Environmental and topographic drivers of amphibian phylogenetic diversity and endemism in the Iberian Peninsula

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes driving biodiversity patterns and allowing their persistence is of utmost importance. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain spatial diversity patterns, including water-energy availability, habitat heterogeneity, and historical climatic refugia. The main goal of this study is to identify if general spatial drivers of species diversity patterns of phylogenetic diversity (PD) and phylogenetic endemism (PE) at the global scale are also predictive of PD and PE at regional scales, using Iberian amphibians as a case study. Our main hypothesis assumes that topography along with contemporary and historical climate are drivers of phylogenetic diversity and endemism, but that the strength of these predictors may be weaker at the regional scale than it tends to be at the global scale. We mapped spatial patterns of Iberian amphibians' phylogenetic diversity and endemism, using previously published phylogenetic and distribution data. Furthermore, we compiled spatial data on topographic and climatic variables related to the water-energy availability, topography, and historical climatic instability hypotheses. To test our hypotheses, we used Spatial Autoregressive Models and selected the best model to explain diversity patterns based on Akaike Information Criterion. Our results show that, out of the variables tested in our study, water-energy availability and historical climate instability are the most important drivers of amphibian diversity in Iberia. However, as predicted, the strength of these predictors in our case study is weaker than it tends to be at global scales. Thus, additional drivers should also be investigated and we suggest caution when interpreting these predictors as surrogates for different components of diversity.     

Climatic Niche Dynamics and Its Role in the Insular Endemism of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anolis</Emphasis> Lizards

Insular systems are usually characterized by have a high species diversity, endemism, and evolutionary uniqueness. Although ecological and evolutionary factors shaping insular diversity and endemism are relatively well established, there is a little understanding about climatic niche dynamics for many insular adaptive radiations. Here, we evaluate the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in an iconic insular radiation of lizards. By using an extensive dataset of phylogenetic and coarse-grain climatic niches, we evaluated phylogenetic niche divergence and niche conservatism across temporal and spatial scales in the Caribbean Anolis lizard radiation. We found several instances of niche shifts during the anole radiation across islands. Many of these niche shifts converged to similar climatic regimes between different islands. Furthermore, we find evidence that single-island endemic species are more limited by low suitability of climatic conditions outside its native islands than oceanic barriers due to the high climatic heterogeneity observed at least between Greater Antillean islands. These results suggest that within-lineage climatic niche conservatism has been prevalent in short time scales and likely played a role driving the exceptional insular endemism observed today.     

Latitudinal patterns of forest ecosystem stability across spatial scales as affected by biodiversity and environmental heterogeneity

Our planet is facing a variety of serious threats from climate change that are unfolding unevenly across the globe. Uncovering the spatial patterns of ecosystem stability is important for predicting the responses of ecological processes and biodiversity patterns to climate change. However, the understanding of the latitudinal pattern of ecosystem stability across scales and of the underlying ecological drivers is still very limited. Accordingly, this study examines the latitudinal patterns of ecosystem stability at the local and regional spatial scale using a natural assembly of forest metacommunities that are distributed over a large temperate forest region, considering a range of potential environmental drivers. We found that the stability of regional communities (regional stability) and asynchronous dynamics among local communities (spatial asynchrony) both decreased with increasing latitude, whereas the stability of local communities (local stability) did not. We tested a series of hypotheses that potentially drive the spatial patterns of ecosystem stability, and found that although the ecological drivers of biodiversity, climatic history, resource conditions, climatic stability, and environmental heterogeneity varied with latitude, latitudinal patterns of ecosystem stability at multiple scales were affected by biodiversity and environmental heterogeneity. In particular, α diversity is positively associated with local stability, while β diversity is positively associated with spatial asynchrony, although both relationships are weak. Our study provides the first evidence that latitudinal patterns of the temporal stability of naturally assembled forest metacommunities across scales are driven by biodiversity and environmental heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that the preservation of plant biodiversity within and between forest communities and the maintenance of heterogeneous landscapes can be crucial to buffer forest ecosystems at higher latitudes from the faster and more intense negative impacts of climate change in the future.     

