Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause‐of‐death assignments for modeling of cause‐specific mortality

Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause‐specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes‐of‐death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause‐specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause‐of‐death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event‐time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause‐of‐death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause‐of‐death assignment in modeling of cause‐specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause‐specific survival data for white‐tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection results changed between the two approaches, and incorporating observer knowledge in cause‐of‐death increased the variability associated with parameter estimates when compared to the traditional approach. These differences between the two approaches can impact reported results, and therefore, it is critical to explicitly incorporate expert knowledge in statistical methods to ensure rigorous inference.     

Increases in residential and energy development are associated with reductions in recruitment for a large ungulate

Land‐use change due to anthropogenic development is pervasive across the globe and commonly associated with negative consequences for biodiversity. While land‐use change has been linked to shifts in the behavior and habitat‐use patterns of wildlife species, little is known about its influence on animal population dynamics, despite the relevance of such information for conservation. We conducted the first broad‐scale investigation correlating temporal patterns of land‐use change with the demographic rates of mule deer, an iconic species in the western United States experiencing wide‐scale population declines. We employed a unique combination of long‐term (1980–2010) data on residential and energy development across western Colorado, in conjunction with congruent data on deer recruitment, to quantify annual changes in land‐use and correlate those changes with annual indices of demographic performance. We also examined annual variation in weather conditions, which are well recognized to influence ungulate productivity, and provided a basis for comparing the relative strength of different covariates in their association with deer recruitment. Using linear mixed models, we found that increasing residential and energy development within deer habitat were correlated with declining recruitment rates, particularly within seasonal winter ranges. Residential housing had two times the magnitude of effect of any other factor we investigated, and energy development had an effect size similar to key weather variables known to be important to ungulate dynamics. This analysis is the first to correlate a demographic response in mule deer with residential and energy development at large spatial extents relevant to population performance, suggesting that further increases in these development types on deer ranges are not compatible with the goal of maintaining highly productive deer populations. Our results underscore the significance of expanding residential development on mule deer populations, a factor that has received little research attention in recent years, despite its rapidly increasing footprint across the landscape.     

Genome‐wide analyses suggest parallel selection for universal traits may eclipse local environmental selection in a highly mobile carnivore

Ecological and environmental heterogeneity can produce genetic differentiation in highly mobile species. Accordingly, local adaptation may be expected across comparatively short distances in the presence of marked environmental gradients. Within the European continent, wolves (Canis lupus) exhibit distinct north–south population differentiation. We investigated more than 67‐K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci for signatures of local adaptation in 59 unrelated wolves from four previously identified population clusters (northcentral Europe n = 32, Carpathian Mountains n = 7, Dinaric‐Balkan n = 9, Ukrainian Steppe n = 11). Our analyses combined identification of outlier loci with findings from genome‐wide association study of individual genomic profiles and 12 environmental variables. We identified 353 candidate SNP loci. We examined the SNP position and neighboring megabase (1 Mb, one million bases) regions in the dog (C. lupus familiaris) genome for genes potentially under selection, including homologue genes in other vertebrates. These regions included functional genes for, for example, temperature regulation that may indicate local adaptation and genes controlling for functions universally important for wolves, including olfaction, hearing, vision, and cognitive functions. We also observed strong outliers not associated with any of the investigated variables, which could suggest selective pressures associated with other unmeasured environmental variables and/or demographic factors. These patterns are further supported by the examination of spatial distributions of the SNPs associated with universally important traits, which typically show marked differences in allele frequencies among population clusters. Accordingly, parallel selection for features important to all wolves may eclipse local environmental selection and implies long‐term separation among population clusters.     

