bioenergy crops. Here we present the first global‐scale geographic information system (GIS)‐based productivity model of two highly water‐efficient crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) candidates: Agave tequilana and Opuntia ficus‐indica. Features of these plants that translate to WUE advantages over C3 and C4 bioenergy crops include nocturnal stomatal opening, rapid rectifier‐like root hydraulic conductivity responses to fluctuating soil water potential and the capacity to buffer against periods of drought. Yield simulations for the year 2070 were performed under the four representative concentration pathway (RCPs) scenarios presented in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report. Simulations on low‐grade land suggest that O. ficus‐indica alone has the capacity to meet ‘extreme’ bioenergy demand scenarios (>600 EJ yr^?1) and is highly resilient to climate change (?1%). Agave tequilana is moderately impacted (?11%). These results are significant because bioenergy demand scenarios >600 EJ yr^?1 could be met without significantly increasing conflicts with food production and contributing to deforestation. Both CAM candidates outperformed the C4 bioenergy crop, Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass) in arid zones in the latitudinal range 30°S–30°N.     

Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species

Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061–2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought‐prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future.     

Characterizing the contribution of plasticity and genetic differentiation to community‐level trait responses to environmental change

The match between functional trait variation in communities and environmental gradients is maintained by three processes: phenotypic plasticity and genetic differentiation (intraspecific processes), and species turnover (interspecific). Recently, evidence has emerged suggesting that intraspecific variation might have a potentially large role in driving functional community composition and response to environmental change. However, empirical evidence quantifying the respective importance of phenotypic plasticity and genetic differentiation relative to species turnover is still lacking. We performed a reciprocal transplant experiment using a common herbaceous plant species (Oxalis montana) among low‐, mid‐, and high‐elevation sites to first quantify the contributions of plasticity and genetic differentiation in driving intraspecific variation in three traits: height, specific leaf area, and leaf area. We next compared the contributions of these intraspecific drivers of community trait–environment matching to that of species turnover, which had been previously assessed along the same elevational gradient. Plasticity was the dominant driver of intraspecific trait variation across elevation in all traits, with only a small contribution of genetic differentiation among populations. Local adaptation was not detected to a major extent along the gradient. Fitness components were greatest in O. montana plants with trait values closest to the local community‐weighted means, thus supporting the common assumption that community‐weighted mean trait values represent selective optima. Our results suggest that community‐level trait responses to ongoing climate change should be mostly mediated by species turnover, even at the small spatial scale of our study, with an especially small contribution of evolutionary adaptation within species.     

Behavioral constraints on local adaptation and counter‐gradient variation: Implications for climate change

Resource allocation to growth, reproduction, and body maintenance varies within species along latitudinal gradients. Two hypotheses explaining this variation are local adaptation and counter‐gradient variation. The local adaptation hypothesis proposes that populations are adapted to local environmental conditions and are therefore less adapted to environmental conditions at other locations. The counter‐gradient variation hypothesis proposes that one population out performs others across an environmental gradient because its source location has greater selective pressure than other locations. Our study had two goals. First, we tested the local adaptation and counter‐gradient variation hypotheses by measuring effects of environmental temperature on phenotypic expression of reproductive traits in the burying beetle, Nicrophorus orbicollis Say, from three populations along a latitudinal gradient in a common garden experimental design. Second, we compared patterns of variation to evaluate whether traits covary or whether local adaptation of traits precludes adaptive responses by others. Across a latitudinal range, N. orbicollis exhibits variation in initiating reproduction and brood sizes. Consistent with local adaptation: (a) beetles were less likely to initiate breeding at extreme temperatures, especially when that temperature represents their source range; (b) once beetles initiate reproduction, source populations produce relatively larger broods at temperatures consistent with their local environment. Consistent with counter‐gradient variation, lower latitude populations were more successful at producing offspring at lower temperatures. We found no evidence for adaptive variation in other adult or offspring performance traits. This suite of traits does not appear to coevolve along the latitudinal gradient. Rather, response to selection to breed within a narrow temperature range may preclude selection on other traits. Our study highlights that N. orbicollis uses temperature as an environmental cue to determine whether to initiate reproduction, providing insight into how behavior is modified to avoid costly reproductive attempts. Furthermore, our results suggest a temperature constraint that shapes reproductive behavior.     