Long‐term successional forest dynamics: species and community responses to climatic variability

Question: Are trees sensitive to climatic variability, and do tree species differ in their responses to climatic variability? Does sensitivity of forest communities to climatic variability depend on stand composition? Location: Mixed young forest at Walker Branch Watershed near Oak Ridge, East Tennessee, USA. Methods: Using a long‐term dataset (1967–2006), we analyzed temporal forest dynamics at the tree and species level, and community dynamics for forest stands that differed in initial species composition (i.e., chestnut oak, oak–hickory, pine, and yellow poplar stands). Using summer drought and growing season temperature as defined climate drivers, we evaluated relationships between forest dynamics and climate across levels of organization. Results: Over the four‐decade study period, forest communities underwent successional change and substantially increased in biomass. Variation in summer drought and growing season temperature contributed to temporal biomass dynamics for some tree species, but not for others. Stand‐level responses to climatic variability were related to the responses of component species, except in pine stands. Pinus echinata, the dominant species in pine stands, decreased over time due to periodic outbreaks of pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis). These outbreaks at Walker Branch could not be directly related to climatic conditions. Conclusions: The results indicate that sensitivity of developing forests to climatic variability is stand type‐dependent, and hence is a function of species composition. However, in the long term, direct effects of climatic variability on forest dynamics may be small relative to autogenic successional processes or climate‐related insect outbreaks. Empirical studies testing for interactions between forest succession and climatic variability are needed.     

Environmental heterogeneity and biotic interactions mediate climate impacts on tropical forest regeneration

Predicting the fate of tropical forests under a changing climate requires understanding species responses to climatic variability and extremes. Seedlings may be particularly vulnerable to climatic stress given low stored resources and undeveloped roots; they also portend the potential effects of climate change on future forest composition. Here we use data for ca. 50,000 tropical seedlings representing 25 woody species to assess (i) the effects of interannual variation in rainfall and solar radiation between 2007 and 2016 on seedling survival over 9 years in a subtropical forest; and (ii) how spatial heterogeneity in three environmental factors—soil moisture, understory light, and conspecific neighborhood density—modulate these responses. Community‐wide seedling survival was not sensitive to interannual rainfall variability but interspecific variation in these responses was large, overwhelming the average community response. In contrast, community‐wide responses to solar radiation were predominantly positive. Spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture and conspecific density were the predominant and most consistent drivers of seedling survival, with the majority of species exhibiting greater survival at low conspecific densities and positive or nonlinear responses to soil moisture. This environmental heterogeneity modulated impacts of rainfall and solar radiation. Negative conspecific effects were amplified during rainy years and at dry sites, whereas the positive effects of radiation on survival were more pronounced for seedlings existing at high understory light levels. These results demonstrate that environmental heterogeneity is not only the main driver of seedling survival in this forest but also plays a central role in buffering or exacerbating impacts of climate fluctuations on forest regeneration. Since seedlings represent a key bottleneck in the demographic cycle of trees, efforts to predict the long‐term effects of a changing climate on tropical forests must take into account this environmental heterogeneity and how its effects on regeneration dynamics play out in long‐term stand dynamics.     

Faunal histories from Holocene ancient DNA

Recent studies using ancient DNA have been instrumental in advancing understanding of the impact of Holocene climate change on biodiversity. Ancient DNA has been used to track demography, migration and diversity, and is providing new insights into the long-term dynamics of species and population distributions. The Holocene is key to understanding how the past has impacted on the present, as it bridges the gap between contemporary phylogeographic studies and those with inference on Pleistocene patterns, based on ancient DNA studies. Here, we examine the major patterns of Holocene faunal population dynamics and connectivity; highlighting the dynamic nature of species and population responses to Holocene climatic change, thereby providing an 'analogue' for understanding potential impacts of future change.     