Ice‐dependent winter survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon

Changes in snow and ice conditions are some of the most distinctive impacts of global warming in cold temperate and Arctic regions, altering the environment during a critical period for survival for most animals. Laboratories studies have suggested that reduced ice cover may reduce the survival of stream dwelling fishes in Northern environments. This, however, has not been empirically investigated in natural populations in large rivers. Here, we examine how the winter survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon in a large natural river, the River Alta (Norway, 70°N), is affected by the presence or absence of surface ice. Apparent survival rates for size classes corresponding to parr and presmolts were estimated using capture‐mark‐recapture and Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber models for an ice‐covered and an ice‐free site. Apparent survival (Φ) in the ice‐covered site was greater than in the ice‐free site, but did not depend on size class (0.64 for both parr and presmolt). In contrast, apparent survival in the ice‐free site was lower for larger individuals (0.33) than smaller individuals (0.45). The over‐winter decline in storage energy was greater for the ice‐free site than the ice‐covered site, suggesting that environmental conditions in the ice‐free site caused a strong depletion in energy reserves likely affecting survival. Our findings highlight the importance of surface ice for the winter survival of juvenile fish, thus, underpinning that climate change, by reducing ice cover, may have a negative effect on the survival of fish adapted to ice‐covered habitats during winter.     

Co‐occurrence of bobcats,coyotes, and ocelots in Texas

Interspecific competition among carnivores has been linked to differences in behavior, morphology, and resource use. Insights into these interactions can enhance understanding of local ecological processes that can have impacts on the recovery of endangered species, such as the ocelot (Leopardus pardalis). Ocelots, bobcats (Lynx rufus), and coyotes (Canis latrans) share a small geographic range overlap from South Texas to south‐central Mexico but relationships among the three are poorly understood. From May 2011 to March 2018, we conducted a camera trap study to examine co‐occurrence patterns among ocelots, bobcats, and coyotes on the East Foundation's El Sauz Ranch in South Texas. We used a novel multiseason extension to multispecies occupancy models with ≥2 interacting species to conduct an exploratory analysis to examine interspecific interactions and examine the potential effects of patch‐level and landscape‐level metrics relative to the occurrence of these carnivores. We found strong evidence of seasonal mutual coexistence among all three species and observed a species‐specific seasonal trend in detection. Seasonal coexistence patterns were also explained by increasing distance from a high‐speed roadway. However, these results have important ecological implications for planning ocelot recovery in the rangelands of South Texas. This study suggests a coexistence among ocelots, bobcats, and coyotes under the environmental conditions on the El Sauz Ranch. Further research would provide a better understanding of the ecological mechanisms that facilitate coexistence within this community. As road networks in the region expand over the next few decades, large private working ranches will be needed to provide important habitat for ocelots and other carnivore species.     

A single‐nucleotide polymorphism‐based approach for rapid and cost‐effective genetic wolf monitoring in Europe based on noninvasively collected samples

Noninvasive genetics based on microsatellite markers has become an indispensable tool for wildlife monitoring and conservation research over the past decades. However, microsatellites have several drawbacks, such as the lack of standardisation between laboratories and high error rates. Here, we propose an alternative single‐nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)‐based marker system for noninvasively collected samples, which promises to solve these problems. Using nanofluidic SNP genotyping technology (Fluidigm), we genotyped 158 wolf samples (tissue, scats, hairs, urine) for 192 SNP loci selected from the Affymetrix v2 Canine SNP Array. We carefully selected an optimised final set of 96 SNPs (and discarded the worse half), based on assay performance and reliability. We found rates of missing data in this SNP set of <10% and genotyping error of ~1%, which improves genotyping accuracy by nearly an order of magnitude when compared to published data for other marker types. Our approach provides a tool for rapid and cost‐effective genotyping of noninvasively collected wildlife samples. The ability to standardise genotype scoring combined with low error rates promises to constitute a major technological advancement and could establish SNPs as a standard marker for future wildlife monitoring.     

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.     