Intrapopulation variability in a functional trait: Susceptibility of Daphnia to limitation by dietary fatty acids

1. Functional traits are measurable characteristics of an organism that have an impact on its fitness. Variation in functional traits between and among species has been suggested to represent the basis for competition and selection, thus allowing for evolution in natural populations.
2. In freshwater ecosystems, the availability of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), in particular ω3‐ and ω6‐PUFAs, determines the food quality of phytoplankton for the herbivorous zooplankton Daphnia, an unselective filter feeder. The content of such essential PUFAs in the phytoplankton is thus a functional phytoplankton trait affecting the trophic transfer efficiency and dynamics at the pelagic plant–herbivore interface.
3. In turn, the susceptibility of consumers to become limited by the availability of essential PUFAs is a fitness‐determining trait of Daphnia genotypes, and variability of this herbivore trait may thus affect the daphnids’ intrapopulation competition. To estimate the intrapopulation variation in susceptibility, we isolated clonal lines of Daphnia longispina from a natural population and compared the strength of their limitation by dietary PUFA availability via standardised laboratory growth assays. We used a liposome supplementation technique to enrich a PUFA‐poor green alga with essential ω3‐ and ω6‐PUFAs and determined juvenile somatic growth rate of different D. longispina genotypes as a fitness proxy.
4. As expected, D. longispina genotypes that coexisted in a natural population differed markedly in their specific patterns of susceptibility to dietary PUFA availability. On average, the D. longispina population was more strongly susceptible to limitations in the availability of the ω6‐PUFA arachidonic acid (20:4ω6) than to limitations in the availability of ω3‐PUFAs α‐linolenic acid (18:3ω3) and eicosapentaenoic acid (20:5ω3).
5. The ability to cope with PUFA limitation is thus a crucial trait that can probably affect intraspecific competition and Daphnia population structure. Therefore, we suggest that such intrapopulation variation in susceptibility to absence of dietary PUFAs might be one of the driving forces of natural selection and local adaptation among freshwater zooplankton.

     

Contrasting responses to climate change at Himalayan treelines revealed by population demographics of two dominant species

1. Alpine treelines are expected to shift upward due to recent climate change. However, interpretation of changes in montane systems has been problematic because effects of climate change are frequently confounded with those of land use changes. The eastern Himalaya, particularly Langtang National Park, Central Nepal, has been relatively undisturbed for centuries and thus presents an opportunity for studying climate change impacts on alpine treeline uncontaminated by potential confounding factors.
2. We studied two dominant species, Abies spectabilis (AS) and Rhododendron campanulatum (RC), above and below the treeline on two mountains. We constructed 13 transects, each spanning up to 400 m in elevation, in which we recorded height and state (dead or alive) of all trees, as well as slope, aspect, canopy density, and measures of anthropogenic and animal disturbance.
3. All size classes of RC plants had lower mortality above treeline than below it, and young RC plants (<2 m tall) were at higher density above treeline than below. AS shows little evidence of a position change from the historic treeline, with a sudden extreme drop in density above treeline compared to below. Recruitment, as measured by size–class distribution, was greater above treeline than below for both species but AS is confined to ~25 m above treeline whereas RC is luxuriantly growing up to 200 m above treeline.
4. Synthesis. Evidence suggests that the elevational limits of RC have shifted upward both because (a) young plants above treeline benefited from facilitation of recruitment by surrounding vegetation, allowing upward expansion of recruitment, and (b) temperature amelioration to mature plants increased adult survival. We predict that the current pure stand of RC growing above treeline will be colonized by AS that will, in turn, outshade and eventually relegate RC to be a minor component of the community, as is the current situation below the treeline.

     

Climate‐driven habitat change causes evolution in Threespine Stickleback

Climate change can shape evolution directly by altering abiotic conditions or indirectly by modifying habitats, yet few studies have investigated the effects of climate‐driven habitat change on contemporary evolution. We resampled populations of Threespine Stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) along a latitudinal gradient in California bar‐built estuaries to examine their evolution in response to changing climate and habitat. We took advantage of the strong association between stickleback lateral plate phenotypes and Ectodysplasin A (Eda) genotypes to infer changes in allele frequencies over time. Our results show that over time the frequency of low‐plated alleles has generally increased and heterozygosity has decreased. Latitudinal patterns in stickleback plate phenotypes suggest that evolution at Eda is a response to climate‐driven habitat transformation rather than a direct consequence of climate. As climate change has reduced precipitation and increased temperature and drought, bar‐built estuaries have transitioned from lotic (flowing‐water) to lentic (still‐water) habitats, where the low‐plated allele is favoured. The low‐plated allele has achieved fixation at the driest, hottest southernmost sites, a trend that is progressing northward with climate change. Climate‐driven habitat change is therefore causing a reduction in genetic variation that may hinder future adaptation for populations facing multiple threats.     