Refugia within refugia – patterns in endemism and genetic divergence are linked to Late Quaternary climate stability in the Iberian Peninsula

In Europe, southern peninsulas served as major refugia during Pleistocene cold periods. However, growing evidence has revealed complex patterns of glacial survival within these southern regions, with multiple glacial refugia within each larger refugial area. We investigated the extent to which patterns of endemism and phylogeographic are concordant across animal species in the Iberian Peninsula, one of the most important unglaciated areas in Europe during the Pleistocene, can be explained in terms of climatic stability. We found that historical climatic stability (notably climate velocity measures integrating macroclimatic shifts with local spatial topoclimate gradients) was often among the most important predictors of endemic species richness for different taxonomic groups using models that also incorporated measures of modern climate. Furthermore, for some taxonomic groups, climatic stability was also correlated with patterns of spatial concordance in interpopulation genetic divergence across multiple taxa, and private haplotypes were more frequently found in relatively stable areas. Overall, our results suggest that both endemism patterns and cross‐taxa concordant phylogeographic patterns across the Iberian Peninsula to some extent are linked to spatial variation in Late Quaternary climate stability, in agreement with the proposed ‘refugia‐within‐refugia’ scenario. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 113 , 13–28.     

A test of multiple hypotheses for the species richness gradient of South American owls

Many mechanisms have been proposed to explain broad scale spatial patterns in species richness. In this paper, we evaluate five explanations for geographic gradients in species richness, using South American owls as a model. We compared the explanatory power of contemporary climate, landcover diversity, spatial climatic heterogeneity, evolutionary history, and area. An important aspect of our analyses is that very different hypotheses, such as history and area, can be quantified at the same observation scale and, consequently can be incorporated into a single analytical framework. Both area effects and owl phylogenetic history were poorly associated with richness, whereas contemporary climate, climatic heterogeneity at the mesoscale and landcover diversity explained ca. 53% of the variation in species richness. We conclude that both climate and environmental heterogeneity should be retained as plausible explanations for the diversity gradient. Turnover rates and scaling effects, on the other hand, although perhaps useful for detecting faunal changes and beta diversity at local and regional scales, are not strong explanations for the owl diversity gradient.     

Ice ages leave genetic diversity ‘hotspots’ in Europe but not in Eastern North America

After the last glacial cycle, temperate European trees migrated northward, experiencing genetic bottlenecks and founder effects, which left high haplotype endemism in southern populations and clines in genetic diversity northward. These patterns are thought to be ubiquitous across temperate forests, and are therefore used to anticipate the potential genetic consequences of future warming. We compared existing and new phylogeographic data sets (chloroplast DNA) from 14 woody taxa in Eastern North America (ENA) to data sets from 21 ecologically similar European species to test for common impacts of Quaternary climate swings on genetic diversity across diverse taxa and between continents. Unlike their European counterparts, ENA taxa do not share common southern centres of haplotype endemism and they generally maintain high genetic diversity even at their northern range limits. Differences between the genetic impacts of Quaternary climate cycles across continents suggest refined lessons for managing genetic diversity in today's warming world.     

Biogeography and speciation of a direct developing frog from the coastal arid zone of Western Australia

Within the southwestern Australian biodiversity hotspot, the Shark Bay region displays high levels of plant and animal endemism, particularly in the herpetofauna. The region has been subjected to dramatic climatic fluctuations and has been geologically active from the Late Miocene to the present. The myobatrachid frog Arenophryne rotunda, a Shark Bay endemic, provides an ideal opportunity to examine the relative effects of fluctuating climates and geological activity on the biota of Shark Bay. A comprehensive phylogeographic analysis of A. rotunda, based on data comprising 1154 bp of the mitochondrial gene ND2, is presented. My results demonstrate a major genetic break that divides this species at the northern edge of the Victorian Plateau into northern and southern species lineages, dating to the Late Miocene, with a further division of the southern species lineage across the Murchison Gorge dating to the Plio-Pleistocene border. Both of these periods are related to prominent geological activity and climatic shifts in the Shark Bay region. Interpretation of phylogeographic results point to the prominent role of fluctuating Pleistocene climates and associated coastal landscape evolution in the generation of phylogeographic structure within the distinct A. rotunda species lineages. Similar processes have been invoked to explain the diversity of other Shark Bay biota.     