Drought reshuffles plant phenology and reduces the foraging benefit of green‐wave surfing for a migratory ungulate

To increase resource gain, many herbivores pace their migration with the flush of nutritious plant green‐up that progresses across the landscape (termed “green‐wave surfing”). Despite concerns about the effects of climate change on migratory species and the critical role of plant phenology in mediating the ability of ungulates to surf, little is known about how drought shapes the green wave and influences the foraging benefits of migration. With a 19 year dataset on drought and plant phenology across 99 unique migratory routes of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in western Wyoming, United States, we show that drought shortened the duration of spring green‐up by approximately twofold (2.5 weeks) and resulted in less sequential green‐up along migratory routes. We investigated the possibility that some routes were buffered from the effects of drought (i.e., routes that maintained long green‐up duration irrespective of drought intensity). We found no evidence of drought‐buffered routes. Instead, routes with the longest green‐up in non‐drought years also were the most affected by drought. Despite phenological changes along the migratory route, mule deer closely followed drought‐altered green waves during migration. Migrating deer did not experience a trophic mismatch with the green wave during drought. Instead, the shorter window of green‐up caused by drought reduced the opportunity to accumulate forage resources during rapid spring migrations. Our work highlights the synchronization of phenological events as an important mechanism by which climate change can negatively affect migratory species by reducing the temporal availability of key food resources. For migratory herbivores, climate change poses a new and growing threat by altering resource phenology and diminishing the foraging benefit of migration.     

Extreme climatic events constrain space use and survival of a ground‐nesting bird

Two fundamental issues in ecology are understanding what influences the distribution and abundance of organisms through space and time. While it is well established that broad‐scale patterns of abiotic and biotic conditions affect organisms’ distributions and population fluctuations, discrete events may be important drivers of space use, survival, and persistence. These discrete extreme climatic events can constrain populations and space use at fine scales beyond that which is typically measured in ecological studies. Recently, a growing body of literature has identified thermal stress as a potential mechanism in determining space use and survival. We sought to determine how ambient temperature at fine temporal scales affected survival and space use for a ground‐nesting quail species (Colinus virginianus; northern bobwhite). We modeled space use across an ambient temperature gradient (ranging from ?20 to 38 °C) through a maxent algorithm. We also used Andersen–Gill proportional hazard models to assess the influence of ambient temperature‐related variables on survival through time. Estimated available useable space ranged from 18.6% to 57.1% of the landscape depending on ambient temperature. The lowest and highest ambient temperature categories (35 °C, respectively) were associated with the least amount of estimated useable space (18.6% and 24.6%, respectively). Range overlap analysis indicated dissimilarity in areas where Colinus virginianus were restricted during times of thermal extremes (range overlap = 0.38). This suggests that habitat under a given condition is not necessarily a habitat under alternative conditions. Further, we found survival was most influenced by weekly minimum ambient temperatures. Our results demonstrate that ecological constraints can occur along a thermal gradient and that understanding the effects of these discrete events and how they change over time may be more important to conservation of organisms than are average and broad‐scale conditions as typically measured in ecological studies.     

Nest survival is influenced by parental behaviour and heterospecifics in a mixed‐species colony

Studies of avian nest success often focus on examining influences of variation in environmental and seasonal factors. However, in‐depth evaluations can also incorporate variation in individual incubation behaviour to further advance our understanding of avian reproductive ecology. We examined these relationships in colonially nesting Black‐crowned Night‐Herons Nycticorax nycticorax using intensive video‐monitoring methods to quantify incubation behaviours. We modelled nest survival as a function of both extrinsic factors and incubation behaviours over a 3‐year period (2010–12) on Alcatraz Island, USA. Model‐averaged parameter estimates indicated that nest survival increased as a function of greater incubation constancy (% of time spent incubating eggs within a 24‐h period), and average daily precipitation throughout the nesting stage. Common Ravens Corvus corax are the only known nest predator of Night‐Herons on Alcatraz Island, as on many other coastal Pacific islands. We also investigated the effects of heterospecific nesting of California Gulls Larus californicus and Western Gulls Larus occidentalis in a mixed‐species colony with Night‐Herons, based on nesting proximity data collected over a 2‐year period (2011–12). This second analysis indicated that, in addition to incubation behaviours, nesting heterospecifics are an important factor for explaining variation in Night‐Heron nest survival. However, contrary to our original expectation, we found that Night‐Herons experienced increased nest survival with increasing distance from gull colony boundaries. These results may apply to other areas with multiple colonial nesting species and similar predator communities and climatic patterns.     