Summer aridity rather than management shapes fitness‐related functional traits of the threatened mountain plant Arnica montana

Semi‐natural mountain grasslands are increasingly exposed to environmental stress under climate change. However, which are the environmental factors that limit plants in these grasslands? Also, is the present management effective against these changes? Fitness‐related functional traits may offer a way to detect changes in performance and provide new insights into their vulnerability to climate change. We investigated changes in performance and variability of functional traits of the mountain grassland target species Arnica montana along a climate gradient in Central German low mountain ranges. This gradient represents at its lower end climate conditions that are expected at its upper end under future climate change. We measured vegetative, generative, and physiological traits to account for multiple ways of plant responses to the environment. Using mixed effects and multivariate models, we evaluated changes in trait values among individuals as well as the variability of their populations in order to assess performance under changing summer aridity and different management regimes. Fitness‐related performance of most traits showed strongly positive associations with reduced summer aridity at higher elevations, while only specific leaf area and leaf dry matter content showed no association. This suggests a higher performance level at less arid montane sites and that the physiological traits are less sensitive to this climate change factor. The coefficient of variation of almost all traits declined steadily with decreasing site aridity. We suggest that this reduced variability indicates a lower environmental stress level for A. montana toward its environmental optimum at montane elevations, especially because the trait performance increased simultaneously. Surprisingly, management factors and habitat characteristics had only low influence on both trait performance and variability. In summary, summer aridity had a stronger effect to shape the trait performance and variability of A. montana under increased environmental stress than management and other habitat characteristics.     

Variability of functional traits and their syndromes in a freshwater fish species (Phoxinus phoxinus): The role of adaptive and nonadaptive processes

Functional traits can covary to form “functional syndromes.” Describing and understanding functional syndromes is an important prerequisite for predicting the effects of organisms on ecosystem functioning. At the intraspecific level, functional syndromes have recently been described, but very little is known about their variability among populations and—if they vary—what the ecological and evolutionary drivers of this variation are. Here, we quantified and compared the variability in four functional traits (body mass, metabolic rate, excretion rate, and boldness), their covariations and the subsequent syndromes among thirteen populations of a common freshwater fish (the European minnow, Phoxinus phoxinus). We then tested whether functional traits and their covariations, as well as the subsequent syndromes, were underpinned by the phylogenetic relatedness among populations (historical effects) or the local environment (i.e., temperature and predation pressure), and whether adaptive (selection or plasticity) or nonadaptive (genetic drift) processes sustained among‐population variability. We found substantial among‐population variability in functional traits and trait covariations, and in the emerging syndromes. We further found that adaptive mechanisms (plasticity and/or selection) related to water temperature and predation pressure modulated the covariation between body mass and metabolic rate. Other trait covariations were more likely driven by genetic drift, suggesting that nonadaptive processes can also lead to substantial differences in trait covariations among populations. Overall, we concluded that functional syndromes are population‐specific, and that both adaptive and nonadaptive processes are shaping functional traits. Given the pivotal role of functional traits, differences in functional syndromes within species provide interesting perspectives regarding the role of intraspecific diversity for ecosystem functioning.     

胡杨叶功能性状特征及其对地下水埋深的响应

叶片性状反映了植物对环境的适应能力及其自我调控能力。以塔里木干旱荒漠区建群种胡杨（Populus euphratica）为研究对象,通过分析自然生长状况下胡杨叶功能性状对地下水埋深（GWD）的响应及功能性状间的权衡关系,揭示胡杨对极端干旱荒漠环境的生态适应策略。结果表明：胡杨7个叶功能性状种内变异程度不同（9.20%-40.02%）,叶面积（LA）变异程度最大,叶干物质含量（LDMC）与叶片含水量（LWC）变异程度较低,GWD梯度上表现出较大的分化变异特征。叶性状在不同GWD之间差异显著（P<0.05）,与GWD呈极显著相关（P<0.01）。比叶面积（SLA）、LA、LWC与叶干重（LDM）呈极显著正相关（P<0.01）,与叶厚度（LT）、叶组织密度（LTD）、LDMC呈极显著的负相关（P<0.01）;LDMC与LT、LTD,LWC与LA、SLA呈极显著正相关（P<0.01）,反映胡杨通过叶性状间的相互调节与权衡来适应干旱荒漠环境。逐步回归分析表明LA、LT对GWD变化最敏感,可间接借助这2个性状来预测干旱荒漠区地下水埋深变化。随GWD降低,胡杨SLA、LA、LDM、LWC减小,而LT、LTD、LDMC增大,其由高生长速率、资源利用能力的开拓型策略转变为以增强自身养分储存、防御能力的保守型策略,拓宽了生态幅和增强其在干旱逆境的适合度。可见,极端干旱荒漠区胡杨形成了小的LA、SLA、LDM,大的LT、LDMC、LTD等一系列有利于减少水分散失、储存养分和增强耐旱能力的干旱性状组合,这可能是其适应干旱贫瘠环境的生态策略。     

The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche‐modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population‐level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.