Specialization in plant-hummingbird networks is associated with species richness, contemporary precipitation and quaternary climate-change velocity

Large-scale geographical patterns of biotic specialization and the underlying drivers are poorly understood, but it is widely believed that climate plays an important role in determining specialization. As climate-driven range dynamics should diminish local adaptations and favor generalization, one hypothesis is that contemporary biotic specialization is determined by the degree of past climatic instability, primarily Quaternary climate-change velocity. Other prominent hypotheses predict that either contemporary climate or species richness affect biotic specialization. To gain insight into geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization and its drivers, we use network analysis to determine the degree of specialization in plant-hummingbird mutualistic networks sampled at 31 localities, spanning a wide range of climate regimes across the Americas. We found greater biotic specialization at lower latitudes, with latitude explaining 20-22% of the spatial variation in plant-hummingbird specialization. Potential drivers of specialization--contemporary climate, Quaternary climate-change velocity, and species richness--had superior explanatory power, together explaining 53-64% of the variation in specialization. Notably, our data provides empirical evidence for the hypothesized roles of species richness, contemporary precipitation and Quaternary climate-change velocity as key predictors of biotic specialization, whereas contemporary temperature and seasonality seem unimportant in determining specialization. These results suggest that both ecological and evolutionary processes at Quaternary time scales can be important in driving large-scale geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization, at least for co-evolved systems such as plant-hummingbird networks.     

The importance of temporal climate variability for spatial patterns in plant diversity

Spatial variation in absolute climatic conditions (means, maxima or minima) is widely acknowledged to play a fundamental role in controlling species diversity patterns. In contrast, while evidence is accumulating that variability around mean climatic conditions may also influence species coexistence and persistence, the importance of spatial variation in temporal climatic variability for species diversity is still largely unknown. We used a unique dataset capturing fine‐scale spatial heterogeneity in temperature variability across 2490 plots in southeast Australia to examine the comparative strength of absolute temperature and temperature variability in explaining spatial variation in plant diversity. Across all plots combined and in three of five forest types, temperature variability emerged as the better predictor of diversity. In all but one forest type, diversity also exhibited either a significant unimodal or positive linear correlation with temperature variability. This relationship is consistent with theory that predicts diversity will initially increase along a climate variability gradient due to temporal niche partitioning, but at an intermediary point, may decline as the risk of stochastic extinction exceeds competitive stabilization. These findings provide critical empirical evidence of a linkage between spatial variation in temporal climate variability and plant species diversity, and in light of changing climate variability regimes, highlight the need for ecologists to expand their purview beyond absolutes and averages.     

Molecular evidence for glacial refugia of mountain plants in the European Alps

Many mountain ranges have been strongly glaciated during the Quaternary ice ages, and the locations of glacial refugia of mountain plants have been debated for a long time. A series of detailed molecular studies, investigating intraspecific genetic variation of mountain plants in the European Alps, now allows for a first synopsis. A comparison of the phylogeographic patterns with geological and palaeoenvironmental data demonstrates that glacial refugia were located along the southwestern, southern, eastern and northern border of the Alps. Additional glacial refugia were present in central Alpine areas, where high-elevation plants survived the last glaciation on ice-free mountain tops. The observed intraspecific phylogeographies suggest general patterns of glacial survival, which conform to well-known centres of Alpine species diversity and endemism. This implies that evolutionary or biogeographic processes induced by climatic fluctuations act on gene and species diversity in a similar way.     