Species‐Specific PCR‐Based Assay for Identification and Detection of Phomopsis (Diaporthe) azadirachtae Causing Die‐Back Disease in Azadirachta indica

Die‐back disease caused by Phomopsis (Diaporthe) azadirachtae is the devastating disease of Azadirachta indica. Accurate identification of P. azadirachtae is always problematic due to morphological plasticity and delayed appearance of conidia. A species‐specific PCR‐based assay was developed for rapid and reliable identification of P. azadirachtae by designing a species‐specific primer‐targeting ITS region of P. azadirachtae isolates. The assay was validated with DNA isolated from different Phomopsis species and other fungal isolates. The PCR assay amplified 313‐bp product from all the isolates of P. azadirachtae and not from any other Phomopsis species or any genera indicating its specificity. The assay successfully detected the pathogen DNA in naturally and artificially infected neem seeds and twigs indicating its applicability in seed quarantine and seed health testing. The sensitivity of the assay was 100 fg when genomic DNA of all isolates was analysed. The PCR‐based assay was 92% effective in comparison with seed plating technique in detecting the pathogen. This is the first report on the development of species‐specific PCR assay for identification and detection of P. azadirachtae. Thus, PCR‐based assay developed is very specific, rapid, confirmatory and sensitive tool for detection of pathogen P. azadirachtae at early stages.     

Identifying unusual mortality events in bats: a baseline for bat hibernation monitoring and white‐nose syndrome research

Bat population trends are particularly affected by adult mortality, especially when large numbers of individuals die, as evidenced by white‐nose syndrome in North America. We obtained baseline mortality data from 318 European hibernacula. Mortality was low and negatively associated with elevation but not with fungal infestation. Mortality events involving more than seven bats at a hibernaculum should be considered unusual, and above this threshold, pathological or microbiological analysis should be carried out. To increase understanding of mortality in bats, there is an urgent need to develop and co‐ordinate national and international programs for monitoring and investigating mortality and diseases.     

Changes in structure of over‐ and midstory tree species in a Mediterranean‐type forest after an extreme drought‐associated heatwave

Worldwide, extreme climatic events such as drought and heatwaves are associated with forest mortality. However, the precise drivers of tree mortality at individual and stand levels vary considerably, with substantial gaps in knowledge across studies in biomes and continents. In 2010–2011, a drought‐associated heatwave occurred in south‐western Australia and drove sudden and rapid forest canopy collapse. Working in the Northern Jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) Forest, we quantified the response of key overstory (E. marginata, Corymbia calophylla) and midstory (Banksia grandis, Allocasuarina fraseriana) tree species to the extreme climate event. Using transects spanning a gradient of drought impacts (minimal (50–100 m), transitional (100–150 m) and severe (30–60 m)), tree species mortality in relation to stand characteristics (stand basal area and stem density) and edaphic factors (soil depth) was determined. We show differential mortality between the two overstory species and the two midstory species corresponding to the drought‐associated heatwave. The dominant overstory species, E. marginata, had significantly higher mortality (~19%) than C. calophylla (~7%) in the severe zone. The midstory species, B. grandis, demonstrated substantially higher mortality (~59%) than A. fraseriana (~4%) in the transitional zone. Banksia grandis exhibited a substantial shift in structure in response to the drought‐associated heatwave in relation to tree size, basal area and soil depth. This study illustrates the role of climate extremes in driving ecosystem change and highlights the critical need to identify and quantify the resulting impact to help predict future forest die‐off events and to underpin forest management and conservation.     

Dampening effects of long‐term experimental drought on growth and mortality rates of a Holm oak forest

Forests respond to increasing intensities and frequencies of drought by reducing growth and with higher tree mortality rates. Little is known, however, about the long‐term consequences of generally drier conditions and more frequent extreme droughts. A Holm oak forest was exposed to experimental rainfall manipulation for 13 years to study the effect of increasing drought on growth and mortality of the dominant species Quercus ilex, Phillyrea latifolia, and Arbutus unedo. The drought treatment reduced stem growth of A. unedo (?66.5%) and Q. ilex (?17.5%), whereas P. latifolia remained unaffected. Higher stem mortality rates were noticeable in Q. ilex (+42.3%), but not in the other two species. Stem growth was a function of the drought index of early spring in the three species. Stem mortality rates depended on the drought index of winter and spring for Q. ilex and in spring and summer for P. latifolia, but showed no relation to climate in A. unedo. Following a long and intense drought (2005–2006), stem growth of Q. ilex and P. latifolia increased, whereas it decreased in A. unedo. Q. ilex also enhanced its survival after this period. Furthermore, the effect of drought treatment on stem growth in Q. ilex and A. unedo was attenuated as the study progressed. These results highlight the different vulnerabilities of Mediterranean species to more frequent and intense droughts, which may lead to partial species substitution and changes in forest structure and thus in carbon uptake. The response to drought, however, changed over time. Decreased intra‐ and interspecific competition after extreme events with high mortality, together with probable morphological and physiological acclimation to drought during the study period, may, at least in the short term, buffer forests against drier conditions. The long‐term effects of drought consequently deserve more attention, because the ecosystemic responses are unlikely to be stable over time.Nontechnical summaryIn this study, we evaluate the effect of long‐term (13 years) experimental drought on growth and mortality rates of three forest Mediterranean species, and their response to the different intensities and durations of natural drought. We provide evidence for species‐specific responses to drought, what may eventually lead to a partial community shift favoring the more drought‐resistant species. However, we also report a dampening of the treatment effect on the two drought‐sensitive species, which may indicate a potential adaptation to drier conditions at the ecosystem or population level. These results are thus relevant to account for the stabilizing processes that would alter the initial response of ecosystem to drought through changes in plant physiology, morphology, and demography compensation.     

Resistance,tolerance and environmental transmission dynamics determine host extinction risk in a load‐dependent amphibian disease

While disease‐induced extinction is generally considered rare, a number of recently emerging infectious diseases with load‐dependent pathology have led to extinction in wildlife populations. Transmission is a critical factor affecting disease‐induced extinction, but the relative importance of transmission compared to load‐dependent host resistance and tolerance is currently unknown. Using a combination of models and experiments on an amphibian species suffering extirpations from the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), we show that while transmission from an environmental Bd reservoir increased the ability of Bd to invade an amphibian population and the extinction risk of that population, Bd‐induced extinction dynamics were far more sensitive to host resistance and tolerance than to Bd transmission. We demonstrate that this is a general result for load‐dependent pathogens, where non‐linear resistance and tolerance functions can interact such that small changes in these functions lead to drastic changes in extinction dynamics.     

Variation in two phases of post‐winter development of a butterfly

The temporal aspects of life cycle characteristics, such as diapause development, are under strong selection in seasonal environments. Fine‐tuning of the life cycle may be particularly important to match the phenology of potential mates and resources as well as for optimizing abiotic conditions at eclosion. Here, we experimentally study the spring phenology of the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines, by analysing post‐winter pupal development in three populations along a latitudinal cline in each of Sweden and the United Kingdom. These countries differ substantially in their seasonal temperature profile. By repeatedly recording pupal weights, we established that post‐winter development has two separate phases, with a more rapid weight loss in the second phase than in the first, likely corresponding to a ramping up of the rate of development. Variation in the duration of the first phase contributed more strongly than the second phase to the differences in phenology between the localities and sexes. We found that insects from Sweden had a faster overall rate of development than those from the United Kingdom, which is consistent with countergradient variation, as Sweden is colder during the spring than the United Kingdom. Similar trends were not observed at the within‐country scale, however. A cogradient pattern was found within Sweden, with populations from the north developing more slowly, and there was no clear latitudinal trend within the United Kingdom. In all localities, males developed faster than females. Our results point to the importance of variation in the progression of post‐winter development for spring phenology.     