Evolutionary processes,dispersal limitation and climatic history shape current diversity patterns of European dragonflies

We investigated the effects of contemporary and historical factors on the spatial variation of European dragonfly diversity. Specifically, we tested to what extent patterns of endemism and phylogenetic diversity of European dragonfly assemblages are structured by 1) phylogenetic conservatism of thermal adaptations and 2) differences in the ability of post‐glacial recolonization by species adapted to running waters (lotic) and still waters (lentic). We investigated patterns of dragonfly diversity using digital distribution maps and a phylogeny of 122 European dragonfly species, which we constructed by combining taxonomic and molecular data. We calculated total taxonomic distinctiveness and mean pairwise distances across 4192 50 × 50 km equal‐area grid cells as measures of phylogenetic diversity. We compared species richness with corrected weighted endemism and standardized effect sizes of mean pairwise distances or residuals of total taxonomic distinctiveness to identify areas with higher or lower phylogenetic diversity than expected by chance. Broken‐line regression was used to detect breakpoints in diversity–latitude relationships. Dragonfly species richness peaked in central Europe, whereas endemism and phylogenetic diversity decreased from warm areas in the south‐west to cold areas in the north‐east and with an increasing proportion of lentic species. Except for species richness, all measures of diversity were consistently higher in formerly unglaciated areas south of the 0°C isotherm during the Last Glacial Maximum than in formerly glaciated areas. These results indicate that the distributions of dragonfly species in Europe were shaped by both phylogenetic conservatism of thermal adaptations and differences between lentic and lotic species in the ability of post‐glacial recolonization/dispersal in concert with the climatic history of the continent. The complex diversity patterns of European dragonflies provide an example of how integrating climatic and evolutionary history with contemporary ecological data can improve our understanding of the processes driving the geographical variation of biological diversity.     

Latitudinal gradients in butterfly population variability are influenced by landscape heterogeneity

The variability of populations over time is positively associated with their risk of local extinction. Previous work has shown that populations at the high‐latitude boundary of species’ ranges show higher inter‐annual variability, consistent with increased sensitivity and exposure to adverse climatic conditions. However, patterns of population variability at both high‐ and low‐latitude species range boundaries have not yet been concurrently examined. Here, we assess the inter‐annual population variability of 28 butterfly species between 1994 and 2009 at 351 and 18 sites in the United Kingdom and Catalonia, Spain, respectively. Local population variability is examined with respect to the position of the species’ bioclimatic envelopes (i.e. whether the population falls within areas of the ‘core’ climatic suitability or is a climatically ‘marginal’ population), and in relation to local landscape heterogeneity, which may influence these range location – population dynamic relationships. We found that butterfly species consistently show latitudinal gradients in population variability, with increased variability in the more northerly UK. This pattern is even more marked for southerly distributed species with ‘marginal’ climatic suitability in the UK but ‘core’ climatic suitability in Catalonia. In addition, local landscape heterogeneity did influence these range location – population dynamic relationships. Habitat heterogeneity was associated with dampened population dynamics, especially for populations in the UK. Our results suggest that promoting habitat heterogeneity may promote the persistence of populations at high‐latitude range boundaries, which may potentially aid northwards expansion under climate warming. We did not find evidence that population variability increases towards southern range boundaries. Sample sizes for this region were low, but there was tentative evidence, in line with previous ecological theory, that local landscape heterogeneity may promote persistence in these retracting low‐latitude range boundary populations.     

Zoogeographical regions and geospatial patterns of phylogenetic diversity and endemism of New World bats

The analysis of regional scale patterns of diversity allows insights into the processes that have shaped modern biodiversity at the macro‐scale. Previous analyses studying biogeographic regionalisation across different high‐level taxa have shown similar trends at a global scale. However, incorporating phylogenetic methods when comparing biogeographic regionalisation between subgroups facilitates identification of mechanisms leading to the biogeographic distribution of specific taxa. We analysed the spatial trends of phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism of 325 species of New World bats, using updated range maps of the modern distributions. These analyses showed phylogeographic signals that reflect the different evolutionary histories of these families. Zoogeographical zones were detected based on range‐weighted phylogenetic turnover. Values of high phylogenetic diversity and endemism were distributed differently across families, suggesting niche conservatism, but a general latitudinal trend of diversity was evident across taxa. Overall, two main bioregions were shared across New World bat taxa (Nearctic and Neotropical), with two additional subregions (Andean and La Platan). We found strong support for an additional transitional zone in the Pacific coast of South America for Emballonuridae and Molossidae. Differences in regionalisation across families indicate that niche conservatism, in situ diversification and dispersal ability are major drivers for the regionalisation of New World bats, within a dual‐centre of diversification scenario. We also found strong inter‐familial support for an independent Caribbean biogeographic region.     

Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction

Certain general facets of biotic response to climate change, such as shifts in phenology and geographic distribution, are well characterized; however, it is not clear whether the observed similarity of responses across taxa will extend to variation in other population‐level processes. We examined population response to climatic variation using long‐term incidence data (collected over 42 years) encompassing 149 butterfly species and considerable habitat diversity (10 sites along an elevational gradient from sea level to over 2,700 m in California). Population responses were characterized by extreme heterogeneity that was not attributable to differences in species composition among sites. These results indicate that habitat heterogeneity might be a buffer against climate change and highlight important questions about mechanisms maintaining interpopulation differences in responses to weather. Despite overall heterogeneity of response, population dynamics were accurately predicted by our model for many species at each site. However, the overall correlation between observed and predicted incidence in a cross validation analysis was moderate (Pearson's r = 0.23, SE 0.01), and 97% of observed data fell within the predicted 95% credible intervals. Prediction was most successful for more abundant species as well as for sites with lower annual turnover. Population‐level heterogeneity in response to climate variation and the limits of our predictive power highlight the challenges for a future of increasing climatic variability.     

Genetic diversity of a dominant C4 grass is altered with increased precipitation variability

Climate change has the potential to alter the genetic diversity of plant populations with consequences for community dynamics and ecosystem processes. Recent research focused on changes in climatic means has found evidence of decreased precipitation amounts reducing genetic diversity. However, increased variability in climatic regimes is also predicted with climate change, but the effects of this aspect of climate change on genetic diversity have yet to be investigated. After 10 years of experimentally increased intra-annual variability in growing season precipitation regimes, we report that the number of genotypes of the dominant C₄ grass, Andropogon gerardii Vitman, has been significantly reduced in native tallgrass prairie compared with unmanipulated prairie. However, individuals showed a different pattern of genomic similarity with increased precipitation variability resulting in greater genome dissimilarity among individuals when compared to unmanipulated prairie. Further, we found that genomic dissimilarity was positively correlated with aboveground productivity in this system. The increased genomic dissimilarity among individuals in the altered treatment alongside evidence for a positive correlation of genomic dissimilarity with phenotypic variation suggests ecological sorting of genotypes may be occurring via niche differentiation. Overall, we found effects of more variable precipitation regimes on population-level genetic diversity were complex, emphasizing the need to look beyond genotype numbers for understanding the impacts of climate change on genetic diversity. Recognition that future climate change may alter aspects of genetic diversity in different ways suggests possible mechanisms by which plant populations may be able to retain a diversity of traits in the face of declining biodiversity.     

Mean conditions predict salt marsh plant community diversity and stability better than environmental variability

Environmental variability and the frequency of extreme events are predicted to increase in future climate scenarios; however, the role of fluctuations in shaping community composition, diversity and stability is not well understood. Identifying current patterns of association between measures of community stability and climatic means and variability will help elucidate the ways in which altered variability and mean conditions may change communities in the future. Salt marshes provide essential ecosystem services and are increasingly threatened by sea‐level rise, land‐use change, eutrophication and predator loss, yet the effects of temporal environmental variation on salt marshes remain unknown. We synthesized long‐term plant community monitoring data from 11 sites on both coasts of the United States. We used an information‐theoretic approach and linear models to determine the associations among long‐term mean conditions, interannual environmental variability, and plant community stability and diversity. We found that salt marsh community stability and diversity were more strongly related to long‐term means of temperature and precipitation than to interannual variation. Warm and wet environments had fewer species and less turnover among years. Our results suggest that communities in cool, dry environments may be more resilient to climate warming due to greater species richness and turnover. Mean conditions are sufficient to predict contemporary patterns of salt marsh plant community dynamics, but environmental variability may have stronger impacts as it increases with climate change.     

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient‐protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species’ climate‐driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping‐stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.