Distribution and human‐caused mortality of Persian leopards Panthera pardus saxicolor in Iran,based on unpublished data and Farsi gray literature

Gray literature and data from unpublished sources can provide important scientific information that has not been published scientifically. The Persian leopard (hereafter leopard) Panthera pardus saxicolor is classed as endangered on the Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and also is one of the least‐studied subspecies of leopard. It occurs in the Caucasus and Central and Southwest Asia. Iran contains more than 75% of the leopard's extant range, and the leopard population in this country serves as a source for neighboring countries. In this study, we determined the distribution and human‐caused mortality of leopards in Iran, by reviewing unpublished data and Farsi gray literature (which includes government reports) between 1 January 2010 and 30 December 2018. We created the most recent distribution map of the leopard in Iran. Our data display that human‐caused mortality of leopard in Iran mostly includes poaching and intentional poisoning, and roadkill.     

Combined effects of spray‐drying conditions and postdrying storage time and temperature on Salmonella choleraesuis and Salmonella typhimurium survival when inoculated in liquid porcine plasma

The objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness of the spray‐drying process on the inactivation of Salmonella choleraesuis and Salmonella typhimurium spiked in liquid porcine plasma and to test the additive effect of immediate postdrying storage. Commercial spray‐dried porcine plasma was sterilized by irradiation and then reconstituted (1:9) with sterile water. Aliquots of reconstituted plasma were inoculated with either S. choleraesuis or S. typhimurium, subjected to spray‐drying at an inlet temperature of 200°C and an outlet temperature of either 71 or 80°C, and each spray‐drying temperature combinations were subjected to either 0, 30 or 60 s of residence time (RT) as a simulation of residence time typical of commercial dryers. Spray‐dried samples were stored at either 4·0 ± 3·0°C or 23·0 ± 0·3°C for 15 days. Bacterial counts of each Salmonella spp., were completed for all samples. For both Salmonella spp., spray‐drying at both outlet temperatures reduced bacterial counts about 3 logs at RT 0 s, while there was about a 5·5 log reduction at RT 60 s. Storage of all dried samples at either 4·0 ± 3·0°C or 23·0 ± 0·3°C for 15 days eliminate all detectable bacterial counts of both Salmonella spp.

Significance and Impact of the Study

Safety of raw materials from animal origin like spray‐dried porcine plasma (SDPP) may be a concern for the swine industry. Spray‐drying process and postdrying storage are good inactivation steps to reduce the bacterial load of Salmonella choleraesuis and Salmonella typhimurium. For both Salmonella spp., spray‐drying at 71°C or 80°C outlet temperatures reduced bacterial counts about 3 log at residence time (RT) 0 s, while there was about a 5.5 log reduction at RT 60 s. Storage of all dried samples at either 4.0 ± 3.0°C or 23.0 ± 0.3°C for 15 days was effective for eliminating detectable bacterial counts of both Salmonella spp.     

Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

The impact of reproductive investment and early‐life environmental conditions on senescence: support for the disposable soma hypothesis

Several hypotheses have been put forward to explain the evolution of senescence. One of the leading hypotheses, the disposable soma hypothesis, predicts a trade‐off, whereby early‐life investment in reproduction leads to late‐life declines in survival (survival senescence). Testing this hypothesis in natural populations is challenging, but important for understanding the evolution of senescence. We used the long‐term data set from a contained, predator‐free population of individually marked Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis) to investigate how age‐related declines in survival are affected by early‐life investment in reproduction and early‐life environmental conditions. The disposable soma hypothesis predicts that higher investment in reproduction, or experiencing harsh conditions during early life, will lead to an earlier onset, and an increased rate, of senescence. We found that both sexes showed similar age‐related declines in late‐life survival consistent with senescence. Individuals that started breeding at a later age showed a delay in survival senescence, but this later onset of breeding did not result in a less rapid decline in late‐life survival. Although survival senescence was not directly related to early‐life environmental conditions, age of first breeding increased with natal food availability. Therefore, early‐life food availability may affect senescence by influencing age of first breeding. The disposable soma hypothesis of senescence is supported by delayed senescence in individuals that started breeding at a later age and therefore invested less in reproduction.